CN111159848B - Flood risk simulation method under extreme environment of rainstorm, high water level and high tide level - Google Patents
Flood risk simulation method under extreme environment of rainstorm, high water level and high tide level Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a flood risk simulation method under extreme environments of rainstorm, high water level and high tide level, which comprises the following steps: collecting target data in a target area, and performing compilation processing according to the HOHY2 model data format requirement to lay a data foundation for model construction and verification; constructing a target area one-dimensional flood risk simulation model by using the target data and adopting an HOHY2 model; and (3) carrying out numerical simulation on the submerging water depth of the target area and the urban submerging water depth by utilizing the constructed one-dimensional flood risk simulation model in combination with different typical working conditions to obtain a submerging water depth map of the target area, and determining the high-risk area of the flood disaster in combination with the history and the actual conditions of the area. The method can quickly and accurately simulate flood risk conditions such as the submergence depth of the target area, the flood evolution process, the flood propagation time and the like under different working conditions.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field, in particular to a flood risk simulation method under extreme environments of rainstorm, high water level and high tide level.
Background
In recent years, under the background of global warming, typhoon, rainstorm and flood disasters frequently occur in coastal areas of China, the scale is huge, great harm is caused to production and life of local people every year, and research and prevention of storm surge and flood disasters caused by storm surge become a hot research problem of emergency disaster prevention. In the face of increasingly frequent and serious flood disasters in China coastal areas, it is necessary to perform flood risk simulation in extreme environments while strengthening engineering facility construction.
At present, flood risk research and simulation in extreme environments at home and abroad mainly focuses on considering the influence of typhoon factors on the water increase and decrease distribution of storm surge in coastal areas and considering flood distribution in coastal areas under the action of typhoon and rain. However, when the typhoon rain causes a flood such as a severe astronomical tide and a high-value typhoon surge (overlapping rainstorm, climax and typhoon), the influence of overlapping effects of typhoon, rainstorm and high-tide disaster causing factors on the risk disasters in the watershed of the coastal region can not be comprehensively considered. For coastal cities, the research on the joint action and the associated characteristics of flood-causing factors is more insufficient. From a series of researches and applications developed at home and abroad, the researches on storm surge disasters are mainly based on simply assumed researches on single influence factors of typhoon rain, high tide level, levee break and the like, a storm surge disaster composite scenario analysis system which comprehensively considers the joint action of tide level, water level and typhoon rain and has certain logic analysis and various phenomena of flood beach, overflow and the like is not formed, the researches on disaster scenarios are incomplete, and the comprehensive reflection capability is poor.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a flood risk simulation method under extreme environments of rainstorm, high water level and high tide level aiming at the technical defects in the prior art.
The technical scheme adopted for realizing the purpose of the invention is as follows:
a flood risk simulation method in a rainstorm high-water-level high-tide-level extreme environment comprises the following steps:
s1, collecting target data in a target area, and performing compilation processing according to the HOHY2 model data format requirement to lay a data foundation for model construction and verification;
s2, constructing a target area one-dimensional flood risk simulation model by using the target data and adopting an HOHY2 model;
and S3, combining different typical working conditions, performing numerical simulation on the submergence depth of the target area and the urban submergence depth by using the constructed one-dimensional flood risk simulation model to obtain a submergence depth map of the target area, and determining the high-risk area of the flood disaster by combining the history and the actual situation of the area.
The step S2 of constructing the one-dimensional flood risk simulation model of the target area includes the following steps:
1) importing the collected research area river cross section data into an HOHY2 model to construct a complex one-dimensional river network model, further generalizing the river network, merging the river channels of the areas with dense river networks into one of the areas, and merging the corresponding small buildings into one;
2) a polygonal area defined by river channels of the one-dimensional complex river network model is used as an overflow unit, the overflowing water of the river channels enters the overflow unit, the relation between water level and volume curve is obtained in the overflow unit through DEM data analysis, and the water level in the overflow unit is obtained through the total water amount;
3) adding rainfall boundaries to rainfall partitions of the whole target area, respectively inputting net rain-duration sequences of the rainfall partitions, calculating through convergence to obtain a production flow, connecting the production flow to an overflow unit through side inflow of a flooding area unit, connecting the overflow unit with a river channel section or a junction through an abstract unit, and reflecting a drainage effect through a scheduling rule of the abstract unit;
analyzing the DEM data of the drainage basin by using a GIS to obtain a water level-reservoir capacity relation curve of the water storage unit of the flooding area, adding rainfall boundaries according to rainfall partitions of a target area, and respectively connecting the rainfall boundaries with the water storage unit of the flooding area to accommodate rainfall runoff yield; water volume is exchanged between the flood area water storage unit and the river network through the drainage generalization and overflow unit so as to describe the phenomena of artificial drainage, river overflow and breach.
The target data comprises terrain data, water level flow, typhoon and rain, historical tide level data, multi-year average tide level, river network data and lake initial water level data.
In step S2, a one-dimensional flood risk simulation model of the target area is constructed using an HOHY2 model according to the river network structure, the river cross section, and the digital terrain elevation data of the target area.
In step S2, after the one-dimensional flood risk simulation model of the target area is constructed, typical historical floods of a session are selected to perform calibration verification on the constructed one-dimensional flood risk simulation model, and calculation parameters are adjusted reasonably by comparing and analyzing measured values and simulated values of water level or flow until the simulation result meets the precision requirement.
Wherein, according to selecting typical high water level, typhoon and high tide level, make up different to obtain different typical operating modes.
On the basis of research results of high water level, typhoon and high tide level encounter rules, the method analyzes the characteristics of flood high water level change in coastal areas and flood in peripheral river network areas, analyzes river basin flood risks caused by encounters of river basin flood, typhoon and high tide level, perfects a scheduling scheme, and provides technical support for over-standard flood emergency scheduling in a target area.
Aiming at the problems that disaster factors of flood disasters in coastal areas have complexity, multi-dimensionality and the like, the flood risk distribution of the target area after combined action of rainstorm, typhoon and tide level is considered innovatively, and flood risk conditions such as the submergence depth, the flood evolution process, the flood propagation time and the like of the target area under different working conditions can be simulated rapidly and accurately.
The invention adopts the geographic information system technology, and introduces the GIS technology to express the possible submerging range and water depth under a certain flood condition in a multi-level manner, so that the submerging result management is more convenient and faster, and a reference basis is provided for a decision maker to make a flood control decision.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a comparison graph of water level calculation and actual measurement of Taihu lake;
FIG. 2 is a diagram of the inundated water depth of a Taihu lake basin under the conventional scheduling of the working condition 1;
FIG. 3 is a diagram of the inundated water depth of a Taihu lake basin under the conventional scheduling of the working condition 2;
FIG. 4 is a diagram of the inundated water depth of a Taihu lake basin under the condition of standard out-of-standard scheduling of the working condition 3;
FIG. 5 is a diagram of the inundated water depth of the Taihu lake basin under the condition of the standard 4 scheduling.
Detailed Description
The invention is described in further detail below with reference to the figures and specific examples. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not intended to limit the invention.
The invention discloses a flood risk simulation method under extreme environments of rainstorm, high water level and high tide level, which comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: defining a target area;
the target area is a Taihu river basin, data such as a river network structure, terrain, dikes, rainfall, typhoons, tide levels and the like of the Taihu river basin are integrally compiled and processed, and a data foundation is laid for model construction and verification.
Step two: importing collected river section data of a research area into an HOHY2 model to construct a complex one-dimensional river network model, further generalizing the river network, merging the river channels of the area with dense river networks into one of the river networks, merging corresponding small buildings into one, and improving the operation speed of the model under the principle of ensuring precision;
and connecting each river channel of the one-dimensional complex river network model with a polygonal area defined by the river channels by using an overflow unit, wherein the overflowing water quantity of the river channels enters the overflow unit. And (4) performing topological connection, extracting water level-volume relation curve data of the flood unit by using DELTA MAPPER on the basis of DEM data, and inputting the water level-volume relation curve data into the model.
The whole Taihu lake basin is divided into 16 rainfall partitions, 16 rainfall boundaries are added, the clean rain-duration sequences of the rainfall partitions are respectively input, the water yield is obtained through a convergence calculation formula in the rainfall boundaries, the flooding unit is connected through side inflow of the flooding area unit, the flooding unit is connected with the river channel section or the junction through an abstraction unit, and the effect of drainage of stagnant water is reflected through a scheduling rule formula.
The Taihu lake basin model after the range expansion and the incorporation of the rainfall and waterlogging draining units comprises 2394 river channel cross sections, 25 flow boundaries and 42 water level boundaries. And dividing the area outside the river network into 198 flood area water storage units according to the cross distribution condition of the river channels so as to accommodate the flood discharged from the channel, and analyzing the DEM data of the drainage basin by using a GIS (geographic information system) to obtain a water level-reservoir capacity relation curve of the flood area water storage units. Adding 16 rainfall boundaries according to rainfall partitions of the Taihu lake basin, and respectively connecting the rainfall boundaries with corresponding flooding area water storage units to accommodate rainfall runoff yield. Water volume is exchanged between the flood area water storage units and the river network through the drainage generalization and overflow units (1504) so as to describe the phenomena of artificial drainage, river overflow and breach. In addition, the flood control building contains 111 gates and corresponding pumping stations.
Because HOHY2 is a model facing the flow in the river channel, the section data only has river bottom elevation, width and slope significance, and the elevation of the levee tops on two sides is a meaningless numerical value. Therefore, the invention incorporates the collected actual river bank data into the model.
After the complete full basin model was built, it was verified against the 1999 flood from month 6 to month 8. After inputting the boundary conditions, the ISIS calculates the flood course during the period of 6-8 months 1999, and the calculated value of the water level of the lake tai is compared with the actual measurement course as shown in fig. 1. The result shows that the fitting degree of the water level or flow process of each measuring station is high, the relative error can be controlled within 3 percent, and the established model can provide a calculation platform for flood risk simulation and evaluation.
Step three: 4 typical condition analyses were selected. And selecting a typical Taihu lake high water level, a typhoon and rain level and a high tide level, and carrying out different combinations to obtain different typical working conditions. The high water level of the Taihu lake is 4.65m and 5.2m, the water level of 4.65m is the designed water level of the Taihu lake flood, and the highest control water level of the Taihu lake is 5.20m for preventing and treating the occurrence of dike breaking; based on safety consideration, the highest historical tide level is selected as the high tide level; the typhoon is selected from 2009 Moraxe typhoon, 2005 Maisha typhoon and 1962 No. 6214 typhoon as typical typhoon and rain input conditions.
Working condition 2: the highest tide level +2005 typhoon and rain +4.65m Taihu lake water level;
working condition 3: the highest tide level +2009 typhoon and rain +4.65m Taihu water level;
working condition 5: the highest tide level +2005 typhoon and rain +5.2m Taihu lake water level;
working condition 6: the highest tide level +2009 typhoon and rain +5.2m Taihu lake water level.
Step four:
(1) typical operating condition submerged depth analysis
And (3) converting the flood retention into water depth by utilizing GIS software for secondary development, dividing the water depth into 6 types, and obtaining the submerging range areas of different water depths as shown in the table 1.
TABLE 1
As can be seen from Table 1, the range of less than 0.1m exceeds 50% in various water depth ranges, wherein the proportion of the water in the typhoon rain and the Taihu lake is 55.48% when the water level is 5.2m in 2009; in 2005, the proportion of typhoon rain and Taihu lake water level was 63.95% at 5.2 m. In the water depth range of 0.1-0.2m, the proportion of various working conditions is 12.30% -14.56%, wherein the proportion of the water depth in the range is the minimum under the working condition that the water level of the typhoon rain and the Taihu lake generated in 2009 is 5.2 m.
In the submerged water depth range of 0.2-0.5m, the proportion of various working conditions is between 14.16-17.59%, wherein the proportion of the water depth in the range is the minimum under the working conditions that the water level of the Tai lake and the typhoon rain are 4.65m in 2005. In the submerged water depth range of 0.5m-1.0m, the proportion of the water in the range is 6.88% -9.31% under various working conditions, and the proportion of the water in the range is the minimum under the working conditions that the water level of typhoon and rain and Taihu lake is 5.2m in 2005.
In the submerged water depth range of 1.0m-2.0m, the proportion of the submerged water in various working conditions is 2.07% -2.86%, wherein the proportion of the submerged water in the working conditions of typhoon rain and Taihu lake water level of 5.20m in 2005 is the minimum. In the water depth range of more than 2.0m, the proportion of each working condition is close, and is about 0.25 percent.
The depth of the lake Taihu submerged water under typical conditions is shown in FIGS. 2-5.
(2) Analysis of flooding conditions of large and medium cities in Taihu river basin under typical working conditions
The submergence depth of each large and medium city of the Taihu lake basin under the typical working condition is shown in the table 2.
TABLE 2
From the submerged water depth table 2 of large and medium cities in the Taihu river basin, the water level of the Shanghai city in the Taihu lake is 4.65m and 5.20m, the submerged water depth of the Shanghai city is 0.2-0.5m when the Taihu lake encounters typhoon and rain in 2009, and the submerged water depth is 0.1-0.2m when the Shanghai city encounters typhoon and rain in 2005, which is mainly related to the rainfall characteristics of the area.
Under the conditions of various initial water levels of Taihu lake and typhoon and rain, the submerged water depth in Hangzhou city is smaller and less than 0.1m, and mainly because Hangzhou is positioned at the edge of the river of Qiantang pond, the drainage is relatively quick.
The initial water levels of Suzhou city in various Tai lakes are subjected to different typhoons and rains, the submerged water depth is larger and is 0.2-0.5m, and the submerged water depth is mainly related to the geographical position of the Suzhou city, which is near the Tai lake and has a lower topography.
Compared with other cities, lake cities have large submerged water depth under various working conditions, and under the condition of suffering from typhoon and rain in 2005 and 2009, the submerged water depth is 0.5-1.0 m, which is mainly related to the geographical position and rainfall characteristics.
The submergence depth of the two cities of Jiaxing and Changzhou under various working conditions is smaller and almost smaller than 0.1m, which is mainly related to the geographic positions of the two cities.
The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, various modifications and decorations can be made without departing from the principle of the present invention, and these modifications and decorations should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (4)
1. A flood risk simulation method under extreme environments of rainstorm, high water level and high tide level is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, collecting target data in a target area, and performing compilation processing according to the HOHY2 model data format requirement to lay a data foundation for model construction and verification;
s2, constructing a target area one-dimensional flood risk simulation model by using the target data and adopting an HOHY2 model;
s3, combining different typical working conditions, performing numerical simulation on the submergence depth of the target area and the urban submergence depth by using the constructed one-dimensional flood risk simulation model to obtain a submergence depth map of the target area, and determining a high-risk area of flood disasters by combining the history and actual conditions of the area;
the step S2 of constructing the one-dimensional flood risk simulation model of the target area includes the following steps:
1) constructing a target area river network topological structure by using an HOHY2 model, taking a polygonal area defined by river channels as an overflow unit, enabling the overflowing water of the river channels to enter the overflow unit, analyzing the data of DEM in the overflow unit to obtain a water level-volume curve relation, and further obtaining the water level in the overflow unit through the total water amount;
2) adding RAINFALL boundaries into RAINFALL partitions of the whole target area, respectively inputting net rain-duration sequences of the RAINFALL partitions, calculating through confluence to obtain a flow rate, connecting the flow rate to an overflow unit through side inflow of a flooding area unit, connecting the overflow unit with a river channel section or JUNCTION through an ABSTRACTION unit, and reflecting a drainage effect through a scheduling rule of the ABSTRACTION unit;
analyzing the DEM data of the drainage basin by using a GIS to obtain a water level-reservoir capacity relation curve of the water storage unit of the flooding area, adding rainfall boundaries according to rainfall partitions of a target area, and respectively connecting the rainfall boundaries with the water storage unit of the flooding area to accommodate rainfall runoff yield; exchanging water quantity between the flood area water storage unit and the river network through a drainage generalization and overflow unit so as to describe the phenomena of artificial drainage, river overflow and breach;
the target data comprises terrain data, water level flow, typhoon and rain, historical tide level data, perennial average tide level, river network data and lake initial water level data.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein in step S2, a one-dimensional flood risk simulation model of the target area is constructed by using a HOHY2 model according to the river network structure, river section and digital terrain elevation data of the target area.
3. The method for simulating the flood risk under the extreme environment of the rainstorm high water level and the high tide level according to claim 1, wherein in step S2, after a one-dimensional flood risk simulation model of the target area is constructed, a typical-time historical flood is selected to carry out calibration verification on the constructed one-dimensional flood risk simulation model, and the calculation parameters are reasonably adjusted by comparing and analyzing the measured value and the simulated value of the water level or the flow until the simulation result meets the precision requirement.
4. A flood risk simulation method in a rainstorm high water level high tide level extreme environment according to claim 1, wherein different typical conditions are obtained by different combinations according to the selection of typical high water level, typhoon and high tide level.
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