TWI752273B - Support apparatus for creating updated plan, and support method for creating updated plan - Google Patents

Abstract

Provided are a support apparatus for creating updated plan, support system for creating updated plan, and support method for creating updated plan, in which a redundant configuration of equipment is taken into consideration and the influence degree of equipment failure on a power system can be appropriately evaluated.

A support apparatus for creating updated plan according to the present invention includes: a failure information storage unit that stores information indicating the failure probability of equipment; an operation status acquisition unit that acquires information indicating the operation status of the equipment; and a redundancy information storage unit that stores information indicating a redundant configuration of the equipment. A failure risk calculation unit calculates the failure occurrence probability from the information indicating the failure probability of the equipment, and calculates a failure risk indicating the magnitude of the influence degree of the equipment failure on a power system based on the information indicating the operation status of the equipment and the information indicating the redundant configuration of the equipment. An update plan creation unit creates an update plan of the equipment based on the calculated failure risk.

Description

Update plan creation support device and update plan creation support method

The present invention relates to an update plan preparation support device, an update plan preparation support system, and an update plan preparation support method for equipment configured in a redundant configuration constituting an electric power system.

In an electric power system of a power transmission system formed by a substation or a power generation system formed by a power plant, generally, a plan is prepared and implemented in order to perform maintenance and/or renewal of equipment. In this update plan, there are those who regularly update the equipment, or those who monitor the state of the equipment and update when it is judged that it is necessary. In recent years, a method has been proposed, which evaluates the risk of equipment failure, and makes an update plan according to the size of the risk, so as to achieve the purpose of further reliable assurance and cost reduction.

Patent Document 1 discloses a system in which the update period is determined based on the risk of power supply failure due to failure of the power distribution facility and the maintenance cost of the power distribution facility. In addition, Patent Document 2 discloses a system for preparing a recommendation proposal for a maintenance plan based on the probability of failure of equipment, life cycle cost, and the like.

(prior art literature) (patent literature)

Japanese Patent Application No. 2010-27044

Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2009-3517

However, in the means of calculating the risk of failure for each facility, the redundant configuration of the facility is not considered, and there is a problem in that the influence of the facility failure on the power system cannot be appropriately evaluated to prepare an update plan.

The present invention has been developed to solve the above-mentioned problems, and an object of the present invention is to provide an update plan preparation support device that can appropriately evaluate the influence of equipment failure on the power system in consideration of the redundant configuration of equipment. Another object is to provide an update plan creation support system. Furthermore, the purpose is to provide a method for supporting the creation of an update plan.

The update plan preparation support device of the present invention includes: a failure information storage unit that stores information on the occurrence difficulty of failures of equipment configured in a redundant configuration constituting a power system; Operation information acquisition department; redundant structure of memory display equipment The redundant information memory of the completed information; calculates the probability of failure according to the information indicating the difficulty of occurrence of the failure, and calculates the probability of the display device according to the probability of failure, the information indicating the operation status and the information indicating the redundant structure. A failure risk calculation unit for a failure risk of the degree of influence of the failure on the power system, and an update plan creation unit for creating an update plan for equipment based on the failure risk.

Furthermore, the update plan preparation support system of the present invention includes: an update plan preparation support device for generating an update plan for equipment that constitutes a redundant configuration of a power system; The drawing is a monitoring device that supports device communication and collects information showing the operation status.

Furthermore, the update plan preparation support method of the present invention includes: a fault information memory step of memorizing information showing the difficulty of failure of equipment configured as a redundant configuration constituting the power system; The operation information acquisition step of the information; the redundant information memory step of memorizing the information of the redundant structure of the display device; the failure probability is calculated according to the information showing the difficulty of the failure, and the information showing the operation status and A failure risk calculation step of displaying the information of the redundant configuration to calculate a failure risk indicating the degree of influence of a failure of a device on the power system; and an update plan creation step of creating a device update plan based on the failure risk.

The update plan creation support device, the update plan creation support system, and the update plan creation support method according to the present invention can be based on and Since the information related to the redundant configuration of the equipment is used to calculate the failure risk, it is possible to create an update plan that appropriately evaluates the influence of the equipment failure on the power system.

10a, 10b‧‧‧Power System

20‧‧‧Control Command

100‧‧‧Update project creation support device

101‧‧‧Fault information memory department

102‧‧‧Redundant information memory

103‧‧‧Operation Information Acquisition Department

104‧‧‧Failure Risk Calculation Department

105‧‧‧Renewal Plan Completion Department

106‧‧‧Input

107‧‧‧Output

108‧‧‧Deterioration Information Acquisition Department

109‧‧‧Using the Program Memory Department

110‧‧‧Operation Plan Change Proposal Department

111‧‧‧Expense Information Memory Department

112‧‧‧Equipment Division Information Memory Department

113‧‧‧Abnormal Information Acquisition Department

200‧‧‧Monitoring device

201‧‧‧Job Information Collection Department

202‧‧‧Deterioration Information Collection Department

203‧‧‧Renewal Program Receiving Department

204‧‧‧Anomaly Detection Department

1000‧‧‧Update project creation support system

A‧‧‧Substation

A1, A2, A3, An, B1, B2, Bn, C1, C2, D1, D2, E1, E2, F1, F2‧‧‧Transformer

B, C, D, E, F‧‧‧ substations

NW‧‧‧WAN

FIG. 1 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support apparatus according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention.

Fig. 2 is a flowchart of the update plan creation support apparatus according to the first embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the operation of the update plan creation support device according to the first embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 4 is a relational diagram showing an example of the operation of the update plan creation support apparatus according to the first embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the operation of the update plan creation support apparatus according to the first embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 6 is a relational diagram showing an example of the operation of the update plan creation support apparatus according to the first embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the operation of the update plan creation support apparatus according to the first embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 8 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support apparatus according to Embodiment 2 of the present invention.

FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the operation of the update plan creation support apparatus according to the second embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 10 shows the update plan creation support according to the third embodiment of the present invention A schematic configuration diagram of the device.

Fig. 11 is a flowchart of the update plan creation support apparatus according to the third embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 12 is a relational diagram showing an example of the operation of the update plan creation support device according to the third embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 13 is a relational diagram showing an example of the operation of the update plan creation support device according to the third embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 14 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support apparatus according to Embodiment 4 of the present invention.

Fig. 15 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support apparatus according to Embodiment 5 of the present invention.

Fig. 16 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support apparatus according to Embodiment 6 of the present invention.

Fig. 17 is a flowchart of the update plan creation support apparatus according to the sixth embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 18 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support system according to Embodiment 7 of the present invention.

Fig. 19 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support system according to Embodiment 7 of the present invention.

Fig. 20 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support system according to Embodiment 7 of the present invention.

Fig. 21 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support system according to Embodiment 7 of the present invention.

Fig. 22 shows the support for the creation of an update plan according to the eighth embodiment of the present invention Schematic diagram of the system.

Fig. 23 is a flowchart of the update plan creation support system according to the eighth embodiment of the present invention.

(Best form of implementation of the invention)

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

(Embodiment 1)

FIG. 1 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support apparatus for implementing Embodiment 1 of the present invention. The update plan creation support device 100 includes a failure information storage unit 101, a redundancy information storage unit 102, an operation information acquisition unit 103, a failure risk calculation unit 104, an update plan creation unit 105, an input unit 106, and an output unit 107.

The so-called failure in this case refers to: in addition to the narrow failure of the original function of the equipment, it also includes the decline of the ability of the equipment to continue in a state that is lower than the original function, or although the function of the equipment has not stopped, but some abnormality is caused by Detected failures in poor condition. In addition, the so-called renewal refers to the renewal of the maintenance and the maintenance of the repair, inspection, etc. of the equipment, in addition to the renewal in the narrow sense of replacing the degraded equipment.

The update planning support device 100 of the present invention is aimed at a system that is designed to be a redundant power system designed to avoid loss of function even if some equipment fails. In the following, parallel redundancy refers to making a plurality of A redundant configuration in which functional devices are operated in parallel to distribute the load, and a multiple redundancy refers to a redundant configuration in which a replacement device is prepared and an active device and a standby device are switched when a failure of the device occurs. Multiple redundancy also includes, for example, a configuration in which a detour path is switched when a part of equipment in the power transmission system fails.

The failure information memory unit 101 stores, for example, information related to the configuration of the equipment as information showing the difficulty of occurrence of a failure of the equipment. Information related to equipment configuration is the number of years, type, maintenance history, etc. since the equipment was installed. Based on such information, the difficulty of occurrence of failures is displayed in terms of the number of years that have elapsed since the update plan was created. In addition to the above, the occurrence difficulty of failure can also be represented by the level value of plural stages classification, the failure stop time in years, the number of years of remaining life, and the like.

The redundant information storage unit 102 stores, for example, the connection relationship of the equipment and the operation mode of the equipment, as the information of the redundant configuration of the display equipment.

The connection relationship of equipment, for example, in parallel redundancy, is the connection relationship of equipment operating in parallel. Furthermore, in the multiple redundancy, it is a connection relationship between an active device and a standby device, and a connection relationship of a detourable path.

The operation mode of the equipment is, for example, the following information: In parallel redundancy, for example, information on the output contribution rate of each equipment to the total output of the equipment operating in parallel, failure of each equipment to the total output of the equipment operating in parallel The output obstacle rate information at the time. Furthermore, in the multiple redundancy, whether the device belongs to the active device or the standby device is the information. News.

The operation information acquisition unit 103 acquires information showing the operation status of the equipment. Information showing the operating status of the equipment, such as a load factor calculated from the output of the equipment, the rated output, or the ratio of the average output to the rated output of the equipment in a predetermined period.

The failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates the failure probability based on the information on the occurrence difficulty of the display device stored in the failure information storage unit 101 , and stores it in the redundant information storage unit 102 based on the calculated failure probability. The information on the redundant configuration of the display device and the information on the operating state of the display device acquired by the operation information acquisition unit 103 are used to calculate the failure risk of the degree of influence of the failure of the display device on the power system. The failure risk is represented, for example, as a function of the number of years elapsed since the update plan was created.

The update plan creation unit 105 determines the update time of the equipment based on the failure risk calculated by the failure risk calculation unit 104 and creates an update plan. Here, the update period of the device may also be determined according to the user's consideration priority or restrictive conditions. The user is the owner or manager of the display device.

The input unit 106 receives input of the following information: information stored in the failure information storage unit 101 and the redundant information storage unit 102, and information related to priorities or constraints considered by the user when the update plan was created . The output unit 107 outputs the failure risk calculated by the failure risk calculation unit 104 , the update plan created by the update plan creation unit 105 , and the like. When the necessary information has been pre-memorized in the update plan to support In the case of the device 100, the input of the input unit 106 can be omitted.

The update plan creation support device 100 is, for example, constituted by a server or a PC (Personal Computer), and the server or PC is provided with a CPU (Central Processing Unit, central processing unit), a RAM (Random Access Memory, random access memory) Access memory), ROM (Read Only Memory, read only memory) and so on. The failure information storage unit 101 and the redundant information storage unit 102 are realized by, for example, a storage medium such as ROM, and the functions of the operation information acquisition unit 103 , the failure risk calculation unit 104 , and the update plan creation unit 105 are implemented, for example, by using a CPU and RAM to execute programs. The input unit 106 and the output unit 107 are configured using, for example, a mouse, a keyboard, a display device, or the like. Furthermore, the update plan creation support apparatus 100 may be provided with a communication interface capable of communicating with a network, and may acquire information stored in each memory unit and a program for executing the functions of each unit via the network.

Hereinafter, an example of the processing procedure of the update plan creation support apparatus 100 will be described. FIG. 2 is an example of a flowchart for implementing the update plan creation support apparatus according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention. Hereinafter, the equipment to which the update plan creation support apparatus 100 is to be applied is a transformer, and the power system constituted by the transformer will be described as a substation. FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a substation having a transformer. As shown in FIG. 3, the substation has transformers A1 to A3, and the transformers A1 and A2 are set to operate in parallel for parallel redundancy, and the transformer A1 is set to have a transformer as an alternative standby device Multiple redundancy for A3.

The failure risk calculation unit 104 is based on, for example, memory The information on the occurrence difficulty of the failure in the failure information memory unit 101 and the transformer configuration is used to calculate the probability of failure occurrence for the number of years since the update plan was created (step S101 ). The failure occurrence probability F(t) for the number of years since the update plan was created is obtained by, for example, the Weibull distribution shown in the following formula (1).

Among them, m is the Weibull coefficient, η is the scale parameter, γ is the location parameter, and t is the number of years since the update plan was made.

The position parameter γ is, for example, the number of years that have elapsed since the installation of the transformer when the update plan was created. The number of years that have elapsed since the installation of the transformers in the time when the renewal plan was made is, for example, 10 years for the transformers A1 and A2, and 30 years for the transformer A3. FIG. 4 is a relational diagram showing the result of obtaining the failure probability of the transformers A1 to A3 by the formula (1). As shown in Fig. 4, the failure occurrence probability is calculated from the elapsed years since the installation in the update plan creation time, and the largest failure occurrence of the transformer A3 with the longest elapsed years since the installation is calculated in each year. chance.

The failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates the fault pair indicating the transformer based on the information indicating the operation status of the transformer obtained by the operation information obtaining unit 103 and the information indicating the redundant configuration of the transformer stored in the redundant information storage unit 102. The failure risk of the influence degree caused by the substation (step S102).

In the operation information acquisition unit 103, the load factor and the rated output are acquired as information showing the operation status of the transformer. FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the information showing the operation status acquired by the operation information acquisition unit of the update plan creation support device for implementing the first embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 5, it is assumed that the rated outputs of transformers A1 to A3 are, for example, 500 MW, the load factors of transformers A1 and A2 are 55%, and the load factor of transformer A3 is 0%.

The failure risk calculation unit 104 uses the load factor of the transformer acquired by the operation information acquisition unit 103 and the information related to the connection relationship stored in the redundant information storage unit 102 to calculate the failure influence degree due to the connection relationship coefficient. At this time, for the transformer, the failure influence degree coefficient C1n is obtained, for example, by the following formula (2).

Among them, n is the serial number of the transformer, x is the load factor of the transformer, and c, d, f, and g are the coefficients.

The coefficients of c, d, f, and g are acquired from the redundant information storage unit 102 as information related to the connection relationship of the transformers. c For example, the value of the transformer A2 having no substitute equipment is set to be larger than the value of the transformer A1 connected to the transformer A3 of the substitute equipment.

In this way, the fault influence coefficient is based on the information related to the connection relationship of the transformer to evaluate the influence of the fault of the transformer on the substation.

The failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates the function due to the operation mode based on the rated output and load factor acquired by the operation information acquisition unit 103 and the information related to the operation mode of the transformer stored in the redundant information storage unit 102 Obstacle risk factor. The functional disability risk coefficient C2n is obtained, for example, by the following equations (3) and (4).

Among them, n is the serial number of the transformer, r is the rated output of the transformer, x is the load factor of the transformer, and h, j, and k are the coefficients. The coefficients of h, j, and k are acquired from the redundant information storage unit 102 as information related to the operation form in the redundant configuration of the transformer.

h is, for example, a parameter that depends on the output contribution rate of each transformer to the total output of the transformers operating in parallel. j is, for example, a parameter of the output failure rate at the time of failure of each transformer with respect to the total output of the transformers operating in parallel. k is a parameter that depends on whether the transformer set in multiple redundancy is an active device or a standby device. k For example, the values of the transformers A1 and A2 of the active equipment are set to be larger than those of the transformer A3 of the standby equipment.

Thus, the risk factor for dysfunction is based on the transformer It uses the information related to the form to evaluate the influence of the transformer failure caused by the substation.

The failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates the display transformer based on the probability of occurrence of failure for the number of years since the update plan was created, the failure influence coefficient due to the connection relationship, and the failure risk coefficient due to the operation form. The failure risk of the impact of the failure on the substation. For the failure risk R(t) of the number of years since the update plan was created, for example, the product of the failure probability F(t), the failure influence coefficient C1n, and the failure risk coefficient C2n is calculated by the following formula (5). in the form of.

R ( t )= C _{1 n} × C _{2 n} × F ( t ) ....(5)

Here, n is the transformer number, and t is the number of years since the update plan was created.

In this way, the failure risk for the number of years elapsed from the time when the update plan was created is calculated based on the information about the redundancy configuration. FIG. 6 is a graph showing the result of calculating the failure risk for the transformers A1 to A3 over the years according to the above formula (5). Here, the upper limit value of the failure risk determined to be necessary to update is set to Rmax.

As shown in FIG. 6 , it is calculated that the failure risk reaches the upper limit value Rmax as soon as possible for the transformer A2 having no operating equipment as a substitute. Then, it is calculated that the transformer A3, which is a standby device, reaches the upper limit value Rmax at the latest. In this way, the failure risk is calculated from the information related to the redundancy configuration, whereby it is possible to appropriately evaluate the failure of the transformer caused by the substation Impact.

The update plan creation unit 105 creates an update plan that satisfies the priority or restriction conditions considered by the user based on the failure risk obtained by the failure risk calculation unit 104 (step S103 ). The priority or restriction condition considered by the user is input from the input unit 106 .

As an example of a method of creating an update plan based on the failure risk, an optimization method that minimizes the maximum value of the failure risk calculated as a function of the number of years since the creation of the update plan will be described. First, the update plan creation unit 105 determines an initial solution at the update time. The initial solution is the update period as suggested by the transformer manufacturer. Next, the failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates the failure risk of the transformer over the number of years in the case where the update time of the initial solution is updated. Next, delay the initial solution of one of the transformers A1 to A3 by about one year, and recalculate the failure risk for the transformer over the years. Among the update periods in which the initial solution is delayed by about one year, the update period at which the maximum value of the failure risk over the years becomes the smallest is set as the next solution.

The update period at which the maximum value of the fault risk for the transformer over the years becomes the smallest is continuously set as the next solution, and the solution when the update period in which the maximum value of the fault risk becomes smaller is not found is set as the final solution The solution, or the solution when it becomes the value designated by the user is set as the final solution, whereby the update period in which the maximum value of the failure risk to the transformer is minimized can be obtained. In this way, the update plan creation unit 105 can create an update plan for the transformer.

Using the update plan created by the update plan creation unit 105 The image system is output to the user or other systems via the output unit 107 (step S104). Then, the process of the update plan creation support apparatus 100 is completed.

As described above, the update plan creation support apparatus 100 of the present embodiment includes: a failure information storage unit 101 for storing information on the occurrence difficulty of a failure of the display device; and an operation information acquisition unit 103 for obtaining the operation status of the display device The redundant information storage unit 102 stores information on the redundant configuration of the display device; the failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates the failure probability based on the information indicating the difficulty of failure occurrence, and according to the failure probability, display The information on the operation status and the information showing the redundant structure are used to calculate the failure risk; and the update plan creation unit 105 creates an update plan for the equipment according to the failure risk.

In addition, the update plan preparation support method of the present embodiment includes: a failure information memorizing step for memorizing information on the difficulty of occurrence of a failure of the display device; an operation information obtaining step for obtaining information on the operation status control of the display device; The redundant information memory step is to memorize the information of the redundant structure of the display device; the failure risk calculation step is to calculate the probability of failure based on the information indicating the difficulty of occurrence of the failure, and based on the probability of failure, the information showing the operation status and The information of the redundant composition is displayed to calculate the failure risk; and the update plan creation step is to create an update plan of the equipment according to the failure risk.

With the above-described configuration, the failure risk can be calculated from the information on the redundant configuration, the influence of the failure of the equipment on the power system can be appropriately evaluated, and the update timing can be determined. Furthermore, it is possible to create an update plan that minimizes the risk of failure of equipment included in the power system.

In addition, in the above description, the application update plan is made so that the target equipment of the support device 100 is a transformer, and the power system composed of the equipment is a substation, but the target equipment that can also be applied is a plurality of substations. Transformer, and the power system is a transmission system formed by a plurality of substations.

FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a power transmission system composed of a plurality of substations. The power transmission system shown in FIG. 7 is constituted by six substations A to F, and is set to transmit power from substation A to substation F. Substation A is connected to substations B and C respectively, substation B is connected to substations D and F respectively, and substation C is connected to substations D and E respectively. Furthermore, the substation D and the substation E are connected to the substation F. Substation A series has transformers A1, A2, A3; substation B series has transformers B1, B2; substation C series has transformers C1, C2; substation D series has transformers D1, D2, D3; The E series of the substation has transformers E1 and E2; the F series of the substation has transformers F1 and F2.

The failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates the failure risk based on the information of the connection relationship with the detour path of the substation stored in the redundant information storage unit 102 .

For example, using the number w of detour paths of the substation, the failure influence coefficient C1n due to the connection relationship in the equation (2) is represented by the following equation (6).

Among them, w is the number of detour paths, n is the number of the transformer, x is the load factor of the transformer, and c, d, f, and g are the coefficients.

For example, even if the substation B is in a state of failure to function, since there is a detour route for power transmission from the substation A to the substation C, the number w of detour routes in the substation B is 1. Similarly, the substation C has a detour route for power transmission from the substation A to the substation B, and the detour route number w is one.

When substation B falls into a functional loss, power can be transmitted to substations D, E, and F through a detour from substation A to substation C. On the other hand, when the substation C falls into a functional failure, even if the power transmission from the substation A to the substation B is detoured, the power transmission to the substation E cannot be carried out. Therefore, the failure influence degree coefficient due to the connection relationship is set such that the coefficient of the transformer in the substation C is larger than the coefficient of the transformer in the substation B.

In this way, when the power system is a power transmission system formed by a plurality of substations, the risk of failure can be calculated based on the information related to the connection relationship of the substations. impact on the system.

(Embodiment 2)

Fig. 8 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support apparatus for implementing the second embodiment of the present invention. Hereinafter, the description of the same points as those in Embodiment 1 will be omitted, and the description will be given focusing on the differences. The update plan preparation support apparatus 100 of the present embodiment is provided with a deterioration information acquisition unit 108 in addition to the configuration of the first embodiment.

The deterioration information acquisition unit 108 acquires information indicating the deterioration status of the equipment from a sensor or the like installed in the equipment of the application update plan creation support apparatus 100 . Displays information on deterioration conditions, such as the amount of gas dissolved in insulating oil. Other deterioration information may be operating time, number of operations, temperature, pressure, partial discharge voltage, degree of damage, and the like. The deterioration information is represented by level values classified into predetermined stages from measurement values measured by the sensors, and the like.

The failure risk calculation unit 104 corrects the failure occurrence probability based on the deterioration information of the equipment acquired by the deterioration information acquisition unit 108 . Hereinafter, similarly to the first embodiment, a method for correcting the failure occurrence probability will be described by taking the transformer as the target device of the application update plan creation support apparatus 100 .

The amount of gas dissolved in the insulating oil is measured as the deterioration information of the transformer. FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the determination result of the deterioration information acquisition unit of the update plan creation support apparatus for implementing the second embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 9 , the deterioration information acquisition unit 108 classifies the judgment results of four stages, such as no abnormality, caution 1, caution 2, and abnormality, based on measurement results, for example, and assigns coefficients corresponding to the judgment results. At this time, the failure risk calculation unit 104 and the degradation information acquisition unit 108 correct the failure occurrence probability F(t) represented by the formula (1) to the failure occurrence probability F′( t).

F' ( t ) = a × F ( t ) ....(7)

Among them, a is a coefficient depending on a parameter acquired as deterioration information, and t is the number of years elapsed since the update plan was created.

In addition to the above, as a method of correcting the probability of failure from the gas amount of the deterioration information, a predicted value of the gas amount over the years can be used. For example, the elapsed years calculated from the measured value of the gas amount and the predicted value of the gas amount for the elapsed years is ahead of the elapsed years from the installation of the transformer by b years. At this time, the failure risk calculation unit 104 may set γ=b, and correct the failure occurrence probability to the failure occurrence probability F′(t) by the following formula (8).

Among them, m is the Weibull coefficient, η is the scale parameter, and t is the number of years since the update plan was made.

Also in the above-mentioned configuration, as in the first embodiment, the failure risk can be calculated from the information on the redundant configuration. Furthermore, the present embodiment includes the deterioration information acquisition unit 108, whereby the degree of failure of the equipment can be calculated according to the degree of deterioration of the equipment, and the update timing of the equipment can be determined more appropriately.

(Embodiment 3)

Fig. 10 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support apparatus for implementing the third embodiment of the present invention. Hereinafter, the descriptions related to Embodiment 1 are omitted. Similarities are explained, and differences are explained. In the present embodiment, the operation plan memory unit 109 is provided in addition to the configuration of the first embodiment, and an update plan is prepared in consideration of the operating status of the equipment and the situation of changing the redundant configuration.

The operation plan memory unit 109 memorizes the operation plan of the equipment of the application update plan creation support apparatus 100 , such as memorize information related to the output plan and information related to the redundancy plan.

For the information related to the output plan, for example, during the application period of the update plan creation support apparatus 100, the plan load factor of the load factor assumed each year is displayed.

The information related to the redundancy plan is displayed during the application period of the update plan creation support apparatus 100 , which is a plan to change the redundant configuration of the equipment. For example, in parallel redundancy, the planned output contribution rate of the output contribution rate of each equipment to the total output of the equipment operating in parallel is displayed every year, and the failure occurrence of each equipment to the total output of the equipment operating in parallel is displayed every year. The output failure rate of the plan at the time of output failure rate. Alternatively, in multiple redundancy, the device is scheduled to operate as either an active device or a standby device, or a change time from an active device to a standby device, or a change from a standby device to an active device.

Fig. 11 is an example of a flowchart for implementing the update plan creation support apparatus according to the third embodiment of the present invention. Hereinafter, similarly to Embodiment 1, the transformers A1 to A3 shown in FIG. 3 will be described as examples. The definition is as follows: Transformers A1 and A2 are active equipment, and transformer A3 is to be converted from standby equipment to active equipment in the 39th year, and is connected with the transformer. A1 and A2 operate in parallel.

The failure risk calculation unit 104 uses the information related to the configuration of the transformer stored in the failure information storage unit 101 to calculate the probability of failure (step S111 ). The detailed operation is the same as that of step S101 in the first embodiment.

The failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates the failure risk using the output plan stored in the operation plan storage unit 109 and the information related to the redundancy plan (step S112).

The failure risk calculation unit 104 acquires the plan load factor as information related to the output plan stored in the operation plan memory unit 109 . Figure 12 is a graph showing the projected load factor for transformers A1 to A3 over the years. At this time, the failure influence coefficient C'1n due to the connection relationship of the transformers based on the projected load factor is obtained, for example, by the following formula (9).

Among them, n is the serial number of the transformer, x' is the planned load factor, and c, d, f, and g are the coefficients.

The failure risk calculation unit 104 acquires the information related to the redundancy plan stored in the operation plan memory unit 109 . The functional disability risk coefficient C'2n caused by the use form of the information related to the redundancy plan is obtained by the following equations (10) and (11).

Among them, n is the serial number of the transformer, and r is the rated output of the transformer. x' is the planned load factor of the transformer, h', j', k' are the coefficients.

The coefficients of h', j', and k' are determined according to the redundancy plan of the transformer stored in the operation plan memory unit 109 . h' is a parameter that depends on the planned output contribution rate of each transformer to the total output of the transformers operating in parallel. j' is a parameter that depends on the planned output failure rate at the time of failure of each transformer with respect to the total output of the transformers operating in parallel. k' is a parameter that depends on the plan of whether the multi-redundant transformer belongs to the active equipment or the standby equipment.

Based on the failure risk R'(t) of the operation plan stored in the operation plan storage unit 109 for the number of years since the update plan was created, the failure occurrence probability F(t) is calculated by the following formula (12). ), the product of the failure influence coefficient C'1n and the functional disability risk coefficient C'2n.

R' ( t )= C' _{1 n} × C' _{2 n} × F ( t ) ...(12)

Here, n is the transformer number, and t is the number of years since the update plan was created.

In this way, using the output plan and the information related to the redundancy plan, calculate the failure for the number of years elapsed since the update plan was created risk. FIG. 13 is a graph showing the results of the failure risk with respect to the elapsed years of the transformers A1 to A3 calculated by Equation (12). As shown in FIG. 13, it is calculated that the risk of failure of the transformer A3 increases after the 39th year when the transformer A3 is switched from the standby facility to the active facility. In this way, by using the information related to the output plan and the redundancy plan, it is possible to evaluate the operation status of the equipment and the situation of changing the redundancy configuration, and to calculate the failure risk.

The update plan creation unit 105 creates an update plan based on the failure risk obtained by the failure risk calculation unit 104 (step S113). The update plan created by the update plan creation unit 105 is output to the user or another system via the output unit 107 (step S114). Then, the process of the update plan creation support apparatus 100 is completed. The detailed operation is the same as steps S103 and S104 in the first embodiment.

Also in the above-mentioned configuration, similarly to the first embodiment, the failure risk can be calculated from the information on the redundant configuration. Furthermore, the present embodiment is provided with the operation plan memory unit 109, whereby the operating status of the equipment and the situation of changing the redundant configuration can be evaluated to calculate the failure risk, and the update timing of the equipment can be determined more appropriately.

(Embodiment 4)

Fig. 14 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support apparatus for implementing the fourth embodiment of the present invention. Hereinafter, the description of the same points as those in Embodiment 1 will be omitted, and the description will be given focusing on the differences. The update plan preparation support device 100 of the present embodiment is provided with an operation plan change proposal unit 110 in addition to the configuration of the third embodiment.

The operation plan change proposal unit 110 prepares a change plan for the operation plan when the plan stored in the operation plan memory unit 109 in the update plan creation unit 105 cannot create an update plan that satisfies the priority or the restriction condition.

For example, it is assumed that the update plan creation unit 105 does not calculate a solution that satisfies the constraint condition that the maximum value of the failure risk for the number of years since the update plan was created is equal to or less than a predetermined upper limit value. At this time, the operation plan change proposal unit 110 creates a change plan of the operation plan stored in the operation plan memory unit 109 . For example, the planned load factor of the transformer stored in the operation plan memory section 109 is changed. In addition, the transformer plan load factor is changed with the change of the operation form of changing the standby equipment to the active equipment, or changing the active equipment to the standby equipment.

Also in the above-mentioned configuration, as in the first embodiment, the failure risk can be calculated from the information on the redundant configuration. Furthermore, the present embodiment includes the operation plan memory unit 109 and the operation plan change proposal unit 110, whereby the operation plan stored in the operation plan memory unit 109 can be changed by the operation plan change proposal unit 110. Thereby, the operation plan can be changed and the update plan can be appropriately made so as to satisfy the priority or the restriction condition considered by the user.

(Embodiment 5)

Fig. 15 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support apparatus for implementing the fifth embodiment of the present invention. Hereinafter, the description of the same points as those in Embodiment 1 will be omitted, and the description will be given focusing on the differences. Changes to this embodiment In addition to the configuration of the first embodiment, the new plan preparation support apparatus 100 further includes a cost information storage unit 111 .

The fee information storage unit 111 memorizes, for example, the update fee required to update the equipment as the information of the fee required for the maintenance and management of the equipment. The information related to the cost required for maintaining the equipment may be the purchase cost, inspection cost, repair cost, operating cost, replacement cost, construction cost, compensation cost for the reduction of function caused by the occurrence of the failure, or use for Additional fees for supplementary function reductions, rental fees for substitutes, purchase fees for spare parts, etc., contract fees for maintenance personnel who are on standby in preparation for failure, etc.

In addition, it is more preferable that the cost information storage unit 111 memorize the cost required for maintaining the redundant structure as information related to the cost required for the maintenance and management of the equipment. Expenses required to maintain the redundant structure, such as the replacement cost of the standby equipment, the fixed asset amount of the standby equipment, and the increase cost calculated from the assumption that only the active equipment is used.

The update plan creation unit 105 creates an update plan that satisfies the priority or restriction conditions considered by the user based on the failure risk calculated by the failure risk calculation unit 104 and the cost information stored in the cost information storage unit 111 .

Also in the above-mentioned configuration, as in the first embodiment, the failure risk can be calculated from the information on the redundant configuration. Furthermore, the present embodiment is provided with the cost information storage unit 111, thereby making it possible to create an update plan that takes into account both the update cost and the risk of failure of the equipment.

(Embodiment 6)

Fig. 16 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support apparatus for implementing the sixth embodiment of the present invention. Hereinafter, the description of the same points as those of the first embodiment will be omitted, and the differences will be mainly described. In addition to the configuration of the first embodiment, the update plan preparation support apparatus 100 of the present embodiment further includes a device division information storage unit 112 .

The equipment division information storage unit 112 stores information related to equipment division, for example, information about costs that can be reduced by updating a plurality of equipment constituting the power system at the same time. Information about costs that can be reduced by updating a plurality of devices at the same time can also be displayed in combination with information specifying devices such as a manufacturing number and a unique ID.

Information about costs that can be reduced by updating a plurality of devices at the same time, such as a reduction in the transportation cost of the devices, a reduction in the personnel costs for updating, and the like. As for other information, it may also be accompanied by the compensation fee associated with the function reduction during the period of the stoppage of the equipment, the additional fee reduction amount used to make up for the function reduction portion, and the proposal, execution, report, confirmation, etc. of the equipment update operation. Reductions in transaction handling costs, reductions in personnel costs, and administrative costs for information disclosure related to equipment renewal works, etc.

FIG. 17 is an example of a flowchart for implementing the update plan creation support apparatus according to the sixth embodiment of the present invention. The failure risk calculation unit 104 calculates the probability of failure based on the information related to the equipment configuration memorized in the failure information storage unit 101 (step S121 ). Failure Risk Calculation Department 104 calculates the failure risk using the information on the operation status of the display devices stored in the operation information acquisition unit 103 and the information on the redundant configuration of the display devices stored in the redundant information storage unit 102 (step S122). The detailed operation is the same as steps S101 and S102 in the first embodiment.

The update plan creation unit 105 evaluates the failure risk requested by the failure risk calculation unit 104 and the cost that can be reduced by updating the plurality of devices stored in the device division information storage unit 112 at the same time, and creates a solution that satisfies the needs of the user. The update plan of the priority under consideration or the restriction condition (step S123).

As an example of a method for creating an update plan, an optimization method will be described when setting both of the following constraints are satisfied simultaneously: The maximum value of the failure risk calculated as a function of numbers is equal to or less than a predetermined upper limit value, and the total amount of the update cost during the application period of the update plan creation support apparatus 100 is minimized.

The initial solution is the update period recommended by the equipment manufacturer. For the initial solution, calculate the equipment failure risk and update cost when the update period of one of the equipments close to the update period is adjusted to the update period of the other equipment, and the maximum value of the failure risk does not exceed The solution that minimizes the upper limit value and the total update cost is set as the next solution.

Then, continue to set the solution with the maximum value of equipment failure risk not exceeding the upper limit value and the minimum total update cost as the next solution. solution, or The solution when it becomes the user-specified value is set as the final solution. In this way, the update period is determined and an update plan is created.

The update plan change is output to the user or another system via the output unit 107 (step S124). Then, the process of the update plan creation support apparatus 100 is completed.

Also in the above-mentioned configuration, similarly to the first embodiment, the failure risk can be calculated from the information on the redundant configuration. In the present embodiment, the device division information storage unit 112 is provided, and thereby the cost that can be reduced by updating a plurality of devices at the same time can be estimated, and the update timing of the devices can be appropriately determined.

In addition, in the present embodiment, the operation plan memory unit 109 and the operation plan change proposal unit 110 may be further provided. The operation plan memory unit 109 and the operation plan change proposal unit 110 have the same configurations as those shown in the third and fourth embodiments. The operation plan change proposal unit 110 proposes changes to the operation plan based on the information stored in the device division information storage unit 112 .

As an example, the target equipment of the application update plan creation support device 100 is the substation of the power transmission system shown in FIG. 7 , and steps S121 to S123 described above are executed to create an update plan. Here, in the equipment division information storage unit 112, it is defined that when the substation D and the substation E are updated at the same time period, the update cost can be reduced. At this time, the operation plan change proposal unit 110 changes the operation plan so that the failure risk of the substation E also increases during the update period when the failure risk of the substation D becomes high.

Furthermore, when the substations D and E are updated at the same time, since the substation B loses a detour for power transmission to the substation F, it is calculated that the risk of failure becomes relatively large. At this time, the operation plan is changed so that the operation plan of the substation B is less than that of the substation D and E's update period is before the update period.

As described above, by including the operation plan storage unit 109, the operation plan change proposal unit 110, and the equipment division information storage unit 112, the operation plan can be created in consideration of the cost that can be reduced by updating a plurality of devices at the same time. painting. Thereby, the update cost can be reduced while the failure risk is made equal to or less than the predetermined upper limit value.

In addition, in Embodiments 1 to 6, when the update plan is created in the update plan creation unit 105, the priority considered by the user may not be input, and a plurality of priorities may be set in advance in the update plan creation unit 105 , and create a plurality of update plans corresponding to priorities. In this case, the created update plan may output a plurality of update plans in a comparable format, and input from the input unit 106 whether or not the user or other systems of the output result agree or not.

With the above-described configuration, even if the user does not input the priority, it is possible to select an update that is better for the user from among the update plans based on a plurality of priorities set in the update plan creation support device 100 in advance. plan.

(Embodiment 7)

An update plan creation support system 1000 for implementing the seventh embodiment of the present invention will be described. Hereinafter, the description of the same points as those in Embodiment 1 will be omitted, and the description will be given focusing on the differences. The update plan preparation support system 1000 of the present embodiment includes the update plan preparation support device 100 of any one of Embodiments 1 to 6, and performs the update of the redundantly configured equipment constituting the power system. The creation of the plan; and the monitoring device 200, which collects and monitors information showing the operating status of the equipment. The update plan creation support device 100 and the monitoring device 200 can communicate with each other through a wired or wireless network.

Fig. 18 is a diagram showing a schematic configuration of an update plan creation support system for implementing the seventh embodiment of the present invention. Fig. 18(a) is a schematic configuration diagram showing an example in which the monitoring device is installed in a power system such as a power generation station or a substation. Fig. 18(b) is a schematic configuration diagram showing an example in which a monitoring device is installed in a control command place for equipment that controls a power system remotely. As shown in Figs. 18(a) and (b), the monitoring device 200 is installed in, for example, a power system 10a such as a power generation station or a substation, or installed in a remote control power system 10a, 10b (hereinafter, collectively referred to as Inside the control command station 20 of each device of the power system 10). The monitoring device 200 is connected by a wide area network (NW) or a local area network through a wired line such as a communication cable or a wireless line such as a narrowband wireless so as to be able to communicate with each other in the power system 10 or each device of the power system 10 . Fig. 18(b) shows an example of connecting two power systems 10a, 10b, but a plurality of power systems may be further connected.

Fig. 19 shows an embodiment for carrying out the present invention 7. A schematic configuration diagram of the update plan creation support system. As shown in FIG. 19 , the monitoring device 200 includes an operation information collection unit 201 that collects information indicating the operation status of the equipment, and transmits the collected information indicating the operation status to the update plan creation support device 100 . The monitoring device 200 is constituted by, for example, a server connected to a network, a PC (Personal Computer), and the like, and the server and PC include a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a RAM (Random Access Memory), and the like. , random access memory), ROM (Read Only Memory, read only memory) and so on.

The update plan creation support device 100 uses the operation information acquisition unit 103 to acquire information on the operation status of the display device transmitted from the monitoring device 200 . Further, the update plan preparation support apparatus 100 uses the failure risk calculation unit 104 to calculate the failure occurrence probability based on the information on the occurrence difficulty of the failure of the display device stored in the failure information storage section 101, and based on the calculated failure occurrence probability , The information of the redundant structure of the display device stored in the redundant information storage unit 102 and the information of the operation status of the display device obtained by the operation information acquisition unit 103 are used to calculate the failure risk. Furthermore, the update plan for each device is created by the update plan creation unit 105 based on the failure risk.

As described above, the update plan preparation support system 1000 of the present embodiment can determine the update timing by appropriately evaluating the influence of the equipment failure on the power system 10 by calculating the failure risk based on the information about the redundancy configuration. Furthermore, the control commands provided in the power system 10 or provided for each device that controls the power system 10 remotely The monitoring device 200 in the institute 20 is configured to collect the information on the operation status of the display equipment and transmit it to the update plan preparation support device 100, so that the update plan can be prepared using the latest information on the operation status of the display equipment. , to be able to determine a more appropriate update period.

In addition, the monitoring device 200 preferably includes a deterioration information collecting unit 202 in addition to the operation information collecting unit 201 . Fig. 20 is a diagram showing a schematic configuration of an update plan creation support system for implementing the seventh embodiment of the present invention. The deterioration information collection unit 202 of the monitoring device 200 acquires information indicating the deterioration status of the equipment from the sensors installed in the respective equipment targeted by the application update plan preparation support system 1000 , and transmits it to the update plan preparation support device 100 . Deterioration information acquisition unit 108 . The update plan preparation support apparatus 100 calculates the failure risk based on the information indicating the deterioration state acquired by the deterioration information acquisition unit 108, and generates an update plan.

In this way, the monitoring device 200 collects the deterioration information of the equipment and transmits it to the update plan preparation support device 100 , whereby an update plan can be prepared using the latest information on the deterioration status of the display equipment, and a more appropriate update time can be determined.

Furthermore, the monitoring device 200 preferably further includes an update plan receiving unit 203 that receives the update plan created by the update plan creation support device 100 . Fig. 21 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support system for implementing the seventh embodiment of the present invention. The monitoring device 200 is provided with a display unit or the like to display the update plan received by the update plan receiving unit 203 to notify the operator in the power system 10 or the management of the control command station 20. rationale.

As described above, the monitoring device 200 receives the update plan created by the update plan creation support device 100, whereby the operator in the power system 10 in which the monitoring device 200 is installed or the manager of the control command station 20 that controls the power system 10 can Since the update plan is quickly confirmed, the device update plan can be implemented efficiently.

(Embodiment 8)

Fig. 22 is a schematic configuration diagram of an update plan creation support system for implementing the eighth embodiment of the present invention. Hereinafter, the description of the same points as those in Embodiment 1 will be omitted, and the description will be given focusing on the differences. The update plan preparation support system 1000 of the present embodiment includes, in addition to the monitoring device 200 of the seventh embodiment, an abnormality detection unit 204 for detecting abnormality or abnormality premonitory occurring in the equipment constituting the power system. In addition, the update plan preparation support system 1000 includes the update plan preparation support device 100 according to any one of Embodiments 1 to 7, and further includes an abnormality information acquisition unit 113 that acquires the abnormality information from the monitoring device 200 The abnormality detection information transmitted by the abnormality detection unit 204 of the 1 is used as at least one of the information showing the difficulty of occurrence of the failure and the information showing the redundant structure.

The abnormality detection unit 204 of the monitoring device 200 collects information related to abnormality or signs of abnormality from the power system, and detects whether there is an abnormality or signs of abnormality in equipment constituting the power system. As far as the method of detecting abnormalities or abnormal premonitions occurring in the equipment constituting the power system is concerned, for example, collecting information on the types of obstacles that have occurred in the equipment constituting the power system. error code. In addition, it can be realized by the following methods, etc.: the information showing the operation status of the power system and the equipment constituting the power system collected from the operation information collecting unit 201 and the measurement values of the sensors installed in the equipment, etc. to diagnose.

The abnormality detection unit 204 generates abnormality detection information when abnormality or abnormality of the equipment is detected. The abnormality detection information is, for example, the date and time of abnormality detection, information related to the equipment that detected the abnormality, and information showing the content of abnormality detection. The information related to the equipment in which the abnormality is detected, as long as it is information that can specify the equipment of the power system, for example: ID information assigned to each equipment, form number or manufacture number of each equipment, ID information and type or A combination of manufacturing numbers. Further, the information showing the content of abnormality detection may be content that can specifically designate the abnormality of each device, for example, an error code, a status code that displays the operation or standby of the device, and the name of the abnormal event.

Moreover, in addition to the above-mentioned abnormality detection information, it may also include: the time when the abnormality of the equipment occurs or the operation status of the power system and the equipment, the restart or disconnection of the equipment and other means to relieve the abnormality, redundancy Information on the presence or absence of changes to the composition.

The abnormality information acquisition unit 113 of the update plan creation support device 100 acquires the abnormality detection information transmitted from the monitoring device 200 as at least one of the information indicating the occurrence difficulty of the failure of the device and the information of the redundant structure of the display device. One piece of information is stored in the fault information storage unit 101 and the redundant information storage unit 102 respectively.

Therefore, the display obtained by the abnormal information obtaining unit 113 is used. The information on the difficulty of occurrence of the fault, such as: date and time of abnormality detection, information related to the equipment targeted for abnormality detection, and information showing the content of abnormality detection. The information on the redundant configuration of the display device obtained by the abnormal information obtaining unit 113 , for example, the presence or absence of a change in the redundant configuration.

The information showing the redundant structure can also be used to determine the presence or absence of a change in the redundant structure by estimating the operating status of the equipment from the information about the equipment that detected the abnormality and the information showing the content of the abnormality detection. In addition, it is also possible to judge the redundant configuration from the operation status of the electric power system and equipment obtained by the operation information collection unit 201 of the monitoring device 200 and the operation information collection unit 103 of the support device 100 using an update plan. The presence or absence of changes.

Hereinafter, an example of the processing procedure of the update plan creation support system 1000 will be described. Fig. 23 is an example of a flowchart for implementing the update plan creation support system according to the eighth embodiment of the present invention. When the abnormality detection part 204 of the monitoring apparatus 200 detects abnormality or abnormality sign in the equipment which comprises an electric power system, it generates abnormality detection information (step S201). The monitoring device 200 transmits the abnormality detection information created by the abnormality detection unit 204 to the update plan creation support device 100 (step S202). The update plan creation support apparatus 100 uses the abnormality information acquisition unit 113 to acquire the transmitted abnormality detection information (step S203). The abnormality information acquisition unit 113 stores the abnormality detection information in the failure information storage unit 101 and the redundant information storage unit 102 as information indicating the occurrence difficulty of the failure and information indicating the redundant structure (step S204 ). ).

In addition, the update plan creation support device 100 is used The information of the difficulty of occurrence of failure is displayed to calculate the probability of failure. In addition, the failure risk is calculated using the calculated failure probability, the information indicating the redundant configuration, and the information indicating the operation status. Make an update plan based on the risk of failure. The detailed operations are the same as those of steps S101 to S104 in the first embodiment.

As described above, the update plan preparation support system 1000 according to the present embodiment calculates the failure risk based on the information on the redundant configuration, thereby appropriately evaluating the influence of the equipment failure on the power system, and determining the update timing. Furthermore, in the present embodiment, the abnormality detection unit 204 of the monitoring device 200 is used to detect abnormality or abnormality signs to generate abnormality detection information, and the abnormality information acquisition unit 113 of the update plan creation support device 100 acquires abnormality detection information. The information is at least one of information showing the difficulty of occurrence of the failure and information showing the operation status. Thereby, the user's man-hours for inputting from the input unit 106 to the failure information storage unit 101 and the redundant information storage unit 102 can be omitted, and the work of creating an update plan can be made more efficient. Furthermore, even if the redundancy configuration is temporarily changed due to a sudden abnormality, the risk of failure can be appropriately evaluated.

In addition, a plurality of constituent elements disclosed in Embodiments 1 to 8 may be appropriately combined within a range that does not deviate from the gist of the present invention.

In addition, in Embodiments 1 to 8, the target equipment of the application update plan creation support device 100 and the update plan creation support system 1000 is a transformer or a substation as an example, and the power system constructed using the target equipment is a substation. The power transmission system is used as an example, but the target equipment may be the equipment constituting the power plant, and the power system may be the power generation system. Equipment constituting a power plant, such as: fuel tanks, boilers, turbines, generators, transformers. With such a configuration, the risk of failure can be calculated based on the information on the redundant configuration of equipment in the power plant, and an update plan for appropriately evaluating the impact of equipment failure on the power generation system can be prepared.

100‧‧‧Update project creation support device

101‧‧‧Fault information memory department

102‧‧‧Redundant information memory

103‧‧‧Operation Information Acquisition Department

104‧‧‧Failure Risk Calculation Department

105‧‧‧Renewal Plan Completion Department

106‧‧‧Input

107‧‧‧Output

Claims (8)

An update plan preparation support device is provided with: a failure information storage unit for storing and displaying information on the difficulty of failure of equipment configured in a redundant configuration constituting a power system; an operation information acquisition unit for obtaining and displaying the aforementioned equipment The information on the operation status of the equipment; the redundant information memory unit stores information showing the redundant configuration of the equipment; the failure risk calculation unit calculates the probability of failure based on the information showing the difficulty of occurrence of the failure. The probability of occurrence of the failure, the information showing the operation status, and the information showing the redundancy structure are used to calculate the failure risk of the influence of the failure of the equipment on the power system; and the update plan preparation department is based on the failure risk. Create an update plan for the equipment, wherein the information showing the redundant configuration includes information on whether the equipment is an active equipment or a standby equipment, and the failure risk calculation unit adds or The failure risk is calculated by multiplying by a value, which is set to be greater when the device is the active device than when the device is the standby device. An update plan preparation support device, comprising: a failure information memory unit for memorizing and displaying information on the difficulty of occurrence of failures of equipment that constitutes a power system and that are configured to be redundant; The operation information acquisition unit acquires information showing the operation status of the aforementioned equipment; the redundant information memory unit memorizes the information showing the aforementioned redundant configuration of the aforementioned equipment; Calculate the probability of failure according to the information of the failure occurrence probability, the information showing the operation status and the information showing the redundancy structure, to calculate the failure risk of the influence degree of the failure of the equipment on the power system; and update the calculation The drawing creation unit makes an update plan for the equipment according to the failure risk; wherein, the information showing the redundant composition includes: the output contribution rate of the equipment to the total output of the equipment operating in parallel, and the contribution of the equipment to the total output of the equipment operating in parallel. At least one of the information on the output failure rate when the failure of the total output of the equipment operating in parallel occurs, and the failure risk calculation unit calculates the failure risk by adding or multiplying the failure probability by a value. The value is set by using at least one of the information on the output contribution rate and the output obstacle rate as a parameter. The update plan creation support apparatus described in claim 1 or 2 of the scope of the claim, further comprising: a deterioration information acquisition unit for acquiring information showing the deterioration status of the equipment; the failure risk calculation unit based on the information indicating the deterioration status information to calculate the aforementioned failure risk. Support for the creation of an update plan as described in Item 1 or 2 of the scope of the application The apparatus further includes: an operation plan memory unit that stores information related to the output plan of the equipment and information related to the redundancy plan; the failure risk calculation unit is based on the output plan and the redundancy plan. plan to calculate the aforementioned failure risk. The update plan creation support apparatus described in claim 4 further includes: an operation plan change proposal unit that creates the change plan of the output plan and the redundancy plan. The update plan creation support device according to the claim 1 or 2 of the scope of the application further comprises: a cost information storage unit for storing information related to the cost required for the maintenance and management of the aforementioned equipment; the aforementioned update plan creation unit is Based on the information related to the aforementioned failure risk and the expenses required for the maintenance and management of the aforementioned equipment, the aforementioned update plan for the aforementioned equipment is prepared. An update plan preparation support method, comprising: a fault information memory step of memorizing information showing the difficulty of occurrence of faults of equipment that constitutes a power system and configured to be redundant; and an operation information acquisition step of acquiring and displaying the aforementioned The information on the operation status of the equipment; the redundant information memory step is to memorize and display the information of the aforementioned redundant composition of the aforementioned equipment; the failure risk calculation step is to calculate the failure probability based on the information showing the occurrence difficulty of the aforementioned failure, and Based on the probability of occurrence of the failure, the information indicating the operating status, and the information indicating the redundant configuration, the amount of the failure indicating the equipment to the power system is calculated. The failure risk of the impact degree; and the step of creating an update plan, which is to create the update plan of the aforementioned equipment according to the aforementioned failure risk; wherein, the information showing the aforementioned redundant composition includes: whether the aforementioned equipment belongs to the active equipment or the standby equipment. For one piece of information, the failure risk calculation step calculates the failure risk by adding or multiplying the failure probability by a value, which is set so that when the device is the active device, the device is in the standby state rather than the device. Equipment is even bigger. An update plan preparation support method, comprising: a fault information memory step of memorizing information showing the difficulty of occurrence of faults of equipment that constitutes a power system and configured to be redundant; and an operation information acquisition step of acquiring and displaying the aforementioned The information on the operation status of the equipment; the redundant information memory step is to memorize and display the information of the aforementioned redundant composition of the aforementioned equipment; the failure risk calculation step is to calculate the failure probability based on the information showing the occurrence difficulty of the aforementioned failure, and According to the probability of occurrence of the failure, the information showing the operation status, and the information showing the redundancy configuration, the failure risk indicating the degree of influence of the equipment failure on the power system is calculated; and the step of creating an update plan is based on the failure. risk to make an update plan for the above-mentioned equipment; wherein, the information showing the above-mentioned redundant composition includes: the above-mentioned equipment For at least one of the information on the output contribution rate of the total output of the equipment operating in parallel, and the information on the output failure rate of the equipment with respect to the total output of the equipment operating in parallel, the failure risk calculation step is performed on The failure risk is calculated by adding or multiplying the failure probability by a value set by using at least one of the information of the output contribution rate and the output failure rate as a parameter.

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