KR101906858B1 - Flood forecast method using numerical model and perimeter interpolation - Google Patents

Abstract

The present invention relates to a river flood forecast method based on a numerical model. The river flood forecast method can rapidly and accurately forecast a flood-prone area corresponding to actual flood volume without operation of a numerical model by setting a destruction point (10) assuming breaking of a river embankment, forecasting the flood-prone zone around the destruction point (10) by stimulating a flood situation with the numerical model, repeatedly carrying out the forecast as flood quantity increases and decreases to set the flood-prone zone for each flood quantity, and interpolating a flooding line (20), which is a preset flooding zone boundary, when an actual flood occurs. According to the present invention, the river flood forecast method can quickly and accurately forecast the flood-prone zone formed due to river flooding, thereby reducing human and material damage due to river flooding.

Description

FIELD FORECAST METHOD USING NUMERICAL MODEL AND PERIMETER INTERPOLATION [0002]

The present invention relates to a numerical model-based river flood forecasting, wherein a destruction point (10) assuming a river bank depression is set, and a flood area is simulated with a numerical model to predict a flood zone around the destruction point (10) , It is repeatedly performed with increasing or decreasing the flood amount to set the flood area by the flood amount and then interpolate the flood line 20 which is the boundary line of the flood area at the time of actual flood, So that it can be predicted quickly.

Numerical models have been used to predict inundation zones due to river flooding, and the related art is disclosed in Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 2009-16866.

The conventional numerical model-based river flood prediction method including Patent Publication No. 2009-16866 is to simulate the flooding situation by inputting the measured flood volume and the predicted flood volume and the terrain information into the numerical model, It takes a long time to calculate the area, and there is a serious problem that it is impossible to predict and warn under real situations.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION It is an object of the present invention to provide a method for predicting a river flood using a computer and a numerical model, the method comprising: inputting a destruction point (10) and a terrain information to a numerical model (S20) for calculating a flood line (20) by calculating a flood line (20) by inputting a computed flood amount into a numerical model installed in a computer and calculating a flood line (20) The flood line 20 corresponding to the large flood water quantity and the small flood water quantity, respectively, is set as the minimum flood water quantity and the maximum calculated flood water quantity which are less than the actual flood water quantity, A flood line extraction step S30 for setting the flood water line 21 and the low water repellency line 22 respectively to the flood water line 21 and the low water repellent line 22, And a submergence precursor step (S40) for calculating an interpolation water immersion line (25) corresponding to the amount of the flood water.

In addition, the inter-immersion step (S40) includes a step of extracting the geographical information from the computer-readable program to form a plurality of radiation baselines (30) arranged radially in a plane around the fracture point (10) (S41) for calculating a termination ground line (35), which is a ground line on the vertical plane passing through the center line (30), and a termination calculation step A water level setting step S42 for setting horizontal lines passing through the overlap points on the line 35 to the water surface line 27 and the water surface line 28 respectively and the prediction program installed in the computer to set the water surface line 28, A water surface interpolation step S43 for calculating an interpolated water surface line 29 which is a horizontal line dividing the area between the line 27 and the termination ground line 35 into a ratio satisfying the relationship between the large water quantity and the small flood quantity and the actual flood quantity , A prediction program installed in the computer is transmitted to the interpolation water surface line 29 and the longitudinal plane And an intersection connecting step (S44) of calculating an intersection point of the intersection points of the intersection points (35) by the radial baseline (30) and connecting the calculated intersections to calculate the interpolation floodwater line (25) Is a river flood prediction method.

According to the present invention, it is possible to quickly and accurately predict the flooded area formed due to river flooding, thereby reducing human and material damage due to river flooding.

In particular, it is possible to solve the problems of the prior art that it is impossible to timely alarm the flood flooding and the flood risk by taking a long time in the process of performing numerical simulation with the input flood value at the occurrence of the flood.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS FIG.
2 is a flow chart
Figure 3 is a topographic map around a fracture point and an example of a computational grid
Figure 4 is a graphical illustration of a computational grid and a submerged line of the present invention
Figure 5 is a topographical illustration of the floodplain of the present invention,
Figure 6 is an exemplary topographical representation of an interpolated flood line of the present invention
FIG. 7 is a flowchart of an embodiment of the radiation reference line application of the present invention
Figure 8 is a topographic view of the < RTI ID = 0.0 >
9 is a longitudinal sectional view of the embodiment of Fig. 7
FIG. 10 is a longitudinal sectional view showing the interpolation water surface line of the embodiment of FIG.
Figure 11 is a topographic map of the < RTI ID = 0.0 >

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS The present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.

First, FIG. 1 is a view of a river basin to which the present invention is applied. As shown in FIG. 1, a plurality of breakage points 10 on a lower basin can be set, and a plurality of water level tables stage station and a rainfall station to calculate the flood volume.

The destruction point 10 is set in a flood vulnerability portion, that is, a water intake portion or a dam damage portion, and simulates the flood by assuming the destruction of the embankment at the corresponding point.

In other words, if rainfall above a certain level is observed in a rainfall observatory in a watershed or if a water level above a certain level is measured in a watershed table, the actual flood volume is calculated based on the measured flood volume, (10) is collapsed to predict the flooding zone.

The actual flood volume is the flow volume adjacent to the breakdown point (10) at the time of actual flood, the measured flow obtained by substituting the water level observed in the water level table into the water level-flow relation curve is applied, And the calculated flood amount can be applied.

Also, as shown in FIG. 1, it is highly possible that the water level table is not installed at the destruction point 10. Therefore, the actual flood water amount may be calculated by converting the flow rate measured in the nearby water level table by using the watershed area ratio or the like .

The flood forecasting method of the present invention is a computer-implemented program that includes a numerical model simulating a river flood, a terrain information and a flood amount, which are input information of a numerical model, and a flood area, ) And the like are stored in a storage device of a computer and are executed by a prediction program which is a program for processing the data. The failure point 10 and the terrain information are input to a numerical model mounted on the computer, The terrain input step S10 is started.

As a numerical model for carrying out the present invention, a SCHISM model or a Delft3D model capable of simulating the underground flow and the overflow can be applied. In the step of inputting the terrain (S10), the terrain information inputted is the elevation And specifications of various ground installations, and is inputted in the form of a calculation grid created based on the topographic map as shown in FIG.

When the terrain input step (S10) is completed, the computed flood amount is input to the numerical model installed in the computer, and the numerical model calculates the flood line (20), and the flood line The calculation step S20 is performed, whereby the flood line 20 for a plurality of calculated flood quantities set for each section can be calculated as shown in FIG.

In the calculation grid illustrated in FIG. 4, the flooded lines 20 for the total of four computed flood quantities have been calculated, and the flooded lines 20 thus calculated may be superimposed on the topographic map and output as shown in FIG.

The four floodwater lines 20 illustrated in FIG. 5 are calculated for floods of 1,000 m 3 / s, 1,200 m 3 / s, 1,400 m 3 / s and 1,600 m 3 / s, respectively, Can be confirmed.

In the flooded line calculation step S20, the flooded lines 20 for various computed flood quantities are calculated, and in the state where the calculated flooded lines 20 are stored in the computer's storage device by the prediction program, actual floods are generated, The flood line extraction step S30 to the flood line interconnection step S40 to be described later is performed so that the flood line 20 (step S40) can be quickly performed without operating the actual flood simulation numerical model, It is preferable to apply the minimum of the above-described calculated flood quantities to the flood volume reference value at which the flood water extraction step S30 is started.

In addition, if the flow rate of the stream continuously increases due to the continuous rainfall, the actual flood amount in the flood line withdrawal step (S30) to the immersion advance step (S40) is also continuously updated, The flooding line 20 to be formed at the time of breaking the bank is able to be predicted in real time.

That is, according to the present invention, the process up to the flood line calculation step (S20) is normally performed, and the flood line calculation step (S20) is performed at the time of flood. , If the flood occurs and the possibility of breaking the bank at the destruction point (10) is raised, the computer implemented forecasting program calculates the minimum calculated flood amount exceeding the actual flood amount and the maximum calculated flood amount below the actual flood amount as the A flood line extraction step S30 is performed in which the flood control lines 20 corresponding to the large flood water amount and the small flood water amount are drawn out and set as the flood water line 21 and the low water inflow point 22, respectively.

After the flood line extraction step (S30) is performed, the predicted program installed in the computer calculates the interpolation flood line 25 corresponding to the actual flood amount by interpolating the flood water line 21 and the turnoff water line 22 The flooded line 20 corresponding to the actual flood amount can be accurately predicted as shown in FIG. 6, and the resident evacuation can be induced or the disaster prevention plan can be established based on this.

In the embodiment illustrated in FIG. 6, a flood amount of 1,500 m 3 / s is applied as the actual flood amount, and 1,400 m 3 / s and 1,600 m 3 / s are set as the small flood amount and the large flood amount, respectively, The repaired waterline 22 and the repaired waterline 21 were linearly interpolated to produce the interpolation water line 25.

On the other hand, in the case of calculating the interpolation water immersion line 25 by simple linear interpolation between the water-drop line 22 and the flood water line 21 based on the ratio of the flood amount, the actual landform change can not be reflected. In step S40, the radial baseline 30 and the cross sectional area ratio are applied. In the application example of the radial baseline 30 according to the present invention, the submergence interstage step S40 includes, as shown in FIG. 7, A plurality of radiation baselines 30 that are arranged radially in a plane around the destruction point 10 are formed by a prediction program mounted on the radiation baseline 30 and a terrestrial line on the vertical plane passing through the radiation baseline 30, (Step S41) for calculating the termination number (35).

That is, as shown in FIG. 8, the prediction program is configured to arrange a plurality of radial baselines 30 in conformal radial directions around the topographic fracture point 10, 9, a longitudinal sectional view of the horizontal radiation reference line 30 is shown in FIG. 9, but a vertical sectional view of each radiation reference line 30 is separately prepared in the same manner, Device.

After the termination calculation step S41 is completed, the horizontal line passing through the overlapping point on the longitudinal ground line 35 corresponding to the thick water line 21 and the thick water line 22 is referred to as a horizontal line, The forecasting program installed in the computer is executed between the minor water line 28, the water surface line 27 and the end floor line 35 (S43) for calculating the interpolation water surface line (29), which is a horizontal line dividing the area of the water surface area into a ratio satisfying the relation between the large water quantity, the small flood water quantity and the actual flood water quantity, The radiation reference line 30 of FIG.

In performing the water surface interpolation step S43, the interpolation water surface line 29 is formed by dividing the area between the large water surface line 27 and the longitudinal water surface line 35 by a ratio satisfying the relationship between the large water amount, the small flood amount and the actual flood amount As shown in FIG. 10, the area between the large water surface line 27 and the small water surface line 28 and the end ground line 35 and the area between the small water surface line 28 and the interpolation water surface line 29 and the longitudinal plane The ratio of the area between the lines 35 is set to be equal to the difference between the great water quantity and the small flood quantity and the difference between the actual flood quantity and the small flood quantity, The interpolation water surface line 29 and the interpolation water surface line 29 are obtained by repeatedly calculating the area between the small water surface line 28 and the interpolation water surface line 29 and the end surface ground line 35 while raising the water surface 28 from the starting point, As shown in FIG.

After the end calculation step S41 and the water surface interpolation step S43 described above are completed for each radiation baseline 30, the prediction program installed in the computer is used to calculate the intersection point of the interpolation water surface line 29 and the longitudinal floor line 35 The intersection connecting step S44 of calculating the interpolation flood line 25 by calculating the number of the intersection points of the radiation baselines 30 and calculating the interpolation flood line 25 is performed, (25) can be calculated.

10: Destruction point
20: flood line
21: Repeat repair
22: Repairs repairs
25: Interpolation flood line
27: Large water surface line
28: minor water line
29: interpolated water line
30: Radial baseline
35: Termination ground wire
S10: terrain input step
S20: flood line calculation step
S30: flooding line withdrawal step
S40: Step between immersion
S41: Termination calculation step
S42: Sleep setting step
S43: Sleep interpolation step
S44: Cross-connection step

Claims (2)

A method for predicting a river flood using a computer and a numerical model, comprising: a terrain input step (S10) in which a destruction point (10) and a terrain information are input to a numerical model mounted on a computer; A flood line calculation step (S20) of calculating a flood line (20) by repeating the calculation of the flood line (20) while varying the calculated flood volume; and a flood line calculation step The flood line 20 corresponding to the large flood water quantity and the small flood water quantity is drawn out and the flood water line 21 and the low flood water line 22 A flooded line drawing step S30 for setting an interpolation flood line 25 corresponding to the actual flood flow by interpolating the flood water line 21 and the reduced water line 22, simple In the river flood predicting method using a numerical model and immersion line interpolation consisting of (S40),
The immersion interstage step S40 is a step in which the prediction program installed on the computer fetches the terrain information to form a plurality of radial baselines 30 arranged radially in a plane around the fracture point 10, (S41) of calculating a terminal ground line (35) which is a ground line on a vertical plane passing through the terminal ground line (35);
The forecasting program installed on the computer sets the horizontal lines passing through the overlapping points on the vertical ground line 35 corresponding to the vertical water line 21 and the vertical water line 22 respectively to the large water line 27 and the small water line 28 (S42);
An interpolation program which is a horizontal line dividing the area between the minor water line 28, the large water line 27 and the end ground line 35 at a rate satisfying the relationship between the large water quantity and the small flood quantity and the actual flood quantity, A water surface interpolation step S43 for calculating the water surface line 29;
A prediction program mounted on the computer calculates an intersection point of the interpolation water line 29 and the longitudinal ground line 35 for each radiation reference line 30 and calculates an interpolation flood line 25 by connecting the calculated intersection points And a connection step (S44). The flood forecasting method using the numerical model and flood line interpolation. delete

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