WO2016028115A1 - Business planning method for supporting business plan management - Google Patents

Abstract

A business planning method by a business plan management support system of the present invention comprises a business planning step of setting a business target and establishing a budget plan and a budget supply plan for accomplishing the business target by using business foundation data including basic company information wherein, in order to accomplish the set business target, a budget is established and a resource of a company is distributed so as to perform a simulation, and the result of the performed simulation and the result of an actually performed business plan are compared such that a budget establishment and a distribution plan can be re-planned, thereby providing an effect of efficiently establishing a business plan for efficiently accomplishing the business target.

Description

Management Plan Method for Management Plan Management Support

The present invention relates to management plan management support, and more particularly, to establish a management plan including a short-term or mid- to long-term budget or a management plan to verify the adequacy of a management goal and to achieve a set management goal. Management plan method for management plan management support.

In general, report-based corporate management consulting is not only difficult to guarantee the reliability of the consulting results, but also has limited limitations in one-time consulting and inefficient response to rapidly changing management conditions.

In order to overcome these limitations, the present inventor can provide objective and standardized consulting results by linking IT and consulting technologies to ensure the reliability of consulting results, and to disclose technologies that can efficiently respond to rapidly changing business conditions in Korea. Patent No. 10-2010-0138232 (December 31, 2010).

Korea Patent Registration No. 10-1230007 deals with the problem of strategic decision-making related to business and finance, but in decision-making for corporate management, it is not only the problem of strategic decision-making related to business and finance, but also the operational intention of product production capacity. Decision problems are also an important factor.

Accordingly, Korean Patent Registration No. 10-1230008 analyzes the operational decision-making problem for operational decision-making and the strategic decision-making problem for strategic decision-making and evaluates the feasibility of the individual business. Create business-wide business portfolios, analyze them, and implement them to select the optimal company-wide business portfolio to provide objective and structured corporate management consulting to ensure reliability in operational and strategic decision-making. We have launched a management decision support system that enables us to respond effectively to management conditions.

However, even when the optimal enterprise portfolio is selected by the above-mentioned prior arts and a scenario for achieving management goals is established, a formal support system for establishing a budget and appropriately evaluating and reestablishing the budget is established. There was a problem that it is not equipped to effectively achieve the goal of the selected scenario.

Therefore, the present invention is to solve the above-mentioned problems of the prior art, and establishes a management goal using the business portfolio established by strategic decision and management decision, the endogenous and exogenous variables of the company, and the performance data, After establishing a budget and budget procurement plan to achieve the management goal, establish a plan estimation period and establish a management plan method to support the management plan management to support the management plan including budget plan, budget procurement plan and estimated period. It aims to provide.

The management plan method for the management plan management support of the present invention for achieving the above object, in the management plan method by the management plan management support system including the management plan unit, using the management basic data including the company basic information The management plan process of establishing a budget plan and a budget procurement plan for setting management goals and achieving management goals.

In addition, the management plan method for the management plan management support of the present invention, the management plan management system further includes a management basic information setting unit, so that it can be set by inputting the company basic information through the management basic information setting unit, management And a management basic information setting process of establishing a master system having management basic data composed of target information to be selected at the time of the plan; before the management plan process.

In the basic management information setting process, the company's basic information setting unit inputs the accumulated settlement information of the company, and calls and reflects the information of other system DBs such as accounting system and industry DB. A company basic information setting process for setting basic company information by inputting estimation methods; Set the business type from the company basic information, input the entire business portfolio information including all business units and items, and create a accounting account by mapping the company's COA account with a standardized estimated account, thereby establishing a company management plan. A master system setting process of establishing a master system including management basic data composed of target information to be selected in the management plan; And a plan frame basic setting process for selecting and setting an estimated period of a management plan for supporting management plan management.

The basic information setting process of the company may include an exogenous variable input process of inputting an exogenous variable related to the company so as to select exogenous variables for constructing a management plan; A settlement statement input process for receiving the settlement statement; Receives or receives financial statement data of other system DBs such as accounting system, industry DB, etc. and provides them as settlement statement information, or provides credit rating analysis for current credit rating diagnosis or future credit rating prediction. Another system DB call process that provides comparison data for confirming the position of corporate management performance by comparing and analyzing the same industry data; And estimating the performance of each estimated account so that an estimation method for each account within the estimation period and an estimation method for predicting financial results or a distribution logic for allocation can be selected for each estimated account mapped to the COA account by the master system setting process. Characterized in that it comprises a; distribution logic and estimation method input process for inputting the method or allocation logic.

The master system setting process, the industry selection process of selecting the industry of the company for the management plan; A business unit and item organization process of inputting a company / business unit / item-based portfolio to select one or more of the enterprise / business unit / item-based portfolios; And a COA estimating account selection process of mapping a code of account (COA) of the settlement statement to an estimating account for the estimated financial statements derived through the management plan.

The management plan process may include a management goal setting process for setting a management goal using the management basic data; A business portfolio selection process for selecting and setting a business portfolio to achieve a set management goal; An exogenous variable configuration process of selecting and setting exogenous variables influencing the management goal and the business portfolio; An estimation method selection process for selecting an estimation method for performance estimation and prediction of financial results for each account within the estimation period for each estimated estimation account; A budget plan process of generating a budget including a sales cost after establishing a sales plan for achieving a management goal of the selected scenario; And a budget procurement plan process for establishing a budget procurement plan for procuring the budget generated in the budget plan process.

The budget plan process, the sales plan process for analyzing the sales for achieving the management goal to establish a sales plan; Cost of sales plan for establishing a cost of sales plan for the achievement of the sales plan; A production plan process of setting a production budget for achieving the sales plan; A purchase plan process of setting a purchase budget for achieving the sales plan; A workforce plan process for setting a workforce budget for achieving the sales plan; And an other cost plan process of estimating other costs, including sales expenses, cost of sales, production, purchasing, utility expenses and general expenses, other than manpower plans, among other accounts in the income statement; It is characterized by comprising.

The budget procurement plan process may include: an asset plan process of establishing an asset plan for composing an asset of a balance sheet required for the execution of the budget plan based on the income statement; An investment plan process for establishing an investment plan and an asset disposal plan based on the balance sheet account-based asset plan; And a funding plan process for establishing a funding plan necessary for performing an asset plan, an investment plan, and an asset disposal plan based on the asset plan and the investment plan.

The asset planning process may further include establishing a budgetary procurement for a balance sheet account other than an account for which a funding plan and an investment plan are established by the funding plan process and the investment plan process.

According to the present invention having the above-described configuration, in order to verify the adequacy of the management goal, to achieve the set management goal, the budget is established and the company's resources are distributed to perform the simulation, and the simulation result and the actual management plan execution result are performed. By comparing the budgets and rescheduling the budgeting and distribution plan, it is possible to effectively establish a management plan for management plan management support to efficiently achieve the management goals.

1 is a block diagram of a management plan management support system including a management plan unit according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a detailed configuration diagram of the management basic information setting unit 100 of FIG. 1.

3 is a detailed configuration diagram of the management plan unit 200 of FIG.

4 is a detailed configuration diagram of the distribution unit 300, the scenario generation unit 350, and the scenario history management and selection unit 360 of FIG. 1.

5 is a detailed configuration diagram of the monitoring and analysis unit 400 of FIG.

Figure 6 is a flow chart showing the processing of the management plan management support method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

7 is a flowchart illustrating a detailed processing of the management basic information setting process (S100) of FIG.

8 is a flowchart illustrating a detailed processing of the management plan process (S200) of FIG.

9 is a flowchart illustrating a detailed process of the distribution process (S300), the scenario generation process (S350) and the scenario history management and selection process (S360) of FIG.

FIG. 10 is a flowchart illustrating a detailed processing of the monitoring and analyzing process S400 of FIG. 6.

11 is a perspective view of a management plan management support system including a management plan unit according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Hereinafter, with reference to the accompanying drawings showing an embodiment of the present invention will be described in more detail the present invention.

In the following description of the present invention, detailed descriptions of well-known functions or configurations will be omitted when it is deemed that they may unnecessarily obscure the subject matter of the present invention.

Embodiments according to the concept of the present invention may be variously modified and may have various forms, and specific embodiments will be illustrated in the drawings and described in detail in the present specification or application. However, this is not intended to limit the embodiments in accordance with the concept of the present invention to a particular disclosed form, it should be understood to include all changes, equivalents, and substitutes included in the spirit and scope of the present invention.

When a component is referred to as being "connected" or "connected" to another component, it may be directly connected to or connected to that other component, but it may be understood that other components may be present in between. Should be. On the other hand, when a component is said to be "directly connected" or "directly connected" to another component, it should be understood that there is no other component in between. Other expressions describing the relationship between components, such as "between" and "immediately between," or "neighboring to," and "directly neighboring to" should be interpreted as well.

The terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the invention. Singular expressions include plural expressions unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. As used herein, the terms "comprise" or "having" are intended to indicate that there is a feature, number, step, action, component, part, or combination thereof that is described, and that one or more other features or numbers are present. It should be understood that it does not exclude in advance the possibility of the presence or addition of steps, actions, components, parts or combinations thereof.

1 is a block diagram of a management plan management support system including a management plan unit according to an embodiment of the present invention, Figure 2 is a detailed configuration diagram of the management basic information setting unit 100 of Figure 1, Figure 3 1 is a detailed configuration diagram of the management plan unit 200, FIG. 4 is a detailed configuration diagram of the distribution unit 300, the scenario generation unit 350, the scenario history management and selection unit 360 of FIG. 1, and FIG. 5. 1 is a detailed configuration diagram of the monitoring and analysis unit 400 of FIG. 1, FIG. 6 is a flowchart illustrating a process of a management plan management support method according to an embodiment of the present invention, and FIG. 8 is a flowchart illustrating a detailed processing of the process S100, and FIG. 8 is a flowchart illustrating a detailed processing of the management plan process S200 of FIG. 6, and FIG. 9 is a distribution process S300 and a scenario generating process of FIG. 6. S350) and the scenario showing the detailed process of the scenario history management and selection process (S360) And FIG, 10 is a flowchart showing a detailed process of the monitoring and analysis process (S400) of Figure 6, Figure 11 is a perspective view of the management plan management support system including a management plan, according to an embodiment of the invention.

The present invention comprises a data reader 25 and a monitor 27 for reading data such as a mouse, a keyboard, a DVD, a CD, a USB, an SD card, and the like as shown in FIG. Management plan management support, which is a code that is executed on a computer, for the input / output interface unit 11 to which data input, display and output of the printer 29 and peripheral devices for performing display and output are connected and the management plan management support method of the present invention. A storage unit 13 including a hard disk storing the program 15, a memory, a register, etc., a central processing unit 17 performing arithmetic processing for the management plan management support, and a communication unit 19 communicating with the outside. It can be built as a management plan management support system (1) consisting of a main body 10 including a). In the management plan management support system having the above-described configuration, each configuration of FIG. 2 is composed of each module of the management plan management support program 15 and executed by the central processing unit 17 of the management plan management support method of FIG. 6. Since the procedure of each process is performed, the management plan management support system of FIGS. 1 to 5 and the management plan management support method of FIGS. 6 to 10 will be described together.

Management plan management including a management plan management support system and a management plan method including a management basic information setting unit 100 and a management plan unit 200 performing the management plan method of the present invention with reference to FIGS. 1 and 6. How to apply is as follows.

First, the management plan management support system, as shown in Fig. 1 and 6, the management basic information setting unit 100 to perform the management basic information setting process (S100), the management to perform the management plan process (S200) The plan unit 200, the distribution unit 300 to perform the distribution process (S300), the scenario generation unit 350 to perform the scenario generation process (S350) for generating a scenario for management plan management, the history of the generated scenario Scenario history management and selection process (S360) to manage the management and selection of a specific scenario (S360) to derive the estimated financial statements using the generated scenarios, management plan and management plan Monitoring and analysis unit 400 for performing the monitoring and analysis process (S400) for monitoring and analyzing the difference between the results of the estimation and the difference between the actual performance during the estimation period, the optimal time to derive the optimal scenario The optimal scenario selection unit 460 performing the Rio selection process (S460) and the analyzed data are fed back to the management basic information setting unit 100 and the management plan unit 200 to change the management basic information and establish a new management plan. It is configured to include a feedback unit 500 for performing a feedback process (S500) to enable.

In the above configuration, the management basic information theory process (S100) and the management plan process (S200) form the management plan method of the present invention.

In the above-described configuration, the management basic information setting unit 100, as shown in Fig. 2, to input the accumulated settlement statement information of the company, to call and reflect the information of the other system DB, the estimation method for the accounts Company basic information setting unit 110 to perform the company basic information setting process (S110) to set the company basic information by inputting them; and setting the industry type from the company basic information, including the entire business unit and items It consists of the target information to be selected in the management plan to enter the entire business portfolio information, map the COA account with the estimated account and the company's COA account with the standardized estimated account, and create an accounting account. Master system setting unit 120 to perform the master system setting process (S120) to establish a master system; and to select the estimated period of the management plan for management plan management support It is configured to include a plan frame basic setting unit 130 to perform a plan frame basic setting process (S130) to be determined.

Specifically, the company basic information setting unit 110 and an exogenous variable input unit 111 for performing an exogenous variable input process (S111) for inputting an exogenous variable related to the company so as to select exogenous variables for the management plan configuration. A settlement statement input unit 113 for performing a settlement statement input process (S113) to receive the settlement statement; and receiving or receiving financial statement data of another system and providing the settlement statement information, or present credit rating diagnosis or future Other systems that provide for the analysis of credit ratings for credit rating prediction, and provide other system DB call process (S115) as a comparison data for confirming the position of corporate management performance by comparing and analyzing data of other industries and similar industries. DB calling unit 115; and allocation logic for estimating method or allocation for performance estimation and financial result prediction for each account within the estimation period for each estimated account mapped to the COA account by the master system setting unit 120 Distribution logic and estimation method input process for inputting one or more of estimation method or allocation logic for allocation of estimated account performance And a distribution logic and estimation method input unit 117 for performing (S117).

 In addition, the company basic information setting process (S110) by the company basic information setting unit 110 through the interface screen to set or input the company basic information for the progress of the management plan management support procedure, the company name, Select or enter information such as CEO name, contact person, year of establishment, and type of business. This enables the selection of company-wide business structure, business unit structure, and items (including unit projects and projects) of the entire company, thereby creating scenarios for management plan management.

The other system DB calling unit 115 receives or receives financial statement data of another system such as QuickBooks or DUZON or data such as an accounting system or an industry statistics DB and provides the settlement statement information, and provides a current credit rating diagnosis or future Perform other system DB calling process (S115) provided as a comparison data for credit rating analysis for credit rating prediction, and as a comparison data for confirming positioning of corporate management performance by comparing and analyzing data of other industries and similar industries. It is configured to.

In addition, the master system setting unit 120, an industry type selection unit 121 for performing an industry type selection process (S121) for selecting an industry type of the company for the management plan; and a company / business unit / derived by strategic decision making A business unit and an item constitution unit 123 for performing a business unit and an item constitution process (S123) for inputting a company / business unit / item unit portfolio so as to select one or more of a portfolio of item units; and an accounting account of the statement And a COA estimating account selection unit 125 for performing a COA estimating account selection process (S125) for mapping a code of account (COA) to an estimating account for the estimated financial statements derived through the management plan.

Specifically, each configuration of the master system setting unit 120 will be described in more detail, wherein the industry type selection unit 121 is configured to perform an industry type selection process (S121) for receiving and storing industry type information. Business type selection process (S121) by the unit (S121) is a process of selecting a business type of the management plan management target scenario by selecting one or more of manufacturing, distribution, service.

The business unit and the item composition process (S123) by the business unit and the item composition unit 123 may select one or more of the portfolio of the enterprise / business unit / item unit derived by strategic decision for the item or business unit composition. As a process of receiving and storing a portfolio of business units / items, it is possible to construct a scenario for management plan management by selecting a business portfolio to be managed later in the entire business portfolio including the inputted business unit or item information.

The COA estimation account selection unit 125 is configured to map a code of account (COA) of the financial statements to an estimation account for the estimated financial statement derived through the management plan. Specifically, the COA estimation account selection unit 125 derives the estimated financial statements for the accounts included in the accumulated accounts of the company for several years by the user or automatically inputted by the settlement statement input unit 113 through the interface screen output. Map or map COA accounts to accounting accounts in estimated financial statements by matching or consolidating them into accounting accounts. This mapping allows the standardization and composition of various accounting accounts by industry, and this process becomes the COA estimated account selection process (S125).

The plan frame basic setting unit 130 may set an estimation period for estimating the management plan. The plan frame basic setting unit 130 is configured to output the interface screen to select and set the estimated period of the management plan for management plan management support, this process is the plan frame basic setting process 130 of FIG. Becomes

Endogenous variable information, exogenous variable information, company information, accumulated settlement statement information, other system DB information, allocation logic or estimation methodology information, and master system setting unit input by the company basic information setting unit 110 as described above. Business basic information includes information including industry information set and inputted by 120, overall business portfolio information derived by strategic decision making, estimated account information mapped to COA accounts, and estimated period information for estimating management plans. It constitutes basic management data.

Next, the management plan unit 200 performs a management plan process (S200) of FIG. 8, establishes and distributes a management plan including a management goal, a business portfolio, a budget plan for achieving the management goal, and a budget procurement plan. It is configured as shown in FIG. 3 to output to 300.

Specifically, as shown in FIGS. 3 and 8, the management plan unit 200 includes a management goal setting unit 210 for setting a management goal using the management basic data through a management goal setting process S210; The business portfolio selection unit 215 for selecting and setting the business portfolio to achieve the management target set by the business portfolio selection process (S215) and the exogenous variable composition process (S220) affect the management target and the business portfolio. The exogenous variable constitution unit 220 for selecting an exogenous variable having a deterministic value, and an estimating method for estimating performance for each account within the estimation period and estimating financial results within the estimated period for each estimated account estimated by the estimation method selection process S230. After estimating the selection method 230 for selecting and the sales plan for achieving the management target of the selected scenario, generating a budget including the cost of sales Budget procurement plan for performing budget planning process (S250) and budget procurement plan (S250) for establishing a budget procurement plan for procuring the budget generated by the budget plan unit (240). It is configured to include a portion (250).

The management plan process (S200) including the management goal setting process (S210), exogenous variable configuration process (S220), estimation method selection process (S230), budget plan process (S240) and budget procurement plan process (S250). Achieve.

Each configuration of the management plan unit 200 will be described in more detail.

The management goal setting unit 210 is configured to set the management goal by using the accumulated accounting information of the financial statements by performing the management goal setting process (S210). In detail, the management target setting unit 210 sets a sales target, a net profit target, a cash holding target, a debt ratio reduction target, a target corporate value, and the like, to achieve the management target through an output interface screen. At this time, the target is set by using the cumulative settlement statement information and other system DB information of the company input from the management basic information setting unit 100.

As a specific method of setting the above-described management objectives, it may be set as a company-based historical trend and an industry-based industry average or CEO's will goal. In this case, the target of the management target may be set as the sales target, the net profit target, the cash holding target, the debt ratio reduction target, and the target corporate value.

As described above, after the core management objectives are established, it is possible to specifically set sales targets, net profit targets, cash holding targets, debt ratio reduction targets, target corporate values, and the like, to achieve the management targets. In addition, the company's sales targets, net profit targets, cash holdings, debt ratio reduction targets, target company value estimates, and target unit allocation can be performed. In addition, the target for cash and external financing needs is set based on the previous year's performance. In addition, when the performance data on which the established management plan is executed is updated, the next budget is configured to reflect the gap with the target. Besides. It is designed to carry out market performance benchmarking performance and to verify the validity of setting management goals. Validation of the management goal setting is made through a comparative analysis on past performance or industry average. The process performed by the above-described management goal setting unit 210 becomes a management goal setting process (S210). By performing such management goal setting process (S210), it is verified whether the goal is achieved and the validity of the business strategy. To verify

The business portfolio selection unit 215 outputs a list of business portfolios stored by the management basic information setting process (S100) by the management basic information setting unit 100 so as to select business portfolios for achieving management goals. It is configured to perform a portfolio selection process (S215).

The exogenous variable configuration unit 220 selects exogenous variables that affect management in relation to the management target and the business portfolio among the exogenous variables among the management basic information data set in the management basic information setting unit 100 to estimate the management plan. It is configured to perform an exogenous variable configuration process (S220) to be reflected in.

The estimation method selection unit 230 is configured to select a method for performance estimation and financial result prediction for each account within the estimation period for each estimated account of the estimated financial statements. The estimating method of the estimating method selection unit 230 is estimating modeling, and the distribution logic and estimating method input of the estimating logic and estimating method input unit 117 in the process of setting management basic information by the management basic information setting unit 100 (S100). It is configured to select the corresponding estimation method (estimation methodology) among the estimation methods input through the process (S117), to determine and provide the selected estimation method as a default value. Small companies, such as small and medium-sized companies, can use the proper estimation method and prediction model provided by the system even if the general estimation methodology is applied. On the other hand, if a sophisticated estimation methodology is required for the company's characteristics, it can be modeled for each profit and loss account and applied to the system. In this case, there is a way for software engineers to apply modeling to the system, and in large enterprises, system users and consultants can apply modeling to the system directly with or without some support from the software engineer. It may be. This processing becomes the estimation method selection process (S230) of FIG. 6.

The budget plan unit 240 mainly estimates an income statement account, a sales plan unit 241 for analyzing the sales for achieving the management goal and establishing a sales plan, and a cost of sales plan for achieving the sales plan unit. Cost of production plan unit 242 to establish, the production plan unit 243 for setting the production budget according to the cost of sales plan unit, the purchase plan unit 244 for setting the purchase budget according to the cost of sales plan 242 and A manpower plan unit 245 for setting a manpower budget for achieving the sales plan, and a miscellaneous cost plan unit for setting up other expenses related to sales of the handbook in addition to the cost of sales, production cost, purchase cost, and manpower costs. It characterized in that it is configured to include. The budget plan establishment process of the budget plan unit 240 is the budget plan process S240 of FIG. 6, and the budget plan process S240 by the budget plan unit 240 is performed based on the income statement account. It is characterized by.

In detail, the sales plan unit 241 estimates sales by applying one or more of a top down approach, a bottom up approach, and a weighted average. In addition, we estimate the player's profit for the estimation of the turnover of the accounts receivable and the player's turnover for the player's profit. In some cases, the accounts receivable and the player's profit may be reflected as checks instead of cash.

The top down approach estimates sales by separated units by dividing them into domestic / company / items (selectable) domestic and overseas countries or total global sales. Estimated sales are entered monthly.

Domestic sales from the top-down approach are estimated by the following steps.

First, estimate the total market size, estimate the current month's GDP based on the previous month's GDP * (1+ growth rate), and then estimate the market size by entering the market ratio to GDP. Second, we estimate the total market quantity * unit price by applying the price * quantity method. Third, we estimate the total market size by weighted average of the first and second methods, and estimate the sales by entering the company's share as ()% of the total market size. Fourth, we can apply trends using past results when estimating domestic sales. Fifth, similar industry statistics can be applied to revenue estimates.

Overseas sales or total overseas sales by country of entry are also estimated using five methods.

First, estimate the size of the global market and estimate the total overseas sales by multiplying the unit price by the quantity. Second, we estimate foreign sales by unit price * quantity * F / X (foreign exchange) by applying the exchange rate to the size of the global market. Third, the company's overseas sales are estimated by entering the company's market share as ()% of the global market size. Even in this case, trend estimation and similar industry statistics using historical results, such as domestic sales, can be used. In the case of overseas sales by country of entry, sales are estimated by applying five methods in a manner similar to the overall overseas sales.

The Bottom Up Approach estimates the sales by divided into domestic and overseas sales by company / company / item (selectable).

Domestic sales by the bottom-up approach is estimated by entering the sales plan, quantity, unit price plan. Overseas revenue is estimated by applying sales plan, quantity, unit price plan, and estimated exchange rate. The company's sales are then estimated by summing up domestic and overseas sales.

The weighted average method is a method of estimating average sales by assigning weights to the top-down approach and the bottom-up approach, respectively.

The sales plan establishment process by the sales plan unit 241 becomes the sales plan process S241 of FIG. 6.

The cost of sales plan unit 242 estimates the cost of sales, purchase debt, and inventory. Cost of sales is estimated by estimating the unit price of cost based on the company's previous sales or the ratio of cost of sales to the sales of the same kind of oil / liquid business, and entering the unit price and quantity in the formula of unit price * quantity. Trade payables are estimated using cost of sales / turnover of trade payables. Inventory is estimated by cost of sales / inventory turnover. In the case of cost-of-sale plans, the top-down approach or the bottom-up approach is applied selectively or in combination, as is the sales plan sales estimate. The estimated cost of sales includes production costs, purchasing costs and manpower costs. The cost of sales estimation process of the cost of sales plan unit 242 becomes the cost of sales plan of FIG. 6 (S242).

The production plan unit 243, in the case of the manufacturing industry, is connected with the purchase plan unit so as to perform the cost estimating, process leakage management of production and purchase. In detail, the production plan unit 243 estimates the operation rate (operating days), the basic inventory, the appropriate inventory, and the production coefficient. And each is estimated according to the raw material-semi-finished-finished product process. In this case, the semifinished product can have several stages, depending on the complexity of the process. In addition, the amount of production available is estimated according to investment plans such as capacity, maintenance, sale, and expansion of the plant. After that, the processing costs such as raw material costs, subsidiary materials costs, and electricity costs are rolled up. Routing activity and bill of materials (BOM) are also estimated.

The process of establishing the above-described production plan is the production plan process (S243) of FIG. 6.

The purchase plan unit 244 establishes a purchase plan (distribution plan) for cost reduction through prior cost estimation, purchase diversification management, and purchase structure optimization. This purchasing plan is directly linked to the production plan in the manufacturing industry and directly to the sales plan in the non-manufacturing industry. Specifically, the purchase plan for each unit of sales is input on a monthly basis on the interface screen, or it is estimated by calculation processing using data set in the management basic information setting unit 100 and data set in the sales plan unit or the production plan unit. Link. The purchase plan for each sales unit is a plan for outsourcing for services, goods for logistics, and raw materials for manufacturing. It also estimates the quantity related to purchase quantity and inventory. The inventory estimates basic inventory, ending inventory, purchase volume, and shipment volume, and estimates future appropriate inventory, including the present, using the gap between ending inventory and past appropriate inventory. Estimated future inventories, including the present, estimate the requirements of materials and raw and subsidiary materials using manager's experience or industry average inventory data, and in this case, identify and apply purchasing patterns considering seasonal effects. Develop a plan for suppliers, items, quantity purchased and unit cost. Selective planning for mass purchase and purchase diversification. Estimate cash flows from operating activities, taking into account the impact of credit purchases, deposit planning schedules, and check usage. In addition, we estimate the payment terms for each account. The estimated purchase plan reflects the inventory management policy. The process of establishing such a purchase plan becomes the purchase plan process (S244) of FIG. 6.

The manpower plan unit 245 inputs a manpower input plan by sales unit on the output interface screen, inputs labor cost expenses such as annual salary (labor cost), and the number of people by position / cost center / position In other words, a manpower plan can be established by entering a man hour. It also chooses direct and overhead costs. Production personnel are included in manufacturing costs and sales organization personnel are included in SG & A plans. As such, the workforce plan is established, and the process of establishing such a workforce plan is the workforce plan process (S245) of FIG. 6.

The other cost plan unit 247 estimates utility expenses and general expenses other than sales, cost of goods, production, purchasing, and manpower plans among the accounts of the income statement. Even in this case, when inputting quantity, unit price, and exchange rate information, the cost of each other account is estimated by the formula of quantity * unit price * F / X. The depreciation cost of the factory facility is the manufacturing cost, and the depreciation cost of the office is estimated to be a SG & A account. The other cost plan establishment process by the other cost plan unit 247 is the other cost plan process (S247) of FIG. These other cost plans are calculated by estimating the total cost of other companies based on the ratio of the company's past sales or the ratio of sales of the same type of business.

The budget procurement plan 250 is an asset plan unit 251 that establishes an asset plan for composing assets of a balance sheet, such as equipment and inventory, necessary for the execution of the budget plan based on the income statement account. Implementation of an asset plan, an investment plan and an asset disposal plan based on the investment plan unit 253, the asset plan unit 251, and the investment plan unit 253, which establish an investment plan and an asset disposal plan based on the asset plan of the company. It is configured to include a funding plan unit 255 for establishing a funding plan necessary for.

The asset plan unit 251 establishes an asset plan for composing balance sheet assets, such as fixed assets such as equipment, inventory assets, and current assets such as trade receivables, based on the income statement account. This is the asset plan process (S251) of FIG. The asset planning process S251 may further include a process of establishing budgeting for a balance sheet account other than an account for which a funding plan and an investment plan are established by the funding plan process and the investment plan process.

The investment plan unit 253 inputs an investment plan, an asset disposal gain and loss, and an asset disposal plan reflecting an asset triangular profit and loss account, and selects an investment asset type and useful life on an output interface screen. After inputting investment cost, monthly, project, WBS (Work Breakdown Structure), currency investment, sale amount, asset replacement time, financial asset amount, payment amount, income interest, dividend, investment amount, disposal amount, capital expenditure , Depreciation, construction value accounts, and asset substitutions are estimated.

The estimation of tangible and intangible assets is made by extracting the existing intangible assets from the disposal value and book value accounts of the balance sheet and entering the acquisition value and the depreciable useful life.

The depreciation cost estimate is derived from the depreciation of existing intangible assets using the equation of `` tangible assets * depreciation rate '' in the balance sheet account, and the depreciation expense of the new intangible assets is estimated using the expression `` acquisition value / useful life ''.

Loss on disposal gains are estimated by (disposal of existing intangible assets – book value).

The process of establishing the investment plan as described above is the investment plan process (S253) of FIG.

When the funding plan unit 255 selects a company-wide borrowing type through an interface screen and a borrowing plan is input, existing or new, short-term or long-term borrowings are based on the balance, repayment and interest account of the balance sheet (BS). Estimated and deficit funds are constructed. Specifically, when Minimum Cash Required is entered in the form of sales or inventory, etc., and maximum short term Debt is entered, the short-term borrowings entered in Borrowing needed are deducted. The required new long term debt is estimated. Equity capital is estimated by reflecting net profit and dividend form. The process of estimating borrowings and equity capital by the fund raising plan unit 255 becomes the fund raising plan process (S255) of FIG.

The distribution unit 300 is configured to perform a distribution process (S300) of dividing and distributing enterprise resources including common and indirect costs for the execution of the management plan.

To this end, the distribution unit 300 includes a distribution logic selection unit 310 and a distribution logic operation unit 320 as shown in FIG. 4, and a distribution process S300 and a distribution logic operation process S320 as shown in FIG. 9. Do this.

The allocation logic selection unit 310 selects a preset distribution logic for the IS (profit statement) / BS (balance sheet) / CF (cash flow statement) for each company / division / item on the output interface screen. The distribution logic is inputted in advance by the distribution logic and estimation method input unit 117 and then outputted for the user to select. At this time, the additional allocation logic may be configured to be input if necessary. At this time, each allocation is applied to the management accounting basis, not to the financial accounting standard. The allocation logic for overhead and in-house interests, common assets, liabilities and capital (including internal transactions) is selected. As a result, profit and loss calculations are managed by product and by customer by organization. This distribution logic selection is the distribution logic selection process (S310) of FIG. 6.

The distribution logic operation unit 320 distributes the assets, liabilities, capital, and indirect costs of the income statement of the balance sheet selected by the distribution logic selection unit for each company, business unit, and item. Derivation of the above-described account distribution is the distribution logic operation process (S320) of FIG.

The distribution derived by performing the distribution logic selection process (S310) and the distribution logic operation process (S320) by the distribution logic selection unit 310 and the distribution logic operation unit 320 described above clarify the performance management for each responsibility unit, and in the future To predict management performance and establish BS-based segment accounting. The numerator of an entity's performance indicators usually consists of an income statement account, and the denominator a balance sheet account. Allocation Logic supports the analysis and evaluation of the income statement and the balance sheet, not the performance analysis and evaluation based on the company's income statement. Therefore, it is simple to analyze and evaluate the profitability of the income statement against the assets that make up the balance sheet. In addition to the difference between profitability and profitability, it has the advantage of analyzing and evaluating the profitability performance compared to the administration assets taking into account the assets administered to achieve profitability. Therefore, it is possible to analyze and evaluate the responsibility management performance of each accounting unit more directly.

The scenario generation unit 350 of FIG. 4 includes a business portfolio, an item or a business unit input by the business unit and the item constitution unit 123, and a budget plan for achieving a management goal including the management goal and the management plan estimation period. And the budget procurement plan and distribution information to perform the scenario generation process (S350) of FIGS. 6 and 9 to generate a scenario for performing a management plan.

The above scenarios include forecasting external environments such as macroeconomic indicators, contingencies, and life cycles of industries, and setting strategic goals according to them, organizing business units / items for management plans to achieve strategic goals, sales plans, cost of sales plans, and investment plans. Internal stakeholders' needs such as external stakeholders such as credit rating agencies / government tax reporting / investors, executives, representatives, and representatives, including implementation plans for estimation and execution of budget procurement plans to achieve strategic goals. It may also include a discriminatory management plan that reflects this, and may include timing of management plan estimation and analysis.

As described above, in general, the scenario is a change in sales according to the external environment and the life cycle of the industry. However, scenarios can also arise in terms of internal response management to changes in the external environment. At this time, the representative scenario of internal response management is business portfolio.

Depending on the company, scenarios are created for each company, division, and item (project) to derive estimated financial statements for setting sales targets and action plans for achieving sales targets.

Therefore, the scenario generation process (S350) by the scenario generator 350 allows input of a scenario registration, a scenario name, and a scenario description through an interface screen, and an estimation period for deriving an estimated financial statement for a management goal. Generates scenario information by receiving. At this time, the multi-dimensional scenario can be generated by selecting and including information on sales, business, purchase, and production combination set by the management goal setting unit 210. In addition, it is possible to derive various outlook results by constructing multifaceted scenarios by multifaceted composition of each plan area.

The scenario generation process will be described in detail. First, a situation scenario pool for each industry is configured. Then select a scenario from the scenario pool. Configure scenario variables for the selected scenario. External operating environment variables such as exchange rate, interest rate, or oil price that affect the increase or decrease of cost of sales such as market, market share, sales volume, selling price, etc. Scenario variables including the combination is configured. The accounts affected by the scenario variables are then selected by selecting the financial statement accounts affected by the external management environment variables and the variables of the contingency variables. Next, we set the baseline values such as 5 scales for pessimism and optimism for the selected accounts to estimate the influence on the selected accounts for each scenario variable. The impact level of the impact account for each scenario variable is arranged by year and month with reference to each scale reference value. Independent of scenario variables, industry-specific lifecycle stages are set and deployed by year / month. The industry-specific life cycle may be classified into an introduction stage, a growth stage, a mature stage, and a decline stage. Then set the impact level (level) for each impact account that is affected by the stage of the industry-specific lifecycle. The influence may be composed of low, medium, and high. Next, the impact value is derived using the statistical data of each industry.

Scenarios including the above-described configuration may be generated to configure and utilize separate scenarios in response to requests by external stakeholders for government, accounting and tax reporting, credit rating agency submission, and investor submission.

In addition, for the preparation of the source plan of the practitioner, for the management of executives and divisional executives such as sales / production / purchasing Separate scenarios for in-house management can be created and utilized, such as scenarios to control and guide them against their intended scenarios.

In the case of the external stakeholders or scenarios for internal management, the exogenous variable value, allocation logic or estimation method may vary according to each purpose.

The result value of the scenario is calculated by applying the accounting estimation method that reflects the impact degree of each impact account linked to the scenario by reflecting the scenario variables and the inputted impact by year / month for each life cycle. A simulation result is derived. In addition, estimated financial statements for each scenario are derived and used to monitor and analyze the scenario.

In addition, the configuration of the scenario can be made multi-dimensional in addition to the business portfolio, a plurality of scenarios are derived at the same time to compare with each other to analyze the differentiation of the scenario. Afterwards, it is possible to derive an optimization alternative by selecting the comparative advantage of the execution plan (alternative) that bridges the gap between the optimal scenario formation and the performance against the target.

The scenario history management and selection unit 360 of FIG. 4 manages the history of the scenarios generated as described above, and selects a scenario for estimating estimated financial statement accounts for management plan management support. It is configured to perform the scenario history management and selection process (S360). In other words, the generated scenarios are stored and managed in a folder structure in a tree structure, and later, a specific scenario can be selected to re-estimate the management plan, and the scenario can be modified by modifying the management basic data, management plan, and distribution. It is also possible.

The financial outlook simulation simulation unit 370 of FIG. 5 derives an estimated financial statement for the estimated period using the management basic information, the management target, the sales plan, the budget plan, the budget procurement plan, and the distribution information of the generated scenario. 6 and 10 is configured to perform the financial calculation simulation process (S370).

Specifically, the financial prospecting simulation unit 370 is based on the management basis information, management target, sales plan, budget plan, budget procurement plan, allocation information of the generated scenarios, income statement, balance sheet and cash of the financial statement The financial forecasting unit (371), which performs the financial forecasting operation (S371) for estimating account values as the performance of the management plan during the estimation period, for the designated account in the flow chart, the income statement and the balance based on the estimated accounts And an estimated financial statement derivation unit 373 that performs an estimated financial statement derivation process (S373) for estimating the entire account of the checklist and the cash flow statement.

Each configuration is described in more detail as follows.

The financial prospecting operation part 371 calculates and generates each account of the estimated financial statements by selecting the estimation logic internalized in each plan part output on the interface screen. That is, based on the input management basic information for selecting the estimation logic of each plan unit and the plan information of each plan unit, the calculation engine mounted in the system automatically performs the estimation operation for each account in the estimated financial statement to estimate the above-mentioned estimation. The process of calculating and estimating the value of the estimated account set for achieving the management goal in the income statement, the balance sheet, and the cash flow statement in the financial statement is the financial prospecting process (S371) of FIG. 6.

The estimated financial statement derivation unit 373 is an engine for deriving the entire accounts of the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow statement using estimated values of the estimated accounts set to achieve the management goal in the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow statement. It is implemented and built.

The derivation process of the entire account of the income statement, the balance sheet, and the cash flow statement for deriving the estimated financial statements is as follows.

1) Income statement (IS) is estimated by each model.

At this time, interest expenses on new borrowings are later covered by circular logic.

2) The balance sheet (BS) is primarily inferred based on one or more of the sales or cost of sales of the IS.

In other words, ① changes in balance sheet asset accounts such as equipment assets, inventory assets, and trade receivables for operating activities are anticipated, and changes in current liabilities such as trade payables in balance sheet liabilities accounts. Fixed liabilities reflect borrowing plans entered in accordance with the type of borrowings, and in the case of equity capital, capital increases and decreases according to the increase or decrease of net income of IS.

Along with this, the increase in the amount of new investment costs due to the increase in the amount of equipment assets, inventory, trade receivables, and trade payables for fluctuating business activities in line with sales growth and depreciation increases the existing borrowing plans and net profits. When not enough, new debt and equity should be increased. This is done by reflecting the estimated results of the cash flow statement.

3) Estimation of Cash Flow Statement (CF)

CF is handled in connection with ① in cash flows from CF's operating activities and ② in cash flows from CF's investment activities.

In addition, cash outflows are generated in accordance with the repayment schedule of external borrowings held by the company, which appears as cash flows from financial activities.

Cash flows from financing activities include: ① cash flows from CF's operating activities, ② cash flows from CF's investment activities, and balances, repayments, interest accounts of existing or new, short-term or long-term borrowings. Based on this estimate, shortage funds are derived. Specifically, when Minimum Cash Required is entered in the form of sales or inventory, etc., and maximum short term Debt is entered, the short-term borrowings entered in Borrowing needed are deducted. New long term debt and equity capital required are estimated.

If the cash flows into or out of the company are surplus cash flows, no additional new borrowings or capital increase are necessary, but if insufficient cash flows occur, new loans or capital increase are necessary. In particular, if a new borrowing occurs, it incurs an interest cost for the new borrowing in the IS, and it is necessary to generate a new borrowing of CF as much as the increased interest cost, and thus a circular logic in which additional interest costs are generated. . In this process, the increase of new borrowings in BS debt account is also driven by circular logic.

Based on the structure and logic of the estimated financial statements, the results and inputs calculated by the IS-specific model, the results calculated by the BS-specific model, and the cash flows from the CF's financial activities. If repayment size and schedule are entered, estimated financial statements are automatically calculated and derived. Therefore, the calculation of estimated financial statements in which IS, BS, and CF are linked is based on the characteristics of each company. Regardless of the specific estimation model of the debt account, it is characterized by calculating the estimated financial statements linked to IS, BS, and CF based on the estimated result value. In other words, the type of business, sales, cost, and profit structure to which the company belongs is reflected in the above financial calculation process, and the estimated financial statement derivation process uses the account information estimated by the financial outlook calculation process. Regardless of the structure, it is characterized by deriving the estimated financial statements by estimating the accounts of the income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement.

The logic of circular reference can be broken by executing the number of repetitions in which the IS, BS, and CF are fully formed as described above, or by setting the number of times only enough to cover the interest cost incurred when the first new borrowing occurs.

The characteristic of the estimated financial statement derivation unit 373 composed of the estimated financial statement calculation engine is not limited to one estimated financial statement calculation linked to IS, BS, and CF, but calculation of two or more estimated financial statements. Applies to In this case, the verification of the estimated financial statements for two or more consecutive statements is verified by whether the sum of the asset account and the debit liabilities and equity of the balance sheet for two consecutive periods coincide.

Estimated financial statements are the foundation of the company's business performance and financial management. Therefore, the estimated financial statement calculation engine is the core engine of the company's business performance and financial management.

In other words, the estimated financial statement derivation unit 373 uses the account information of the estimated financial statement estimated by the financial prospecting operation unit 371 to calculate the company's (business) / business unit / items (income statement) / BS (balance sheet). After deriving the checklist) / CF (cash flow statement), store it separately for each minimum unit. In this process, the estimated financial statements are derived in real time by setting up the CEO, business unit, sales organization, and high utilization of funds, and by structurally linking the management plan. In this process, the estimated financial statements can be derived for each scenario generated by the scenario generator without regard to short-term or mid- to long-term. In addition, if a single project is entered into the scenario, business feasibility is estimated. If entered on a business unit basis, business unit performance is forecasted. And the transcription performance is predicted at the time of transcription input.

The derivation process of the estimated financial statements is the process of deriving the estimated financial statements of FIG. 6 (S373). The above-mentioned estimated financial statement derivation process (S373) enables the optimization of management plan and budget management, calculation of management plan and total budget, establishment of short-term monthly management plan, and prediction of future management performance based on scenarios.

The financial prospecting operation (S371) of the financial prospecting operation unit (S371) and the estimated financial statement derivation process (S373) of the estimated financial statement deriving unit (373) become a financial prospecting operation simulation process (S370).

The monitoring and analysis unit 400 of FIGS. 1 and 5 compares the management performance estimated by the estimated financial statements with the actual management performance during the estimation period, and analyzes the difference between the management plan and the actual performance. It is configured to perform the monitoring and analysis process (S400).

To this end, the monitoring and analysis unit 400, the estimation performance analysis unit 420 for comparing the management performance estimated by the estimated financial statement derivation unit 373 and the actual management performance during the estimation period, and the estimation performance Estimation performance evaluation unit 430 and the estimation performance analysis unit for generating evaluation information on the estimation performance by analyzing the credit rating and funding costs by comparing the financial ratio information derived from the analysis unit 420 and the actual management performance information The financing simulation unit 440 and the estimated financial statement derivation unit 373, which output the improved financing plan after performing financing simulation to reduce the difference in financing setting analyzed in The enterprise value calculation government 450 for calculating the enterprise value based on the analysis data of the estimating performance analysis unit and the information on the analysis of the credit rating and the financing cost analyzed by the estimating performance evaluation unit. Based on the estimated data of the financial statement deriving unit 373, the estimated performance analysis unit 420, and the enterprise value information, the risk of sensitivity and the risk-by-scenario of the risk return are analyzed and the optimal management scenario is derived. It is configured to include an optimal scenario selection unit 460 to select.

The estimation performance analysis unit 420 analyzes the difference between the management target and the management plan to grasp the adequacy of the management plan for the management target, and analyzes the difference between the management plan and the actual performance to derive the cause of the difference. Analysis unit 421, Break-even point (BEP) analysis unit 422 that derives break-even points through variable cost and fixed cost analysis, Cost analysis unit to analyze the costs for achieving business targets, including manufacturing, distribution, and services (423), the business feasibility analysis unit (424), which derives business feasibility evaluation indicators for business feasibility evaluation and business feasibility priorities, determines one or more of profitability, growth, stability, and activity indicators based on the estimated financial statements. Financial ratio analysis section 425 analyzes financial ratios by deriving the financial ratio indicators included and liquidity gaps deriving liquidity gaps by deriving shortfalls from estimated cash flow statements It is configured to include a unit 426 to perform the estimation performance analysis process (S420).

The performance gap analysis unit 421 is configured to analyze the difference in the overall COA account, such as revenue, cost, revenue, cost, assets, liabilities, cash flows. The performance gap analysis department compares several management plans for achieving management goals and selects the management plan that is considered most suitable for achieving the management goals as the budget plan or master scenario. This budget plan or master scenario should remain unchanged on the output screen (although the budget plan and master scenario may change according to future replanning).

The performance gap analysis unit 421 derives and analyzes the difference between the management target and the management plan for each scenario in the master scenario for the budget, so as to determine the appropriateness of the plan against the target. And the difference between the estimation result of the management plan selected as the master scenario and the performance by the performance during the estimation period is analyzed and extracted. This allows target setting and financial forecasting. Intuitively verify financial feasibility and improve management plan accuracy. In addition, short-term execution management can be performed and long-term goal management can be performed in connection with it. In addition, it is possible to identify and correct the underperformance factors. At this time, the detail factor is analyzed by drill down method. It also allows you to check your achievement against your performance goals. As described above, the overall comparative analysis process of the management target, the management plan for each scenario, and the actual management performance during the estimation period becomes the performance gap analysis process (S421) of FIG. 6.

The break-even point analysis unit 422 derives a break-even point for analyzing the variable and fixed costs of the estimated financial statements to determine how many items the company needs to sell to achieve the target profit. As such, the process of deriving the break-even point becomes the break-even point (BEP) analysis process (S422) of FIG. 6.

The cost analysis unit 423 calculates an average revenue per unit (ARPU) using the account of the estimated financial statements, matches the purchase cost of sales, outsourcing costs, products, raw materials, etc. It is configured to calculate operating profit for each item and to derive unit cost in the case of manufacturing industry. When the standard unit cost is derived by the above-described configuration, it is possible to establish a cost target that manages to minimize the difference between the actual cost incurred when the company actually produces or distributes the item. This cost estimation process is the cost analysis process (S423) of FIG.

The business feasibility analysis unit 424 uses a estimated financial statement to return a return on asset (ROE), a return on asset (ROA), an internal rate of return (IRR), a net present value (NPV), and a modified internal rate of MIRR. It is configured to derive business feasibility priorities for scenarios through business feasibility analysis indicators such as Return, Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR), and Profitability Index (PI). In other words, mid- to long-term financial projections can be performed using the cash flow statement of the estimated financial statements. In addition, the results of the project feasibility assessment allow re-planning to carry out follow-up management of the project feasibility. In addition, the company-wide financial forecasts for new businesses will be evaluated and the business feasibility of the combination of the company-wide existing business portfolio and the new business portfolio or new business portfolio will be evaluated. In other words, the business feasibility analysis unit 424 is configured to perform business feasibility verification, investment type diversification, business diversification, overseas business integration management, and financial feasibility verification of management strategies for each scenario.

Derivation of business feasibility priorities based on scenario-specific business feasibility analysis, mid- to long-term financial projections, replanning, evaluation of company-wide financial projections of new business, and combination of existing and new business portfolios. The business feasibility assessment process, the business feasibility verification of the scenario (or management plan), investment type diversification, business diversification, overseas business integration management, financial feasibility verification of the management strategy, etc. (S425).

The financial ratio analysis process (S425) is configured to analyze the profitability, growth, stability, activity indicators based on the results of the estimated financial statements. The analysis of profitability indicators is based on the formulas such as sales operating margin, net profit margin, gross margin (sales margin), equity return, total asset return, and investment return. The analysis of stability indicators is carried out using formulas such as current ratio, quick ratio, cash ratio, debt ratio, borrowing dependence, interest compensation ratio, cash compensation ratio, financial cost burden ratio, non-current liquidity ratio, and equity capital ratio. Activity indicator analysis calculates total asset turnover, trade receivable turnover, trade receivable turnover, inventory turnover, inventory turnover, trade payable turnover, trade payable turnover, equity turnover, long-term operating asset turnover, net working capital turnover, etc. The formula is applied. Growth index analysis is based on formulas such as sales growth, operating profit growth, net profit growth, and total asset growth. The analysis of productivity indicators uses formulas such as value added rate and value added per capita. The result of analyzing the financial ratio as described above may be provided as a decision index. The index analysis process for the financial ratio is the financial ratio analysis process (S425) of FIG.

The liquidity gap derivation unit 426 is configured to derive a deficiency fund from the estimated cash flow statement of the estimated financial statements. In other words, it reflects ALM (Asset Liability Management), which is a process of deriving the gap between the minimum cash required, the duration of operating assets, and the duration of short-term liabilities. Deriving shortfall funds. The derivation process of the deficiency fund is the liquidity gap derivation process (S426) of FIG.

The performance gap analysis process (S421), the breakeven point (BEP) analysis process (S422), the cost analysis process (S423), the business feasibility analysis process (S424), the financial by the estimation performance analysis unit 420 A ratio analysis process (S425) and the liquidity gap derivation process (S426) form a detailed process of the estimation performance analysis process (S420).

The estimating performance evaluation unit 430, the credit rating diagnosis unit 431 for calculating the current credit rating of the company by comparing the actual business performance information of the settlement statement and the estimated period and the data of other system DB, the financial ratio information of the company Is compared to the industry average and outputs information on the level of the appropriate financial ratio, the average analysis analysis section 433, the financial ratio information or liquidity gap information derived from the estimated performance analysis unit 420 by analyzing the estimated financial statements It includes a credit rating analysis unit (435) for estimating the credit rating for the future using one or more of the financing cost analysis unit (437) for analyzing the cost of equity and debt capital for the management plan In doing so, an evaluation of the estimated performance is performed.

The credit rating diagnosis unit 431 is configured to diagnose the current credit rating, and inputs the settlement statement information and the information of other systems (eg, QuickBooks, DUZON, etc.) collected by the other system DB calling unit 150. To assess the current credit rating of the company. The process of performing the current credit rating diagnosis of the company described above is the credit rating diagnosis process (S431) of FIG. 6.

The industry average comparison and analysis unit 433 compares and analyzes the company's financial ratio and the average of the same industry to derive an appropriate target guideline, and derives an appropriate level of financial ratio. It is configured to check the position of the contrast high, low, and average contrast deviation. The comparative analysis process with the industrial average for the corporate financial ratio is the industrial average comparison analysis process (S433) of FIG. 6.

The credit rating analysis unit 435 may check for potential insolvency by predicting a future credit rating. The credit rating analysis unit 435 reflects a method of improving the credit rating and utilizes estimated financial statements, not past credit ratings, in the future. It is configured to estimate the credit rating. Predictions of future credit ratings can be made either by increasing sales, performance, or after receiving a consulting plan.

The process of estimating the future credit rating of the company using the estimated financial statements as described above becomes the credit rating analysis process (S435) of FIG. 6.

The financing cost analysis unit 437 receives the optimized financing plan derived by the financing simulation unit 440 and analyzes the financing cost for analyzing the capital cost and financing cost for financing. It is configured to perform a funding cost analysis process (S437).

The estimated rating evaluation process (S431), the industry average comparison analysis process (S433), the credit rating analysis process (S435), and the funding cost analysis process (S437) by the estimating performance evaluation unit 430, the estimated performance evaluation of FIG. A process (S430) is achieved.

The funding simulation unit 440 is configured to perform a simulation process (S440) for establishing borrowing, capital raising or cost planning for financing. To this end, the funding simulation unit 440 is a cost reduction simulation unit 441 that establishes a cost policy to cover the insufficient funds by adjusting the cost plan, borrowing simulation to generate a debt portfolio for borrowing the insufficient funds from the outside Department of Capital Procurement Simulation, which establishes a capital policy that includes capital increase (443), paid-in capital increase to raise capital shortages, IPO timing, adjustment of the number of open stocks, the size of procurement by public disclosure, and adjustment of dividend policy. 445) or an asset sale simulation unit 447 that establishes an asset sale or business restructuring policy that procures deficit funds by one or more of some of the asset sale or business restructuring.

The cost reduction simulation unit 441 is configured for deriving self-help efforts for shortage funds, and is configured to perform a simulation on a cost plan that allows the shortfall funds to be covered through a cost plan. The process of performing the simulation of the cost plan for the provision of the insufficient funds becomes the cost reduction simulation process (S441) of FIG. 6. Here, the cost saving optimization simulation that maximizes the cost saving effect as a result of the construction of the self-effort cost plan to be simulated should be performed.

The borrowing simulation unit 443 is a combination of debt composition and domestic financing. Foreign procurement, fixed rate vs. Deriving an appropriate debt portfolio for the size of multidimensional debt financing methods such as variable interest rates and currency procurement, which predicts procurement costs by procurement sources, ie, debt composition units, and derives a debt portfolio that minimizes procurement costs by using simulation. In order to reduce the debt financing cost by deriving the appropriate debt portfolio, it is configured to derive the debt portfolio by conducting a simulation that borrows externally as much as insufficient funds. For example, by performing the financial forecasting operation again, the results of the estimated financial statements according to the composition of the debt portfolio can be derived, and the procurement effects can be compared and analyzed by comparing the interest expenses on the debts derived based on the results. do.

The appropriate debt portfolio simulation technique is applied to equity financing, cost reduction, asset sale, and business portfolio adjustment. As described above, the process of performing the borrowing simulation for the insufficient funds becomes the borrowing simulation process (S443) of FIG. 6.

The capital procurement simulation unit 445 is configured to perform a simulation on procurement of insufficient funds with equity capital. These simulation targets include paid-in capital increase, IPO timing, number of open stocks, estimation of procurement size by disclosure and adjustment of dividend policy. As described above, the process of performing the simulation for the procurement of the capital for the insufficient funds becomes the equity raising simulation process (S445) of FIG. 6.

In the above-mentioned capital procurement simulation process (S445), minimization of cost of capital financing and maximization of procurement effect are derived as a result of estimation of paid-in capital increase, IPO timing, number of public shares, procurement size and adjustment of dividend policy. The capital optimization simulation is performed.

The asset sale simulation unit 447 is configured to perform a simulation on a plan of selling a part of the asset for the procurement of the shortage fund. This may include business restructuring. The process of performing the above-described simulation of the asset sale plan for the assistance financing becomes the asset sale simulation process (S447) of FIG. 6.

In the above-described asset sale simulation process (S447), an optimization simulation is performed in which the maximization of asset sale and business restructuring effects are derived as a result of the asset sale configuration to be simulated.

One or more of the above-described cost reduction simulation process (S441), borrowing simulation process (S443), equity financing simulation process (S445), or asset sale simulation process (S447) is the funding simulation process (S440) of FIG. To achieve. When one or more of the simulation procedures described above are computed, the optimization of the integrated simulation results of the funding simulation should also be made to maximize the effect of the results of each simulation procedure.

The enterprise value calculation government 450 based on the estimated data of the estimated financial statement derivation unit 373, the analysis data of the estimated performance analysis unit, and the credit rating and funding cost analysis information analyzed by the estimated performance evaluation unit. It is configured to perform the calculation of enterprise value calculation process (S450). The enterprise value calculation consists of the weighted average funding costs of other capital and equity capital raised for the company's business activities in cash flow and denominator due to the company's business activities. Cash flows from operating activities of the numerator company are secured by the calculation of the estimated financial statements, and the weighted average funding cost, which is the denominator, is derived from the cost of financing debt and the financing simulation of the appropriate debt portfolio derived from the chimney simulation department. It is secured by a weighted average of the cost of raising capital. Using the data obtained in this way, it is automatically derived by the company value calculation method.

The optimal scenario selection unit 460, the scenarios generated by the scenario generation process (S350) of the scenario generation unit 350 and the financial prospecting simulation process (S370) performed by the financial prospecting simulation simulation unit 370 (S370). The result of the simulation, the estimation result analysis of the estimation performance analysis process performed by the estimation performance analysis unit 420, the estimation result evaluation of the estimation performance evaluation process (S430) performed by the estimation performance evaluation unit 430 DP. As a result, the simulation result of the funding simulation process (S440) performed by the fund raising simulation unit 440 and the calculation result information of the enterprise value calculation process (S450) performed by the enterprise value calculation government 450, the optimum It is configured to perform the optimal scenario selection process (S460) of Figure 6 to enable the selection of the scenario, to achieve a performance close to the target performance by analyzing two or more generated scenarios Scenario comparison analysis unit 461 extracts the scenario predicted to be, the sensitivity risk analysis unit 463 analyzing the sensitivity according to the change of environmental indicators for the scenario extracted by the scenario comparison analysis unit 461, the sensitivity risk analysis After constructing a return-to-risk set of returns based on the analysis by section 463, the risk return analysis section 465 and the risk return analysis section that derive the most efficient investment opportunity set by simulating the optimal composition ratio of return-to-risk return sets. The optimal investment opportunity set derived in (465) includes a utility function that reflects the CEO's investment / risk propensity, and an optimal scenario derivation unit (467) that derives the scenarios closest to the mid- to long-term profit targets as optimal scenarios.

The scenario comparison analysis unit 461 is a comparative analysis of two or more generated scenarios, and performs a comparative analysis for each scenario / alternative. And predict the outcome of alternative implementations. The process of comparing these scenarios becomes the scenario comparison analysis process S461 of FIG. 6.

The sensitivity risk analysis unit 463 is configured to generate a risk response method assuming a change in environmental indicators whose sensitivity according to environmental indicator changes is higher than a reference value for each scenario, and modify the scenario according to the generated risk response method. do. In other words, the sensitivity to measure how sensitively the profits such as gross profit, operating profit, and net present value (NPV) fluctuate when major variables of environmental indicators such as exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate, and raw material price change. It is configured to perform a risk analysis process (S463). The unit of measurement at this time is a change in revenue (standard deviation, σ) when the main variable changes, and the greater the volatility, the greater the risk. The sensitivity risk analysis criteria at this time are profitability, stability (debt ratio / credit rating key indicators), and corporate value volatility. As such, the process of analyzing the sensitivity risk on the environmental indicator for each scenario is the sensitivity risk analysis process (S463) of FIG. 6.

Through this sensitivity risk analysis, it is possible to make a quantitative decision making to predict the future management environment and to establish a company survival and development strategy.In response to the rapidly changing external environment strategy and corporate performance goals And financial management strategies, crisis response strategies and sensitivity management strategies.

If a normal distribution is assumed, it is not used for the analysis of variables that have the characteristics of the option (eg, option interest rate swaps, conversion options, and interest rate swaps). The sensitivity risk analysis unit 463 needs to be linked with the risk return analysis unit 465 to determine F / X, interest rate, liquidity risk, and profit volatility.

The risk return analysis unit 465 can perform stress testing, preliminary prediction / checking of management risks, support for risk contingency, minimizing risk damage, establishing proactive management response strategies, and quantifying risk. In addition, the risk management system can be operated by selecting key risk indicators to be managed by companies and constructing scenarios based on them.

To this end, the risk return analysis unit 465 configures a profit set against risk (return volatility) based on the sensitivity analysis. Correlation (ρ) between risks is then considered. The variance covariance matrix is derived from the above data, and based on this, the weight of each project (portfolio) is simulated. Find the optimal composition ratio for each project. In this case, in the case of assuming a normal distribution, it is reasonable to derive the composition ratio through the sharp ratio. Simulate the optimal composition ratio of each risk-to-risk set of returns to derive the most efficient frontier, and conduct risk measurement and evaluation, list limit management, and stress testing to derive and present the feasibility priorities of each key evaluation indicator. do. The process of analyzing the above-described risk return is the risk return analysis process (S 465) of FIG.

The optimal scenario derivation unit 467 may implement an alternative derivation process, select an optimal alternative, perform portfolio optimization and follow-up management, construct an optimal business portfolio, and derive a business portfolio. Various Strategic Scenarios Construct strategic alternatives, enable optimal allocation of investment resources to achieve strategic goals in response to changes in the business environment, achieve balanced resource allocation and internalization of decision-making processes, and It is configured to perform the optimal scenario derivation process (S467) of Figure 6 to perform alternative structure design, decision support solution execution and the like.

Specifically, the optimal scenario derivation unit 467 applies two methods for deriving the most appropriate scenario from the optimal investment opportunity set derived from the risk return analysis unit. First, we derive the most appropriate business portfolio by applying the utility function reflecting the CEO's investment / risk tendency. Second, we derive the business portfolio that meets the mid- to long-term profit targets through scenario analysis. The process of deriving such an optimal scenario is the above-described optimal scenario derivation process (S467).

The optimal scenario selection process (S460) includes a scenario comparison analysis process (S461), a sensitivity risk analysis process (S463), a risk return analysis process (S465), and an optimal scenario derivation process (S467).

As described above, after the management goal is set, each cost is estimated, the budgeting LAN according to the estimated cost is determined, and the resources for resources such as enterprise-wide common costs, common assets, common liabilities, common capital, and common interest costs After the estimated financial statements are derived from the management plan for each scenario generated by allocation, the estimated performance analyzed using the estimated financial statements and the countermeasures for shortfall funding through the results of the analysis and the simulation are the objectives of the management plan. Feedback for reestablishment. This processing becomes the feedback process S500 of FIG. 6.

In the feedback process (S500), the performance gap analysis result data derived by the performance gap analysis process (S421) of the performance gap analysis unit 421 is fed back to the management plan unit 200, the management plan process to establish a re-management plan It is reflected in (S200). In addition, the performance data of the estimated period is input through the settlement statement input unit 113 so as to be used as management basic information for the establishment of the re-management plan and is reflected in the re-management plan establishment process.

The management plan management support method of the present invention having the above-described configuration includes a recording medium recording code executed by a computer, such as a management plan support management program executed by a computer configured as shown in FIG. 11, or the management plan as shown in FIG. It may consist of a computer system equipped with a management plan support management program implemented with a management support method.

The present invention described above establishes a management goal using the established business portfolio, the company's endogenous and exogenous variables, and performance data, establishes a budget and a budget procurement plan for achieving the management goal, and then sets a schedule estimation period. It can be applied to the strategic decision-making and business decision-making industries of corporate management, which enables the establishment of a management plan including a budget plan, a budget raising plan, and an estimated period.

Claims (9)

1. In the management plan method by the management plan management support system including the management plan unit,

   Management plan management support, characterized in that consisting of; the management plan process for establishing the management target and the management plan and budget procurement plan, using the basic management data including the company basic information; How to Plan.
2. The method according to claim 1,

   The management plan management support system further includes a management basic information setting unit,

   The management basic information setting process of inputting and setting the basic company information through the management basic setting unit, and establishing a master system by inputting the management basic data consisting of target information to be selected in the management plan; Management plan method for management plan management support, characterized in that further comprises to be carried out before the process.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the basic management information setting process comprises:

   Enter the company's accumulated settlement information by the company basic information setting unit, call and reflect the information of other system DBs, and enter the estimation methods for accounts to set the company basic information. Information setting process;

   Set the business type from the basic company information, input the entire business portfolio information including all business units and items, and map the company's COA account with the standardized estimated account to create an accounting account so as to establish a company management plan. A master system setting process of establishing a master system including management basic data consisting of target information to be selected in a management plan; And

   The management plan method for the management plan management support, characterized in that consisting of; plan frame basic setting process for selecting and setting the estimated period of the management plan for management plan management support.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein the basic company information setting process,

   Exogenous variable input process for inputting exogenous variables related to the company so that exogenous variables for the management plan can be selected;

   A settlement statement input process for receiving the settlement statement;

   Provides financial statements data of other system DBs as input or received and provides them as settlement statement information, or provides them for credit rating analysis for current credit rating diagnosis or future credit rating prediction. Calling process of other system DB which provides as a comparison data to confirm the position on management performance; And

   Estimation method for performance by estimated account to select the estimation method for account estimation and financial results within the estimation period for each estimated account mapped to the COA account by the master system setting process or allocation logic for allocation Or a distribution logic and estimating method inputting process for inputting one or more of the distribution logic.
5. The method of claim 3, wherein the master system setting process comprises:

   An industry type selection process of selecting an industry type of the company for the management plan;

   A business unit and item organization process of inputting a company / business unit / item-based portfolio to select one or more of the enterprise / business unit / item-based portfolios; And

   A management plan management support comprising: a COA estimated account selection process of mapping a code of account (COA) of the financial statements to an estimated account for the estimated financial statements derived through the management plan; Management Plan Method
6. The method of claim 1, wherein the management plan process,

   A management goal setting process for setting a management goal using the management basic data;

   A business portfolio selection process for selecting and setting a business portfolio to achieve a set management goal;

   An exogenous variable configuration process of selecting and setting exogenous variables influencing the management goal and the business portfolio;

   An estimation method selection process for selecting an estimation method for performance estimation and prediction of financial results for each account within the estimation period for each estimated estimation account;

   A budget plan process of generating a budget including a sales cost after establishing a sales plan for achieving a management goal of the selected scenario; And

   A management plan method for a business plan management support, comprising: a budget procurement plan process for establishing a budget procurement plan for procuring a budget generated in the budget plan process.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein the budget plan process,

   A sales plan process of analyzing a sales for achieving the management goal and establishing a sales plan;

   Cost of sales plan for establishing a cost of sales plan for the achievement of the sales plan;

   A production plan process of setting a production budget for achieving the sales plan;

   A purchase plan process of setting a purchase budget for achieving the sales plan;

   A workforce plan process for setting a workforce budget for achieving the sales plan; And

   Other cost plan process of estimating other costs, including utility expenses and general expenses, other than sales, cost of production, production, purchasing, workforce plan, etc. among the accounts of the income statement; Management plan method for management plan management support, characterized in that made by.
8. The method of claim 6, wherein the budgeting plan process,

   An asset plan process for establishing an asset plan for forming an asset of a balance sheet required for the execution of the budget plan based on the income statement;

   An investment plan process for establishing an investment plan and an asset disposal plan based on the balance sheet account-based asset plan; And

   A management plan for supporting management plan management, comprising: a funding plan process for establishing a funding plan necessary for performing an asset plan, an investment plan, and an asset disposal plan based on the asset plan and the investment plan. Way.
9. The method of claim 8, wherein the asset plan process,

   Management for the management plan management support, characterized in that further comprising the establishment of budgeting for the balance sheet accounts other than the account for which the funding plan and the investment plan is established by the funding plan process and the investment plan process. How to Plan.

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