CN101814743A - Wind power integration on-line safety early warning system based on short-term wind power prediction - Google Patents
Wind power integration on-line safety early warning system based on short-term wind power prediction Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a wind power integration on-line safety early warning system based on short-term wind power prediction. The system reads required wind power actually measured data from an EMS (Enhanced Message Service) system, and stores the wind power actually measured data in a power grid database; a wind power prediction module reads current wind power station output from the power grid database, carries out prediction by using the current wind power station output as an input quantity and historical data as a correction quantity to obtain wind power prediction range of the next time window, and also carries out estimation on wind energy quality of a wind power station; and the prediction range and the estimation result are stored in the wind power database and are displayed through a human-computer interface. A wind machine dynamic model and a power grid model are established in an on-line computing analysis engine, the analysis engine reads power grid section from the EMS system, and reads wind power prediction values from the wind power database so as to carry out on-line load flow calculation of the power grid including the wind power station to obtain a trend curve of all indexes related with the power grid safety and carry out out-of-limit comparison for judging the out-of-limit condition and warning.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of wind-electricity integration line safety pre-warning system, particularly a kind of wind-electricity integration safety on line early warning system based on short-term wind power prediction.
Background technology
In recent years,, because becoming the mainstream model that wind energy turbine set is selected for use, its excellent unit performance obtained using widely and paying close attention to based on the vscf generator group of doubly fed induction generator.Domestic research mainly concentrates on aspects such as wind energy turbine set modeling, machine group performance optimization and the arrangement of wind energy turbine set generation schedule; and the problem of being concerned about for power network safety operation; the windy electric field reactive power compensation that comprises consideration blower fan power producing characteristics is distributed rationally and is regulated; peace control policy development of wind-electricity integration zone and the secondary device optimization of considering blower fan protection control logic cooperate; and problems such as online trend calculating of the electrical network of considering the wind power fluctuation and safe early warning; owing to lack effective, authoritative simulation analysis instrument, the also rarely seen report of relevant research.In the comparatively ripe Europe of wind-powered electricity generation development, European Union has formulated special development plan and policy for keeping its world lead level in wind power generation field.Under the excitation of these policies, the dynamic modeling of the wind turbine generator/field of European Union and relevant stabilization of power grids analysis, dispatching management technology have all reached higher level.Yet in one quite long period, these achievements all belong to business secret and are integrated in the business analysis software.In this case, for solving the safe operation problem of China's wind-electricity integration, independent research wind turbine generator/field/group's utility model, and then research and development are very urgent research topics based on the wind-electricity integration safety on line early warning system of short-term wind power prediction, have great researching value.
Summary of the invention
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of short-term wind power prediction model that is applicable to the wind-electricity integration security and stability analysis; build the stabilization of power grids Calculation and Analysis Platform that contains the wind energy turbine set dynamic model; the shock effect that the distinctive protection control logic of the fluctuation of online computational analysis wind power generation and blower fan causes for the safe and stable operation of electrical network realizes the early warning of wind-electricity integration safety on line.
A kind of wind-electricity integration safety on line early warning system based on short-term wind power prediction, comprise electrical network EMS system, the electric network data storehouse, the wind power prediction module, wind power data storehouse, online computational analysis engine, safe early warning and man-machine interface, system reads required wind power measured data from the EMS system, deposit the electric network data storehouse in, the wind power prediction module reads current output of wind electric field from the electric network data storehouse, and be input variable with current output of wind electric field, with the historical data is that correction is predicted, draw wind power prediction scope in the next time window, simultaneously the wind energy quality of wind energy turbine set is assessed, estimation range and assessment result deposit wind power data storehouse on the one hand in, show by man-machine interface on the other hand, have blower fan dynamic model and electric network model in the described online computational analysis engine, analysis engine reads the electrical network section from the EMS system, from wind power data storehouse, read the wind power prediction value, calculate with the online trend of the electrical network that comprises wind energy turbine set, draw the trend curve of each index relevant with power grid security, and pass through in maximum, minimum wind power prediction point carries out electrical network " N-1 " security sweep, analyze the out-of-limit situation of power network line and bus safety index, when online computational analysis engine carries out " N-1 " security sweep to electrical network, there is out-of-limit situation if find the safety index of electrical network, carry out safe early warning, and show by man-machine interface.
The method of described wind power prediction module mainly adopts Time series analysis method.
Time series analysis method prediction wind power mainly is to predict according to the autocorrelation performance of wind power itself, and wherein autoregressive moving-average model (ARMA) is the main method of time series forecasting.
The Forecasting Methodology of described wind power prediction module is also auxiliary with data mining method.
At the non-stationary composition of wind power, adopt the clustering method in the data mining to carry out match, can be so that the result be more accurate.
System reads required electrical network actual measurement parameter from electrical network EMS system, described parameter comprises information such as output of wind electric field, power network topology, node load.
Described online computational analysis engine at first comprises the electrical network modeling of wind energy turbine set dynamic model in Power Factory simulation software, this software has the data-interface with the EMS system, can regularly read the electrical network section from the EMS system, and carry out simulation calculation.
The DSL/DPL language that provides according to Power Factory software carries out secondary development, construct data-interface with the EMS system, can regularly read the electrical network section from the EMS system, and according to the span of wind power prediction, with Power Factory simulation software is computing engines, online computational analysis electricity net safety stable.
Described wind-electricity integration safety on line early warning system based on short-term wind power prediction also comprises electric network fault and Voltage Stability Analysis platform; blower fan was protected the sensitive area analysis module; reactive voltage sensitivity analysis module; scheme database and countermeasure analysis module; the electrical network analysis personnel read the electrical network typical section by electric network fault and Voltage Stability Analysis platform; analyzing wind energy turbine set adopts different reactive power compensation modes to improving the contribution of line voltage stability; take all factors into consideration the economy and the compensation effect of various reactive power compensation combinations; formulate the configuration scheme of wind energy turbine set reactive power compensation amount; and by reactive voltage sensitivity analysis module; REACTIVE POWER sensitivity equation and idle/line loss sensitivity equation according to the wind-electricity integration zone; take all factors into consideration the effect and the loss of idle adjusting; formulate the optimized allocation of the idle regulated quantity of windy electric field; and prioritization scheme is stored in the scheme database; when online computational analysis engine carries out " N-1 " security sweep to electrical network; there is out-of-limit situation if find the safety index of electrical network; according to corresponding busbar voltage; the out-of-limit situation of circuit trend; derive corresponding counter-measure by the query scheme database, and show by man-machine interface.
Described electric network fault and Voltage Stability Analysis platform also have the grid short circuit computation model that comprises blower fan electro-magnetic transient model; can on the circuit in wind-electricity integration zone and bus, carry out fault simulation and protection action emulation; analyze the electromagnetic transient of wind energy turbine set; judge whether the voltage fluctuation that this fault produces causes the wind energy turbine set off-grid; thereby define blower fan and protected sensitive area; formulate the peace prosecutor case in wind-electricity integration zone and the optimization coordinated scheme of electrical network secondary device on this basis, and prioritization scheme is stored in the scheme database.
In sum, the present invention has following advantage compared to existing technology:
This system has set up the short-term wind power prediction model that is applicable to that electricity net safety stable is analyzed, and has built the area power grid phantom that contains the wind energy turbine set dynamic model.On this basis; can analyze the REACTIVE POWER sensitivity in wind-electricity integration zone, idle/line loss sensitivity, blower fan was protected sensitive set etc., formulated on analysis foundation that windy electric field reactive power compensation is distributed rationally and regulation scheme, wind-electricity integration zone peace control strategy and secondary device are optimized coordinated scheme etc.And by the online trend calculating of the electrical network that contains wind energy turbine set, the shock effect that the fluctuation of analysis wind power generation causes for the safe operation of electrical network realizes the safety on line early warning to wind-electricity integration.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the schematic diagram based on the wind-electricity integration safety on line early warning system of short-term wind power prediction of the embodiment of the invention 1
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with embodiment the present invention is described in more detail.
Embodiment 1
Wind-electricity integration safety on line early warning system as shown in Figure 1 based on short-term wind power prediction; comprise electrical network EMS system, electric network data storehouse, wind power prediction module, wind power data storehouse, online computational analysis engine, electric network fault and Voltage Stability Analysis platform, blower fan were protected sensitive area analysis module, reactive voltage sensitivity analysis module, safe early warning and countermeasure analysis, scheme database and man-machine interface.Described online computational analysis engine is a Power Factory simulation software, carries out secondary development by the DPL/DSL language that simulation software is provided, and constructs the data-interface of this software and EMS system, can regularly read the electrical network section from the EMS system.
System regularly reads information such as output of wind electric field, power network topology, node load by the data-interface of computational analysis engine from the EMS system, and deposits the electric network data storehouse in.Being input variable with current output of wind electric field in the wind power prediction module then, is correction with the historical data, adopts based on time series analysis, and the method that auxiliary data is excavated is predicted.Wind power prediction scope and the quality evaluation of wind energy turbine set wind energy that output is calculated based on standard deviation deposit the result in wind power data storehouse.And assessment result, wind power prediction scope and the actual power curve of wind energy turbine set compared, offer the operations staff by man-machine interface.
Set up wind-powered electricity generation unit/field/group model and electric network model in the safety on line early warning computational analysis engine, computing engines regularly reads the electrical network section from the EMS system, read the wind power prediction value from wind power data storehouse, the online trend of electrical network that comprises wind energy turbine set is calculated, and draws the trend curve of each node voltage of electrical network, circuit trend.And use " N-1 " regulation analysis power network line trend, the out-of-limit situation of node voltage, and derive countermeasure by the query scheme database, realize the early warning of wind-electricity integration safety on line.
The operation of power networks analyst reads the electrical network typical section by electric network fault and Voltage Stability Analysis platform, analyzes wind energy turbine set and adopts different reactive power compensation modes to improving the contribution of wind-electricity integration area voltage stability.Take all factors into consideration the economy and the compensation effect of various reactive power compensation combinations, to formulate windy electric field and web area reactive power compensation configuration scheme.And, take all factors into consideration the effect and the loss of idle adjusting according to the REACTIVE POWER sensitivity equation and the idle/line loss sensitivity equation in wind-electricity integration zone, formulate the optimized allocation of the idle regulated quantity of windy electric field, and prioritization scheme is stored in the scheme database.
Also have the electro-magnetic transient model of blower fan at electric network fault and Voltage Stability Analysis platform; by on the circuit in wind-electricity integration zone and bus, carrying out fault simulation and protection action emulation; analyze the electromagnetic transient of wind energy turbine set; judge whether the voltage fluctuation that this fault produces causes the wind energy turbine set off-grid; thereby define blower fan and protected sensitive area; formulate the peace prosecutor case in wind-electricity integration zone and the optimization coordinated scheme of secondary device on this basis, the result is stored in scheme database.
It is same as the prior art that present embodiment is not stated part.
Claims (7)
1. wind-electricity integration safety on line early warning system based on short-term wind power prediction, it is characterized in that: comprise electrical network EMS system, the electric network data storehouse, the wind power prediction module, wind power data storehouse, online computational analysis engine, safe early warning and man-machine interface, system reads required wind power measured data from the EMS system, deposit the electric network data storehouse in, the wind power prediction module reads current output of wind electric field from the electric network data storehouse, and be input variable with current output of wind electric field, with the historical data is that correction is predicted, draw wind power prediction scope in the next time window, simultaneously the wind energy quality of wind energy turbine set is assessed, estimation range and assessment result deposit wind power data storehouse on the one hand in, show by man-machine interface on the other hand, have blower fan dynamic model and electric network model in the described online computational analysis engine, analysis engine reads the electrical network section from the EMS system, from wind power data storehouse, read the wind power prediction value, calculate with the online trend of the electrical network that comprises wind energy turbine set, draw the trend curve of each index relevant with power grid security, and pass through in maximum, minimum wind power prediction point carries out electrical network " N-1 " security sweep, analyze the out-of-limit situation of power network line and bus safety index, when online computational analysis engine carries out " N-1 " security sweep to electrical network, there is out-of-limit situation if find the safety index of electrical network, carry out safe early warning, and show by man-machine interface.
2. the wind-electricity integration safety on line early warning system based on short-term wind power prediction according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: the method for described wind power prediction module mainly adopts Time series analysis method.
3. the wind-electricity integration safety on line early warning system based on short-term wind power prediction according to claim 2 is characterized in that: the Forecasting Methodology of described wind power prediction module is also auxiliary with data mining method.
4. the wind-electricity integration safety on line early warning system based on short-term wind power prediction according to claim 3, it is characterized in that: system possesses the data-interface with electrical network EMS system, read required electrical network parameter, it comprises output of wind electric field, power network topology, node load information.
5. the wind-electricity integration safety on line early warning system based on short-term wind power prediction according to claim 4, it is characterized in that: described online computational analysis engine at first comprises the electrical network modeling of wind energy turbine set dynamic model in Power Factory simulation software, this software has the data-interface with the EMS system, can regularly read the electrical network section, and carry out simulation calculation from the EMS system.
6. according to any one described wind-electricity integration safety on line early warning system of claim 1-5 based on short-term wind power prediction; it is characterized in that: described wind-electricity integration safety on line early warning system based on short-term wind power prediction also comprises electric network fault and Voltage Stability Analysis platform; blower fan was protected the sensitive area analysis module; reactive voltage sensitivity analysis module; scheme database and countermeasure analysis module; the electrical network analysis personnel read the electrical network typical section by electric network fault and Voltage Stability Analysis platform; analyzing wind energy turbine set adopts different reactive power compensation modes to improving the contribution of line voltage stability; take all factors into consideration the economy and the compensation effect of various reactive power compensation combinations; formulate the configuration scheme of wind energy turbine set reactive power compensation amount; and by reactive voltage sensitivity analysis module; REACTIVE POWER sensitivity equation and idle/line loss sensitivity equation according to the wind-electricity integration zone; take all factors into consideration the effect and the loss of idle adjusting; formulate the optimized allocation of the idle regulated quantity of windy electric field; and prioritization scheme is stored in the scheme database; when online computational analysis engine carries out " N-1 " security sweep to electrical network; there is out-of-limit situation if find the safety index of electrical network; according to corresponding busbar voltage; the out-of-limit situation of circuit trend; derive corresponding counter-measure by the query scheme database, and show by man-machine interface.
7. the wind-electricity integration safety on line early warning system based on short-term wind power prediction according to claim 6; it is characterized in that: described electric network fault and Voltage Stability Analysis platform also have the grid short circuit computation model that comprises blower fan electro-magnetic transient model; can on the circuit in wind-electricity integration zone and bus, carry out fault simulation and protection action emulation; analyze the electromagnetic transient of wind energy turbine set; judge whether the voltage fluctuation that this fault produces causes the wind energy turbine set off-grid; thereby define blower fan and protected sensitive area; formulate the peace prosecutor case in wind-electricity integration zone and the optimization coordinated scheme of electrical network secondary device on this basis, and prioritization scheme is stored in the scheme database.
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| CN115249972B (en) * | 2022-09-22 | 2022-12-27 | 南京江行联加智能科技有限公司 | Performance evaluation system and method for wind generating set of wind power plant under big data |
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