WO2015178092A1 - Dispositif d'évaluation de plan de réparation, procédé d'évaluation de plan de réparation et programme - Google Patents

Dispositif d'évaluation de plan de réparation, procédé d'évaluation de plan de réparation et programme Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2015178092A1
WO2015178092A1 PCT/JP2015/058711 JP2015058711W WO2015178092A1 WO 2015178092 A1 WO2015178092 A1 WO 2015178092A1 JP 2015058711 W JP2015058711 W JP 2015058711W WO 2015178092 A1 WO2015178092 A1 WO 2015178092A1
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work
plan
information
repair
repair plan
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PCT/JP2015/058711
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English (en)
Japanese (ja)
Inventor
亜梨子 岡部
玉置　研二
博幸 真柄
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株式会社日立製作所
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/10—Services
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/40—Business processes related to the transportation industry

Definitions

  • the present invention relates to a repair plan evaluation apparatus, a repair plan evaluation method, and a program.
  • the present invention claims the priority of Japanese Patent Application No. 2014-106845 filed on May 23, 2014, and for the designated countries where weaving by reference is allowed, the contents described in the application are as follows: Is incorporated into this application by reference.
  • Patent Document 1 includes a node indicating the number line from the number line definition data that associates the content of the predetermined process with the number line that performs the process and the route definition data that defines the route direction of the number line in the vehicle base.
  • the composition is performed based on the stored vehicle base layout network.
  • Initial replacement having a plurality of replacement patterns consisting of information on processing performed after entering the vehicle base and ending after the predetermined processing is completed and information on number lines usable for the processing.
  • a replacement pattern selection and time determination means for creating a replacement sequence and storing it in the memory, and when there is a conflicting process between the created replacement sequence and a replacement sequence of another organization
  • a replacement sequence creation device is described.
  • the vehicle base premises exchange sequence creation device described in Patent Document 1 adds a repair work to a work plan for maintenance work, rebuilds the work plan, and estimates whether each vehicle can be delivered at a predetermined time.
  • the work time such as repair work and maintenance work included in the work plan is, for example, an estimated value obtained from a conventional work result, and an error may occur between the work time and the actual work time. Further, due to such an error, there arises a problem that the vehicle cannot be delivered at the originally scheduled delivery request time.
  • the work plan generated using the estimated value of the unconfirmed parameter has a risk of delay when a deviation from the actual work time occurs.
  • an object of the present invention is to provide a repair plan evaluation apparatus that can evaluate a delay risk of a repair plan and identify a repair plan with a lower risk.
  • a repair plan evaluation apparatus is a repair plan evaluation apparatus that evaluates a delay risk of a repair plan plan, and includes a calculation unit, which is an expected value of an undetermined parameter.
  • a work plan for each maintenance base where repair is performed is generated using a repair plan including the above, a deviation value from the expected value of the uncertain parameter is calculated, and the deviation value is reflected in the expected value
  • a simulation process for generating a work plan and obtaining a delay time of a vehicle included in the work plan is executed a plurality of times, and using the result of the simulation process, the delay risk of the repair plan used for generating the work plan Is calculated.
  • the repair plan evaluation apparatus can specify a repair plan with lower risk.
  • FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of a vehicle operation system 1000 having a repair plan evaluation apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment.
  • the vehicle operation system 1000 includes a repair plan evaluation device 100 installed in a control center, a vehicle information management device 150 installed in each vehicle, and a maintenance site information management device 170 installed in each maintenance site. is doing.
  • the repair plan evaluation device 100, the vehicle information management device 150, and the maintenance site information management device 170 are each connected to be communicable via a predetermined network T such as the Internet.
  • a predetermined network T such as the Internet.
  • this embodiment demonstrates the example which applied the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100 to the operation system of a rail vehicle, this invention is not limited to this embodiment, For example, an aircraft, a ship, a bus, etc. It is also possible to apply to one maintenance mode (maintenance service) of the operation system in the operation service.
  • the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100 is an apparatus that evaluates repair plan proposal information.
  • the repair plan evaluation device 100 includes failure information acquired from the vehicle information management device 150 of the failed vehicle, operation plan information acquired from an operation management system (not shown) included in the control center, and maintenance base information.
  • the delay risk of the repair plan information generated using the information regarding the resource of the maintenance base acquired from the management apparatus 170 is calculated.
  • the failure information includes, for example, a vehicle ID for identifying the failed vehicle and information on the failure type.
  • the operation plan information includes, for example, a vehicle ID, a station name included in the planned operation route of the vehicle, and information on the arrival and departure times of each station.
  • the resource-related information includes, for example, a maintenance base ID for identifying the maintenance base, and the type of resource that the maintenance base has (for example, equipment that the maintenance base has, maintenance parts used for maintenance work, and worker skills, etc.) And the location information of the maintenance base.
  • FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of a functional block showing a functional configuration of the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100.
  • the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100 includes a calculation unit 1, a storage unit 2, a display unit 3, and a communication unit 4.
  • the storage unit 2 includes a work time result storage unit 200, a penalty condition storage unit 210, a maintenance site resource storage unit 220, a work plan storage unit 250, a work plan request condition storage unit 280, and a repair plan draft list.
  • a storage unit 290 and an undetermined parameter storage unit 300 are included.
  • the work time result storage unit 200 stores work time result information 201.
  • the work time record information 201 is used, for example, when the repair plan generation unit 12 of the calculation unit 1 calculates the repair time, or when the work plan generation unit 13 calculates the work time of the regular maintenance work at the maintenance base.
  • FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of the work time record information 201.
  • the work time record information 201 is information including the work time of work performed in the past.
  • the work time record information 201 includes a plurality of records in which a work start date / time field 202, a work type ID field 203, and a work time field 204 are associated with each other.
  • the work start date and time is information indicating the work start date and time specified by the work type ID.
  • the work type ID is information for identifying a predetermined work type such as periodic maintenance work, repair work, warehousing work, for example.
  • the work time is information indicating the work time of the associated work type.
  • Penalty condition storage unit 210 stores penalty condition information 211.
  • the penalty condition information 211 is used, for example, when the delay risk calculation unit 15 of the calculation unit 1 calculates the delay risk using the penalty cost.
  • FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of penalty condition information 211.
  • the penalty condition information 211 is information including penalty costs when a delay or suspension occurs in the operation of the vehicle.
  • the penalty condition information 211 has a plurality of records in which an event field 212 and a penalty cost field 213 are associated with each other.
  • the event is information indicating suspension and delay time.
  • the penalty cost is information indicating the penalty cost corresponding to the suspension or delay time.
  • the maintenance base resource storage unit 220 stores information on maintenance base resources (for example, facilities). Specifically, the maintenance site resource storage unit 220 stores maintenance site classification information 221, maintenance site resource information 231, and maintenance site resource presence / absence information 241. These pieces of information are information shared between the maintenance base information management apparatuses 170 of the respective maintenance bases, and the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100 performs predetermined maintenance at a predetermined timing (for example, once every 30 minutes). Obtained from the site information management apparatus 170.
  • FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of the maintenance base division information 221.
  • the maintenance site classification information 221 is used when the repair plan generation unit 12 of the computing unit 1 generates repair plan proposal information or when the work plan generation unit 13 generates work plan information at the maintenance site.
  • the maintenance site classification information 221 includes a plurality of records in which a site classification field 222, a maintenance site ID field 223, and a maintenance site name field 224 are associated with each other.
  • the base division is information indicating the division (type) of the maintenance base, and includes, for example, a maintenance depot and a station.
  • the maintenance base ID is information for identifying the maintenance base.
  • the maintenance base name is information indicating the name of the maintenance base.
  • FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of the maintenance base resource information 231.
  • the maintenance base resource information 231 is used when the repair plan generation unit 12 of the calculation unit 1 generates repair plan proposal information, or when the work plan generation unit 13 generates work plan information at the maintenance base.
  • the maintenance base resource information 231 has a plurality of records in which a maintenance base ID field 232, a resource classification field 233, a resource type field 234, and a resource ID field 235 are associated with each other.
  • the maintenance base ID is information for identifying the maintenance base, and is information common to the maintenance base ID of the maintenance base classification information 221.
  • the resource classification is information indicating a predetermined resource classification provided in the maintenance base such as equipment, maintenance parts, and skills. The skill indicates a skill related to the work of the maintenance worker.
  • the resource type is information indicating a resource type that further refines the resource classification, and includes, for example, equipment 1 to X, maintenance parts 1 to X, and skills 1 to X (all X ⁇ 2).
  • a plurality of resource types may be associated with one resource category.
  • the resource ID is information for identifying a resource type.
  • the resource ID field 235 stores a plurality of resource IDs corresponding to the resource types.
  • FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of the maintenance base resource presence / absence information 241.
  • the maintenance site resource presence / absence information 241 is used when the repair plan generation unit 12 of the calculation unit 1 generates repair plan proposal information or when the work plan generation unit 13 generates work plan information at the maintenance site.
  • the maintenance base resource presence / absence information 241 includes a plurality of records in which a maintenance base ID field 242 and a resource presence / absence field 243 are associated with each other.
  • the resource presence / absence field 243 is associated with all resource types such as equipment 1 to X, maintenance parts 1 to X, and skills 1 to X (all X ⁇ 2), and is identified by the maintenance base ID.
  • the type of resources that the base has is represented as a star chart.
  • the work plan storage unit 250 stores information related to the work plan at the maintenance site. Specifically, the work plan storage unit 250 stores work schedule information 251, allocation information 261, and delivery information 271. These pieces of information are information that the maintenance base information management apparatus 170 of each maintenance base has, and the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100 manages each maintenance base information at a predetermined timing (for example, once every 30 minutes). Obtained from device 170.
  • FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of the work schedule information 251.
  • the work schedule information 251 is used when the work plan generation unit 13 generates work plan information.
  • the work schedule information 251 includes information related to the work schedule for each maintenance base, and includes a work ID field 253, a vehicle ID field 254, a work type ID field 255, a work start time field 256, and a work end time field 257. It has a plurality of associated records. Further, one work schedule information 251 is associated with a maintenance base ID 252 for identifying a maintenance base.
  • the work ID is information for identifying a work.
  • the vehicle ID is information for identifying the vehicle.
  • the work type ID is information for identifying the type of work.
  • the types of work include regular maintenance work, repair work, warehousing work, warehousing work, and moving work within the maintenance base.
  • the work start time is information indicating the start time of each work.
  • the work end time is information indicating the end time of each work.
  • FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of the allocation information 261.
  • the allocation information 261 is used when the work plan generation unit 13 generates work plan information.
  • the allocation information 261 includes information for specifying resources necessary for work, and has a plurality of records in which a work ID field 262 and a resource ID field 263 are associated with each other.
  • the work ID is information for identifying the work, and is information common to the work ID of the work schedule information 251.
  • the resource ID is information for identifying a resource necessary for the work identified by the work ID.
  • FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of the delivery information 271.
  • the outgoing information 271 is used when the work plan generation unit 13 generates work plan information.
  • the exit information 271 includes information related to the exit time of the vehicle, and includes a plurality of records in which the vehicle ID field 272 and the exit request time field 273 are associated with each other.
  • the vehicle ID is information for identifying the vehicle, and is information common to the work ID of the work schedule information 251.
  • the outgoing request time is information indicating the outgoing request time from the maintenance base.
  • NULL is stored in the delivery request
  • the delivery information 271 is synchronized with the operation change information described later, and when the operation change information is generated by the operation management system, the exit request time included in the information is displayed in the exit request time field 273 of the exit information 271. Stored.
  • the work plan request condition storage unit 280 stores work plan request condition information 281.
  • the work plan request condition information 281 is information generated when the work plan generation unit 13 of the calculation unit 1 calculates the work time of each work type at the maintenance base, for example.
  • FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of the work plan request condition information 281.
  • the work plan request condition information 281 has a plurality of records in which a work type ID field 282, a resource type field 283, and a standard work time field 284 are associated with each other.
  • the work type ID is information for identifying the type of work, and is information common to the work type ID of the work schedule information 251.
  • the resource type is information indicating the type of resource with more detailed resource classification, and is information common to the resource type of the maintenance base resource information 231.
  • the standard work time is information indicating a standard work time of a work type (for example, regular maintenance work or repair work) specified by each work type ID.
  • the repair plan list storage unit 290 stores repair plan list information 291.
  • the repair plan list information 291 corresponds to the delay risk calculation unit 15 of the calculation unit 1 corresponding to the predetermined items included in the repair plan plan information and the delay risk of the work plan information generated using the repair plan plan information. It is the information stored with the attachment.
  • FIG. 12 is a diagram showing an example of the repair plan list information 291.
  • the repair plan list information 291 includes a plurality of records in which a plan number field 292, a maintenance base ID field 293, an operation service stop time field 294, and a delay risk field 295 are associated with each other. is doing.
  • the plan No. is information indicating the identification number of the plan, and is information common to the plan No. included in the repair plan information.
  • the maintenance base ID is information for identifying the maintenance base, and is information common to the maintenance base ID of the maintenance base classification information 221.
  • the operation service stop time is information indicating the time at which the operation service of the broken vehicle is stopped.
  • the delay risk is information indicating the type (for example, delay occurrence probability) and the magnitude of the delay risk.
  • the unconfirmed parameter storage unit 300 stores information on predetermined unconfirmed parameters (for example, the maintenance work time at the maintenance site, the repair time of the failed vehicle, and the time when the failed vehicle enters the maintenance site). Specifically, the unconfirmed parameter storage unit 300 stores distribution definition information 301 and unconfirmed parameter definition information 311.
  • FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of the distribution definition information 301.
  • the distribution definition information 301 is information stored in the storage unit 2 in advance by the user of the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100, and is used for repair plan evaluation processing described later.
  • the distribution definition information 301 includes a plurality of records in which a distribution type field 302, a parameter 1 field 303, and a parameter 2 field 304 are associated with each other.
  • the distribution type is information indicating the type of distribution indicating the probability density of deviation from the expected value of the undetermined parameter. Examples of the distribution type include a normal distribution, a gamma distribution, and an exponential distribution.
  • Parameter 1 and parameter 2 are information indicating parameters defined according to the type of distribution.
  • parameters 1 and 2 include parameters such as mean ⁇ and standard deviation ⁇ , respectively. Stored.
  • the type of distribution is a gamma distribution
  • the parameter 1 and the parameter 2 store the shape parameter k and the scale parameter ⁇ , respectively.
  • parameter 1 stores a parameter ⁇ .
  • FIG. 14 is a diagram showing an example of the indeterminate parameter definition information 311.
  • the unconfirmed parameter information 311 is information stored in the storage unit 2 in advance by the user of the repair plan evaluation apparatus, and is used for a repair plan evaluation process described later.
  • the unconfirmed parameter information includes a plurality of records in which an unconfirmed parameter ID field 312, a work ID field 313, a distribution type field 314, a parameter value 1 field 315, and a parameter value 2 field 316 are associated with each other. is doing.
  • the undetermined parameter ID is information for identifying the undetermined parameter, and is information common to the work type ID of the work schedule information 251.
  • the work ID is information for identifying each work, and is information common to the work ID of the work schedule information 251.
  • the type of distribution is information for specifying the type of distribution indicating the probability density of deviation from the expected value of the undetermined parameter, and is information common to the type of distribution in the distribution definition information 301.
  • Each of the parameter value 1 and the parameter value 2 is information indicating values to be substituted into parameters defined according to the type of distribution.
  • the calculation unit 1 includes an input reception unit 11, a repair plan generation unit 12, a work plan generation unit 13, a delay simulation execution unit 14, and a delay risk calculation unit 15.
  • the input receiving unit 11 is a functional unit that receives various instruction inputs from the user of the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100 and an external device connected via the communication unit 4. For example, when a vehicle failure occurs, the input reception unit 11 receives an input of failure information including information on the vehicle that has failed and the failure type from the vehicle information management device 150. Moreover, the input reception part 11 receives the input of the operation plan information containing the information regarding an operation schedule from the operation management system in a control center at a predetermined timing (for example, timing when a vehicle failure occurs).
  • the input receiving unit 11 receives information (for example, maintenance base segment information 221, maintenance base resource information 231, maintenance base resource information 231, maintenance base resource information 231 from the maintenance base information management apparatus 170 at a predetermined timing (eg, once every 30 minutes). And the like (for example, work schedule information 251, allocation information 261, delivery information 271) are received. Further, the input receiving unit 11 receives an instruction to execute a repair plan evaluation process from a user of the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100. The input receiving unit 11 passes the received instruction and the like to the corresponding functional unit.
  • information for example, maintenance base segment information 221, maintenance base resource information 231, maintenance base resource information 231, maintenance base resource information 231 from the maintenance base information management apparatus 170 at a predetermined timing (eg, once every 30 minutes). And the like (for example, work schedule information 251, allocation information 261, delivery information 271) are received. Further, the input receiving unit 11 receives an instruction to execute a repair plan evaluation process from a user of the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100. The input receiving unit 11 passes the received instruction and the like to
  • the repair plan generation unit 12 is a functional unit that generates repair plan proposal information. Specifically, the repair plan generation unit 12 uses the failure information acquired from the vehicle information management device 150 via the input reception unit 11 and the work time record information 201 and the like, and repair resources and resources necessary for the repair work. And faulty vehicle information including the repair time, the time during which the vehicle can be serviced, and the travel distance.
  • the repair plan generation unit 12 performs repair work using the failed vehicle information, the operation plan information, and information about resources (for example, the maintenance base segment information 221, the maintenance base resource information 231 and the maintenance base resource presence / absence information 241).
  • the maintenance bases that have the necessary resources the maintenance bases that are included in the planned service route of the failed vehicle and satisfy the conditions such as the mileage and time during which the operation service can be continued, the operation service stop time, and the maintenance base And the time of goods receipt.
  • generation part 12 acquires the leaving request
  • the repair plan information includes plan number, maintenance base, repair work, repair time, operation service available time and travel distance, operation service stop time, warehousing time, and delivery request time. And a plurality of records that are associated with each other.
  • the operation change information is information generated by the operation management system using faulty vehicle information, etc., for example, reflecting changes that occur in delays, suspensions, and vehicle assignments for predetermined operation schedules. It is the operation information.
  • the repair time and the warehousing time of the broken vehicle are estimated values obtained from past work results, and are uncertain parameters that are likely to fluctuate in actual work.
  • repair plan generation unit 12 does not necessarily have to be included in the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100.
  • the control center may be provided as an external system having the same function as the repair plan generation unit 12. In that case, the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100 acquires the repair plan proposal information generated by the system via the communication unit 4.
  • the work plan generation unit 13 is a functional unit that generates work plan proposal information. Specifically, the work plan generation unit 13 includes the repair plan proposal information generated by the repair plan generation unit 12, the operation change information acquired from the operation management system, the maintenance base resource storage unit 220, and the work plan storage unit 250. Using the predetermined information stored in the work plan request condition storage unit 280, work plan information is generated for each maintenance base included in the repair plan proposal information.
  • work plan information includes, for example, the work time of regular maintenance work at the maintenance site, the work time of regular maintenance work when the repair work is interrupted to the regular maintenance work, the repair time of the broken vehicle, the warehousing time and This includes the time required for leaving each vehicle.
  • the work time of the periodic maintenance work, the repair time of the broken vehicle, and the warehousing time are expected values obtained from past work results, and are uncertain parameters that are highly likely to fluctuate in actual work.
  • the work plan generation unit 13 regenerates work plan information that reflects the deviation from the expected value for uncertain parameters such as the work time of the regular maintenance work, the repair time of the broken vehicle, and the warehousing time.
  • the delay simulation execution unit 14 is a functional unit that executes a delay simulation process on the work plan information generated for each maintenance base. Specifically, the delay simulation execution unit 14 calculates a deviation value from the expected value of the uncertain parameter included in the work plan information using a predetermined probability density function. Further, the delay simulation execution unit 14 calculates the delivery delay time of each vehicle by using the work plan information regenerated by reflecting the deviation value from the expected value of each uncertain parameter. Details of the delay simulation process will be described later.
  • the delay risk calculation unit 15 is a functional unit that calculates the delay risk of the repair plan information. Specifically, the delay risk calculation unit 15 calculates the magnitude of a predetermined type of delay risk using the result of the delay simulation process.
  • the display unit 3 is a functional unit that displays predetermined screen information. Specifically, the display unit 3 displays an input instruction screen for designating a type of repair plan or delay risk.
  • the communication unit 4 is a functional unit that transmits and receives information to and from external devices (for example, the vehicle information management device 150 and the maintenance site information management device 170).
  • FIG. 15 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100.
  • the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100 includes a CPU 402 (Central Processing Unit), a RAM 403 (Random Access Memory), an arithmetic device 401 having a ROM 404 (Read Only Memory), an external storage device 405, a communication device 406, and an input device. 407, a display device 408, and a bus 409 for connecting the respective devices to each other.
  • the external storage device 405 is, for example, a nonvolatile storage device such as a hard disk device or a flash memory.
  • the communication device 406 is a communication module that communicates with external devices (for example, the vehicle information management device 150 and the maintenance site information management device 170) via a predetermined network T such as the Internet.
  • the input device 407 is a device that receives an instruction input from the user, such as a touch panel, a keyboard, and a mouse.
  • the display device 408 is a device that displays image information such as a liquid crystal display.
  • the calculating part 1 of the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100 is implement
  • a program is stored in the RAM 403 or the ROM 404, loaded onto the RAM 403 for execution, and executed by the CPU 402.
  • the storage unit described above is realized by the RAM 403, the ROM 404, and the external storage device 405.
  • the communication unit 4 described above is realized by the communication device 406.
  • the display unit 3 described above is realized by the display device 408.
  • FIG. 16 is a flowchart showing the flow of the repair plan evaluation process.
  • the repair plan evaluation process is started, for example, when an execution instruction for the repair plan evaluation process is acquired from the user via the input receiving unit 11.
  • the work plan generation unit 13 acquires the repair plan plan information generated by the repair plan generation unit 12, the operation change information generated by the operation management system, and the plan review time. (Step S001).
  • the plan review time is the current time when the repair plan evaluation process is executed, and the work plan generation unit 13 acquires the plan review time from a timer (not shown) included in the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100. To do.
  • the work plan generation unit 13 acquires predetermined information from the work time result storage unit 200, the work base resource storage unit, the work plan storage unit 250, and the work plan request condition storage unit 280 (step S002). ).
  • the work plan generation unit 13 includes work time record information 201, maintenance base segment information 221, maintenance base resource information 231, maintenance base resource presence / absence information 241, work schedule information 251, and allocation information 261.
  • the warehousing information 271 and the work plan request condition information 281 are respectively acquired from the corresponding storage units.
  • the work plan generation unit 13 generates work plan information for each maintenance base included in the repair plan proposal information using the information acquired in steps S001 and S002 (step S003). Specifically, the work plan generation unit 13 allocates necessary and allocatable resources by forward scheduling in order from the work having the earliest work start time using the acquired information, and each work obtained from the past work results. Work plan information is generated according to standard work hours. Therefore, the values of uncertain parameters such as the work time of the regular maintenance work of the maintenance base, the repair time of the broken vehicle, and the warehousing time included in the generated work plan information are expected values obtained from past work results.
  • the work plan information may be generated, for example, by backward scheduling in which work is assigned by calculating backwards from the time at which each vehicle is issued and the execution deadline of regular maintenance work.
  • the work plan information generated for each maintenance base included in the work plan information thus generated has, for example, the same fields as the work schedule information 251 shown in FIG. Shall.
  • the delay simulation execution unit 14 executes the following processing from step S004 to step S010 for each work plan information. That is, the delay simulation execution unit 14 executes a delay simulation for each work plan information of each maintenance base.
  • the delay simulation execution unit 14 acquires the distribution type and parameter value of the undefined parameter (step S005). Specifically, the delay simulation execution unit 14 includes an operation type ID indicating unconfirmed parameters (periodical maintenance operation time, repair time of defective vehicle, and warehousing time) from the operation plan information generated in step S003. To identify the record. Further, the delay simulation execution unit 14 specifies a record in which the same unconfirmed parameter ID is associated with the specified work type ID from the unconfirmed parameter definition information 311. Further, the delay simulation execution unit 14 acquires the work ID, the type of distribution, the parameter value 1 and the parameter value 2 from the identified record, and stores them in the input table shown in FIG. FIG.
  • the input table stores a work ID field 352 for specifying predetermined unconfirmed parameters such as work time and warehousing time, a distribution type field 353, and a parameter value 1 and a parameter value P1, respectively.
  • a field 354 and a P2 field 355 are associated with each other.
  • step S006 the delay simulation execution unit 14 adds 1 to the number of simulations n (step S006).
  • step S006 is first performed after the start of this flow, the delay simulation executing unit 14 adds 1 after resetting the number of executions n to 0.
  • the delay simulation execution unit 14 deviates from the expected value of the unconfirmed parameter, that is, the work time of the regular maintenance work calculated from the past work results, the repair time and the warehousing time of the failed vehicle, and the actual work.
  • the value of the deviation from the time and the warehousing time is calculated (step S007). Specifically, the delay simulation execution unit 14 calculates a deviation value from the expected value of each undetermined parameter using a probability density function according to the type of distribution stored in the input table 351.
  • the delay simulation execution unit 14 adds the P1 field 354 and By substituting the value of the P2 field 355, a random number is generated in accordance with the calculated probability density, and the random number is calculated as a deviation value from the expected value.
  • the delay simulation execution unit 14 adds the P1 field 354 and the P2 field 355 to Equation 2 below. By substituting a value, a random number is generated according to the calculated probability density, and the random number is calculated as a deviation value from the expected value.
  • the delay simulation execution unit 14 substitutes the value of the P1 field 354 into Equation 3 below when the type of uncertain parameter distribution specified by the work ID stored in the record of the input table 351 is an exponential distribution. Thus, a random number is generated according to the calculated probability density, and the random number is calculated as a deviation value from the expected value.
  • the parameter value of the indeterminate parameter can be associated with each work type in advance, instead of being associated with each work ID.
  • the type of distribution and the parameter value may be estimated (calculated) based on past work results accumulated in the work time result information 201.
  • the parameter value of the unconfirmed parameter may be set according to the time zone for performing the work or the skill of the assigned personnel. When parameter values are set in this way, it is assumed that predetermined information in which a working time zone, personnel skills, and parameter values are associated in advance is stored in the storage unit.
  • the delay simulation execution unit 14 may obtain the parameter value of the undetermined parameter from the past work performance at random, for example, without using the theoretical distribution represented by the above arithmetic expression. Further, the user may set in advance the maximum value and the minimum value of the deviation from the expected value of the undetermined parameter. Further, when setting the parameter value of the undetermined parameter, a value that is easy to understand intuitively, for example, in the case of a gamma distribution, a minimum working time value and a standard deviation are input. In step S007, the shape parameter k and You may make it convert into scale parameter (theta).
  • FIG. 18 is a flowchart showing a detailed flow of the delay simulation process.
  • the delay simulation execution unit 14 acquires the work plan information generated in step S003 and the deviation value from the expected value of the uncertain parameter calculated in step S007 (step S021).
  • step S022 determines whether or not there is an unconfirmed parameter to be reviewed, that is, whether there is an unconfirmed parameter in the work plan information that does not reflect the deviation value from the expected value (step S022). .
  • the process of step S022 is first performed after the start of the delay simulation process, the deviation from the expected value is reflected in the uncertain parameters such as the work time of the periodic maintenance work, the repair time of the failed vehicle, and the warehousing time. If not (Yes in step S022), the delay simulation executing unit 14 proceeds to step S023. If there is no unconfirmed parameter to be reviewed as a result of repeating the processing of step S022 to step S025 (No in step S022), the delay simulation executing unit 14 proceeds to step S026.
  • step S023 the delay simulation execution unit 14 calculates a review time for all unconfirmed parameters included in the work plan information (step S023). Specifically, when calculating the review time of the regular maintenance work and the repair work, the delay simulation execution unit 14 specifies a record including a work type ID for specifying these uncertain parameters from the work plan information. In addition, the delay simulation execution unit 14 determines the time from when the half of the work time specified between the work start time and the work end time of the specified record has elapsed, and the expected value calculated in step S007 for the work time. Of the times reflecting the deviation value, the earlier one is set as the review time. This is because the deviation from the expected value cannot usually be predicted before the work starts, and it is understood that a deviation occurs from the expected value after a certain amount of time has elapsed from the start of the work.
  • the delay simulation executing unit 14 when calculating the review time of the warehousing time of the broken vehicle, the delay simulation executing unit 14 identifies a record including a work type ID for identifying the warehousing time from the work plan information. Further, the delay simulation execution unit 14 includes the warehousing time specified by the work start time of the specified record and the work start time (the warehousing time) reflecting the deviation value from the expected value calculated in step S007.
  • the time that is a predetermined time before the earlier time (for example, 10 minutes before) is set as the review time. This is because it is usually not known that there is a deviation unless the warehousing time is immediately before (for example, 10 minutes before).
  • the delay simulation execution unit 14 reviews the value of the undetermined parameter with the earliest review time (step S024). Specifically, the delay simulation execution unit 14 specifies an unconfirmed parameter with the earliest review time calculated in step S023. Further, the delay simulation execution unit 14 specifies a record including the specified uncertain parameter from the work plan information. In addition, when the identified uncertain parameters are regular maintenance work and repair work, the delay simulation executing unit 14 sets a deviation value from the expected value calculated in step S007 at the work start time and work end time of the specified record. Reflect. When the specified uncertain parameter is the warehousing time, the delay simulation execution unit 14 reflects the deviation value from the expected value calculated in step S007 at the work start time of the specified record.
  • the delay simulation execution unit 14 reschedules the work after the review time (step S025). Specifically, since the delay simulation execution unit 14 reviews the expected value in step S024 and affects the work start time and work end time of each work scheduled thereafter, the delay simulation execution unit 14 also performs these works. Review the work start time and work end time sequentially. Note that the delay simulation execution unit 14 does not review the work started before the earliest review time specified in step S024, but only the work that starts after the review time. Moreover, the delay simulation execution part 14 will return a process to step S022 after complete
  • the delay simulation execution unit 14 repeatedly executes the processing from step S022 to step S025 until there are no more undetermined parameters to be reviewed.
  • the delay simulation execution unit 14 calculates the delivery delay time of each vehicle included in the work plan information after the review (step S026). For example, the delay simulation execution unit 14 identifies the latest time among the work end times of the work assigned to each vehicle from the work plan information, and sets these as the available time for each vehicle. Moreover, the delay simulation execution part 14 calculates the delivery delay time of each vehicle by acquiring the delivery request time of each vehicle from the delivery information 271 and comparing the available delivery time with the delivery request time. Further, when the process of step S026 ends, the delay simulation execution unit 14 ends the delay simulation process, and proceeds to step S009 of FIG.
  • step S009 the delay simulation execution unit 14 determines whether or not the number of executions (n + 1) of the delay simulation is equal to or less than the set number N (10000) of the simulation acquired in step S004. (Yes in step S009), the process returns to step S005. Further, the delay simulation execution unit 14 repeatedly executes the processing from step S005 to step S009 until the delay simulation execution number (n + 1) reaches the simulation setting number N (10000 times). Thereby, the delay time corresponding to the set number of delay simulations is calculated for each vehicle included in the work plan information for each maintenance base.
  • the delay risk calculation unit 15 calculates the delay risk using the delay simulation result for the set number of times (step S010). Specifically, the delay risk calculation unit 15 calculates the magnitude of a predetermined type of delay risk designated by the user via the input reception unit 11.
  • the delay risk calculation unit 15 calculates the delay occurrence probability according to the following Equation 4.
  • di represents the delivery delay time of the vehicle i
  • (N ⁇ di> 0) is the sum of the delivery delay times of all vehicles in the delay simulation, that is, in the work plan information. Indicates the number of times a delivery delay has occurred in any of the included vehicles.
  • Nall represents the set number N of delay simulations.
  • the delay occurrence probability may be replaced with N ( ⁇ di> D) as a probability that a delay of a certain time D or longer (for example, 15 minutes or longer) occurs.
  • the type of delay risk is not limited to the probability of delay occurrence.
  • the sum of the departure delay times of each vehicle is calculated, and the average value can be used as the expected risk. it can.
  • the total delay time of a specified predetermined quantile (for example, 90% point) can be set as a delay risk.
  • the delay risk calculation unit 15 acquires the penalty condition information 211 from the work time result storage unit 200 and specifies the penalty cost associated with the event including the delay time of the vehicle.
  • the delay risk calculation unit 15 calculates the penalty cost of each vehicle per delay simulation by multiplying the specified penalty cost by the delay time. Further, the delay risk calculation unit 15 calculates a penalty cost corresponding to the number of executions of the delay simulation by such a method, and sets the sum of these as the delay risk.
  • the delay risk calculation unit 15 can also use the average of the total penalty costs for the number of executions of each delay simulation as the expected risk as the delay risk.
  • the delay risk calculation unit 15 can set the penalty cost of a specified predetermined quantile (for example, 90% point) as the delay risk.
  • FIG. 19 is a diagram showing an example of an input screen 500 that accepts designation of a predetermined type of delay risk from the user.
  • the user can select one of the types of delay risk, and the delay risk calculation unit calculates the type of delay risk designated by the user.
  • the user can also input a desired value for a predetermined quantile.
  • the delay risk calculation unit 15 sorts and displays the records included in the repair plan list information 291 in descending order of delay risk. Specifically, the delay risk calculation unit 15 acquires the plan number, the maintenance base ID, and the operation service stop time of each repair plan included in the repair plan information. The delay risk calculation unit 15 specifies work plan information generated based on each plan, for example, using the maintenance base ID as a key. Further, the delay risk calculation unit 15 generates repair plan list information 291 in which the delay risk calculated for each work plan information is associated with each plan. Further, the delay risk calculation unit 15 sorts the records of the repair plan list information 291 according to the magnitude of the delay risk.
  • FIG. 20 is a diagram showing an example of a screen example 600 on which repair plan list information 291 sorted in ascending order of delay risk is displayed. A list of repair plans is displayed on the display device 408 in ascending order of delay risk. Thereby, the user can specify and select a repair plan with a low delay risk.
  • a repair plan with a lower risk can be identified.
  • the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100 re-generates a work plan that reflects the deviation value from the expected value of the uncertain parameter by repeatedly executing the delay simulation, and uses the simulation result of each time to delay. Calculate the risk.
  • the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100 can calculate the delay risk of each work plan at the maintenance base, and by extension, can evaluate the repair plan draft that is the basis of the work plan.
  • the delay risk caused by the maintenance base such as the work time of the regular maintenance work and the repair work is evaluated.
  • the present invention is not limited to such an embodiment, for example, a vehicle ( For example, it is possible to evaluate a repair plan including a delay risk caused by a substitute vehicle.
  • FIG. 21 is a diagram showing an example of repair plan information 700 including a delay prediction time that varies depending on whether or not a substitute vehicle is inserted, and a penalty cost calculated based on the delay prediction time.
  • the repair plan information 700 includes a repair plan No. 701, a maintenance base 702 for repairing, a maintenance base 703 for supplying a substitute vehicle, a suspension or delay type 704, and a predicted delay time 705.
  • the penalty cost 706 is associated with a plurality of records.
  • repair plan information 700 is included in the planned travel route of the failed vehicle, and the repair identified from the type of failure among the maintenance bases that satisfy the distance and time that the failed vehicle can operate.
  • the estimated delay time in each case is associated with a penalty cost that varies depending on the estimated delay time. Is generated.
  • the repair time and the warehousing time of the failed vehicle are uncertain parameters, but in the repair plan proposal information 700 of FIG. 21, the estimated delay time is an unconfirmed parameter.
  • the delay prediction time field 705 for example, the expected value obtained from the past substitute vehicle introduction record is stored.
  • the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100 calculates the delay risk of these repair plan proposals using the repair plan proposal information 700 as input information, as in the above-described embodiment.
  • the delay simulation execution unit 14 executes the repair plan evaluation process shown in FIG. 16 and the delay simulation process shown in FIG. 18 using such repair plan information 700.
  • description of processing similar to that in the above-described embodiment will be omitted, and only different processing will be described.
  • step S024 of the delay simulation process shown in FIG. 18 the delay simulation execution unit 14 calculates a predetermined time for arriving at the maintenance base where the substitute vehicle is inserted, for example, in calculating the review time of the delay prediction time that is an indeterminate parameter. Time before (for example, 10 minutes before) is calculated as the review time.
  • the delay risk calculation unit 15 calculates the sum of the departure delay times of each vehicle for each delay simulation process, and delays the average value as an expected value. Calculate the risk. Further, the delay risk calculation unit 15 specifies a record of the penalty condition information 211 including the calculated delay risk, that is, the average value of the delay time. In addition, the delay risk calculation unit 15 calculates a penalty cost including the delay risk by multiplying the average value of the delay time by the penalty cost of the identified record.
  • FIG. 22 is a diagram showing an example of a screen example 710 on which a repair plan draft associated with a penalty cost including a delay risk calculated by such processing is displayed.
  • the penalty cost of the record 711 is lower than the penalty cost of the record 712.
  • the penalty cost including the delay risk is lower in the record cost of the record 712 than the penalty cost of the record 711, and the repair plan having the penalty cost with the lower delay risk is specified. Can do.
  • the repair plan evaluation device 100 can also specify a repair plan with a lower risk.
  • the functional blocks of the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100 are classified according to the main processing contents in order to facilitate understanding of the functions of the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100 realized in the present embodiment.
  • the present invention is not limited by the way of classification and its name.
  • each structure of the repair plan evaluation apparatus 100 can also be classified into more components according to the processing content.
  • it can also classify
  • this invention is not limited to the above-mentioned Example, Various modifications are included.
  • the above-described embodiments have been described in detail for easy understanding of the present invention, and are not necessarily limited to those having all the configurations described.
  • a part of the configuration of one embodiment can be replaced with the configuration of another embodiment, and the configuration of another embodiment can be added to the configuration of one embodiment.
  • control lines and information lines indicate what is considered necessary for the description, and not all control lines and information lines on the product are necessarily shown. In practice, it can be considered that almost all the components are connected to each other.

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Abstract

La présente invention permet d'identifier une proposition de plan de réparation comportant moins de risque. Un dispositif d'évaluation de plan de réparation pour évaluer un risque de retard d'une proposition de plan de réparation est pourvu d'une unité de fonctionnement, l'unité de fonctionnement générant, à l'aide d'une proposition de plan de réparation comprenant une valeur attendue d'un paramètre indéfini, un plan de travail pour chaque concentrateur d'entretien pour effectuer une réparation, calculant une valeur d'écart à partir de la valeur attendue du paramètre indéfini, générant un plan de travail reflétant la valeur d'écart dans la valeur attendue, exécutant une pluralité de fois un processus de simulation pour déterminer un temps de retard d'un véhicule inclus dans le plan de travail et calculant, à l'aide du résultat du processus de simulation, un risque de retard de la proposition de plan de réparation utilisée pour générer le plan de travail.
PCT/JP2015/058711 2014-05-23 2015-03-23 Dispositif d'évaluation de plan de réparation, procédé d'évaluation de plan de réparation et programme WO2015178092A1 (fr)

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WO2023279706A1 (fr) * 2022-01-20 2023-01-12 江苏徐工工程机械研究院有限公司 Procédé et appareil d'évaluation de maintenabilité de machine d'ingénierie, appareil informatique et support de stockage
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JP2009107443A (ja) * 2007-10-29 2009-05-21 Toshiba Corp 車両運用計画作成装置および方法
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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US11367031B2 (en) * 2020-02-21 2022-06-21 Hitachi, Ltd. Delivery plan creating device and delivery plan creating method
WO2023279706A1 (fr) * 2022-01-20 2023-01-12 江苏徐工工程机械研究院有限公司 Procédé et appareil d'évaluation de maintenabilité de machine d'ingénierie, appareil informatique et support de stockage
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