WO2021235383A1 - Hot water storage plan creation system, hot water storage plan creation method, and program - Google Patents

Abstract

This hot water storage plan creation system comprises a prediction data acquisition unit which acquires prediction data of hot water storage demand for each unit time in a prescribed future period of time, and a plan creation unit which creates a hot water storage plan setting target hot water amount for each unit of time during the prescribed period of time on the basis of the prediction data.

Description

Hot water storage plan creation system, hot water storage plan creation method and program

This disclosure relates to a hot water storage plan creation system, a hot water storage plan creation method, and a program. The present application claims priority to Japanese Patent Application No. 2020-87372 filed on May 19, 2020, the contents of which are incorporated herein by reference.

In the hot water supply system used to supply hot water to the kitchens and bath facilities of restaurants, the water heater heats tap water and stores the heated hot water in the hot water storage tank. Then, the hot water stored in the hot water storage tank is supplied to the kitchen and bath facilities. In such a hot water supply system, the amount of water heater is often set and operated based on the demand forecast every day. However, since the demand forecast contains errors, there is a possibility that there will be a shortage of hot water due to a sudden increase in demand. Patent Document 1 discloses a control method of a water heater that stores a required amount of hot water in a hot water storage tank even when an unexpected hot water is discharged.

Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2019-207058

There is a need for a method that automatically sets the amount of water heater that can avoid running out of hot water while satisfying daily demand forecasts.

The purpose of this disclosure is to provide a hot water storage plan creation system, a hot water storage plan creation method, and a program that can solve the above-mentioned problems.

The hot water storage plan creation system of the present disclosure has a forecast data acquisition unit that acquires forecast data of hot water storage demand for each unit time in a predetermined period, and a target hot water storage amount for each unit time in the predetermined period based on the forecast data. It is equipped with a planning department that creates a defined hot water storage plan.

Further, the hot water storage plan creation method of the present disclosure is a hot water storage plan creation method executed by the hot water storage plan creation system, and is based on a step of acquiring forecast data of hot water storage demand for each unit time in a predetermined period and the forecast data. It has a step of creating a hot water storage plan that defines a target hot water storage amount for each unit time in the predetermined period.

Further, in the program of the present disclosure, a step of acquiring forecast data of hot water storage demand for each unit time in a predetermined period and a target hot water storage amount for each unit time in the predetermined period are determined based on the forecast data. To execute the steps to create a hot water storage plan.

According to the above-mentioned hot water storage plan creation system, hot water storage plan creation method and program, it is possible to automatically set the amount of water heater that satisfies the daily demand forecast amount of hot water supply.

It is a figure which shows an example of the hot water supply system in one Embodiment. It is a functional block diagram which shows an example of the control system in one Embodiment. FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a process of creating a hot water storage plan in one embodiment. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a process of creating a hot water storage plan in one embodiment. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a process of creating a hot water storage plan in one embodiment. FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating a process of creating a hot water storage plan in one embodiment. FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a process of creating a long-term hot water storage plan in one embodiment. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a process of creating a long-term hot water storage plan in one embodiment. FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating how to deal with fluctuations in hot water supply demand in one embodiment. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating how to deal with fluctuations in hot water supply demand in one embodiment. It is a figure explaining the switching of the planning mode in one embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the hot water storage plan making process in one Embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of the hardware composition of the control system in one Embodiment.

<Embodiment>
Hereinafter, the hot water supply system according to the embodiment of the present disclosure will be described with reference to FIGS. 1 to 8.
(System configuration)
FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of a hot water supply system according to an embodiment of the present disclosure.
As shown in the figure, the hot water supply system 1 includes a water heater 2, a hot water storage tank 3, a facility 4, and a control system 100. The water heater 2 and the hot water storage tank 3 are connected by a pipe 6B, and the hot water storage tank 3 and the facility 4 are connected by a pipe 6C. Water is supplied to the water heater 2 through the pipe 6A. The water heater 2 includes, for example, a refrigerant circuit including a compressor, a condenser, an expansion valve, and an evaporator, and heats water to generate hot water by exchanging heat with the condenser. The water heater 2 sends the generated hot water to the hot water storage tank 3 through the pipe 6B. The hot water storage tank 3 stores hot water. The hot water storage tank 3 is provided with a sensor 5 for measuring the amount of hot water stored. The sensor 5 is, for example, a water level sensor. The control system 100 acquires the measured value of the sensor 5 and controls the water heater 2 so that the amount of hot water stored by the sensor 5 becomes the target value. An amount of hot water corresponding to the demand of the facility 4 is supplied from the hot water storage tank 3 to the facility 4 through the pipe 6C.

The control system 100 predicts the demand amount of hot water required for a predetermined target period, and calculates the target value (hot water storage plan) of the hot water storage amount according to the demand amount prediction. Then, the control system 100 operates the water heater 2 based on the hot water storage plan. Next, the control system 100 will be described.

(Control system function)
FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram showing an example of a control system according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. The control system 100 controls the demand amount forecasting device 10 for predicting the demand amount of hot water, the hot water storage plan creating device 20 for creating a hot water storage plan for storing hot water in the hot water storage tank 3 based on the demand amount prediction, and the water supply machine 2. The device 30 is provided. The demand amount forecasting device 10, the hot water storage plan creating device 20, and the control device 30 are communicably connected to each other.

The demand amount prediction device 10 includes a data acquisition unit 11, a prediction model creation unit 12, a demand amount prediction unit 13, and a storage unit 14.
The data acquisition unit 11 acquires various data necessary for forecasting the demand amount.
The prediction model creation unit 12 learns the relationship between various parameters (explanatory variables) and the amount of hot water used (objective variable), and creates a prediction model for predicting the demand for hot water. The explanatory variables of the prediction model are, for example, the demand for hot water such as the outside temperature, the day of the week, the weather, the month, the season, the time, and the time zone of the day (morning, noon, evening) in the environment where the hot water supply system 1 operates. It is a parameter that affects. The amount of hot water used is, for example, the amount of hot water supplied from the hot water storage tank 3 to the facility 4. In the present disclosure, it is assumed that the amount of hot water supplied to the facility 4 is known. The data acquisition unit 11 acquires the explanatory variables exemplified above and the use of hot water (objective variable) at that time, associates them, and stores them in the storage unit 14 as learning data. The prediction model creation unit 12 reads the accumulated learning data and creates a prediction model showing the relationship between the explanatory variables such as the outside air temperature and the day of the week and the amount of hot water used as the objective variable by processing such as multiple regression analysis. .. In this way, the prediction model creation unit 12 creates a prediction model based on actual operation data (explanatory variables and objective variables described above) regardless of the equipment configuration of the hot water supply system 1. As a result, it can be introduced into any system and a highly accurate demand forecast model can be created. Since the demand of the facility 4 may change due to the convenience of the facility, the prediction model creation unit 12 may periodically recreate the prediction model.

The demand amount prediction unit 13 predicts the demand amount of hot water for each unit time in the prediction target period based on the prediction model created by the prediction model creation unit 12. The demand amount prediction unit 13 outputs the demand amount prediction value for each unit time as prediction data. The forecast data includes data expressing the demand amount of hot water for each unit time as the amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 3. For example, assuming that the unit time is one hour, the prediction data includes information such as "7:00, 1%", "8:00, 2%", and so on. Here, "7:00, 1%" indicates that the demand for hot water corresponding to 1% of the total amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 3 is expected from 7:00 to 8:00.
The storage unit 14 stores the data acquired by the data acquisition unit 11 and the prediction model created by the prediction model creation unit 12.

The hot water storage plan creating device 20 includes a prediction data acquisition unit 21, an actual data acquisition unit 22, a setting reception unit 23, a plan creation unit 24, and a storage unit 25.
The forecast data acquisition unit 21 acquires the forecast data output by the demand amount forecasting device 10, and writes the acquired forecast data in the storage unit 25.
The actual data acquisition unit 22 acquires actual data indicating the actual usage of hot water in the hot water storage tank 3, and writes the acquired actual data in the storage unit 25. The actual data is, for example, the amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 3 for each unit time. The actual data includes information such as "7:00, 80%", "8:00, 80%", and so on. Here, "7:00, 80%" and "8:00, 80%" indicate that the amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 3 was 80% at 7:00 and 8:00. There is. Further, it is shown that the amount of hot water supplied from the hot water storage tank 3 to the facility 4 between 7:00 and 8:00 was equal to the amount of hot water supplied by the water heater 2 to the hot water storage tank 3. The actual data is used to determine whether to create a hot water storage plan that prioritizes efficiency or a hot water storage plan that prioritizes prevention of running out of hot water when creating a hot water storage plan.
The setting reception unit 23 receives the settings necessary for the process of creating the hot water storage plan.

The plan creation unit 24 creates a hot water storage plan based on the forecast data. The hot water storage plan is, for example, the amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 3 for each unit time. The hot water storage plan includes information such as "6:00, 80%", "7:00, 80%", "8:00, 90%", and the like. Here, "7:00, 80%" means that the amount of hot water stored by the sensor 5 at 7:00 is compared with 80%, and if the amount of hot water stored is less than 80%, it becomes 80%. Indicates to drive. That is, when the target hot water storage amount of "7:00, 80%" is given to the control device 30, and the hot water storage amount measured by the sensor 5 does not reach 80% at 7:00, the control device 30 Starts the operation of the water heater 2 so that the amount of hot water stored becomes 80%. On the other hand, in this disclosure, a hot water storage plan is created so that 80% can be achieved at 7:00. For example, if it is necessary to boil water from 1:00 in order to achieve 80% of the hot water storage amount at 7:00, the water heater 2 creates a hot water storage plan so that the water heater can start boiling from 1:00.
The storage unit 25 stores various information such as prediction data, actual data, and various settings.

The control device 30 acquires the hot water storage amount of the hot water storage tank 3 measured by the sensor 5, and is based on the hot water storage amount measured by the sensor 5 and the target hot water storage amount set in the hot water storage plan created by the hot water storage plan creation device 20. Controls the operation of the water heater 2. For example, if the amount of hot water stored at 7:00 in the hot water storage plan is 80% and the amount of hot water stored by the sensor 5 at 7:00 is 70%, the amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 3 of the control device 30 is 80%. The water heater 2 is operated as described above.

(Processing for creating a hot water storage plan)
Next, the process of creating a hot water storage plan by the plan creation unit 24 will be described. 3A to 3D are FIGS. 1 to 4 illustrating a process of creating a hot water storage plan in each embodiment.
First, the planning unit 24 prepares the following variables.
-Demand (i): Demand forecast amount in the frame i included in the forecast data. Units%.
-Necessary (i): The amount of hot water that should be secured at the start time of each frame. Units%.
・ C1: The amount of hot water that can be boiled in one frame. The unit is% / frame.
・ C2: The amount of hot water to be stored at the end of the planned period. Units%.
-Favord (i): A flag indicating whether or not the demand forecast amount of the frame i is C1 or less. If the demand forecast amount is C1 or less (even if boiling water is started from the start time of the frame, the demand forecast amount can be covered by the end time of the frame), it is "1", and if it is larger than C1, it is "0".
-Target (i): Target hot water storage amount of coma i. Units%. The hot water storage plan is composed of Target (i) for each unit time in the target period.
-Lowlim: The lower limit of the amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 3. Always try not to fall below this value. Units%.
For example, the values of C1, C2, and Lowlim are set by the user, the setting receiving unit 23 accepts the settings for these variables, and each value is registered in the storage unit 25.

In addition, the following assumptions are made in the process of creating a hot water storage plan.
(A) It is assumed that the total daily demand is less than or equal to the total amount of boiling water per day. That is, it is assumed that the installed capacity of the hot water supply system 1 is sufficient for the demand.
(B) As an example, one frame is one hour. In addition, the planning period for the amount of hot water stored is 24 hours.
(C) The amount of hot water C1 to be boiled in one hour is calculated from past operation data.
(D) The lower limit value Lowlim of the hot water storage tank 3 is always secured.

The plan creation unit 24 creates a hot water storage plan by the following processes [1] to [7].
[1] First, the plan creation unit 24 acquires the forecast data output by the demand amount forecasting device 10. The circles in FIGS. 3A to 3D indicate Demand (i) in each frame i (each time).
[2] Next, the plan creation unit 24 sets Lowlim as the initial value of the Target (i) of each frame i. The asterisk in FIG. 3B indicates the initial value of Target (i) in each frame i.

[3] Next, the plan creation unit 24 calculates the amount of hot water to be secured at the start time of each frame i. First, the sensitivity (24) of the final frame is calculated by the following equation (1).
Demand (24) = Demand (24) + C2 ... (1)
The sensitivity (i) of the other frames (i = 0 to 23) is calculated by the following equation (2).
Demand (i) = Demand (i) + Demand (i + 1) ... (2)
That is, all the future demand forecast amounts are added to the demand forecast amount of the frame i. The diamond-shaped mark in FIG. 3B indicates the Necessary (i) in each frame i.

[4] Next, the plan creation unit 24 sets the Friend (i) of each frame i based on the prediction data. For example, the Friend (i) of 9:00 to 16:00 (frame i = 9 to 16) is set to "0", and the other Friend (i) is set to "1".

[5] Next, the plan creation unit 24 sets Target (i) = Security (i) for the frame whose Afford (i) is "0". The asterisks from 9:00 to 16:00 in FIG. 3C indicate Target (i) after this processing.

[6] Next, the planning unit 24 determines the Demand (i _α ) of the frame i _{α for the first frame (referred to as the frame i α} ) in which the Friend (i) changes from “1” to “0”. The time (number of frames) K required to boil the amount of hot water indicated by is calculated, and the target amount of hot water stored up _{to the frame i calculated from the frame i α is set as the Necessary (i α} ). Specifically, the plan creation unit 24 calculates K by the following equation (3).
K = ceil {(Necessary (i _α ) -Lowlim) / C1} + 1 ... (3)
Here, ceil means rounding up an integer. In addition, 1 is added in order to allow time for boiling water. Then, the plan creation unit 24 calculates Target (i-K) by the following formula (4).
Target (i _α- K) = Nessesary (i _α ) (K = 1, 2, ..., K) ... (4)
The asterisks from 1:00 to 8:00 in FIG. 3C indicate Target (i) after this processing.

[7] Finally, the planning unit 24 sets the value of the Target (i) to 100% for the Target (i) exceeding 100%, and rounds up the value of the Target (i) including the decimal to an integer. .. The Target (i) (i = 0 to 24) thus obtained is a hot water storage plan. Figure 3D shows the hot water storage plan. The black star in FIG. 3D is the hot water storage plan.

By the processes of [1] to [7], the plan creation unit 24 automatically calculates the hot water storage plan including the target hot water storage amount for each unit time. The plan creation unit 24 outputs the created hot water storage plan to the control device 30. The above process is an example. For example, in [2], a value (larger value) safer than Lowlim may be set as the initial value of Target (i). Further, as described below, a value that can avoid running out of hot water can be set in C1.

(Setting the amount of hot water that can be boiled in one frame)
For example, in a time zone when hot water does not flow out from the hot water storage tank 3, the target hot water storage amount of 95% is given when the hot water storage amount measured by the sensor 5 is 45%, and until the hot water storage amount measured by the sensor 5 reaches 95%. It took 10 hours. That is, it is assumed that 5% of hot water can be boiled per hour. The variable C1 is calculated by dividing this 5 (% / hour) by a predetermined safety factor (referred to as "2"). In this example, C1 = 2.5 (% / hour). By setting C1 on the safe side (less) based on the measured value in this way, it is possible to create a hot water storage plan that does not cause running out of hot water. The setting of C1 may be performed by the user, or the planning unit 24 may acquire the measured value of the sensor 5 and set it by the above calculation.

In addition, the ability of the water heater 2 to boil water includes the system configuration and operating conditions such as piping diameter, piping length, piping height, type (open type, closed type) and number of hot water storage tanks 3, outside air temperature, and set temperature. It is preferable to set it for each hot water supply system 1 because it differs depending on the hot water supply system 1. Therefore, for example, the plan creation unit 24 creates a learning model for calculating the amount of water heater per unit time by machine learning or the like, calculates the amount of water heater by this learning model, and sets it to C1 based on the calculated amount of water heater. You may. For example, the learning model outputs the amount of hot water that can be boiled per unit time by inputting the outside air temperature, the temperature of the supplied water, and the set temperature of the hot water. The planning unit 24 is a learning model based on the amount of hot water stored by the sensor 5 during the time when the water heater 2 is operating and there is no outflow of hot water from the hot water storage tank 3, and the outside air temperature and water temperature during the same time. To create. Further, the plan creation unit 24 inputs the estimated values of the outside air temperature and the water temperature for each hour in the target period of the hot water storage plan into the learning model, calculates the C1 for each hour, and stores the hot water using the C1 for each hour. You may make a plan.

(Countermeasures against the risk of running out of hot water)
In the above explanation, it was decided to create a hot water storage plan up to 24 hours later, but for example, if a large demand is planned the day after next, there is a possibility that the hot water will run out. Next, a method of creating a hot water storage plan for reducing such a risk of running out of hot water will be described with reference to FIGS. 4A and 4B.
4A and 4B are FIGS. 1 and 2, respectively, illustrating the process of creating a long-term hot water storage plan according to the embodiment of the present disclosure.
The planning unit 24 creates a longer-term hot water storage plan in order to reduce the risk of running out of hot water. For example, the plan creation unit 24 creates a hot water storage plan based on the demand forecast for N days (N> 1) in the future. Assuming that N = 2, the plan creation unit 24 creates a hot water storage plan up to 48 hours ahead. The demand amount forecasting device 10 creates forecast data including a demand forecasting amount for each time up to 48 hours ahead. In the hot water storage plan creating device 20, the forecast data acquisition unit 21 acquires forecast data for 48 hours, and the plan creation unit 24 creates a hot water storage plan for 48 hours. FIG. 4A shows a graph in which the values of Target (i) (i = 0 to 48) created through the above processes [1] to [6] are plotted. FIG. 4B shows a hot water storage plan created by the plan creation unit 24 by further performing the process of [7] above.

As described above, the plan creation unit 24 creates a hot water storage plan by accumulating the amount of hot water required in the future while considering the time required to boil that amount of hot water. Therefore, it is possible to reduce the risk of running out of hot water by creating a hot water storage plan based on a long-term demand forecast. Here, creating a hot water storage plan based on a long-term (for example, N> 1) demand forecast is created based on a hot water shortage prevention mode and a short-term (for example, N ≦ 1) demand forecast. This is called the efficiency priority mode, and these are collectively called the planning mode. The planning unit 24 may switch to either the hot water shortage prevention mode or the efficiency priority mode to create a hot water storage plan based on the user's settings or the recent tendency of the amount of hot water used. can. For example, if efficiency is prioritized over the risk of running out of hot water (priority is given to reducing the energy consumed for boiling water as much as possible), the user sets the efficiency priority mode. The period for creating the hot water storage plan in the efficiency priority mode is not limited to 24 hours, but may be 12 hours or 6 hours. By setting the efficiency priority mode and creating a hot water storage plan, the operating cost of the hot water supply system 1 can be suppressed. Further, the period for creating the hot water storage plan in the hot water shortage prevention mode is not limited to 48 hours, but may be 72 hours or one week. By setting the hot water shortage prevention mode and creating a hot water storage plan, it is possible to secure the required amount of hot water during the target period. In the case of the hot water shortage prevention mode, for example, a hot water storage plan up to N days ahead may be created based on the demand forecast up to N days ahead every day.

(Countermeasures against sudden risk of running out of hot water)
Even if a hot water storage plan is created in the hot water shortage prevention mode, there may be a shortage of hot water due to a sudden increase in demand. In such a case, the forecast data is manually corrected, and the plan creation unit 24 is made to execute the above [1] to [7] based on the corrected forecast data to create a hot water storage plan for avoiding running out of hot water. Can be created. This situation is shown in FIGS. 5A and 5B.
5A and 5B are FIGS. 1 and 2, respectively, illustrating how to deal with fluctuations in hot water supply demand in one embodiment.
For example, when a sudden increase in demand is expected from 11:00 to 13:00, the value of Demand (i) from 11:00 to 13:00 in the forecast data of FIG. 3A is corrected as shown in FIG. 5A. (Inside H1 in FIG. 5A). FIG. 5B shows a hot water storage plan created by the plan creation unit 24 based on the corrected forecast data. It can be seen that the hot water storage target value before 11:00 is increased as compared with FIG. 3D. This makes it possible to create a hot water storage plan that responds to increasing demand.

Also, even if a sudden decrease in demand is expected, it is possible to create a hot water storage plan that responds to the decrease in demand by manually correcting the forecast data. This makes it possible to avoid the creation of useless hot water.

(Automatic setting of planning mode)
FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating switching of a planning mode in one embodiment.
The actual data of one day shown in FIG. 6 is shown. The actual data P1 is the actual data when the decrease in the hot water storage amount is small with respect to the hot water storage plan, and the actual data P2 is the actual data when the decrease in the hot water storage amount is large with respect to the hot water storage plan.
For example, the planning unit 24 refers to the latest actual data for one week, and if the transition of the amount of hot water stored for one week tends to be as shown by the actual data P1, the error of the predicted data is within the permissible range. And select the efficiency priority mode to create a hot water storage plan. Further, if the transition of the amount of hot water stored in one week tends to be as shown by the actual data P2, the plan creation unit 24 determines that the error of the predicted data is large, selects the hot water shortage prevention mode, and plans the hot water storage. To create. More specifically, the planning unit 24 acquires actual data for a predetermined period in the past (for example, the same day one week before, one week before), and for example, the difference between the remaining amount of hot water stored and Lowlim is predetermined. If the number of frames within the range is more than a predetermined number, the hot water shortage prevention mode is selected, and if the number of such frames is less than a predetermined number, the efficiency priority mode is selected. By selecting the planning mode for the next day or later according to the remaining amount of hot water stored on a daily basis in this way, it is possible to automatically create a lean hot water storage plan in line with the demand forecast while avoiding running out of hot water.

Further, the planning unit 24 does not select either the efficiency priority mode or the hot water shortage prevention mode, but may set the length of the target period in multiple stages according to the difference between the remaining amount of hot water stored and Lowlim. good. For example, the planning unit 24 calculates a representative value (for example, average value, mode value, minimum value, maximum value, median value, etc.) of the difference between the remaining amount of hot water stored and Lowlim from the actual data of the past predetermined period. .. Then, the planning unit 24 sets the length of the target period to 48 hours if the representative value is 10% or less, and sets the length of the target period to 36 hours if the representative value is 10% to 20%, and 20% to 20%. If it is 30%, the length of the target period is set to 30 hours, if it is 30% or more, it is set to 24 hours, and the target period is set according to the difference between the remaining amount of hot water stored and Lowlim. In this way, the difference between the remaining amount of hot water stored and Lowlim is considered as the magnitude of the error of the prediction model, and the target period is set according to the magnitude of the error of the prediction model. This makes it possible to create a hot water storage plan that compensates for errors in the prediction model.

Further, the plan creation unit 24 may revise the hot water storage plan instead of the length of the target period. For example, if the plan creation unit 24 has a predetermined number or more of frames in which the difference between the remaining amount of hot water and Lowlim is within a predetermined range based on the actual data of the past predetermined period, each frame of the hot water storage plan after creation is created. (Or, each frame in the time zone when hot water consumption tends to be high) Target hot water storage amount: Create a hot water storage plan by adding a predetermined value to Target (i) (for example, + 5%), and set the remaining hot water storage amount and Lowlim. If the number of frames whose difference is within a predetermined range is less than a predetermined number, the hot water storage plan created by the processes of [1] to [7] may be output to the control device 30.

Further, in order to create a more efficient hot water storage plan, the plan creation unit 24, for example, with respect to the hot water storage plan created in the efficiency priority mode, the remaining amount of hot water and the Lowlim based on the actual data of the past predetermined period. For frames whose difference is within a predetermined range, add an arbitrary correction amount to Target (i) of that frame (for example, + 5%), and for frames where the difference between the remaining amount of hot water and Lowlim is larger than the predetermined value. Subtracts an arbitrary correction amount (for example, -3%) from the Target (i) of the frame, learns the correction amount added or subtracted for each frame, and creates a hot water storage plan that is just right for the demand. It may be calculated. Further, in this learning, the difference between the remaining amount of hot water and Lowlim and the magnitude of the appropriate correction amount may be learned together with the parameters such as the outside air temperature, the time, and the weather. In this way, by adjusting the target amount of hot water stored from the next day onward according to the remaining amount of hot water stored on a daily basis, it is possible to create a hot water storage plan optimized for the minimum amount of hot water stored so that the hot water does not run out. Further, by correcting the target hot water storage amount based on the daily results, for example, it is possible to create a hot water storage plan close to the actual demand even while the forecast model cannot cope with the change in the demand in the facility 4. ..

(Operation of hot water storage plan creation process)
Next, the flow of the hot water storage plan creation process will be described.
FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing an example of the hot water storage plan creation process in one embodiment.
First, the user makes various settings in the hot water storage plan creating device 20. For example, the user sets the variables C1, C2, and Lowlim used to create the hot water storage plan, automatically sets or fixes the planning mode, or sets the target period according to the difference between the remaining hot water storage amount and Lowlim. Set whether to set. When fixing the planning mode, the user sets either the efficiency priority mode or the hot water shortage prevention mode. In addition, the user sets the target period in each of the efficiency priority mode and the hot water shortage prevention mode. When setting the target period according to the difference between the remaining amount of hot water stored and Lowlim, the user sets the target period according to the difference. The setting receiving unit 23 accepts these settings (step S1) and writes them in the storage unit 25.

Next, the plan creation unit 24 determines whether or not the target period is variable (step S2). The planning unit 24 determines that the target period is variable when automatic is set in the planning mode, or when it is selected to set the target period according to the difference between the remaining amount of hot water stored and Lowlim, and the planning mode is determined. When the efficiency priority mode or the hot water shortage prevention mode is set in, it is determined that the target period is not variable. When it is determined that the target period is variable (step S2; Yes), the actual data acquisition unit 22 acquires the actual data (step S3). The planning unit 24 determines the risk of running out of hot water based on the actual data, selects the hot water running out prevention mode when the hot water running out risk is above a predetermined standard, and when the hot water running out risk is less than the standard. Selects efficiency priority mode. The planning unit 24 sets the target period corresponding to the selected planning mode (step S4). Alternatively, the plan creation unit 24 sets a target period according to the difference between the remaining amount of hot water stored and Lowlim based on the actual data (step S4).

Next, the hot water storage plan creating device 20 designates a target period to the demand amount forecasting device 10 and instructs the demand amount forecasting device 10 to create forecast data. In the demand amount prediction device 10, the demand amount prediction unit 13 inputs the value (prediction value) of the explanatory variable in the designated target period into the prediction model, and includes the demand prediction amount of hot water for each unit time in the target period. Prediction data is created (step S5). The demand amount forecasting unit 13 outputs the forecast data to the hot water storage plan creating device 20. In the hot water storage plan creating device 20, the prediction data acquisition unit 21 acquires the prediction data (step S6).

Next, the user determines whether or not the demand in the target period is expected to change, and if the change is expected (step S7; Yes), the frame to be changed and the correction amount are input to the hot water storage plan creating device 20. The setting reception unit 23 acquires a correction amount for changing the demand, and corrects the forecast data as described with reference to FIG. 5A (step S8).
When the correction of the forecast data is completed or when there is no change in the demand (step S7; No), the planning unit 24 performs the above processes [1] to [7] and is set by the above process. Create a hot water storage plan for the target period (step S9).

As described above, according to the present embodiment, the target hot water storage amount (command value to the water heater 2) for each unit time in the target period can be automatically calculated based on the demand forecast of hot water. Further, in order to calculate the target hot water storage amount based on the predicted data calculated based on the operation data of the hot water supply system 1, the equipment configuration of the hot water supply system 1 (type and number of hot water storage tanks 3, capacity and number of water heater 2 and piping). It can be applied to any system regardless of the diameter (diameter and pipe length) and operating conditions.

In addition, although it is a lean plan based on demand forecast data, it is possible to create a hot water storage plan that takes into account the time required to boil water, so if the actual demand is less than the forecast data, the hot water will run out. It can be prevented in advance.
In addition, by arbitrarily setting the target period for creating a plan, a hot water storage plan (hot water shortage prevention mode) that avoids running out of hot water more reliably, or a hot water storage plan that prioritizes efficiency with less waste (efficiency priority mode) is created. can do. Alternatively, a hot water storage plan that achieves both efficiency and prevention of running out of hot water may be created by designating an intermediate length between the hot water running out prevention mode and the efficiency priority mode in the target period. Further, since the efficiency priority mode and the hot water shortage prevention mode can be automatically selected based on the actual data, the user does not need to think about which planning mode to adopt. Furthermore, by flexibly changing the target period according to the remaining amount of hot water stored in the actual data, it is possible to create a hot water storage plan that compensates for the error of the prediction model.
In addition, if the actual demand is expected to deviate from the forecast data due to a sudden event that is difficult to predict, it is possible to create a hot water storage plan that responds to fluctuations in demand by manually correcting the forecast data. ..

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of the control system in one embodiment.
The computer 900 includes a CPU 901, a main storage device 902, an auxiliary storage device 903, an input / output interface 904, and a communication interface 905.
The demand amount forecasting device 10, the hot water storage plan creating device 20, and the control device 30 described above are mounted on the computer 900. Each of the above-mentioned functions is stored in the auxiliary storage device 903 in the form of a program. The CPU 901 reads the program from the auxiliary storage device 903, expands it to the main storage device 902, and executes the above processing according to the program. Further, the CPU 901 secures a storage area in the main storage device 902 according to the program. Further, the CPU 901 secures a storage area for storing the data being processed in the auxiliary storage device 903 according to the program.

A program for realizing all or part of the functions of the demand amount forecasting device 10, the hot water storage plan creating device 20, and the control device 30 is recorded on a computer-readable recording medium, and the program recorded on the recording medium. May be processed by each functional unit by loading and executing the above in the computer system. The term "computer system" as used herein includes hardware such as an OS and peripheral devices. Further, the "computer system" includes the homepage providing environment (or display environment) if the WWW system is used. Further, the "computer-readable recording medium" refers to a portable medium such as a CD, DVD, or USB, or a storage device such as a hard disk built in a computer system. When this program is distributed to the computer 900 by a communication line, the distributed computer 900 may expand the program to the main storage device 902 and execute the above processing. Further, the above-mentioned program may be for realizing a part of the above-mentioned functions, and may be further realized for realizing the above-mentioned functions in combination with a program already recorded in the computer system. ..

As described above, some embodiments according to the present disclosure have been described, but all of these embodiments are presented as examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. These embodiments can be implemented in various other embodiments, and various omissions, replacements, and changes can be made without departing from the gist of the invention. These embodiments and variations thereof are included in the scope of the invention described in the claims and the equivalent scope thereof, as are included in the scope and gist of the invention.

<Additional Notes>
The hot water storage plan creation system, the hot water storage plan creation method, and the program described in each embodiment are grasped as follows, for example.

(1) The hot water storage plan creation system (control system 100, hot water storage plan creation device 20) according to the first aspect has a forecast data acquisition unit 21 that acquires forecast data of hot water storage demand for each unit time in a predetermined period, and the forecast. A plan creation unit 24 that creates a hot water storage plan that defines a target hot water storage amount for each unit time in the predetermined period based on the data is provided.
As a result, it is possible to automatically set a lean water heater amount that satisfies the daily demand forecast amount of hot water supply.

(2) The hot water storage plan creation system (control system 100, hot water storage plan creation device 20) according to the second aspect is the hot water storage plan creation system of (1), and the setting reception unit 23 that accepts the setting of the predetermined period. Further prepare.
This makes it possible to create a hot water storage plan for any target period. For example, if efficiency is prioritized, a short period is set for a predetermined period, and if you want to create a more conservative hot water storage plan that anticipates future fluctuations in demand, you can set a long period for a predetermined period. The desired hot water storage plan can be created.

(3) The hot water storage plan creation system (control system 100, hot water storage plan creation device 20) according to the third aspect is the hot water storage plan creation system of (2), and the setting reception unit 23 changes the prediction data. Accept.
This makes it possible to create a hot water storage plan that responds to sudden changes in demand.

(4) The hot water storage plan creation system (control system 100, hot water storage plan creation device 20) according to the fourth aspect is the hot water storage plan creation system of (1) to (3), and is the remaining amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 3. Further, the actual data acquisition unit 22 for acquiring the actual data is further provided, and the plan creation unit 24 sets the predetermined period based on the actual data.

(5) The hot water storage plan creation system (control system 100, hot water storage plan creation device 20) according to the fifth aspect is the hot water storage plan creation system of (4), and the plan creation unit 24 is shown by the actual data. When the remaining amount of hot water is less than the predetermined threshold value, the first period (for example, 48 hours) set for the hot water shortage prevention mode is set to the predetermined period, and when the remaining amount of hot water is equal to or more than the threshold value, efficiency is prioritized. A second period (for example, 24 hours) shorter than the first period set for the mode is set as the predetermined period.

(6) The hot water storage plan creation system (control system 100, hot water storage plan creation device 20) according to the sixth aspect is the hot water storage plan creation system of (4), and the plan creation unit 24 is shown by the actual data. Based on the difference between the remaining amount of hot water stored and the predetermined threshold value, the larger the difference is, the shorter the period is set in the predetermined period, and the smaller the difference is, the longer the period is set in the predetermined period.
(For example, the planning unit 24 takes 48 hours in the target period if the representative value of the difference is 10% or less, 36 hours if it is 10% to 20%, and 30 hours if it is 20% to 30%. If it is% or more, set 24 hours)
According to the fourth to sixth aspects, it is possible to automatically set a lean hot water storage plan according to the demand forecast while avoiding running out of hot water based on the actual result of the remaining amount of hot water stored.

(7) The hot water storage plan creation system (control system 100, hot water storage plan creation device 20) according to the seventh aspect is the hot water storage plan creation system of (1) to (6), and the plan creation unit 24 is the first. When the hot water storage demand (Demand (i)) in the unit time of 1 exceeds the amount of hot water C1 that can be created per unit time, the hot water storage demand in the first unit time and the first unit time in the predetermined period The total of the hot water storage demand for each unit time in the future is set as the target hot water storage amount (Target (i)) in the first unit time (process of the above [5]).

(8) The hot water storage plan creation system (control system 100, hot water storage plan creation device 20) according to the eighth aspect is the hot water storage plan creation system of (7), and the plan creation unit 24 is the first unit. When the hot water storage demand for the time exceeds the amount of hot water C1 that can be created per unit time, the number of the unit hours corresponding to the time required to create the hot water for the hot water storage demand is calculated, and the number of the unit hours is calculated before the first unit time. The target hot water storage amount for the first unit time is set for the target hot water storage amount for each of the unit times for the number of minutes (process of [6] above).
According to the seventh to eighth aspects, even if the demand amount exceeds the hot water preparation capacity per unit time, it is possible to create a hot water storage plan that can produce the hot water amount that meets the demand by the required time.

(9) The hot water storage plan creation system (control system 100, hot water storage plan creation device 20) according to the ninth aspect is the hot water storage plan creation system of (8), and the plan creation unit 24 per unit time. The amount of hot water C1 that can be created is calculated by machine learning based on the amount of hot water actually created per unit time.
This makes it possible to improve the accuracy of the hot water storage plan.

(10) The hot water storage plan creation system (control system 100, hot water storage plan creation device 20 and demand amount prediction device 10) according to the tenth aspect is the hot water storage plan creation system (control system 100, hot water storage) of (1) to (9). The planning model 20 and the demand forecasting device 10), the forecasting model creating unit 12 that creates a forecasting model that outputs the demand for hot water under the conditions when a condition that affects the demand for hot water is input, and the above. Further, the demand amount prediction unit 13 for creating the prediction data based on the condition and the prediction model in a predetermined period is further provided.

(11) The hot water storage plan creation method according to the eleventh aspect is a hot water storage plan creation method executed by the hot water storage plan creation system (control system 100, hot water storage plan creation device 20), and hot water is stored every unit time in a predetermined period. It has a step of acquiring demand forecast data and a step of creating a hot water storage plan that defines a target hot water storage amount for each unit time in the predetermined period based on the forecast data.

(12) The program according to the twelfth aspect has a step of acquiring forecast data of hot water storage demand for each unit time in a predetermined period on a computer 900, and based on the forecast data, for each unit time in the predetermined period. To execute the step of creating a hot water storage plan that defines the target hot water storage amount.

1 ... Hot water supply system 2 ... Hot water supply machine 3 ... Hot water storage tank 4 ... Facilities 5 ... Sensors 6A, 6B, 6C ... Piping 100 ... Control system 10 ... Demand forecast Device 11 ... Data acquisition unit 12 ... Prediction model creation unit 13 ... Demand amount prediction unit 14 ... Storage unit 20 ... Hot water storage plan creation device 21 ... Prediction data acquisition unit 22 ... Achievement data acquisition unit 23 ... Setting reception unit 24 ... Plan creation unit 25 ... Storage unit 30 ... Control device 900 ... Computer 901 ... CPU
902 ... Main storage device 903 ... Auxiliary storage device 904 ... Input / output interface 905 ... Communication interface

Claims (12)

1. A forecast data acquisition unit that acquires forecast data for hot water storage demand for each unit time in a predetermined period,
   Based on the forecast data, the plan creation unit that creates a hot water storage plan that defines the target hot water storage amount for each unit time in the predetermined period, and
   Hot water storage planning system equipped with.
2. A setting reception unit that accepts the setting of the predetermined period is further provided.
   The hot water storage plan creation system according to claim 1.
3. The setting reception unit accepts changes in the prediction data.
   The hot water storage plan creation system according to claim 2.
4. It also has a performance data acquisition unit that acquires the performance data of the remaining amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank.
   The planning unit sets the predetermined period based on the actual data.
   The hot water storage plan creation system according to any one of claims 1 to 3.
5. When the remaining amount of hot water stored indicated by the actual data is less than the predetermined threshold value, the planning unit sets the first period set for the hot water shortage prevention mode to the predetermined period, and the remaining amount of hot water stored is equal to or higher than the threshold value. In the case of, the second period shorter than the first period set for the efficiency priority mode is set as the predetermined period.
   The hot water storage plan creation system according to claim 4.
6. Based on the difference between the remaining amount of hot water stored and the predetermined threshold value indicated by the actual data, the planning unit sets a shorter period in the predetermined period as the difference is larger, and sets a shorter period in the predetermined period as the difference is smaller. Set a long period,
   The hot water storage plan creation system according to claim 4.
7. When the hot water storage demand in the first unit time exceeds the amount of hot water that can be created per unit time, the planning unit may use the hot water storage demand in the first unit time and the first unit time in the predetermined period. The total of the hot water storage demand for each unit time in the future is set as the target hot water storage amount in the first unit time.
   The hot water storage plan creation system according to any one of claims 1 to 6.
8. When the hot water storage demand in the first unit time exceeds the amount of hot water that can be created per unit time, the planning unit calculates the number of unit hours corresponding to the time required to create hot water for the hot water storage demand. Then, the target hot water storage amount for the first unit time is set for the target hot water storage amount for each of the unit times for the number of minutes before the first unit time.
   The hot water storage plan creation system according to claim 7.
9. The planning unit calculates the amount of hot water that can be created per unit time by machine learning based on the amount of hot water actually created per unit time.
   The hot water storage plan creation system according to claim 8.
10. A prediction model creation unit that creates a prediction model that outputs the demand for hot water under the above conditions when a condition that affects the demand for hot water is input.
    A demand amount forecasting unit that creates the forecast data based on the conditions in the predetermined period and the forecast model.
    The hot water storage plan creation system according to any one of claims 1 to 8, further comprising.
11. It is a hot water storage plan creation method executed by the hot water storage plan creation system.
    Steps to acquire forecast data of hot water storage demand for each unit time in a predetermined period,
    Based on the forecast data, a step of creating a hot water storage plan that defines a target hot water storage amount for each unit time in the predetermined period, and
    How to make a hot water storage plan.
12. On the computer
    Steps to acquire forecast data of hot water storage demand for each unit time in a predetermined period,
    Based on the forecast data, a step of creating a hot water storage plan that defines a target hot water storage amount for each unit time in the predetermined period, and
    A program to execute.

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