US20100063739A1 - Method for predicting where the next major earthquake will take place within an area - Google Patents

Method for predicting where the next major earthquake will take place within an area Download PDF

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Publication number
US20100063739A1
US20100063739A1 US12/312,465 US31246507A US2010063739A1 US 20100063739 A1 US20100063739 A1 US 20100063739A1 US 31246507 A US31246507 A US 31246507A US 2010063739 A1 US2010063739 A1 US 2010063739A1
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stress
ref
principal
slip
principal stresses
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US12/312,465
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Ragnar Slunga
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G01MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01VGEOPHYSICS; GRAVITATIONAL MEASUREMENTS; DETECTING MASSES OR OBJECTS; TAGS
    • G01V1/00Seismology; Seismic or acoustic prospecting or detecting
    • G01V1/01Measuring or predicting earthquakes
    • GPHYSICS
    • G01MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01VGEOPHYSICS; GRAVITATIONAL MEASUREMENTS; DETECTING MASSES OR OBJECTS; TAGS
    • G01V1/00Seismology; Seismic or acoustic prospecting or detecting
    • G01V1/28Processing seismic data, e.g. for interpretation or for event detection

Definitions

  • the present invention relates to a method of determining the stress tensor that has caused an earthquake, also for microearthquakes which are many more than the large earthquakes.
  • the entire stress tensor field can be determined, which may be used, inter alia, to predict where the next major earthquake will occur.
  • the stress tensor field in an elastic body is directly associated with the deformations and besides gives the stability on all existing fault planes.
  • a crucial part in geophysics is played by shear slips along fault planes, for instance microearthquakes (magnitudes between normally ⁇ 2 and 5).
  • Such a shear slip observation is described geometrically by three parameters, the normal direction of the fault plane (2 angles) plus the shear slip direction along the plane (1 angle). It is suitable to let each shear slip observation be described by two unit vectors, the normal N of the plane and the shear slip vector D. These vectors are perpendicular to each other and are thus given by three parameters.
  • FPS fault plane solution
  • ⁇ 1 , ⁇ 2 and ⁇ 3 are the still unknown principal stresses, that is only 4 of 6 parameters in the stress tensor are determined.
  • ⁇ 1 , ⁇ 2 and ⁇ 3 are the still unknown principal stresses, that is only 4 of 6 parameters in the stress tensor are determined.
  • the present invention provides a new solution to the problem of determining the stress tensor that has caused a shear slip along a fault plane (an earthquake or a microearthquake) when two unit vectors are known and you know that one is the normal N of the fault plane and the other the shear slip vector D, but it is not necessarily known which vector is N and which is D.
  • the vectors are perpendicular to each other.
  • the method provides the entire stress tensor (six parameters, that is three principal stress directions and their respective principal stress) for each individual shear slip (earthquake). If only the FPS is available for an earthquake, which as stated above means that there are two possible fault planes with an associated shear slip direction, the method also indicates which of the two planes is the shear slip plane. When a large number of microearthquakes are available and their FPS has been determined, which is a routine analysis according to prior art technique, the entire stress tensor field can be determined.
  • the first step according to the invention is assuming that the relationship between the stress tensor and the shear slip (N, D) is such that Mohr-Coulomb slip criterion is just satisfied. All other combinations of planes and shear slip directions are assumed to be stable according to this slip criterion.
  • the Mohr-Coulomb slip criterion directly gives the principal stress directions of the stress tensor as functions of the friction coefficient f of the fault plane, which is assumed to be known.
  • the slip criterion also gives a connection between two of the principal stresses. Then there remains determining two degrees of freedom for the stress tensor.
  • the invention further assumes that the normal stress ⁇ v in a known direction S v is known, which provides a further limiting criterion. It is usually the vertical normal stress that can most easily be estimated.
  • the remaining degree of freedom is eliminated by minimising a function of the elastic deformation energy per unit of volume relative to a reference stress state which in the main case is isotropic and has the pressure ⁇ v .
  • the 6 criteria (3 principal stress directions plus 1 criterion for the magnitude of the principal stresses from the Mohr-Coulomb slip criterion, 1 criterion from the assumption about ⁇ v and 1 criterion from the minimising of energy) provide the 6 parameters in the stress tensor.
  • N ref a suitable reference mechanism
  • D ref a weighted sum of the deformation energies relative to the two references, the isotropic stress tensor and the non-isotropic reference tensor.
  • E elasticity module of the rock (normally about 90 GPa)
  • Poisson ratio of the rock (normally about 0.25)
  • f friction coefficient of faults (normally about 0.6)
  • t 0 fault strength in shear slip (normally 1-2 MPa)
  • N and D are defined so that the vector N+D lies in the direction of the T vector and the vector N ⁇ D lies in the direction of the P vector, where the P and T vectors are pressure and tension directions of the two force dipoles which are elastically equivalent to the shear slip in the fault plane.
  • P and T axes are known to a person skilled in the art. For the less initiated, reference is made to Aki and Richards, 1980, Quantitative Seismology, Theory and Methods, volume I, W H Freeman and Company, USA, hereby incorporated by reference, or any basic seismology textbook.
  • the Mohr-Coulomb slip criterion MCS can be written as follows (here for fault plane)
  • is the shear slip stress
  • ⁇ n is the normal stress of the fault plane
  • p is the water pressure
  • Equation (1) is a limiting criterion for the magnitude of the principal stresses.
  • the method implies that the normal stress in one direction, S v , can be considered to be known.
  • the stress is here designated ⁇ v .
  • the most common case is that S v is vertical and ⁇ v can then normally be assumed to be
  • ⁇ b is the average density of the rock between the surface and the depth z and g is the gravitational acceleration.
  • ⁇ v ⁇ 1 2 ⁇ 1 + ⁇ 2 2 ⁇ 2 + ⁇ 3 2 ⁇ 3 .
  • ⁇ 1 ⁇ v - ⁇ 3 2 ⁇ ⁇ 3 ⁇ 1 2 .
  • the method requires that the water pressure is related to the known parameters stated above.
  • the pressure can either be known by direct measurements or be assumed to be hydrostatic if the fault system has a conductive connection to the soil surface, or, for fault systems which do not have a conductive connection to the soil surface, it can be related to the known stress u v according to the following expression:
  • ⁇ b is the density of the rock
  • ⁇ w the density of the water
  • h a length parameter as stated below.
  • the still unknown scalar for instance one of the principal stresses or R, is deter-mined by minimising the elastic deformation energy G iso per unit of volume relative to a stress state which in the main case is isotropic and has the pressure ⁇ v .
  • G iso There are various known expressions of G iso . As a function of the principal stresses, G iso can be written as
  • G iso [( ⁇ 1 ⁇ v ) 2 +( ⁇ 2 ⁇ v ) 2 +( ⁇ 3 ⁇ v ) 2 ⁇ 2 ⁇ (( ⁇ 1 ⁇ v )( ⁇ 2 ⁇ v )+( ⁇ 1 ⁇ v )( ⁇ 3 ⁇ v )+( ⁇ 2 ⁇ v )( ⁇ 3 ⁇ v ))]/2
  • G iso ( ⁇ 1 + ⁇ 2 + ⁇ 3 - 3 ⁇ ⁇ v ) 2 3 ⁇ K ++ ⁇ [ ( ⁇ 1 - ⁇ v ) 2 + ( ⁇ 1 - ⁇ v ) 2 + ( ⁇ 1 - ⁇ v ) 2 - ( ⁇ 1 - ⁇ v ) ⁇ ( ⁇ 2 - ⁇ v ) - ( ⁇ 1 - ⁇ v ) ⁇ ( ⁇ 3 - ⁇ v ) - ( ⁇ 2 - ⁇ v ) ⁇ ( ⁇ 3 - ⁇ v ) ] 6 ⁇ ⁇
  • the principal stresses can be calculated as described above and the value of the G iso is obtained.
  • the scalar value minimising G iso is calculated by systematic search or by an analytic solution, for example by the derivative of G iso with respect to the scalar being set to be zero. If the scalar value minimising G iso results in ⁇ 2 being greater than ⁇ i , this means that the designations 1 and 2 of the principal stresses and the principal stress directions in the resulting tensor must be shifted. Before shifting, however, ⁇ 1 , ⁇ 2 and ⁇ 3 are to be calculated with the scalar value minimising G iso . This gives the complete stress tensor of a given fault plane and the associated shear slip direction.
  • G ref [ ( ⁇ 11 ⁇ ( s ) - ⁇ 1 ref ) 2 + ( ⁇ 22 ⁇ ( s ) - ⁇ 2 ref ) 2 + ( ⁇ 33 ⁇ ( s ) - ⁇ 3 ref ) 2 - 2 ⁇ ⁇ ⁇ ( ( ⁇ 11 ⁇ ( s ) - ⁇ 1 ref ) ⁇ ( ⁇ 22 ⁇ ( s ) - ⁇ 2 ref ) + ( ⁇ 11 ⁇ ( s ) - ⁇ 1 ref ) ( ⁇ 33 ⁇ ( s ) - ⁇ 3 ref ) + ( ⁇ 22 ⁇ ( s ) - ⁇ 2 ref ) ⁇ ( ⁇ 33 ⁇ ( s ) - ⁇ 3 ref ) ) + 2 ⁇ ( 1 + ⁇ ) ⁇ ( ( ⁇ 12 ⁇ ( s ) ) 2 + ( ⁇ 13 ⁇ ( s ) ) 2 + ( ⁇ 23 ⁇ ( s ) )
  • the remaining-sixth-degree of freedom is eliminated by determining the value of the scalar parameter which minimises the function of said combination. Finally, the determined value of the scalar parameter is inserted in the expressions of the principal stresses, which gives the principal stresses, which together with the principal stress directions constitute the six elements of the stress tensor.

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  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Life Sciences & Earth Sciences (AREA)
  • Remote Sensing (AREA)
  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Environmental & Geological Engineering (AREA)
  • Geology (AREA)
  • Acoustics & Sound (AREA)
  • General Life Sciences & Earth Sciences (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Geophysics (AREA)
  • Geophysics And Detection Of Objects (AREA)
  • Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • Emergency Management (AREA)
US12/312,465 2006-11-14 2007-10-31 Method for predicting where the next major earthquake will take place within an area Abandoned US20100063739A1 (en)

Applications Claiming Priority (3)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
SE0602417A SE530569C2 (sv) 2006-11-14 2006-11-14 Sätt att bestämma den spänningstensor som har utlöst ett jordskalv
SE0602417-8 2006-11-14
PCT/SE2007/000964 WO2008060213A1 (en) 2006-11-14 2007-10-31 Method for predicting where the next major earthquake will take place within an area

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US (1) US20100063739A1 (no)
EP (1) EP2082264A1 (no)
JP (1) JP2010509607A (no)
AU (1) AU2007320143B2 (no)
CA (1) CA2669255A1 (no)
NO (1) NO20092294L (no)
SE (1) SE530569C2 (no)
WO (1) WO2008060213A1 (no)
ZA (1) ZA200903571B (no)

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN115903035A (zh) * 2022-11-17 2023-04-04 中国地震局地震预测研究所 基于地质参数和库仑应力的地震触发概率确定方法及系统

Families Citing this family (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
WO2012009827A1 (zh) * 2010-07-21 2012-01-26 中国矿业大学(北京) 地震灾害超前预警预报方法及系
CN110866337B (zh) * 2019-11-12 2021-06-01 中南大学 一种基于差应力的采动断层活化倾向性判别方法
CN110866300B (zh) * 2019-11-15 2022-11-25 上海环联生态科技有限公司 大型建筑的裂缝预测方法

Citations (10)

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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US4297690A (en) * 1978-08-14 1981-10-27 Baker Gerald E Earthquake alarm system
US4884030A (en) * 1987-04-09 1989-11-28 Compagnie Generale De Geophysique Method and system for acquisition and separation of the effects of electromagnetic fields to predict earthquakes
US5060204A (en) * 1990-06-27 1991-10-22 Chevron Research And Technology Company Method of layer stripping to determine fault plane stress build-up
US5241175A (en) * 1991-09-27 1993-08-31 Riken Denshi Co., Ltd. Method and equipment for prediction of volcanic eruption and earthquake
US5737219A (en) * 1992-10-15 1998-04-07 All-Russian Research Institute For Hydrogeology And Engineering Geology Method of monitoring deformation of geological structures and predicting geodynamic events
US6389361B1 (en) * 1998-10-16 2002-05-14 Strm, Llc Method for 4D permeability analysis of geologic fluid reservoirs
US20030125878A1 (en) * 2001-12-17 2003-07-03 Schlumberger Technology Corporation System and method for estimating subsurface principal stresses from seismic reflection data
US20070127313A1 (en) * 2005-12-05 2007-06-07 Paul Segall Apparatus and method for hydraulic fracture imaging by joint inversion of deformation and seismicity
US20070233390A1 (en) * 2006-02-24 2007-10-04 Freund Friedemann T Current generation and earthquake prediction
US20080165619A1 (en) * 2007-01-05 2008-07-10 Ran Bachrach Estimation of Stress and Elastic Parameters

Patent Citations (10)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US4297690A (en) * 1978-08-14 1981-10-27 Baker Gerald E Earthquake alarm system
US4884030A (en) * 1987-04-09 1989-11-28 Compagnie Generale De Geophysique Method and system for acquisition and separation of the effects of electromagnetic fields to predict earthquakes
US5060204A (en) * 1990-06-27 1991-10-22 Chevron Research And Technology Company Method of layer stripping to determine fault plane stress build-up
US5241175A (en) * 1991-09-27 1993-08-31 Riken Denshi Co., Ltd. Method and equipment for prediction of volcanic eruption and earthquake
US5737219A (en) * 1992-10-15 1998-04-07 All-Russian Research Institute For Hydrogeology And Engineering Geology Method of monitoring deformation of geological structures and predicting geodynamic events
US6389361B1 (en) * 1998-10-16 2002-05-14 Strm, Llc Method for 4D permeability analysis of geologic fluid reservoirs
US20030125878A1 (en) * 2001-12-17 2003-07-03 Schlumberger Technology Corporation System and method for estimating subsurface principal stresses from seismic reflection data
US20070127313A1 (en) * 2005-12-05 2007-06-07 Paul Segall Apparatus and method for hydraulic fracture imaging by joint inversion of deformation and seismicity
US20070233390A1 (en) * 2006-02-24 2007-10-04 Freund Friedemann T Current generation and earthquake prediction
US20080165619A1 (en) * 2007-01-05 2008-07-10 Ran Bachrach Estimation of Stress and Elastic Parameters

Non-Patent Citations (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Title
USGS Science for a changing world, Earthquake Hazards Program, 27 October 2009, "FAQs - Earthquake Myths", https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/faq/?categoryID=6&faqID=13, page 1 *

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN115903035A (zh) * 2022-11-17 2023-04-04 中国地震局地震预测研究所 基于地质参数和库仑应力的地震触发概率确定方法及系统

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NO20092294L (no) 2009-08-13
SE0602417L (sv) 2008-05-15
EP2082264A1 (en) 2009-07-29
CA2669255A1 (en) 2008-05-22
ZA200903571B (en) 2010-08-25
JP2010509607A (ja) 2010-03-25
WO2008060213A1 (en) 2008-05-22
SE530569C2 (sv) 2008-07-08
AU2007320143A1 (en) 2008-05-22
AU2007320143B2 (en) 2012-12-13
WO2008060213A9 (en) 2008-08-28

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