WO2020019783A1 - Procédé et appareil de prédiction d'événement et dispositif électronique - Google Patents

Procédé et appareil de prédiction d'événement et dispositif électronique Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2020019783A1
WO2020019783A1 PCT/CN2019/084116 CN2019084116W WO2020019783A1 WO 2020019783 A1 WO2020019783 A1 WO 2020019783A1 CN 2019084116 W CN2019084116 W CN 2019084116W WO 2020019783 A1 WO2020019783 A1 WO 2020019783A1
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result
prediction
blockchain
participant
smart
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PCT/CN2019/084116
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English (en)
Chinese (zh)
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祁鹏涛
陆旭明
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阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G06Q40/04—Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange

Definitions

  • One or more embodiments of the present specification relate to the field of blockchain technology, and in particular, to an event prediction method and device, and an electronic device.
  • event prediction can be performed in a variety of ways, such as predictive analysis based on historical data, and then predictive analysis based on a prediction model trained on samples. Due to the differences in the prediction data used, the prediction method used, and the prediction environment, the different participants often get different prediction results when they participate in the prediction of the results for the same event, even with large deviations. .
  • one or more embodiments of the present specification provide an event prediction method and device, and an electronic device.
  • an event prediction method is proposed, which is applied to a blockchain node; the method includes:
  • the smart contract Invoking a smart contract for evaluating a prediction situation, the smart contract is used to read the prediction result and the actual result, and compare the prediction result with the actual result to compare the first result according to the comparison result Smart asset credentials are assigned to the parties.
  • an event prediction device which is applied to a blockchain node; the device includes:
  • the release determination unit determines that the prediction result input by the participant for a specified event is released to the blockchain, and the input time of the prediction result is earlier than the occurrence time of the actual result of the specified event;
  • the contract invoking unit invokes a smart contract for evaluating a prediction situation, and the smart contract is used to read the prediction result and the actual result, and compare the prediction result with the actual result to compare the prediction result with the actual result.
  • the first smart asset credential is assigned to the participant.
  • an electronic device including:
  • Memory for storing processor-executable instructions
  • the processor executes the executable instruction to implement the event prediction method according to any one of the foregoing embodiments.
  • FIG. 1 is a flowchart of an event prediction method according to an exemplary embodiment.
  • FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of predicting an event result according to an exemplary embodiment.
  • FIG. 3 is a flowchart of functional logic implemented by a smart contract according to an exemplary embodiment.
  • FIG. 4 is a flowchart of functional logic implemented by another smart contract according to an exemplary embodiment.
  • FIG. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of a device according to an exemplary embodiment.
  • FIG. 6 is a block diagram of an event prediction apparatus according to an exemplary embodiment.
  • the steps of the corresponding method are not necessarily performed in the order shown and described in this specification.
  • the method may include more or fewer steps than described in this specification.
  • a single step described in this specification may be divided into multiple steps for description in other embodiments; and multiple steps described in this specification may be combined into a single step for other embodiments. description.
  • FIG. 1 is a flowchart of an event prediction method according to an exemplary embodiment. As shown in Figure 1, the method is applied to a blockchain node and can include the following steps:
  • Step 102 It is determined that a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event is published to a blockchain, and an input time of the prediction result is earlier than an occurrence time of an actual result of the specified event.
  • the transaction can be used to publish the prediction results entered by the participants on the blockchain, becoming one of the distributed databases in the blockchain. Data.
  • a narrow transaction refers to a value transfer issued by a user to the blockchain; for example, in a traditional Bitcoin blockchain network, a transaction can be a transfer initiated by a user in the blockchain.
  • the generalized transaction refers to a piece of business data with business intent issued by the user to the blockchain; for example, the operator can build an alliance chain based on actual business needs, and rely on the alliance chain to deploy other types that are not related to value transfer.
  • Online business (such as event forecasting, renting business, vehicle dispatching business, insurance claims business, credit service, medical service, etc.), and in this type of alliance chain, the transaction can be a transaction issued by the user in the alliance chain.
  • Intent business message or business request Transactions in this description should be interpreted as transactions in a broad sense.
  • the blockchain uses a distributed database, the prediction results published on the blockchain cannot be tampered with, and the prediction results can be ensured to be true and reliable.
  • the prediction result input by the participant can be published to the blockchain by the aforementioned blockchain node.
  • the prediction result input by the participant may be published to the blockchain by other blockchain nodes different from the above-mentioned blockchain node, and the above-mentioned blockchain node may obtain information related to the prediction result, and
  • the prediction result (or a hash value of the prediction result) can be recorded in a local database (ie, a blockchain ledger) maintained by the blockchain node.
  • one or more participants can predict the same event, so that there can be prediction results corresponding to each participant on the blockchain; wherein each participant can have a corresponding unique identifier, such that The prediction results released by each participant can be associated with its unique identification, so as to effectively distinguish the various prediction results released on the blockchain.
  • the designated event is any event that is indicated to be determined to require result prediction, such as traffic conditions at an intersection, rice harvest in a certain area, typhoon formation time in a certain sea area, etc., which is not described in this specification. limit.
  • the input time of the prediction result should be earlier than the occurrence time of the actual result of the specified event.
  • the input time can be recorded in the transaction that contains the prediction result in the blockchain, or the transaction can be created directly.
  • the time is used as the input time.
  • the specified event is an instantaneous event, that is, the time period from the start time to the end time of the specified event is short, which is not enough for the participant to input the prediction result within the time period, and the participant The predicted result can be entered at any time before the actual result occurs.
  • the specified event is a non-transient event, that is, the participant can input the prediction result in a time period between the start time and the end time of the specified event, which can limit the participant in the specified event. Enter the prediction result after the start time of.
  • Step 104 Invoking a smart contract for evaluating a prediction situation, the smart contract is used to read the prediction result and the actual result, and compare the prediction result with the actual result, according to the comparison result. Assigning a first smart asset credential to the participant.
  • processing logic for comparing predicted results with actual results and processing logic for assigning smart asset credentials based on the comparison results can be written in the smart contract in advance, so that the smart contract can use the read prediction results and The actual result automatically determines whether the first smart asset voucher needs to be allocated to the corresponding participants; among them, since the processing logic on the smart contract is public content, and the entire processing process is automatically completed by the smart contract, there is no manual intervention, so whether it is The comparison of predicted results with actual results or the distribution of smart asset credentials can ensure objectivity and fairness.
  • the prediction result matches the actual result, it indicates that the participant providing the prediction result has a certain accuracy for the result prediction of the specified event. Then, by allocating the first smart asset voucher to the participants, the amount of smart asset vouchers held by each participant can be controlled, thereby achieving a marking effect for each participant to a certain extent: the more participants hold smart asset credentials The stronger the ability to predict the outcome of an event, therefore, in the subsequent event prediction process, it is possible to quickly select the participants with strong predictive ability to obtain potentially more accurate prediction results from these participants.
  • the smart asset voucher is used to characterize certain rights and interests, so as to realize the incentive for the participant to accurately predict the specified event, which helps the participant to continue to participate in the prediction of subsequent events, thereby achieving a virtuous circle.
  • the preset operation can include publishing transactions, initiating consensus (such as initiating based on the PBFT practical Byzantine fault tolerance algorithm), etc., and can allocate a certain amount to each blockchain node.
  • Intelligent asset voucher to facilitate the preset operation to complete smoothly as soon as possible.
  • participants can use the blockchain nodes that play the anchor role on the blockchain to exchange the smart asset certificates they hold for equivalent off-chain equity certificates, such as membership points in the membership system, Coupons, etc. on trading platforms are not limited in this manual.
  • the above-mentioned smart contract may be called under the driving of a transaction or another smart contract to trigger it to read the above-mentioned prediction result and actual result from the blockchain, thereby further implementing the events of this specification. Forecast scenario.
  • the actual result of the specified event can be published by the Oracle node in the blockchain to the blockchain. Since the data provided by the Oracle node is considered absolutely reliable, it can be guaranteed The accuracy of this actual result.
  • the actual result of the designated event may be published by any blockchain node in the blockchain to the blockchain after consensus.
  • any blockchain node may A consensus is initiated in the blockchain to confirm the actual results provided by any one of the blockchain nodes. When the actual result passes the consensus of each blockchain node, it shows that the actual result has sufficient accuracy and can be verified by It should be used for comparison with predicted results.
  • the specified event includes one or more sub-events
  • the prediction result is used to perform result prediction on the one or more sub-events; wherein the smart contract is used to predict
  • the first smart asset credential is allocated to the participant.
  • the prediction result is determined by the smart contract to match the actual result of the specified event.
  • the designated event includes multiple sub-events; when the first smart asset certificate is allocated to the participant, the size of the equity represented by the first smart asset certificate is positively related to the The proportion of the child events accurately predicted by the prediction result among the multiple child events.
  • the size of the equity represented by the first smart asset certificate may be Set the maximum value; when the prediction result is completely different from the actual result, that is, the proportion of the sub-events accurately predicted by the prediction result in the multiple sub-events is 0%, the equity represented by the first smart asset certificate
  • the size can be a preset minimum value (0 or another preset value).
  • the size of the equity represented by the first smart asset certificate can be linearly changed. For example, when the proportion is 30%, the equity is 30% of the preset maximum value. For example, when the proportion is 80%, the equity The size is 80% of the preset maximum, etc.
  • the size of the equity represented by the first smart asset certificate can be changed non-linearly, for example, when the proportion is 30%, the equity is 10% of the preset maximum value, and for example, when the proportion is 80% , The equity size is 50% of the preset maximum value, for example, when the proportion is 95%, the equity size is 80% of the preset maximum value.
  • the specified event includes multiple sub-events.
  • the prediction result is not completely consistent with the actual result, regardless of the proportion of the sub-events accurately predicted by the prediction result among the multiple sub-events, It can be determined that the two do not match, so that no smart asset credentials are assigned to the participants.
  • the second smart asset voucher held by the participant is frozen as a voucher for guaranteeing the validity of the predicted result; wherein the smart contract is used for If the prediction result does not match the actual result, the holding relationship of the participant to the guarantee certificate is released.
  • the guarantee certificate is used to guarantee the forecast results provided by the participant, which can set a certain threshold for the participant to avoid random participation and affect the Accurate prediction of the above specified events.
  • the equity represented by the second smart asset voucher when the equity represented by the second smart asset voucher is greater, it indicates that the participant is more confident in the prediction result provided by the participant, and when the prediction result matches the actual result, it indicates to a certain extent that the participant is indeed With strong forecasting capabilities, by setting the size of the equity represented by the first smart asset voucher to be positively correlated with the size of the equity represented by the second smart asset voucher, the forecasting capabilities of the corresponding participants can be performed More accurate labeling and greater incentives for corresponding parties.
  • the participant even if the participant does not freeze to form the guarantee certificate, he can still participate in the prediction of the result of the specified event, and obtain the above-mentioned first smart asset certificate if the predicted result matches the actual result.
  • the prediction result entered by the participant is determined to be invalid, so that it cannot really participate in the prediction of the result of the specified event; or, between the predicted result and the actual result.
  • the first smart asset voucher can be assigned to the participant, the first smart asset voucher cannot represent any equity equivalent to no smart asset voucher being allocated, making the participation of the party meaningless.
  • FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of predicting an event result according to an exemplary embodiment. As shown in FIG. 2, it is assumed that the user A wishes to participate in the prediction of the result for the event B, and the user A can input the prediction result through the mobile phone 21 with the client installed.
  • the prediction result can be obtained by user A in any way, for example, by user A performing big data analysis on historical data through a server not shown in FIG. 2, or for example, by user A based on his own experience, which is not described in this specification. Limitation.
  • the device 22 is configured as a blockchain node in the blockchain, and the device 22 can receive the prediction result sent by the mobile phone 21; based on the logged-in account on the client running the mobile phone 21, the prediction result can be determined as coming from the user A.
  • the mobile phone 21 may also send the above prediction results to other blockchain nodes in the blockchain.
  • the processing process of these blockchain nodes is similar to that of the device 22, and reference may be made to the description of the device 22 in this specification.
  • other users can also predict the result of Event B and send it to device 22 or other blockchain nodes through their mobile phones or other electronic devices.
  • the processing process of these users is similar to that of User A. You can refer to this manual for details. A description of user A.
  • the device 22 can agree on the prediction result input by the user A in the blockchain, so that the prediction result is released to the blockchain after passing the consensus to be recorded in the blockchain's distributed database, that is, "on-chain” .
  • This specification does not limit the type of consensus algorithm used; for example, when the block chain where the device 22 is located is an alliance chain or a public chain, the device 22 can be based on algorithms such as PBFT (Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance).
  • Other blockchain nodes initiate consensus, and after the consensus is passed, the prediction result is published to the blockchain, so that it is recorded in the blockchain's distributed database; for another example, when the blockchain where device 22 is located is In the public chain, the device 22 can compete with other blockchain nodes for bookkeeping rights based on the POW (Proof of Work, Proof of Work) algorithm, POS (Proof of Stake, Proof of Stake) algorithm, or other algorithms, and obtain the bookkeeping by
  • POW Proof of Work, Proof of Work
  • POS Proof of Stake, Proof of Stake
  • the right blockchain node records transaction data into the corresponding block, and when the transaction containing the prediction result input by user A is recorded, the prediction result can be recorded in the blockchain's distributed database.
  • the blockchain can include a predictor node 23, which can obtain data off-chain (that is, outside the blockchain) and transfer the data off-chain into the blockchain.
  • the oracle node 23 can obtain the actual result of event B from the off-chain, and publish the actual result to the blockchain for recording in the blockchain's distributed database, that is, "on-chain”.
  • a smart contract can be created on the blockchain in advance.
  • a function logic is defined for determining the matching between the prediction result and the actual result.
  • the function logic can automatically compare the prediction result input by the user A with the actual result of the event B passed by the oracle node 23, so that the comparison result is objective. ,accurate.
  • a smart contract can be called by a transaction on the blockchain or other smart contracts to trigger its automatic implementation of related functional logic, such as the functional logic described above for determining the matching between predicted results and actual results. Wait.
  • the device 22 may issue a transaction in the blockchain or call other smart contracts to implement the above-mentioned smart contract; or, it may call the above-mentioned smart contract by other blockchain nodes, and this specification does not limit this.
  • the above-mentioned smart contract can be run on the device 22 to automatically implement the above-mentioned functional logic.
  • FIG. 3 is a flowchart of functional logic implemented by a smart contract according to an exemplary embodiment. As shown in FIG. 3, the functional logic may include the following steps:
  • Step 302 Obtain the prediction result of user A from the blockchain.
  • the prediction result of user A is recorded in a transaction on the blockchain, and the transaction can be marked as related to event B, so that the smart contract can find the transaction from the blockchain accordingly. And obtain the prediction result of user A.
  • the smart contract can obtain the prediction result input by user A by scanning the transaction record of a specific address or the transaction record of a specific serial number.
  • the prediction results input by other users are also recorded on the blockchain, and the smart contract can obtain these prediction results in a similar manner, which will not be described one by one here.
  • Step 304 Obtain actual results from the blockchain.
  • the actual result passed by the oracle 23 is recorded in a transaction on the blockchain, and the transaction can be marked as related to event B, so that the smart contract can be retrieved from the blockchain accordingly. Find the transaction and get the actual result.
  • the smart contract can obtain the actual result by scanning the transaction record of a specific address or the transaction record of a specific serial number.
  • Step 306 Compare the prediction result of the user A with the actual result of the event B, and determine whether the prediction result is consistent with the actual result.
  • event B is the only event and does not include multiple sub-events, so that there are only two cases of the predicted result and the actual result: the result is consistent or the result is not consistent.
  • the predicted results should have the same data structure as the actual results to facilitate comparison operations. For example, suppose event B is the traffic condition of a certain intersection during the rush hour.
  • step 308A when the prediction result is consistent with the actual result, it is determined whether a guarantee certificate exists for the user A.
  • step 310A when there is a security certificate, the smart asset certificate S1 is allocated to the user A.
  • step 310B when there is no guarantee certificate, the smart asset certificate S2 is allocated to the user A.
  • the user A may configure a corresponding guarantee credential on the prediction result input by the user A, so as to guarantee the validity of the prediction result.
  • user A may have a corresponding account a in the blockchain and hold a certain amount of smart asset vouchers through the account a. At least a part of the smart asset vouchers in the account a may be frozen to serve as the aforementioned guarantee.
  • Vouchers for example, the account a can temporarily transfer at least a part of the smart asset voucher to a dedicated voucher freezing account, or can add a frozen flag to the at least a part of the smart asset voucher in the account a, which is not described in this specification Limitation.
  • the guarantee certificate is not necessary: if there is a guarantee certificate, the smart asset certificate S1 can be assigned to the user A, and if there is no guarantee certificate, the smart asset certificate S2 can be assigned to the user A;
  • the tokenized interest should be greater than the tokenized interest in the smart asset voucher S2 to indicate that user A provides incentives for guarantee vouchers and that user A holds more smart asset vouchers, thereby indicating that the user A's forecasting ability is stronger or more predictable. Increased accuracy.
  • the equity represented by the smart asset vouchers S1 and S2 can be fixed values, or the equity represented by the smart asset vouchers S1 and S2 can be positively correlated with the equity represented by the security vouchers, that is, the greater the equity represented by the security vouchers The more and more equity represented by the smart asset vouchers S1 and S2, the greater / more.
  • a certain threshold may be set for participating user B's result prediction, such as requiring user A to provide a guarantee certificate. Therefore, for the case where there is a guarantee certificate, the smart asset certificate S1 can be assigned to the user A, and the smart asset certificate S1 is used to characterize a certain interest; and when the guarantee certificate does not exist, the smart asset certificate S2 assigned to the user A Failure to characterize any equity is equivalent to not assigning any smart asset credentials, so user A's participation will be meaningless.
  • step 308B when the prediction result is inconsistent with the actual result, it is determined whether a guarantee certificate exists for the user A.
  • Step 310C When a security certificate exists, the security certificate is deducted.
  • the user A may terminate the holding of the smart asset certificate corresponding to the guarantee certificate by deducting the guarantee certificate. Then the smart asset credentials held by user A decrease to indicate that the prediction ability of user A is weakened or the prediction accuracy is reduced.
  • FIG. 4 is a flowchart of functional logic implemented by another smart contract according to an exemplary embodiment. As shown in FIG. 4, the functional logic may include the following steps:
  • Step 402 Obtain the prediction result of user A from the blockchain.
  • Step 404 Obtain actual results from the blockchain.
  • steps 402 to 404 may refer to steps 302 to 304 shown in FIG. 3, and details are not described herein again.
  • Step 406 Compare the prediction result of the user A with the actual result of the event B, and determine whether the prediction result is completely consistent with the actual result.
  • the event B includes multiple sub-events. If the prediction result of the user A accurately predicts all the sub-events, the prediction result is completely consistent with the actual result; and if the user A only accurately predicts part of the sub-events Result, or user A has only implemented predictions for some sub-events, then the prediction results may be partially consistent with the actual results; of course, it is possible that user A's predictions for all sub-events are incorrect, and the prediction results and the actual results are completely Not consistent.
  • the predicted result and the actual result should have the same data structure, so as to facilitate the comparison operation.
  • event B is the traffic condition of an intersection during the commute rush hour.
  • the predicted results and actual results can include the fields m1 and m2 respectively.
  • the m1 field represents the traffic conditions during the morning rush hour and m2 represents the traffic conditions during the evening rush hour .
  • step 408A when the prediction result is completely consistent with the actual result, it is determined whether the user A has a guarantee certificate.
  • step 410A when there is a security certificate, the smart asset certificate S1 is allocated to the user A.
  • Step 410B when there is no guarantee certificate, the smart asset certificate S2 is allocated to the user A.
  • step 408A, step 410A, and step 410B may refer to step 308A, step 310A, and step 310B shown in FIG. 3, and details are not described herein again.
  • Step 408B when the prediction result is not completely consistent with the actual result, determine whether the prediction result is partially consistent with the actual result.
  • Step 410C when the predicted result is completely inconsistent with the actual result, if there is a guarantee certificate, the guarantee certificate is deducted.
  • the user A may configure a corresponding guarantee credential for the prediction result input by the user A to guarantee the validity of the prediction result. Then, when the prediction result is completely inconsistent with the actual result, that is, User A's prediction of the result of Event B is inaccurate or the prediction fails, user A can deduct the security certificate by holding the security asset certificate corresponding to the security certificate, then User A The number of smart asset credentials held is reduced to indicate that the prediction ability of the user A is weakened or the prediction accuracy is reduced.
  • step 410D when the prediction result is consistent with the actual result, it is determined whether a guarantee certificate exists for the user A.
  • step 412A when there is a security certificate, the smart asset certificate S3 is allocated to the user A.
  • Step 412B when there is no guarantee certificate, the smart asset certificate S4 is allocated to the user A.
  • the prediction result when the prediction result is consistent with the actual result, it indicates that the user A has a certain degree of prediction ability. Therefore, for the labeling of this part of the prediction ability, and for the user A Incentives can be assigned to certain smart asset credentials to user A.
  • the guarantee certificate is not necessary: if there is a guarantee certificate, the smart asset certificate S3 can be assigned to the user A, and if there is no guarantee certificate, the smart asset certificate S4 can be assigned to the user A; In terms of size: S1> S3> S4, S1> S2> S4.
  • the rights and interests represented by the smart asset vouchers S1 and S3 may be corresponding fixed values, or the rights and interests represented by the smart asset vouchers S1 and S3 may be respectively positively related to the rights and interests represented by the security vouchers, that is, guarantees.
  • a certain threshold may be set for participating user B's result prediction, such as requiring user A to provide a guarantee certificate. Therefore, for the case where there is a guarantee certificate, the smart asset certificate S3 can be allocated to the user A, and the smart asset certificate S3 is used to represent a certain interest; and when the guarantee certificate does not exist, the smart asset certificate S4 allocated to the user A Failure to characterize any equity is equivalent to not assigning any smart asset credentials, so user A's participation will be meaningless.
  • the smart asset voucher held by user A can be used to characterize its predictive ability or Prediction accuracy, that is, when more smart asset vouchers are held or the represented equity is greater, it indicates that the user A has a stronger prediction ability or a higher prediction accuracy.
  • user A can also use smart asset credentials for other purposes.
  • some blockchain nodes in the blockchain can play the role of anchor points, and the smart asset certificate held by user A can be exchanged for equivalent off-chain equity certificates, such as membership points, coupons, etc. This is not restricted.
  • FIG. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of a device according to an exemplary embodiment. Please refer to FIG. 5.
  • the device includes a processor 502, an internal bus 504, a network interface 506, a memory 508, and a non-volatile memory 510.
  • the processor 502 reads the corresponding computer program from the non-volatile memory 510 into the memory 508 and then runs it to form an event prediction device on a logical level.
  • one or more embodiments of this specification do not exclude other implementations, such as a logic device or a combination of software and hardware, etc. That is to say, the execution body of the following processing flow is not limited to each A logic unit can also be a hardware or logic device.
  • the event prediction device may be applied to a blockchain node; the device includes:
  • the release determination unit 61 determines that a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event is released to the blockchain, and an input time of the prediction result is earlier than an occurrence time of an actual result of the specified event;
  • the contract invoking unit 62 invokes a smart contract for evaluating a prediction situation, and the smart contract is used to read the prediction result and the actual result, and compare the prediction result with the actual result to The comparison results allocate the first smart asset credential to the participant.
  • the actual result is read from the blockchain by the smart contract, and the actual result is published on the blockchain by a oracle node in the blockchain;
  • the actual result is read from the blockchain by the smart contract, and the actual result is published by any blockchain node in the blockchain to the blockchain after consensus .
  • the specified event includes one or more sub-events
  • the prediction result is used to perform result prediction on the one or more sub-events
  • the smart contract is used to predict
  • the result predictions of one or more sub-events are all correct, the first smart asset credential is allocated to the participant.
  • the designated event includes multiple sub-events; when the first smart asset certificate is allocated to the participant, the size of the equity represented by the first smart asset certificate is positively related to the predicted result The proportion of accurately predicted sub-events among the plurality of sub-events.
  • Optional also includes:
  • the freezing determination unit 63 determines that the second smart asset certificate held by the participant is frozen as a guarantee certificate for guaranteeing the validity of the predicted result
  • the smart contract is used to release the participant's holding relationship to the guarantee certificate if the predicted result does not match the actual result.
  • the size of the equity represented by the first smart asset certificate is positively correlated with the size of the equity represented by the second smart asset certificate.
  • the smart contract is used to determine that the prediction result corresponding to the participant is invalid when the participant does not have corresponding guarantee credentials.
  • Optional also includes:
  • the voucher conversion unit 64 anchors the smart asset voucher held by the participant to convert it into an equivalent off-chain equity voucher.
  • the system, device, module, or unit described in the foregoing embodiments may be specifically implemented by a computer chip or entity, or a product with a certain function.
  • a typical implementation device is a computer, and the specific form of the computer may be a personal computer, a laptop computer, a cellular phone, a camera phone, a smart phone, a personal digital assistant, a media player, a navigation device, an email sending and receiving device, and a game control Desk, tablet computer, wearable device, or a combination of any of these devices.
  • a computer includes one or more processors (CPUs), input / output interfaces, network interfaces, and memory.
  • processors CPUs
  • input / output interfaces output interfaces
  • network interfaces network interfaces
  • memory volatile and non-volatile memory
  • Memory may include non-persistent memory, random access memory (RAM), and / or non-volatile memory in computer-readable media, such as read-only memory (ROM) or flash memory (flash RAM). Memory is an example of a computer-readable medium.
  • RAM random access memory
  • ROM read-only memory
  • flash RAM flash memory
  • Computer-readable media includes both permanent and non-persistent, removable and non-removable media.
  • Information can be stored by any method or technology.
  • Information may be computer-readable instructions, data structures, modules of a program, or other data.
  • Examples of computer storage media include, but are not limited to, phase change memory (PRAM), static random access memory (SRAM), dynamic random access memory (DRAM), other types of random access memory (RAM), and read-only memory (ROM), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), flash memory or other memory technologies, read-only disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), digital versatile disc (DVD) or other optical storage, Magnetic tape cartridges, magnetic disk storage, quantum memory, graphene-based storage media, or other magnetic storage devices or any other non-transmission media can be used to store information that can be accessed by computing devices.
  • computer-readable media does not include temporary computer-readable media, such as modulated data signals and carrier waves.
  • first, second, third, etc. may be used to describe various information in one or more embodiments of the present specification, the information should not be limited to these terms. These terms are only used to distinguish the same type of information from each other.
  • first information may also be referred to as second information, and similarly, the second information may also be referred to as first information.
  • word “if” as used herein can be interpreted as “at” or "when” or "in response to determination”.

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Abstract

L'invention concerne un procédé et un appareil de prédiction d'événements, et un dispositif électronique, appliqué à un nœud de chaîne de blocs. Le procédé consiste à : déterminer qu'un résultat de prédiction entré par un participant pour un événement désigné est émis vers une chaîne de blocs, le moment d'entrée du résultat de prédiction étant antérieur au moment où se produit le résultat réel de l'événement désigné (102) ; et appeler un contrat intelligent pour évaluer une situation de prédiction, le contrat intelligent étant utilisé pour lire le résultat de prédiction et le résultat réel, et comparer le résultat de prédiction avec le résultat réel, pour attribuer un premier document d'actif intelligent au participant selon le résultat de comparaison (104).
PCT/CN2019/084116 2018-07-27 2019-04-24 Procédé et appareil de prédiction d'événement et dispositif électronique WO2020019783A1 (fr)

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CN109146147A (zh) * 2018-07-27 2019-01-04 阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司 事件预测方法及装置、电子设备
CN109146146A (zh) * 2018-07-27 2019-01-04 阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司 事件预测方法及装置、电子设备
CN111130875B (zh) * 2019-12-20 2022-09-30 度小满科技(北京)有限公司 一种区块链的共识方法、装置、设备及存储介质
CN110796399B (zh) * 2020-01-03 2020-05-26 支付宝(杭州)信息技术有限公司 基于区块链的资源分配方法以及装置
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