KR101793619B1 - Business plan management method for monthly based short-term supporting enterprise business plan management - Google Patents

Abstract

The present invention relates to a short-term monthly enterprise management plan management which establishes a management plan for supporting management plan management to verify the appropriateness of management goals and to establish a short-term or medium-term budget or management plan to achieve the set management goals As for how to support,
The management plan management support method described above uses a management plan data including the basic information of a company in a management plan management plan by a management plan management support system including a management plan department to set a management plan and a budget plan And a management plan process that establishes a budget procurement plan,
In order to achieve the set management goal, the budget is set, the company's resources are distributed, the simulation is performed, the simulation result is compared with the actual management plan execution result, and the budget formulation and allocation plan is re-planned , And to effectively establish a management plan that can efficiently achieve management goals.

Description

{BUSINESS PLAN MANAGEMENT METHOD FOR MONTHLY BASED SHORT-TERM SUPPORTING ENTERPRISE BUSINESS PLAN MANAGEMENT}

The present invention relates to management plan management support, and more particularly, to establish a management plan including a short-term or mid-term budget or management plan for verifying the appropriateness of a management goal and achieving a set management goal This study is concerned with the management plan management support method for short - term monthly enterprise management plan management support.

In general, corporate management consulting based on manual report is not only difficult to ensure the reliability of consulting results, but also fails to respond effectively to rapidly changing management conditions and has limited one-time consulting.

In order to overcome these limitations, the inventor of the present invention has developed a technology capable of ensuring the reliability of consulting results by presenting objective and standardized consulting results in connection with IT technology and consulting technology, and capable of efficiently responding to rapidly changing business conditions Patent No. 10-2010-0138232 (Dec. 31, 2010).

Korean Patent No. 10-1230007 deals with strategic decision-making matters related to business and finance. However, in decision-making for business management, it is necessary to consider not only strategic decision-related matters related to business and finance, Decision problems also become important.

Accordingly, in Korean Patent No. 10-1230008, an operational decision for operational decision making and a strategic decision for strategic decision are analyzed to evaluate the feasibility of the individual business, so that the feasibility of the business is verified. It is possible to provide objective and standardized corporate management consulting by constructing and analyzing the enterprise business portfolios of the company and selecting the optimal enterprise business portfolio to ensure reliability in operational and strategic decision making, We have introduced a management decision support system that enables us to respond effectively to management conditions.

However, even if a scenario for achieving the management goal is established by selecting the optimum enterprise business portfolio by the above-described prior arts, a budget should be established and a formal support system for the proper evaluation and re- There is a problem that the target of the selected scenario can not be achieved effectively.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION Accordingly, the present invention has been made keeping in mind the above problems occurring in the prior art, and it is an object of the present invention to establish a management target using a business portfolio established by strategic decision making and management decision making, an endogenous and exogenous variable of a company, To establish short-term monthly enterprise management plan management plan that establishes a budget plan and a budget procurement plan to achieve the management goal, and then establishes a management plan including a budget plan, a budget procurement plan, It is aimed to provide management plan management support method.

According to an aspect of the present invention, there is provided a management plan method for supporting management plan management comprising a management basic information setting unit, a management plan unit, a scenario generating unit, a financial forecast calculation simulating unit, A method for supporting management plan management by a management plan management support system, comprising the steps of: inputting and setting company basic information through the management basic information setting unit; inputting the management basic data, A management basic information setting process for establishing a master system; A management plan process that establishes a budget plan and a budget procurement plan for setting management goals and achieving management goals using management basic data including basic information of the company; A scenario generation process of generating a scenario in which a business portfolio, an item or a business unit for achieving a management target and a management goal, a budget plan and a budget procurement plan, and a distribution information are collected by the scenario generation unit; A financial forecast calculation simulation process for predicting the estimated account performance and financial information during the estimation period by the financial forecast calculation simulation unit and then deriving the estimated financial statements; Monitoring and analyzing the difference between the actual result of the management plan and the actual result of the management plan by comparing the actual management performance during the estimation period by the monitoring and analyzing unit; And a feedback process for feedbacking the analyzed difference to the management plan unit to re-establish the management plan.

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In the management basic information setting process, the company's basic accounting information is inputted by the company basic information setting unit, the information of other system DB such as accounting system and business type DB is called and reflected, A company basic information setting process for setting company basic information by inputting estimation methods; You can set up a business type from the company basic information, enter all business portfolio information including all business units and items, create a accounting account by mapping the company's COA account with a formalized estimated account, A master system setting process that establishes a master system that includes management basic data composed of information to be selected in the management plan; And a plan frame basic setting process for selecting and setting an estimation period of a management plan for supporting management plan management.

The company basic information setting process includes an exogenous variable input process for inputting a company and an associated exogenous variable so that the exogenous variables for the management plan configuration can be selected; A settlement inputting step of inputting the settlement of accounts; Financial statements data of other system DBs such as accounting system and business type DB are input or received and provided as financial statements information or provided for credit rating analysis for present credit rating prediction or future credit rating prediction, Other system DB call process that provides comparative data for confirming positioning of business performance by comparison analysis of same industry data; And an estimation method for estimating the performance of each account within the estimation period and an estimation method for the financial result or an allocation logic for distribution within the estimation period mapped to the COA account by the master system setting process, And a distribution logic and an estimation method inputting method for inputting a distribution method and a distribution logic.

Wherein the master system setting step comprises: an industry selecting step of selecting an industry type of company for the management plan; A business unit and an item formation process that inputs a portfolio of company / business unit / item so that one or more of the company / business unit / item unit portfolio can be selected; And a COA estimation account selection step of mapping a code of account (COA) of the financial statements to an estimation account for the estimated financial statements derived through the management plan.

The management plan process includes a management goal setting process for setting a management goal using the management basic data; A business portfolio selection process for selecting and setting a business portfolio to achieve a set management goal; An exogenous variable composition process that selects and sets exogenous variables that affect the business objectives and business portfolios; An estimation method selection process for selecting an estimation method for estimating the account performance and the financial result within the estimation period for each estimated estimation account; A budget plan process for establishing a sales plan for achieving a management goal of the selected scenario and then generating a budget including a sales cost; And a budget procurement plan process for establishing a budget procurement plan for procuring the budget generated in the budget plan process.

The budget plan process includes a sales plan process for analyzing sales to achieve the management goals and establishing a sales plan; A cost-of-sales plan process that establishes a cost of sales plan for achieving the sales plan; A production plan process for setting a production budget for achieving the sales plan; A purchase plan process for setting a purchase budget for achieving the sales plan; A personnel plan process for setting a workforce budget for achieving the sales plan; And other cost plan process that establishes a plan for other expenses in the income statement account, including sales, cost of goods, production, purchasing, personnel expenses, and other expenses including utility expenses and general expenses. And the like.

Wherein the budget procurement plan process comprises: an asset plan process for establishing an asset plan for asset composition of a balance sheet necessary for performing the budget plan based on an income statement account; An investment plan process for establishing an investment plan and an asset disposition plan based on the asset plan centered on the balance sheet account; And a fund procurement plan process for establishing a fund procurement plan necessary for performing an asset plan, an investment plan and an asset disposal plan based on the asset plan and the investment plan.

The asset planning process further comprises establishing a budget procurement for the balance sheet account other than the account in which the funding plan and the investment plan are established by the fund procurement plan process and the investment plan process.

In order to verify the appropriateness of the management goals and to achieve the set management goals, the present invention having the above-described configuration is performed by establishing the budget, distributing the resources of the company, performing the simulation, , It is possible to effectively establish a management plan for management plan management support that enables management targets to be efficiently achieved by re-planning the budget formulation and distribution plan.

1 is a block diagram of a management plan management support system including a management plan section according to an embodiment of the present invention;
2 is a flowchart showing a process of a management plan management support method including a process of a management plan management support method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Hereinafter, the present invention will be described in more detail with reference to the accompanying drawings showing embodiments of the present invention.

In the following description of the present invention, detailed description of known functions and configurations incorporated herein will be omitted when it may make the subject matter of the present invention rather unclear.

Embodiments in accordance with the concepts of the present invention can make various changes and have various forms, so that specific embodiments are illustrated in the drawings and described in detail in this specification or application. It should be understood, however, that the embodiments according to the concepts of the present invention are not intended to be limited to any particular mode of disclosure, but rather all variations, equivalents, and alternatives falling within the spirit and scope of the present invention.

It is to be understood that when an element is referred to as being "connected" or "connected" to another element, it may be directly connected or connected to the other element, . On the other hand, when an element is referred to as being "directly connected" or "directly connected" to another element, it should be understood that there are no other elements in between. Other expressions that describe the relationship between components, such as "between" and "between" or "neighboring to" and "directly adjacent to" should be interpreted as well.

The terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the invention. The singular expressions include plural expressions unless the context clearly dictates otherwise. In this specification, the terms "comprises ", or" having ", or the like, specify that there is a stated feature, number, step, operation, , Steps, operations, components, parts, or combinations thereof, as a matter of principle.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a management plan management support system including a management plan unit according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 2 is a block diagram of a management plan management support system including a process of a management plan management support method according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing a process of a support method. FIG.

The present invention is constituted by a management plan management support system which is constituted by a set of codes executed by a computer and is executed in a computer, and each constitution of the management plan management support system is constituted by each process of the management plan management support method of the present invention The management plan management support system of FIG. 1 and the management plan management support method of FIG. 2 will be explained together.

1 and 2, the management basic information setting unit 100 for carrying out the management plan method of the present invention, the management plan management system including the management plan unit 200, and the management plan management The method of support is as follows.

1 and 2, the management plan management support system includes a management basic information setting unit 100 that performs a management basic information setting process S100, a management system 200 that performs a management plan process S200 A scenario generation unit 350 that performs a scenario generation process S350 for generating a scenario for management plan management, a history of the generated scenario, A scenario history management and selection unit 360 for performing a scenario history management and selection process S360 for managing a scenario and selecting a specific scenario, a scenario management and selection unit 360 for deriving an estimated financial statement using the generated scenario, A monitoring and analysis unit 400 for monitoring and analyzing the difference between the estimation result according to the plan and the actual performance during the estimation period, The optimum scenario selection unit 460 for performing the mis-selection process (S460) and the analyzed data are fed back to the management basic information setting unit 100 and the management plan unit 200 to change the management basic information and establish a new management plan And a feedback unit 500 for performing a feedback process (S500) to enable the feedback process (S500).

In the above configuration, the management basic information setting process (S100) and the management plan process (S200) constitute the management plan management support method of the present invention.

In the above-described configuration, the management basic information setting unit 100 inputs the accumulated settlement account information of the company, invokes information of the other system DB and reflects it, inputs the estimation methods for the accounts, A company basic information setting unit 110 that performs a company basic information setting process S110 for setting an industry type from among the company basic information and inputs all business portfolio information including all business units and items A master who establishes a master system consisting of the information to be selected in the management plan so that the COA account can be created by mapping the COA account of the COA account of the company with the formulated account of estimating the account, A master system setting unit 120 for performing a system setting process S120, and an estimation period of a management plan for supporting management plan management Plan is based on a frame setting process (S130) comprises flange-frame basis setting unit 130 for performing a.

Specifically, the company basic information setting unit 110 includes an exogenous variable input unit 111 for performing an externally inputting process S111 for inputting a company-related exogenous variable so that the externality variable for the management plan configuration can be selected. A financial statement input unit 113 for performing a financial statement inputting process S113 for receiving the financial statements, a financial statement data input / reception unit for receiving or receiving financial statement data of another system, (S115), which is provided for credit rating analysis for predicting the credit rating and provided as comparative data for confirming the positioning of the business performance by comparing and analyzing data of other industries and similar similar industries And a distribution logic for distributing an estimation method for estimating an account-by-account and a financial result in an estimation period for each estimated account mapped to the COA account by the master system setting unit 120, A distribution logic and an estimation method for inputting at least one of an estimation method for estimated account-based performance or a distribution logic for distribution so as to select (S117), and an estimation method inputting unit 117. [0064]

In addition, the company basic information setting step (S110) by the company basic information setting unit 110 may be performed by setting the company basic information for setting the company basic information for the progress of the management plan management supporting procedure, CEO name, person in charge, year of establishment, type of business, and so on. In this way, it is possible to select a company-wide business structure, business structure, and items (including unit business and project) information of the entire company so as to create a scenario for management plan management.

The other system DB calling unit 115 receives or receives data such as financial statement data of other systems such as QuickBooks or DUZON, accounting system, business statistics DB, etc. and provides it as settlement information, Provided as comparative data for credit rating analysis for predicting credit rating, and other system DB call process (S115) to provide comparative data for confirming positioning of company management performance by comparing and analyzing data of other industries and similar similar industries .

The master system setting unit 120 includes an industry selection unit 121 for performing an industry selection process S121 for selecting a business type of company for a management plan and an enterprise selection unit 121 for selecting an enterprise / A business unit for inputting a portfolio of an enterprise / business unit / item so as to select one or more portfolios of item units, a business unit and an item construction unit 123 for performing an item formation process (S123) And a COA estimation account selection step (S125) for mapping a COA, a code of account (COA), to an estimated account for the estimated financial statements derived through the management plan (S125).

Specifically, each of the configurations of the master system setting unit 120 will be described in more detail. The industry type selection unit 121 is configured to perform a business type selection process S121 for receiving and storing business type information. The business type selection process S121 by the business department S121 is a process of selecting a business type of a scenario to be subjected to management plan management by selecting at least one of manufacturing, distribution, and service.

The business unit and the item configuration process (S123) by the business unit and the item configuration unit 123 may be implemented by selecting one or more of the enterprise / business unit / item-based portfolios derived by strategic decision- This is a process of inputting and storing a business unit / item-level portfolio. In the entire business portfolio including the input business unit or item information, a business portfolio to be managed by the management plan is selected to form a scenario for management plan management.

The COA estimation account selection unit 125 is configured to map the code of account (COA) of the accounting to an estimation account for the estimated financial statements derived through the management plan. Specifically, the COA estimation account selection unit 125 estimates the accounts included in the accumulated accounts of the company, which have been input by the user through the output interface screen or automatically by the accounting input unit 113, The COA accounts are mapped to the accounts in the estimated financial statements by matching or integrating them into the accounting accounts for. By such mapping, it is possible to standardize various accounting account notations and configurations according to the type of business, and this process is a COA estimation account selection process (S125).

The plane frame basic setting unit 130 enables to set an estimation period for estimating the management plan. The plan frame basic setting unit 130 is configured to output an interface screen to select and set an estimation period of a management plan for supporting management plan management. This process is performed in the plan frame basic setting process 130 of FIG. .

As described above, the endogenous variable information, the exogenous variable information, the company information, the accumulated accounting information, the other system DB information, the distribution logic or the estimation methodology information, and the master system setting information, which are inputted by the company basic information setting unit 110, The information including the business type information set and input by the business management unit 120, the total business portfolio information derived by the strategic decision, the estimated account information mapped to the COA account, and the estimation period information for estimating the management plan, And the management basic data as the management basic data.

Next, the management plan unit 200 performs a management plan process (S200) to establish a management plan including a management target, a business portfolio, a budget plan for achieving the management goal, and a budget procurement plan, .

Specifically, the management plan unit 200 includes a management target setting unit 210 for setting a management target using the management basic data through a management target setting process S210, a business portfolio selection process S215, A business portfolio selection unit 215 for selecting and setting a business portfolio for achieving a management goal set by the business management unit 210 and an exogenous variable affecting the business goal and the business portfolio , An exogenous variable constructing unit 220 for selecting an estimation method for selecting an estimation method for estimating an account-by-account performance and an estimation for a financial result within the estimation period for each estimated account estimated by the estimation method selection process (S230) A budget plan process (S240) for creating a budget including a cost of sales after establishing a sales plan for achieving a management goal of the selected scenario, And a budget procurement plan unit 250 for performing a budget procurement plan process (S250) for establishing a budget procurement plan for procuring the budget generated by the budget plan unit 240 and the budget plan unit 240 .

The management plan process S200 including the management goal setting process S210, the exogenous variable configuration process S220, the estimation method selection process S230, the budget plan process S240, and the budget procurement plan process S250 It accomplishes.

Each configuration of the management plan unit 200 will be described in more detail.

The management goal setting unit 210 is configured to set a management goal using the accumulated accounting information of the financial statements by performing a management goal setting process (S210). Specifically, the management goal setting unit 210 sets a sales target, a net income goal, a cash goal, a debt ratio reduction target, a target enterprise value, and the like for achieving a management goal through an output interface screen. At this time, the target is set by using the cumulative settlement account information and the system DB information of the company, which is inputted in the management basic information setting section 100.

The method of setting the above-mentioned management goals can be set as a past trend of the enterprise-based and industry-based industry average or the CEO's goal. In this case, the target of the management target can be set as sales goal, net profit goal, holding cash goal, goal of reducing debt ratio, target company value, and so on.

As described above, after the core management objective is established, specifically, the sales target, the net profit goal, the cash goal, the debt ratio reduction target, and the target enterprise value for achieving the management goal can be set. In addition, the company will be able to perform sales and business divisions' sales targets, net income targets, retained cash targets, debt ratio reduction targets, target enterprise value estimates, and target allocation for each accountability unit. In addition, we refer to the previous year's results and set the cash capacity and the external procurement need scale goal. Also, if the performance data on which the established management plan has been updated is updated, it will be configured so that the next budget can be established reflecting the target gap. Besides. It is structured so that it can perform market performance benchmarking performance comparison, and it is configured to verify the feasibility of the management goal setting. The validity of the management goal setting is verified through comparison with past performance or industry averages. The process performed by the management goal setting unit 210 described above becomes the management goal setting process S210 and the management goal setting process S210 is performed to verify whether or not the target is achieved, .

The business portfolio selection unit 215 outputs a list of the business portfolios stored by the management basic information setting unit 100 in the management basic information setting step S100 to thereby select a business portfolio for achieving the management goal And performs a portfolio selection process (S215).

The exogenous variable constructing unit 220 selects exogenous variables influencing the management related to the management goals and the business portfolio among the exogenous variables among the management basic information set in the management basic information setting unit 100, (Step S220). [0054] In the second embodiment, as shown in FIG.

The estimation method selection unit 230 is configured to select a method for estimating an account-based performance and a financial result in an estimation period for each of the estimated accounts of the estimated financial statements. The estimation method of the estimation method selection unit 230 is an estimation modeling in which the management basic information setting unit 100 sets the distribution logic and the estimation method of the distribution logic and estimation method input unit 117 And selects a corresponding estimation method (estimation methodology) among the estimation methods inputted through the process S117 to determine and provide the selected estimation method as a default value. Even if the general estimation methodology is applied to small companies such as SMEs, the users of appropriate enterprises can select appropriate estimation methods and prediction models presented by the system. On the other hand, if a sophisticated estimation methodology appropriate to the characteristics of the company is required, it can be modeled for each profit and loss account and applied to the system. In this case, there is a way for the software engineer to apply the modeling to the system, and in the case of large enterprises, the system user and the consultant use the method of inputting and applying the modeling directly to the system with or without some support from the software engineer It is possible. This processing procedure becomes the estimation method selection procedure (S230) of FIG.

The budget plan unit 240 mainly estimates an account of profit and loss accounts. The budget plan unit 240 includes a sales plan unit 241 for analyzing sales to achieve the management goals and establishing a sales plan, and a sales cost plan for achieving the sales plan unit A purchase plan unit 244 for setting a purchase budget according to the cost of purchase plan unit 242, a billing plan unit 242 for setting a purchase budget for the billing plan unit 242, A personnel plan unit 245 for setting a personnel budget for achieving the sales plan, and other cost plan units 247 for setting other cost budgets related to the sales of the handwritten bill other than the cost of goods, production cost, purchase cost, ). The budget plan establishing process of the budget plan unit 240 becomes the budget plan process S240 of FIG. 2, and the budget plan process S240 by the budget plan unit 240 is performed based on the profit and loss account .

Specifically, the sales plan unit 241 estimates a sales amount by applying at least one of a top down approach, a bottom up approach, and a weighted average. In addition, we estimate player revenue to estimate the turnover ratio of sales receivables and player profit to account for turnover of trade receivables. In some cases, the trade receivables and player profits may be reflected in a check instead of cash.

The top down approach estimates sales by unit, separated into sales by overseas sales by country, selected countries by company / company / item, or overseas sales. Estimated sales are entered monthly.

Domestic sales by top down approach are estimated through the following steps.

First, estimate the total market size, estimate the current GDP by the previous month's GDP * (1+ growth rate), and then estimate the market size by inputting the market ratio to GDP. Second, the price * quantity method is applied to estimate the total market quantity * unit price. Third, we estimate the total market size by weighted averaging of the first and second methods, and estimate the sales by inputting the occupancy rate of the company to the total market size as ()%. Fourth, we can apply trends based on past earnings when estimating domestic sales. Fifth, the same industry statistics can be applied to sales estimates.

Overseas sales or overseas sales by country of origin are also estimated by applying the five methods.

First, estimate the size of the global market and multiply unit price by quantity to estimate total overseas sales. Second, we apply the exchange rate to the size of the world market and estimate the overseas sales based on the exchange rate by unit price * quantity * F / X (foreign exchange). Third, we estimate the company's overseas sales by inputting the market share of the enterprise to the world market size as ()%. In this case, trend estimates and similar industry statistics based on past earnings, such as domestic sales, can be utilized. In the case of overseas sales by entering countries, sales are estimated by applying the five methods in a manner similar to the above-mentioned overseas sales.

The bottom up approach estimates the sales of each unit separated by domestic / overseas sales by company / company / i-tap (selectable).

Domestic sales by the bottom-up approach estimate revenues by entering sales plans, quantity, and unit price plans. Overseas sales are estimated by applying sales plan, quantity, unit price plan, and estimated exchange rate. After that, the company's sales are estimated by adding domestic sales and overseas sales.

The weighted average method is a method of assigning weights to the top-down approach and the bottom-up approach to estimate the average sales.

The sales plan establishing process by the sales plan section 241 becomes the sales plan process (S241) of FIG.

The COGS plan unit 242 estimates COGS, trade payables, and inventory assets. The cost of sales is estimated by estimating the unit price of the cost by estimating the past cost of sales or the ratio of the cost of sales to the sales of the same / similar sector, and by inputting the unit price and quantity in the formula of unit price * quantity. Trade payables are estimated using cost of goods sold / turnover ratio of trade payables. Inventories are estimated by cost of goods sold / inventory turnover. The COGS plan also applies top-down approaches or bottom-up approaches, such as sales forecasts, selectively or in combination. Estimated cost of sales includes production costs, purchasing costs, and manpower costs. The process of estimating the COGS of the COGS plan unit 242 is the COGS plan process (S242) of FIG.

The production plan unit 243, in the case of manufacturing, is capable of performing preliminary cost estimation, process leakage management of production and purchase in connection with the purchase plan unit. Specifically, the production plan unit 243 jointly estimates the operation rate (number of days of operation), the basic inventory, the appropriate inventory, and the production coefficient. And raw materials - semi - finished products - finished products. In this case, the semi-finished product may have several steps depending on the complexity of the process. It also estimates the change in the quantity of production according to the investment plan such as the capacity, maintenance, sale, and expansion of the plant. After that, the labor costs such as raw material cost, raw material cost and electricity cost are rolled up. We also estimate the routing activity and bill of materials (BOM) by product number.

The process of establishing the above-described production plan becomes the production plan process (S243) of FIG.

The purchase plan unit 244 establishes a purchase plan (distribution plan) for cost reduction through preliminary cost estimation, purchase diversification management, and purchase structure optimization. These purchase plans are linked to the production plan in the case of manufacturing and directly to the sales plan in the case of non-manufacturing. Specifically, the purchase plan for each sales unit is input to the interface screen to be output on a monthly basis or is estimated by the calculation process using the data set by the management basic information setting unit 100 and the sales plan unit or the production plan unit, And The purchase plan for each sales unit is the outsourcing cost for the service industry, the purchase of goods for the logistics industry, and the purchase of raw materials for the manufacturing industry. In addition, it is estimated by linking purchased quantity and inventory. Inventory estimates baseline inventory, ending inventory, purchase volume, and shipment volume, and estimates the appropriate inventory of the future including the present using the gap between the ending inventory and the past good inventory. The future optimal inventory estimates including the current estimates the amount of material and raw materials using managerial experience or industry average inventory data, and in this case, the purchasing pattern considering seasonal effects is identified and applied. Establish supplier, item, purchase quantity and purchase unit price plan. Selectively establish bulk purchase and purchase diversification plans. Estimate the cash flow from operating activities, taking into account the impact on foreign purchases, payment schedule and check usage. It also estimates the terms of payment for each customer. Inventory management policies are reflected in the estimated purchase plan. The process of establishing such a purchase plan is the purchase plan process (S244) of FIG.

The manpower plan unit 245 inputs a manpower input plan for each sales unit on the output interface screen, inputs personnel expenses such as annual salary (personnel expenses), and the number of people per job center / cost center / , And a man hour (man hour). Also choose direct and overhead costs. At this time, the production manpower is included in the production cost and the sales organization manpower is included in the SG & A cost plan. The staffing plan is established as described above, and the process of establishing such a staffing plan is the staffing plan process (S245) of FIG.

The other cost plan unit 247 estimates the utility expenses and general expenses of the accounts of the profit and loss account other than sales, cost of goods, production, purchase, and personnel plan. In this case, when the quantity, the unit price and the exchange rate information are inputted, the cost of each other account is estimated by the formula of quantity * unit price * F / X. At this time, the depreciation cost of the factory facility is taken as the manufacturing cost, and the depreciation cost of the office is estimated as the SG bill. The other cost plan process by the other cost plan unit 247 is the other cost plan process (S247) of FIG. These other cost plans are calculated by calculating the ratio of the company's past sales revenue or the ratio of sales to sales of the same or similar business type, and distributing them based on the monthly characteristics.

The budget procurement plan unit 250 includes an asset plan unit 251 for establishing an asset plan for constructing assets of the balance sheet such as facilities and inventory assets necessary for performing the budget plan based on the profit and loss account, An investment plan unit 253 for establishing an investment plan and an asset disposal plan based on an asset plan of the asset planning unit 251 and an investment plan unit 253, And a funding plan unit 255 for establishing a funding plan necessary for the fund.

The asset plan unit 251 is an asset planning unit for establishing an asset plan for constructing a balance sheet asset such as equipment necessary for performing a budget plan such as sales activities, fixed assets such as inventory assets, and current assets such as accounts receivable Is the asset plan process (S251) of Fig. The asset planning process S251 may further include establishing a budget procurement for the balance sheet accounts other than the accounts for which the funding plan and the investment plan are established by the fund procurement plan process and the investment plan process.

The investment plan unit 253 inputs an investment plan, an asset disposal profit or loss, and an asset disposal plan reflecting an asset triangular profit and loss account in order to secure assets required for business activities on the output interface screen, If you enter the investment cost, you will be able to enter the investment cost by monthly, project, WBS (Work Breakdown Structure), currency investment amount, sale amount, asset replacement period, financial assets amount, amount of payment, income interest, dividend, investment amount, , Depreciation, construction account, and asset replacement.

For the estimation of non-current assets, new or non-current assets are estimated to be non-current assets by extracting the existing assets and liabilities from the disposal price and book value account of the balance sheet and entering the acquisition price and depreciation period.

Depreciation and amortization expense is estimated by the formula of (asset / depreciable asset * depreciation rate) of the balance sheet account and the depreciation cost of new or existing assets by the expression (acquisition price / useful life).

Loss on disposal gains is estimated by the sum of the book value of disposable assets and disposable assets.

The process of establishing the investment plan as described above becomes the investment plan process (S253) of FIG.

When the enterprise borrowing type is selected through the interface screen and the borrowing plan is input, the funding plan unit 255 determines whether the existing or new, short-term or long-term borrowed money is based on the balance of the balance sheet (BS) Estimated and funded. Specifically, the Minimum Cash Required is entered as a percentage of revenue or as a balance of inventory, and if the maximum short term debt is entered, the short term borrowing entered in Borrowing needed is subtracted New long term debt required is estimated. In the case of equity capital, it is estimated by reflecting net profit and dividend policy. The process of estimating borrowings and capital by the funding plan unit 255 becomes the funding plan process S255 of FIG.

The distributing unit 300 is configured to perform a distribution process (S300) for distributing enterprise resources including a common rate and an overhead for performing the management plan.

For this, the distributing unit 300 includes a distributing logic selecting unit 310 and a distributing logic calculating unit 320.

The distribution logic selection unit 310 selects a predetermined allocation logic for the IS (profit and loss statement) / BS (balance sheet) / CF (cash flow table) according to company / business unit / item on the output interface screen. The distribution logic is preliminarily input by the distribution logic and estimation method input unit 117 and then output so that the user can select the distribution logic. At this time, it may be configured to be able to input when the input of the additional distribution logic is required. At this time, each allocation is applied not by financial accounting standard but by management accounting standard distribution logic by organization, product, and customer. And the allocation logic of overhead and internal interest, common assets, liabilities, and capital (including internal transactions) is selected. As a result, the profit and loss calculation is managed for each supplier of each product by organization. This selection of the distributing logic becomes the distributing logic selecting step S310 of FIG.

The distribution logic operation unit 320 distributes the assets, liabilities, capital, and the overheads of the profit and loss accounts of the balance sheet selected by the distribution logic selection unit by company, business unit, and item. The derivation of the above-described allocation by account becomes the distribution logic calculation process (S320) of FIG.

The allocation process derived by the allocation logic selection unit 310 of the above-described distribution logic selection unit 310 and the distribution logic calculation process S320 of the distribution logic operation unit 320 clarifies the performance management by responsibility unit, And to establish BS forecasting and BS accounting. The numerator of a company's performance evaluation index is usually composed of an income statement account and a denominator is a balance sheet account. Distribution Logic supports the analysis and evaluation of performance by linking the income statement and the balance sheet, rather than analyzing and evaluating the performance of the company's profit and loss statement. Therefore, by analyzing and evaluating the profitability of the profit and loss statement against the assets constituting the balance sheet, It is also advantageous to analyze and evaluate the profitability relative to the administration assets considering the administered assets in order to achieve profitability as well as the profitability. Therefore, it is possible to more directly analyze and evaluate the responsibility management performance of each accountable accounting unit.

The scenario generating unit 350 includes a business portfolio, an item or a business unit input by the business unit and the item organizing unit 123, a budget plan and budget procurement for achieving a management goal including the management goal and the management plan estimation period And a scenario generation process (S350) for collecting plan and distribution information and creating a scenario for executing the management plan.

These scenarios include forecasting of external environment such as macroeconomic environment indicators, contingencies, lifecycle of industry, setting strategy goals accordingly, planning business units / items for achieving strategic goals, sales plans, cost of sales plans, investment plans Including the implementation plan of the budget procurement plan for the achievement of the strategic goals, and the internal stakeholder's requests such as external evaluation stakeholders / executives such as credit rating agencies / government tax reports / investors, executives, And a differential management plan that reflects the management plan.

As described above, the scenario is largely a change in the sales amount according to the external environment and the lifecycle of the industry. However, scenarios may arise in terms of management of internal responses to changes in the external environment. In this case, the typical scenarios for internal response management consist of business portfolios.

Depending on the company, scenarios for each company, division, and item (project) are configured to derive estimated financial statements for the execution plan for setting sales targets and achieving sales targets.

Therefore, the scenario generation process (S350) by the scenario generation unit 350 allows the scenario registration, the scenario name, and the scenario description to be input through the interface screen, and the estimation period for deriving the estimated financial statement for the management goal And generates scenario information. At this time, the information of the sales, business, purchase, production combination, and the like set by the management target setting unit 210 is selected and included, so that the multidimensional scenario generation is possible. In addition, it is possible to construct multiple scenarios based on the diversity of configurations for each plan area so that multiple outlook results can be derived.

The scenario generation process will be described in detail. First, a status scenario pool is constructed. Then select a scenario from the scenario pool. Configure scenario variables for selected scenarios. The external environment variables such as the exchange rate, interest rate or oil price affecting the increase and decrease of the cost of sales such as sales and purchasing unit prices such as market, market share, market volume, sales unit price and contingent factors such as transfer, recall, strike, Are combined into a combination of scenario variables. Then, the accounts affected by the scenario variables are selected by selecting the financial statement accounts that are affected by the external environment variables and the contingent variables. For the next selected accounts, we set the standard value such as 5 scale for the non-view and optimize, and estimate the influence on the selected accounts for each scenario variable. And, by referring to each scale criterion value, the influence of impact account by scenario variable is arranged by year / month. Separate from the scenario variables, set up the life cycle stages for each industry and place them by year / month. The industry-specific lifecycle can be divided into an introduction period, a growth period, a maturity period, and a decline period. We then set the impact level (level) for each impacted account by stage of the lifecycle by industry. The influence may be configured to be low, medium, or high. Next, the effect value is derived using the statistical data by industry.

Scenarios including the above-described configurations can be created to constitute and utilize separate scenarios in response to requests by external stakeholders for government, accounting settlement and tax reporting, credit rating agency submission, and investor submission.

In addition, based on the contents created by the executives of the company, for the preparation of the source plan of the practitioner, the management of the production and sales / production / purchase / manpower / investment / Scenarios for internal management such as scenarios for controlling and guiding them in comparison with their intended scenarios can be created and utilized.

In the case of external stakeholders or scenarios for internal management, the value of the exogenous variable, the allocation logic or the estimation method may vary depending on the purpose.

The results of the scenario are reflected in the estimated financial statement operation logic after applying the account-based estimation method that reflects the influence of each influence account related to the scenario, reflecting scenario variables and life cycle stages' Simulation results are derived. Then, the estimated financial statements for each scenario are derived, and the scenario is monitored and analyzed.

In addition, the composition of scenarios can be multidimensional in addition to the business portfolio, and multiple scenarios can be derived at the same time so that they can be compared with each other to analyze the differentiation of scenarios. Thereafter, optimization advantages can be derived by selecting a comparative advantage of an execution plan (alternative) that solves the gap between the optimal scenario composition and the target performance.

The scenario history management and selection unit 360 manages the history of the scenarios generated as described above and selects a scenario for estimating the estimated financial statement accounts for supporting the management plan management (S213 ). That is, the generated scenarios are stored and managed in a folder structure of a tree structure. Then, the management plan can be re-estimated by selecting a specific scenario in the future, and the modification of the scenario based on management basic data, management plan, It is also possible.

The financial forecast operation simulation unit 370 simulates a financial forecast operation simulation that derives estimated financial statements for the estimated period using the management basic information, the management goal, the sales plan, the budget plan, the budget procurement plan, and the distribution information of the generated scenario (S370).

Specifically, the financial forecast computation simulation unit 370 calculates the financial forecast computation simulation unit 370 based on the management basic information, the management goal, the sales plan, the budget plan, the budget procurement plan, and the distribution information of the generated scenario, A financial forecast calculation unit 371 for performing a financial forecast calculation process (S371) for estimating account values as the performance by the performance of the management plan for the designated account of the flow chart, a profit and loss statement based on the estimated accounts, And an estimated financial statement derivation unit 373 for performing an estimated financial statement derivation process (S373) that generates an estimated financial statement by estimating the total account of the cash flow statement and the cash flow statement.

Each of the above configurations will be described in more detail as follows.

The financial forecast calculator 371 computes and generates each account of the estimated financial statements by selecting the internal estimation logic from each plan unit output on the interface screen. That is, a calculation engine mounted in the system based on the inputted management basic information for selecting the estimation logic of each plan section and the plan information of each plan section automatically performs estimation calculation for each account of the estimated financial statements, The process of calculating and estimating the values of the estimated accounts set for achieving the management goals in the profit and loss statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow chart in the financial statements is the financial forecast calculation process (S371) of FIG.

The estimated financial statement derivation unit 373 is an engine for deriving the total accounts of the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow statement using the estimated values of the estimated accounts set for achieving the management goals in the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow statement It is implemented and embedded.

The process of deriving the total accounts of the income statement, balance sheet and cash flow statement for deriving the estimated financial statements is as follows.

1) The profit and loss statement (IS) is estimated by the estimation model for each account.

At this time, the interest cost for new borrowings is subject to the circulation logic.

2) The balance sheet (BS) is mainly deduced based on one or more of the sales or cost of sales of IS.

That is, ① changes in balance sheet assets such as facility assets, inventory assets, and trade receivables for sales activities resulting from changes in sales are estimated, and changes in current liabilities such as trade payables are estimated in the balance sheet liability accounts. Fixed liabilities reflect the borrowing plan that is entered in accordance with the type of borrowing. In the case of equity capital, capital increases or decreases as the net profit of IS increases or decreases.

In addition, the increase in new investment costs due to an increase in the size of facility assets, inventory assets, trade receivables, and trade payables for fluctuating sales activities in conjunction with the increase and decrease in sales will increase the existing borrowing plan and net income It is necessary to increase and decrease the amount of new debt and increase / decrease of capital. This is done by reflecting the estimation results of the cash flow statement.

3) Estimation of cash flow statement (CF)

In CF, the above ① is the cash flow due to the business activity of CF, and ② is the cash flow due to the investment activity of CF.

In addition, cash outflows arise from the repayment schedule of external borrowings held by the company, which is indicated by cash flows from financial activities.

Cash flows from financing activities are divided into three categories: (1) cash flow from operating activities of the CF, and (2) cash flow from the investment activities of the CF, so that existing or new, short or long term borrowings balance, balance, And it is estimated that the deficit funds are derived. Specifically, the Minimum Cash Required is entered as a percentage of revenue or as a balance of inventory, and if the maximum short term debt is entered, the short term borrowing entered in Borrowing needed is subtracted New long term debt and equity capital are estimated.

If the cash flow flowing into or out of the company is cash flow surplus, it is not necessary to generate additional borrowings or capital increase, but if there is a short cash flow, it is necessary to generate new borrowings or increase the capital. In particular, if new borrowings arise, it will incur interest expense on new borrowings to IS, and it will be necessary to add new borrowings of CF to the increased interest expenses, and the circulation logic will be created where additional interest expenses are incurred . In this process, the increment of new borrowings in the BS debt account is also made by the circulation logic.

The results and input values calculated by the account model of IS by these estimated financial statement operation structure and logic, the result value calculated by some account model of BS, and the cash flow from CF financial activities When the repayment amount and schedule are entered, the estimated financial statements are automatically calculated and derived. Therefore, the estimated financial statement calculations in which IS, BS, and CF are linked can be used to calculate a specific estimated model for IS accounts such as sales, cost, and profit depending on characteristics of each company, asset accounts, BS, and CF based on the estimation result regardless of the specific estimation model of the liability account. In other words, the characteristics of the business type, revenue, cost, and profit structure to which the company belongs are reflected in the financial calculation process, and the process of deriving the estimated financial statement uses the account information estimated by the financial forecast calculation process, It has the characteristic of deriving the estimated financial statements by estimating the accounts of the income statement, the balance sheet and the cash flow statement regardless of the structure.

The logic of the circular reference can be broken by setting the number of repetition times in which the circulation logic of the IS, BS, and CF as described above is sufficiently performed, or only once, to such an extent that the interest expenses incurred in generating the initial new borrowing can be sufficiently afforded.

The feature of the estimated financial statement derivation unit 373 that is composed of the estimated financial statement calculation engine is that the estimated financial statement calculation in which the IS, BS, and CF are linked does not occur only in the first period, but a plurality of estimated financial statements . In this case, the verification of the estimated financial statement operation over two or more consecutive periods is verified by whether the total of the debtor liabilities and capital is matched with the spokesman asset account of the second consecutive balance sheet.

Since the estimated financial statements are the basis of the company's management performance and financial management, the estimated financial statement calculation engine is a key engine for monitoring and analyzing the company's management performance and financial management.

That is, the estimated financial statement derivation unit 373 uses the account information of the estimated financing estimated by the financial forecast calculation unit 371 to calculate IS (profit and loss statement) / BS (Cash flow statement) and save them separately for each minimum unit. In this process, the CEO, business unit, sales organization, and funds are structured to be highly utilized and the management plan is structurally linked, resulting in real-time estimated financial statements. In this process, the estimated financial statements can be derived for each scenario generated in the scenario generating section without distinguishing between short-term or long-term. In addition, business feasibility is estimated when entering a single project into a scenario. Business unit performance is predicted when the business unit is input. And, transcription performance is predicted at the time of transcription input.

The process of deriving such estimated financial statements is the process of deriving the estimated financial statement of FIG. 2 (S373). It is possible to optimize the management plan and the budget management by the process of deriving the estimated financial statement (S373), to calculate the management plan and the total budget, to establish the monthly management plan in the short term, and to predict the future management performance based on the scenario.

The financial forecast calculation process S371 of the financial forecast calculation unit S371 and the estimated financial statement derivation process S373 of the estimated financial statement derivation unit 373 become the financial forecast calculation simulation process S370.

The monitoring and analyzing unit 400 compares the management performance estimated by the estimated financial statements with the actual management performance during the estimation period to analyze the difference between the management plan and the actual performance (S400 in FIG. 2) .

For this, the monitoring and analysis unit 400 includes an estimation performance analysis unit 420 that compares the management performance estimated by the estimated financial statement derivation unit 373 with the actual management performance during the estimation period, An estimation performance evaluation unit 430 that compares the financial ratio information derived from the analysis unit 420 with the actual management performance information and generates evaluation information on the estimated performance by analyzing the credit rating and the financing cost, A financing simulation unit 440 for performing simulation on financing to reduce the difference in funding settings analyzed in the financial planning unit 440 and outputting an improved financing plan, An enterprise value calculation unit 450 for calculating an enterprise value based on the analysis data of the estimation performance analysis unit and the credit rating and financing cost analysis information analyzed by the estimation performance evaluation unit, Based on the estimation data of the financial statement derivation unit 373, the analysis data of the estimation performance analysis unit 420, and the enterprise value information, the risk of each scenario for the sensitivity risk and the risk profit is analyzed and the optimal management scenario is derived And an optimum scenario selection unit 460 for selecting the optimal scenario.

The estimation performance analyzing unit 420 analyzes the difference between the management goal and the management plan to grasp the adequacy of the management plan for the management goal and analyzes the difference between the management plan and the actual performance, A break-even point (BEP) analysis unit 422 for deriving a break-even point through analysis of variable and fixed costs, a cost analysis unit 422 for analyzing a cost for achieving a business goal for each business type including manufacturing, distribution, (423), Business Feasibility Analysis Division (424), which derives business feasibility evaluation index for business feasibility evaluation and business feasibility priority, and one or more of profitability, growth potential, stability and activity index based on estimated financial statement results A financial ratio analyzing unit 425 for analyzing the financial ratio by deriving the financial ratio indicator including the interest rate, and deriving the liquidity gap to derive the liquidity gap from the estimated cash flow table (426), and performs the estimation performance analysis process (S420).

The performance gap analyzer 421 is configured to analyze the overall COA account differences such as sales, cost, profit, cost, assets, liabilities, and cash flow. The Performance Gap Analysis Division compares various management plans for achieving management goals when establishing a budget plan, and selects a management plan that is deemed to be most suitable for achieving management goals as a budget plan or master scenario. This budget plan or master scenario should always be displayed on the output screen unchanged (although budget plans and master scenarios may change as future plans are re-planned)

The performance gap analyzer 421 deduces and analyzes the difference between the management goal and the scenario management plan for the master scenario for the budget, etc., so as to determine the appropriateness of the plan against the target. Then, the difference between the estimation result of the management plan selected as the master scenario and the performance result of the actual estimation period is analyzed and extracted. This makes it possible to perform goal setting and financial forecasting. Intuitively verify the financial feasibility and improve the accuracy of the management plan. In addition, short-term execution management can be performed and, in conjunction with this, long-term goal management can be performed. In addition, it is possible to grasp the cause of the slump and improve it. At this time, detailed factors are analyzed by a drill down method. Also, it should be able to check whether the achievement is achieved or not. The performance analysis process (S421) of FIG. 2 is the overall comparative analysis of the management objectives, the management plan for each scenario, and the actual management performance during the estimation period as described above.

The break-even point (BEP) analyzing unit 422 analyzes the variable ratio and the fixed ratio of the estimated financial statements and derives a break-even point that allows the company to understand how many items must be sold to achieve the target profit. The process of deriving the break-even point is the breakeven point (BEP) analysis process (S422) of FIG.

The cost analysis unit 423 calculates the average revenue per unit of input (ARPU) by using the account of the estimated financial statement, matches the purchase cost of the sales and outsourcing costs, commodities, and raw materials, It is calculated to calculate the operating profit by item and to derive the unit cost in the case of manufacturing industry. With the above-described configuration, when the standard unit cost is derived, the company can establish a cost target that manages to minimize the difference from the actual cost that occurs when the company actually produces or distributes the item. The process of estimating the cost is the cost analysis process (S423) of FIG.

The business feasibility analysis unit 424 uses the estimated financial statement to calculate ROE (Return on Equity), ROA (Return on Asset), IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), MIRR Return validity, BCR (Benefit-Cost Ratio) and PI (Profitability Index) are used to derive business feasibility priorities for the scenarios. In other words, mid / long-term financial forecasts can be carried out by the cash flow statement (CF) of the estimated financial statements, and business feasibility is analyzed and evaluated. In addition, business feasibility assessment results can be used to perform post-management of business feasibility through re-planning. Evaluate enterprise-wide financial forecasts of new businesses and enable them to assess business feasibility when combining existing enterprise portfolio with new business or new business portfolio. That is, the business feasibility analysis section 424 is configured to perform verification of business feasibility of a scenario-specific management plan, diversification of investment types, business diversification, management of integrated overseas business, and financial feasibility verification of management strategy.

Using the above-described scenario-specific estimated financial statements, it is possible to derive priorities for business feasibility by analyzing business feasibility by scenarios, to derive mid to long-term financial forecasts, to derive a re-plan, to evaluate enterprisewide financial forecasts of new projects, The process of analyzing the feasibility of business feasibility assessment, scenario validation (or management plan?), Analyzing feasibility of business, diversification of investment type, diversification of business, integration management of overseas business, (S425).

The financial ratio analysis process (S425) is configured to analyze profitability, growth, stability, and activity indicators based on the results of the estimated financial statements. The analysis of profitability index is based on the calculation formula of sales OP margin, sales net profit margin, sales gross profit margin (business margin), equity return, total assets margin, and return on capital investment. The analysis of the stability index is based on the calculation formula of the liquidity ratio, the checking ratio, the cash ratio, the debt ratio, the dependency on borrowing, the interest compensation ratio, the cash compensation ratio, the financial cost burden ratio, The analysis of activity indicators includes total assets turnover, trade receivable turnover, trade receivable turnover, inventory turnover, inventory turnover period, trade debt turnover, trade payable turnover period, capital turnover, long-term operating asset turnover, The formula is applied. The growth rate index is calculated based on sales growth rate, operating profit growth rate, net profit growth rate, and total asset growth rate. In the productivity index analysis, the calculation formula of value added rate, value added per person is applied. The result of the financial ratio analysis as described above can be provided as a decision index. The process of analyzing the financial ratios becomes the financial ratio analysis process (S425) of FIG.

The liquidity gap deriving unit 426 is configured to derive the deficit funds from the estimated cash flow table in the estimated financial statements. In other words, it reflects asset liability management (ALM), which is a process of deriving by using the minimum cash required and the gap between duration of short-term debt and duration of sales activity assets We derive tribal funds. This derivation process of the deficit funds becomes the flow gap derivation process (S426) of FIG.

The BEP analysis process S422, the cost analysis process S423, the business feasibility analysis process S424, the financial affinity analysis process S422, The ratio analysis process (S425) and the flow gap derivation process (S426) constitute the detailed process of the estimation performance analysis process (S420).

The estimation performance evaluation unit 430 includes a credit rating diagnosis unit 431 for comparing the actual management performance information of the financial statement and the estimation period with the data of the other system DB to calculate the current credit rating of the company, An industrial average comparator 433 for comparing the average of the financial ratios with the industry average and outputting information about the appropriate financial ratios, an analysis unit 433 for analyzing the estimated financial statements and calculating the financial ratio information or the liquidity gap information A credit rating analyzing unit 435 for estimating a credit rating for the future using one or more of the management plans, and a financing cost analyzing unit 437 for analyzing capital costs and other capital costs for the management plan , And evaluates the estimated performance.

The credit grade diagnosis unit 431 is configured to diagnose the current credit rating. The credit rating diagnosis unit 431 may include information on the inputted settlement account information and other systems (e.g., QuickBooks, DUZON, etc.) collected by the other system DB calling unit 150 And to diagnose the current credit rating of the enterprise. The process of performing the current credit rating diagnosis of the above company becomes the credit rating diagnostic process S431 of FIG.

The industry average comparison and analysis unit 433 compares and analyzes the financial ratios of the company and the peer industry to derive the appropriate level of financial ratios so that the target guidelines can be presented, And a position such as a contrast, an upper, a lower, a deviation relative to an average, and the like. The process of comparative analysis of the corporate financial ratios with the industry averages becomes the industry average comparison analysis process (S433) of FIG.

The credit rating analyzer 435 can check the potential credit rating by predicting the future credit rating. The credit rating analyzer 435 reflects the credit rating improvement plan, To estimate the credit rating of the user. Predictions of future credit ratings can be made when increasing sales, performance, etc., or after receiving a consulting plan.

The process of predicting the future credit rating of the company using the above-described estimated financial statements becomes the credit rating analysis process (S435) of FIG.

The financing cost analyzing unit 437 receives the optimized financing plan derived by the financing procurement simulation unit 440 and analyzes funding costs for analyzing the capital cost for capital procurement and the capital cost for others, To perform a financing cost analysis process (S437).

The credit rating analysis process S431, the industry average comparison analysis process S433, the credit rating analysis process S435 and the financing cost analysis process S437 of the estimation performance evaluation unit 430 are performed in the estimation performance evaluation (S430).

The financing simulation unit 440 is configured to perform a simulation process (S440) for establishing a borrowing, equity financing, or cost planning for financing. To this end, the fund procurement simulation unit 440 includes a cost reduction simulation unit 441 for establishing a cost policy to cover the deficit fund by adjusting the cost plan, a borrowing procurement simulation for generating a debt portfolio for borrowing the deficit fund from the outside (443), the equity financing simulation department which establishes capital policies including the capital increase for raising tribal funds by equity capital, the timing of IPOs, the adjustment of public shares, the size of procurement by corporate disclosure, and the adjustment of dividend policies 445), or an asset sale simulation unit 447 that establishes an asset sale or business restructuring policy that is funded by one or more of the sale of some of the assets or business restructuring.

The cost reduction simulation unit 441 is configured to perform a simulation of the cost plan for deducting the deficit funds from the cost plan through deduction of the deficit funds. The process of performing the simulation on the cost plan for the provision of the deficient funds becomes the cost saving simulation process (S441) of FIG. In this case, a cost-saving optimization simulation should be performed in which the maximization of the cost saving is obtained as a result of the configuration of the self-effort effort cost planning to be the simulation target.

The borrowing procurement simulation unit 443 is a combination of the debt construction and the domestic procurement etc. Foreign procurement, fixed interest rate etc. The optimal debt portfolio for each size of multidimensional debt financing method such as variable interest rate and currency procurement is predicted by estimating the procurement cost per procurement source or debt component unit and using this simulation to derive a debt portfolio whose procurement cost is minimized In order to reduce debt procurement costs by deriving the appropriate debt portfolio, it is configured to derive the debt portfolio by simulating borrowing from the outside as much as the deficit funds. For example, by conducting the financial forecasting process again, we can deduce the estimated financial statement results from the portfolio portfolio and compare the interest expense on the debts based on the result. do.

This appropriate debt portfolio simulation technique applies to equity financing, cost reduction, asset sale, and business portfolio adjustment. As described above, the process of performing the borrowing simulation on the deficient funds becomes the borrowing procurement simulation process (S443) of FIG.

The equity capital procurement simulation unit 445 is configured to perform a simulation of procurement of deficit funds as equity capital. These simulations include rights offering, timing of IPO, number of public shares, estimating the size of the procurement by disclosure, and adjusting the dividend policy. The simulation process for the equity capital procurement with respect to the shortage fund as described above is the equity capital procurement simulation process (S445) of FIG.

In the above-mentioned equity capital procurement simulation process (S445), deduction of the cost of equity capital procurement and maximization of procurement effect are deduced as a result of simulation of the capital increase, IPO timing, number of public shares, estimation of procurement size by disclosure, Capitalization simulation is performed.

The asset sale simulation unit 447 is configured to perform a simulation of a plan for selling a part of assets for procurement of deficit funds. At this time, business restructuring can also be included. The process of performing the simulation of the asset sale plan for financing the auxiliary financing described above becomes the asset sale simulation process (S447) of FIG.

In the above-described asset sale simulation process (S447), optimization simulation is performed in which asset sales and maximization of business restructuring effects are derived as a result of the asset sale configuration to be a simulation target.

One or more of the above-described cost reduction simulation process S441, the borrowing procurement simulation process S443, the equity capital procurement simulation process S445, or the asset sale simulation process S447 may be performed in the financing simulation process S440 of FIG. Respectively. When the one or more simulation processes described above are operated, optimization of the integrated simulation result of the financing simulation should be made such that the effect of the result of each simulation process is maximized.

The entrepreneur value-of-government 450 determines the enterprise value based on the estimated data of the estimated financial statement derivation unit 373, the analysis data of the estimation performance analysis unit, and the credit rating and funding cost analysis information analyzed by the estimation performance evaluation unit (S450). The enterprise value calculation consists of the cash flow from the operating activities of the enterprise and the weighted average financing costs of the capital and the capital raised for the business activities of the enterprise in the denominator by the enterprise value calculation method (model). The cash flow from the business activities of a molecular firm is secured by the calculation of the estimated financial statement and the denominator weighted average financing cost is derived from the cost of capital procurement of the appropriate debt portfolio derived from the chime procurement simulation department, Of the cost of capital procurement. It is derived automatically by the corporate value calculation method utilizing the secured data.

The optimal scenario selection unit 460 is configured to perform the optimal scenario selection process S460 of FIG. 2 that allows the user to select an optimal scenario. By analyzing the generated two or more scenarios, A sensitivity analysis unit 463 for analyzing the sensitivity of the scenario extracted by the scenario comparison and analysis unit 461 according to environmental index variation, A risk profit analyzing unit 465 for deriving the most efficient investment opportunity set by simulating an optimal composition ratio of the return rate sets to each risk after constructing a risk rate return ratio set based on the analysis by the sensitivity risk analyzing unit 463, In the optimal investment opportunity set derived from the profit analysis unit 465, the utility function reflecting the investment / risk propensity of the CEO and the long- And an optimum scenario deriving unit 467 for deriving the scenario closest to the target as the optimal scenario.

The scenario comparison / analysis unit 461 compares and analyzes two or more generated scenarios, and performs a comparison analysis for each scenario / alternative. And predicts the result of alternative execution. The process of comparing these scenarios becomes the scenario comparison analysis process (S461) of FIG.

The sensitivity risk analyzing unit 463 generates a risk countermeasure method on the assumption that the sensitivity according to the environmental index variation is higher than the reference value and the environmental indexes are changed according to the scenarios and the scenario is modified according to the generated risk countermeasure method do. In other words, the sensitivity to be measured through simulations to see how the profit of gross profit, operating profit, net present value (NPV) fluctuates sensitively when major variables of environmental indicators such as exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate, And performs the risk analysis process (S463). In this case, the unit of measurement is the change in profit (standard deviation, σ) when the main variable is changed, and the greater the risk, the greater the risk. The sensitivity risk analysis criteria are profitability, stability (debt ratio / credit rating core index), and volatility of corporate value. The sensitivity risk analysis process (S463) of FIG. 2 corresponds to the process of analyzing the sensitivity risk of the environmental index by each scenario.

This sensitivity risk analysis can predict the future management environment, and can make a power decision that establishes corporate survival and development strategy corresponding to it. In addition, And financial management strategies, crisis response strategies, and sensitivity management strategies.

Assuming a normal distribution, it is not used for the analysis of variables that have the nature of options (eg, option interest rate swaps, convert options, various interest rate swaps, etc.). The sensitivity risk analysis unit 463 requires an association with the risk profit analysis unit 465 for F / X, interest rate, liquidity risk, and profit volatility.

The risk profit analyzing unit 465 can perform a stress test, proactive prediction / inspection of management risk, support for contingency response, minimization of risk damage, establishment of a preemptive management response strategy, and risk metering It is structured to select the key risk indicators that the company should manage and to construct a scenario based on this to operate the risk management system.

For this, the risk profit analyzer 465 constructs a profit set against the risk (profit volatility) based on the sensitivity analysis. At this time, correlation between each risk (correlation, ρ) is considered. From the above data, a distributed covariance matrix is derived, and based on this, a portfolio for each business is simulated. We derive optimal composition ratio of each business. In this case, assuming a normal distribution, it is reasonable to derive the composition ratio through the sharp ratio. The Efficient Frontier is derived by simulating the optimum composition ratio of each risk versus risk ratio, and the business structure validity priority for each core evaluation index is derived by performing risk measurement and evaluation, list limit management, and stress test do. The process of analyzing the risk profit described above becomes the risk profit analysis process (S465) of FIG.

The optimal scenario derivation unit 467 can implement an alternative derivation process, select an optimal alternative, perform portfolio optimization and post management, construct an optimal business portfolio and derive a business portfolio It is possible to construct strategic alternatives for various strategic scenarios, to optimally allocate investment resources to achieve strategic objectives according to changes in the corporate environment, to achieve balanced allocation of resources and to internalize the decision-making process, (S467) of Fig. 2, which enables the designing of an alternative structure by the user, execution of a decision support solution, and the like.

Specifically, the optimal scenario deriving unit 467 applies two methods to derive the most appropriate scenarios from the optimal investment opportunity set derived from the risk profit analyzing unit. The first is to derive the most appropriate business portfolio by applying the utility function reflecting the investment / risk propensity of the CEO, and second, the scenario analysis to derive the business portfolio that meets the mid- and long-term profit targets. The process of deriving such an optimal scenario becomes the above described optimum scenario deriving process (S467).

The optimal scenario selection process S460 includes the scenario comparison analysis unit 461, the sensitivity risk analysis unit 463, the risk profit analysis unit 465, and the optimal scenario derivation unit 467. [

As described above, after the management objective is set, the respective costs are estimated, the budget procurement plan is determined according to the estimated cost, and the resources for the enterprise common cost and common assets, common liabilities, common capital, After the estimated financial statements are derived from the generated management plans for each scenario, the estimation results analyzed by using the estimated financial statements are analyzed and the countermeasures for dealing with the deficient fund procurement by simulation are described in the management plan It is fed back for re-establishment. This process is a feedback process (S500) of FIG.

The performance gap analysis result data derived by the performance gap analysis process S421 of the performance gap analyzer 421 in the feedback process S500 is fed back to the management plan unit 200 and the management plan process (S200). In addition, the performance data of the estimated period is input through the financial statement input unit 113 so that it can be utilized as management basic information for establishing the re-management plan, and is reflected in the process of establishing the re-management plan.

The management plan management support system of the present invention having the above-described configuration can be implemented by a code executed by a computer. The management plan management support system of the present invention includes a recording medium on which a code embodying the management plan management support method is recorded, And a computer system equipped with a code implementing the management plan management support method.

100: management basic information setting section 200: management plan section
300: Boat part 400: Monitoring and analysis part
500:

Claims (9)

delete delete A management plan management support method by a management plan management support system including a management basic information setting unit, a management plan unit, a scenario generating unit, a financial forecast calculation simulation unit, a monitoring and analysis unit, and a feedback unit,
The company basic information is set by receiving the accumulated settlement account information of the company and the estimation methods of the accounts through the management basic information setting unit, the business type is selected from the company basic information, and the entire business portfolio of the company / And the accounting account (COA, code of account) of the company's accumulated accounts is mapped with a formalized estimated account, and the accounting account for the estimated financial statements of the management accounting standard that reflects the monthly data derived through the management plan A master plan consisting of the information to be selected in the management plan so that the management plan can be created and the management plan can be established. Management basic information setting process to be performed;
A management plan process in which the management plan section establishes a budget plan and a budget procurement plan for setting a management goal and achieving a management goal using management basic data including the company basic information;
A scenario generation process for generating a scenario in which a business portfolio, an item or a business unit, a budget plan and a budget procurement plan, and a distribution information are collected by the scenario generation unit for setting a management goal and achieving a management goal;
In order to optimize the management plan and the budget management, and to calculate the management plan and the total budget, establish the short-term monthly management plan, and predict the future management performance based on the scenario, Estimates for the designated accounts in the financial statements' balance sheet, balance sheet and cash flow statement based on management basic information, management objectives, sales plan, budget plan, budget procurement plan, A simulation of a financial forecasting operation that estimates account values as a result of performance of a management plan during a period and generates an estimated financial statement by estimating the total account of the profit and loss account, the balance sheet and the cash flow statement based on the estimated accounts;
Monitoring and analyzing the difference between the actual result of the management plan and the actual result of the management plan by comparing the actual management performance during the estimation period by the monitoring and analyzing unit; And
And a feedback process for feeding back the difference analyzed by the feedback unit to the management plan unit to re-establish the management plan,
The management basic information setting process includes:
The company basic information setting unit allows the company to input the accumulated settlement account information, to invoke the information of the other system DB to be reflected, and to set the company basic information by inputting the estimation methods for the accounts Information setting process;
The business type is set from the company basic information, the entire business portfolio information including all business units and items is inputted, and the accounting account is created by mapping the COA (code of account) of the company with the standardized estimated account A master system setting process that establishes a master system that includes management basic data composed of information to be selected in the management plan so that the company management plan can be established; And
And a plan frame basic setting process for selecting and setting an estimation period of the management plan for supporting management plan management,
In the master system setting process,
An industry selection process for selecting a business type of company for the management plan;
A business unit and an item formation process that inputs a portfolio of company / business unit / item so that one or more of the company / business unit / item unit portfolio can be selected; And
And a COA estimation account selection step of mapping the code of account (COA) of the financial statement to an estimation account for the estimated financial statements derived through the management plan,
Wherein the management plan process includes:
A management goal including a monthly management plan is set up using cumulative accounting information of the accumulated accounting information of the company of the management basic data, and a sales target, a net profit target, a holding cash target, a debt A process of establishing a management target to set a ratio reduction target and a target enterprise value;
A business portfolio selection process in which one or more business portfolios are selected and set for the company / business unit / item-based portfolio to achieve the set management goal;
An exogenous variable constructing process that constructs exogenous variables to select the exogenous variables influencing the management related to the management objectives and the business portfolio among the exogenous variables of the set management basic information data and to reflect them in the estimation of the management plan;
An estimation method selection process for selecting an estimation method for estimating the account performance and the financial result within the estimation period for each estimated estimation account;
A budget plan process for establishing a sales plan for achieving a management goal of the selected scenario and then generating a budget including a sales cost; And
And a budget procurement plan process for establishing a budget procurement plan for procuring the budget generated in the budget plan process,
The budget plan process includes:
A sales plan process for establishing a sales plan by analyzing sales for achieving the above management goals;
Estimates the cost of goods, including production costs, purchasing costs, and manpower costs, by estimating the unit cost of the cost by estimating the ratio of the cost of sales to the past sales performance of the company and inputting the unit price and quantity in the unit price * A cost of sales plan that estimates the purchase obligation by using the cost of goods sold / the payables turnover rate, estimates the inventory assets by the cost of goods sold / inventory turnover, and establishes the cost of sales plan for achieving the sales plan;
A production plan process for setting a production budget for achieving the sales plan;
A purchase plan process for setting a purchase budget for achieving the sales plan;
Manpower plan is set up by using the manpower input plan for each sales unit, personnel expenses expenses, personnel cost per manpower / cost center / position, manpower plan is selected, direct and overhead expenses are selected, A manpower planning process in which production manpower is included in manufacturing cost, sales force manpower is included in the SGP, and a manpower budget is set for achieving the sales plan; And
Estimates of depreciation cost of plant facility are estimated from the manufacturing source, and the depreciation cost of the office is estimated from the depreciation cost of office, And other cost plan process for estimating the ratio of the company's past sales performance to total other expenses and establishing a plan for the other expenses. How to support management plan management for support.
4. The method as claimed in claim 3,
An exogenous variable input process for entering externally relevant variables to select exogenous variables for the management plan composition;
A settlement inputting step of inputting the settlement of accounts;
It provides financial statement data of other system DBs as input and receipt and provides them as financial statements information. It also provides for credit rating analysis for current credit rating prediction or future credit rating prediction. Other system DB calling process that provides comparison data for confirming positioning of management performance; And
For each estimated account mapped to the accounting account of the accounts by the master system setting process, it is possible to estimate the performance of each account within the estimation period and the estimation method for the prediction of the financial result or the distribution logic for distribution, And a distribution logic and an estimation method inputting at least one of the estimation method and the distribution logic. The method of supporting management plan management for short-term monthly enterprise management plan management support.
delete delete delete 4. The method according to claim 3,
An asset plan process for establishing an asset plan for asset composition of the balance sheet necessary for carrying out the above-mentioned budget plan based on an income statement account;
An investment plan process for establishing an investment plan and an asset disposition plan based on the asset plan centered on the balance sheet account; And
And a funding plan process for establishing a funding plan necessary for carrying out an asset plan, an investment plan, and an asset disposition plan based on the asset plan and the investment plan, and a short-term monthly enterprise management plan management support Management plan management support method for.
The method according to claim 8,
Further comprising establishing budgetary procurement for the balance sheet accounts other than the accounts for which the funding plan and the investment plan have been established by the funding plan process and the investment plan process, How to support management plan management for support.

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