WO2020066196A1 - Procédé d'évaluation de durée de vie de dispositif, dispositif d'évaluation de durée de vie de dispositif et programme d'évaluation de durée de vie de dispositif - Google Patents

Procédé d'évaluation de durée de vie de dispositif, dispositif d'évaluation de durée de vie de dispositif et programme d'évaluation de durée de vie de dispositif Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2020066196A1
WO2020066196A1 PCT/JP2019/026268 JP2019026268W WO2020066196A1 WO 2020066196 A1 WO2020066196 A1 WO 2020066196A1 JP 2019026268 W JP2019026268 W JP 2019026268W WO 2020066196 A1 WO2020066196 A1 WO 2020066196A1
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Prior art keywords
plant
inspection
life
plant equipment
information
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PCT/JP2019/026268
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English (en)
Japanese (ja)
Inventor
藤原良康
小田和則
宮前嘉夫
片山芳明
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株式会社テイエルブイ
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Priority to JP2019563108A priority Critical patent/JP6980034B2/ja
Publication of WO2020066196A1 publication Critical patent/WO2020066196A1/fr

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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G01—MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01M—TESTING STATIC OR DYNAMIC BALANCE OF MACHINES OR STRUCTURES; TESTING OF STRUCTURES OR APPARATUS, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G01M99/00—Subject matter not provided for in other groups of this subclass
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management

Definitions

  • the present invention relates to an apparatus life evaluation method, an apparatus life evaluation apparatus, and an apparatus life evaluation program for evaluating the apparatus life for each model of plant equipment.
  • One of the methods for evaluating the quality and reliability of industrial products is a method for evaluating the product life. Knowing the product life, i.e., the expected operating period from the start of operation of a product to the failure, can be used, for example, by a user of the product to make a maintenance plan, It can be used as an index by which suppliers evaluate product performance.
  • Patent Document 1 describes the number of days from the date of purchase of a product to the date of failure for a product sold through a retail store.
  • Patent Document 1 describes the number of days from the date of purchase of a product to the date of failure for a product sold through a retail store.
  • a technology for estimating the number of operating products and the service life based on manufacturing data and claim data held by a manufacturer is disclosed. This technology solves the problem that it is difficult to specify the start of operation in a consumer product by a method of estimating the start of operation based on purchase date information collected at a claim reception base.
  • Patent Document 2 discloses that even if a failed component causing a failure of a device is not specified, based on information on a replacement operation including such a case.
  • a technique for generating a survival curve used for calculating a failure probability is disclosed. According to this technique, it has been necessary to specify a component that caused a failure in order to generate a survival curve in the conventional technique. However, this technique has been successfully eliminated.
  • Patent Document 1 the technology disclosed in Patent Document 1 is based on the premise that a complaint reception base is notified at the time of occurrence of a failure, and therefore information is collected only when the device falls into an abnormal state.
  • Patent Literature 2 generates a survival curve based on a record of maintenance work performed on a failed device, and information is collected only when the device falls into an abnormal state. It can be said that. For this reason, the quality and quantity of information collected to evaluate the life of the apparatus may be insufficient.
  • plant equipment used in a plant for example, a steam trap used in a steam plant
  • a manager or supplier having specialty that is, plant equipment is inspected irrespective of whether or not a failure has occurred, and thus has a feature that information on not only equipment in an abnormal state but also equipment in a normal state can be obtained.
  • An apparatus life evaluation method is an apparatus life evaluation method for evaluating an apparatus life for each model of plant equipment, and inspects a plurality of plant equipment of an evaluation target model that are operating in a plant. Based on the result of the inspection, for each of the plurality of plant equipment, a diagnostic step of diagnosing whether the operating state of the plant equipment is normal or abnormal, and each of the plurality of plant equipment About, the operation start information on the operation start when the plant equipment starts operating in the plant, the inspection time information on the inspection time when the inspection is performed on the plant equipment in the diagnostic process, and Storing operating state information on the operating state diagnosed in the diagnosis step in a storage device. And a calculation step of calculating the device life of the model to be evaluated based on the operation start information, the inspection time information, and the operation state information accumulated in the accumulation step. I do.
  • the device life evaluation device is a device life evaluation device that evaluates the device life of each plant device model, and a plurality of plant devices of the model to be evaluated that are operating in the plant.
  • the result of the inspection performed on, and, based on the result of the inspection, for each of the plurality of plant equipment, the diagnosis of whether the operating state of the plant equipment is a normal state or an abnormal state
  • Inspection time information about the inspection time when the operation was performed and operation related to the operation state diagnosed in the diagnosis Storage unit that stores state information, the operation start information stored in the storage unit, the inspection time information, and, based on the operation state information, a calculation unit that calculates the device life of the model to be evaluated. , Is characterized by having.
  • the apparatus life evaluation program is an apparatus life evaluation program that evaluates the apparatus life of each model of plant equipment, and includes a plurality of plant equipment of the model to be evaluated that are operating in the plant.
  • the result of the inspection performed on, and, based on the result of the inspection, for each of the plurality of plant equipment, the diagnosis of whether the operating state of the plant equipment is a normal state or an abnormal state As a result, for each of the plurality of plant equipment, the input function for receiving the input of the result, the operation start information relating to the operation start when the plant equipment starts operating in the plant, and the inspection is performed on the plant equipment.
  • Inspection time information on the inspection time when the operation was performed, and the operating status diagnosed in the diagnosis Operating status information, a storage function for storing in a storage device, the operating start information, the inspection timing information, and the device life of the model to be evaluated based on the operating status information stored in the storing function. And an arithmetic function for performing an arithmetic operation.
  • the above-described device life evaluation method calculates the device life for each of a plurality of evaluation target models, and the device life evaluation process calculates the device life. And comparing the device life of each of the plurality of evaluation target models.
  • a survival rate curve of the evaluation target model is calculated, and a horizontal axis of the survival rate curve is an elapsed time from the operation start period,
  • the vertical axis of the survival rate curve is a survival rate representing the percentage of plant equipment of the evaluation target model that operates in a normal state after the elapsed time has elapsed, and the device life of the evaluation target model is the survival rate curve.
  • the elapsed time is the elapsed time at which the survival rate becomes a predetermined threshold value.
  • a highly accurate survival rate curve can be calculated based on the results of the inspection and diagnosis of the plant equipment.
  • a threshold suitable for the purpose of evaluation it is possible to calculate the life of the apparatus according to the purpose.
  • the survival rate curve is calculated by a Kaplan-Meier method.
  • a high-precision survival rate curve can be calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method, which has abundant application results in the field of the survival time analysis method.
  • the diagnostic step is performed a plurality of times, and an interval between the diagnostic steps executed a plurality of times is within a predetermined diagnostic cycle.
  • the diagnosis cycle is one year or less.
  • the device life can be calculated in units of one year or less, the calculated device life can be easily used for drafting a maintenance plan and evaluating device performance.
  • the apparatus life evaluation method according to the present invention is preferably configured such that the apparatus life can be calculated for each use condition in which the plant equipment is used.
  • the plant equipment is such that a fluid handled in the plant flows therein, and the use condition is that the plant equipment is used in the plant. And at least one of a fluid physical quantity that is a physical quantity related to a fluid flowing through the plant equipment.
  • the diagnosis step at least a part of the plurality of plant devices is inspected by an inspector by performing a visual inspection on each of the at least some plant devices. It is preferable to be performed.
  • the inspection and diagnosis of at least a part of the plurality of plant devices are performed by detecting at least one of the plant devices in advance. It is preferably performed based on a device physical quantity which is a physical quantity detected by the device.
  • the life of the device can be calculated based on the diagnosis reflecting the result of the inspection always performed by the detector provided in advance.
  • the diagnostic device when the detector detects a device physical quantity that deviates from a predetermined standard range, the diagnostic device includes the plant device provided with the detector. However, a primary diagnosis step of diagnosing a cautionary condition that may be in an abnormal state, and a plant device diagnosed as being in the cautionary state in the primary diagnosis step, an inspector performs a visual inspection, And a secondary diagnosis step of diagnosing whether the plant equipment is in a normal state or an abnormal state based on the result of the visual inspection.
  • the number of plant devices that execute the secondary diagnosis step of performing a visual inspection by an inspector can be limited, so that the man-hour, cost, time, and the like required for calculating the device life can be easily reduced.
  • the inspection stored as the inspection time information in the storage step is performed.
  • the time is when the primary diagnostic step is performed.
  • Embodiments of a device life evaluation method, a device life evaluation device, and a device life evaluation program according to the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
  • a steam trap 1 an example of plant equipment
  • a steam plant P an example of a plant
  • steam an example of a fluid
  • An example in which the apparatus life evaluation method according to the present embodiment is used to evaluate the apparatus life of each model of the steam trap 1 using the apparatus life evaluation apparatus 10 will be described.
  • the apparatus life evaluation method, the apparatus life evaluation apparatus, and the apparatus life evaluation program according to the present embodiment include one of the asset management methods. One is applicable.
  • the steam plant P includes a turbine, a compressor, a heat exchanger, and the like, that is, a device driven by kinetic energy extracted from steam, a device that consumes heat energy of steam to heat an object, and the like.
  • Piping systems such as steam utilization equipment that consumes the energy of steam to operate, transport pipes that transport steam to the steam utilization equipment, drain pipes that discharge drain generated from the steam utilization equipment, and steam provided in the piping system It has components such as a trap 1, process equipment such as a control valve, a pump, a filter, and a separator, and a steam supply equipment such as a water supply tank, a deaerator, and a boiler.
  • the operating conditions of the steam trap 1 include the site where the steam trap 1 is used in the steam plant P, the purpose for which the steam trap 1 is used, and the temperature, pressure, and flow rate of the steam flowing through the steam plant. , Etc., are specified for each steam trap 1.
  • Etc. a model suitable for use conditions is selected and installed from a plurality of models circulating on the market.
  • the device life evaluation device 10 includes the portable detector 2 and the arithmetic device 3 (FIG. 2).
  • the portable detector 2 is configured to be portable by an inspector, and a detector 2a capable of detecting a trap physical quantity (an example of an apparatus physical quantity) that is a physical quantity related to the steam trap 1; And a display unit 2c capable of displaying information necessary for an inspector to perform an inspection.
  • the arithmetic unit 3 is configured to be communicable with the portable detector 2 via the network 4 and receives various information transmitted from the portable detector 2.
  • the arithmetic device 3 includes a storage unit 3a (an example of a storage device) that can store such information and an arithmetic unit 3b that can perform various calculations based on the information.
  • the device life evaluation method according to the present embodiment includes a diagnosis step, an accumulation step, and a calculation step.
  • the diagnosis step includes inspection of the steam trap 1 by an inspector, and diagnosis of the operating state of the steam trap 1 by the inspector. Specifically, the inspector detects the trap physical quantity using the detection unit 2a of the portable detector 2 for each of the plurality of steam traps 1 operating in the steam plant P. The detected physical quantity of the trap is displayed on the display unit 2c, and the inspector can sequentially confirm this during the inspection work.
  • the detected physical quantities of the trap include vibration and temperature. If the detected vibration exceeds a predetermined threshold value, it is suspected that a steam leak has occurred in the steam trap 1. If the detected temperature is lower than a predetermined threshold, it is suspected that the steam trap 1 is clogged. The inspector performs a visual inspection in addition to the detection of these trap physical quantities.
  • diagnosis cycle is one year, and the next diagnosis step is executed within a period not exceeding one year from the execution of the previous diagnosis step.
  • the input of the basic information is omitted if the basic information is not changed from the previous accumulation step in the second and subsequent accumulation steps for the steam trap 1.
  • the basic information input to the input unit 2b is transmitted to the arithmetic unit 3 via the network 4, and is stored in the storage unit 3a.
  • the inspector inputs operating state information on the operating state of the steam trap 1 diagnosed in the diagnostic process, that is, whether the operating state of the steam trap 1 is normal or abnormal, to the input unit 2b.
  • the operating state information input to the input unit 2b is transmitted to the arithmetic unit 3 via the network 4 together with the inspection time information on the inspection time when the inspection based on the operating state information is performed, and is stored. It is stored in the unit 3a.
  • Table 1 shows a part of the information stored in the storage unit 3a in the above-described storage process. As shown in Table 1, it is stored in the storage unit 3a that the steam traps A to H are the model a and the steam traps I to L are the model b. In addition, with respect to all the steam traps, the operation start period (year) and the operation state information in the diagnostic process performed every year from 2011 to 2017 are stored in the storage unit 3a. In the column of the operating state information, a portion indicated by a hyphen (-) indicates that the steam trap was not present, the diagnosis process of the steam trap was not performed, and the like. It means that the information of the year has not been accumulated. In Table 1, the description relating to the portion having the ID D indicates that the steam trap D1 was replaced with the steam trap D2 of the same model (model a) after the abnormality was discovered in the diagnosis process of 2015. Show.
  • Table 1 Example of information stored in storage process
  • the calculation unit 3b calculates a survival rate curve of the evaluation target model, and determines the device life of the evaluation target model based on the survival rate curve.
  • the survival rate curve is calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. The specific method will be described below. In the following description, “model a” in Table 1 will be described as a model to be evaluated.
  • the information shown in Table 1 is arranged for each number of years elapsed from the start of operation.
  • the information on the model b is excluded from the calculation target.
  • the steam trap A was in a normal state in 2011, which is one year after the operation start period of 2010, so that the column of the elapsed year "1 year” indicates that "normal”. It is remembered. Further, the steam trap C, whose operation is started in 2011, is in a normal state from 2012 (one year after the start of operation) to 2016 (five years after the start of operation), and in 2017 (six years after the start of operation). ), It was confirmed that the state was abnormal, so the column of elapsed years “1 year” to “5 years” was “normal” and the column of elapsed years “6 years” was “abnormal”. Is stored.
  • Table 2 Examples of information organized by years elapsed since the beginning of operation
  • Table 3 Example of total number of operation, normal number, and normal rate for each year after installation
  • the normal rate for each year after installation as shown in Table 3 is integrated to calculate the survival rate for each elapsed year.
  • the horizontal axis is the elapsed years (an example of the elapsed time from the start of operation), and the vertical axis is plotted as the survival rate for each elapsed year, thereby obtaining a survival rate curve (FIG. 3).
  • the elapsed years at which the survival rate becomes a predetermined threshold value is determined as the device life of the model a which is the evaluation target model. For example, assuming that the threshold is 70%, in FIG. 3, the survival rate is 80% at the age of 4 years and the survival rate is 60% at the age of 5 years. %. Therefore, the device life of the model a is determined to be 4.5 years.
  • the information stored in the storage unit 3a in the storage step and targeted for calculation in the calculation step is not only information on the steam trap 1 operating in a specific steam plant P, but also the steam operating in a plurality of steam plants P.
  • the above-described diagnosis process, accumulation process, and calculation process are performed on a plurality of evaluation target models, and the device life and survival rate curves are obtained for each evaluation target model. Is calculated.
  • the device life and survival rate curve of “model a” is calculated as described above, and the device life and survival rate of “model b” and “model c (not shown in Table 1)” are also calculated. An example in which the calculation of a curve is performed will be described.
  • the calculation unit 3b compares the device life and the survival rate curves of the plurality of evaluation target models.
  • the device life and the survival rate curves of the models a to c are compared by plotting the survival rate curves of the models a to c calculated in the device life evaluation step on one graph. 4).
  • the device life of the model a is 4.5 years as described above, whereas the device life of the model b is 4.3 years. It can be seen that the device life of c is 2.0 years. Further, it can be seen that the model b has slightly lower performance than the model a in terms of the numerical value of the device life, but the survival rate when the elapsed years exceed 5 years is greatly inferior to the model a.
  • FIG. 5 shows a steam trap of a specific evaluation target model in which the pressure of the flowing steam (hereinafter referred to as working pressure) is 0.5 MPa or less, 0.5 to 1.0 MPa or less, and This is an example in which the survival rate is calculated for each of the classifications of 1.0 to 1.5 MPa or less.
  • working pressure the pressure of the flowing steam
  • the survival rate is calculated for each of the classifications of 1.0 to 1.5 MPa or less.
  • the steam traps may be classified according to the temperature and flow rate of the flowing steam in addition to the pressure, that is, according to an arbitrary steam physical quantity.
  • FIG. 6 shows a case where the steam trap of a specific evaluation target model is installed in a state where there is no trapping failure, the emission capacity does not match the installation location (emission capacity selection error), and the model does not match the installation location.
  • This is an example in which the system is classified into two types: (model selection error), and an installation state with each trapping defect that is not installed in the correct mounting posture (incorrect mounting posture), and a survival rate curve is calculated for each classification. .
  • the survival rate curve and the device life for each installation state the influence of the trapping failure on the device life can be evaluated for each type of trapping failure, and the priority for eliminating the trapping failure can be determined. can do.
  • the totalization for each use condition may be performed for each part (the use of the trap) where the steam trap 1 is used in the steam plant P, for example.
  • the steam trap is installed on the main pipe, installed on an iron trace, installed on a copper trace, etc. It can be objectively evaluated that the life of the device differs depending on the location where the device 1 is installed.
  • the trap physical quantity is detected using the permanent detector provided in the steam trap 1 in advance. May be configured.
  • the permanent detector constantly monitors the trap physical quantity, and the permanent detector is provided when the permanent detector detects a trap physical quantity that deviates from a predetermined standard range in the constant monitoring. It is diagnosed that the steam trap 1 is in the caution state.
  • the caution state means that the steam trap 1 may be in an abnormal state.
  • the steps including the above-described constant monitoring and diagnosis of the caution state are referred to as primary diagnosis steps.
  • the inspector performs a visual inspection only on the specific steam trap 1 diagnosed as requiring caution in the primary diagnosis step.
  • the detection of the trap physical quantity using the portable detector 2 may be performed again.
  • the inspection by the inspector including at least the visual inspection is performed, and based on the result, it is finally diagnosed whether the steam trap 1 is in the normal state or the abnormal state.
  • the steps including the visual inspection by the inspector and the final diagnosis of the operating state are referred to as secondary diagnosis steps.
  • the secondary diagnosis step when the steam trap 1 is diagnosed as being in an abnormal state, the time when the permanent detector detects a trap physical quantity that deviates from a predetermined standard range in the primary diagnosis step is input in the accumulation step.
  • the inspection time information may be input to the section 2b.
  • plant equipment to be evaluated includes a turbine, a compressor, a generator, a heat exchanger, a transport pipe, a drain pipe, a control valve, a pump, a filter, a separator, a water supply tank, It may be a deaerator, a boiler, a reboiler, or the like.
  • the survival rate curve is calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method.
  • the survival curve is calculated by a survival time analysis method assuming a known distribution such as a Weibull distribution, an exponential distribution, a lognormal distribution, a gamma distribution, and a logistic distribution. You may.
  • the diagnosis cycle may be any period.
  • the diagnosis cycle is short, the accuracy of the calculated device life tends to be improved, and when the diagnosis cycle is long, the man-hour and cost required for inspection and diagnosis tend to be reduced. Therefore, the diagnosis cycle should be appropriately determined in consideration of the required accuracy of the device life and man-hours and costs that can be spent.
  • the diagnosis cycle it is preferable that the diagnosis cycle be within one year, because the device life can be calculated with sufficiently high accuracy for many plant devices.
  • a predetermined threshold for determining the device life is the structure, material, and use conditions of the plant equipment to be evaluated, and the user of the plant equipment or Any value can be used according to the conditions required by the supplier.
  • the present invention can be used, for example, for evaluating the equipment life of a steam trap operating in a steam plant.

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Abstract

L'invention ‌concerne‌ ‌un‌ procédé d'évaluation de durée de vie de dispositif qui est caractérisé en ce qu'il comprend : une étape de diagnostic consistant à inspecter une pluralité de dispositifs d'installation (1) d'un modèle à évaluer qui fonctionnent dans une installation (P), et à diagnostiquer l'état de fonctionnement de chacun des dispositifs d'installation (1) sur la base des résultats d'inspection ; une étape d'accumulation consistant à accumuler des informations de temps de début d'opération, des informations de période de temps d'inspection et des informations d'état de fonctionnement dans un dispositif de stockage pour chacun des dispositifs d'installation (1); et une étape de calcul consistant à calculer la durée de vie de dispositif du modèle à évaluer sur la base des informations de temps de début de fonctionnement, des informations de période de temps d'inspection et des informations d'état de fonctionnement.
PCT/JP2019/026268 2018-09-27 2019-07-02 Procédé d'évaluation de durée de vie de dispositif, dispositif d'évaluation de durée de vie de dispositif et programme d'évaluation de durée de vie de dispositif WO2020066196A1 (fr)

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Cited By (1)

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JP2022129723A (ja) * 2021-02-25 2022-09-06 株式会社ミヤワキ 測定診断システム、サーバ及び測定装置

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JP2010216983A (ja) * 2009-03-17 2010-09-30 Toshiba Corp 機器寿命評価システムおよび機器寿命評価方法

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JPH05106802A (ja) * 1991-03-26 1993-04-27 Ebara Boiler Kk ボイラにおける伝熱面の汚れ検出装置
JP2010216983A (ja) * 2009-03-17 2010-09-30 Toshiba Corp 機器寿命評価システムおよび機器寿命評価方法

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Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
JP2022129723A (ja) * 2021-02-25 2022-09-06 株式会社ミヤワキ 測定診断システム、サーバ及び測定装置
JP7244120B2 (ja) 2021-02-25 2023-03-22 株式会社ミヤワキ 測定データ送信システム及びサーバ

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