CN103530814A - Telesignalisation data simulation system for 500kV area control centers - Google Patents
Telesignalisation data simulation system for 500kV area control centers Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a telesignalisation data simulation system for 500kV area control centers. The system comprises a modeling unit, an input unit, a simulating estimation unit and an output unit; and the modeling unit specifically comprises a sample extraction subunit, a statistic analysis subunit and a modeling subunit. The system utilizes the telesignalisation data recorded by an area control center as a sample to count the frequency distribution of telesignalling frequency of each station per unit time, and accordingly establishes each category of typical telesignalisation data model; the system utilizes the typical telesignalisation data models to estimate the telesignalisation intensity of the area control center after new stations are connected, and thereby simulating the telesignalisation data of the area control center after the new stations are connected, providing the work allocation of assigning monitoring personnel with reference or guidance, and consequently, the work allocation of monitoring personnel can be more accurately matched with the actual condition after the stations are connected.
Description
[technical field]
The present invention relates to a kind of management and control technology of transformer station, particularly a kind of remote signalling amount simulation system of 500kV Regional Control Center.
[background technology]
The setting up of Grid control center (be called for short control center, district) realized the management mode of 500kV transformer station remote centralized control, unattended, few man on duty, effectively reduce operation management cost, improved Operation and Maintenance efficiency, therefore control pattern in district's is promoted and popularizes rapidly in China's power grid construction, and the schematic diagram of district's control pattern as shown in fig. 1.Yet, along with the quick increase of 500kV website quantity, the also corresponding increase of website that control center, district is controlled, the website here can be that transformer station or string are mended station.But when increasing website, must need to drop into more prison dish personnel, after newly increasing website, prison dish workload has much, need to increase how many prison dish personnel and be all needs pre-prepdly, but according to prison dish personnel's work " busy not being in a hurry ", adjusts configuration after being merely able at present rule of thumb situation or dropping into gradually prison dish personnel.Obviously, these modes all can not be more exactly with access website after actual state match.
[summary of the invention]
In view of this, the invention provides a kind of remote signalling amount simulation system of 500kV Regional Control Center, so that provide with reference to or instruct for dropping into prison dish personnel's active configuration, thus the active configuration that makes prison dish personnel more exactly with access website after actual state match.
Concrete technical scheme is as follows:
A remote signalling amount simulation system for Regional Control Center, this system comprises: modeling unit, input block, simulation estimate unit and output unit; Wherein modeling unit specifically comprises that sample extraction subelement, statistical study subelement and model set up subelement;
Described sample extraction subelement, extracts remote signalling data in certain period as sample data for the remote signalling data from Regional Control Center record;
Described statistical study subelement, for adding up the frequency distribution of each website remote signalling number of times in the unit interval based on described sample data;
Described model is set up subelement, for website of all categories, the frequency distribution of each website remote signalling number of times in the unit interval in this classification is synthesized, to set up such other remote signalling typical data model for respectively;
Described input block, for obtaining classification and the quantity of website to be accessed of the described Regional Control Center of user input;
Described simulation estimate unit, for utilizing the remote signalling typical data model corresponding to classification of described website to be accessed, to accessing the remote signalling intensity of described website rear region to be accessed control center, estimate, the quantity of wherein said remote signalling typical data model is corresponding with the quantity of website to be accessed;
Described output unit, for exporting the estimation result of described simulation estimate unit.
One preferred implementation according to the present invention, described model is set up described synthetic the comprising that subelement carries out: for each remote signalling number of times, each website is occurred in the unit interval to the frequency of this remote signalling number of times asks arithmetic mean value, root mean square average, geometrical mean, logarithmic mean value or weighted mean value.
One preferred implementation according to the present invention, described modeling unit also comprises: independence is analyzed subelement, for described statistical study subelement being added up to the frequency distribution of each website remote signalling number of times in the unit interval obtaining, carry out independence analysis, the website with independence is set up to subelement for described model and set up remote signalling typical data model.
One preferred implementation according to the present invention, described independence is analyzed subelement, also, for being a website by not separate site groups cooperation, re-starts independence analysis, until all websites are all separate; Or,
If there is not separate website, change the unit interval granularity that described statistical study subelement adopts, re-start independence analysis, until all websites are all separate.
One preferred implementation according to the present invention, described independence is analyzed subelement when carrying out independence analysis, specifically for calculating the Combined Frequency of two websites remote signalling number of times in the unit interval, distribute, the Combined Frequency calculating is distributed and distributes and contrast with actual frequency, if error, in default the first error range, thinks that two websites are separate.
One preferred implementation according to the present invention, described modeling unit also comprises: model testing subelement, for calculate respectively Combined Frequency for remote signalling typical data model of all categories, distribute, the Combined Frequency calculating is distributed and compared with actual count situation, if error is in the second default error range, determine that such other remote signalling typical data model is effectively, otherwise determine that such other remote signalling data model is invalid.
One preferred implementation according to the present invention, described simulation estimate unit, specifically for adding up the Combined Frequency of the remote signalling number of times of the website unit interval of having accessed Regional Control Center, distribute, using website to be accessed corresponding classification remote signalling typical data model remote signalling number of times within the unit interval as website to be accessed frequency distribution and distribute and synthesize with the Combined Frequency of the remote signalling number of times of the described website unit interval of having accessed Regional Control Center, obtain accessing the remote signalling intensity of described website rear region to be accessed control center.
One preferred implementation according to the present invention, described classification comprises transformer station and string benefit station.
As can be seen from the above technical solutions, the present invention can realize the remote signalling amount simulation after the access website of control center, district, for dropping into prison dish personnel's active configuration, provide with reference to or instruct, thus the active configuration that makes prison dish personnel more exactly with access website after actual state match.
[accompanying drawing explanation]
The schematic diagram of Tu1Wei district control pattern;
The structural representation of the remote signalling amount simulation system of the 500kV Regional Control Center that Fig. 2 provides for the embodiment of the present invention.
[embodiment]
In order to make the object, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer, below in conjunction with the drawings and specific embodiments, describe the present invention.
The structural representation of the remote signalling amount simulation system of the 500kV Regional Control Center providing for the embodiment of the present invention in Fig. 2, in this system, can be arranged at control center, district, mainly comprise: modeling unit 00, input block 10, simulation estimate unit 20 and output unit 30.
Wherein modeling unit 00 is mainly responsible for setting up remote signalling typical data model, this remote signalling typical data model carries out obtaining after statistical study based on existing historical remote signalling data, particularly, this modeling unit 00 can comprise that sample extraction subelement 01, statistical study subelement 02 and model set up subelement 03, can further include model testing subelement 04.
At each website, conventionally have automation equipment for report and submit the signal of reflection website ruuning situation, fault or accident to control center, district, these signals are called remote signalling.District carries out record to meeting to these remote signalling datas in control center, comprise the information such as time that remote signalling occurs, website, and the remote signalling at prison dish personnel's workload and control center, district is closely related (although prison dish personnel are also responsible for other tasks such as remote control, but with regard to workload, remote signalling has accounted for the overwhelming majority), so the remote signalling typical data model of setting up in the embodiment of the present invention is exactly the historical remote signalling data based on district's control central record.Be in the remote signalling data of sample extraction subelement 01Cong district control central record, to extract remote signalling data in certain period as sample data.
Here " certain period " can be 1 year, also can be one month or some months, also can be certain number of days etc., suppose in the present embodiment from the historical remote signalling data of district's control central record, extract the remote signalling data of 2011.1.1～2011.12.31, within 2011, annual remote signalling data is as sample data.
After extracting above-mentioned sample data, statistical study subelement 02 is added up the frequency distribution of each website remote signalling number of times in the unit interval based on this sample data, and the frequency of each remote signalling number of times appears in each website in the unit interval.
For the work of prison dish, on ordinary meaning there is gap in the average remote signalling number of times of statistical unit time and the actual state of prison dish work, can not accurately reflect the intensity of actual prison dish work.Give an example, 10 remote signalling of generation per hour in a year 8760 hours and 100 remote signalling concentrate to occur every 10 hours, working strength is completely different, supposes, within one minute, 300 remote signalling have occurred, and just needs prison dish personnel within the limited time, to handle this 300 remote signalling.For prison dish personnel, there is how many times remote signalling in the unit's of comparing period, how the time period that different remote signalling number of times occur in a period of supervision distributes and has more meaning, this be exactly in fact one about the frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times in the unit interval.
At this, specifically can adopt each website in the unit interval, to occur the frequency of each remote signalling number of times, therefore, in the constituent parts time, the frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times is expressed as follows:
f(n)＝F（1）
Wherein n is the remote signalling number of times in the unit interval, and F is frequency.
For example the implication of f (2)=300 is: in 1 measurement period, have in 300 unit interval twice remote signalling occurred.
The above-mentioned unit interval can be hour, can be also minute can be also the other times length of setting.Suppose to using minute as the unit interval, year is as measurement period, table 1 for to access certain control center, district each website remote signalling minute in the frequency of the remote signalling number of times statistics of carrying out, the frequency that remote signalling number of times in corresponding minute occurs is shown in every list, and remote signalling number of times in maximum that each website occurs minute is shown in the list that name is called " MAX ".So in per minute the unit of remote signalling number of times be " beat/min ", the unit of frequency be " times/year ".
Table 1
Because different classes of website has different features, therefore also there is difference in its frequency distribution that sends remote signalling, therefore model is set up subelement 03 and is utilized the frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times in each website unit interval to set up the remote signalling typical data model of each website classification, it is the frequency distribution that remote signalling typical data model has reflected website remote signalling number of times within the unit interval of a classification, can, respectively for website of all categories, the frequency distribution of each website remote signalling number of times in the unit interval in this classification be synthesized.Synthetic mode can be: for each remote signalling number of times, each website is occurred in the unit interval to the frequency of this remote signalling number of times asks arithmetic mean value, root mean square average, geometrical mean, logarithmic mean value or weighted mean value etc.
At this, in order to simplify calculating, can take different classes of website in the unit interval, to occur that the frequency of each remote signalling number of times asks arithmetic mean value, first each website is classified, simple sorting technique is divided into exactly transformer station and string is mended station, also can classify according to area, or classify etc. according to the quantity at inlet wire, outlet, interval.
At this, take and be divided into transformer station and string to mend station be example, calculate respectively each remote signalling number of times appears in transformer station frequency averaging value in the unit interval, and string is mended the frequency averaging value that occurs each remote signalling number of times in the unit interval of standing.Take in one minute and occur that a remote signalling is example, all transformer stations were occurred in one minute to the number of times of a remote signalling is averaging, be about in table 1 part of corresponding transformer station in first row numeral and be averaging:
(1634+1787+2472+2430+2240+2058+3711+2025+2346+3244+2627)/11=2415.8182
Each remote signalling number of times occurring in one minute is averaging respectively, and it is as shown in table 2 that the remote signalling typical data model of the final transformer station setting up and string are mended the remote signalling teledata model at station.
Table 2
Visible, the remote signalling typical data model of transformer station has reflected the frequency distribution of transformer station's remote signalling number of times within the unit interval, and the remote signalling typical data model that string is mended station has reflected that string benefit stands in the frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times in the unit interval.
Due to when applying remote signalling typical data model, based on theory be that the Combined Frequency of a plurality of websites distribute to be synthetic by the independent frequency distribution of each website, therefore, for more accurate, the frequency distribution that preferably guarantees the interior remote signalling number of times of unit interval of each website is separate, and value is not subject to the impact of other websites.Preferably, in modeling unit 00, can further include independence and analyze subelement 05, for the frequency distribution that statistical study subelement 02 is added up to each website remote signalling number of times in the unit interval obtaining, carry out independence analysis, the website with independence is set up to subelement 03 for model and set up remote signalling typical data model.For website independently not, can adopt but be not limited to following two kinds of modes and process:
First kind of way, inciting somebody to action not independently site groups cooperation is a website, re-starts independence analysis, until all websites are all separate.
The second way, changes the unit interval granularity that system statistical study subelement 02 adopts, and then re-starts independence analysis, until all websites are all separate.Generally, the granularity of the unit interval that statistical study subelement 02 adopts is less, independence between the website obtaining is better, for example, and the independence between the website that the independence between the website obtaining in minute granularity is much better than to obtain in hour granularity.Therefore the original unit interval adopting be hour, if existence website independently not can change to the unit interval minute, if still there is not independently website, the unit interval can be changed to second, etc.
In mathematical meaning, independence is defined as: if P (AB)=P (A) P (B) thinks that two event A and B are independent.Can adopt in embodiments of the present invention the Combined Frequency of remote signalling number of times in the unit interval of calculating two websites to distribute, the Combined Frequency calculating is distributed and distributes and contrast with actual frequency, if error thinks that two websites are separate in default the first error range.At this, can adopt maximum error whether presetting the mode in the first error range, can certainly adopt other modes.First error range here can adopt empirical value, can adopt relative error in form, such as ± 15%, also can adopt absolute error, such as 10 times.
The Combined Frequency f of ，S1 HeS2Liang Ge transformer station gives an example
close(n) be:
Wherein, f
close(n) be S1 and the S2 Combined Frequency that remote signalling number of times is n within the unit interval.
F
s1(i) be the S1 of the transformer station frequency that remote signalling number of times is i within the unit interval.
F
s2(n-i) be the S2 of the transformer station frequency that remote signalling number of times is n-i within the unit interval.
For example, according to the mode of above-mentioned formula (2), the D2, I2 transformer station in his-and-hers watches 1 carries out the calculating of Combined Frequency, and respectively calculated value and actual count value is compared, and obtains error, and result of calculation is as shown in table 3.
Table 3
As can be seen from Table 3, in maximum error appears at minute, in the situation of 13 remote signalling, be-14.33%, suppose that the first default error range is ± 15%, illustrate that above-mentioned D2He I2 transformer station is separate.
At model, set up subelement 03 and complete after the foundation of remote signalling typical data model, model testing subelement 04 can be tested to remote signalling typical data model.
The concrete mode of check can be: for remote signalling typical data model of all categories, calculate respectively Combined Frequency and distribute, the Combined Frequency calculating is distributed and compared with actual count situation, if error (can adopt the mode of judgement maximum error in the second default error range at this in the second default error range, can certainly adopt other modes), determine that such other remote signalling typical data model is effective; Otherwise determine that such other remote signalling typical data model is invalid.If invalid, abandon this remote signalling typical data model.Second error range here can adopt empirical value equally, can adopt relative error equally in form, such as ± 10%, also can adopt absolute error, for example 10 times.
For example, calculate 11Ge transformer station remote signalling typical data model respectively for the Combined Frequency of each remote signalling number of times in the unit interval, calculated value and actual count value are compared, calculated value and actual count value are as shown in table 4, maximum error is-6.24%, suppose that the second error range is ± 10%, determine that the remote signalling typical data model of transformer station is effective.
Calculate 3 strings and mend the Combined Frequency of station remote signalling typical data model, calculated value and actual count value are compared, and calculated value and actual count value are as shown in table 5, and maximum error is 0.37, in the second error range, determine that string is mended the remote signalling typical data model of standing effective.
Table 4
Table 5
Above-mentioned remote signalling typical data model just can utilize this model to carry out the simulation of remote signalling intensity after setting up.It should be noted that, above-mentioned remote signalling typical data model also can utilize new sample data to upgrade.
The simulation estimate that simulation estimate unit 20 carries out is exactly: utilize remote signalling typical data model to determine the remote signalling intensity at access control center, described website to be accessed back zone, mode is particularly: add up the website at access area control center and distribute in the Combined Frequency of the remote signalling number of times of unit interval, using website to be accessed the frequency distribution of remote signalling typical data model remote signalling number of times within the unit interval as website to be accessed of corresponding classification and the website at access area control center in the Combined Frequency of the remote signalling number of times of unit interval, distribute and synthesize, obtain accessing the remote signalling intensity at control center, described website to be accessed back zone.
Give an example, suppose to have at present 11Ge transformer station and control center, access area, 3 string benefit stations, plan accesses 6 transformer stations again and 4 strings are mended station, owing to there is remote signalling data in the website at access area control center, therefore add up existing remote signalling data can obtain access area control center website minute in the Combined Frequency of remote signalling number of times distribute.For website to be accessed, there is no statistics, the remote signalling typical data model that just utilizes transformer station at this as transformer station to be accessed minute in the frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times, utilize remote signalling typical data model that string mends station as string to be accessed mend station minute in the frequency distribution of remote signalling number of times, that is to say, by 6 transformer station's remote signalling typical data models, 4 strings mend station remote signalling typical data model and statistics control center, access area website minute in the Combined Frequency of remote signalling number of times distribute and carry out the synthetic of stochastic variable, the Combined Frequency that finally obtains 17Ge transformer station and 7 string benefit stations distributes, this Combined Frequency distributes and has embodied the remote signalling intensity that accesses control center, website to be accessed back zone.Calculated case can be as shown in table 6.
Table 6
By the estimation result in table 6, be can clearly be seen that, the workload at control center, back zone, the full station of access is significantly increased, for most remote signalling number of times raising ratios, be 100%～300%, peak value is 1003%, valley is 46%, take that this can provide reference and guidance as the active configuration that prison coils personnel, thus the active configuration that makes prison dish personnel more exactly with access website after actual state match.
In several embodiment provided by the present invention, should be understood that, disclosed system can realize by another way.For example, system embodiment described above is only schematically, and for example, the division of described unit, is only that a kind of logic function is divided, and during actual realization, can have other dividing mode.
The described unit as separating component explanation can or can not be also physically to separate, and the parts that show as unit can be or can not be also physical locations, can be positioned at a place, or also can be distributed in a plurality of network element.Can select according to the actual needs some or all of unit wherein to realize the object of the present embodiment scheme.
In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the present invention can be integrated in a processing unit, can be also that the independent physics of unit exists, and also can be integrated in a unit two or more unit.Above-mentioned integrated unit both can adopt the form of hardware to realize, and the form that also can adopt hardware to add SFU software functional unit realizes.
The integrated unit that the above-mentioned form with SFU software functional unit realizes, can be stored in a computer read/write memory medium.Above-mentioned SFU software functional unit is stored in a storage medium, comprise that some instructions are with so that a computer equipment (can be personal computer, server, or the network equipment etc.) or processor (processor) carry out the part steps of method described in each embodiment of the present invention.And aforesaid storage medium comprises: various media that can be program code stored such as USB flash disk, portable hard drive, ROM (read-only memory) (Read-Only Memory, ROM), random access memory (Random Access Memory, RAM), magnetic disc or CDs.
The foregoing is only preferred embodiment of the present invention, in order to limit the present invention, within the spirit and principles in the present invention not all, any modification of making, be equal to replacement, improvement etc., within all should being included in the scope of protection of the invention.
Claims (8)
1. a remote signalling amount simulation system for 500kV Regional Control Center, is characterized in that, this system comprises: modeling unit, input block, simulation estimate unit and output unit; Wherein modeling unit specifically comprises that sample extraction subelement, statistical study subelement and model set up subelement;
Described sample extraction subelement, extracts remote signalling data in certain period as sample data for the remote signalling data from Regional Control Center record;
Described statistical study subelement, for adding up the frequency distribution of each website remote signalling number of times in the unit interval based on described sample data;
Described model is set up subelement, for website of all categories, the frequency distribution of each website remote signalling number of times in the unit interval in this classification is synthesized, to set up such other remote signalling typical data model for respectively;
Described input block, for obtaining classification and the quantity of website to be accessed of the described Regional Control Center of user input;
Described simulation estimate unit, for utilizing the remote signalling typical data model corresponding to classification of described website to be accessed, to accessing the remote signalling intensity of described website rear region to be accessed control center, estimate, the quantity of wherein said remote signalling typical data model is corresponding with the quantity of website to be accessed;
Described output unit, for exporting the estimation result of described simulation estimate unit.
2. system according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described model is set up described synthetic the comprising that subelement carries out: for each remote signalling number of times, each website is occurred in the unit interval to the frequency of this remote signalling number of times asks arithmetic mean value, root mean square average, geometrical mean, logarithmic mean value or weighted mean value.
3. system according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described modeling unit also comprises: independence is analyzed subelement, for described statistical study subelement being added up to the frequency distribution of each website remote signalling number of times in the unit interval obtaining, carry out independence analysis, the website with independence is set up to subelement for described model and set up remote signalling typical data model.
4. system according to claim 3, is characterized in that, described independence is analyzed subelement, also, for being a website by not separate site groups cooperation, re-starts independence analysis, until all websites are all separate; Or,
If there is not separate website, change the unit interval granularity that described statistical study subelement adopts, re-start independence analysis, until all websites are all separate.
5. system according to claim 3, it is characterized in that, described independence is analyzed subelement when carrying out independence analysis, specifically for calculating the Combined Frequency of two websites remote signalling number of times in the unit interval, distribute, the Combined Frequency calculating is distributed and distributes and contrast with actual frequency, if error, in default the first error range, thinks that two websites are separate.
6. system according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described modeling unit also comprises: model testing subelement, for calculate respectively Combined Frequency for remote signalling typical data model of all categories, distribute, the Combined Frequency calculating is distributed and compared with actual count situation, if error in the second default error range, determines that such other remote signalling typical data model is effectively, otherwise determines that such other remote signalling data model is invalid.
7. system according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described simulation estimate unit, specifically for adding up the Combined Frequency of the remote signalling number of times of the website unit interval of having accessed Regional Control Center, distribute, using website to be accessed corresponding classification remote signalling typical data model remote signalling number of times within the unit interval as website to be accessed frequency distribution and distribute and synthesize with the Combined Frequency of the remote signalling number of times of the described website unit interval of having accessed Regional Control Center, obtain accessing the remote signalling intensity of described website rear region to be accessed control center.
8. according to the system described in claim 1,2,6 or 7, it is characterized in that, described classification comprises transformer station and string benefit station.
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