CN113505546A - Flood risk prediction system - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a flood risk prediction system, which provides boundary conditions according to real-time design of upstream and downstream control stations of a river channel, establishes a hydraulic model to calculate and obtain the water levels of all characteristic sections of different working conditions at different moments in a flow domain, encrypts the water levels of the sections to generate fixed interval water level values, and obtains the on-way water level of a gridded river channel; similarly generating corresponding small sections with fixed intervals on the dikes on the two banks of the river, and endowing the production top elevation to each small section of dike according to the measurement data; and comparing the water level along the way with the elevation of the subsection embankment top of the flood control protection area for calculation, and the flood control protection area with the subsection embankment top elevation lower than the water level along the way can be embanked. Meanwhile, classifying and setting the elevation difference between the top of the dike and the water level as early warning threshold values of different levels; and analyzing and calculating the flooding condition of the flood control protection area of the flooding (bursting) dike.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of flood prevention and control, in particular to a flood risk prediction system.
Background
Since the 20 th century, with the change of climate, the global temperature of the world has a tendency to rise remarkably, and the frequency of extreme hydrometeorological events has also increased. Human activities cause significant changes in the watershed environment, such as: the impervious area is obviously increased along with the expansion of cities and towns, and the production confluence process is accelerated; the change of the ranges of grassland, forest land and cultivated land changes the production convergence capacity in the drainage basin; the construction of a large number of hydraulic engineering influences the confluence process of a basin.
The existing method for predicting the flood submerging condition needs a complex two-dimensional hydraulic model and considers the elevation of a ground water-blocking building to simulate the flood flowing condition so as to calculate the submerging range and the submerging depth of the flood.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a flood risk prediction system which can predict a flood submerging range and submerging water depth according to a station real-time water level.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the technical scheme that: a flood risk prediction system comprises a river network generalized graph drawing module, a surrounding area division module, an important facility graph layer manufacturing module, a dike elevation graph layer drawing module, an on-way water level information calculation module and a submerged water depth graph drawing module;
the river network generalized diagram drawing module is used for drawing to obtain a river network generalized diagram according to river basin information, wherein the river basin information comprises river basin landforms, water system structures and water flow trends, and the river network generalized diagram reflects the outline of a river;
the fence area dividing module is used for dividing a plurality of fence areas around the river network generalized diagram, and the fence areas are adjacent to the embankment project;
the important facility map layer manufacturing module acquires elevation data of infrastructure in the fence area as basic elevation information, and gridds the basic elevation information to obtain basic elevation grid information;
the embankment elevation map layer drawing module is used for obtaining elevation measurement data of embankment engineering measured at intervals of set distance within the river network generalized map as embankment elevation information, and informationizing the embankment elevation grid to obtain embankment elevation grid information;
the on-way water level information calculation module is used for calculating on-way river cross section water levels of different working conditions at different moments in a flow area through a river network water level calculation strategy, and gridding the on-way river cross section water levels to obtain water level grid information, wherein the grid size of each piece of water level grid information is the same as that of each piece of embankment elevation grid information;
if the water level grid information is less than or equal to the embankment elevation grid information at the same geographic position, the submerged water depth map drawing module does not mark submerged information in the corresponding fence area, if the water level grid information is greater than the embankment elevation grid information at the same geographic position, the basic elevation grid information and the water level grid information in the corresponding fence area are compared, and if the basic elevation grid information is greater than or equal to the water level grid information, the submerged information is not marked in the corresponding area; if the basic elevation grid information is smaller than the water level grid information, marking inundation information in the corresponding area and determining inundation depth information according to the difference value of the basic elevation grid information and the water level grid information.
Preferably, the river network water level calculation strategy comprises the steps of obtaining real-time water rain data and river channel parameter data, wherein the real-time water rain data reflects a station water level or a flow process, providing initial boundary conditions of a model, the river channel parameter data comprises a flow coefficient, a main trough roughness, a left bank roughness, a right bank roughness, a river center continent roughness, local water head loss and section spacing, obtaining an upper boundary river channel section water level and a lower boundary river channel section water level according to the real-time water rain data, dividing the upper boundary section and the lower boundary section into a plurality of along-the-way sections, obtaining river channel inner section parameters according to the river channel parameter data, inputting the lower boundary river channel section water level, the river channel inner section parameters and the flow of the upper boundary river channel section into a hydraulics model to obtain a along-the-way section adjacent to the lower boundary river channel section water level as the along-the river channel section water level, inputting the water level of the on-way section as a new lower boundary river channel section water level into a hydraulics model to obtain the water level of the on-way section adjacent to the new lower boundary river channel section water level as a new on-way river channel section water level until the new on-way river channel section corresponds to the upper boundary river channel section, taking the calculated new on-way section water level as a calculated value of the upper boundary river channel section, and if the difference value between the water level of the upper boundary river channel section and the calculated value of the upper boundary river channel section is smaller than a preset water level difference threshold value, outputting the water level of the riverway cross section along the way, if the difference value between the water level of the riverway cross section at the upper boundary and the calculated value of the riverway cross section at the upper boundary is more than or equal to a preset water level difference value threshold, modifying the section flow of the upper boundary river channel until the difference between the section water level of the upper boundary river channel and the section calculation value of the upper boundary river channel is smaller than a preset water level difference threshold value: the hydraulic model is as follows:
wherein Z is the water level of the riverway cross section along the way; z2The lower boundary water level of the cross section of the river channel; xi is the local resistance coefficient of the river reach; alpha is a kinetic energy correction coefficient; g is the acceleration of gravity; v2The cross-sectional flow velocity of the lower boundary river channel; v1The flow velocity of the cross section of the riverway along the way is adopted; q is the flow of the upper boundary river channel section; k is a flow modulus; delta S is the distance between the lower boundary river channel section and the along-the-way river channel sectionAnd (5) separating.
Preferably, in the important facility map layer making module, elevation data of feature points of the infrastructure in the fence area is acquired as the basic elevation information.
Preferably, in the embankment elevation map layer drawing module, according to the measured elevation measurement data of the embankment engineering, fixed-length embankment sections and corresponding elevation data are generated by interpolation at equal intervals along embankment lines and serve as the embankment elevation information, the section water level is encrypted to generate water level values at fixed intervals and serve as the section water level of the riverway along the journey, and the section water level of the riverway along the journey corresponds to the geographical position of the embankment elevation information.
Preferably, the flood risk prediction system further comprises a inundation area calculation module, which counts the number of water level information grids of the area marked with inundation information to obtain inundation area, and when the inundation range does not cover the whole water level grid information, if the inundation range covers an area larger than half of the area of a single water level grid information, the inundation range is considered to relate to the whole water level grid information.
Preferably, the flood risk prediction system further comprises an economic loss estimation module, wherein the bounding area is divided into a plurality of township areas according to township boundary lines, the township areas are divided into a plurality of economic value areas according to building boundaries or field boundaries, each economic value area has corresponding economic value information, and the economic loss value of the area marked with the inundation information is calculated according to the inundation area and the economic value information.
Preferably, in the submerged water depth map drawing module, the submerged water depth information is classified, and the corresponding marks of submerged water depth information of different levels have different colors.
Preferably, the flood risk prediction system further comprises a water level database, wherein the water level database stores measured water level information of different sections at different flow rates in a drainage basin,
in the on-way water level information calculation module, the data in the water level database is trained by adopting a river network water level calculation strategy to obtain a hydraulics model corresponding to the watershed.
Preferably, the hydraulics model is retrained once every 1-2 years or after the cross section of the river bed of the corresponding river basin changes.
Preferably, different hydraulics models are trained according to different flood frequencies.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. the method comprises the steps of obtaining a lower boundary river channel section water level, an upper boundary river channel section water level and river channel inner section parameters according to real-time water rain data and river channel parameter data which are actually measured at different moments and different spatial positions, inputting the lower boundary river channel section water level, the river channel inner section parameters and the flow of the upper boundary river channel section into a hydraulics model to obtain an on-way river channel section water level and an upper boundary river channel section water level, and obtaining the on-way river channel section water level;
2. and taking the elevation measurement data of the embankment project measured at intervals of set distance as the elevation information of the embankment, and obtaining elevation data of different positions of the embankment project. The discrete data points are formed into a continuous image layer by gridding a plurality of information of riverway section water level and embankment elevation along the way respectively. And superposing the formed water level image layer and the embankment engineering elevation image layer to quickly obtain an area with the water level of the whole flow area higher than that of the embankment engineering. The program design is beneficial to quickly identifying the overflow part of the embankment project, the calculated amount is very small, and the calculation efficiency is high;
3. the existing method for predicting the flood submerging condition needs to calculate the flood overflowing amount and the elevation data of the ground and the building at the overflowing position, simulate the flood flowing condition and further calculate the submerging range and the submerging depth of the flood. According to the invention, the enclosure area with a smaller area is arranged, and when flood overflows over the embankment project, the water level at that time is the water level which can be reached by the enclosure area in the future (assuming that the water quantity is always in an overflowing state in a future period until the water level in the enclosure area reaches the water level in the flowing area), so that the water level of the area related to the flood can be obtained without calculating the overflowing water quantity. And the submerging range and the submerging water depth of the containment area can be known by comparing the water level with the elevation data of the buildings in the containment area.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a flood risk prediction system;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of the detailed operation of the flood risk prediction system;
fig. 3 is a flow chart of a flood risk prediction system.
The reference numerals are explained below: 010. a river network generalized graph drawing module; 020. dividing the area of the enclosure into modules; 030. an important facility map layer manufacturing module; 040. drawing a dike elevation map layer; 050. an on-way water level information calculation module; 060. a submerged water depth map drawing module; 070. a submerged area calculation module; 080. and the economic loss estimation module.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.
Example 1:
as shown in fig. 1, a flood risk prediction system includes a river network generalized graph drawing module 010, a fence area dividing module 020, an important facility map layer making module 030, a embankment elevation map layer drawing module 040, an on-way water level information calculating module 050, and a submerged water depth graph drawing module 060;
the river network generalized diagram drawing module 010 draws a river network generalized diagram according to river basin information, wherein the river basin information comprises river basin landforms, water system structures and water flow trends, and the river network generalized diagram reflects the outline of a river;
the enclosed slice area dividing module 020 is used for dividing a plurality of enclosed slice areas around the river network generalized diagram, and the enclosed slice areas are adjacent to the embankment project;
as shown in fig. 1 and 2, the important facility map layer making module 030 acquires elevation data of infrastructure in the fence area as basic elevation information, and performs meshing on the basic elevation information to obtain basic elevation mesh information; acquiring elevation data of characteristic points of infrastructure in the enclosed area as basic elevation information, wherein the measured data quantity is small and the measured data is representative by the method for determining the elevation data;
the embankment elevation map layer drawing module 040 acquires elevation measurement data of the embankment project measured at intervals of a set distance within the river network generalized map as embankment elevation information, and performs information on the embankment elevation grid to obtain embankment elevation grid information;
the on-way water level information calculation module 050 calculates and obtains on-way river cross section water levels of different working conditions at different moments in a flow domain through a river network water level calculation strategy, and gridds the on-way river cross section water levels to obtain water level grid information, wherein the grid size of each piece of water level grid information is the same as that of each piece of embankment elevation grid information;
as shown in fig. 3, the river network water level calculation strategy includes obtaining real-time rain data and river channel parameter data, the real-time rain data reflecting station water level or flow process and providing initial boundary conditions of the model, the river channel parameter data including flow coefficient, main channel roughness, left bank roughness, right bank roughness, center of the river roughness, local head loss and section spacing, obtaining upper boundary river channel section water level and lower boundary river channel section water level according to the real-time rain data, dividing the upper boundary section and the lower boundary section into a plurality of along-the-way sections, obtaining river channel inner section parameters according to the river channel parameter data, inputting the lower boundary river channel section water level, the river channel inner section parameters and the flow of the upper boundary river channel section into a hydraulic model to obtain a along-the-way section water level adjacent to the lower boundary river channel water level section as a along-the river channel section, inputting the water level of the on-way section as a new lower boundary river channel section water level into a hydraulics model to obtain the water level of the on-way section adjacent to the new lower boundary river channel section water level as a new on-way river channel section water level until the new on-way river channel section corresponds to the upper boundary river channel section, taking the calculated new on-way section water level as a calculated value of the upper boundary river channel section, and if the difference value between the water level of the upper boundary river channel section and the calculated value of the upper boundary river channel section is smaller than a preset water level difference threshold value, outputting the water level of the riverway cross section along the way, if the difference value between the water level of the riverway cross section at the upper boundary and the calculated value of the riverway cross section at the upper boundary is more than or equal to a preset water level difference value threshold, modifying the section flow of the upper boundary river channel until the difference between the section water level of the upper boundary river channel and the section calculation value of the upper boundary river channel is smaller than a preset water level difference threshold value: the hydraulic model is as follows:
wherein Z is the water level of the riverway cross section along the way; z2The lower boundary water level of the cross section of the river channel; xi is the local resistance coefficient of the river reach; alpha is a kinetic energy correction coefficient, and the kinetic energy correction coefficient is related to the nonuniformity of flow velocity distribution on the section; g is the acceleration of gravity; v2The cross-sectional flow velocity of the lower boundary river channel; v1The flow velocity of the cross section of the riverway along the way is adopted; q is the flow of the upper boundary river channel section; k is a flow modulus; and delta S is the distance between the lower boundary river channel section and the along-way river channel section.
In the embankment elevation map layer drawing module 040, according to the measured elevation measurement data of the embankment project, fixed-length embankment segments and corresponding elevation data are generated by interpolation at equal intervals along embankment lines and serve as the embankment elevation information, the section water level is encrypted to generate water level values at fixed intervals and serve as the section water level of the riverway along the way, and the section water level of the riverway along the way corresponds to the geographical position of the embankment elevation information. The method for obtaining the corresponding elevation data of the equally-spaced divided dyke sections comprises the following steps: simulating an upper edge curve of the embankment project according to the measured elevation measurement data of the embankment project, and acquiring a larger amount of elevation data of the embankment project as the elevation information of the embankment according to the upper edge curve of the embankment project. The upper surface of the dam project is arranged in a winding mode with a certain radian, and curve fitting is carried out according to actually measured elevation data of a plurality of measuring points arranged on the dam project. Because the data volume is large and the bending degree area of the embankment project is smooth, the curve obtained by fitting is very close to the actual radian of the upper surface of the embankment project. After the fitted curve is obtained, the elevation data of the embankment project which is multiplied by the original number can be obtained, and the graph layer information obtained after gridding is more accurate;
in the on-way water level information calculation module 050, the data in the water level database is trained by adopting a river network water level calculation strategy to obtain a hydraulic model corresponding to the basin. The distribution conditions of the river bed sections of each river basin are different, the hydraulic model considers the water levels, the flow rates, the flow coefficients, the main trough roughness, the left bank roughness, the right bank roughness, the Jiangxinzhou roughness, the local head loss and the section intervals of the sections at different moments and different spatial positions to calculate the water levels, but under the same conditions, the instantaneous water levels of the rushing rivers are different under the condition of different river bed sections (particularly turbulent river water under a flood state, the river surface can arouse larger wave flowers), and whether the water flow can overflow over the embankment project is the instantaneous water levels rather than the water levels under a stable state, so that the water level data measured by the hydraulic model trained by data in the water level database are more accurate.
And retraining the hydraulics model once every 1-2 years or after the section of the riverbed of the corresponding watershed changes. The section condition of the riverbed does not change excessively under the artificial condition, so that the hydraulics model is retrained every 1-2 years. And training different hydraulic models according to different flood frequencies. Under different flood frequencies, the influence degree of the riverbed on the instantaneous water level is different, the training is carried out according to the situation, and the obtained hydraulics model is more mature.
The submerged water depth map drawing module 060 corresponds to that submerged information is not marked in the fence area if the water level grid information is less than or equal to the dike elevation grid information at the same geographical position, compares the basic elevation grid information and the water level grid information in the corresponding fence area if the water level grid information is greater than the dike elevation grid information at the same geographical position, and does not mark submerged information in the corresponding area if the basic elevation grid information is greater than or equal to the water level grid information; if the basic elevation grid information is smaller than the water level grid information, marking inundation information in the corresponding area and determining inundation depth information according to the difference value of the basic elevation grid information and the water level grid information. The discrete data points are formed into a continuous image layer by gridding a plurality of information of riverway section water level and embankment elevation along the way respectively. And superposing the formed water level image layer and the embankment engineering elevation image layer to quickly obtain an area with the water level of the whole flow area higher than that of the embankment engineering. The program design is beneficial to quickly identifying the overflow part of the embankment project, and the calculated amount is small.
The existing method for predicting the flood submerging condition needs to calculate the flood overflowing amount and the elevation data of the ground and the building at the overflowing position, simulate the flood flowing condition and further calculate the submerging range and the submerging depth of the flood. According to the invention, the enclosure area with a smaller area is arranged, and when flood overflows over the embankment project, the water level at that time is the water level which can be reached by the enclosure area in the future (assuming that the water quantity is always in an overflowing state in a future period until the water level in the enclosure area reaches the water level in the flowing area), so that the water level of the area related to the flood can be obtained without calculating the overflowing water quantity. And the submerging range and the submerging water depth of the containment area can be known by comparing the water level with the elevation data of the buildings in the containment area.
And grading the submerging water depth information, wherein the corresponding marks of the submerging water depth information of different grades are different in color. The color markings can present the submergence range and submergence depth in a very intuitive form.
The flood risk prediction system further comprises a inundation area calculation module 070, which counts the number of water level information grids of the area marked with inundation information to obtain the inundation area. And when the submerging range does not cover the whole water level grid information, if the submerging range covers an area which is larger than half of the area of the single water level grid information, the submerging range is considered to relate to the whole water level grid information. The submergence range of the containment area can be predicted through a very simple calculation mode and a very small calculation amount, and flood condition early warning can be rapidly carried out on the containment area.
Flood risk prediction system still includes economic loss estimation module 080, will the surrounding area is divided into a plurality of township districts according to the villages and towns demarcation line, will the villages and towns are gone to divide into a plurality of economic value district according to building boundary or field boundary, and each economic value district has corresponding economic value information, according to inundate area with the economic value information calculation has marked the economic loss value in the region of inundating the information. The above programming allows for a fast estimation of the economic losses due to flooding.
While one embodiment of the present invention has been described in detail, the description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and should not be taken as limiting the scope of the invention. All equivalent changes and modifications made within the scope of the present invention shall fall within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A flood risk prediction system is characterized by comprising a river network generalized graph drawing module (010), a fence area dividing module (020), an important facility graph layer making module (030), a dike elevation graph layer drawing module (040), an on-way water level information calculating module (050) and a submerged water depth graph drawing module (060);
the river network generalized graph drawing module (010) is used for drawing a river network generalized graph according to river basin information, wherein the river basin information comprises river basin landforms, water system structures and water flow trends, and the river network generalized graph reflects the outline of a river;
the enclosed slice division module (020) is used for dividing a plurality of enclosed slice areas around the river network generalized diagram, and the enclosed slice areas are adjacent to the embankment project;
the important facility map layer manufacturing module (030) acquires elevation data of infrastructure in the fence area as basic elevation information, and gridds the basic elevation information to obtain basic elevation grid information;
the embankment elevation map layer drawing module (040) is used for obtaining elevation measurement data of embankment engineering measured at intervals of set distance within the river network generalized map as embankment elevation information, and performing information on the embankment elevation grids to obtain embankment elevation grid information;
the on-way water level information calculation module (050) calculates and obtains on-way river cross section water levels of different working conditions at different moments in a flow domain through a river network water level calculation strategy, and gridds the on-way river cross section water levels to obtain water level grid information, wherein the grid size of each piece of water level grid information is the same as that of each piece of embankment elevation grid information;
the submerged water depth map drawing module (060) is configured to not mark submerged information in the corresponding fence area if the water level grid information is less than or equal to the dike elevation grid information at the same geographical position, compare the basic elevation grid information and the water level grid information in the corresponding fence area if the water level grid information is greater than the dike elevation grid information at the same geographical position, and not mark submerged information in the corresponding area if the basic elevation grid information is greater than or equal to the water level grid information; if the basic elevation grid information is smaller than the water level grid information, marking inundation information in the corresponding area and determining inundation depth information according to the difference value of the basic elevation grid information and the water level grid information.
2. The flood risk prediction system according to claim 1, wherein the river network water level calculation strategy comprises obtaining real-time rain data and channel parameter data, the real-time rain data reflecting station water level or flow process and providing initial boundary conditions of a model, the channel parameter data comprising flow coefficient, main trough roughness, left bank roughness, right bank roughness, continental rise roughness, local head loss and section spacing, obtaining upper boundary channel section water level and lower boundary channel section water level according to the real-time rain data, dividing the upper boundary section and the lower boundary section into a plurality of on-way sections, obtaining channel inside section parameters according to the channel parameter data, inputting the lower boundary channel section water level, the channel inside section parameters and the flow of the upper boundary channel section into a hydraulic model to obtain an on-way section adjacent to the lower boundary channel section water level as an on-way channel section, inputting the water level of the on-way section as a new lower boundary river channel section water level into a hydraulics model to obtain the water level of the on-way section adjacent to the new lower boundary river channel section water level as a new on-way river channel section water level until the new on-way river channel section corresponds to the upper boundary river channel section, taking the calculated new on-way section water level as a calculated value of the upper boundary river channel section, and if the difference value between the water level of the upper boundary river channel section and the calculated value of the upper boundary river channel section is smaller than a preset water level difference threshold value, outputting the water level of the riverway cross section along the way, if the difference value between the water level of the riverway cross section at the upper boundary and the calculated value of the riverway cross section at the upper boundary is more than or equal to a preset water level difference value threshold, modifying the section flow of the upper boundary river channel until the difference between the section water level of the upper boundary river channel and the section calculation value of the upper boundary river channel is smaller than a preset water level difference threshold value: the hydraulic model is as follows:
wherein Z is the water level of the riverway cross section along the way; z2The lower boundary water level of the cross section of the river channel; xi is the local resistance coefficient of the river reach; alpha is a kinetic energy correction coefficient; g is the acceleration of gravity; v2The cross-sectional flow velocity of the lower boundary river channel; v1The flow velocity of the cross section of the riverway along the way is adopted; q is the flow of the upper boundary river channel section; k is a flow modulus; and delta S is the distance between the lower boundary river channel section and the along-way river channel section.
3. The flood risk prediction system according to claim 1, wherein in the infrastructure map layer creation module (030), elevation data of feature points of the infrastructure in the containment area is acquired as the base elevation information.
4. A flood risk prediction system according to claim 1, wherein in the embankment elevation map layer drawing module (040), according to the measured elevation measurement data of the embankment project, fixed length embankment segments and corresponding elevation data are generated by interpolation at equal intervals along embankment lines as the embankment elevation information, the section water level is encrypted to generate water level values at fixed intervals as the section water level of the riverway along the way, and the section water level of the riverway along the way corresponds to the geographical position of the embankment elevation information.
5. The flood risk prediction system according to claim 1, further comprising a inundation area calculation module (070) for counting the number of water level information grids of the area marked with inundation information to obtain inundation area, wherein when the inundation range does not cover the whole water level grid information, the inundation range is considered to relate to the whole water level grid information if the inundation range covers more than half of the information area of a single water level grid.
6. The flood risk prediction system according to claim 5, further comprising an economic loss estimation module (080) for dividing the containment area into township areas according to township boundaries, dividing the township areas into economic value areas according to building boundaries or field boundaries, each of the economic value areas having corresponding economic value information, and calculating an economic loss value of an area marked with flooding information according to the flooding area and the economic value information.
7. The flood risk prediction system according to claim 1, wherein said submergence depth information is graded in said submergence depth mapping module (060), wherein the colors of the markers corresponding to submergence depth information of different grades are different.
8. The flood risk prediction system according to claim 1, further comprising a water level database, wherein the water level database stores measured water level information of different sections at different flow rates in a drainage basin,
and in the on-way water level information calculation module (050), training the data in the water level database by adopting a river network water level calculation strategy to obtain a hydraulics model corresponding to the watershed.
9. A flood risk prediction system according to claim 8, wherein the hydraulics model is retrained every 1-2 years or after a change in the bed profile of the corresponding watershed.
10. A flood risk prediction system according to claim 8, wherein different hydraulics models are trained according to different flood frequencies.
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