CN110264032B - Method for acquiring evaluation result of direct current distribution network planning scheme - Google Patents

Method for acquiring evaluation result of direct current distribution network planning scheme Download PDF

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CN110264032B
CN110264032B CN201910381019.8A CN201910381019A CN110264032B CN 110264032 B CN110264032 B CN 110264032B CN 201910381019 A CN201910381019 A CN 201910381019A CN 110264032 B CN110264032 B CN 110264032B
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distribution network
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CN110264032A (en
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罗志刚
韦钢
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Shanghai University of Electric Power
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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    • G06Q10/063Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0637Strategic management or analysis, e.g. setting a goal or target of an organisation; Planning actions based on goals; Analysis or evaluation of effectiveness of goals
    • G06Q10/06375Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06Electricity, gas or water supply
    • YGENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y04INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
    • Y04SSYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S10/00Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y04S10/50Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for acquiring an evaluation result of a direct current distribution network planning scheme, which comprises the following steps: 1. constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system of a direct-current power distribution network planning scheme, and establishing a calculation mathematical model of each index; 2. constructing a comprehensive interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix according to the comprehensive evaluation index system and the index calculated value of the planning scheme, and checking the consistency of the comprehensive interval intuitionistic judgment matrix; 3. and processing the constructed interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix based on the foreground theory and the MYCIN uncertainty factors to obtain a comprehensive evaluation value, and sequencing all schemes according to a comprehensive evaluation value maximization principle to obtain an evaluation result of the planning scheme. Compared with the prior art, the method solves the problem of insufficient mining of uncertain information, reduces the uncertainty of subjective knowledge in decision making, improves the identification degree of the evaluation result, and enables the decision result to be more practical and more credible.

Description

Method for acquiring evaluation result of direct current distribution network planning scheme
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of direct-current power distribution network planning, in particular to a method for acquiring a direct-current power distribution network planning scheme evaluation result.
Background
In recent years, with a large number of diverse dc loads and distributed power sources (Distributed Generation, DG) connected to a distribution network, medium voltage dc power distribution technology has become a current research hotspot. The method for scientifically and reasonably evaluating the planning scheme of the direct-current power distribution network has important practical significance. The optimization of the direct current distribution network planning scheme is a process comprising the steps of establishing a comprehensive evaluation index system, evaluating and sequencing the to-be-selected scheme by using a proper evaluation method, and finally selecting the optimal planning scheme.
At the current stage, comprehensive evaluation of a complex direct current power distribution system faces a plurality of difficulties. 1) For an actual direct current power distribution planning scheme, technical evaluation is required to be obtained on the whole, and a fine quantization index is required to be obtained on a key point. Therefore, how to scientifically and reasonably select the complete, systematic, macroscopic and microscopic quantitative evaluation indexes has important significance. 2) The comprehensive evaluation methods of the traditional alternating-current power distribution network planning scheme mainly comprise an analytic hierarchy process, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, a data enveloping method and the like, but the methods have obvious defects in practical application, such as: evaluating the imperfection of the index system; unreasonable weight determination; the ambiguity judged by the expert is not enough in description; undermining of uncertain information, and the like.
At present, the comprehensive evaluation of the planning scheme of the direct current power distribution network is rarely studied, and the difficulty is mainly that: how to establish an index system for effectively evaluating the comprehensive performance of the direct current active distribution network; how to comprehensively consider randomness and uncertainty brought by distributed energy sources and consider ambiguity and risk tendency judged by experts; how to simplify the calculation of the complex problem of comprehensive evaluation of the direct current main distribution network planning scheme.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art and provide a method for acquiring the evaluation result of the direct current distribution network planning scheme.
The aim of the invention can be achieved by the following technical scheme:
a method for acquiring evaluation results of a direct current distribution network planning scheme comprises the following steps:
firstly, constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system of a direct-current power distribution network planning scheme, and establishing a calculation mathematical model of each index.
The comprehensive evaluation index system of the direct-current power distribution network planning scheme comprises reliability indexes for reflecting the capability of a planned power grid to keep continuous power supply for users, power supply capability indexes for reflecting the power supply capability of a direct-current power distribution system, economic indexes for reflecting the planning cost and benefit of the direct-current power distribution network, grid coordination indexes for measuring the direct-current power distribution network planning and alternating-current power distribution network, distributed power supply configuration DG (distributed generation) rationality indexes for measuring the superiority and inferiority of the distributed power supply configuration in the direct-current power distribution system, environment protection indexes for reflecting the damage degree of the direct-current power distribution network planning scheme to the environment and adaptability indexes for reflecting the adaptability of the direct-current power distribution network planning scheme to external various factors.
The economic index comprises an investment estimation index and an operation management maintenance cost index, the operation management maintenance cost index comprises annual operation maintenance cost and annual transmission loss cost, and the expression is as follows:
in the formula :Cop Maintenance costs for annual operation; r is (r) op Taking 1.8% of annual maintenance rate; c (C) ic C is the total engineering cost tr Cost for annual transmission loss; k is the network loss rate; p (P) av Is the annual average load; s is electricity selling price; h is the number of hours in 1 year.
The DG configuration rationality index comprises a voltage support index, a voltage fluctuation index and a DG utilization rate, and the expression is as follows:
in the formula :IVS Is a voltage support index, N l W is the number of faults selected Fl For different fault weight coefficients, N k To the total number of samples after the selected fault Fl, W k For sampling instant t k N is the number of buses in the network, W bi Is the weight coefficient of the bus i, V i (t k ) For sampling instant t k Voltage of I TSI As sensitivity coefficient, N k W is the total sampling number k For sampling instant t k N is the number of buses in the network, W bi As the weight coefficient of the bus i, deltaP is the variation of DG output, V i (t k ,P 0 +ΔP) is the voltage of bus I at sampling instant under DG output variation, I VF Voltage fluctuation index delta P of DC distribution network connected to DG + Indicating an increase in DG output, ΔP - Indicating reduced DG output, K DG The DG utilization rate is used; n (N) dg The number of DGs in the direct current distribution network planning scheme is calculated; p (P) i dg The actual output power of the ith DG; p (P) i dgN Is the rated output power of the ith DG.
And secondly, constructing a comprehensive interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix according to the comprehensive evaluation index system and the index calculation value of the planning scheme, and checking the consistency of the comprehensive interval intuitionistic judgment matrix.
The expression of the comprehensive interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix Y is as follows:
wherein E is the number of decision makers, A e The expression of the interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix for the e decision maker is as follows:
wherein ,the scoring interval of the ith scheme under the jth index is considered by the e decision maker, and the expression is as follows:
in the formula ,judging the affirmative degree interval of the optimal scheme of the scheme i under the j index for the e decision maker,and judging the negation degree interval of the optimal scheme of the scheme i under the j index for the e decision maker.
The specific content for checking the consistency of the comprehensive interval intuitionistic judgment matrix is as follows:
the consistency of the comprehensive interval intuitionistic judgment matrix Y is judged by constructing a compatibility index SI, and the expression is as follows:
in the formula ,the membership degree upper and lower limits of the matrix A are respectively +.>The upper limit and the lower limit of membership degree of the matrix Y are respectively indicated by an upper label L, H;
if matrix Y and all A e The following condition is satisfied, the consistency of the interval intuitionistic fuzzy matrix Y is considered acceptable:
SI(A e ,Y)≤τ
wherein: τ is a threshold value of the compatibility index;
if SI (A) e Y) > τ, the consistency of the interval intuitionistic fuzzy matrix is considered to be unacceptable, and the comprehensive interval intuitionistic judgment matrix is corrected.
And thirdly, processing the interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix constructed in the second step based on a foreground theory and a MYCIN uncertain factor to obtain a comprehensive evaluation value, and sequencing all schemes according to a comprehensive evaluation value maximization principle to obtain an evaluation result of the planning scheme. The method specifically comprises the following steps:
1) Based on the foreground theory, the interval intuitionistic judgment matrix Y is converted into a scoring function matrix by using the interval intuitionistic fuzzy number, and a foreground decision matrix is obtained. The expression of the foreground decision matrix W is:
W=(w ij ) m×n
in the formula ,wij For the foreground values of each scheme under different indexes, the expression is as follows:
w ij =C(s ij )
wherein ,C(sij ) For the calculation of the foreground theory, the expression is as follows:
2) And combining the foreground theory and the relation between the scoring function and the uncertain factors, and replacing the MYCIN uncertain factor matrix by using a foreground decision matrix to obtain the trust degree of the optimal scheme, thereby obtaining a substantial uncertain factor decision matrix.
Using the foreground decision matrix w= (W ij ) m×n Replacing the MYCIN uncertainty factor matrix:
CF(h i /e j )=w ij
wherein CF (h) i /e j ) In index I j Scheme X below i For the trust of the optimal scheme, CF (h i /e j )∈[-1,1];
Index I j The confidence level of (2) is:
CF(e j )=1-DOI(I j )
in the formula :
wherein: DOI (I) j ) Is the index I j Degree of uncertainty of q order, r ij The gray average value association degree;
obtaining scheme X from the above two modes i At each index I j Under the substantial uncertainty factor CF T (h i /e j ):
CF T (h i /e j )=CF(h i /e j )*CF(e j )
And further obtaining a substantial uncertainty factor decision matrix as:
CF T =(CF T (h i /e j )) m×n
3) And fusing the evidence information of the decision matrix of the substantial uncertain factors to obtain the final substantial uncertain factors of each planning scheme as comprehensive evaluation values, and judging the superiority and inferiority of the scheme aiming at the final substantial uncertain factors of each planning scheme. The final calculation of the substantial uncertainty factor is:
when CF is T (h/e 1 ,e 2 ,…,e m ) When =0, the objection and support comments of the scheme are the same, and the scheme is excellentThe inferior cannot be judged; when CF is T (h/e 1 ,e 2 ,…,e m ) When=1, this indicates that the supporting opinion for the scheme is dominant, the scheme is relatively superior; when CF is T (h/e 1 ,e 2 ,…,e m ) When = -1, the objection to this scheme is represented to take absolute dominance, which is relatively poor; and selecting an optimal direct current power distribution network planning scheme according to a principle of maximizing the substantial uncertainty factors.
4) And acquiring a reliability function value of the overall uncertainty, and judging the uncertainty of subjective knowledge of a decision maker. The expression of the reliability function value of the overall uncertainty is:
in the formula :X1 ,X 2 ,…,X m For each alternative planning scheme, the smaller the reliability function value of the overall uncertainty is, the smaller the uncertainty of subjective knowledge of a decision maker in the conclusion is, and the more reliable the conclusion is.
5) And sequencing all the schemes according to the comprehensive evaluation value maximization principle to obtain the evaluation result of the planning scheme.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages:
1. the comprehensive evaluation index system established by the method comprehensively considers the characteristics of direct current power distribution network planning and the uncertain influence caused by DG, supplements evaluation indexes such as grid coordination, DG configuration rationality and the like, has simple and easy calculation, and can comprehensively reflect the overall performance of the direct current power distribution network from different angles;
2. the invention adopts the interval intuitionistic fuzzy number to describe the judgment opinion of the decision maker, more comprehensively delineates the preference information of the decision maker, and can embody the uncertainty of subjective judgment; the interval intuitionistic fuzzy matrix is processed by introducing a prospect theory and MYCIN uncertainty factors, so that the problem of insufficient mining of uncertain information is solved, the uncertainty of subjective knowledge in decision making is reduced, the identification degree of an evaluation result is improved, and the decision making result is more practical and more credible.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a comprehensive evaluation index system established in the method of the invention;
fig. 2 is a confidence score of each evaluation index in the embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention will now be described in detail with reference to the drawings and specific examples. It will be apparent that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the invention. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the present invention without making any inventive effort, shall fall within the scope of the present invention.
(1) Interval intuitional fuzzy theory
The interval intuitionistic fuzzy theory is an extension of the traditional fuzzy theory. The interval intuitionistic fuzzy set is composed of information of three aspects of membership, non-membership and hesitation. Compared with the intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, three kinds of information in the interval intuitionistic fuzzy set are all represented in the form of interval numbers, so that the affirmative degree, the negative degree and the hesitation degree of a decision maker can be comprehensively represented. The interval intuitionistic fuzzy theory is particularly flexible and practical when dealing with ambiguity and uncertainty problems.
Definition: let X be a non-null set, then an interval intuitional fuzzy set a on X is:
wherein , and />The upper and lower limits of the interval are respectively indicated by the superscript H, L, and the conditions are satisfied:
and is called:
the element X in X belongs to the hesitation interval of a.
The interval intuitionistic fuzzy theory is applied to comprehensive decision of the direct-current power distribution network planning scheme, so that the ambiguity and uncertainty of decision makers in judgment can be clearly expressed, and the determination of the optimal planning scheme is more objective and reasonable.
(2) Theory of prospect
The prospect theory is proposed by Kahneman et al and is an important progress of random decision theory. The prospect theory is to replace expected value in expected utility theory by adopting prospect value, and subjective preference and risk attitude of a decision maker can be considered, so that the decision result is more in line with actual situation. The foreground theory considers that the decision maker in the real decision is limited in rationality, and the preference of the decision maker can be changed along with the change of external factors. When benefits occur, a decision maker often avoids risks, and the decision maker cost function is a concave function; when loss occurs, the decision maker often presents a risk preference, where the cost function is a convex function. Where the profit and loss are relative values to criteria set by the decision maker.
The foreground cost function is:
wherein: z is the difference of the schema property relative to the reference point. Delta and beta are risk preference and risk aversion coefficients, respectively, sigma is a loss avoidance coefficient, and sigma > 1 indicates that the decision maker is more sensitive to loss. Decision maker populations are generally considered risk neutral.
Based on the theory, the invention relates to a method for acquiring the evaluation result of a direct current distribution network planning scheme, which comprises the following steps:
step one, constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system of a direct-current power distribution network planning scheme, and establishing a calculation mathematical model of each index. The specific contents are as follows:
the reasonable evaluation index system is a precondition for comprehensive decision making of the direct-current power distribution network planning scheme. The existing alternating current power distribution network planning scheme evaluation indexes are mainly concentrated on the aspects of economy and adequacy, lack of comprehensiveness, and are not suitable for being directly applied to direct current power distribution network planning scheme evaluation due to insufficient consideration of uncertainty factors. According to the special influence factors and uncertain factors in the direct-current power distribution network planning, a set of three-level evaluation system comprising indexes such as reliability, power supply capacity, economy, grid coordination, DG configuration rationality, environmental protection, adaptability and the like is established. As shown in fig. 1.
The selection of the index should meet the principles of comprehensiveness, objectivity and easy obtainment and calculation as much as possible. The comprehensive evaluation index system shown in fig. 1 includes consideration indexes in the conventional ac distribution network, and two indexes are supplemented at the same time: (a) Aiming at the characteristics of the grid frame of the direct current distribution network, the index for measuring the coordination of the direct current distribution network planning and the alternating current distribution network grid frame is newly added; (b) Aiming at uncertainty caused by DG, the indexes such as voltage support index, voltage fluctuation index and the like for measuring the influence of uncertainty caused by large-scale access of DG to a direct current power distribution system are newly added.
1) Reliability index
The reliability index reflects the ability of the planned grid to maintain continuous power for the user. The reliability index of the direct current distribution system needs to consider the reliability index of the load points concerned in the traditional distribution network, and the direct current equipment is mainly electronic and electromagnetic elements, so that the fault rate is high, the reliability evaluation index of the direct current transmission project is used as a reference, and the forced outage rate index is provided.
in the formula :λS-P For forced outage rates of a dc power distribution system,gamma, failure outage rate for subsystem S-P For the fault down time of the direct current power distribution system, < >>Representing the failure shutdown time of the series subsystem, wherein n is the number of nodes of the power distribution network, and +.>Indicating a fault shutdown time, and subscript i indicates the ith series subsystem.
2) Index of power supply capability
The power supply capacity of the direct current distribution system can be described by calculating the maximum load capacity, the maximum power supply distance and the network loss rate index of the system under the condition of maintaining the voltage and the power constraint of the system to be certain limits.
in the formula :SMLC The maximum load which can be borne by the direct current distribution network is set; n is the number of nodes of the power distribution network; s is S 0i The load basic value of the node i; λ is a multiple of node load increase; s is S Ni The reference value is incremented for the node load. L (L) max Representing the maximum power supply distance; u (U) N Is the rated voltage of the line; ΔU is the line allowed maximum voltage drop; r is the resistance of the unit length of the circuit; p is the load power; g u1 and Gu2 Is the loss factor. k is the network loss rate; deltaV ij Is the pressure drop between node i and node j; r is R ij The branch resistance value between the node i and the node j; s is S 0 Is the load base value.
3) Economic index
The economic index shows that the characteristics of lowest economic cost and highest benefit are pursued in the planning of the direct current power distribution network. The invention is described mainly by two cost-type indicators, namely investment estimation and operation management maintenance cost. The operation management maintenance cost mainly comprises annual operation maintenance cost and annual transmission loss cost.
in the formula :Cop Maintenance costs for annual operation; r is (r) op Taking 1.8% of annual maintenance rate; c (C) ic Is the total engineering cost. C (C) tr Cost for annual transmission loss: k is the network loss rate; p (P) av Is the annual average load; s is electricity selling price; h is the number of hours in 1 year.
4) Index of coordination of net rack
The grid coordination index describes the degree of interaction of the ac-dc system. The direct current distribution network is connected into the alternating current distribution network in different connection modes, the mutual influence degrees of the direct current distribution network are different, and the direct current distribution network can be described by using overvoltage and overcurrent multiple of another system bus when a certain system fails.
5) DG configuration rationality index
The DG configuration rationality index mainly reflects the merits of distributed power configuration in a dc power distribution system. The three indexes of voltage support index, voltage fluctuation index and DG utilization rate are introduced to measure in consideration of the uncertainty influence caused by DG access to the direct current distribution system.
in the formula :IVS Is a voltage support index, N l W is the number of faults selected Fl For different fault weight coefficients, N k Is the total number of samples, W, after the selected fault Fl k Representing the sampling instant t k N is the number of buses in the network, W bi Is the weight coefficient of the bus i, V i (t k ) For sampling instant t k Is set in the above-described voltage range. I TSI Is a sensitivity coefficient, i.e. the rate at which the voltage amplitude of the busbar changes with small changes in the injected DG power; n (N) k W is the total sampling number k Representing the sampling instant t k N is the number of buses in the network, W bi As the weight coefficient of the bus i, Δp represents the change in DG output, V i (t k ,P 0 +Δp) represents the voltage at sampling instant of bus i at DG out force variation. I VF The voltage fluctuation index of the direct current distribution network is accessed to DG; ΔP + Indicating an increase in DG output, ΔP Indicating a decrease in DG output. K (K) DG The DG utilization rate is used; n (N) dg The number of DGs in the direct current distribution network planning scheme is calculated; p (P) i dg Representing the actual output power of the ith DG; p (P) i dgN Indicating the rated output power of the ith DG.
6) Environmental protection index
The environmental protection index shows the degree of damage to the environment caused by the direct current distribution network planning scheme, such as the problems of occupation of land, line corridor, distributed power pollution and the like. Because the environmental index is difficult to quantify, the environmental index can only be judged by an expert, and the environmental index is a qualitative index.
7) Adaptability index
The adaptability index describes the adaptability of the direct current distribution network planning scheme to various external factors, such as load development adaptability, load type adaptability, expandable factors and the like. The adaptability index is difficult to quantify and is also a qualitative index.
And step two, constructing an interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix according to the comprehensive evaluation index system and the index calculation value of the planning scheme.
The specific contents include:
(2.1) constructing an interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix is the basis of the superiority and inferiority of the comparison scheme. However, at the current stage, there is no qualitative evaluation or standard table with evaluation scales corresponding to the interval intuitive blur number. The interval intuitional fuzzy number obtained by intuitional fuzzy number conversion is as follows:
in the formula , and />The element X in X belongs to the membership range and non-membership range of a, and the superscript H, L indicates the upper and lower limits of the range.
According to the correspondence table of qualitative evaluation and intuitive fuzzy number, the correspondence table is converted into interval intuitive fuzzy number according to the upper two formulas, and the correspondence table shown in table 1 is obtained.
Table 1 table for qualitative evaluation and correspondence of interval intuitionistic ambiguity
Assuming that E decision makers are shared, each decision maker respectively performs scoring on the given normalized scheme attribute matrix G according to the table 1 to form an interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix. Let the interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix formed by the e decision maker be:
wherein :
the above represents the scoring interval for the ith protocol under the jth index considered by the ith decision maker,indicating the affirmative degree interval of the expert's belief that scheme i is the optimal scheme under the jth index,/>Indicating the negative interval in which the expert considers that the scheme i is the optimal scheme under the j-th index.
Assuming that the intuitive fuzzy judgment matrix of the comprehensive interval is Y, weighting calculation is carried out on the reference opinions given by E experts:
in order to obtain a reasonable decision result, the consistency of the comprehensive interval intuitional judgment matrix Y needs to be checked. A determination by constructing a compatibility index SI is proposed.
If matrix Y and all A e The following condition is satisfied, the consistency of the interval intuitionistic fuzzy matrix Y is considered acceptable:
SI(A e ,Y)≤τ
wherein: τ is a threshold of the compatibility index, and is typically τ=0.003.
Conversely, when SI (A) e When Y) is larger than tau, the consistency of the interval intuitional fuzzy matrix is considered to be unacceptable, and at the moment, the interval intuitional judgment matrix is appropriately corrected to ensure that the consistency can be acceptable.
And thirdly, introducing a foreground theory and MYCIN uncertain factor processing interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix to obtain a comprehensive evaluation value, and sequencing all schemes according to a comprehensive evaluation value maximization principle.
In order to reduce uncertainty of subjective knowledge in decision making and solve the problem of insufficient mining of uncertain information and improve decision level, the invention adopts combination of a foreground theory and MYCIN uncertain factors to process an interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix.
(3.1) construction of a foreground decision matrix:
for the interval intuitionistic fuzzy matrix, an accurate scoring function with hesitation scaling is defined.
Is provided withFor any interval intuitionistic fuzzy number, the following is named:
is a scoring function of the interval intuitionistic fuzzy number alpha.
Converting the interval intuitionistic judgment matrix Y into a scoring function matrix S= (S) according to the above ij ) m×n
According to the meanings of the interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix and the scoring function, the reference point of the foreground theory is 0. Therefore, the foreground values of each scheme under different indexes are obtained as follows:
w ij =C(s ij )
wherein ,C(sij ) For the calculation of the foreground theory, the expression is as follows:
thereby obtaining a foreground decision matrix as follows:
W=(w ij ) m×n
(3.2) obtaining a substantially uncertain factor decision matrix:
combining the relation between the scoring function and the uncertainty factor and the characteristics of the foreground theory, using a foreground decision matrix W= (W) ij ) m×n Instead of a MYCIN uncertainty factor matrix, namely:
CF(h i /e j )=w ij
wherein CF (h) i /e j ) Is shown in index I j Scheme X below i Is optimalScheme confidence, CF (h i /e j )∈[-1,1]。
Index I j The confidence level of (2) is:
CF(e j )=1-DOI(I j )
in the formula :
wherein: DOI (I) j ) Is the index I j Q-order uncertainty of (2); r is (r) ij And the gray average value association degree. In order to improve the resolution, the invention adopts the Euclidean distance, so q=2, and ζ=0.5.
From the above two formulas, scheme X can be obtained i At each index I j Under the substantial uncertainty factor CF T (h i /e j ):
CF T (h i /e j )=CF(h i /e j )*CF(e j )
Thereby obtaining a substantially uncertain factor decision matrix CF T =(CF T (h i /e j )) m×n
(3.3) evidence information fusion:
if e 1 ,e 1 ,…,e m Is about h andis independent, then there are:
and fusing the evidence information of the decision matrix of the substantial uncertain factors according to the above formula to obtain the final substantial uncertain factors of each planning scheme, wherein the expression is as follows:
and taking the result as a comprehensive evaluation value, and judging the superiority and inferiority of the scheme aiming at the final essence uncertainty factor of each planning scheme.
When CF is T (h/e 1 ,e 2 ,…,e m ) When the solution is=0, the objection opinion and the support opinion of the solution are the same, and the advantages and disadvantages of the solution cannot be judged; when CF is T (h/e 1 ,e 2 ,…,e m ) When=1, the supporting opinion of the scheme is stated to take absolute dominance, and the scheme is relatively superior; when CF is T (h/e 1 ,e 2 ,…,e m ) At = -1, the objection to this scheme is explained to take absolute dominance and is relatively poor. And selecting an optimal direct-current power distribution network planning scheme according to a substantial uncertainty factor maximization principle.
(3.4) reliability function value of overall uncertainty:
to highlight the advantages of the method of the invention in dealing with the problem of uncertainty of subjective knowledge of decision makers, a mass function is introduced. The mass function represents the exact degree of trust in evidence and is the basic probability distribution of the confidence function.
in the formula :mj (i) Indicating index I j Scheme X below i Is a mass function of (c).
Due to limitations recognized by decision makers and the complexity of objective things, sigma m can be derived j (i)<1, i.e. there is an overall uncertainty. Further, index I can be obtained j Mass function of the overall uncertainty:
the integral uncertainty credibility function value can be obtained by the evidence information fusion rule as follows:
in the formula :X1 ,X 2 ,…,X m Representing each alternative planning scheme.
While the initial overall uncertainty reliability function value may be determined by the index uncertainty DOI (I j ) Is expressed by the average value of (a), namely:
the smaller the reliability function value of the overall uncertainty, the smaller the uncertainty of subjective knowledge of a decision maker in the conclusion is, and the more reliable the conclusion is.
In the embodiment, an industrial park direct-current power distribution network planning scheme in a certain area is selected as a research object. The planning area has a plurality of advantages in aspects of power supply, new energy application and the like: sensitive load user concentration; the distributed power generation resources are rich; an energy storage power station is arranged; the user has a dc load demand, etc. Two 110KV alternating-current substations are arranged near the industrial park and can be used as main power sources, and an energy storage power station is arranged. The load type and the corresponding capacity configuration are shown in table 2.
Table 2 example base load configuration
According to the actual design scheme of the project and combining similar project examples, three alternative schemes are planned by comprehensively considering the network structure, the voltage level, the direct current system grounding mode and the distributed power supply configuration, wherein the scheme 2 is the actual project construction scheme. Each alternative employs a monopolar mode of connection, with the other specific conditions shown in table 3 below.
Table 3 alternative dc distribution network planning scheme
A schema attribute table is constructed from the comprehensive evaluation index system and the individual schemas in FIG. 1, as shown in Table 4. The data of the energy part in the table can be obtained through planning database and simulation calculation, and the part of qualitative evaluation can be obtained according to expert opinion.
Table 4 scheme properties table
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According to the interval intuitionistic fuzzy theory provided by the invention, a decision maker gives an interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix for the relative merits of indexes of each scheme, and after consistency test and correction, the comprehensive interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix is processed through a foreground theory and MYCIN uncertain factors. The following only shows the result of the calculation of the confidence level of each index, as shown in fig. 2, due to space constraints.
As can be seen from fig. 2, the economic index has the most obvious effect on the quality of the scheme, which accords with the importance degree of the economic index in the evaluation of the conventional power grid planning scheme. In the environment of distributed power supply access, the importance of the rationality index of the system DG configuration is inferior to the economical index. The coordination indexes of the AC/DC distribution network frame are less considered in the optimization of the traditional power grid planning scheme, but the indexes have significant influence on the advantages and disadvantages of the scheme in the planning of the DC distribution network.
After the evidence information fusion operation, comprehensive evaluation values of 3 planning schemes are obtained, as shown in table 5.
Table 5 comprehensive evaluation results of each protocol
As can be seen from table 5, the substantial uncertainty factor-1 of scheme 1 after evidence fusion, illustrates that the objection to this scheme is dominant, so scheme 1 is the worst scheme, and when scheme is preferred, it needs to be excluded first; the substantial uncertainty factors after the evidence fusion of scheme 2 and scheme 3 are 0.9975 and 0.6694, respectively, indicate that the support degree of both schemes is dominant, wherein the support degree of scheme 2 is dominant absolutely, so that scheme 2 is the optimal scheme compared with scheme 3. From this, the ranking of the merits of each planning scheme is: scheme 2 > scheme 3 > scheme 1 (symbol > indicates preference). Therefore, the optimal planning scheme of this example is scheme 2, which is consistent with the scheme adopted by the actual engineering.
Furthermore, the mean value of the confidence function that gave the original global uncertainty was calculated to be 43.204%. After the calculation processing by the method provided by the invention, the reliability function value of the overall uncertainty is 3.984%. The evaluation method provided by the invention can obviously reduce the uncertainty of subjective knowledge of a decision maker and improve the decision level.
Different decision maker groups may make different decisions for the same planning scheme due to different characteristics and preferences. Decision makers are generally classified into three categories by risk preference, namely: risk preference type, risk neutral type and risk conservation type. Which in the theory of prospect appear as different risk preferences and risk aversion coefficients. The present invention calculates the comprehensive evaluation results under the three types of preference conditions, respectively, as shown in table 6.
TABLE 6 comprehensive evaluation values for different parameters
The comparison analysis can find that the decision maker ranks the merits of each scheme consistently regardless of the risk preference, namely scheme 2 > scheme 3 > scheme 1. But different preferences of a decision maker have certain differences in judging the merits of the intermediate scheme (scheme 3): the risk preference has a greater dominance to scheme 3 than the risk neutral, while the risk conservative has a dominance to scheme 3. The main reason is that: the evaluation results under the condition of risk preference and risk conservation only can singly highlight benefits or risks, and the advantages and disadvantages of the scheme are difficult to accurately describe. Compared with the prior art, the judging result of the risk neutral person can finely draw the advantages and disadvantages of different schemes, and accords with the actual decision.
In order to further verify the flexibility and practicability of the method provided by the invention, the 3 planning schemes are respectively evaluated by adopting an analytic hierarchy process, a fuzzy comprehensive decision method and the method provided by the invention, and the obtained comprehensive evaluation results are shown in table 7.
Table 7 comprehensive evaluation values of different evaluation methods
It can be seen that although the evaluation methods used were different, the final evaluation results were the same, except for the difference in the discrimination between the methods. Compared with the traditional evaluation method, the method provided by the invention expands the evaluation result from [0,1] to [ -1,1], so that the recognition degree of the evaluation result of each scheme is obviously improved.
While the invention has been described with reference to certain preferred embodiments, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes and substitutions may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims. Therefore, the protection scope of the invention is subject to the protection scope of the claims.

Claims (1)

1. The method for acquiring the evaluation result of the direct current distribution network planning scheme is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s1: constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system of a direct-current power distribution network planning scheme, and establishing a calculation mathematical model of each index;
s2: constructing a comprehensive interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix according to the comprehensive evaluation index system and the index calculated value of the planning scheme, and checking the consistency of the comprehensive interval intuitionistic judgment matrix;
s3: processing the interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix constructed in the step 2) based on a foreground theory and MYCIN uncertain factors to obtain a comprehensive evaluation value, and sequencing all schemes according to a comprehensive evaluation value maximization principle to obtain an evaluation result of a planning scheme;
in step S1, the comprehensive evaluation index system of the dc power distribution network planning scheme includes a reliability index for reflecting the capability of the planned power grid to keep continuously supplying power to the user, a power supply capability index for reflecting the power supply capability of the dc power distribution system, an economic index for reflecting the planning cost and benefit of the dc power distribution network, a grid coordination index for measuring the dc power distribution network planning and ac power distribution network, a DG configuration rationality index for measuring the superiority and inferiority of the distributed power supply configuration in the dc power distribution system, an environmental protection index for reflecting the damage degree of the dc power distribution network planning scheme to the environment, and an adaptability index for reflecting the adaptability of the dc power distribution network planning scheme to external various factors;
the economic index comprises an investment estimation index and an operation management maintenance cost index, the operation management maintenance cost index comprises annual operation maintenance cost and annual transmission loss cost, and the expression is as follows:
in the formula :Cop For annual operation maintenance cost r op For annual maintenance rate, 1.8% is taken, C ic C is the total engineering cost tr For annual transmission loss cost, k is the loss rate, P av S is electricity selling price, h is the number of hours in 1 year;
the DG configuration rationality index comprises a voltage support index, a voltage fluctuation index and a DG utilization rate, and the expression is as follows:
in the formula :IVS Is a voltage support index, N l W is the number of faults selected Fl For different fault weight coefficients, N k To the total number of samples after the selected fault Fl, W k For sampling instant t k N is the number of buses in the network, W bi Is the weight coefficient of the bus i, V i (t k ) For sampling instant t k Voltage of I TSI As sensitivity coefficient, N k W is the total sampling number k For sampling instant t k N is the number of buses in the network, W bi As the weight coefficient of the bus i, deltaP is the variation of DG output, V i (t k ,P 0 +ΔP) is the voltage of bus I at sampling instant under DG output variation, I VF Voltage fluctuation index delta P of DC distribution network connected to DG + Indicating an increase in DG output, ΔP Indicating reduced DG output, K DG The DG utilization rate is used; n (N) dg The number of DGs in the direct current distribution network planning scheme is calculated; p (P) i dg The actual output power of the ith DG; p (P) i dgN Rated output power for the ith DG;
in step S2, the expression of the comprehensive interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix Y is as follows:
wherein E is the number of decision makers, A e The expression of the interval intuitionistic fuzzy judgment matrix for the e decision maker is as follows:
wherein ,scoring interval of the ith scheme under the jth index considered by the (e) th decision maker, its tableThe expression is:
in the formula ,judging the affirmative degree interval of the scheme i as the optimal scheme under the jth index for the (e) th decision maker,/or->Judging a negation degree interval of the optimal scheme of the scheme i under the j index for an e decision maker;
the specific content for checking the consistency of the comprehensive interval intuitionistic judgment matrix is as follows:
the consistency of the comprehensive interval intuitionistic judgment matrix Y is judged by constructing a compatibility index SI, and the expression is as follows:
in the formula ,the membership degree upper and lower limits of the matrix A are respectively +.>The upper limit and the lower limit of membership degree of the matrix Y are respectively indicated by an upper label L, H;
if matrix Y and all A e The following condition is satisfied, the consistency of the interval intuitionistic fuzzy matrix Y is considered acceptable:
SI(A e ,Y)≤τ
wherein: τ is a threshold value of the compatibility index;
if SI (A) e Y) > τ, then the consistency of the interval intuitionistic fuzzy matrix is considered unacceptable, forCorrecting the comprehensive interval intuitionistic judgment array;
the step S3 specifically comprises the following steps:
1) Based on a foreground theory, converting an interval intuitionistic judging matrix Y into a scoring function matrix by using an interval intuitionistic fuzzy number to obtain a foreground decision matrix;
2) Combining a foreground theory and the relation between a scoring function and an uncertain factor, and replacing a MYCIN uncertain factor matrix by using a foreground decision matrix to obtain the trust degree of an optimal scheme, thereby obtaining a substantial uncertain factor decision matrix;
3) The evidence information of the decision matrix of the substantial uncertain factors is fused, the final substantial uncertain factors of each planning scheme are obtained and used as comprehensive evaluation values, and the superiority and inferiority of the scheme are judged aiming at the final substantial uncertain factors of each planning scheme;
4) Acquiring a reliability function value of the overall uncertainty, and judging the uncertainty of subjective knowledge of a decision maker;
5) Sequencing all schemes according to a comprehensive evaluation value maximization principle to obtain an evaluation result of a planning scheme;
in step 1), the expression of the foreground decision matrix W is:
W=(w ij ) m×n
in the formula ,wij For the foreground values of each scheme under different indexes, the expression is as follows:
w ij =C(s ij )
wherein ,C(sij ) For the calculation of the foreground theory, the expression is as follows:
the specific content of the step 2) is as follows:
using the foreground decision matrix w= (W ij ) m×n Replacing the MYCIN uncertainty factor matrix:
CF(h i /e j )=w ij
wherein CF (h) i /e j ) In index I j Scheme X below i For the trust of the optimal scheme, CF (h i /e j )∈[-1,1];
Index I j The confidence level of (2) is:
CF(e j )=1-DOI(I j )
in the formula :
wherein: DOI (I) j ) Is the index I j Degree of uncertainty of q order, r ij The gray average value association degree;
obtaining scheme X from the above two modes i At each index I j Under the substantial uncertainty factor CF T (h i /e j ):
CF T (h i /e j )=CF(h i /e j )*CF(e j )
And further obtaining a substantial uncertainty factor decision matrix as:
CF T =(CF T (h i /e j )) m×n
in step 3), the final substantial uncertainty factor is calculated as:
when CF is T (h/e 1 ,e 2 ,…,e m ) When the value is=0, the objection opinion and the supporting opinion of the scheme are the same, and the superiority and inferiority of the scheme cannot be judged; when CF is T (h/e 1 ,e 2 ,…,e m ) When=1, this indicates that the supporting opinion for the scheme is dominant, the scheme is relatively superior; when CF is T (h/e 1 ,e 2 ,…,e m ) When = -1, the objection to this scheme is represented to take absolute dominance, which is relatively poor; selecting the most significant according to the principle of maximizing the essence uncertainty factorOptimal direct current power distribution network planning scheme;
in step 4), the expression of the reliability function value of the overall uncertainty is:
in the formula :X1 ,X 2 ,…,X m For each alternative planning scheme, the smaller the reliability function value of the overall uncertainty is, the smaller the uncertainty of subjective knowledge of a decision maker in the conclusion is, and the more reliable the conclusion is.
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