WO2018069989A1

WO2018069989A1 - Data processing device, program, and recording medium for estimating time or fuel consumption amount required for sailing ship

Info

Publication number: WO2018069989A1
Application number: PCT/JP2016/080202
Authority: WO
Inventors: 領角田; 芳郎山下; 川口　浩; 和哉高野; 秀明片岡
Original assignee: 日本郵船株式会社
Priority date: 2016-10-12
Filing date: 2016-10-12
Publication date: 2018-04-19
Also published as: JP6281022B1; FI20195372A1; JPWO2018069989A1; SG11201903246XA

Abstract

According to the present invention, in each of a plurality of meteorological/hydrographic environments, a performance data acquisition unit 1111 acquires performance data representing a relationship between a sailing speed and a fuel consumption amount per unit time, when a ship sails in the environment. A meteorological/hydrographic data acquisition unit 1113 acquires meteorological/hydrographic data representing the meteorological and hydrographic conditions of each of a plurality of seas in each of a plurality of past periods. A calculation unit 114 uses the performance data and the meteorological/hydrographic data to calculate a time and a fuel consumption amount required for the sailing of a ship that sails along a designated sailing route so as to achieve a designated sailing speed or a fuel consumption amount per unit time by taking each of a plurality of past times as a departure time. A statistical processing unit 115 estimates a probability distribution of a population having, as a sample, the time or fuel consumption amount calculated by the calculation unit 114.

Description

Data processing apparatus, program, and recording medium for estimating time or fuel consumption required for navigation of ship

The present invention relates to a technique for estimating the time or fuel consumption required for navigating a ship.

In the navigation of a ship, the time required for navigation is an important factor that determines whether or not the destination port can be reached by the set scheduled arrival time. In addition, the fuel consumption required for navigation is an important factor that greatly affects the cost required for navigation. When the navigation speed is increased in order to reduce the time required for navigation, the fuel consumption required for navigation generally increases.

The time and fuel consumption required for navigating a ship depend on the performance of each ship, the weight of the load when navigating, etc., as well as the meteorological environment that the ship encounters while navigating. The meteorological environment that affects the time and fuel consumption required to navigate the ship is a combination of wind direction, wind speed, wave direction, wave height, wave period, tide direction, tide speed, and the like.

A technology has been proposed that searches for the optimum route from the viewpoint of the time required for navigation and the amount of fuel consumption in consideration of the meteorological environment that ships encounter while navigating. For example, Patent Document 1 proposes a system that calculates an optimum route in a target sea area using forecast data of weather conditions in the target sea area. The system described in Patent Document 1 calculates an optimum route using measurement data indicating a weather state measured by each of a plurality of ships navigating the target sea area in addition to forecast data.

JP 2014-013145 A

As described above, the time and fuel consumption required for navigating a ship depend on the meteorological environment that the ship encounters when navigating. However, future weather and sea conditions cannot be predicted accurately. In addition, the accuracy of the prediction decreases as the time of the meteorological state predicted increases from the current time. Therefore, the time and fuel consumption required for navigating the ship cannot be accurately estimated.

The system described in Patent Document 1 uses only the forecast data by using the meteorological sea state measurement data actually measured by the ship currently navigating the target sea area in addition to the weather sea state forecast data. Compare and predict future weather and sea conditions with higher accuracy. However, the measurement data shows the current weather and sea conditions, not the future weather and sea conditions. Therefore, the system described in Patent Document 1 cannot solve the above-described problem that the accuracy of prediction decreases as the weather season to be predicted deviates from the current time.

In view of the above circumstances, the present invention provides means that makes it possible to reasonably estimate the time or fuel consumption required to navigate a ship that is influenced by weather conditions that are difficult to predict.

In order to solve the above-mentioned problem, the present invention relates to each of a plurality of meteorological environments, and a first variable correlated with a navigation speed and a fuel consumption per unit time when a ship navigates in the environment. A performance data acquisition unit that acquires performance data indicating a relationship with the correlated second variable, and for each of a plurality of past periods, meteorological sea state data indicating each weather sea state of one or more sea areas at the time A meteorological sea state data acquisition unit to acquire, and a variable data acquisition unit to acquire variable data indicating a specified value related to the first variable when the ship navigates a route that passes through the one or more sea areas; Using the performance data and the meteorological sea state data, variable data obtained by the variable data acquisition unit by the variable data acquisition unit indicating the route of the ship with each time as a departure time is indicated for each of a plurality of past times. A value that is calculated by the calculation unit for each of a plurality of past times, and a calculation unit that calculates a value related to the second variable or a value that indicates fuel consumption required for the navigation when navigating to bring a value A data processing device including a statistical processing unit that performs statistical processing is provided as a first aspect.

In the data processing device according to the first aspect, the statistical processing unit estimates a probability distribution of a population using the values calculated by the calculation unit for each of a plurality of past times as samples. May be employed as the second aspect.

In the data processing device according to the second aspect, the ship is operated at a navigation speed corresponding to a value indicated by the variable data acquired by the variable data acquisition unit using the probability distribution estimated by the statistical processing unit. A configuration in which a fuel consumption specifying unit that specifies a sufficient fuel consumption with a predetermined probability for navigating the route may be employed as the third aspect.

Further, the present invention relates to each of a plurality of meteorological environments, and a second variable that correlates with a navigation speed and a fuel consumption per unit time when a ship navigates in the environment. A performance data acquisition unit that acquires performance data indicating a relationship with a variable, and meteorological sea state data that acquires, for each of a plurality of past periods, meteorological sea state data indicating each weather sea state of one or more sea areas in the relevant period An acquisition unit; a variable data acquisition unit that acquires variable data indicating a specified value related to the second variable when the ship navigates a route that passes through the one or more sea areas; the performance data; With respect to each of a plurality of past times using the weather and sea state data, the ship brings the value indicated by the variable data acquired by the variable data acquisition unit using the time as the departure time. A calculation unit that calculates a value related to the first variable when traveling or a value indicating a time required for the navigation, and a statistical processing unit that statistically processes the values calculated by the calculation unit for each of a plurality of past times A data processing apparatus comprising: is provided as a fourth aspect.

In the data processing device according to the fourth aspect, the statistical processing unit estimates a probability distribution of a population using the values calculated by the calculation unit for each of a plurality of past times as samples. May be employed as the fifth aspect.

In the data processing device according to the fifth aspect, using the probability distribution estimated by the statistical processing unit, time specification for specifying a time required for the ship to complete the navigation on the route with a predetermined probability A configuration of providing a part may be adopted as the sixth aspect.

In the data processing device according to the sixth aspect, the variable data acquisition unit acquires a plurality of variable data, and the statistical processing unit calculates each of the plurality of variable data by the calculation unit. Estimating a probability distribution of a population using values as samples, the time specifying unit uses the probability distribution estimated for each of the plurality of variable data by the statistical processing unit, and the ship navigates the route. A configuration in which the second variable for completion within a predetermined time with a predetermined probability is specified may be adopted as the seventh aspect.

In the data processing device according to the fifth aspect, a probability specifying unit that specifies a probability that the ship completes the navigation of the route within a predetermined time using the probability distribution estimated by the statistical processing unit. The configuration of comprising may be adopted as the eighth aspect.

In the data processing device according to the eighth aspect, the variable data acquisition unit acquires a plurality of variable data, and the statistical processing unit calculates each of the plurality of variable data by the calculation unit. Estimating a probability distribution of a population using values as samples, the probability specifying unit uses the probability distribution estimated for each of the plurality of variable data by the statistical processing unit, and the ship navigates the route. A configuration in which the second variable for completion within a predetermined time with a predetermined probability is specified may be adopted as the ninth aspect.

In the data processing apparatus according to any one of the first to ninth aspects, the performance data acquisition unit includes a load amount data acquisition unit that acquires load amount data indicating a load amount of the ship in the navigation along the route. For each of a plurality of loading amounts, obtain the performance data indicating the relationship between the first variable and the second variable when the ship carrying the load of the loading amount navigates, A configuration in which the calculation unit performs the calculation using the performance data related to the load amount indicated by the load amount data may be adopted as a tenth aspect.

Further, the present invention relates to a first variable that correlates with a navigation speed and a fuel consumption per unit time when a ship navigates in the environment in each of a plurality of meteorological sea environments. A process of acquiring performance data indicating a relationship with the second variable, a process of acquiring meteorological sea state data indicating each weather sea state of one or more sea areas in each of a plurality of past periods; When the ship navigates a route that passes through the one or more sea areas, using the process of obtaining variable data indicating a specified value related to the first variable, the performance data and the meteorological sea state data , With respect to each of a plurality of past times, the value related to the second variable when the ship navigates to bring the value indicated by the variable data to the route with the time as the departure time, or the value A process of calculating a value indicating the fuel consumption required for a row and a process of calculating a statistical value of a value related to the second variable or a value indicating the fuel consumption calculated for each of a plurality of past times. Is provided as an eleventh aspect.

Further, the present invention relates to a first variable that correlates with a navigation speed and a fuel consumption per unit time when a ship navigates in the environment in each of a plurality of meteorological sea environments. A process of acquiring performance data indicating a relationship with the second variable, a process of acquiring meteorological sea state data indicating each weather sea state of one or more sea areas in each of a plurality of past periods; When the ship navigates a route that passes through the one or more sea areas, using the process of obtaining variable data indicating a specified value related to the first variable, the performance data and the meteorological sea state data , With respect to each of a plurality of past times, the value related to the second variable when the ship navigates to bring the value indicated by the variable data to the route with the time as the departure time, or the value A process of calculating a value indicating the fuel consumption required for a row and a process of calculating a statistical value of a value related to the second variable or a value indicating the fuel consumption calculated for each of a plurality of past times. As a twelfth aspect, there is provided a computer-readable recording medium for continuously recording a program for the above purpose.

Further, the present invention relates to a first variable that correlates with a navigation speed and a fuel consumption per unit time when a ship navigates in the environment in each of a plurality of meteorological sea environments. A process of acquiring performance data indicating a relationship with the second variable, a process of acquiring meteorological sea state data indicating each weather sea state of one or more sea areas in each of a plurality of past periods; When the ship navigates a route that passes through the one or more sea areas, using the process of obtaining variable data indicating a specified value related to the second variable, the performance data and the meteorological sea state data , With respect to each of a plurality of past times, the value related to the first variable when the ship navigates to bring the value indicated by the variable data to the route using the time as the departure time, or the value A program for executing a process of calculating a value indicating a time required for a line and a process of calculating a value related to the first variable or a statistical value of a value indicating a time calculated for each of a plurality of past times Provided as a thirteenth aspect.

Further, the present invention relates to a first variable that correlates with a navigation speed and a fuel consumption per unit time when a ship navigates in the environment in each of a plurality of meteorological sea environments. A process of acquiring performance data indicating a relationship with the second variable, a process of acquiring meteorological sea state data indicating each weather sea state of one or more sea areas in each of a plurality of past periods; When the ship navigates a route that passes through the one or more sea areas, using the process of obtaining variable data indicating a specified value related to the second variable, the performance data and the meteorological sea state data , With respect to each of a plurality of past times, the value related to the first variable when the ship navigates to bring the value indicated by the variable data to the route using the time as the departure time, or the value A program for executing a process of calculating a value indicating a time required for a line and a process of calculating a value related to the first variable or a statistical value of a value indicating a time calculated for each of a plurality of past times A computer-readable recording medium for continuous recording is provided as a fourteenth aspect.

According to the present invention, based on the past weather conditions in the sea area where the ship navigates, the navigation speed or time required for navigation considering the influence of the weather condition on the navigation when the ship navigates in the sea area, or unit time The fuel consumption per hit or the statistical value of the fuel consumption is calculated. Therefore, it is possible to rationally estimate the time or fuel consumption required for navigating the ship, which is influenced by weather conditions that are difficult to predict, using the statistical values calculated by the present invention.

The figure which showed the structure of the system concerning one Embodiment. The figure which showed the structure of the computer used as hardware of the terminal device concerning one Embodiment. The figure which showed the structure of the computer 20 used as hardware of the server apparatus concerning one Embodiment. The figure which showed the function structure of the terminal device concerning one Embodiment. The figure which showed the structure of the performance data group which the terminal device concerning one Embodiment uses. The graph group which showed the relationship between the navigation speed which the performance data concerning one Embodiment shows, and the fuel consumption per unit time. The figure which showed the structure of the route table which the terminal device concerning one Embodiment uses. The figure which showed the structure of the weather sea state table group which the terminal device concerning one Embodiment uses. The figure which showed the screen which the terminal device concerning one Embodiment displays. The figure which showed the structure of the work table which the terminal device concerning one Embodiment uses. The figure which showed the structure of the sample table which the terminal device concerning one Embodiment uses. The figure which showed the flow of the process which the terminal device concerning one Embodiment performs. The figure which showed the flow of the process which the terminal device concerning one Embodiment performs. The figure which showed the screen which the terminal device concerning one Embodiment displays. The figure which showed the screen which the terminal device concerning one Embodiment displays. The figure which showed the screen which the terminal device concerning one modification displays. The figure which showed the structure of the navigation speed table which the terminal device concerning one modification uses. The figure which showed the structure of the fuel consumption table which the terminal device concerning one modification uses. The figure which showed the screen which the terminal device concerning one modification displays. The figure which showed the screen which the terminal device concerning one modification displays. The figure which showed the flow of the process which the terminal device concerning one modified example performs. The figure which showed the screen which the terminal device concerning one modification displays. The figure which showed the flow of the process which the terminal device concerning one modified example performs. The figure which showed the screen which the terminal device concerning one modification displays.

[Embodiment]
A system 1 according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described below. The system 1 is a system that provides a user with information on the time and fuel consumption required for navigating a ship. The system 1 is a system that estimates the time and fuel consumption required for a ship to follow a designated route based on past weather conditions and presents the estimated time and fuel consumption to the user. Hereinafter, processing for estimating the time and fuel consumption required for navigation performed in the system 1 is referred to as “estimation processing”.

FIG. 1 is a diagram showing the configuration of the system 1. The system 1 includes a terminal device 11 and a server device 12 that can perform data communication via a network 9. Although only one terminal device 11 is shown in FIG. 1, the number of terminal devices 11 changes arbitrarily according to the number of users of the system 1.

The hardware of the terminal device 11 is, for example, a computer for a general terminal device. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of the computer 10 used as hardware of the terminal device 11. The computer 10 includes a memory 101 that stores various data, a processor 102 that performs various data processing according to a program stored in the memory 101, a communication IF 103 that is an IF (Interface) that performs data communication with an external device, a user A display device 104 such as a liquid crystal display for displaying an image, and an operation device 105 such as a keyboard for receiving a user operation. Note that an external display device connected to the computer 10 may be used instead of or in addition to the display device 104 built in the computer 10. Further, instead of or in addition to the operation device 105 built in the computer 10, an external operation device connected to the computer 10 may be used.

The hardware of the server device 12 is, for example, a computer for a general server device. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of the computer 20 used as hardware of the server device 12. The computer 20 includes a memory 201 that stores various data, a processor 202 that performs various data processing according to a program stored in the memory 201, and a communication IF 203 that performs data communication with an external device.

FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating a functional configuration of the terminal device 11. That is, the computer 10 configuring the hardware of the terminal device 11 operates as a device including the components illustrated in FIG. 4 by executing data processing according to the program for the terminal device 11. Hereinafter, each component of the terminal device 11 illustrated in FIG. 4 will be described.

The acquisition unit 111 acquires data transmitted from an external device such as the server device 12 and data input by the user. When acquiring data transmitted from an external device, the acquisition unit 111 is realized by the communication IF 203. Further, when acquiring data input by the user, the acquisition unit 111 is realized by the operation device 105.

The storage unit 112 stores the data acquired by the acquisition unit 111. The storage unit 112 is realized by the memory 101.

The storage unit 112 includes a performance data group including performance data indicating the performance of each of the plurality of ships, a route table including route data indicating each of the plurality of routes, and past weather conditions in each of the plurality of sea areas. A meteorological sea state table group including the meteorological sea state data shown is stored.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing the structure of the performance data group. The performance data group is a collection of performance data regarding each of a plurality of ships. The performance data is data indicating the relationship between the navigation speed and the fuel consumption per unit time when the ship navigates. The relationship between the navigation speed and the fuel consumption per unit time when the ship navigates is as follows: the load capacity of the ship (in this embodiment, the load capacity is expressed as a ratio (%) to the maximum load capacity) Varies depending on the meteorological conditions encountered when sailing. Accordingly, performance data relating to individual ships is prepared for each of the various payloads and further prepared for each of the various meteorological sea conditions.

FIG. 6 is a graph group illustrating the relationship between the navigation speed indicated by the performance data relating to a certain load capacity of a certain ship and the fuel consumption per unit time. The horizontal axis of the graph group in FIG. 6 is the navigation speed (knot), and the vertical axis is the fuel consumption per unit time (ton / day).

FIG. 6 includes nine graphs corresponding to each of Beaufort (BF) 0 to 8. Beaufort is essentially a class of wind power, but in the present embodiment, it is used as an index indicating the calmness of the weather and sea environment that affects the navigation of the ship, and the smaller the number, the calmer the weather and sea conditions. For example, Beaufort 1 is represented by a combination of meteorological conditions such as a wind speed of 1.0 m / s, a wave height of 0.1 m, and a wave period of 1.2 seconds. It should be noted that the wind direction, wave direction, etc. are assumed to be directions from the front with respect to the traveling direction of the ship for any Beaufort. That is, each of the nine graphs included in FIG. 6 shows the relationship between the navigation speed and the fuel consumption per unit time when the ship navigates in a typical meteorological environment.

Although FIG. 6 shows the relationship between the navigation speed and fuel consumption per unit time according to nine weather environments according to Beaufort 0 to 8, actual performance data shows a larger number of various weather environments. The relationship between the navigation speed according to (for example, various combinations of wind speed, wind direction, wave height, wave direction, wave period, etc.) and fuel consumption per unit time is shown.

FIG. 7 is a diagram showing the configuration of the route table. The route table is a collection of data records (route data) regarding each of a plurality of routes. The route table has data fields [route name], [port name], [berthing time], [sea area name], and [distance]. In the data field [route name], a route name for identifying the route is stored. In the data field [port name], data indicating the port names of a plurality of ports (including the departure port and the destination port) on the route is stored in order on the route. The data field [berthing time] stores data indicating the berthing time at the corresponding port. In the data field [sea area name], data indicating the sea area name of the sea area through which the route passes in the navigation section from the corresponding port to the next port on the route is stored. The data field [distance] stores data indicating the distance of the portion of the channel that passes through the corresponding sea area.

The performance data group and the route table are data directly input to the terminal device 11 by the user, for example. In addition, the method by which the terminal device 11 acquires the performance data group and the route table is not limited to input by the user. For example, a performance data group and a route table may be generated in a device not shown in FIG. 1, and the terminal device 11 may receive the performance data group and the route table from the device.

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing the structure of the weather sea table table group. The meteorological sea state table group is a group of weather sea state tables corresponding to each of a plurality of sea areas. The weather and sea state table is a collection of data records corresponding to each of a predetermined period of time. The meteorological sea state table has data fields [period] and [weather sea state]. Data indicating a period is stored in the data field [period]. The data field [meteorological sea state] includes subfields [wind direction], [wind speed], [wave direction], [wave height], [wave period], [tide direction], and [tide speed]. These subfields include the wind direction, wind speed, etc. in the past period indicated by the data stored in the data field [period] in the sea area corresponding to the weather sea table (the parameters of the weather sea state according to the subfield name). ) Is stored.

The data stored in the meteorological sea state table group is data received by the terminal device 11 from the server device 12. The server device 12 accumulates new weather and sea state data as time passes. The terminal device 11 receives, for example, weather sea condition data that has not been received from the server device 12 every elapse of a predetermined time, and adds it to the weather sea state table group.

The description of the configuration of the terminal device 11 will be continued with reference to FIG. The acquisition unit 111 includes a performance data acquisition unit 1111 that acquires a performance data group, a route data acquisition unit 1112 that acquires a route table, and a weather and sea state data acquisition unit 1113 that acquires weather and sea state data stored in the weather and sea state table group. .

Furthermore, the acquisition unit 111 acquires a variable data acquisition unit 1114 for acquiring variable data indicating a navigation speed or a fuel consumption per unit time that the user inputs to the terminal device 11 on a setting screen to be described later. 11 includes a load amount data acquisition unit 1115 that acquires load amount data indicating the load amount to be input.

The data acquired by the acquisition unit 111 is not limited to the data acquired by the performance data acquisition unit 1111 to the load amount data acquisition unit 1115. For example, the acquisition unit 111 acquires various data such as data indicating the departure time used in the estimation process.

Display unit 113 displays various information to the user. The display unit 113 is realized by the display device 104 that operates under the control of the processor 102. FIG. 9 is a diagram showing a setting screen displayed by the display unit 113. The setting screen is a screen for the user to set various parameters used in the estimation process.

In the area A1 of the setting screen, a ship name input field is displayed. When the user clicks the button on the right side of the input field in the area A1, a list of ship name options is displayed on the setting screen. The ship name displayed in the list is a ship name corresponding to each piece of performance data included in the performance data group (see FIG. 5). The user can easily input the ship name in the input field by selecting the desired ship name from the list.

In area A2 of the setting screen, radio buttons for selecting either “constant navigation speed mode” or “constant fuel consumption mode” and an input field for variables corresponding to each mode are displayed. The constant navigation speed mode is a navigation method in which the ship navigates so as to keep the navigation speed constant. The fuel consumption constant mode is a navigation method in which the ship navigates so as to keep the fuel consumption constant per unit time.

When the user checks the radio button corresponding to the constant navigation speed mode in the area A2, the user can input the navigation speed in the navigation speed input field. Further, when the user checks the radio button corresponding to the fuel consumption constant mode in the area A2, the user can input the fuel consumption per unit time in the input field of the fuel consumption per unit time. Note that the data input in the input field of the area A2 is variable data acquired by the variable data acquisition unit 1114.

In the area A3 of the setting screen, a route name input field and a world map are displayed. When the user clicks the button on the right side of the input field in area A3, a list of route name choices is displayed on the setting screen. The route name displayed in the list is a route name corresponding to each data record included in the route table (see FIG. 7). The user can easily enter the route name in the input field by selecting the desired route name from the list. When the route name is input by the user, the route corresponding to the input route name is shown in the world map of the area A3.

The setting screen area A4 includes an input field for a port name of a departure port, an input field for a departure time (departure time from the departure port), an input field for a port name of a destination port, and an arrival time (arrival time at the destination port). ) Is displayed. When the user clicks the button on the right side of the input field of the departure port or destination port, a list of port name choices is displayed on the setting screen. The port name displayed in the list is the port name of the port on the route indicated by the route data (see FIG. 7) corresponding to the route name input in the area A3. The user can easily input the port name in the input field by selecting the desired port name from the list.

When the constant navigation speed mode is selected in the area A2, when the navigation speed is input in the navigation speed input field of the area A2, the arrival time is automatically input in the arrival time input field of the area A4. . When the navigation speed is input in the navigation speed input field of the area A2, the terminal device 11 firstly, between the ports on the navigation path indicated by the navigation path data (see FIG. 7) corresponding to the navigation path name input in the area A3. The distance between the ports corresponding to the port names entered in the input fields of the departure port and destination port in the area A4 (hereinafter referred to as “designated section”) is input to the navigation speed of the area A2. Divide by the navigation speed entered in the field to calculate the time required for navigation in the specified section. Subsequently, the terminal device 11 has elapsed from the time input in the departure time input field of the area A4, the total of the navigation time of the designated section and the berthing time in each of the ports on the designated section indicated by the route data. The later time is specified as the arrival time. The terminal device 11 displays the arrival time specified in this way in the arrival time input field of the area A4.

Further, when the constant navigation speed mode is selected in the area A2, when the arrival time is input in the arrival time input field of the area A4, the navigation speed is automatically input as the navigation speed in the area A2. When the arrival time is input to the arrival time input field of the area A4, the terminal device 11 is first input from the time input to the arrival time input field of the area A4 to the departure time input field of the area A4. The time until the departure time is calculated as the total required time. Subsequently, the terminal device 11 subtracts the total berthing time in each of the ports on the designated section indicated by the route data (see FIG. 7) according to the route name input in the area A3, Calculate the navigation time for the specified section. Subsequently, the terminal device 11 calculates the navigation speed by dividing the distance of the designated section indicated by the route data by the navigation time of the designated section. The terminal device 11 displays the navigation speed calculated in this way in the navigation speed input field of the area A2.

In the setting screen area A5, a plurality of check boxes for designating past periods are displayed. The period specified in the area A5 indicates a possible range of a virtual departure time used for calculating a time required for navigation or a sample of fuel consumption (described later) in the estimation process. Hereinafter, the departure time input in the departure time input field of area A4 is referred to as “designated departure time”, and the virtual departure time set for sample calculation within the period designated in area A5 is “ Called “virtual departure time”.

In the setting screen area A6, an input field for the loading amount is displayed. The user can input the load amount in the input field of area A6. Note that the data input in the input field of the area A6 is the load amount data acquired by the load amount data acquisition unit 1115.

When the user completes the input of necessary parameters on the setting screen, the user clicks the “OK” button in area A7. In response to this operation, the terminal device 11 performs an estimation process. The estimation process is performed by the calculation unit 114, the statistical processing unit 115, the fuel consumption specifying unit 116, the time specifying unit 117, and the probability specifying unit 118 included in the terminal device 11 (see FIG. 4). With reference to FIG. 4 again, the description of the components included in the terminal device 11 will be continued.

The calculation unit 114 uses the performance data included in the performance data group (see FIG. 5) and the weather sea state data included in the weather sea state table group (see FIG. 8), for each of a plurality of past times. When a ship with a specified time as a departure time navigates a specified route to produce a specified navigation speed or fuel consumption per unit time, at least one of the time required for the navigation and the fuel consumption calculate.

The statistical processing unit 115 estimates the probability distribution of the population using the time or fuel consumption calculated by the calculation unit 114 for each of a plurality of past times.

The fuel consumption specifying unit 116 uses the probability distribution related to the fuel consumption estimated by the statistical processing unit 115 to hold the fuel consumption that is estimated to be sufficient for navigation on the entire route with a predetermined probability, that is, the ship holds. Specify the amount of fuel to be used.

The time specifying unit 117 uses the probability distribution regarding the time estimated by the statistical processing unit 115 to specify the time required for the ship to complete the navigation along the designated route with a predetermined probability.

The probability specifying unit 118 uses the probability distribution regarding the time estimated by the statistical processing unit 115 to specify the probability that the ship will complete the navigation according to the designated route within a predetermined time.

Details of processing performed by each of the calculation unit 114, the statistical processing unit 115, the fuel consumption specifying unit 116, the time specifying unit 117, and the probability specifying unit 118 will be described together with the description of the estimation processing described later.

The server device 12 (see FIG. 1) accumulates meteorological sea state data indicating past meteorological conditions in each of the plurality of ocean areas, and accumulates meteorological sea state data in response to a request from an external device. It is a server apparatus which delivers. Since the server device 12 is a general server device that distributes data, description of the functional configuration thereof is omitted.

Subsequently, an estimation process performed by the terminal device 11 will be described. During the estimation process, the storage unit 112 temporarily stores a work table and a sample table for temporarily storing data generated by the calculation unit 114.

For each of various virtual departure times within the period specified by the user in the area A5 of the setting screen (see FIG. 9), the calculation unit 114 takes the time required for navigation when the ship starts navigation at the virtual departure time. And the fuel consumption is calculated as a sample. The work table is temporarily generated according to each virtual departure time, and is discarded when the calculation unit 114 finishes calculating a set of time and fuel consumption samples.

FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the configuration of the work table. The work table includes the data fields [route between ports], [sea name], [section number], [distance], [start time], [navigation speed], [fuel consumption per unit time], [end time], [Fuel consumption].

The data field [port between ports] stores data indicating the names of the departure port and the destination port of the portion between the adjacent ports of the route (hereinafter referred to as “port between ports”). In the data field [sea area name], data indicating the sea area name for identifying each sea area through which the inter-port passage passes is stored in the order on the inter-sea passage. In the data field [section number], a section number for identifying each section divided by a predetermined length distance (for example, 10 miles) from the side close to the departure port in the part of the inter-port route that passes through the sea area is stored. The Data indicating the distance of the corresponding section is stored in the data field [distance]. Except for the last section of each sea area, the distance of each section is a predetermined length (for example, 10 miles).

In the data field [start time], data indicating the start time of navigation in the corresponding section is stored. In the data field [navigation speed], the navigation speed when the ship navigates the corresponding section is stored. The data field [fuel consumption per unit time] stores the fuel consumption per unit time when the ship navigates the corresponding section. The data field [end time] stores data indicating the end time of navigation in the corresponding section. The data field [fuel consumption] stores the fuel consumption when the ship navigates the corresponding section.

FIG. 11 is a diagram showing the configuration of the sample table. The sample table is a table for storing a sample of time and fuel consumption required for navigation calculated by the calculation unit 114 for each of a plurality of virtual departure times. The sample table is a collection of data records corresponding to each virtual departure time, and has data fields [virtual departure time], [virtual arrival time], and [fuel consumption].

In the data field [virtual departure time], data indicating the virtual departure time is stored. In the data field [virtual arrival time], a time obtained by adding the time from the virtual departure time to the specified departure time to the arrival time at the destination port when the ship starts navigation at the virtual departure time (hereinafter referred to as “virtual arrival time”). Data indicating time) is stored. In other words, the virtual arrival time is the time when the ship that started sailing at the specified departure time arrives at the destination port when it is assumed that it has encountered the same meteorological conditions as when it started sailing at the virtual departure time. The data field [fuel consumption] stores data indicating the fuel consumption required to arrive at the destination port when the ship starts navigation at the virtual departure time.

The estimation process is large. The calculation unit 114 generates a large number of samples of time and fuel consumption required for navigation, and the statistical processing unit 115 estimates the probability distribution using the samples generated by the calculation unit 114. And the fuel consumption specifying unit 116, the time specifying unit 117, and the probability specifying unit 118 using the probability distribution estimated by the statistical processing unit 115, respectively, to specify the fuel consumption, time, and probability. The

FIG. 12A and FIG. 12B are diagrams showing a process flow in which the calculation unit 114 generates a large number of samples of time and fuel consumption required for navigation. When the user clicks the “OK” button in the area A7 on the setting screen (see FIG. 9), the calculation unit 114 generates a sample table (see FIG. 11) (step S001). Note that the sample table generated in step S001 is an empty table that does not yet contain a data record.

Subsequently, the calculating unit 114 reads the route data corresponding to the route name input in the input field of the area A3 on the setting screen from the route table (see FIG. 7) (step S002).

Subsequently, the calculation unit 114 selects one day from the date within the period corresponding to the check box checked in the area A5 of the setting screen in order from the oldest, and the departure time (designated in the input field of the area A4) The time when the date of (departure time) is replaced with the selected date is set as the virtual departure time (step S003).

Subsequently, the calculation unit 114 is a work table relating to a portion from the departure port to the destination port that is input in the input field of the area A4 of the setting screen in the route indicated by the route data read in step S002 (see FIG. 10). Is generated (step S004). In step S004, the calculation unit 114 stores data corresponding to the data fields [sea area name], [section number], and [distance] of the work table. In step S004, the calculation unit 114 stores data indicating the virtual departure time set in step S003 in the data field [start time] corresponding to the first section of the work table. That is, the virtual departure time is set as the start time of navigation in the first section.

Subsequently, the calculation unit 114 selects one section in order from the top in the work table from the sections identified by the section numbers stored in the data field [section number] of the work table (step S005). Hereinafter, the section selected in step S005 is referred to as “selected section”.

Subsequently, the calculation unit 114 reads a weather sea state table corresponding to the sea area including the selected section from the weather sea state table group (see FIG. 8), and includes a period including the start time of navigation of the selected section from the read weather sea state table. The meteorological sea state data corresponding to is read out (step S006).

Subsequently, the calculation unit 114, from the performance data group (see FIG. 5), the ship name input in the input field of the area A1 on the setting screen, the loading amount input in the input field of the area A6, in step S006. The performance data corresponding to the combination of the meteorological sea state indicated by the read weather sea state data is read (step S007).

Subsequently, the calculation unit 114 determines which one of the constant navigation speed mode and the constant fuel consumption mode is selected in the area A2 of the setting screen (step S008).

When the constant navigation speed mode is selected (step S008; “1”), the calculation unit 114 sets the data field [navigation speed] corresponding to the selected section of the work table in the input field of the area A2 of the setting screen. Stores data indicating the input navigation speed. That is, the calculation unit 114 sets the navigation speed specified by the user as the navigation speed of the selected section (step S009).

Subsequently, the calculation unit 114 specifies the fuel consumption per unit time according to the navigation speed set in step S009 according to the relationship between the navigation speed and the fuel consumption per unit time indicated by the performance data read in step S007. The calculation unit 114 stores data indicating the specified fuel consumption per unit time in the data field [fuel consumption per unit time] corresponding to the selected section of the work table. That is, the calculation unit 114 sets the fuel consumption per unit time according to the navigation speed set by the user as the fuel consumption per unit time required for navigation in the selected section (step S010).

When the fuel consumption constant mode is selected (step S008; “2”), the calculation unit 114 displays the setting screen area in the data field [fuel consumption per unit time] corresponding to the selected section of the work table. Data indicating the fuel consumption per unit time input in the input field of A2 is stored. That is, the calculation unit 114 sets the fuel consumption per unit time designated by the user as the fuel consumption per unit time required for navigation in the selected section (step S011).

Subsequently, the calculation unit 114 specifies the navigation speed according to the fuel consumption per unit time set in step S011 according to the relationship between the navigation speed indicated by the performance data read in step S007 and the fuel consumption per unit time. The calculation unit 114 stores data indicating the identified navigation speed in the data field [navigation speed] corresponding to the selected section of the work table. That is, the calculation unit 114 sets the navigation speed according to the fuel consumption per unit time set by the user as the navigation speed of the selected section (step S012).

After step S010 or S012, the calculation unit 114 divides the distance of the selected section by the navigation speed of the selected section, and calculates the time required for navigation of the selected section (step S013). Subsequently, the calculation unit 114 adds the time calculated in step S013 to the start time of the selected section, and specifies the navigation end time of the selected section (step S014). The calculation unit 114 stores data indicating the specified end time in the data field [end time] corresponding to the selected section of the work table.

Subsequently, the calculation unit 114 multiplies the fuel consumption per unit time in the selected section by the time calculated in step S013 to calculate the fuel consumption required for navigation in the selected section (step S015). The calculation unit 114 stores data indicating the calculated fuel consumption in the data field [fuel consumption] corresponding to the selected section of the work table.

Subsequently, the calculation unit 114 determines whether or not the selected section is the last section of the work table, that is, the last section of all the routes (step S016). When the selected section is not the last section of all the routes (step S016; “No”), the calculation unit 114 determines whether the selected section is the last section of the inter-port route (step S017).

When the selected section is the last section of the port-to-port route (step S017; “Yes”), the calculation unit 114 berths at the destination port of the port-to-port route including the selected section indicated by the route data read in step S002. The time is added to the navigation end time of the selected section, and the navigation start time of the section following the selected section is specified. The calculation unit 114 stores data indicating the specified start time in the data field [start time] corresponding to the next section of the selected section in the work table. That is, the calculation unit 114 sets the time at which the berthing time at the port has elapsed from the end time of the last section of the inter-port route as the start time of the next section (step S018).

When the selected section is not the last section of the inter-port route (step S017; “No”), the calculation unit 114 sets the data indicating the navigation end time of the selected section as the next section of the selected section in the work table. Store in the corresponding data field [start time]. That is, the calculation unit 114 sets the navigation end time of the section in the middle of the inter-port route as the navigation start time of the next section (step S019).

After step S018 or S019, the calculation unit 114 returns the process to step S005, selects the next section of the work table, and then repeats the processes after step S006.

If it is determined in step S016 that the selected section is the last section of all the routes (step S016; “Yes”), the calculation unit 114 ends the navigation of the selected section, that is, the last section of all the routes. The virtual arrival time is specified by adding the time from the virtual departure time set in step S003 to the departure time (designated departure time) input in the input field of area A4 of the setting screen to the time (step) S020).

Subsequently, the calculation unit 114 adds all the fuel consumptions indicated by the data stored in the data field [fuel consumption] of the work table to calculate the fuel consumption required for navigation on all the routes (step S021). ).

Subsequently, the calculation unit 114 adds one new data record to the sample table, and sets the data indicating the virtual departure time set in step S003 in the data field [virtual departure time] of the added data record in the data field [ Data indicating the virtual arrival time specified in step S020 is stored in the [virtual arrival time], and data indicating the fuel consumption calculated in step S021 is stored in the data field [fuel consumption] (step S022).

Subsequently, the calculation unit 114 discards the work table (step S023). Subsequently, the calculation unit 114 selects the virtual departure time set in step S003 by selecting the last day in the period corresponding to the check box checked in the area A5 of the setting screen, that is, the virtual departure time. It is determined whether it is the last virtual departure time (step S024).

When the virtual departure time set in step S003 is not the last virtual departure time (step S024; “No”), the calculation unit 114 returns the process to step S003 and responds to the check box checked in the area A5 of the setting screen. After selecting the next day within the specified period and setting a new virtual departure time, the processes in and after step S004 are repeated.

If the virtual departure time set in step S003 is the last virtual departure time (step S024; “Yes”), the calculation unit 114 ends the process.

When the processing of the calculation unit 114 described above is completed, the statistical processing unit 115 estimates the probability distribution using data stored in the sample table (see FIG. 11) stored in the storage unit 112.

The probability distribution estimated by the statistical processing unit 115 differs depending on the mode selected in the area A2 of the setting screen. When the constant fuel consumption mode is selected, the statistical processing unit 115 calculates the probability distribution of the population using each of the fuel consumptions indicated by the data stored in the data field [fuel consumption] of the sample table as a sample. (Hereinafter referred to as “probability distribution related to fuel consumption”) and a probability distribution of a population (hereinafter, referred to as “sample probability distribution”) using each of the virtual arrival times indicated by the data stored in the data field [virtual arrival time] of the sample table. (Referred to as “probability distribution over time”). On the other hand, when the constant navigation speed mode is selected, since the virtual arrival time is constant, the statistical processing unit 115 estimates only the probability distribution related to the fuel consumption, and does not estimate the probability distribution related to time.

In this embodiment, the statistical processing unit 115 estimates a probability distribution related to fuel consumption or a probability distribution related to time, assuming that the sample population indicated by the data stored in the sample table follows a normal distribution. However, the statistical processing unit 115 may estimate a probability distribution other than the normal distribution. Since the method for estimating the probability distribution of the population of a given sample is known, its description is omitted.

13 and 14 are diagrams showing a result display screen including a graph of the probability distribution estimated by the statistical processing unit 115. FIG. 13 shows a result display screen when the constant navigation speed mode is selected on the setting screen, and FIG. 14 shows a result display screen when the constant fuel consumption mode is selected on the setting screen.

In the region B1 of the result display screen in the constant navigation speed mode shown in FIG. 13, a graph of the probability distribution regarding the fuel consumption estimated by the statistical processing unit 115 is displayed. The graph illustrated in FIG. 13 indicates that the amount of fuel consumed by the ship for navigating all the routes is 1568.2 ton (value of + 3σ from the average) with a probability of 99.73%.

The fuel consumption specifying unit 116 uses the probability distribution related to the fuel consumption estimated by the statistical processing unit 115 to estimate the fuel consumption that is estimated to be sufficient for the navigation of all the routes with a probability of 99.73%, that is, the total Identify the amount of fuel that the ship should hold for navigation. The fuel amount specified by the fuel consumption specifying unit 116 is displayed in the graph displayed in the region B1 of the result display screen in the constant navigation speed mode.

Navigation speed, arrival time, and fuel consumption margin are displayed in area B2 of the result display screen in the constant navigation speed mode. The navigation speed and arrival time displayed on the result display screen in the constant navigation speed mode are the navigation speed designated by the user in the area A2 of the setting screen and the arrival time automatically set according to the navigation speed, or in the area A4. The arrival time set by the user and the navigation speed automatically set according to the arrival time.

The fuel consumption margin is defined as X (ton), which is the fuel consumption required for the entire navigation when the meteorological condition that the ship encounters while navigating is the reference Beaufort (for example, Beaufort 0). When the fuel consumption estimated to be required with a probability of 99.73% according to the probability distribution (1568.2 ton in the example of FIG. 13) is Y (ton), (Y−X) / X × 100 (%) This is a calculated value.

The statistical processing unit 115 calculates the fuel consumption margin according to the above calculation formula using the probability distribution regarding the estimated fuel consumption. In the area B2 of the result display screen in the constant navigation speed mode, the fuel consumption margin calculated by the statistical processing unit 115 is displayed.

In the region C1 of the result display screen in the constant fuel consumption mode shown in FIG. 14, a graph of the probability distribution regarding the time estimated by the statistical processing unit 115 is displayed. Further, in the region C2, a graph of the probability distribution regarding the fuel consumption estimated by the statistical processing unit 115 is displayed.

The graph illustrated in the area C1 of FIG. 14 indicates that the ship will arrive at the destination port by 13:15 on October 12, 2016 (value of + 3σ from the average) with a probability of 99.73%. The time specifying unit 117 uses the probability distribution regarding the time estimated by the statistical processing unit 115, and the probability of 99.73% when the ship starts to sail at the departure time designated by the user in the area A4 of the setting screen. To specify the time of arrival at the destination port (13:15 on Oct. 12, 2016 in the example of FIG. 14). In the graph displayed in the area C1 of the result display screen in the constant fuel consumption mode, the time specified by the time specifying unit 117 is displayed.

The graph illustrated in the region C2 of FIG. 14 indicates that the fuel consumption amount required for the ship to navigate the entire route is 996.83% or less (value of + 3σ from the average) with a probability of 99.73%.

The fuel consumption specifying unit 116 uses the probability distribution relating to the fuel consumption estimated by the statistical processing unit 115 to estimate the fuel consumption that is estimated to be sufficient for the navigation of the entire route with a probability of 99.73%. Identify the amount of fuel that the vessel should hold for navigation on all routes. In the graph displayed in the region C2 of the result display screen in the constant navigation speed mode, the fuel amount specified by the fuel consumption specifying unit 116 is displayed.

In the region C3 of the result display screen in the constant fuel consumption mode, the fuel consumption per unit time, the fuel consumption margin, and the arrival probability are displayed. The fuel consumption per unit time displayed on the result display screen in the constant fuel consumption mode is the fuel consumption per unit time specified by the user in the area A2 of the setting screen. The fuel consumption margin displayed on the result display screen in the constant fuel consumption mode is a value calculated by the statistical processing unit 115 in the same manner as the fuel consumption margin displayed on the result display screen in the constant navigation speed mode. . The arrival probability displayed on the result display screen in the constant fuel consumption mode is the probability of arrival at the destination port by the arrival time designated by the user in the area A4 of the setting screen.

The probability specifying unit 118 uses the probability distribution regarding the time estimated by the statistical processing unit 115, and when the ship starts to sail at the departure time designated by the user in the region A4 of the setting screen, the user sets the region of the setting screen. The probability that the ship will arrive at the destination port by the arrival time designated in A4 (65.2% in the example of FIG. 14) is specified. In the region C3 of the result display screen in the constant fuel consumption mode, the probability specified by the probability specifying unit 118 is displayed as the arrival probability.

As described above, according to the system 1, the user can know the time and fuel consumption required at a predetermined probability when the ship navigates. Further, according to the system 1, the user can know the probability (arrival probability) of arriving at the destination port by the designated arrival time when the ship starts to sail at the designated departure time. The time, fuel consumption, and arrival probability that the system 1 presents to the user are specified according to a probability distribution estimated based on past weather and sea conditions. Therefore, the time, fuel consumption, and arrival probability that the system 1 presents to the user are reasonable estimates that take into account the influence of weather conditions on the navigation of the ship. Therefore, the user uses the information provided by the system 1 to determine the navigation speed of the ship or the fuel consumption per unit time, and to determine whether or not to navigate the ship to the destination where the arrival time is specified. can do.

[Modification]
The above-described embodiments can be variously modified within the scope of the technical idea of the present invention. Examples of these modifications are shown below.

(1) In the above-described embodiment, when the constant fuel consumption mode is designated in the terminal device 11, the ship can arrive at one destination designated by the user with a predetermined probability (for example, 99.73%). Specify and display the time as the arrival time. Instead, when the terminal device 11 navigates the designated departure port at the designated departure time and navigates with the designated fuel consumption per unit time, A configuration may be adopted in which a time at which arrival at the port is possible with a predetermined probability (for example, 99.73%) is specified and displayed as an arrival time.

FIG. 15 is a diagram showing a screen displayed by the terminal device 11 according to this modification. In the area D1 of the screen in FIG. 15, the user inputs the ship name, the port name of the departure port, the departure time, the fuel consumption per unit time, and the loading amount. Thereafter, when the user clicks the “OK” button in the area D2, a time that can be reached with a probability of 99.73% for each of the plurality of destination ports is displayed as an arrival time in the area D3. In this modification, the statistical processing unit 115 performs the same process as that in the fuel consumption constant mode in the above-described embodiment for each of a plurality of routes from the departure port to each of the destination ports, and calculates the probability distribution. presume. In addition, the time specifying unit 117 performs the same processing as that in the above-described embodiment for each of the plurality of routes, and uses the probability distribution estimated by the statistical processing unit 115 to display the arrival time displayed in the region D3. Is identified.

(2) In the above-described embodiment, the load amount data indicates the ratio (%) of the load amount to the maximum load amount. Instead of this, the load data may indicate the weight (ton) of the load. Further, the load data may indicate the draft of the ship.

(3) In the above-described embodiment, as a section which is a unit in which the calculation unit 114 specifies the navigation speed or the fuel consumption per unit time according to the performance data, the portion passing through the sea area in the inter-port route is closer to the departure port A section divided by a predetermined distance (for example, 10 miles) is used. The section determination method is not limited to this. For example, in the constant fuel consumption mode, the part of the route that the ship sails in a predetermined length of time (for example, 15 minutes) may be used as a section in which the calculation unit 114 is a unit that specifies the navigation speed according to the performance data. Good. In this case, the position and distance of each section in the port-to-port route vary depending on the weather conditions that the ship encounters. Therefore, the position and distance of each section in the inter-port route differ depending on each of the plurality of virtual departure times.

(4) In the above-described embodiment, the fuel consumption specifying unit 116 specifies the fuel consumption required for navigation on all routes. Instead of or in addition to this, a configuration in which the fuel consumption specifying unit 116 specifies the amount of oil supplement may be employed. In this modification, the acquisition unit 111 acquires residual oil amount data indicating the residual oil amount of the ship when it arrives at the bunkering port. The fuel consumption amount specifying unit 116 specifies the fuel consumption amount required for navigation from the bunkering port to the destination port, presents the remaining oil amount indicated by the remaining oil amount data from the identified fuel consumption amount, and supplies the bunkering amount. Is calculated. The display unit 113 displays the amount of refueling calculated by the fuel consumption specifying unit 116 on the result display screen. According to this modification, the user can easily know the amount of fuel oil to be refueled at the refueling port.

(5) In the above-described embodiment, the performance data indicates the relationship between the navigation speed and the fuel consumption per unit time in a tabular format. Instead, a configuration in which the performance data indicates the relationship between the navigation speed and the fuel consumption per unit time by a calculation formula may be adopted.

(6) In the above-described embodiment, the fuel consumption while the ship is anchored is not considered. Instead, a configuration in which the terminal device 11 considers the fuel consumption while the ship is anchored may be adopted. In this modification, the acquisition unit 111 acquires data indicating the fuel consumption per unit time during berthing. The calculation unit 114 calculates the fuel consumption during berthing by multiplying the berthing time at each of the ports through which the berth is spent by the fuel consumption per unit time during the berth indicated by the data acquired by the acquisition unit 111. The calculation unit 114 adds the fuel consumption during berthing calculated in this way to the fuel consumption during navigation, thereby calculating the fuel consumption required for navigation on all routes, taking into account the fuel consumption during berthing. calculate. According to this modification, the fuel consumption that is closer to the actual estimation is performed.

(7) In the above-described embodiment, the calculation unit 114 sets different virtual departure times for each day, and calculates a sample of arrival time or fuel consumption. The time interval of the virtual departure time set by the calculation unit 114 is not limited to one day, and for example, a different virtual departure time may be set in units of 12 hours.

(8) In the above-described embodiment, the variable designated by the user, that is, the navigation speed (the constant navigation speed mode) or the fuel consumption per unit time (the constant fuel consumption mode) is constant throughout the entire route. Instead, the user may be able to specify different variables for each of the inter-port routes or sea areas, for example.

(9) In the embodiment described above, weather conditions and loading are taken into account as parameters that affect the relationship between the navigation speed of the ship and the fuel consumption per unit time. Other parameters such as trim may be considered as parameters that affect the relationship between the navigation speed and the fuel consumption per unit time in the navigation of the ship. In this case, the performance data acquisition unit 1111 acquires performance data corresponding to the parameters such as trim, and the calculation unit 114 uses the performance data corresponding to the specified parameters such as trim to navigate the navigation speed in each section. Alternatively, the fuel consumption is calculated.

(10) In the above-described embodiment, the performance data indicates the relationship between the navigation speed and the fuel consumption per unit time. As long as the performance data shows the relationship between the first variable correlated with the navigation speed and the second variable correlated with the fuel consumption per unit time, these variables are not limited. For example, the performance data may indicate the relationship between navigation speed and horsepower, the relationship between propeller rotation speed and load, and the like.

(11) In the embodiment described above, the routes for which the terminal device 11 performs the estimation process regarding the fuel consumption and the arrival time are all routes from the departure port to the destination port of the route designated by the user. It may replace with this and the terminal device 11 may perform the estimation process regarding the route from the present position of a ship to the destination port. In this case, the acquisition unit 111 of the terminal device 11 acquires position data indicating the current position of the ship specified by, for example, GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) mounted on the ship. And the terminal device 11 performs an estimation process regarding the route (remaining) from the current position of the ship indicated by the acquired position data to the destination port.

(12) In the above-described embodiment, the calculation unit 114 calculates the fuel consumption required for navigation (the constant navigation speed mode and the constant fuel consumption mode) or the arrival time (the fuel consumption amount) according to each of the plurality of virtual departure times. The sample of the constant mode is calculated. Instead of or in addition to this, the calculation unit 114 obtains a sample of fuel consumption per unit time (constant navigation speed mode) or navigation speed (constant fuel consumption mode) corresponding to each of the plurality of virtual departure times. It may be calculated. In this case, the statistical processing unit 115 estimates the probability distribution of the fuel consumption per unit time (constant navigation speed mode) or the probability distribution of the navigation speed (constant fuel consumption mode).

(13) In the above-described embodiment, a work table (see FIG. 10) is generated every time the estimation process is performed, and the work table is discarded when the estimation process ends. That is, the calculation unit 114 repeatedly calculates the navigation speed (constant fuel consumption mode) or the fuel consumption per unit time (constant navigation speed mode) each time an estimation process is performed. Instead, for each of various virtual departure times, the calculation unit 114 has a navigation speed of each section corresponding to various fuel consumptions per unit time (constant fuel consumption mode) or each corresponding to various navigation speeds. The fuel consumption per unit time of the section (navigation speed constant mode) may be calculated, and the calculated result may be stored in the storage unit 112.

FIG. 16 is a diagram illustrating the configuration of a table (hereinafter referred to as “navigation speed table”) that stores the navigation speed of each section calculated by the calculation unit 114 in this modification.

In the navigation speed table illustrated in FIG. 16, a certain ship of a certain load capacity has a fuel consumption amount “50 (ton / day) per unit time at a virtual departure time“ January 1, 2010 12:00 ”. The navigation speed calculated by the calculation unit 114 is stored for each section navigated in 3 hours when navigation is started according to a certain route. The navigation speed table includes data fields [period], [section start point], [section end point], and [navigation speed]. Data indicating a navigation period is stored in the data field [period]. In this case, the time length of the period indicated by the data stored in the data field [period] is always 3 hours.

In the data field [section start point], data indicating the position of the start point of the section in which the ship navigates during the period indicated by the data stored in the data field [period] is stored. The data field [section end point] stores data indicating the position of the end point of the section in which the ship navigates in the period indicated by the data stored in the data field [period].

In the data field [navigation speed], the calculation unit 114 includes the period indicated by the data stored in the data field [period] and the sea area indicated by the data stored in the data fields [start point of section] and [end point of section]. The data indicating the navigation speed calculated according to the performance data is stored based on the meteorological sea state data corresponding to the above.

In the storage unit 112, the navigation speed table having the data structure shown in FIG. 16 is stored for various combinations of ships, loading capacity, route, virtual departure time, and fuel consumption per unit time.

FIG. 17 is a diagram illustrating the configuration of a table (hereinafter referred to as “fuel consumption table”) that stores the fuel consumption per unit time calculated by the calculation unit 114 in this modification.

In the fuel consumption amount table illustrated in FIG. 17, a certain ship having a certain load capacity has a navigation speed “15 (knot)” at a virtual departure time “January 1, 2010 12:00”. The fuel consumption per unit time calculated by the calculation unit 114 is stored for each section that travels in 3 hours when navigation according to the route is started. The fuel consumption table includes data fields [period], [section start point], [section end point], and [fuel consumption per unit time]. The data stored in the data fields [period], [section start point], and [section end point] of the fuel consumption table are the same as the data stored in the data field of the same name in the navigation speed table.

In the data field [fuel consumption per unit time], the calculation unit 114 stores the period indicated by the data stored in the data field [period], and the data fields [section start point] and [section end point]. Data indicating fuel consumption per unit time calculated according to the performance data is stored based on meteorological sea state data corresponding to the sea area indicated by the data.

In the storage unit 112, a fuel consumption amount table having a data configuration shown in FIG. 17 is stored for various combinations of ships, loading capacity, route, virtual departure time, and navigation speed.

The calculation unit 114 extracts a navigation speed table corresponding to a virtual departure time within a period designated by the user in the area A5 of the setting screen (see FIG. 9) from the plurality of navigation speed tables stored in the storage unit 112. To do. Subsequently, the calculation unit 114 calculates the navigation time and the arrival time at the destination port using the navigation speed stored in the extracted navigation speed table. The statistical processing unit 115 estimates the probability distribution (probability distribution regarding time) of the population using the arrival time calculated by the calculation unit 114 as a sample.

The calculation unit 114 also calculates the fuel consumption amount according to the virtual departure time within the period designated by the user in the area A5 of the setting screen (see FIG. 9) from the plurality of navigation speed tables stored in the storage unit 112. Extract the table. Subsequently, the calculation unit 114 calculates the fuel consumption required for navigation on all the routes using the fuel consumption per unit time stored in the extracted fuel consumption table. The statistical processing unit 115 estimates the probability distribution of the population (probability distribution related to fuel consumption) using the fuel consumption calculated by the calculation unit 114 as a sample.

(14) The statistical processing unit 115 of the terminal device 11 stores data stored in the navigation speed table (see FIG. 16) or the fuel consumption table (see FIG. 17) stored in the storage unit 112 in the above-described modification, for example. To calculate statistical values for navigation speed when the vessel navigates at the specified unit of fuel consumption or statistical values for fuel consumption per unit of time when the vessel navigates at the specified navigation rate. May be.

FIG. 18 is a diagram exemplifying a screen displayed on the display unit 113 when the constant fuel consumption mode is designated in this modification. In the screen illustrated in FIG. 18, a statistical value relating to the navigation speed when the ship specified by the user navigates the route specified by the user with the loading amount and fuel consumption per unit time specified by the user. Is displayed.

The graph shown on the left side of FIG. 18 shows the average value of the navigation speed of the ship in each month from January to December when the ship navigates under the conditions specified by the user. The value (knot) compared with the navigation speed when a ship navigates in the environment of Beaufort which becomes is shown. For example, the calculation unit 114 performs navigation based on the navigation speed corresponding to the fuel consumption per unit time specified by the user according to the performance data corresponding to the ship specified by the user, the loading capacity and the reference Beaufort. It is specified as the speed W.

Subsequently, the statistical processing unit 115 selects a data record included in a plurality of navigation speed tables corresponding to a combination of the ship, the route, the load capacity, and the fuel consumption per unit time designated by the user in January. The corresponding data record is extracted, and the average value V of the navigation speed indicated by the data stored in the extracted data record is calculated. The statistical processing unit 115 subtracts the reference navigation speed W calculated by the calculation unit 114 from the average navigation speed V calculated for January (V−W) to obtain a navigation speed margin for January (V−W). knot). The statistical processing unit 115 calculates the navigation speed margin in the same manner from February to December. The graph shown on the left side of FIG. 18 shows the navigation speed margin calculated in this way.

On the right side of FIG. 18, the median value and average value of the navigation speed for one or more months specified by the user are displayed. The statistical processing unit 115 selects a month specified by the user from among data records included in a plurality of navigation speed tables corresponding to the combination of the ship, the route, the loading capacity, and the fuel consumption per unit time specified by the user. A data record corresponding to the data is extracted, and a median value and an average value of the navigation speed indicated by the data stored in the extracted data record are calculated. The median value and the average value shown on the right side of FIG. 18 indicate the statistical values calculated in this way.

FIG. 19 is a diagram showing another example of a screen displayed on the display unit 113 when the constant navigation speed mode is designated in this modification. In the screen illustrated in FIG. 19, a statistical value related to fuel consumption per unit time when the ship specified by the user navigates the route specified by the user with the loading amount and the navigation speed specified by the user. Is displayed.

The graph shown on the left side of FIG. 19 shows the average value of the fuel consumption per unit time of the ship in each month from January to December when the ship navigates under the conditions specified by the user. It shows the value (%) compared with the fuel consumption per unit time when the ship navigates in the environment of the designated standard Beaufort. For example, the calculation unit 114 is based on the fuel consumption per unit time corresponding to the navigation speed specified by the user according to the performance data corresponding to the ship specified by the user, the loading capacity and the reference Beaufort. It is specified as fuel consumption M per hour.

Subsequently, the statistical processing unit 115 selects data corresponding to one month from data records included in a plurality of fuel consumption tables corresponding to a combination of a ship, a route, a loading amount, and a navigation speed designated by the user. A record is extracted, and an average value N of fuel consumption per unit time indicated by data stored in the extracted data record is calculated. The statistical processing unit 115 subtracts the reference fuel consumption amount M per unit time calculated by the calculation unit 114 from the average value N of fuel consumption amount per unit time calculated for January (NM), A value ((N−M) / M × 100) obtained by dividing by the reference fuel consumption amount M per unit time and multiplying by 100 is calculated as a fuel consumption margin per unit time (%) for January. The calculation unit 114 similarly calculates the fuel consumption margin per unit time for February to December. The graph shown on the left side of FIG. 19 shows the fuel consumption margin per unit time calculated in this way.

On the right side of FIG. 19, the median and average values of fuel consumption per unit time for one or more months specified by the user are displayed. The statistical processing unit 115 corresponds to the month specified by the user from among the data records included in the plurality of fuel consumption tables corresponding to the combination of the ship, the route, the loading amount, and the navigation speed specified by the user. Extract data records. Subsequently, the statistical processing unit 115 calculates the above-described fuel consumption margin per unit time for each of the fuel consumption per unit time indicated by the data stored in the extracted data record. The statistical processing unit 115 calculates the median value and the average value of the fuel consumption margin per unit time calculated as described above. The median value and the average value shown on the right side of FIG. 19 indicate the statistical values calculated in this way.

(15) The terminal device 11 may specify the fuel consumption per unit time according to the ship, the route, the loading amount, the navigation time, and the arrival probability specified by the user. The arrival probability is the probability that the ship has arrived at the destination port of the route by the arrival time. In this modification, the user designates a ship, a route, a loading capacity, a departure time, an arrival time, and an arrival probability.

FIG. 20 is a diagram showing an operation flow of the terminal device 11 in this modification. The variable data acquisition unit 1114 first sets the initial value “0.1 ton / day” of the fuel consumption per unit time as the fuel consumption per unit time in the constant fuel consumption mode (step S101).

Subsequently, the calculation unit 114 is similar to the processing in the fuel consumption constant mode in the above-described embodiment regarding the ship, the route, the loading amount specified by the user, and the fuel consumption per unit time set in step S101. The time required for navigation corresponding to each of the plurality of virtual departure times is calculated as a sample (step S102).

Subsequently, the statistical processing unit 115 estimates the probability distribution (probability distribution related to time) of the sample population calculated by the calculation unit 114 in step S102 (step S103). Subsequently, the time specifying unit 117 specifies the time of arrival at the destination port with the arrival probability specified by the user according to the probability distribution estimated in step S103 (step S104).

Subsequently, the storage unit 112 stores the time specified by the time specifying unit 117 in step S104 in association with the fuel consumption per unit time and the probability distribution used for specifying the time (step S105).

Subsequently, the time specifying unit 117 determines whether or not the fuel consumption per unit time set at that time is the maximum value of the fuel consumption per unit time of the ship (step S106). If the set fuel consumption per unit time is not the maximum value (step S106; No), the variable data acquisition unit 1114 sets the fuel consumption per unit time set at that time to a predetermined amount (for example, 0.1 ton). / Day) is increased (step S107). Thereafter, the terminal device 11 repeats the processes after step S102.

When the set fuel consumption amount per unit time is the maximum value (step S106; Yes), the time specifying unit 117 is the number of times stored in the storage unit 112 (the time specified in step S104). The fuel consumption per unit time stored in association with the time closest to the arrival time designated by the user is specified (step S108). The fuel consumption per unit time specified in this way is the fuel consumption per unit time for the ship to arrive at the destination port by the arrival time specified by the user with the arrival probability specified by the user.

The display unit 113 displays, for example, the screen shown in FIG. 21 (hereinafter referred to as “result display screen”) using the data stored in the storage unit 112 in step S105. In the area E1 of the result display screen, the arrival probability set by the user is displayed. In the area E2, the fuel consumption per unit time and the fuel consumption for the ship to sail under the conditions specified by the user are displayed.

The fuel consumption per unit time displayed in the area E2 is the fuel consumption per unit time specified in step S108. In addition, the fuel consumption displayed in the area E2 includes the navigation time in the fuel consumption per unit time displayed in the area E2, that is, the berthing time at the port from the time from the departure time to the arrival time specified by the user. Calculated by multiplying the deducted time.

In the area E3, a graph showing the relationship between the fuel consumption per unit time and the arrival time is displayed. The graph in the area E3 shows the relationship between the fuel consumption per unit time and the time indicated by the data stored in the storage unit 112 in step S105. In the area E4, a graph showing the probability distribution of arrival times when the ship navigates with the fuel consumption per unit time displayed in the area E2 is displayed. The graph in the region E4 shows the probability distribution stored in association with the fuel consumption per unit time specified in step S108.

In the processing of the terminal device 11 described above, the time specified by the time specifying unit 117 is compared with the arrival time specified by the user. Instead, the probability specified by the probability specifying unit 118 may be compared with the arrival probability specified by the user. FIG. 22 shows a flow of processing performed by the terminal device 11 in this case. Of the processes shown in FIG. 22, the same steps as those shown in FIG. 20 are given the same step numbers. Hereinafter, processing different from the processing shown in FIG. 20 among the processing shown in FIG. 22 will be described.

Instead of step S104 in the flow of FIG. 20, the probability specifying unit 118 specifies the probability of arrival at the destination port by the arrival time designated by the user according to the probability distribution estimated in step S103 (step S204). ).

Subsequently, the storage unit 112 stores the probability specified by the probability specifying unit 118 in step S204 in association with the fuel consumption per unit time and the probability distribution used for specifying the probability (step S205).

Subsequently, the probability specifying unit 118 determines whether or not the fuel consumption per unit time set at that time is the maximum value of the fuel consumption per unit time of the ship (step S106). If the set fuel consumption per unit time is not the maximum value (step S106; No), the variable data acquisition unit 1114 sets the fuel consumption per unit time set at that time to a predetermined amount (for example, 0.1 ton). / Day) is increased (step S107). Thereafter, the terminal device 11 repeats the processes after step S102.

When the set fuel consumption amount per unit time is the maximum value (step S106; Yes), the probability specifying unit 118 has a large number of probabilities stored in the storage unit 112 (probabilities specified in step S204). The fuel consumption per unit time stored in association with the probability closest to the arrival probability designated by the user is specified (step S208). The fuel consumption per unit time specified in this way is the fuel consumption per unit time for the ship to arrive at the destination port by the arrival time specified by the user with the arrival probability specified by the user.

The display unit 113 displays, for example, a result display screen illustrated in FIG. 23 using the data stored in the storage unit 112 in step S205. The result display screen of FIG. 23 is different from the result display screen of FIG. 21 in the graph of the region E3. In this case, a graph indicating the relationship between the fuel consumption per unit time and the arrival probability is displayed in the region E3. This graph shows the relationship between the fuel consumption per unit time and the probability indicated by the data stored in the storage unit 112 in step S205.

According to this modification, the user can know the minimum amount of fuel consumption per unit time necessary for navigating the ship in order to arrive at the destination with the arrival probability specified by the arrival time.

(16) Instead of the fuel consumption per unit time in the above-described embodiment, a load may be used. In this case, the terminal device 11 stores, for example, a correspondence table or a conversion formula indicating the relationship between the fuel consumption per unit time and the load in the storage unit 112, and the fuel consumption per unit time and the load as necessary. Convert between.

(17) In the above-described embodiment, the time handled by the terminal device 11 may be expressed as a time from the departure time. For example, the calculation unit 114 may calculate the navigation time instead of the arrival time in the calculation of the sample related to time. Since the arrival time is the time when the navigation time and the berth time have elapsed from the departure time, either the navigation time or the arrival time may be used. Therefore, instead of the time specifying unit 117 specifying the arrival time, the navigation time may be specified. Further, instead of the probability specifying unit 118 specifying the probability that the ship will arrive at the destination port by the arrival time specified by the user, the navigation time specified by the user (from the time from the departure time to the arrival time to the berth time) You may specify the probability that a ship will arrive at the destination port within a period of time.

(18) In the above-described embodiment, the terminal device 11 and the server device 12 are realized by a general computer executing processing according to a program. Instead, at least a part of the terminal device 11 and the server device 12 may be configured as a so-called dedicated device.

(19) The program according to the present invention, that is, the program exemplified as the program for realizing the terminal device 11 by being executed by the computer 10 in the above-described embodiment is, for example, a computer such as an optical recording medium or a semiconductor memory. It may be provided in a state stored in a readable recording medium, or may be provided via a communication network such as the Internet. When the program according to the present invention is provided in a state stored in a recording medium, the computer 10 reads and uses the program from the recording medium. When the program according to the present invention is provided via a communication network, the computer 10 receives the program from a distribution source device and uses it.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 ... System, 10 ... Computer, 11 ... Terminal device, 12 ... Server device, 20 ... Computer, 101 ... Memory, 102 ... Processor, 103 ... Communication IF, 104 ... Display device, 105 ... Operation device, 111 ... Acquisition part, DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 112 ... Memory | storage part, 113 ... Display part, 114 ... Calculation part, 115 ... Statistical processing part, 116 ... Fuel consumption specific part, 117 ... Time specific part, 118 ... Probability specific part, 201 ... Memory, 202 ... Processor, 203 ... Communication IF, 1111 ... Performance data acquisition unit, 1112 ... Route data acquisition unit, 1113 ... Meteorological sea state data acquisition unit, 1114 ... Variable data acquisition unit, 1115 ... Load data acquisition unit

Claims

The relationship between the first variable correlating with the navigation speed and the second variable correlating with the fuel consumption per unit time when the ship navigates under the environment for each of a plurality of meteorological conditions A performance data acquisition unit for acquiring performance data;
For each of a plurality of past periods, a meteorological sea state data acquisition unit that acquires meteorological sea state data indicating each of the one or more sea areas in that period, and
A variable data acquisition unit that acquires variable data indicating a specified value for the first variable when the ship navigates a route that passes through the one or more sea areas;
Using the performance data and the meteorological sea state data, for each of a plurality of past times, the ship provides a value indicated by the variable data acquired by the variable data acquisition unit by using the time as a departure time. A calculation unit that calculates a value related to the second variable when the aircraft sails or a value that indicates a fuel consumption amount required for the navigation;
A data processing apparatus comprising: a statistical processing unit that statistically processes values calculated by the calculation unit for each of a plurality of past times.
The data processing apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the statistical processing unit estimates a probability distribution of a population using a value calculated by the calculation unit for each of a plurality of past times.
Using the probability distribution estimated by the statistical processing unit, a predetermined probability is sufficient for the ship to navigate the route at a navigation speed according to the value indicated by the variable data acquired by the variable data acquisition unit. The data processing apparatus according to claim 2, further comprising a fuel consumption specifying unit that specifies the fuel consumption.
The relationship between the first variable correlating with the navigation speed and the second variable correlating with the fuel consumption per unit time when the ship navigates under the environment for each of a plurality of meteorological conditions A performance data acquisition unit for acquiring performance data;
For each of a plurality of past periods, a meteorological sea state data acquisition unit that acquires meteorological sea state data indicating each of the one or more sea areas in that period, and
A variable data acquisition unit that acquires variable data indicating a specified value related to the second variable when the ship navigates a route that passes through the one or more sea areas;
Using the performance data and the meteorological sea state data, for each of a plurality of past times, the ship provides a value indicated by the variable data acquired by the variable data acquisition unit by using the time as a departure time. A calculation unit for calculating a value related to the first variable when the vehicle sails or a value indicating a time required for the navigation;
A data processing apparatus comprising: a statistical processing unit that statistically processes values calculated by the calculation unit for each of a plurality of past times.
The data processing apparatus according to claim 4, wherein the statistical processing unit estimates a probability distribution of a population using a value calculated by the calculation unit for each of a plurality of past times as a sample.
The data processing apparatus according to claim 5, further comprising a time specifying unit that specifies a time required for the ship to complete the navigation of the route with a predetermined probability using the probability distribution estimated by the statistical processing unit.
The variable data acquisition unit acquires a plurality of variable data,
The statistical processing unit estimates a probability distribution of a population using the value calculated by the calculation unit as a sample for each of the plurality of variable data,
The time specifying unit uses the probability distribution estimated for each of the plurality of variable data by the statistical processing unit, so that the ship completes the navigation of the route within a predetermined time with a predetermined probability. The data processing apparatus according to claim 6, wherein two variables are specified.
The data processing apparatus according to claim 5, further comprising a probability specifying unit that specifies a probability that the ship completes the navigation of the route within a predetermined time by using the probability distribution estimated by the statistical processing unit.
The variable data acquisition unit acquires a plurality of variable data,
The statistical processing unit estimates a probability distribution of a population using the value calculated by the calculation unit as a sample for each of the plurality of variable data,
The probability specifying unit uses the probability distribution estimated for each of the plurality of variable data by the statistical processing unit, so that the ship completes the navigation of the route within a predetermined time with a predetermined probability. The data processing apparatus according to claim 8, wherein two variables are specified.
A load capacity data acquisition unit for acquiring load capacity data indicating a load capacity in navigation along the route of the ship;
The performance data acquisition unit relates to each of a plurality of load amounts, and the performance data indicating a relationship between the first variable and the second variable when the ship carrying the load of the load amount navigates. Get
The data processing device according to any one of claims 1 to 9, wherein the calculation unit performs the calculation using the performance data related to the load amount indicated by the load amount data.
On the computer,
The relationship between the first variable correlating with the navigation speed and the second variable correlating with the fuel consumption per unit time when the ship navigates under the environment for each of a plurality of meteorological conditions Processing to obtain performance data;
For each of a plurality of past periods, a process for obtaining meteorological sea state data indicating each weather sea state of one or more sea areas at the time period;
A process of acquiring variable data indicating a specified value related to the first variable when the ship navigates a route passing through the one or more sea areas;
For each of a plurality of past times using the performance data and the meteorological sea state data, the ship in the case where the ship has navigated to bring the value indicated by the variable data to the route using the time as the departure time. A process for calculating a value relating to two variables or a value indicating fuel consumption required for the navigation;
And a process for calculating a statistical value of a value relating to the second variable or a value indicating fuel consumption calculated for each of a plurality of past times.
On the computer,
The relationship between the first variable correlating with the navigation speed and the second variable correlating with the fuel consumption per unit time when the ship navigates under the environment for each of a plurality of meteorological conditions Processing to obtain performance data;
For each of a plurality of past periods, a process for obtaining meteorological sea state data indicating each weather sea state of one or more sea areas at the time period;
A process of acquiring variable data indicating a specified value related to the first variable when the ship navigates a route passing through the one or more sea areas;
For each of a plurality of past times using the performance data and the meteorological sea state data, the ship in the case where the ship has navigated to bring the value indicated by the variable data to the route using the time as the departure time. A process for calculating a value relating to two variables or a value indicating fuel consumption required for the navigation;
A computer-readable recording that continuously records a program for executing a process of calculating a statistical value of a value relating to the second variable or a value indicating fuel consumption calculated for each of a plurality of past times Medium.
On the computer,
The relationship between the first variable correlating with the navigation speed and the second variable correlating with the fuel consumption per unit time when the ship navigates under the environment for each of a plurality of meteorological conditions Processing to obtain performance data;
For each of a plurality of past periods, a process for obtaining meteorological sea state data indicating each weather sea state of one or more sea areas at the time period;
Processing for obtaining variable data indicating a specified value for the second variable when the ship navigates a route that passes through the one or more sea areas;
For each of a plurality of past times using the performance data and the meteorological sea state data, the ship in the case where the ship has navigated to bring the value indicated by the variable data to the route using the time as the departure time. Processing for calculating a value relating to one variable or a value indicating the time required for the navigation;
And a process for calculating a statistical value of a value related to the first variable or a value indicating time calculated for each of a plurality of past times.
On the computer,
The relationship between the first variable correlating with the navigation speed and the second variable correlating with the fuel consumption per unit time when the ship navigates under the environment for each of a plurality of meteorological conditions Processing to obtain performance data;
For each of a plurality of past periods, a process for obtaining meteorological sea state data indicating each weather sea state of one or more sea areas at the time period;
Processing for obtaining variable data indicating a specified value for the second variable when the ship navigates a route that passes through the one or more sea areas;
For each of a plurality of past times using the performance data and the meteorological sea state data, the ship in the case where the ship has navigated to bring the value indicated by the variable data to the route using the time as the departure time. Processing for calculating a value relating to one variable or a value indicating the time required for the navigation;
A computer-readable recording medium for continuously recording a program for executing a process for calculating a value related to the first variable or a statistical value indicating a time calculated for each of a plurality of past times.