CN1828645A - Town power distribution network simultaneity factor load prediction method - Google Patents
Town power distribution network simultaneity factor load prediction method Download PDFInfo
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- CN1828645A CN1828645A CNA2006100255010A CN200610025501A CN1828645A CN 1828645 A CN1828645 A CN 1828645A CN A2006100255010 A CNA2006100255010 A CN A2006100255010A CN 200610025501 A CN200610025501 A CN 200610025501A CN 1828645 A CN1828645 A CN 1828645A
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Abstract
The disclosed method comprises: analyzing the land use of planning area; with load density index method, predicting the geometrical distribution saturation; multiplying the first level coincidence factor to the land load according to the different power-consume load to the setup of middle-voltage distribution substation and switch station; similar processing with the second factor for the high-voltage transformer substation; multiplying the third coincidence factor for the large-scale area for address selection of last level network transformer substation; wherein, the last two selection all accord with the local load running curve and load share. This invention saves investment and source.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to take into account in a kind of distribution network planning the load forecasting method of simultaneity factor, particularly a kind of town power distribution network is taken into account the load forecasting method of multistage simultaneity factor.
Background technology
In recent years, the development of inner city, Shanghai City is advanced by leaps and bounds, and construction achievement is obvious to all.But suburbanization level, city-building looks, planning construction level etc. all lag behind far away, are not complementary with the inner city.For this reason, it is " the suburb urbanization development strategy " at center that literary composition of municipal government in 2003 proposes with " a Cheng Jiu town ", that is: Tenth Five-Year Plan Period, the task of inner city is to improve environment, perfect, raising city taste, and focus will be transferred in the construction of suburb, and the town development policy that implement key breakthrough, advances in order is to form the urban system of reasonable classification; The construction of emphasizing " a Cheng Jiu town " simultaneously will be introduced advanced design concept, improves the starting point and the level of town planning.Therefore, urban power distribution network planning as the important foundation facility seems particularly important, town power distribution network is made an investment in and has been accounted for very big ratio in the whole infrastructure project, the optimization of urban power distribution network planning can reduce blindly unordered construction and duplicate construction, saves urban resource, improve user's power supply reliability and economy, improve people's living standard, promote the Shanghai Urban image, and then produce huge economic benefit and social effect.Certainly, urban power network planning research also has very important directive significance to the outskirts of a town electric network reconstruction.
Both at home and abroad the urban power network planning Study on Technology is paid much attention at present, under the prerequisite that guarantees power network safety operation, adopted such as artificial intelligence technology, gray theory and various optimized Algorithm electrical network has been optimized planning, reliability and economy in order to improving mains supply have obtained many achievements.But such planning mainly stresses at Transmission Expansion Planning in Electric and power source planning, and is not enough to distribution network planning research; And distribution network planning is the element task that the urban power grid is built, and is the important component part of city overall development plan; Along with improving constantly of living standards of the people, the horizontal sharp increase of power load causes distribution network more complicated.Because this complicacy of distribution network and the many uncertain factors that in planning in long term, exist, the power supply point number that traditional distribution network planning technology is determined, position, amount of capacity, powering mode, the mode of connection, equipment disposition etc. have been difficult to satisfy the power requirement that each side changes, and dirigibility and adaptability are relatively poor.
Summary of the invention
The objective of the invention is in order to make distribution network planning can satisfy the power requirement of each electric pressure load, perspective, scientific, the adaptability that improves that Electric Power Network Planning builds, economy, the feature of environmental protection provide a kind of town power distribution network simultaneity factor load prediction method.
Technical scheme of the present invention is: a kind of town power distribution network simultaneity factor load prediction method, be characterized in adopting multistage simultaneity factor model in the load prediction, and method step is:
1. the planning region land used is analyzed;
2. carry out the prediction of geographic distribution saturation loading with the load density target method;
3. load total value in congeniality plot is used for the setting of medium-voltage distribution station and switchyard by difference in functionality first order simultaneity factor coefficient respectively;
4. the total load meter second level, heterogeneity plot simultaneity factor coefficient is used for the addressing constant volume of high voltage substation;
5. to the addressing constant volume foundation of the bigger planning region total load meter third level simultaneity factor coefficient of a plurality of high voltage substation land scales of need as upper level power transmission network transformer station;
First order simultaneity factor is determined according to power unit load operation characteristics all kinds of congenialities plot; Second and third grade simultaneity factor is determined according to each function plot load operation curve and each functional burdening proportion.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows, counting once the method for comprehensive simultaneity factor coefficient when this simultaneity factor load prediction method gathers with traditional load prediction compares, change, the capacity of distribution substation setting and the scale and the corresponding supply load of quantity and distribution networks at different levels mate more, thereby make power distribution network planning scheme under the prerequisite of not sacrificing power supply reliability, reduce investment outlay, economize on resources.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the simultaneity factor load prediction illustraton of model.
Embodiment
Town power distribution network planning adopts the load density target method to carry out the geographic distribution load prediction usually, be about to the planning region and be divided into the several function plot (as A-01....., B-01.....), obtain each plot floor area or floor area of building according to urban construction planning, determine its distant view load density (MW/km according to factors such as each plot function and position level again
2) or load index (W/m
2), thereby employing load density target method calculates each function plot distant view saturation loading, gathers on this basis to obtain the planning region total load.Because the peak load of each power unit of congeniality plot and heterogeneity ground interblock peak load do not occur simultaneously, therefore when amounting to, load should consider the influence of simultaneity factor.The present invention by difference in functionality first order simultaneity factor coefficient respectively, is used for the setting of medium-voltage distribution station and switchyard to congeniality plot load total value; To the total load meter second level, heterogeneity plot simultaneity factor coefficient, be used for the addressing constant volume of high voltage substation.The planning region bigger to land scale often needs a plurality of high voltage substations, and each transformer station's peak load does not also occur simultaneously, thus planning region total load meter third level simultaneity factor, as the foundation of upper level power transmission network transformer station planning.First order simultaneity factor is determined according to the inner different power unit load operation characteristics in all kinds of congenialities plot; Second and third grade simultaneity factor is determined according to each function plot load operation curve and each functional burdening proportion.Set up the simultaneity factor load prediction model like this.
The once comprehensive simultaneity factor coefficient of meter was compared when the multistage simultaneity factor model of this load prediction of using towards engineering gathered with traditional load prediction, became, the capacity of distribution substation setting and the scale and the corresponding supply load of quantity and distribution networks at different levels mate more.Thereby make the distribution programme more reasonable, both guaranteed reliable power supply, paid attention to again economizing on resources.
Embodiment:
Certain planning region is divided into A, B, three zones of C, and each zone is divided into the plurality of sub plot by function, and the saturation loading prediction is carried out according to the load density target method in each sub-plot, calculates first order simultaneity factor coefficient afterload value thus, and is as shown in table 1.On the basis of geographic distribution load prediction, load by functional classification and to gather, can obtain types of functionality load proportion simultaneously, calculate the second level again and third level simultaneity factor coefficient afterload gathers value, as shown in table 2.The simultaneity factor load prediction model is seen Fig. 1.
Certain planning region of table 1 is based on geographic distribution load prediction summary sheet
| The ground block number | Land used character | Floor area (hectare) | Floor area of building (ten thousand m 2) | Load density (MW/km 2) | Load index (W/m 2) | Saturation loading (MW) | First order simultaneity factor afterload (MW) |
| A-01 | Residential estate | 6.8 | 8.84 | 60 | 5.30 | 3.18 | |
| A-04 | The parking lot land used | 0.69 | 5 | 0.03 | 0.02 | ||
| A-05 | Residential estate | 5.92 | 7.69 | 60 | 4.62 | 2.77 | |
| A-11 | Commercial through melting land used | 1.45 | 1.74 | 70 | 1.22 | 0.85 | |
| | |||||||
| B-01 | Urban operating mechanism | 0.37 | 30 | 0.11 | 0.08 | ||
| B-05 | Commercial through melting land used | 1.68 | 2.01 | 70 | 1.41 | 0.99 | |
| B-06 | The health care land used | 3.35 | 30 | 1.01 | 0.71 | ||
| B-21 | The education land used | 1.42 | 1.7 | 30 | 0.51 | 0.36 | |
| | |||||||
| C-21 | Entertainment | 2.2 | 80 | 1.76 | 1.23 | ||
| C-22 | Residential estate | 10.63 | 13.82 | 60 | 8.29 | 4.97 | |
| C-24 | Commercial through melting land used | 4.27 | 5.12 | 70 | 3.59 | 2.51 | |
| Add up to | 454.58 | ||||||
| Consider that first order simultaneity factor afterload amounts to | 297.96 | ||||||
Certain planning region classification load prediction table of table 2
| Land used character | Land area (hectare) | Floor area of building (ten thousand m 2) | Load index (W/m 2) | Load density (MW/km 2) | Load (MW) | Load proportion (%) |
| Residential estate | 249.76 | 327.79 | 60 | 196.67 | 43.26 | |
| The education land used | 17.1 | 20.52 | 30 | 6.16 | 1.36 | |
| The commercial land | 64.44 | 77.33 | 70 | 54.13 | 11.91 | |
| The merchant lives land used | 6.91 | 8.29 | 70 | 5.8 | 1.28 | |
| Administrative office land used | 6.65 | 8.65 | 75 | 6.49 | 1.43 | |
| The entertainment land used | 2.2 | 80 | 1.76 | 0.39 | ||
| The health care land used | 3.53 | 305 | 1.06 | 0.23 | ||
| | ||||||
| General industrial land | 118.66 | 35 | 41.53 | 9.14 | ||
| Gongjian's land used | 48.47 | 65.51 | 50 | 32.76 | 7.21 | |
| The logistics land used | 269.88 | 20 | 53.98 | 11.87 | ||
| Land use for greening | 253.2 | 2 | 2 | 5.06 | 1.11 | |
| Land for roads | 155.52 | 2 | 2 | 3.11 | 0.68 | |
| Add up to | 454.58 | 100 | ||||
| Consider that first order simultaneity factor afterload amounts to | 297.76 | -- | ||||
| Consider that second level simultaneity factor afterload amounts to | 253.10 | -- | ||||
| Consider that third level simultaneity factor afterload amounts to | 227.79 | -- | ||||
Claims (1)
1, a kind of town power distribution network simultaneity factor load prediction method is characterized in that adopting multistage simultaneity factor model in the load prediction, and method step is:
1) the planning region land used is analyzed;
2) carry out the prediction of geographic distribution saturation loading with the load density target method;
3) load total value in congeniality plot is used for the setting of medium-voltage distribution station and switchyard by difference in functionality first order simultaneity factor coefficient respectively;
4) the total load meter second level, heterogeneity plot simultaneity factor coefficient is used for the addressing constant volume of high voltage substation;
5) to the addressing constant volume foundation of the bigger planning region total load meter third level simultaneity factor coefficient of a plurality of high voltage substation land scales of need as upper level power transmission network transformer station;
First order simultaneity factor is determined according to power unit load operation characteristics all kinds of congenialities plot; Second and third grade simultaneity factor is determined according to each function plot load operation curve and each functional burdening proportion.
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Cited By (8)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN100454317C (en) * | 2007-08-23 | 2009-01-21 | 上海交通大学 | Electrified wire netting layout computer auxiliary decision-making support system |
| CN102033999A (en) * | 2010-12-10 | 2011-04-27 | 天津天大求实电力新技术股份有限公司 | Load distribution based method for calculating recently planned annual line loss of medium-voltage distribution network |
| CN102402726A (en) * | 2011-11-04 | 2012-04-04 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Method for predicting electric quantity of large-scale distribution network based on regional load analysis |
| CN102521509A (en) * | 2011-12-13 | 2012-06-27 | 重庆市电力公司万州供电局 | Method for achieving optimal location of distribution transformer by improved iterative algorithm |
| CN102708426A (en) * | 2012-06-29 | 2012-10-03 | 山东电力集团公司电力科学研究院 | Power supply capacity planning system and method for intelligent community including electric vehicle charging facilities |
| CN104573848A (en) * | 2014-12-09 | 2015-04-29 | 国网青海省电力公司经济技术研究院 | Power demand prediction and planning and reliability-based power distribution network construction method |
| CN106650986A (en) * | 2016-09-13 | 2017-05-10 | 云南电网有限责任公司 | Method and device for forecasting regional maximum loads of power distribution network |
| CN109217380A (en) * | 2018-11-05 | 2019-01-15 | 国家电网有限公司 | A kind of abandonment is rationed the power supply method and device |
-
2006
- 2006-04-07 CN CNA2006100255010A patent/CN1828645A/en active Pending
Cited By (12)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN100454317C (en) * | 2007-08-23 | 2009-01-21 | 上海交通大学 | Electrified wire netting layout computer auxiliary decision-making support system |
| CN102033999A (en) * | 2010-12-10 | 2011-04-27 | 天津天大求实电力新技术股份有限公司 | Load distribution based method for calculating recently planned annual line loss of medium-voltage distribution network |
| CN102033999B (en) * | 2010-12-10 | 2012-10-17 | 天津天大求实电力新技术股份有限公司 | Load distribution based method for calculating recently planned annual line loss of medium-voltage distribution network |
| CN102402726A (en) * | 2011-11-04 | 2012-04-04 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Method for predicting electric quantity of large-scale distribution network based on regional load analysis |
| CN102402726B (en) * | 2011-11-04 | 2014-08-27 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Method for predicting electric quantity of large-scale distribution network based on regional load analysis |
| CN102521509A (en) * | 2011-12-13 | 2012-06-27 | 重庆市电力公司万州供电局 | Method for achieving optimal location of distribution transformer by improved iterative algorithm |
| CN102708426A (en) * | 2012-06-29 | 2012-10-03 | 山东电力集团公司电力科学研究院 | Power supply capacity planning system and method for intelligent community including electric vehicle charging facilities |
| CN102708426B (en) * | 2012-06-29 | 2015-07-15 | 国家电网公司 | Power supply capacity planning system and method for intelligent community including electric vehicle charging facilities |
| CN104573848A (en) * | 2014-12-09 | 2015-04-29 | 国网青海省电力公司经济技术研究院 | Power demand prediction and planning and reliability-based power distribution network construction method |
| CN106650986A (en) * | 2016-09-13 | 2017-05-10 | 云南电网有限责任公司 | Method and device for forecasting regional maximum loads of power distribution network |
| CN109217380A (en) * | 2018-11-05 | 2019-01-15 | 国家电网有限公司 | A kind of abandonment is rationed the power supply method and device |
| CN109217380B (en) * | 2018-11-05 | 2021-09-07 | 国家电网有限公司 | Wind-abandoning and electricity-limiting method and device |
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Open date: 20060906 |