KR101904278B1

KR101904278B1 - Method for decline curve analysis according to cumulative production incline rate in unconventional gas field

Info

Publication number: KR101904278B1
Application number: KR1020160113642A
Authority: KR
Inventors: 권순일; 한동권
Original assignee: 동아대학교 산학협력단
Priority date: 2016-09-05
Filing date: 2016-09-05
Publication date: 2018-10-04
Also published as: KR20180026842A; WO2018044133A1

Abstract

The present invention relates to a method for selecting a decay curve method in predicting ultimate yield and cumulative production in a non-traditional gas field. More particularly, the present invention relates to a method for estimating productivity and productivity, And a method for selecting a decay curve method using the cumulative production increase rate index in a non-traditional gas field so that the decay curve method can be used.
The method of selecting the decay curve method according to the cumulative production increase rate index in the non-traditional gas field according to the present invention includes: a data collection step of acquiring data from actual production data through daily production output data; Calculating an accumulated production increase rate index using the data acquired in the data collection step; Selecting a decay curve method based on a value calculated from the cumulative output increase rate index; And estimating an accumulated production amount and an ultimate amount of non-traditional gas field by using the selected decay curve method.

Description

A method for selecting a decay curve method according to the cumulative production increase rate index in a non-traditional gas field is as follows:

The present invention relates to a method for selecting a decay curve method in predicting ultimate yield and cumulative production in a non-traditional gas field. More particularly, the present invention relates to a method for estimating productivity and productivity, And a method for selecting a decay curve method using the cumulative production increase rate index in a non-traditional gas field so that the decay curve method can be used.

Shale gas has been actively produced due to recent economic development due to the development of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technology, and commercial production is being conducted mainly in North America where pipeline and natural gas infrastructures are developed. Generally, reserves estimation and productivity forecasts for production oil and gas fields are conducted through production data analysis techniques and reservoir simulation. Dual production data analysis methods are divided into production transition flow analysis and decline curve analysis (DCA) and material balance method. The dual decay curve method is widely used because it can estimate the production and recoverable reserves (EAR) using a simple program in the field by predicting future production behavior using only time and production volume.

However, in the case of the shale gas definition at the beginning of the production, the decline trend of the production data depends on the flow characteristics. Generally, the decay rate index is used to select the decay curve analysis, but it is difficult to select a constant decay rate because the actual field data is highly volatile.

Prior art techniques for predicting the ultimate yield and cumulative yield in the oil field are also found in U.S. Patent Nos. US 2015-0331976, U.S. Patent Nos. US 2013-0346040 and U.S. Patent No. US 2014-0136111.

However, in the past, the decay curve method has been used to estimate the final yield and cumulative production rate, and this index has been used for the estimation of the volatility And the decay rate is not constant, the conventional decay curve analysis method has a limitation in selecting variables according to the judgment of the engineer (expert), and in addition, there is a disadvantage that the uncertainty factor increases accordingly.

As described above, in the case of non-traditional gas fields, when the decay curve method is used in forecasting the ultimate yield amount and cumulative production rate, volatility occurs due to oil well maintenance or production discontinuation at the actual production site, In order to solve the problems of the conventional methods of analyzing the production decline curve method in which the analysis is performed due to the disadvantage that the judgment of the engineer (expert) must be involved in carrying out the analysis, it is necessary, for example, It is desirable to provide a new decay curve analysis method which is composed of production amount and time data without much data such as completed data. However, there are no indexes or methods that satisfy all these requirements yet.

Therefore, it is necessary to develop a new index that can be applied irrespective of the properties of the reservoir and the conditions of the completion of the oil well. The present invention is based on the use of the cumulative production rate index, And the method of determining suitable decay curve analysis method according to the tendency of declining production by analyzing the simulation data of the shale gas well and the field data.

US Patent Publication No. US 2015-0331976 U.S. Patent Publication No. US 2013-0346040 U.S. Patent Publication No. US 2014-0136111

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION The present invention has been made in order to solve the above problems, and it is an object of the present invention to provide a method for estimating future productivity such as cumulative production amount or ultimate yield amount in a non-traditional gas field by using the decay curves method, In addition to the fact that there is a problem that the productivity forecasting error is large, when the decay curve method is used, the decay rate is not constant due to volatility due to oil well maintenance or production discontinuation at the actual production site In order to solve the problem that the engineer's judgment should be involved in the decay curves method, the decay curve method according to the cumulative production increase rate index And to provide a method of predicting productivity through methods.

Another object of the present invention is to provide a method for predicting productivity by using a decay curve method for estimating a productivity, In order to solve the problem of selecting the decay curve method and the productivity prediction methods in the conventional non-conventional gas field having the disadvantages required by the prior art, only the production data and the time data acquired from the field are used, The method of selecting the decay curve method using the cumulative production increase rate index in the non-traditional gas field, which is constructed so as to be able to substitute for the production decay rate index to be intervened regardless of the properties of the reservoir and the completion data of the oil well .

It is a further object of the present invention to provide a method and apparatus for estimating the production rate of a product by using an indicator of cumulative production increase rate which can be applied regardless of the properties of the reservoir and the finished oil well as described above, In order to provide a method of predicting productivity through the method of selecting the decay curve method according to the cumulative production increase rate index in estimating the ultimate yield and cumulative production amount in the non-traditional gas field instead of the interrupted production decline rate.

It is to be understood that both the foregoing general description and the following detailed description are exemplary and explanatory and are not restrictive of the invention as set forth in the accompanying drawings. It will be possible.

The method of selecting the decay curve method according to the cumulative production increase rate index in the non-traditional gas field according to the present invention includes: a data collection step of acquiring data from actual production data through daily production output data; Calculating an accumulated production increase rate index using the data acquired in the data collection step; Selecting a decay curve method based on a value calculated from the cumulative output increase rate index; And estimating an accumulated production amount and an ultimate amount of non-traditional gas field by using the selected decay curve method.

According to the solution of the above problems, the present invention provides a method for predicting non-traditional gas field productivity using the cumulative production rate index, which is configured to reduce the errors generated by using the existing Arps empirical equation, It is possible to solve the disadvantages of the selection method using the reservoir property data or the oil well completion method data, which is difficult to obtain in actual field and has high uncertainty, by using the method of selecting the production decay curve analysis method. The problem of choosing the decay curves method can be solved in calculating the ultimate yield amount and cumulative production amount of the conventional technology in which the judgment of the engineer (expert) is interrupted due to the fact that the volatility of the actual production data is not constant.

Also, according to the present invention, when the decay curve method is used in the prediction of the production amount as described above, the decay curve method is selected according to the properties of the reservoir and the completion condition of the oil well in the selection of the analysis method, And the system for selecting the decay curve method using the cumulative production increase rate index that can be analyzed only as production data over time in order to solve the problem of high uncertainty, and the method of selecting the decay curve method Can replace the rate of production decay rate, which requires the involvement of engineers (experts) in the analysis of the existing Arps decay curve method.

FIG. 1 is a flowchart showing a method of selecting a decay curve method according to an accumulated production amount increase rate index in a non-
Figure 2 compares the rate of production decay rate of field data and simulation data
Figure 3 compares cumulative production growth rate indicators of field data and simulation data
FIG. 4 is a simulation of productivity prediction prediction according to the tendency of shale gas definition production decline
FIG. 5 is a graph showing an analysis graph according to the cumulative production growth rate classification
Figure 6 compares the decay curves method when the cumulative yield increase rate is 0.5% in the Canadian A shale gas field.
Figure 7 compares the decay curves method when the cumulative yield increase rate is 0.25% in the Canadian A shale gas field.
FIG. 8 shows the comparison of the decay curve method when the cumulative yield increase rate is 0.5% in the US B shale gas field
FIG. 9 shows the comparison of the decay curve method when the cumulative yield increase rate is 0.25% in the US B shale gas field

The above and other objects, features and advantages of the present invention will be more apparent from the following detailed description taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, in which: FIG. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS The advantages and features of the present invention and the manner of achieving them will become apparent by reference to an embodiment which will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

Hereinafter, a method of selecting the decay curve method according to the cumulative production increase rate index in the non-traditional gas field will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.

First, the first step is a data collection step (S10). Specifically, it is the step of acquiring data and collecting data through the daily production data obtained from the actual site data over time.

Next, the second step is a step S20 of calculating the cumulative production amount increase rate index. Specifically, the step of calculating the cumulative production amount increase rate index using the data acquired in the data collecting step.

In shale gas wells, unlike general gas wells, production declines rapidly in the early stage of production and slows down in late stage of production. Therefore, it is necessary to apply the appropriate Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) according to the declining trend of production. Maley (1985) Kupchenko (2008) conducted a study using the rate of decay of production as a factor in the decline in production. In the case of shale and dense gas, the decline rate of late production was too small, Production was overestimated when applied. In order to improve this, we proposed a modified hyperbolic decay curve method that analyzes the decay index value by analyzing the decay rate index when the decay rate reaches a certain point using the decay rate limit index. Yu (2013) confirmed that the improved Duong method is the most accurate when the permeability is less than 0.001md, and that the YM-SEPD method simulates the most favorable yield of 0.1-0.001md reservoir. However, as shown in FIG. 2, the decay rate limit index may not be constant due to the occurrence of volatility due to the discontinuation of production due to oil well maintenance during the field data analysis. In case of permeability, Because of the high uncertainty of the data, it is not applicable.

Therefore, a quantitative and general index that can overcome the above problems is needed. In the present invention, the cumulative production growth rate index that can be applied regardless of the properties of the reservoir and the completion condition of the oil well is proposed in the following equation (1).

IG _p = cumulative output growth index

G _p (t _n ) = n cumulative yield value of time (day)

G _p (t _{n + 1} ) = n + 1 Cumulative yield value of hour (day)

The cumulative output growth rate index is advantageous in that it is easy to apply compared to the production decline rate because the volatility according to the production data is small and the decline tendency is constant. Also, as shown in FIG. 3, it is confirmed that the tendency is constant compared with the rate of production decline when the simulation data and the actual field data cumulative production increase rate graph are compared with each other.

Next, the third step is a step of selecting a decay curve method (S30). Specifically, the step of selecting the decay curve method is based on the value calculated from the cumulative output increase rate index. In the third step S30, when the cumulative output increase rate index is 0.5% or 0.25%, the Duong decay curve method is selected. In the third step S30, it is preferable to select the YM-SEPD decay curve method when the cumulative production amount increase rate index is 0.05% or less.

The decay curves method is one of the widely used productivity analysis techniques that can predict the future productivity based on the past production data simply by using the production data and calculating it as a graph of the production over time. Arps (1945) proposed an empirical formula that predicts future production trends by analyzing production histories using the proposed time, production volume, and cumulative production volume. In the case of traditional oil and gas fields, the decay index value is calculated by the exponential decay curve method (b = 0), hyperbolic decay curve method (0 <b <1), harmonic decay curve method (b = 1 ) Is used.

The decay curve method suitable for non-traditional gas fields is described below.

1) Superbolic Decline method (1 <b <4)

In general, the Hyperbolic equation of Arps shows the value of decay index between 0 and 1 in traditional gas wells. However, the hyperbolic decay curves show that the decay index value is more than 1 when the initial decay is small (Super Hyperbolic Decline: superbolic) behavior. Therefore, the prediction of future production trends using the superbolic method using the number of decays of hyperbolic decay curves in transient flow sections exceeding 1 or more is predicted in estimating the productivity of non-traditional gas reservoirs with very low permeability (Kupchenko et al. 2008). However, since the decaying index is between 0.5 and 1 in the flow region where the boundary effect flow occurs, it is necessary to perform the production forecast analysis by changing the decay index value according to the flow region, or to perform appropriate production forecast analysis for various scenarios.

2) Power Law Decay Curve Method (PLE method)

Ilk et al. (2008) analyzed the decay rate of non-hyperbolic decay in the declining gas field using the production history analysis. It is suggested that the cause of deviation from hyperbolic decay curve is due to the presence of transition flow data, which is a factor affecting production decay rate and decay index. Unlike the hyperbolic decay curve method, the rate of decay of the dense gas field is plotted in the form of a power law law that decays constantly for a long time. This is called the power law law decay curve method (PLE). The advantage of this method is that prediction of recoverable reserves and production data of reservoir dominated by hydrodynamic fracturing can be predicted in one equation regardless of flow region.

N is the time index in Equation 3, q _i is t = 0 is output when the, D _∞ is a production failure rate when producing decay rate of the infinite time D ₁ is t = 1 day D _i is D ₁ / n to be. In the early stage of production, the rate of decay of production was more consistent with the PLE method than with the hyperbolic decay curve until boundary effect flow occurred. However, the PLE method has the following disadvantages. First, there are four variables (n, q _i , D _∞ , D ₁ ) that must be adjusted to match with the production data. Second, it is difficult to determine the D _i variable. Third, the output changes sensitively with the adjustment of the time index n value in estimating the recoverable reserves. Finally, when D _∞ is wrongly selected in the initial production data, there is a large variation in the late production due to the variable adjustment.

3) Duong method

Lee and Wattenbarger (1996) show that the relationship between the yield and the cumulative yield of hydraulic reservoir reservoir is as follows: n = 0.5 for linear flow of infinite conduction fracture, and 0.25 for bilinear flow He said. Duong (2010) proposed a decay curve analysis method that takes into account the initial production trend and the late trend of unstimulated rocks in multi-stage hydraulic fracturing in shale and dense gas fields. The y-axis cumulative production rate and x-axis time are shown in the log-log graph. The variables a and m can be easily derived from the slope and slice values of a specific graph. The relationship between production and cumulative production Can be expressed by the following equation (7).

Yu et al. (2013) proposed a method for determining the parameters of the Duong decay curve method under various reservoir conditions where boundary influx flows occur. The linear relationship between the homogeneous multi-level hydrodynamic fracture hydrograph at various permeability (0.1 ~ 0.0001md) was obtained through the reservoir simulation model. The linear relationship between the permeability and the permeability (0.1 ~ 0.01md) And it is confirmed that the recoverable reserves are over predicted. When the permeability is low (0.001 ~ 0.0001md), the trend is straight and the production history is consistent and the recoverable reservoir error is low.

4) Yu Modified-Streched Exponential Production Decline (YM-SEPD)

Based on the exponential function, the production volume is represented by potential recycled quantity ( _p ) and t, n, and τ variables, which are the 10,000 Barnett shale gas wells. . Valko and Lee (2010) have improved the SEPD to be applicable to a wide range of dense and shale gas reservoirs. Potential recoveries and recoverable reserves in the SEPD formula are expressed by the following equations (8) to (9).

Recoverable reserves refer to the cumulative output when production data is based on the minimum economic output, which can be expressed in Equation (9) with initial production q ₀ , two variables n and τ. If it shows a _p and a cumulative production in the graph, and the slope of the line 1 can be drawn recoverable reserves from the value of the x-intercept. Yu (2013) used the SEPD method to predict the productivity of the Canadian compacted gas field. The analysis showed that when the slope of the straight line is 1, it deviates from the production history and makes a conservative prediction. Yu et al. (2013) proposed Yu Modified-SEPD (YM-SEPD), which is a modification of SEPD to solve the problem of SEPD decay curves that conservatively predict productivity. As shown in Equation (10), when the log-log graph shows Ln (q / q (t)) and t, the tendency of the straight line is derived, and n and τ can be derived through slope and intercept. The accuracy of the decay curve method was verified by simulation model and field data analysis that simulated multi - level hydraulic fracturing.

Next, the fourth step is a step (S40) of predicting the cumulative amount of production and the ultimate amount of the non-conductive gas field. Specifically, the step of estimating the cumulative production amount and the ultimate yield amount of the non-traditional gas field using the selected decay curve method.

As a result of estimating the productivity by applying the cumulative production growth rate index and the decay curve analysis method in the third step (S30), when the cumulative production increase rate is 0.25% or more, the Duong method is consistent with the production tendency and the recoverable reservoir error It was the smallest. The YM-SEPD method accurately simulates the production trend and the recoverable reservoir error is small when the cumulative production growth rate is below 0.05%.

In the present invention, the cumulative production amount and the ultimate yield amount prediction of the non-intersecting gas field can be recorded in a computer program, and can be simulated by the cumulative production amount of the non-traditional gas field of the computer program and the ultimate yield prediction system 100 . More specifically, the system 100 includes a data input unit 10 for acquiring daily production yield data from actual site data, collecting data (S10) and inputting and storing the data to the system 100, An index calculating unit 20 for calculating and storing an accumulated production amount increase rate index using the data obtained in step S10, and an accumulation amount increase rate index calculated by the calculating unit 20, Is 0.5% or 0.25%, and the YM-SEPD decay curve method is selected (S30) when the accumulated production amount increase rate index is 0.05% or less, And a predictor 40 for predicting the amount of money before the non-transitory singer (S40) using the decay curve method. Although the present invention has been simulated on the basis of MS-Excel, which is easy to access and easy to use, and can be programmed by a numerical analysis algorithm, it is possible to use any system that can be programmed with a numerical analysis algorithm Can be used. The system 100 further includes a storage unit for storing data confirmed by the data input unit 10, the index calculation unit 20, the index analysis unit 30, and the prediction unit 40. The data storage means may be a ROM (Read Only Memory), a RAM (Random Access Memory), a flash memory, an HDD (Hard Disk Drive), an SSD (Super Speed Disk), a removable disk -SD card) or the like can be used. The results of the simulation model analysis by the system 100 are described in detail below.

A. Simulation model

As shown in FIG. 4, in the present invention, a heterogeneous multi-level hydrodynamic fracture correction model was set up using a reservoir simulator to perform a productivity prediction analysis according to the tendency of production of shale gas. As shown in Table 1 below, the model has a horizontal length of 7,000 ft, a crushing stage of 20 stages, a crush length of at least 483 ft, a maximum of 1,129 ft, a reservoir thickness of 607 ft, a fracture spacing of 350 ft, And the permeability of the rocks is 0.0004 md.

Length in meters (ft) 7,000 The stage of crushing (stage) 20 Breaking length (ft) 483 (min.), 802 (mean), 1,129 (max) Reservoir Thickness (ft) 607 Breaking interval (ft) 350 Crush Transmittance (md) 0.7 Transmittance (md) 0.0004

The production data used for the analysis is about 25 years for the total production period and 7.79bcf for the recoverable reserves considering the minimum economic output of 300 Mscf / day. As shown in FIG. 5 (a), as a result of the production history analysis, the transitional flow period is 5.5 years, and the boundary influential flow has appeared since this point.

In addition, as shown in the following Table 2, 8 cumulative production growth rate values are selected from the production data calculated through the simulation, and productivity is predicted from Duong, Superbolic, PLE, and YM-SEPD from that point and compared with simulation results Sensitivity analysis was performed. Table 2 below shows the results of the calculation of the ultimate yield value and the simulation data compared to the cumulative production increase rate index.

0.5%
120day
(EUR, Bcf) 0.25%
230day
(EUR, Bcf) 0.15%
375day
(EUR, Bcf) 0.1%
550day
(EUR, Bcf) 0.075%
730day
(EUR, Bcf) 0.05%
1100day
(EUR, Bcf) 0.04%
1340day
(EUR, Bcf) 0.03%
1750day
(EUR, Bcf) Duong 7.1%
(8.34) 5.0%
(8.18) 35.6%
(10.56) 38.0%
(10.75) 52.5%
(11.88) 65.5%
(12.89) 65.5%
(12.89) 65.7%
(12.91) Superbolic 46.5%
(11.41) 54.0%
(12.00) 57.3%
(12.25) 58.0%
(12.31) 62.1%
(12.63) 74.5%
(13.59) 74.6%
(13.60) 75.6%
(13.68) PLE -15.1%
(6.61) -13.4%
(6.75) -12.7%
(6.80) -9.6%
(7.04) -7.7%
(7.19) -3.7%
(7.50) -3.4%
(7.53) -4.2%
(7.46) YM-SEPD -52.1%
(3.73) -36.6%
(4.94) -27.9%
(5.62) -25.5%
(5.80) -23.6%
(5.95) 1.8%
(7.93) 3.4%
(8.06) 2.1%
(7.95) Simulation (7.79)

As shown in FIG. 5 (b), the cumulative production growth rate used in the sensitivity analysis is a total of eight values (0.5 to 0.03%), which indicates a minimum production period of 120 days (0.5%) to 1,750 days %)to be.

According to the simulation results, the Duong method has the best productivity when the cumulative output increase rate is 0.25% and the least amount of recoverable reservoir error. YM-SEPD is the most suitable method when the cumulative output increase rate is less than 0.05% Respectively. As a result of the production tendency analysis, the Superbolic showed a tendency to overestimate the overall effect in the boundary influent flow, and the production decline rate was calculated to be about 30% lower, which was not suitable for the late production. In addition, the PLE method has the lowest average error according to each cumulative output growth rate index, but it has difficulty in the analysis due to large errors due to the selection of the relational expression.

The simulation results are compared with the field data. The site data used in the above analysis are Canada A and US B shale gas field data, respectively, and reservoir data are shown in Table 3 below. The production period was 2.8 years and 10.2 years, respectively. As a result of the flow area analysis, the Canadian A production data was transitional flow phase and the US B production data was 8 years later. As a result of showing the cumulative output increase rate, it was able to derive a constant tendency to quantitatively quantify the decline tendency. The productivity of Canadian A production was predicted from the point of cumulative production growth rate of 0.5% (production period of 140 days) and 0.25% (production period of 520 days) Year) and 0.05% (production period, 2.9 years).

parameter Canada A US B horizontal well length (ft) 3,111 4,400 fracture stage 28 16 target depth (ft) 2,463 5,081 fracture spacing (ft) 110 270 initial production rate (Mscf / d) 25 27

N. Field data analysis shows that Canada A

Table 4 below shows the relative error relative to the yield of Canada A field data. As shown in FIG. 6, when the cumulative yield increase rate is 0.5%, the Duong method has the highest production tendency and the relative error to the production amount is 1.35% smaller than the other three decay curve methods. The PLE method and YM-SEPD conservatively predicted the production trends and the relative errors are -6.37% and -8.08%, respectively. The relative error of the Superbolic method is 3.31%. As the production period increases, the production decline slows down and the actual production amount and error increase with time.

As shown in FIG. 7, when the cumulative output increase rate is 0.25%, the Duong method is most consistent with the production tendency, and the relative error of production is 0.16%, which is smaller than 0.5%. The PLE method and the YM-SEPD method had a relatively small error (-4.45%, -6.29%) than the cumulative yield increase rate of 0.5%, but still conservatively predicted productivity. As the cumulative production growth rate of Superbolic was decreased compared to the Duong method, the production decline was slowed and the late production was overestimated.

Cumulative incline rate
(0.5%) Cumulative incline rate
(0.25%) Duong 1.35 0.16 Superbolic 3.31 5.58 PLE -6.37 -4.45 YM-SEPD -8.08 -6.29

C. Field data analysis shows that US B

Table 5 below shows relative errors relative to US B field data production. As shown in FIG. 8, when the cumulative output growth rate is 0.25%, the Duong method is not limited to the three-decay curve method except for the period in which the volatility of the mid-production (70-100 months) Production trends agreed. Also, the relative error in production was the smallest at -1.56%. The PLE and YM-SEPD methods conservatively predicted productivity and the relative errors were -13.40% and -17.22%, respectively. Superbolic showed a slow decline in production from 20 months, resulting in overestimation of production and a relative error of 7.79%. This result shows that Duong 's method is consistent with the production tendency and the relative error is the smallest when the cumulative output growth rate is 0.25%.

As shown in FIG. 9, when the cumulative yield increase rate is 0.05%, the Duong and Superbolic methods have a tendency to decline after the mid-production (60 months) compared to the other two decay curve methods, Were 7.31% and 11.63%, respectively. In the case of PLE, the tendency to decline in production earlier than YM-SEPD is large and conservatively predicted, and the relative error is -5.92%. YM-SEPD showed 0.04% relative error, which is the highest among the four decay curves.

Cumulative incline rate
(0.5%) Cumulative incline rate
(0.25%) Duong -1.56 7.31 Superbolic 7.79 11.63 PLE -13.40 -5.92 YM-SEPD -17.22 0.04

In addition, according to the present invention, when the decay curve method is used in the prediction of the production amount as described above, the decay curve method is selected according to the properties of the reservoir and the completion condition of the oil well in the selection of the analysis method, In order to solve the problem of difficult and uncertainty, the system of selecting the decay curve method by using the cumulative production increase rate index, which can be analyzed only as production data over time, Provides an alternative to the production decay rate indicator, where engineer (expert) judgment must be involved in the analysis of the existing Arps decay curve method.

As described above, it is to be understood that the technical structure of the present invention can be embodied in other specific forms without departing from the spirit and essential characteristics of the present invention.

Therefore, it should be understood that the above-described embodiments are to be considered in all respects as illustrative and not restrictive, the scope of the invention being indicated by the appended claims rather than the foregoing description, All changes or modifications that come within the scope of the equivalent concept are to be construed as being included within the scope of the present invention.

S10. Data collection phase to obtain daily production data from actual site data
S20. A step of calculating an accumulated production amount increase rate index using the data obtained in the data collecting step
S30. Selecting a decay curve method based on the value calculated in the cumulative output increase rate index
S40. Estimating an accumulated production amount and an ultimate limit amount of a non-traditional gas field by using the selected decay curve method
100. Cumulative production and ultimate yield forecasting system for non-traditional gas fields
10. Data input
20. Indicator Calculation Section
30. Index analysis section
40. Prediction unit

Claims

A method for selecting a shale gas production decay curve method using an indicator of cumulative production increase rate,
A data collecting step (step 1) in which the data input unit 10 inputs and stores daily production output data obtained from actual site data;
The index calculation unit 20 calculates an accumulated production amount increase rate index using the data acquired in the data collection step (step 2);
The index analyzing unit 30 selects the decay curve method based on the value calculated in the cumulative output increase rate index (step 3); And
The predictor 40 predicts the cumulative production amount and the ultimate limit amount of the non-traditional gas field using the selected decay curve method (step 4)
The Duong decay curve method is selected when the cumulative production increase rate index is 0.5% or 0.25% in the third step, and then the cumulative production amount and the ultimate allowance amount of the non-commercial gas field are predicted using the Duong decay curve method in the fourth step In addition,
In the third step, the YM-SEPD decay curve method is selected when the accumulated production amount increase rate index is less than or equal to 0.05%, and then the YM-SEPD decay curve method is used to calculate the cumulative production amount and ultimate yield amount A method of selecting the decay curve method according to the cumulative production increase rate index in a non-traditional gas field

The method according to claim 1,
The above cumulative production growth rate index is calculated by the following formula. In the non-traditional gas field, the method of selecting the decay curve method according to the cumulative production increase rate index

IG _p = cumulative output growth index
G _p (t _n ) = n cumulative yield value of time (day)
G _p (t _{n + 1} ) = n + 1 Cumulative yield value of hour (day)

The method according to claim 1,
In the third step, the decay curve method may be one of a super hyperbolic decline (Superbolic) method, a power law law decay curve method (PLE), a Duong decay curve method, and a YM-SEPD decay curve method. Method of selecting decay curve method according to cumulative output growth rate index

delete

A computer-readable recording medium recording a program for selecting the cumulative yield increase rate index and a decay curve method using the method of any one of claims 1 to 3.