CN102402726A - Method for predicting electric quantity of large-scale distribution network based on regional load analysis - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention provides a method for predicting electric quantity of a large-scale distribution network based on regional load analysis, and belongs to the field of power grid planning. The predicting method comprises the following steps of: dividing power supply regions; selecting a power supply region; calculating correction coefficient; performing electric quantity prediction on the selected power supply region; and predicting the electric quantity of the distribution network according to the electric quantity prediction result of the selected region. The method is high in precision, quick in calculation, strong in actual operability, simple in principle and good in flexibility; the method greatly reduces the workload of electric quantity prediction data acquisition and analytical calculation of the large-scale distribution network, and can be applied to electric quantity prediction of large-scale distribution networks of all regions in China; and by dividing the power supply regions and analyzing the load of each power supply region, the economic development patterns and the load development characteristics of the power supply regions can be better grasped, and important basis is provided for formulating more focused power grid construction schemes.

Description

A kind of extensive power distribution network quantity of electricity Forecasting Methodology of analyzing based on the zone load

Technical field

The invention belongs to the Electric Power Network Planning field, be specifically related to a kind of extensive power distribution network quantity of electricity Forecasting Methodology of analyzing based on the zone load.

Background technology

Load forecast is the important component part of Power System Planning, also is the basis of Economical Operation of Power Systems, and it is all of crucial importance with operation to Power System Planning.Load prediction work will select for use suitable method to predict to different regions with suiting measures to local conditions, is reasonably predicted the outcome, for Electric Power Network Planning provides the scientific decision foundation.

To the characteristics of load prediction and the classification of load prediction, there is multiple Forecasting Methodology at present.Load forecasting method commonly used is divided into total amount load forecasting method and saturation loading Forecasting Methodology.The total amount load forecasting method comprises classical type Forecasting Methodology and emerging Forecasting Methodology.Output value unit consumption method computation model in the wherein classical type Forecasting Methodology is simple, project period output value unit consumption definite subjective, depend on lot of statistics work and expertise; The elastic coefficient method computing method are simple, and it is bigger that elasticity coefficient is influenced by the market factor, depend on lot of statistics work and expertise; Per capita household electricity consumption method computing method are simple, and the horizontal difference of consumption per capita of different regions is bigger; The load density method computing method are simple, but definite needs of load density target are done a large amount of load investigation works.Gray model method principle in the emerging Forecasting Methodology is simple, computing convenient, the short-term forecasting precision is high, but for having the electric load that undulatory property changes, predicated error is bigger, not too is fit to long-term forecasting; The expert system approach construction cycle is long, depends on the quantity of information of knowledge base, and it is big to implement difficulty; The neural network method has self-learning function, and precision of prediction is higher under the sufficient situation of sample, but adequate sample to obtain difficulty bigger.

The load prediction work of science can not be pursued complicated advanced mathematical method simply, or pursues the precision of data fitting simply, thereby has ignored the characteristics of electric system itself.But should in conjunction with the various factors that influences the load prediction accuracy, comprehensively select suitable Forecasting Methodology for use according to the condition and the actual needs of load prediction.For extensive power distribution network; Because its service area is wide; Zones of different load present situation and development trend are variant; Also there are very big-difference in interregional Economic Development Mode and construction scheme, especially in whole power distribution network service area, carry out the required related data of load prediction to obtain difficulty bigger, adopt conventional method to carry out the quantity of electricity prediction and have sizable workload and implement difficulty.

Summary of the invention

In order to overcome the deficiency of above-mentioned prior art; The present invention provides a kind of extensive power distribution network quantity of electricity Forecasting Methodology of analyzing based on the zone load, and extensive power distribution network is divided into several types of power supply areas, from every type of power supply area, selects one or several zones to analyze; Analysis and arrangement through data such as each regional historical load, electric weight rising tendency and part throttle characteristics; In conjunction with historical rising tendency of GDP per capita and prediction case, dope each regional load electric weight demand, build and development program with reference to saturation loading level and each regional economy in flourishing city simultaneously; Draw the load density of all kinds of power supply areas; In conjunction with the power supply area of all kinds of power supply areas, the static growth and the dynamic change of consideration of regional simultaneously, and then dope the load electric weight of extensive power distribution network.

In order to realize the foregoing invention purpose, the present invention adopts following technical scheme:

A kind of extensive power distribution network quantity of electricity Forecasting Methodology of analyzing based on the zone load, said Forecasting Methodology comprises following five steps:

(1) divides power supply area;

(2) select power supply area;

(3) calculate correction factor;

(4) power supply area of selecting is carried out the quantity of electricity prediction;

(5) predict the power distribution network quantity of electricity according to the quantity of electricity prediction result in selected zone.

It is that administrative grade, economic development situation and electric power characteristics factor according to the zone is divided into following 6 types of power supply areas with the service area of power distribution network: urban core construction district, urban development district, flourishing cities and towns, general cities and towns, general rural area, outlying rural area that said step (1) is divided power supply area.

Divide said power supply area based on following index:

1) the year GDP per capita in zone;

2) composition of industry in zone;

3) the year power distribution network delivery per capita in zone;

4) load density in zone;

5) the load growth situation in zone.

Said load density represent the to load quantization parameter of densely distributed degree, it is every square kilometre an average electric power numerical value, with MW/km ²Metering.

Said step (2) is selected power supply area to be meant from 6 types of power supply areas dividing and is respectively selected several zones, and analyzes the data in selected zone, therefrom selects one or several zone.

The process that said step (3) is calculated correction factor may further comprise the steps:

1) the existing load and the electric weight of statistics institute favored area;

2) calculate selected area unit power supply area load and electric weight, result of calculation is as the load and the electric weight index of all kinds of said power supply area units power supply area;

3) the power supply area of all kinds of said power supply areas in the statistics service area;

4) unit area loading, electric weight index and the power supply area according to said power supply area calculates the existing total load L of power distribution network in the said service area _{0 ∑}With electric weight Q _{0 ∑}

5) according to the existing L that loads of the reality of power distribution network ₀With electric weight Q ₀Calculated load correction factor k ₁With electric weight correction factor k ₂, wherein:

$k_1=\frac{L_0}{L_{0\mathrm{\Σ}}};$ $k_2=\frac{Q_0}{Q_{0\mathrm{\Σ}}}.$

Said step (4) is carried out the electric power network prediction to the zone of selecting and specifically may further comprise the steps:

1) the historical load rising tendency and the part throttle characteristics of analysis institute favored area;

2) the load growth point of analysis institute favored area;

3) confirm load forecasting method according to the analysis result of historical load and load growth point, collect the load prediction related data;

4) institute's favored area quantity of electricity is predicted, and carried out verification, as all kinds of power supply area load density predicted values to predicting the outcome.

Said step (5) is carried out extensive power distribution network quantity of electricity prediction according to the quantity of electricity prediction result in selected zone and specifically may further comprise the steps:

1), calculates all kinds of power supply area prediction load L according to all kinds of said power supply area load density predicted values and power supply area _Ai(i=1 ..., n) with electric weight Q _Ai(i=1 ..., n);

2) said all kinds of power supply area prediction loads and electric weight are gathered, obtain the extensive power distribution network prediction of universe load initial value L _∑And prediction power quantity predicting initial value Q _∑, wherein:

$L_{\mathrm{\Σ}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{L}_{\mathrm{Ai}};$ $Q_{\mathrm{\Σ}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{Q}_{\mathrm{Ai}};$

3) utilize the correction factor k of said load ₁Correction factor k with electric weight ₂Proofread and correct, obtain the extensive power distribution network load prediction of universe value L and power quantity predicting value Q, wherein:

L＝L _∑×k ₁，Q＝Q _∑×k ₂。

Compare with prior art, beneficial effect of the present invention is:

1. precision is higher, calculates soon, has stronger actual operability;

2. principle is simple, and dirigibility is good;

3. reduce the workload of extensive power distribution network quantity of electricity data predicted collection and analytical calculation significantly, can be applicable in the quantity of electricity prediction of China's extensive power distribution network in all kinds of areas;

4. divide through power supply area and, can better hold the Economic Development Mode and the load developing characteristics of every type of power supply area, important evidence is provided for formulating the power grid construction scheme more targetedly to the load analysis of each power supply area.

Description of drawings

Fig. 1 is based on the process flow diagram of the extensive power distribution network quantity of electricity Forecasting Methodology of zone load analysis;

Fig. 2 carries out extensive power distribution network quantity of electricity prediction process flow diagram according to the quantity of electricity prediction result in selected zone.

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing the present invention is made further supplementary notes.

Said Forecasting Methodology comprises following five steps:

(1) divides power supply area;

(2) select power supply area;

(3) calculate correction factor;

(4) power supply area of selecting is carried out the quantity of electricity prediction;

(5) predict the power distribution network quantity of electricity according to the quantity of electricity prediction result in selected zone.

It is that administrative grade, economic development situation and electric power characteristics factor according to the zone is divided into following 6 types of power supply areas with the service area of power distribution network: urban core construction district, urban development district, flourishing cities and towns, general cities and towns, general rural area, outlying rural area that said step (1) is divided power supply area.

Divide said power supply area based on following index:

1) the year GDP per capita in zone;

2) composition of industry in zone;

3) the year power distribution network delivery per capita in zone;

4) load density in zone;

5) the load growth situation in zone.

Said load density represent the to load quantization parameter of densely distributed degree, it is every square kilometre an average electric power numerical value, with MW/km ²Metering.

Said step (2) is selected power supply area to be meant from 6 types of power supply areas dividing and is respectively selected several zones, and analyzes the data in selected zone, therefrom selects one or several zone.

The process that said step (3) is calculated correction factor may further comprise the steps:

1) the existing load and the electric weight of statistics institute favored area;

2) calculate selected area unit power supply area load and electric weight, result of calculation is as the load and the electric weight index of all kinds of said power supply area units power supply area;

3) the power supply area of all kinds of said power supply areas in the statistics service area;

4) unit area loading, electric weight index and the power supply area according to said power supply area calculates the existing total load L of power distribution network in the said service area _{0 ∑}With electric weight Q _{0 ∑}

5) according to the existing L that loads of the reality of power distribution network ₀With electric weight Q ₀Calculated load correction factor k ₁With electric weight correction factor k ₂, wherein:

$k_1=\frac{L_0}{L_{0\mathrm{\Σ}}};$ $k_2=\frac{Q_0}{Q_{0\mathrm{\Σ}}}.$

Said step (4) is carried out the electric power network prediction to the zone of selecting and specifically may further comprise the steps:

1) the historical load rising tendency and the part throttle characteristics of analysis institute favored area;

2) the load growth point of analysis institute favored area;

3) confirm load forecasting method according to the analysis result of historical load and load growth point, collect the load prediction related data;

4) institute's favored area quantity of electricity is predicted, and carried out verification, as all kinds of power supply area load density predicted values to predicting the outcome.

Said step (5) is carried out extensive power distribution network quantity of electricity prediction according to the quantity of electricity prediction result in selected zone and specifically may further comprise the steps:

1), calculates all kinds of power supply area prediction load L according to all kinds of said power supply area load density predicted values and power supply area _Ai(i=1 ..., n) with electric weight Q _Ai(i=1 ..., n);

2) said all kinds of power supply area prediction loads and electric weight are gathered, obtain the extensive power distribution network prediction of universe load initial value L _∑And prediction power quantity predicting initial value Q _∑, wherein:

$L_{\mathrm{\Σ}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{L}_{\mathrm{Ai}};$ $Q_{\mathrm{\Σ}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{Q}_{\mathrm{Ai}};$

3) utilize the correction factor k of said load ₁Correction factor k with electric weight ₂Proofread and correct, obtain the extensive power distribution network load prediction of universe value L and power quantity predicting value Q, wherein:

L＝L _∑×k ₁，Q＝Q _∑×k ₂。

Claims (8)

1. extensive power distribution network quantity of electricity Forecasting Methodology of analyzing based on zone load, it is characterized in that: said Forecasting Methodology comprises following five steps:

(1) divides power supply area;

(2) select power supply area;

(3) calculate correction factor;

(4) power supply area of selecting is carried out the quantity of electricity prediction;

(5) predict the power distribution network quantity of electricity according to the quantity of electricity prediction result in selected zone.

2. a kind of extensive power distribution network quantity of electricity Forecasting Methodology of analyzing based on zone load according to claim 1 is characterized in that: it is that administrative grade, economic development situation and electric power characteristics factor according to the zone is divided into following 6 types of power supply areas with the service area of power distribution network: urban core construction district, urban development district, flourishing cities and towns, general cities and towns, general rural area, outlying rural area that said step (1) is divided power supply area.

3. a kind of extensive power distribution network quantity of electricity Forecasting Methodology of analyzing based on the zone load according to claim 2 is characterized in that: divide said power supply area according to following index:

1) the year GDP per capita in zone;

2) composition of industry in zone;

3) the year power distribution network delivery per capita in zone;

4) load density in zone;

5) the load growth situation in zone.

4. a kind of extensive power distribution network quantity of electricity Forecasting Methodology of analyzing based on the zone load according to claim 3; It is characterized in that: said load density represent the to load quantization parameter of densely distributed degree; It is every square kilometre an average electric power numerical value, with MW/km ²Metering.

5. a kind of extensive power distribution network quantity of electricity Forecasting Methodology of analyzing based on the zone load according to claim 1; It is characterized in that: said step (2) is selected power supply area to be meant from 6 types of power supply areas dividing and is respectively selected several zones; And analyze the data in selected zone, therefrom select one or several zone.

6. a kind of extensive power distribution network quantity of electricity Forecasting Methodology of analyzing based on the zone load according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: the process that said step (3) is calculated correction factor may further comprise the steps:

1) the existing load and the electric weight of statistics institute favored area;

2) calculate selected area unit power supply area load and electric weight, result of calculation is as the load and the electric weight index of all kinds of said power supply area units power supply area;

3) the power supply area of all kinds of said power supply areas in the statistics service area;

4) unit area loading, electric weight index and the power supply area according to said power supply area calculates the existing total load L of power distribution network in the said service area _{0 ∑}With electric weight Q _{0 ∑}

5) according to the existing L that loads of the reality of power distribution network ₀With electric weight Q ₀Calculated load correction factor k ₁With electric weight correction factor k ₂, wherein:

$k_1=\frac{L_0}{L_{0\mathrm{\Σ}}};$ $k_2=\frac{Q_0}{Q_{0\mathrm{\Σ}}}.$

7. a kind of extensive power distribution network quantity of electricity Forecasting Methodology of analyzing based on the zone load according to claim 1 is characterized in that: said step (4) is carried out the quantity of electricity prediction to the zone of selecting and specifically may further comprise the steps:

1) the historical load rising tendency and the part throttle characteristics of analysis institute favored area;

2) the load growth point of analysis institute favored area;

3) confirm load forecasting method according to the analysis result of historical load and load growth point, collect the load prediction related data;

4) institute's favored area quantity of electricity is predicted, and carried out verification, as all kinds of power supply area load density predicted values to predicting the outcome.

8. a kind of extensive power distribution network quantity of electricity Forecasting Methodology of analyzing based on the zone load according to claim 1 is characterized in that: said step (5) is carried out extensive power distribution network quantity of electricity prediction according to the quantity of electricity prediction result in selected zone and specifically may further comprise the steps:

1), calculates all kinds of power supply area prediction load L according to all kinds of said power supply area load density predicted values and power supply area _Ai(i=1 ..., n) with electric weight Q _Ai(i=1 ..., n);

2) said all kinds of power supply area prediction loads and electric weight are gathered, obtain the extensive power distribution network prediction of universe load initial value L _∑And prediction electric weight initial value Q _∑, wherein:

$L_{\mathrm{\Σ}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{L}_{\mathrm{Ai}};$ $Q_{\mathrm{\Σ}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{Q}_{\mathrm{Ai}};$

3) utilize the correction factor k of said load ₁Correction factor k with electric weight ₂Proofread and correct, obtain the extensive power distribution network load prediction of universe value L and power quantity predicting value Q, wherein:

L＝L _∑×k ₁，Q＝Q _∑×k ₂。

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