WO2023053236A1 - 需要予測装置及び需要予測方法 - Google Patents

需要予測装置及び需要予測方法 Download PDF

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WO2023053236A1
WO2023053236A1 PCT/JP2021/035737 JP2021035737W WO2023053236A1 WO 2023053236 A1 WO2023053236 A1 WO 2023053236A1 JP 2021035737 W JP2021035737 W JP 2021035737W WO 2023053236 A1 WO2023053236 A1 WO 2023053236A1
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data
demand
index
unit
degree
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English (en)
French (fr)
Japanese (ja)
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敬純 小部
瞭 松村
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Mitsubishi Electric Corp
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Mitsubishi Electric Corp
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Priority to PCT/JP2021/035737 priority Critical patent/WO2023053236A1/ja
Priority to JP2022505545A priority patent/JP7162774B1/ja
Priority to CN202180102379.5A priority patent/CN117999569A/zh
Priority to DE112021008029.6T priority patent/DE112021008029T5/de
Publication of WO2023053236A1 publication Critical patent/WO2023053236A1/ja
Priority to US18/424,434 priority patent/US20240169377A1/en
Anticipated expiration legal-status Critical
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING OR CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q30/00—Commerce
    • G06Q30/02—Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
    • G06Q30/0201—Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
    • G06Q30/0202—Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING OR CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q30/00—Commerce
    • G06Q30/02—Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02P—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION OR PROCESSING OF GOODS
    • Y02P90/00—Enabling technologies with a potential contribution to greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions mitigation
    • Y02P90/30—Computing systems specially adapted for manufacturing

Definitions

  • the present disclosure relates to a demand forecasting device and a demand forecasting method.
  • Economic indicators include, for example, economic trends, average stock prices, or fuel prices.
  • one or more economic indicators given to the analysis model include not only economic indicators highly related to product demand but also economic indicators having low relatedness. may be included. When economic indicators with low relevance are included, there is a problem that the result of demand prediction by the analysis model may deviate from the future demand for the product.
  • the present disclosure has been made in order to solve the above-described problems. To obtain a demand forecasting device and a demand forecasting method capable of preventing the result of forecasting demand from deviating from the future demand of a product even if it is included.
  • the demand forecasting device includes demand data indicating temporal changes in past demand for products subject to demand forecasting, and indicator candidate data indicating each of a plurality of indicators that are candidates for indicators related to the past demand. and a degree-of-relevance calculation unit that calculates the degree of association between the index indicated by each index candidate data obtained by the data obtaining unit and the demand indicated by the demand data obtained by the data obtaining unit. Then, based on the degree of association calculated by the degree-of-association calculation unit, index data used in demand forecast processing for predicting future demand for the product is extracted from the plurality of index candidate data acquired by the data acquisition unit. and a demand prediction unit that performs demand prediction processing using the index data extracted by the index data extraction unit.
  • the demand prediction result is It is possible to prevent divergence from the future demand of
  • FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram showing a demand forecasting system 1 including a demand forecasting device 4 according to Embodiment 1.
  • FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram showing a decision support device 2 and a demand prediction device 4 according to Embodiment 1;
  • FIG. 2 is a hardware configuration diagram showing hardware of the demand prediction device 4 according to Embodiment 1.
  • FIG. 2 is a hardware configuration diagram of a computer when the demand forecasting device 4 is realized by software, firmware, or the like;
  • FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram showing a learning device 3 and a demand prediction device 4 according to Embodiment 1;
  • FIG. 2 is a hardware configuration diagram showing hardware of the learning device 3 according to Embodiment 1.
  • FIG. 3 is a hardware configuration diagram of a computer when the learning device 3 is realized by software, firmware, or the like;
  • FIG. 4 is a flow chart showing a demand forecasting method, which is a processing procedure of the demand forecasting device 4;
  • FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of index candidate data;
  • 4 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure of the learning device 3; It is explanatory drawing which shows the input-output relationship of one prediction model.
  • FIG. 10 is a configuration diagram showing a decision support device 2 and a demand prediction device 4 according to Embodiment 2;
  • FIG. 4 is a hardware configuration diagram showing hardware of a demand prediction device 4 according to Embodiment 2;
  • 4 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of setting data B;
  • FIG. 11 is a configuration diagram showing a decision support device 2 and a demand prediction device 4 according to Embodiment 3;
  • FIG. 11 is a hardware configuration diagram showing hardware of a demand prediction device 4 according to Em
  • FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram showing a demand forecasting system 1 including a demand forecasting device 4 according to Embodiment 1.
  • a demand forecasting system 1 shown in FIG. 1 includes a decision support device 2 , a learning device 3 and a demand forecasting device 4 .
  • FIG. 2 is a configuration diagram showing the decision support device 2 and the demand prediction device 4 according to Embodiment 1.
  • FIG. 3 is a hardware configuration diagram showing hardware of the demand prediction device 4 according to the first embodiment.
  • the decision support device 2 has an analysis result output unit 11 and a display unit 12 .
  • the analysis result output unit 11 and display unit 12 will be described later.
  • the learning device 3 generates a prediction model used for demand prediction processing by the demand prediction device 4 .
  • the demand prediction device 4 includes a data acquisition unit 21, a data storage unit 22, a degree of association calculation unit 23, an index data extraction unit 24, a prediction model storage unit 25, a prediction model selection unit 26, a demand prediction unit 27, and a display data output unit 28. It has
  • the data acquisition unit 21 is realized by, for example, a data acquisition circuit 31 shown in FIG.
  • the data acquisition unit 21 acquires demand data D that indicates temporal changes in past demand for products targeted for demand forecasting.
  • the demand data D is, for example, time-series data indicating demand at a plurality of times included in the period TP1.
  • the index candidate data In is , for example, time-series data indicating indices at a plurality of times included in the period TP2.
  • the period TP1 related to the demand data D may be the same period as the period TP2 related to the index candidate data In , or the period TP1 related to the demand data D may be the same as the period TP2 related to the index candidate data. It may be a future period after the period TP2 related to In . If the period TP1 of the demand data D is later than the period TP2 of the candidate index data In , the demand data D is time-shifted with respect to the candidate index data In . For example, if the time shift is two months and the period TP2 related to the index candidate data In is the period from August 1st to August 31st, the period TP1 related to the demand data D is October 1st. It is the period from the day to October 31st.
  • the data acquisition unit 21 outputs each of the index candidate data I 1 to I N and the demand data D to the data storage unit 22 .
  • the data storage unit 22 is realized by, for example, the data storage circuit 32 shown in FIG.
  • the data storage unit 22 stores each of the index candidate data I 1 to I N and the demand data D output from the data acquisition unit 21 .
  • the degree-of-association calculator 23 is realized by, for example, a degree-of-association calculation circuit 33 shown in FIG.
  • the index data extraction unit 24 is implemented by, for example, an index data extraction circuit 34 shown in FIG.
  • M is an integer of 1 or more and N or less.
  • the index data extractor 24 outputs the demand data D to the forecast model selector 26 .
  • the prediction model storage unit 25 is implemented by, for example, the prediction model storage circuit 35 shown in FIG.
  • the prediction model storage unit 25 stores G prediction models PM 1 to PM G generated by the learning device 3 .
  • the prediction model selection unit 26 is realized by the prediction model selection circuit 36 shown in FIG. 3, for example.
  • the demand prediction unit 27 is realized by, for example, a demand prediction circuit 37 shown in FIG.
  • Demand forecast processing is performed.
  • the demand prediction unit 27 outputs the demand prediction result R to the display data output unit 28 .
  • the display data output unit 28 is implemented by, for example, a display data output circuit 38 shown in FIG.
  • the display data output unit 28 acquires the demand prediction result R from the demand prediction unit 27 .
  • the display data output unit 28 generates display data H for displaying the demand prediction result R, and outputs the display data H to the display unit 12 .
  • the display unit 12 displays the demand prediction result R on the display according to the display data H output from the display data output unit 28 .
  • the display unit 12 displays each of the index data I 1 ′ to I M ′ and the demand data D on the display.
  • data acquisition unit 21, data storage unit 22, relevance calculation unit 23, index data extraction unit 24, prediction model storage unit 25, prediction model selection unit 26, and demand prediction unit, which are components of demand prediction device 4 27 and the display data output unit 28 are assumed to be implemented by dedicated hardware as shown in FIG. That is, the demand prediction device 4 includes a data acquisition circuit 31, a data storage circuit 32, a degree of association calculation circuit 33, an index data extraction circuit 34, a prediction model storage circuit 35, a prediction model selection circuit 36, a demand prediction circuit 37, and a display data output. It is assumed that it is implemented by circuit 38 .
  • each of the data storage circuit 32 and the prediction model storage circuit 35 is, for example, a RAM (Random Access Memory), a ROM (Read Only Memory), a flash memory, an EPROM (Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory), an EEPROM (Electrically Erasable Programmable nonvolatile or volatile semiconductor memory such as Read Only Memory), magnetic disk, flexible disk, optical disk, compact disk, mini disk, or DVD (Digital Versatile Disc).
  • Each of the data acquisition circuit 31, the degree-of-relevance calculation circuit 33, the index data extraction circuit 34, the prediction model selection circuit 36, the demand prediction circuit 37, and the display data output circuit 38 is, for example, a single circuit, a composite circuit, or a programmable circuit. processors, parallel-programmed processors, ASICs (Application Specific Integrated Circuits), FPGAs (Field-Programmable Gate Arrays), or combinations thereof.
  • the components of the demand forecasting device 4 are not limited to those realized by dedicated hardware, but the demand forecasting device 4 may be realized by software, firmware, or a combination of software and firmware. good too.
  • Software or firmware is stored as a program in a computer's memory.
  • a computer means hardware that executes a program, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a central processing unit, a processing unit, an arithmetic unit, a microprocessor, a microcomputer, a processor, or a DSP (Digital Signal Processor). do.
  • FIG. 4 is a hardware configuration diagram of a computer when the demand forecasting device 4 is implemented by software, firmware, or the like.
  • the data storage unit 22 and the forecast model storage unit 25 are configured on the memory 41 of the computer.
  • a program for causing a computer to execute respective processing procedures in the data acquisition unit 21, the relevance calculation unit 23, the index data extraction unit 24, the prediction model selection unit 26, the demand prediction unit 27, and the display data output unit 28 is stored in the memory 41.
  • the processor 42 of the computer executes the program stored in the memory 41 .
  • FIG. 3 shows an example in which each component of the demand prediction device 4 is realized by dedicated hardware
  • FIG. 4 shows an example in which the demand prediction device 4 is realized by software, firmware, or the like.
  • this is only an example, and some components of the demand forecasting device 4 may be implemented by dedicated hardware, and the remaining components may be implemented by software, firmware, or the like.
  • FIG. 5 is a configuration diagram showing the learning device 3 and the demand prediction device 4 according to the first embodiment.
  • FIG. 6 is a hardware configuration diagram showing hardware of the learning device 3 according to the first embodiment.
  • description of components other than the data storage unit 22 and the prediction model storage unit 25 in the demand prediction device 4 is omitted for the sake of simplification of the drawing.
  • the learning device 3 shown in FIG. 5 includes a learning data acquisition unit 51, a learning data storage unit 52, a learning data analysis unit 53, a learning unit 54, and an evaluation unit 55.
  • the learning data acquisition unit 51 is implemented by, for example, a learning data acquisition circuit 61 shown in FIG.
  • the demand data D acquired by the learning data acquisition unit 51 is, for example, time-series data indicating demand at a plurality of times included in the period TP1'.
  • the index candidate data In acquired by the learning data acquisition unit 51 is, for example, time-series data indicating indices at a plurality of times included in the period TP2'.
  • the candidate index data In and the demand data D obtained by the learning data obtaining unit 51 are the candidate index data In and the demand data D that are provided to the demand forecasting device 4 when the demand forecasting device 4 performs the demand forecasting process. It is past data than each of the data D.
  • the period TP1' related to the demand data D is a future period from the period TP2' related to the index candidate data In . That is, the demand data D is data that is time-shifted with respect to the index candidate data In . For example, if the time shift is 2 months and the period TP2′ related to the index candidate data In is the period from August 1st to August 31st, the period TP1′ related to the demand data D is 10 months.
  • the period is from the 1st of the month to the 31st of October.
  • an example is shown in which all of the periods related to index candidate data I 1 to I N are TP2′.
  • the learning data storage unit 52 is implemented by, for example, a learning data storage circuit 62 shown in FIG.
  • the learning data analysis unit 53 is realized by, for example, a learning data analysis circuit 63 shown in FIG.
  • the learning unit 54 is realized by, for example, a learning circuit 64 shown in FIG.
  • the prediction model generated by the learning unit 54 includes, for example, an autoregressive model, a moving average model, an autoregressive moving average model, an autoregressive integrated moving average model, or a seasonal autoregressive moving average model. These forecast models are models for which demand forecast is performed by time series analysis.
  • the prediction model generated by the learning unit 54 may be a model for which demand prediction is performed by multivariate analysis such as regression analysis, cluster analysis, or multidimensional scaling.
  • the prediction model generated by the learning unit 54 may be a model in which demand prediction is performed by a method that combines time series analysis and multivariate analysis, or may be a Bayesian estimation, a sigma method, or a state
  • a spatial model may be a model in which demand forecasting is performed.
  • the evaluation unit 55 is implemented by, for example, an evaluation circuit 65 shown in FIG.
  • the evaluation unit 55 evaluates each of the Q prediction models generated by the learning unit 54 .
  • the evaluation unit 55 identifies the top G prediction models PM 1 to PM G with relatively high evaluations among the Q prediction models.
  • the evaluation unit 55 outputs G prediction models PM 1 to PM G to the prediction model storage unit 25 .
  • each of the learning data acquisition unit 51, the learning data storage unit 52, the learning data analysis unit 53, the learning unit 54, and the evaluation unit 55, which are the components of the learning device 3, are dedicated hardware units as shown in FIG. It is assumed that it will be realized by hardware. That is, it is assumed that the learning device 3 is implemented by a learning data acquisition circuit 61 , a learning data storage circuit 62 , a learning data analysis circuit 63 , a learning circuit 64 and an evaluation circuit 65 .
  • the learning data storage circuit 62 is, for example, non-volatile or volatile semiconductor memory such as RAM, ROM, flash memory, EPROM, EEPROM, magnetic disk, flexible disk, optical disk, compact disk, mini disk, or DVD. is applicable.
  • each of the learning data acquisition circuit 61, the learning data analysis circuit 63, the learning circuit 64, and the evaluation circuit 65 is, for example, a single circuit, a composite circuit, a programmed processor, a parallel programmed processor, an ASIC, an FPGA, or , a combination of these.
  • FIG. 7 is a hardware configuration diagram of a computer when the learning device 3 is implemented by software, firmware, or the like.
  • the learning data storage unit 52 is configured on the memory 71 of the computer.
  • a memory 71 stores programs for causing a computer to execute respective processing procedures in the learning data acquisition unit 51 , the learning data analysis unit 53 , the learning unit 54 and the evaluation unit 55 . Then, the processor 72 of the computer executes the program stored in the memory 71 .
  • FIG. 6 shows an example in which each component of the learning device 3 is implemented by dedicated hardware
  • FIG. 7 shows an example in which the learning device 3 is implemented by software, firmware, or the like.
  • this is only an example, and some of the components in the learning device 3 may be implemented by dedicated hardware, and the remaining components may be implemented by software, firmware, or the like.
  • FIG. 8 is a flow chart showing a demand forecasting method, which is a processing procedure of the demand forecasting device 4.
  • the data acquisition unit 21 acquires demand data D that indicates temporal changes in past demand for a product targeted for demand prediction (step ST1 in FIG. 8).
  • the demand data D includes, for example, the actual value of the product shipment amount, the actual product inventory amount, the actual product order amount, the actual product order amount, or the actual product production amount. There is data showing temporal changes.
  • N is an integer of 2 or more.
  • the index candidate data In includes, for example, economic indexes, statistical indexes, and data indicating temporal changes in weather information.
  • the index candidate data In includes , for example, the number of devices using the product in operation during the period in which the demand data D of the product was obtained. Examples of economic indicators include stock prices of companies related to products, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of trading partner countries, exchange rates with trading partner countries, economic trend indices, average stock prices, and fuel prices. .
  • Statistical indicators include, for example, production volume or sales volume of raw materials related to the product, and trade-related information of the product.
  • FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of index candidate data.
  • FIG. 9 shows, as an example of the index candidate data, index candidate data related to the environmental index, index candidate data related to the automobile-related index A, index candidate data related to the automobile-related index B, index candidate data related to the automobile-related index C, Index candidate data related to real estate-related indicators and indicator candidate data related to economy-related indicators A are shown.
  • FIG. 9 shows, as an example of the index candidate data, index candidate data related to official statistics C, index candidate data related to mining and manufacturing index A, index candidate data related to mining and manufacturing index B, and index candidate data related to mining and manufacturing index C. , index candidate data related to the mining and manufacturing index D are shown.
  • solid gray lines are index candidate data related to respective indices
  • black solid lines are averages of a plurality of index candidate data indicated by the solid gray lines.
  • the dashed line is the demand data for the product.
  • the data acquisition unit 21 outputs each of the index candidate data I 1 to I N and the demand data D to the data storage unit 22 .
  • the data storage unit 22 stores the index candidate data I 1 to I N and the demand data D, respectively.
  • An example of calculation processing of the degree of association Cn by the degree of association calculator 23 will be specifically described below.
  • the degree-of-association calculator 23 calculates the covariance Cov between the index candidate data In and the demand data D. FIG. Since the covariance calculation process itself is a known technique, detailed description thereof will be omitted.
  • the relevance calculator 23 calculates the relevance C As n , the correlation coefficient between the index candidate data In and the demand data D is calculated.
  • the degree of association Cn is a correlation coefficient, it is represented by a numerical value from -1 to +1. Therefore, the closer the degree of association Cn to +1, the stronger the positive correlation, and the closer the degree of association Cn to -1, the stronger the negative correlation. Also, the closer the degree of association Cn is to 0, the weaker the correlation.
  • the degree of association calculator 23 calculates the correlation coefficient between the candidate index data In and the demand data D as the degree of association Cn .
  • the degree-of-relevance calculator 23 may calculate the distance between the candidate index data In and the demand data D as the degree of relevance Cn .
  • the distance between the index candidate data In and the demand data D is represented by Euclidean distance or Manhattan distance, for example.
  • the distance between the index candidate data In and the demand data D is obtained by DTW (Dynamic Time Warping), for example.
  • DTW Dynamic Time Warping
  • the index data extraction unit 24 outputs the demand data D to the forecast model selection unit 26.
  • An example of extraction processing of the index data I m ′ by the index data extraction unit 24 will be specifically described below.
  • the index data extracting unit 24 calculates the degree of association C n is extracted as index data I m ' used in the demand forecasting process. If
  • the index data extraction unit 24 does not extract the index candidate data I n related to the degree of association C n as the index data I m ′ used in the demand forecasting process.
  • the threshold Th 1 is a value greater than zero and less than one.
  • the threshold value Th1 may be stored in the internal memory of the index data extraction unit 24, or may be given from the outside of the demand prediction device 4 shown in FIG.
  • the index data extraction unit 24 extracts the index data I m ' used for the demand forecasting process based on the result of comparison between
  • the index data extracting unit 24 extracts the top M pieces of index candidate data I n having a large absolute value of the degree of association C n as the index data I m ′ used in the demand forecasting process. You may do so.
  • the index data extracting unit 24 uses the index candidate data I n related to the degree of association Cn for the demand forecasting process if the degree of association Cn is equal to or less than the threshold value Th2 . Extract as index data I m '. If the degree of association C n is greater than the threshold Th 2 , the index data extraction unit 24 does not extract the index candidate data I n related to the degree of association C n as the index data Im ′ used in the demand forecasting process. Here, the index data extracting unit 24 extracts the index data I m ′ used for the demand forecasting process based on the comparison result between the degree of association C n and the threshold Th 2 . However, this is only an example, and the index data extracting unit 24 extracts the top M index candidate data I n having a small absolute value of the degree of association C n as the index data I m ′ used in the demand forecasting process. You may do so.
  • the prediction model selection unit 26 acquires the demand data D from the index data extraction unit 24 . Based on the demand data D, the prediction model selection unit 26 selects the prediction model PM to which the index data I m ' is given from among the G prediction models PM 1 to PM G stored in the prediction model storage unit 25. Select (step ST4 in FIG. 8). An example of the prediction model PM selection process by the prediction model selection unit 26 will be specifically described below.
  • the prediction model selection unit 26 calculates the fluctuation range F of the demand data D.
  • the fluctuation range F of the demand data D is the absolute value of the difference between the minimum value of the demand data D and the maximum value of the demand data D.
  • the fluctuation range Fg of the prediction result Rg is the absolute value of the difference between the minimum value of the prediction result Rg and the maximum value of the prediction result Rg .
  • the minimum value of the prediction result Rg and the maximum value of the prediction result Rg are obtained from the prediction model PMg .
  • the prediction model selection unit 26 searches for the fluctuation range Fg of the prediction result Rg that is closest to the fluctuation range F of the demand data D, among the fluctuation ranges F1 to Fg of the G prediction results R1 to Rg. do.
  • the prediction model selection unit 26 selects the prediction model PM g related to the searched fluctuation range F g from among the G prediction models PM 1 to PM G as the prediction model PM to which the index data I m ′ is given.
  • Demand forecast processing is performed.
  • the demand forecasting unit 27 performs the demand forecasting process using the index data I m ' indicating the index highly related to the past demand indicated by the demand data D, so that a highly accurate forecast result R can be obtained. can.
  • the demand forecasting unit 27 does not use index candidate data indicating an index having a low degree of relevance to the past demand indicated by the demand data D in the demand forecasting process. Even if the index candidate data In indicating a low index is given to the data acquisition unit 21, it is possible to prevent a decrease in demand prediction accuracy.
  • the demand prediction unit 27 outputs the demand prediction result R to the display data output unit 28 .
  • the demand forecasting unit 27 gives the index data I 1 ' to I M ' to the forecast model PM, and acquires the demand forecast result R from the forecast model PM.
  • the demand forecasting unit 27 may obtain the demand forecast result R by performing regression analysis on the index data I 1 ′ to I M ′.
  • the regression analysis process itself for the index data I 1 ' to I M ' is a well-known technique, so detailed description thereof will be omitted.
  • the display data output unit 28 acquires the demand prediction result R from the demand prediction unit 27 .
  • the display data output unit 28 generates display data H for displaying the demand prediction result R, and outputs the display data H to the display unit 12 .
  • FIG. 10 is a flow chart showing the processing procedure of the learning device 3.
  • the learning data acquisition unit 51 acquires the demand data D from the data storage unit 22 . Also, the learning data acquisition unit 51 acquires N pieces of index candidate data I 1 to I N from the data storage unit 22 (step ST11 in FIG. 10). The learning data acquisition unit 51 sequentially extracts one index candidate data I n from the N pieces of index candidate data I 1 to I N , and sets data including one index candidate data I n and demand data D. are prepared, and N set data are output to the learning data storage unit 52 .
  • the candidate index data In and the demand data D included in each set data are the candidate index data In and the demand data D that are given to the demand forecasting device 4 when the demand forecasting device 4 performs the demand forecasting process. It is past data than each of the data D. Further, the demand data D included in each set data is future data from the index candidate data In included in the set data.
  • the learning data storage unit 52 stores each of the N set data output from the learning data acquisition unit 51.
  • the learning data analysis unit 53 acquires one set data that has not yet been acquired from among the N set data contained in the learning data storage unit 52 (step ST12 in FIG. 10).
  • the learning data analysis unit 53 calculates the degree of association Cn between the index indicated by one index candidate data In and the demand indicated by the demand data D, which are included in the acquired set data (step ST13).
  • the process of calculating the degree of association Cn by the learning data analysis unit 53 for example, the same method as the process of calculating the degree of association Cn by the degree of association calculation unit 23 shown in FIG. 2 can be used. Since the learning data analysis unit 53 has not yet acquired N pieces of set data, if the processing of calculating the N pieces of association degrees C 1 to C N has not been completed (step ST14 in FIG. 10: NO ), and the processing of steps ST12 to ST13 is repeated.
  • the same method as the extraction processing of the index data I m ′′ by the index data extraction unit 24 shown in FIG. 2 can be used.
  • An example of the prediction model generation processing by the learning unit 54 will be specifically described below.
  • FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram showing the input/output relationship of one prediction model.
  • the learning unit 54 causes each prediction model to perform a learning process so that data corresponding to the demand data D is output as the prediction result R from each prediction model.
  • the learning process is a process of adjusting weights, etc., which are coefficients for each explanatory variable so that data corresponding to the demand data D is output as the prediction result R.
  • the learning unit 54 outputs the Q learned prediction models to the evaluation unit 55 .
  • the evaluation unit 55 acquires Q prediction models from the learning unit 54 .
  • the evaluation unit 55 evaluates each of the Q prediction models, and identifies the top G prediction models PM 1 to PM G with relatively high evaluation among the Q prediction models (step ST17).
  • the evaluation unit 55 outputs G prediction models PM 1 to PM G to the prediction model storage unit 25 .
  • the evaluation unit 55 calculates the fluctuation range F of the demand data D.
  • the fluctuation range F of the demand data D is the absolute value of the difference between the minimum value of the demand data D and the maximum value of the demand data D.
  • the evaluation unit 55 also calculates the fluctuation range of the demand prediction results output from each of the Q prediction models.
  • the fluctuation range of the prediction result is the absolute value of the difference between the minimum value of the prediction result and the maximum value of the prediction result. A minimum prediction result and a maximum prediction result are obtained from each prediction model.
  • the evaluation unit 55 searches for the fluctuation range of the top G prediction results that are close to the fluctuation range F of the demand data D among the fluctuation ranges of the Q prediction results.
  • the evaluation unit 55 specifies, from among the Q prediction models, prediction models relating to the fluctuation range of the top G prediction results as G prediction models PM 1 to PM G.
  • demand data indicating temporal changes in past demand for a product targeted for demand forecasting
  • indicator candidate data indicating each of a plurality of indicators that are candidates for indicators related to the past demand.
  • a degree of association for calculating the degree of association between the index indicated by each index candidate data obtained by the data obtaining unit 21 and the demand indicated by the demand data obtained by the data obtaining unit 21.
  • a plurality of index candidate data acquired by the data acquisition unit 21 are used for demand prediction processing for predicting future demand for a product.
  • a demand forecasting unit 27 for performing demand forecasting processing using the index data extracted by the index data extracting unit 24.
  • the demand forecasting device 4 even if a plurality of given index candidate data includes index candidate data indicating an index having a low degree of relevance to the demand of the product, the demand forecasting device 4 does not predict the future demand of the product. It is possible to prevent divergence from the demand of
  • the index data extracting unit 24 extracts, for example, top M index candidate data having a large absolute value of the degree of association C n from among the N pieces of index candidate data I 1 to I N . In is extracted as index data I m ' used for demand forecast processing. However, this is only an example, and the index data extracting unit 24 extracts index data to be used for demand forecast processing from index candidate data indicating each of a plurality of economic indexes based on the degree of association Cn . , the index data used for the demand forecasting process may be extracted from the index candidate data indicating each of a plurality of indexes other than the economic index. Indicators other than economic indicators include, for example, statistical indicators or weather information.
  • index candidate data indicating each of a plurality of economic indicators
  • index candidate data indicating each of a plurality of statistical indicators
  • each of a plurality of weather information are included. It is assumed that the index candidate data shown is included.
  • the index data extraction unit 24 selects the index candidate data with the highest degree of association among the index candidate data indicating each of the plurality of economic indexes based on the degree of association Cn as the index used for the demand forecasting process. Extract as data.
  • the index data extracting unit 24 extracts the index candidate data with the highest degree of association among the index candidate data indicating each of the plurality of statistical indexes based on the degree of association Cn as the index data to be used for the demand forecasting process. Extract as Further, the index data extracting unit 24 extracts the index candidate data with the highest degree of association among the index candidate data indicating each of the plurality of weather information based on the degree of association Cn . Extract as
  • the demand forecasting device 4 shown in FIG. 2 includes a data storage unit 22 and a forecast model storage unit 25.
  • the data storage unit 22 and the prediction model storage unit 25 may be provided in a storage device on the network.
  • the degree-of-association calculation unit 23 and the index data extraction unit 24 have a communication function for accessing the data storage unit 22
  • the prediction model selection unit 26 has a communication function for accessing the prediction model storage unit 25. I have.
  • FIG. 12 is a configuration diagram showing the decision support device 2 and the demand prediction device 4 according to the second embodiment.
  • the same reference numerals as those in FIG. 2 denote the same or corresponding parts, so description thereof will be omitted.
  • FIG. 13 is a hardware configuration diagram showing hardware of the demand prediction device 4 according to the second embodiment.
  • the same reference numerals as those in FIG. 3 denote the same or corresponding parts, so description thereof will be omitted.
  • the decision support device 2 includes an analysis result output unit 11 , a display unit 12 and a setting data reception unit 13 .
  • the setting data reception unit 13 has a man-machine interface such as a keyboard, mouse, or touch panel.
  • the semantic similarity C n ' indicates the degree of similarity between the index and the demand set by the user.
  • the demand prediction device 4 includes a data acquisition unit 81, a data storage unit 82, a degree of association calculation unit 83, an index data extraction unit 24, a prediction model storage unit 25, a prediction model selection unit 26, a demand prediction unit 27, and a display data output unit 28. It has The data acquisition unit 81 is implemented by, for example, a data acquisition circuit 91 shown in FIG. The data acquisition unit 81 acquires the index candidate data I 1 to I N and the demand data D in the same manner as the data acquisition unit 21 shown in FIG. Also, the data acquisition unit 81 acquires the setting data B output from the setting data reception unit 13 . The data acquisition unit 81 outputs each of the index candidate data I 1 to I N , the demand data D, and the setting data B to the data storage unit 82 .
  • the data storage unit 82 is implemented by, for example, a data storage circuit 92 shown in FIG.
  • the data storage unit 82 stores each of the index candidate data I 1 to I N , the demand data D, and the setting data B output from the data acquisition unit 81 .
  • the degree-of-association calculator 83 is realized by, for example, a degree-of-association calculation circuit 93 shown in FIG.
  • the degree-of-association calculation unit 83 acquires the index candidate data I 1 to I N and the demand data D from the data storage unit 82 in the same manner as the degree-of-association calculation unit 23 shown in FIG. Further, the degree-of-association calculation unit 83 acquires the setting data B from the data storage unit 82 .
  • data acquisition unit 81, data storage unit 82, relevance calculation unit 83, index data extraction unit 24, prediction model storage unit 25, prediction model selection unit 26, demand prediction unit, which are components of demand prediction device 4 27 and the display data output unit 28 are assumed to be implemented by dedicated hardware as shown in FIG. That is, the demand prediction device 4 includes a data acquisition circuit 91, a data storage circuit 92, a degree of association calculation circuit 93, an index data extraction circuit 34, a prediction model storage circuit 35, a prediction model selection circuit 36, a demand prediction circuit 37, and a display data output. It is assumed that it is implemented by circuit 38 .
  • each of the data storage circuit 92 and the prediction model storage circuit 35 includes, for example, non-volatile or volatile semiconductor memory such as RAM, ROM, flash memory, EPROM, EEPROM, magnetic disk, flexible disk, optical disk, compact disk. , minidisc, or DVD.
  • Each of the data acquisition circuit 91, the degree-of-relevance calculation circuit 93, the index data extraction circuit 34, the prediction model selection circuit 36, the demand prediction circuit 37, and the display data output circuit 38 is, for example, a single circuit, a composite circuit, or a programmable circuit. processors, parallel programmed processors, ASICs, FPGAs, or combinations thereof.
  • the components of the demand forecasting device 4 are not limited to those realized by dedicated hardware, but the demand forecasting device 4 may be realized by software, firmware, or a combination of software and firmware. good too.
  • the data storage unit 82 and the forecast model storage unit 25 are configured on the memory 41 of the computer shown in FIG.
  • a program for causing a computer to execute each processing procedure in the data acquisition unit 81, the degree of association calculation unit 83, the index data extraction unit 24, the prediction model selection unit 26, the demand prediction unit 27, and the display data output unit 28 is stored in the memory 41.
  • the processor 42 of the computer executes the program stored in the memory 41 .
  • FIG. 13 shows an example in which each component of the demand prediction device 4 is implemented by dedicated hardware
  • FIG. 4 shows an example in which the demand prediction device 4 is implemented by software, firmware, or the like.
  • this is only an example, and some components of the demand forecasting device 4 may be implemented by dedicated hardware, and the remaining components may be implemented by software, firmware, or the like.
  • the operation of the demand prediction device 4 shown in FIG. 12 will be described. 2 except for the data acquisition unit 81, the data storage unit 82, and the relevance calculation unit 83, the data acquisition unit 81, the data storage unit 82, and the relevance calculation unit 83 are mainly The operation of the calculator 83 will be described.
  • the setting data reception unit 13 outputs the setting data B to the data acquisition unit 81 of the demand prediction device 4 .
  • Modes in which the degree of semantic similarity C n ′ between the index indicated by the index candidate data I n and the demand indicated by the demand data D is high include the following (1) and (2).
  • a product related to demand data D is included in a product related to index candidate data In , or a product related to index candidate data In is included in a product related to demand data D.
  • the semantic similarity C n ' between the index indicated by the index candidate data I n and the demand indicated by the demand data D increases. For example, if the product related to the demand data D is a control device installed in an elevator and the product related to the index candidate data In is an elevator, or if the product related to the demand data D is an elevator and the index candidate If the product related to the data In is a control device installed in an elevator, the semantic similarity Cn ' between the index indicated by the index candidate data In and the demand indicated by the demand data D increases.
  • the semantic similarity C n ' increases.
  • the product related to the demand data D is a voltmeter and the product related to the indicator candidate data In is a wattmeter
  • the meaning between the indicator indicated by the indicator candidate data In and the demand indicated by the demand data D is the degree of similarity C n ' increases.
  • the modes shown in (1) and (2) are merely examples, and modes other than (1) and (2) may be used to increase the degree of similarity C n '.
  • the semantic similarity C n ' between the index indicated by the index candidate data I n and the demand indicated by the demand data D is shall be low.
  • FIG. 14 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of setting data B.
  • nine demand data D are shown.
  • nine demand data D are demand data (AA), demand data (AB), demand data (AC), demand data (BA), demand data (BB), demand data (BC), demand data ( CA), demand data (CB), and demand data (CC).
  • indicator candidate data I1 is indicator candidate data related to economic indicator (1)
  • indicator candidate data I2 is indicator candidate data related to economic indicator (2)
  • indicator candidate data I3 is economic indicator data. This is index candidate data related to index (3).
  • Indicator candidate data I4 is indicator candidate data related to industry group statistics (1)
  • indicator candidate data I5 is indicator candidate data related to industry group statistics (2)
  • indicator candidate data I6 is industry group statistics (3 ).
  • Index candidate data I7 is index candidate data related to government-released value (1)
  • index candidate data I8 is index candidate data related to government-released value (2)
  • indicator candidate data I9 is government-released value (3 ).
  • a circle indicates that the semantic similarity between the index indicated by the index candidate data and the demand indicated by the demand data is equal to or greater than the threshold Th3 . Therefore, for example, the setting data B indicating the semantic similarity C 1-AA ' between the index indicated by the index candidate data I 1 related to the economic index (1) and the demand indicated by the demand data (AA) is the threshold Th is set to 3 or more. x indicates that the semantic similarity between the index indicated by the index candidate data and the demand indicated by the demand data is lower than the threshold Th3 .
  • the setting data B indicating the semantic similarity C 7-BA ' between the index indicated by the index candidate data I 7 and the demand indicated by the demand data (BA) related to the government-published value (1) is It is set to less than the threshold Th3 .
  • setting data B indicating the degree of similarity is set for each piece of index candidate data.
  • the setting data B indicating the degree of similarity may be set for each group including one or more index candidate data.
  • the degree of similarity may be a discrete value indicating either ⁇ or x, a discrete value indicating two values or three values, or a continuous value between 0 and 1.
  • the data acquisition unit 81 acquires the index candidate data I 1 to I N and the demand data D in the same manner as the data acquisition unit 21 shown in FIG. Also, the data acquisition unit 81 acquires the setting data B from the setting data reception unit 13 . The data acquisition unit 81 outputs each of the index candidate data I 1 to I N , the demand data D, and the setting data B to the data storage unit 82 . The data storage unit 82 stores index candidate data I 1 to I N , demand data D, and setting data B, respectively.
  • the degree-of-association calculation unit 83 acquires each of the index candidate data I 1 to I N , the demand data D, and the setting data B from the data storage unit 82 .
  • the degree-of-association calculation unit 83 outputs each of the index candidate data In and the demand data D to the index data extraction unit 24 .
  • the semantic similarity C n ′ indicated by the setting data B corresponds to the correlation coefficient between the candidate index data In and the demand data D, or the distance between the candidate index data In and the demand data D. do.
  • the data acquisition unit 81 obtains, in addition to a plurality of index candidate data and demand data, the degree of semantic similarity between the index indicated by each index candidate data and the demand indicated by the demand data. Get the configuration data shown.
  • the degree-of-relevance calculation unit 83 instead of the degree-of-relevance calculation unit 83 calculating the degree of relevance between the index indicated by each index candidate data acquired by the data acquisition unit 81 and the demand indicated by the demand data acquired by the data acquisition unit 81, the demand forecasting device 4 shown in FIG. Therefore, similarly to the demand prediction device 4 shown in FIG. 2, the demand prediction device 4 shown in FIG. Even if is included, it is possible to prevent the demand prediction result from deviating from the future demand for the product.
  • the index data I j ′′ used for generating the prediction model may be extracted from the index candidate data I 1 to I N .
  • FIG. 15 is a configuration diagram showing the decision support device 2 and the demand prediction device 4 according to the third embodiment.
  • the same reference numerals as those in FIGS. 2 and 12 denote the same or corresponding parts, so description thereof will be omitted.
  • FIG. 16 is a hardware configuration diagram showing hardware of the demand prediction device 4 according to the third embodiment.
  • the same reference numerals as those in FIGS. 3 and 13 denote the same or corresponding parts, so description thereof will be omitted.
  • the demand prediction device 4 includes a data acquisition unit 81, a data storage unit 82, a degree of association calculation unit 84, an index data extraction unit 24, a prediction model storage unit 25, a prediction model selection unit 26, a demand prediction unit 27, and a display data output unit 28. It has
  • the degree-of-association calculator 84 is realized by, for example, a degree-of-association calculation circuit 94 shown in FIG.
  • the degree-of-relevance calculation unit 84 acquires each of the index candidate data I 1 to I N , the demand data D, and the setting data B from the data storage unit 82 in the same manner as the degree-of-relevance calculation unit 83 shown in FIG. Similar to the degree-of-relevance calculation unit 23 shown in FIG.
  • the distance between the index candidate data In and the demand data D is calculated.
  • the association degree calculation unit 84 calculates the association between the index indicated by the index candidate data I n and the demand indicated by the demand data D. Calculate the degree C n .
  • data acquisition unit 81, data storage unit 82, relevance calculation unit 84, index data extraction unit 24, prediction model storage unit 25, prediction model selection unit 26, demand prediction unit, which are components of demand prediction device 4 27 and the display data output unit 28 are assumed to be implemented by dedicated hardware as shown in FIG. That is, the demand prediction device 4 includes a data acquisition circuit 91, a data storage circuit 92, a degree of association calculation circuit 94, an index data extraction circuit 34, a prediction model storage circuit 35, a prediction model selection circuit 36, a demand prediction circuit 37, and a display data output. It is assumed that it is implemented by circuit 38 .
  • Each of the data acquisition circuit 91, the relevance calculation circuit 94, the index data extraction circuit 34, the prediction model selection circuit 36, the demand prediction circuit 37, and the display data output circuit 38 may be, for example, a single circuit, a composite circuit, or a programmed processor. , parallel programmed processors, ASICs, FPGAs, or combinations thereof.
  • the components of the demand forecasting device 4 are not limited to those realized by dedicated hardware, but the demand forecasting device 4 may be realized by software, firmware, or a combination of software and firmware. good too.
  • the data storage unit 82 and the forecast model storage unit 25 are configured on the memory 41 of the computer shown in FIG.
  • a program for causing a computer to execute each processing procedure in the data acquisition unit 81, the relevance calculation unit 84, the index data extraction unit 24, the prediction model selection unit 26, the demand prediction unit 27, and the display data output unit 28 is stored in the memory 41.
  • the processor 42 of the computer executes the program stored in the memory 41 .
  • FIG. 16 shows an example in which each component of the demand forecasting device 4 is implemented by dedicated hardware
  • FIG. 4 shows an example in which the demand forecasting device 4 is implemented by software, firmware, or the like.
  • this is only an example, and some components of the demand forecasting device 4 may be implemented by dedicated hardware, and the remaining components may be implemented by software, firmware, or the like.
  • the operation of the demand prediction device 4 shown in FIG. 15 will be described. Since it is the same as the demand prediction device 4 shown in FIG. 12 except for the degree-of-association calculation unit 84, only the operation of the degree-of-association calculation unit 84 will be described here.
  • the degree-of-relevance calculation unit 84 acquires each of the index candidate data I 1 to I N , the demand data D, and the setting data B from the data storage unit 82 in the same manner as the degree-of-relevance calculation unit 83 shown in FIG. Similar to the degree-of-relevance calculation unit 23 shown in FIG . Alternatively, the distance Ln between the index candidate data In and the demand data D is calculated. As shown in the following equation (2 ) , the degree - of-association calculation unit 84 calculates the index and demand A degree of relevance Cn between demand indicated by data D is calculated. Alternatively, as shown in the following equation (3), the degree-of - association calculation unit 84 calculates the index and demand A degree of relevance Cn between demand indicated by data D is calculated.
  • the degree-of-association calculation unit 84 calculates the average of the correlation coefficient cc n or the distance L n and the degree of semantic similarity C n ′ indicated by the setting data B as the degree of association C n .
  • the relevance calculation unit 84 scores the correlation coefficient cc n or the distance L n and the similarity C n ′ as shown below, and based on the score, calculates the relevance The degree C n may be calculated.
  • the relevance calculation unit 84 sorts the N correlation coefficients cc 1 to cc N in descending order of absolute value, A larger score Scc n is set for a correlation coefficient cc n having an earlier order.
  • the relevance calculation unit 84 sorts the N distances L 1 to L N in ascending order of absolute value, A larger score SL n is set for L n .
  • the association degree calculation unit 84 sorts the N similarities C 1 ′ to C N ′ in descending order of absolute value, and sets a higher score SC′ n for the earlier similarity C n ′. As shown in the following formula (4) or formula (5), the degree-of-relevance calculation unit 84 calculates the degree of relevance Cn , the score Scc n of the correlation coefficient cc n or the score SL n of the distance L n , and the degree of similarity The total value of C n ' and the score SC' n is calculated.
  • the data acquisition unit 81 obtains, in addition to a plurality of index candidate data and demand data, the degree of semantic similarity between the index indicated by each index candidate data and the demand indicated by the demand data. and the degree-of-relevance calculation unit 84 calculates the correlation coefficient between each index candidate data and demand data, or the distance between each index candidate data and demand data. 15 so that the degree of association between the index indicated by each index candidate data and the demand indicated by the demand data is calculated from the correlation coefficients or respective distances and the semantic similarity indicated by the setting data.
  • the demand forecasting device 4 shown in is configured. Therefore, the demand prediction device 4 shown in FIG. 15 can improve demand prediction accuracy more than the demand prediction device 4 shown in FIG. 2 or the demand prediction device 4 shown in FIG.
  • the present disclosure is suitable for a demand forecasting device and a demand forecasting method.

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