CA2556985C - Procede et systeme permettant une prevision automatisee des cyclones tropicaux, d'une maniere probabiliste et dependant de la localisation - Google Patents
Procede et systeme permettant une prevision automatisee des cyclones tropicaux, d'une maniere probabiliste et dependant de la localisation Download PDFInfo
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- CA2556985C CA2556985C CA2556985A CA2556985A CA2556985C CA 2556985 C CA2556985 C CA 2556985C CA 2556985 A CA2556985 A CA 2556985A CA 2556985 A CA2556985 A CA 2556985A CA 2556985 C CA2556985 C CA 2556985C
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- 238000001914 filtration Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 4
- 238000012614 Monte-Carlo sampling Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 3
- 230000008859 change Effects 0.000 claims description 12
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims description 8
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Classifications
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- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01W—METEOROLOGY
- G01W1/00—Meteorology
- G01W1/10—Devices for predicting weather conditions
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- Environmental & Geological Engineering (AREA)
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Life Sciences & Earth Sciences (AREA)
- Atmospheric Sciences (AREA)
- Biodiversity & Conservation Biology (AREA)
- Ecology (AREA)
- Environmental Sciences (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
- Wind Motors (AREA)
- Radar Systems Or Details Thereof (AREA)
- Compounds Of Unknown Constitution (AREA)
Abstract
L'invention se rapporte à un procédé de prévision automatisée des cyclones tropicaux, probabiliste et dépendant de la localisation, selon lequel une pluralité de nouveaux enregistrements de données représentatifs de tracés possibles sont générés en fonction des tracés historiques au moyen d'un premier module de Monte Carlo, les points de ces nouveaux enregistrements de données étant générés à partir des points situés le long d'un tracé historique par un processus d'échantillonnage dépendant, et selon lequel une climatologie relative aux intensités est générée, sur la base de données d'intensités associées à au moins certains des points de la pluralité de points situés le long des tracés historiques localisés à l'intérieur d'une cellule de grille donnée, selon lequel de nouvelles données d'intensités sont générées au moyen d'un second module de Monte Carlo, lesdites nouvelles données d'intensités étant générées à partir des données d'intensités associées à au moins certains des points de la pluralité de points situés le long des tracés historiques par un processus d'échantillonnage de Monte Carlo, selon lequel la distribution des tracés historiques est reproduite par un module de filtrage à l'intérieur des nouveaux enregistrements de données ou des enregistrements de données accumulés, et selon lequel un champ de vent de chaque enregistrement de données est généré et une probabilité attribuée par un module d'interpolation à chaque point de ladite grille, ceci produisant la probabilité de survenue d'une force de vent spécifique en un emplacement géographique donné et à un instant donné.
Applications Claiming Priority (3)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| US10/787,791 US7219015B2 (en) | 2004-02-26 | 2004-02-26 | Methods for generating data set |
| US10/787,791 | 2004-02-26 | ||
| PCT/EP2004/050981 WO2005083471A1 (fr) | 2004-02-26 | 2004-06-01 | Procede et systeme permettant une prevision automatisee des cyclones tropicaux, d'une maniere probabiliste et dependant de la localisation |
Publications (2)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CA2556985A1 CA2556985A1 (fr) | 2005-09-09 |
| CA2556985C true CA2556985C (fr) | 2010-10-19 |
Family
ID=34886856
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA2556985A Expired - Lifetime CA2556985C (fr) | 2004-02-26 | 2004-06-01 | Procede et systeme permettant une prevision automatisee des cyclones tropicaux, d'une maniere probabiliste et dependant de la localisation |
Country Status (10)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| US (3) | US7219015B2 (fr) |
| EP (1) | EP1721193B1 (fr) |
| JP (1) | JP4512635B2 (fr) |
| CN (1) | CN1922508B (fr) |
| AT (1) | ATE362119T1 (fr) |
| AU (1) | AU2004316579B2 (fr) |
| CA (1) | CA2556985C (fr) |
| DE (1) | DE602004006444T2 (fr) |
| DK (1) | DK1721193T3 (fr) |
| WO (1) | WO2005083471A1 (fr) |
Families Citing this family (50)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US7110884B2 (en) * | 2001-05-15 | 2006-09-19 | Earthworks Solutions, Inc. | Methods in the engineering design and construction of earthen fills |
| US20120078515A1 (en) * | 2002-09-16 | 2012-03-29 | Earthwork Solutions, Llc | Engineering design and construction of earthen fills |
| US8229766B2 (en) | 2004-07-30 | 2012-07-24 | Risk Management Solutions, Inc. | System and method for producing a flexible geographical grid |
| US7707050B2 (en) | 2004-03-11 | 2010-04-27 | Risk Management Solutions, Inc. | Systems and methods for determining concentrations of exposure |
| US7584134B2 (en) * | 2004-12-21 | 2009-09-01 | Weather Risk Solutions, Llc | Graphical user interface for financial activity concerning tropical weather events |
| US7584133B2 (en) * | 2004-12-21 | 2009-09-01 | Weather Risk Solutions Llc | Financial activity based on tropical weather events |
| US7783543B2 (en) | 2004-12-21 | 2010-08-24 | Weather Risk Solutions, Llc | Financial activity based on natural peril events |
| US7693766B2 (en) | 2004-12-21 | 2010-04-06 | Weather Risk Solutions Llc | Financial activity based on natural events |
| US7783542B2 (en) | 2004-12-21 | 2010-08-24 | Weather Risk Solutions, Llc | Financial activity with graphical user interface based on natural peril events |
| US7783544B2 (en) | 2004-12-21 | 2010-08-24 | Weather Risk Solutions, Llc | Financial activity concerning tropical weather events |
| WO2007056873A2 (fr) * | 2005-11-15 | 2007-05-24 | Swiss Reinsurance Company | Systeme de declenchement automatise a indices de declenchement a reaction en fonction du temps, destine a des dispositifs de commande dans des systemes concus pour couvrir des degats en plusieurs etapes, pour des cyclones qui sont en train d'arriver et/ou d'apparaitre et procede correspondant |
| US7734245B2 (en) * | 2006-01-13 | 2010-06-08 | Sai Ravela | Statistical-deterministic approach to natural disaster prediction |
| US20070221743A1 (en) * | 2006-03-23 | 2007-09-27 | Weinzapfel Robert A | Methods of calculating impact time for storms |
| US20070225915A1 (en) * | 2006-03-23 | 2007-09-27 | Weinzapfel Robert A | Methods of characterizing storms |
| JP5044243B2 (ja) * | 2007-03-08 | 2012-10-10 | 一般財団法人電力中央研究所 | 被害関数作成方法、装置およびプログラム並びに台風被害予測方法、装置およびプログラム |
| US7970543B2 (en) * | 2008-03-18 | 2011-06-28 | The United States Of America, Represented By The Secretary Of Commerce | Predicting tropical cyclone destructive potential by integrated kinetic energy according to the Powell/Reinhold scale |
| US8204846B1 (en) | 2008-04-18 | 2012-06-19 | Wsi, Corporation | Tropical cyclone prediction system and method |
| US8160995B1 (en) | 2008-04-18 | 2012-04-17 | Wsi, Corporation | Tropical cyclone prediction system and method |
| US8224768B1 (en) | 2008-04-18 | 2012-07-17 | Wsi, Corporation | Tropical cyclone prediction system and method |
| US20100082253A1 (en) * | 2008-09-26 | 2010-04-01 | Buchanan William E | Strategic management system to stop the development of hurricanes and abate the intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes |
| US8983808B2 (en) * | 2008-10-15 | 2015-03-17 | The United States Of America, As Represented By The Secretary Of The Navy | Automated mesh generation and editing tools |
| US8655924B2 (en) * | 2008-10-15 | 2014-02-18 | The United States Of America, As Represented By The Secretary Of The Navy | System and method for providing structured data to a structured or unstructured grid |
| US8098542B2 (en) * | 2009-01-05 | 2012-01-17 | Pgs Geophysical As | Combined electromagnetic and seismic acquisition system and method |
| US8346682B2 (en) * | 2009-01-23 | 2013-01-01 | The United States Of America, As Represented By The Secretary Of The Navy | Information assisted visual interface, system, and method for identifying and quantifying multivariate associations |
| US8280633B1 (en) | 2009-02-10 | 2012-10-02 | Strategic Design Federation W, Inc. | Weather risk estimation system and method |
| US10068178B2 (en) * | 2010-01-13 | 2018-09-04 | Oath, Inc. | Methods and system for associating locations with annotations |
| WO2011088473A2 (fr) * | 2010-01-18 | 2011-07-21 | The Regents Of The University Of California | Système et procédé d'identification de schémas d'évènements climatiques extrêmes et / ou de prédiction de ceux-ci |
| BR112012017807A8 (pt) * | 2010-01-19 | 2017-10-10 | Swiss reinsurance co ltd | método e sistema para detecção e previsão automatizada de desastre natural dependente de localização |
| CN101933448B (zh) * | 2010-07-26 | 2012-09-05 | 北京师范大学 | 一种制作热带气旋风带的方法 |
| US9230219B2 (en) * | 2010-08-23 | 2016-01-05 | Institute Of Nuclear Energy Research Atomic Energy Council, Executive Yuan | Wind energy forecasting method with extreme wind speed prediction function |
| CN102132662B (zh) * | 2011-01-10 | 2012-10-17 | 北京师范大学 | 改进的制作热带气旋风带的方法 |
| US20130226624A1 (en) | 2012-02-24 | 2013-08-29 | B3, Llc | Systems and methods for comprehensive insurance loss management and loss minimization |
| FR2990681B1 (fr) * | 2012-05-16 | 2014-06-13 | Ingenierie De Rech S Et D Etudes En Hydrodynamique Navale Par Abreviation Sirehna Soc D | Procede de prevision d'au moins un mouvement d'un navire sous l'effet de la houle |
| CN102681035B (zh) * | 2012-05-18 | 2013-12-25 | 福建四创软件有限公司 | 利用切线方法结合热带气旋预报路径实现预报误差的方法 |
| CN103955009B (zh) * | 2014-04-25 | 2016-03-09 | 宁波市气象台 | 一种从数值预报产品中提取出台风客观预报信息的方法 |
| KR101646587B1 (ko) * | 2014-08-19 | 2016-08-10 | 울산과학기술원 | 북서태평양 태풍 활동성에 대한 하이브리드 계절 예측 방법 |
| CN104965993B (zh) * | 2015-07-17 | 2019-01-25 | 南京信息工程大学 | 一种基于尺度化集合变换的混合扰动方法 |
| CN105425320B (zh) * | 2015-11-10 | 2018-01-05 | 中国科学院深圳先进技术研究院 | 热带气旋引发沿海地区大风的概率预报方法和系统 |
| CN106570215B (zh) * | 2016-10-13 | 2019-08-06 | 北京航空航天大学 | 一种基于时变气象数据的热带气旋动态仿真方法 |
| CN108427834A (zh) * | 2018-02-13 | 2018-08-21 | 中国气象科学研究院 | 基于中尺度模式的工程台风精细化数值模拟系统及方法 |
| CN109086540B (zh) * | 2018-08-14 | 2022-11-11 | 中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所 | 一种构建热带气旋路径预报模型的方法及装置 |
| CN109325960B (zh) * | 2018-11-20 | 2021-07-09 | 南京信息工程大学 | 一种红外云图气旋分析方法及分析系统 |
| CN109444989B (zh) * | 2018-12-28 | 2020-07-07 | 中山大学 | 台风预报方法、系统、可读存储介质和设备 |
| CN109993282B (zh) * | 2019-03-28 | 2020-06-12 | 北京航空航天大学 | 一种台风波及范围的预测方法 |
| CN111220786A (zh) * | 2020-03-09 | 2020-06-02 | 生态环境部华南环境科学研究所 | 一种深水沉积物有机污染快速监测方法 |
| CN111427100B (zh) * | 2020-03-30 | 2021-09-03 | 广州数鹏通科技有限公司 | 一种台风中心定位方法、装置及台风路径生成方法 |
| CN111523087B (zh) * | 2020-04-10 | 2021-04-16 | 北京航空航天大学 | 一种台风强度长期变化趋势分析方法 |
| CN112394424B (zh) * | 2020-09-28 | 2022-04-26 | 南京信息工程大学 | 一种区域极端降水事件的监测方法 |
| WO2022266910A1 (fr) * | 2021-06-24 | 2022-12-29 | 清华大学 | Procédé et appareil de prédiction d'activité typhonique, dispositif et support de stockage |
| CN113344136B (zh) * | 2021-07-06 | 2022-03-15 | 南京信息工程大学 | 一种基于Mask R-CNN的新反气旋客观识别方法 |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| US6493633B2 (en) * | 1996-06-04 | 2002-12-10 | Robert O. Baron, Sr. | Systems and methods for distributing real-time site specific weather information |
| JP3226468B2 (ja) * | 1996-11-29 | 2001-11-05 | 東京海上火災保険株式会社 | 風災害による損害評価システム |
| US5978738A (en) * | 1997-02-13 | 1999-11-02 | Anthony Brown | Severe weather detector and alarm |
| US7424409B2 (en) * | 2001-02-20 | 2008-09-09 | Context-Based 4 Casting (C-B4) Ltd. | Stochastic modeling of time distributed sequences |
| JP2002296362A (ja) * | 2001-03-29 | 2002-10-09 | Songai Hokenryoritsu Santeikai | 確率的手法を用いて合成された台風による風害評価システム及び方法 |
| JP2003085361A (ja) * | 2001-07-03 | 2003-03-20 | Tokio Marine & Fire Insurance Co Ltd | デリバティブの設計支援システム、コンピュータプログラムおよび方法 |
-
2004
- 2004-02-26 US US10/787,791 patent/US7219015B2/en active Active
- 2004-06-01 CN CN2004800421359A patent/CN1922508B/zh not_active Expired - Lifetime
- 2004-06-01 JP JP2007500069A patent/JP4512635B2/ja not_active Expired - Lifetime
- 2004-06-01 EP EP04741694A patent/EP1721193B1/fr not_active Expired - Lifetime
- 2004-06-01 CA CA2556985A patent/CA2556985C/fr not_active Expired - Lifetime
- 2004-06-01 AU AU2004316579A patent/AU2004316579B2/en active Active
- 2004-06-01 WO PCT/EP2004/050981 patent/WO2005083471A1/fr active IP Right Grant
- 2004-06-01 DE DE602004006444T patent/DE602004006444T2/de active Active
- 2004-06-01 AT AT04741694T patent/ATE362119T1/de not_active IP Right Cessation
- 2004-06-01 US US10/590,695 patent/US7359799B2/en not_active Expired - Fee Related
- 2004-06-01 DK DK04741694T patent/DK1721193T3/da active
-
2006
- 2006-11-13 US US11/598,524 patent/US7340346B2/en not_active Expired - Fee Related
Also Published As
| Publication number | Publication date |
|---|---|
| AU2004316579A1 (en) | 2005-09-09 |
| US7340346B2 (en) | 2008-03-04 |
| CA2556985A1 (fr) | 2005-09-09 |
| US7219015B2 (en) | 2007-05-15 |
| US7359799B2 (en) | 2008-04-15 |
| JP4512635B2 (ja) | 2010-07-28 |
| US20050192751A1 (en) | 2005-09-01 |
| US20070093964A1 (en) | 2007-04-26 |
| CN1922508B (zh) | 2010-05-05 |
| JP2007524099A (ja) | 2007-08-23 |
| ATE362119T1 (de) | 2007-06-15 |
| EP1721193A1 (fr) | 2006-11-15 |
| EP1721193B1 (fr) | 2007-05-09 |
| DE602004006444D1 (de) | 2007-06-21 |
| DK1721193T3 (da) | 2007-09-24 |
| CN1922508A (zh) | 2007-02-28 |
| WO2005083471A1 (fr) | 2005-09-09 |
| DE602004006444T2 (de) | 2008-01-10 |
| AU2004316579B2 (en) | 2008-05-08 |
| US20070185653A1 (en) | 2007-08-09 |
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Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| EEER | Examination request |