WO2020019785A1 - Procédé et appareil de prédiction d'événement et dispositif électronique - Google Patents

Procédé et appareil de prédiction d'événement et dispositif électronique Download PDF

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WO2020019785A1
WO2020019785A1 PCT/CN2019/084132 CN2019084132W WO2020019785A1 WO 2020019785 A1 WO2020019785 A1 WO 2020019785A1 CN 2019084132 W CN2019084132 W CN 2019084132W WO 2020019785 A1 WO2020019785 A1 WO 2020019785A1
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result
blockchain
chain
certificate
prediction
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PCT/CN2019/084132
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English (en)
Chinese (zh)
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陆旭明
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阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q20/00—Payment architectures, schemes or protocols
    • G06Q20/38—Payment protocols; Details thereof
    • G06Q20/382—Payment protocols; Details thereof insuring higher security of transaction
    • G06Q20/3821—Electronic credentials

Definitions

  • One or more embodiments of the present specification relate to the field of blockchain technology, and in particular, to an event prediction method and device, and an electronic device.
  • event prediction can be performed in a variety of ways, such as predictive analysis based on historical data, and then predictive analysis based on a prediction model trained on samples. Due to the differences in the prediction data used, the prediction method used, and the prediction environment, the different participants often get different prediction results when they participate in the prediction of the results for the same event, even with large deviations. .
  • one or more embodiments of the present specification provide a
  • an event prediction method is proposed, which is applied to a blockchain node; the method includes:
  • the smart contract Invoking a smart contract for asset allocation in the blockchain, the smart contract is used to read the comparison result to send an allocation instruction to an off-chain object according to the comparison result, and the allocation instruction is used to instruct the The off-chain object allocates a first off-chain equity certificate to the participant.
  • an event prediction device which is applied to a blockchain node; the device includes:
  • An obtaining unit which obtains a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event published on the blockchain, and an input time of the prediction result is earlier than an occurrence time of an actual result of the specified event;
  • a comparison unit by comparing the predicted result with the actual result, publishing a corresponding comparison result to the blockchain;
  • the first calling unit calls a smart contract for asset allocation in the blockchain, the smart contract is used to read the comparison result to send an allocation instruction to an off-chain object according to the comparison result, the allocation The instruction is used to instruct the off-chain object to allocate a first off-chain equity certificate to the participant.
  • an electronic device including:
  • Memory for storing processor-executable instructions
  • the processor executes the executable instruction to implement the event prediction method according to any one of the foregoing embodiments.
  • FIG. 1 is a flowchart of an event prediction method according to an exemplary embodiment.
  • FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of predicting an event result according to an exemplary embodiment.
  • FIG. 3 is a flowchart of a function logic for performing prediction on an event according to an exemplary embodiment.
  • FIG. 4 is a flowchart of another function logic for performing prediction on an event according to an exemplary embodiment.
  • FIG. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of a device according to an exemplary embodiment.
  • FIG. 6 is a block diagram of an event prediction apparatus according to an exemplary embodiment.
  • the steps of the corresponding method are not necessarily performed in the order shown and described in this specification.
  • the method may include more or fewer steps than described in this specification.
  • a single step described in this specification may be divided into multiple steps for description in other embodiments; and multiple steps described in this specification may be combined into a single step for other embodiments. description.
  • FIG. 1 is a flowchart of an event prediction method according to an exemplary embodiment. As shown in Figure 1, the method is applied to a blockchain node and can include the following steps:
  • Step 102 Obtain a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event published on the blockchain, and an input time of the prediction result is earlier than an occurrence time of an actual result of the specified event.
  • the transaction can be used to publish the prediction results entered by the participants on the blockchain, becoming one of the distributed databases in the blockchain. Data.
  • a narrow transaction refers to a value transfer issued by a user to the blockchain; for example, in a traditional Bitcoin blockchain network, a transaction can be a transfer initiated by a user in the blockchain.
  • the generalized transaction refers to a piece of business data with business intent issued by the user to the blockchain; for example, the operator can build an alliance chain based on actual business needs, and rely on the alliance chain to deploy other types that are not related to value transfer.
  • Online business (such as event forecasting, renting business, vehicle dispatching business, insurance claims business, credit service, medical service, etc.), and in this type of alliance chain, the transaction can be a transaction issued by the user in the alliance chain.
  • Intent business message or business request Transactions in this description should be interpreted as transactions in a broad sense.
  • the blockchain uses a distributed database, the prediction results published on the blockchain cannot be tampered with, and the prediction results can be ensured to be true and reliable.
  • the prediction result input by the participant can be published to the blockchain by the aforementioned blockchain node.
  • the prediction result input by the participant may be published to the blockchain by other blockchain nodes different from the above-mentioned blockchain node, and the above-mentioned blockchain node may obtain information related to the prediction result, and
  • the prediction result (or a hash value of the prediction result) can be recorded in a local database (ie, a blockchain ledger) maintained by the blockchain node.
  • one or more participants can predict the same event, so that there can be prediction results corresponding to each participant on the blockchain; wherein each participant can have a corresponding unique identifier, such that The prediction results released by each participant can be associated with its unique identification, so as to effectively distinguish the various prediction results released on the blockchain.
  • the designated event is any event that is indicated to be determined to require result prediction, such as traffic conditions at an intersection, rice harvest in a certain area, typhoon formation time in a certain sea area, etc., which is not described in this specification. limit.
  • the input time of the prediction result should be earlier than the occurrence time of the actual result of the specified event.
  • the input time can be recorded in the transaction that contains the prediction result in the blockchain, or the transaction can be created directly.
  • the time is used as the input time.
  • the specified event is an instantaneous event, that is, the time period from the start time to the end time of the specified event is short, which is not enough for the participant to input the prediction result within the time period, and the participant The predicted result can be entered at any time before the actual result occurs.
  • the specified event is a non-transient event, that is, the participant can input the prediction result in a time period between the start time and the end time of the specified event, which can limit the participant in the specified event. Enter the prediction result after the start time of.
  • Step 104 Publish a corresponding comparison result to the blockchain by comparing the prediction result with the actual result.
  • the above-mentioned blockchain node compares the prediction result with the actual result, and the comparison result can be published on the blockchain after consensus. Because the predicted results input by the participants and the actual results of the specified event are recorded on the blockchain, any blockchain node can verify the above comparison results to determine the validity of the comparison results.
  • the comparison result includes a matching situation between the predicted result and the actual result, such as complete agreement, partial agreement, and complete inconsistency.
  • step 106 a smart contract for asset allocation in the blockchain is called, and the smart contract is used to read the comparison result to send an allocation instruction to an off-chain object according to the comparison result. And instructing the off-chain object to allocate a first off-chain equity certificate to the participant.
  • the smart contract can pre-write the processing logic for assigning smart asset credentials based on the comparison result, so that the smart contract can automatically determine whether the first off-chain equity certificate needs to be allocated to the corresponding participants based on the comparison result.
  • the processing logic on the smart contract is public content, and the entire processing process is automatically completed by the smart contract, there is no manual intervention, so that the distribution of off-chain equity credentials can ensure objectivity and fairness.
  • the prediction result matches the actual result, it indicates that the participant providing the prediction result has a certain accuracy for the result prediction of the specified event. Then, by allocating the first off-chain equity certificate to the participants, you can control the amount of off-chain equity certificates held by each participant, thereby achieving a marking effect for each participant to a certain extent: the more off-chain equity certificates are held The stronger the ability of the participants to predict the event result, so in the subsequent event prediction process, the participants with strong prediction ability can be quickly selected according to this, in order to obtain a relatively more accurate prediction result from these participants.
  • the off-chain equity voucher is used to characterize certain rights and interests, so as to realize the incentive for the participant to accurately predict the specified event, which helps the participant to continue to participate in the prediction of subsequent events, thereby achieving a virtuous circle.
  • the preset operation can include issuing transactions, initiating consensus (such as initiation based on PBFT's practical Byzantine fault tolerance algorithm), etc., and the off-chain equity credentials can be converted into a blockchain Equivalent smart asset vouchers are included, and a certain amount of smart asset vouchers are allocated to each blockchain node to facilitate the preset operation to be completed smoothly as soon as possible.
  • the off-chain equity voucher may include a voucher for characterizing any type of off-chain equity, such as membership points in a member system, coupons, exchange coupons, discount coupons, etc. on the trading platform.
  • a voucher for characterizing any type of off-chain equity such as membership points in a member system, coupons, exchange coupons, discount coupons, etc. on the trading platform. The manual does not limit this.
  • the above-mentioned smart contract may be called under the driving of a transaction or another smart contract to trigger it to read the above-mentioned prediction result and actual result from the blockchain, thereby further implementing the events of this specification. Forecast scenario.
  • the actual result of the specified event can be published by the Oracle node in the blockchain to the blockchain. Since the data provided by the Oracle node is considered absolutely reliable, it can be guaranteed The accuracy of this actual result.
  • the actual result of the designated event may be published by any blockchain node in the blockchain to the blockchain after consensus.
  • any blockchain node may A consensus is initiated in the blockchain to confirm the actual results provided by any one of the blockchain nodes. When the actual result passes the consensus of each blockchain node, it shows that the actual result has sufficient accuracy and can be verified by It should be used for comparison with predicted results.
  • the specified event includes one or more sub-events
  • the prediction result is used to perform result prediction on the one or more sub-events; wherein the smart contract is used to predict When the result predictions of the one or more sub-events are all correct, the first off-chain equity certificate is allocated to the participants.
  • the prediction result is determined by the smart contract to match the actual result of the specified event.
  • the designated event includes multiple sub-events; when the first off-chain equity certificate is allocated to the participant, the size of the equity represented by the first off-chain equity certificate is positively related to the A proportion of the sub-events accurately predicted by the prediction result among the multiple sub-events.
  • the size of the equity represented by the first off-chain equity certificate can be The preset maximum value; when the prediction result is completely different from the actual result, that is, the proportion of the sub-events accurately predicted by the prediction result in the multiple sub-events is 0%, which is characterized by the first off-chain equity certificate
  • the equity size can be a preset minimum value (0 or other preset value).
  • the size of the equity represented by the first off-chain equity certificate can be linearly changed. For example, when the proportion of equity is 30%, the magnitude of equity is 30% of a preset maximum value, and for example, when the proportion is 80%, The equity is 80% of the preset maximum.
  • the size of the equity represented by the first off-chain equity certificate can be changed non-linearly. For example, when the proportion is 30%, the equity is 10% of the preset maximum value, and for example, the proportion is 80%. When the equity size is 50% of the preset maximum value, for example, when the proportion is 95%, the equity size is 80% of the preset maximum value.
  • the specified event includes multiple sub-events.
  • the prediction result is not completely consistent with the actual result, regardless of the proportion of the sub-events accurately predicted by the prediction result among the multiple sub-events, It can be determined that the two do not match, and thus the first off-chain equity certificate will not be distributed to the participants.
  • the second off-chain equity certificate held by the participant is frozen as a guarantee certificate for guaranteeing the validity of the predicted result; wherein the smart contract is used for
  • a deduction instruction is sent to the manager of the guarantee certificate to release the participant's holding relationship to the guarantee certificate.
  • the equity represented by the security voucher when the equity represented by the security voucher is greater, it indicates that the participant is more confident in the prediction result provided by himself. Then, when the prediction result matches the actual result, it indicates to a certain extent that the participant does have a very strong Therefore, by setting the size of the equity represented by the first-chain equity certificate to be positively related to the size of the equity represented by the security certificate, the forecasting ability of the corresponding participant can be more accurately labeled, and Provide greater incentives for corresponding parties.
  • the participant even if the participant does not freeze to form the security voucher, he can still participate in the prediction of the result of the specified event, and obtain the above-mentioned first off-chain equity certificate if the predicted result matches the actual result.
  • the prediction result entered by the participant is determined to be invalid, so that it cannot really participate in the prediction of the result of the specified event; or, between the predicted result and the actual result.
  • the first off-chain equity certificate can be assigned to the participant, the first off-chain equity certificate cannot represent any equity equivalent to no off-chain equity certificate assigned, making the participation of the participant meaningless .
  • the calling conditions of the smart contract may include: a third off-chain equity certificate held by the off-chain object is frozen, and the frozen off-chain equity certificate is sufficient for the allocation instruction Respond.
  • a third off-chain equity certificate held by the off-chain object is frozen
  • the frozen off-chain equity certificate is sufficient for the allocation instruction Respond.
  • the off-chain object may resume the holding of the third off-chain equity certificate. If the off-chain object does not assign the first off-chain equity certificate to the participant, the smart contract used to assign the off-chain equity certificate may send a mandatory allocation instruction to the manager of the third off-chain equity certificate To obtain the first off-chain equity certificate from the third off-chain equity certificate and distribute it to the participants. Among them, the response of the off-chain object to the allocation instruction can be monitored by the blockchain node.
  • the response can be transmitted to the blockchain by the aforementioned oracle machine node to ensure the accuracy of its message; or the oracle machine node will After the above response situation is transmitted to the blockchain, the smart contract for distributing off-chain equity vouchers can automatically determine whether the off-chain object allocates the first off-chain equity voucher to the participants, and automatically send the above Mandatory allocation instructions.
  • FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of predicting an event result according to an exemplary embodiment. As shown in FIG. 2, it is assumed that the user A wishes to participate in the prediction of the result for the event B, and the user A can input the prediction result through the mobile phone 21 with the client installed.
  • the prediction result can be obtained by user A in any way, for example, by user A performing big data analysis on historical data through a server not shown in FIG. 2, or for example, by user A based on his own experience, which is not described in this specification. Limitation.
  • the device 22 is configured as a blockchain node in the blockchain, and the device 22 can receive the prediction result sent by the mobile phone 21; based on the logged-in account on the client running the mobile phone 21, the prediction result can be determined as coming from the user A.
  • the mobile phone 21 may also send the above prediction results to other blockchain nodes in the blockchain.
  • the processing process of these blockchain nodes is similar to that of the device 22, and reference may be made to the description of the device 22 in this specification.
  • other users can also predict the result of Event B and send it to device 22 or other blockchain nodes through their mobile phones or other electronic devices.
  • the processing process of these users is similar to that of User A. You can refer to this manual for details. A description of user A.
  • the device 22 can agree on the prediction result input by the user A in the blockchain, so that the prediction result is released to the blockchain after passing the consensus to be recorded in the blockchain's distributed database, that is, "on-chain” .
  • This specification does not limit the type of consensus algorithm used; for example, when the block chain where the device 22 is located is an alliance chain or a public chain, the device 22 may be based on algorithms such as PBFT (Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance).
  • Other blockchain nodes initiate consensus, and after the consensus is passed, the prediction result is published to the blockchain, so that it is recorded in the blockchain's distributed database; for another example, when the blockchain where device 22 is located is In the public chain, the device 22 can compete with other blockchain nodes for bookkeeping rights based on the POW (Proof of Work, Proof of Work) algorithm, POS (Proof of Stake, Proof of Stake) algorithm, or other algorithms, and obtain the bookkeeping by
  • POW Proof of Work, Proof of Work
  • POS Proof of Stake, Proof of Stake
  • the right blockchain node records transaction data into the corresponding block, and when the transaction containing the prediction result input by user A is recorded, the prediction result can be recorded in the blockchain's distributed database.
  • the blockchain can include a predictor node 23, which can obtain data off-chain (that is, outside the blockchain) and transfer the data off-chain into the blockchain.
  • the oracle node 23 can obtain the actual result of event B from the off-chain, and publish the actual result to the blockchain for recording in the blockchain's distributed database, that is, "on-chain”.
  • the process of implementing event prediction it actually contains two functional logics: the first is the functional logic 1 for determining the comparison result between the predicted result and the actual result, and the second is the functional logic for assigning smart asset credentials based on the comparison result 2.
  • the device 22 can read the prediction result input by the user A and the actual result of the event B passed by the oracle node 23 from the blockchain, and compare the prediction result with the actual result to obtain Corresponding comparison results.
  • the device 22 can publish the comparison result to the blockchain, so that the comparison result can be recorded in the distributed database of the blockchain after consensus. Since the prediction results and actual results are all published to the blockchain, any blockchain node can confirm the comparison results issued by the device 22 by querying the prediction results and actual results to ensure that the comparison results are true and valid.
  • a smart contract can be created on the blockchain in advance, and the above-mentioned functional logic 2 is defined in the smart contract, so that the smart contract can be automatically allocated to user A according to the comparison result issued by the device 22 after being called.
  • the off-chain equity certificate, and in the process can avoid human intervention, ensure accuracy and effectiveness, and make the comparison results objective and accurate.
  • a smart contract can be called by a transaction on the blockchain or other smart contracts to trigger its automatic implementation of related functional logic, such as the functional logic described above for determining the matching between predicted results and actual results. Wait.
  • the device 22 may issue a transaction in the blockchain or call other smart contracts to implement the above-mentioned smart contract; or, it may call the above-mentioned smart contract by other blockchain nodes, and this specification does not limit this.
  • the above-mentioned smart contract can be run on the device 22 to automatically implement the above-mentioned functional logic.
  • FIG. 3 is a flowchart of a function logic for performing prediction on an event according to an exemplary embodiment. As shown in FIG. 3, steps 302 to 306 correspond to the above-mentioned functional logic 1.
  • the functional logic 1 may be implemented by the device 22 as a blockchain node, and steps 308A to 310C correspond to the aforementioned functional logic 2.
  • the functional logic 2 may be Called smart contract implementation; where:
  • Step 302 Obtain the prediction result of user A from the blockchain.
  • the prediction result of user A is recorded in a transaction on the blockchain.
  • the transaction can be marked as related to event B, so that the device 22 can find the transaction from the blockchain accordingly.
  • obtain the prediction result of user A For example, the device 22 may obtain the prediction result input by the user A by scanning a transaction record of a specific address or a transaction record of a specific serial number.
  • the prediction results input by other users are also recorded on the blockchain.
  • the device 22 can obtain these prediction results in a similar manner, which will not be described in detail here.
  • Step 304 Obtain actual results from the blockchain.
  • the actual result passed in by the oracle node 23 is recorded in a transaction on the blockchain, and the transaction can be marked as related to event B, so that the device 22 can be retrieved from the blockchain accordingly. Find the transaction and get the actual result.
  • the device 22 may obtain the actual result by scanning a transaction record of a specific address or a transaction record of a specific serial number.
  • Step 306 Compare the prediction result of the user A with the actual result of the event B, and determine whether the prediction result is consistent with the actual result.
  • event B is the only event and does not include multiple sub-events, so that there are only two cases of the predicted result and the actual result: the result is consistent or the result is not consistent.
  • the predicted results should have the same data structure as the actual results to facilitate comparison operations. For example, suppose event B is the traffic condition of a certain intersection during the rush hour.
  • step 308A when the prediction result is consistent with the actual result, it is determined whether a guarantee certificate exists for the user A.
  • step 310A when a guarantee certificate exists, an allocation instruction 1 is sent to the institution C.
  • step 310B when there is no guarantee certificate, an allocation instruction 2 is sent to the institution C.
  • the user A may configure a corresponding guarantee credential on the prediction result input by the user A, so as to guarantee the validity of the prediction result.
  • user A may have a corresponding account a outside the blockchain, and through the account a holds certain off-chain equity credentials, at least part of the off-chain equity credentials in the account a may be frozen as The above-mentioned security certificate; for example, the account a may temporarily transfer at least a part of the off-chain equity certificate into a dedicated voucher freezing account, or may add a frozen logo to the at least a part of the off-chain equity certificate in the account a, This specification does not limit this.
  • the guarantee certificate is not necessary: if there is a guarantee certificate, the distribution instruction 1 can be sent to the institution C, so that the institution C allocates the off-chain equity certificate S1 to the user A, and if there is no guarantee certificate, it can be distributed to the institution C Send distribution instruction 2 so that the institution C assigns off-chain equity certificate S2 to user A; of which, the equity represented by off-chain equity certificate S1 should be greater than the equity represented by off-chain equity certificate S2 to indicate that the security certificate is provided to user A , And makes user A more off-chain equity credentials, which indicates that the user A's forecasting ability becomes stronger or the prediction accuracy increases.
  • the interests represented by the off-chain equity certificates S1 and S2 can be fixed values, or the interests represented by the off-chain equity certificates S1 and S2 can be positively correlated with the interests represented by the security certificates, that is, the equity represented by the guarantee certificates The greater / more, the greater / more equity is represented by the off-chain equity certificates S1, S2.
  • a certain threshold may be set for participating user B's result prediction, such as requiring user A to provide a guarantee certificate. Therefore, in the case where there is a security certificate, the off-chain equity certificate S1 can be assigned to the user A.
  • the off-chain equity certificate S1 is used to characterize a certain interest; and when the security certificate does not exist, the off-chain distribution to the user A
  • the equity certificate S2 cannot characterize any equity, which is equivalent to not assigning any off-chain equity certificates, so the participation of user A will be meaningless.
  • step 308B when the prediction result is inconsistent with the actual result, it is determined whether a guarantee certificate exists for the user A.
  • Step 310C When a security certificate exists, the security certificate is deducted.
  • user A when the prediction result is inconsistent with the actual result, that is, user A's prediction of the result of event B is inaccurate or the prediction fails, user A can terminate holding the off-chain equity certificate corresponding to the guarantee certificate by deducting the guarantee certificate , Then the off-chain equity certificate held by user A is reduced to indicate that the prediction ability of user A is weakened or the prediction accuracy is reduced.
  • the guarantee voucher corresponding to user A may have a management party, such as an account management system, and the smart contract may send a deduction instruction to the management party, so that the management party deducts the corresponding guarantee in response to the deduction instruction. certificate.
  • a management party such as an account management system
  • FIG. 4 is a flowchart of another function logic for performing prediction on an event according to an exemplary embodiment.
  • steps 402 to 406 correspond to the above-mentioned functional logic 1.
  • the functional logic 1 can be implemented by the device 22 as a blockchain node, and steps 408A to 410D correspond to the aforementioned functional logic 2.
  • the functional logic 2 can be Called smart contract implementation; where:
  • Step 402 Obtain the prediction result of user A from the blockchain.
  • Step 404 Obtain actual results from the blockchain.
  • steps 402 to 404 may refer to steps 302 to 304 shown in FIG. 3, and details are not described herein again.
  • Step 406 Compare the prediction result of the user A with the actual result of the event B, and generate a corresponding comparison result.
  • the event B includes multiple sub-events. If the prediction result of the user A accurately predicts all the sub-events, the prediction result is completely consistent with the actual result; and if the user A only accurately predicts part of the sub-events Result, or user A has only implemented predictions for some sub-events, then the prediction results may be partially consistent with the actual results; of course, it is possible that user A's predictions for all sub-events are incorrect, and the prediction results and the actual results are completely Not consistent.
  • the predicted result and the actual result should have the same data structure, so as to facilitate the comparison operation.
  • event B is the traffic condition of an intersection during the commute rush hour.
  • the predicted results and actual results can include the fields m1 and m2 respectively.
  • the m1 field represents the traffic conditions during the morning rush hour and m2 represents the traffic conditions during the evening rush hour .
  • step 408A when the prediction result is completely consistent with the actual result, it is determined whether the user A has a guarantee certificate.
  • step 410A when a guarantee certificate exists, an allocation instruction 1 is sent to the institution C.
  • step 410B when there is no guarantee certificate, an allocation instruction 2 is sent to the institution C.
  • step 408A, step 410A, and step 410B may refer to step 308A, step 310A, and step 310B shown in FIG. 3, and details are not described herein again.
  • Step 408B when the predicted result is completely inconsistent with the actual result, if there is a guarantee certificate, the guarantee certificate is deducted.
  • the user A may configure a corresponding guarantee credential for the prediction result input by the user A to guarantee the validity of the prediction result. Then, when the prediction result is completely inconsistent with the actual result, that is, user A's prediction of the result of event B is inaccurate or the prediction fails, user A can be deducted from the security certificate by deducting the security certificate. The number of off-chain equity certificates held by A is reduced to indicate that the user A's prediction ability is weakened or the prediction accuracy is reduced.
  • step 408C when the prediction result is consistent with the actual result, it is determined whether a guarantee certificate exists for the user A.
  • step 410A when a guarantee certificate exists, an allocation instruction 3 is sent to the institution C.
  • step 410B when there is no guarantee certificate, an allocation instruction 4 is sent to the institution C.
  • the prediction result when the prediction result is consistent with the actual result, it indicates that the user A has a certain degree of prediction ability. Therefore, for the labeling of this part of the prediction ability, and for the user A Incentive, you can send distribution instruction 3 or distribution instruction 4 to institution C, so that institution C allocates certain off-chain equity credentials to user A.
  • the guarantee certificate is not necessary: if a guarantee certificate exists, the off-chain equity certificate S3 can be assigned to the user A, and if there is no guarantee certificate, the off-chain equity certificate S4 can be assigned to the user A; In terms of equity, S1> S3> S4, S1> S2> S4.
  • the rights and interests represented by the off-chain equity vouchers S1 and S3 may be corresponding fixed values, or the rights and interests represented by the off-chain equity vouchers S1 and S3 may be positively related to the rights and interests represented by the security vouchers, respectively. That is, when the equity represented by the security certificate is larger / more, the equity represented by the smart asset certificate S1, S3 is larger / more.
  • a certain threshold may be set for participating user B's result prediction, such as requiring user A to provide a guarantee certificate. Therefore, in the case where there is a security certificate, the off-chain equity certificate S3 can be assigned to the user A, and the off-chain equity certificate S3 is used to characterize a certain interest; and when there is no security certificate, the off-chain distribution to the user A The equity certificate S4 cannot characterize any equity, which is equivalent to not assigning any off-chain equity certificates, so the participation of user A will be meaningless.
  • the off-chain equity certificate held by user A can be used to characterize his forecast Ability or prediction accuracy, that is, when more off-chain equity certificates are held or the represented equity is greater, it indicates that the user A has a stronger prediction ability or a higher prediction accuracy.
  • user A can also use off-chain equity credentials for other purposes.
  • some blockchain nodes in the blockchain can play the role of anchor points, and can exchange the off-chain equity certificates held by user A into equivalent smart asset certificates, such as real estate certificates and securities certificates issued by the anchor point. , Stock certificates, deposit certificates, etc., this manual does not limit this.
  • the off-chain equity certificate When the off-chain equity certificate is used to characterize the user's predictive ability, only the off-chain equity certificate is allowed to be converted into a smart asset certificate, and the smart asset certificate is restricted to be exchanged to an off-chain equity certificate; of course, if there is also a
  • the first type of off-chain equity vouchers for prediction capabilities and the second type of off-chain equity vouchers that are not used to characterize the user's prediction capabilities can limit the conversion of smart asset vouchers to the first type of off-chain equity vouchers and allow off-chain equity vouchers Converted to the second type of off-chain equity certificate.
  • the off-chain equity certificates S1 to S4 may not be allocated to user A for various reasons. For example, institution C holds Some off-chain equity certificates are insufficient to respond to distribution instructions 1 to 4 (ie, the off-chain equity certificates held by Institution C are less / less than the off-chain equity certificates S1 to S4) or other reasons.
  • institution C will freeze at least part of the off-chain equity vouchers held, for example, it can freeze
  • the oracle node 23 can transfer the corresponding frozen result into the blockchain
  • the above-mentioned smart contract can be executed after scanning the frozen result as shown in Figure 3 or The processing logic shown in FIG. 4 may not be executed otherwise.
  • the oracle node 23 can transfer the allocation of the off-chain equity certificates S1 to S4 by the institution C to the blockchain, and the device 22 can call the off-chain equity certificates Assigned smart contract.
  • the smart contract can send a mandatory allocation instruction to the above-mentioned management party, so that the management party can unfreeze the frozen off-chain equity certificate and assign the corresponding off-chain equity certificate to user A. This process is not subject to the organization. C bound.
  • FIG. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of a device according to an exemplary embodiment. Please refer to FIG. 5.
  • the device includes a processor 502, an internal bus 504, a network interface 506, a memory 508, and a non-volatile memory 510.
  • the processor 502 reads the corresponding computer program from the non-volatile memory 510 into the memory 508 and then runs it to form an event prediction device on a logical level.
  • one or more embodiments of this specification do not exclude other implementations, such as a logic device or a combination of software and hardware, etc. That is to say, the execution body of the following processing flow is not limited to each A logic unit can also be a hardware or logic device.
  • the event prediction device is applied to a blockchain node; the device may include:
  • the obtaining unit 61 obtains a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event published on the blockchain, and an input time of the prediction result is earlier than an occurrence time of an actual result of the specified event;
  • the comparison unit 62 publishes a corresponding comparison result to the blockchain by comparing the prediction result with the actual result
  • a first calling unit 63 calls a smart contract for asset allocation in the blockchain, where the smart contract is used to read the comparison result to send an allocation instruction to an off-chain object according to the comparison result.
  • the allocation instruction is used to instruct the off-chain object to allocate a first off-chain equity certificate to the participant.
  • the actual result is read from the blockchain by the smart contract, and the actual result is published on the blockchain by a oracle node in the blockchain;
  • the actual result is read from the blockchain by the smart contract, and the actual result is published by any blockchain node in the blockchain to the blockchain after consensus .
  • the specified event includes one or more sub-events
  • the prediction result is used to separately predict the results of the one or more sub-events
  • the smart contract is used to indicate that When the prediction result is correct for the result prediction of the one or more sub-events, the allocation instruction is sent to the off-chain object.
  • the designated event includes multiple sub-events; the size of the equity corresponding to the first off-chain equity certificate is positively related to the proportion of the sub-events accurately predicted by the prediction result in the multiple sub-events.
  • Optional also includes:
  • the determining unit 64 determines that the second off-chain equity certificate held by the participant is frozen as a guarantee certificate for guaranteeing the validity of the predicted result
  • the smart contract is used to send a deduction instruction to the manager of the guarantee voucher if the predicted result does not match the actual result, so as to release the participant's holding relationship to the guarantee voucher .
  • the size of the equity represented by the first off-chain equity certificate is positively related to the size of the equity represented by the security certificate.
  • the smart contract is used to determine that the prediction result corresponding to the participant is invalid when the participant does not have corresponding guarantee credentials.
  • the off-chain equity certificate includes at least one of the following: member points, coupons, exchange coupons, and discount coupons.
  • the calling conditions of the smart contract include: the third off-chain equity certificate held by the off-chain object is frozen, and the frozen off-chain equity certificate is sufficient to respond to the allocation instruction.
  • Optional also includes:
  • the second calling unit 65 calls a smart contract for distributing off-chain equity credentials, and the smart contract for distributing off-chain equity credentials does not assign the first off-chain equity credentials to the off-chain object
  • a mandatory allocation instruction is sent to the manager of the third off-chain equity certificate to obtain the first off-chain equity certificate from the frozen third-chain equity certificate and allocate it to the participants.
  • the system, device, module, or unit described in the foregoing embodiments may be specifically implemented by a computer chip or entity, or a product with a certain function.
  • a typical implementation device is a computer, and the specific form of the computer may be a personal computer, a laptop computer, a cellular phone, a camera phone, a smart phone, a personal digital assistant, a media player, a navigation device, an email sending and receiving device, and a game control Desk, tablet computer, wearable device, or a combination of any of these devices.
  • a computer includes one or more processors (CPUs), input / output interfaces, network interfaces, and memory.
  • processors CPUs
  • input / output interfaces output interfaces
  • network interfaces network interfaces
  • memory volatile and non-volatile memory
  • Memory may include non-persistent memory, random access memory (RAM), and / or non-volatile memory in computer-readable media, such as read-only memory (ROM) or flash memory (flash RAM). Memory is an example of a computer-readable medium.
  • RAM random access memory
  • ROM read-only memory
  • flash RAM flash memory
  • Computer-readable media includes both permanent and non-persistent, removable and non-removable media.
  • Information can be stored by any method or technology.
  • Information may be computer-readable instructions, data structures, modules of a program, or other data.
  • Examples of computer storage media include, but are not limited to, phase change memory (PRAM), static random access memory (SRAM), dynamic random access memory (DRAM), other types of random access memory (RAM), and read-only memory (ROM), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), flash memory or other memory technologies, read-only disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), digital versatile disc (DVD) or other optical storage, Magnetic tape cartridges, magnetic disk storage, quantum memory, graphene-based storage media, or other magnetic storage devices or any other non-transmission media can be used to store information that can be accessed by computing devices.
  • computer-readable media does not include temporary computer-readable media, such as modulated data signals and carrier waves.
  • first, second, third, etc. may be used to describe various information in one or more embodiments of the present specification, the information should not be limited to these terms. These terms are only used to distinguish the same type of information from each other.
  • first information may also be referred to as second information, and similarly, the second information may also be referred to as first information.
  • word “if” as used herein can be interpreted as “at” or "when” or "in response to determination”.

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Abstract

L'invention concerne un procédé et un appareil de prédiction d'événement, et un dispositif électronique, qui sont appliqués à un nœud de chaîne de blocs. Le procédé comprend les étapes consistant à : acquérir un résultat de prédiction entré par un participant pour un événement spécifié et libéré sur une chaîne de blocs, le moment d'entrée du résultat de prédiction étant antérieur au moment d'occurrence d'un résultat réel de l'événement spécifié (102) ; libérer un résultat de comparaison correspondant sur la chaîne de blocs par comparaison du résultat de prédiction avec le résultat réel (104) ; et appeler un contrat intelligent pour une attribution d'actif dans la chaîne de blocs, le contrat intelligent étant utilisé pour lire le résultat de comparaison de façon à envoyer une instruction d'attribution à un objet hors chaîne en fonction du résultat de comparaison, et l'instruction d'attribution étant utilisée pour ordonner à l'objet hors chaîne d'attribuer un premier certificat de valeur hors chaîne au participant (106).
PCT/CN2019/084132 2018-07-27 2019-04-24 Procédé et appareil de prédiction d'événement et dispositif électronique WO2020019785A1 (fr)

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