CN115705452A - Novel recovery ratio prediction method for middle and later stages of integrated sandstone reservoir development - Google Patents
Novel recovery ratio prediction method for middle and later stages of integrated sandstone reservoir development Download PDFInfo
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- CN115705452A CN115705452A CN202110893639.7A CN202110893639A CN115705452A CN 115705452 A CN115705452 A CN 115705452A CN 202110893639 A CN202110893639 A CN 202110893639A CN 115705452 A CN115705452 A CN 115705452A
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Abstract
The invention provides a novel recovery ratio prediction method for the middle and later stages of the development of a self-contained sandstone oil reservoir, which comprises the following steps: step 1, selecting a typical block of a whole sandstone oil reservoir and establishing a basic conceptual model; step 2, determining dynamic and static main control influence factors of the water drive recovery ratio of the whole sandstone oil reservoir; step 3, determining the value range of the dynamic and static main control influence factors according to the screened dynamic and static main control influence factors; step 4, calculating the recovery ratio of each model by adopting an orthogonal design method according to the main control dynamic and static influence factors and the value range thereof determined in the step 3; and 5, obtaining a novel recovery ratio prediction formula according to the orthogonal design experiment simulation result in the step 4. The novel recovery ratio prediction method in the middle and later stages of the whole sandstone oil reservoir development has the advantages that the data sample parameter value range and the calculation result conform to the oil reservoir and geological characteristics of a specific block better, and more accurate guidance basis can be provided for potential evaluation and planning of old oil fields.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of oil reservoir numerical simulation, oil field development and planning research and technical application, in particular to a novel recovery ratio prediction method for the middle and later stages of the development of a whole sandstone oil reservoir.
Background
The oil gas recovery rate is an important index for oil field development and production reference, and how to accurately predict the recovery rate through dynamic and static indexes has important significance for evaluating the future development potential of the oil field and formulating a development planning strategy as most oil field development in China enters the middle and later stages.
The domestic recovery factor prediction method mainly comprises an empirical analogy method, a core analysis method, a phase permeability curve method, an empirical formula method and the like, and the national energy agency also provides an industry standard petroleum recoverable reserve calculation method in 1998 and makes changes in 2010. However, in the existing recovery ratio calculation method, there are still some problems, such as the small statistical sample size, low correlation coefficient and poor representativeness of the empirical formula of some formulas; some formulas are based on data in the early development stage, the production history is short, the owned data is few, the determined recovery ratio is low, and the like, and the formulas are required to be corrected when in use.
The numerical simulation is a relatively accurate technical means for evaluating the recovery efficiency of oil reservoirs in different development stages, is a main means and basis for predicting the development indexes of the old oil fields at present, but the prediction of the recovery efficiency is usually limited to a specific block and is determined by a specific geological model and a development mode, and has insufficient guiding significance for the analysis and planning of the overall development potential of the oil fields of the same type, so that the numerical simulation of the oil reservoirs is not adopted as a main technical means in the analysis and planning of the development potential of the oil fields. Taking an integral sandstone oil reservoir as an example, the geological conditions and development dynamic factors of different blocks are greatly different, and the recovery ratio difference is also large, so that no universal method exists at present how to establish a recovery ratio prediction method which accords with the actual oil field in the whole oil field or a plurality of oil fields.
In application No.: CN202011331111.2, which relates to a method and a device for predicting oil reservoir recovery, the method comprises: constructing an original model of a multivariate linear regression model for oil reservoir recovery ratio prediction based on a plurality of predetermined parameter variables; establishing a quantitative parameter variable model according to the quantitative parameter variable and the original model; establishing a virtual variable model according to the qualitative parameter variable; introducing the virtual variable model into a parameter variable model to obtain a parameter model containing a virtual variable; performing multiple collinearity inspection on the parameter model containing the virtual variable to obtain a fourth model; performing variance test on the fourth model to obtain a fifth model; performing autocorrelation inspection on the fifth model to obtain an oil reservoir recovery prediction model; and inputting the parameter variable values of the oil reservoir recovery ratio prediction model into the oil reservoir recovery ratio prediction model after obtaining the parameter variable values of the oil reservoir recovery ratio prediction model to obtain an oil reservoir recovery ratio prediction value.
In application No.: chinese patent application CN201610619133.6 relates to a method for increasing recovery efficiency of ultra-heavy oil reservoir by horizontal well steam flooding, comprising: step 1, collecting basic data of a research block, and screening a test target area; step 2, optimizing and calculating basic parameters of horizontal well design geology and injection-production parameters of a horizontal well steam throughput stage; step 3, optimizing the form of the steam flooding well pattern, and planning and deploying the steam flooding well pattern; step 4, optimizing the steam flooding opportunity and the injection and production parameters of the horizontal well steam flooding stage; and 5, predicting the steam flooding development effect of the horizontal well, and determining the final recovery ratio of steam huff-puff to steam flooding development of the horizontal well.
In application No.: CN201611027253.3, a chinese patent application, relates to a method for predicting crude oil recovery from a water-drive reservoir, comprising the steps of: dividing the production history of the oil field into a plurality of development stages according to data point forms of accumulated water and accumulated oil of the actual oil field after the accumulated water and the accumulated oil are distributed according to a type A water flooding characteristic curve; respectively establishing a relational expression of water content and extraction degree containing production parameters of corresponding development stages, wherein the production parameters of the corresponding development stages comprise initial water content, initial extraction degree, economic limit water content and predicted crude oil recovery ratio under the condition of the economic limit water content; and predicting the crude oil recovery ratio according to the relational expression of the water content and the extraction degree in each development stage.
The prior art is greatly different from the prior art, the technical problem which is required to be solved is not solved, and therefore a novel method for predicting the recovery ratio in the middle and later stages of the development of the integrally-packaged sandstone oil reservoir is invented.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a novel recovery ratio prediction method for the middle and later stages of the development of the integrally-packed sandstone reservoir, which can provide more accurate guidance basis for potential evaluation and planning of old oil fields.
The object of the invention can be achieved by the following technical measures: the novel recovery ratio prediction method for the middle and later stages of the development of the integrally-packaged sandstone oil reservoir comprises the following steps:
step 1, selecting a typical block of a whole sandstone oil reservoir and establishing a basic conceptual model;
step 2, determining dynamic and static main control influence factors of the water drive recovery ratio of the integrally-assembled sandstone oil reservoir;
step 3, determining the value range of the dynamic and static main control influence factors according to the screened dynamic and static main control influence factors;
step 4, calculating the recovery ratio of each model by adopting an orthogonal design method according to the main control dynamic and static influence factors and the value range thereof determined in the step 3;
and 5, obtaining a novel recovery ratio prediction formula according to the orthogonal design experiment simulation result in the step 104.
The object of the invention can also be achieved by the following technical measures:
in the step 1, a typical block of the whole sandstone oil reservoir is selected, and a basic conceptual model is established by adopting dynamic and static parameters and fluid properties of the actual block.
In the step 1, the dynamic and static parameters comprise injection-production well spacing, porosity, permeability variation coefficient, permeability level difference, effective thickness, oil layer temperature and small layer number; fluid properties include crude oil viscosity, crude oil density.
In the step 2, values of all parameters are adjusted by means of numerical simulation, a single-factor and multi-factor analysis method is developed, influence trends and sensitivity degrees of all factors on the water drive recovery ratio are determined, and then dynamic and static main control influence factors of the water drive recovery ratio of the whole sandstone reservoir are determined.
In step 3, according to the screened dynamic and static main control influence factors, relevant parameters of the actual block of the target oil field are counted, and after sectional statistics and summary, the value ranges of the dynamic and static influence factors are determined.
In step 4, based on the main control dynamic and static influence factors and the value range thereof determined in step 3, an orthogonal design method is adopted, a certain number of design schemes are formed according to the number and level of the influence factors, a series of oil reservoir conceptual models capable of integrally representing the geology and development conditions of the oil field are built, the recovery ratio of each model is calculated through oil reservoir numerical simulation, and a sample set of the recovery ratio and the dynamic and static influence factors is obtained.
In step 5, a novel recovery ratio prediction formula is obtained by adopting a multivariate nonlinear regression method according to the orthogonal design experiment simulation result in the step 4.
In step 5, the new recovery prediction formula is obtained as follows:
EOR＝a*lgμ+b*lgK+c*H/D well +d*V k +e*lgPV+f*K mn +g
wherein:
EOR: ultimate recovery ratio of
μ: viscosity of underground crude oil, mPas
K: average permeability, mD;
h: average minor layer thickness, m;
D well : average injection-production well spacing, m;
V k : the plane permeability variation coefficient is dimensionless;
PV: injection times are multiple and dimensionless;
K mn : the permeability grade is poor and is dimensionless;
a to f: coefficient of parameter term;
g: a constant term.
The novel recovery ratio prediction method for the middle and later stages of the development of the integrally-packed sandstone oil reservoir aims at the problem of recovery ratio prediction for the middle and later stages of the development of the integrally-packed sandstone oil reservoir, establishes a novel recovery ratio prediction method by comprehensively utilizing means such as a numerical simulation technology, orthogonal test design, correlation analysis, multiple nonlinear regression and the like on the basis of statistical analysis of a large amount of field data and numerical simulation results, and has certain reference and guiding significance for potential analysis of old oil fields.
The novel recovery ratio prediction method for the middle and later stages of the development of the integrally-packed sandstone oil reservoir is based on orthogonal test design and numerical simulation research results, a multi-element nonlinear regression method is applied, and a novel recovery ratio prediction method for the integrally-packed sandstone oil reservoir is established.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a numerical simulation base model according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a graph illustrating the results of a recovery factor prediction equation using model data for validation in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
figure 3 is a flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention of a novel method for recovery prediction in the mid-to-late stages of the development of a self-contained sandstone reservoir.
Detailed Description
It should be noted that the following detailed description is exemplary and is intended to provide further explanation of the invention. Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention belongs.
It is noted that the terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of exemplary embodiments according to the invention. As used herein, the singular forms "a", "an" and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, and it should be understood that when the terms "comprises" and/or "comprising" are used in this specification, they specify the presence of the stated features, steps, operations, and/or combinations thereof, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.
As shown in fig. 3, fig. 3 is a flow chart of the novel recovery prediction method in the middle and later stages of the development of a self-contained sandstone reservoir according to the present invention.
102, adjusting values of parameters by means of numerical simulation, developing a single-factor and multi-factor analysis method, determining influence trends and sensitivity of factors on water drive recovery efficiency, and determining dynamic and static main control influence factors of the water drive recovery efficiency of the whole sandstone reservoir;
103, according to the screened dynamic and static main control influence factors, counting relevant parameters of the actual block of the target oil field, and determining the value range of the dynamic and static influence factors after sectional counting and summarizing;
104, taking the main control dynamic and static influence factors and the value range thereof determined in the step 103 as the basis, adopting an orthogonal design method, forming a certain number of design schemes according to the number and level of the influence factors, establishing a series of oil reservoir conceptual models capable of integrally representing the geology and development condition of the oil field according to the design schemes, calculating the recovery ratio of each model through oil reservoir numerical simulation, and obtaining a sample set of the recovery ratio and the dynamic and static influence factors;
and 105, obtaining a novel recovery ratio prediction formula by adopting a multivariate nonlinear regression method according to the orthogonal design experiment simulation result in the step 104.
The following are several specific examples to which the present invention may be applied.
Example 1:
in the specific embodiment 1 to which the invention is applied, a conceptual geological model is established according to typical block parameter values (table 1) of a whole sandstone reservoir in an oil field a.
TABLE 1A conceptual model parameter value-taking table for typical block of oil field complete sandstone reservoir
| Parameter name | Parameter value | Parameter name | Parameter value |
| Oil-containing area, km 2 | 0.31 | Original pressure, MPa | 12.4 |
| Geological reserve, 10 4 m 3 | 90 | Saturation pressure, MPa | 10.2 |
| Pore volume, 10 4 m 3 | 129 | Viscosity of underground crude oil, mPas | 45 |
| Depth of reservoir burial, m | 1261-1294 | Effective thickness, m | 12 |
| Average permeability, 10 -3 μm 2 | 1500 | Relative density of crude oil on ground | 0.953 |
| Coefficient of permeability variation | 0.6 | Original reservoir temperature, ° c | 68 |
| Original oil saturation degree% | 72 | Average porosity% | 34 |
Depending on a numerical simulation means, a Plackett-Burman test design method (table 2) is adopted to determine that main control dynamic factors influencing the recovery ratio of the whole sandstone reservoir are injection times and injection-production well spacing, an orthogonal experiment design method (table 3) is adopted to determine that main control static factors influencing the recovery ratio of the whole sandstone reservoir are crude oil viscosity, interlayer grade difference, effective thickness, permeability and plane variation coefficient, and the value ranges of dynamic and static influence factors (table 4) are determined by counting relevant parameters of a target oil field.
TABLE 2 Plackett-Burman test design and response value Table
TABLE 3 Table of calculation results of orthogonal test of static physical property parameters
TABLE 4 recovery ratio dynamic and static influence factors and value range table
Designing 64 schemes (table 5) by adopting an orthogonal design method aiming at 7 dynamic and static main control influence factors, establishing a series of comparable numerical simulation conceptual models according to listed parameters, calculating the recovery ratio of each scheme through numerical simulation software, and obtaining a sample set of the recovery ratio and the dynamic and static influence factors;
TABLE 5 orthogonal design parameters and conceptual model sample data statistics
By adopting a multiple nonlinear regression method, a novel recovery ratio prediction formula is obtained as follows:
EOR＝0.6732-0.0879×lgμ+0.0137×lgK-0.1048×H/D well -0.0685×V k +0.1108lgPV+0.0137×K mn
wherein:
EOR: ultimate recovery ratio of
μ: viscosity of underground crude oil, mPas
K: average permeability, mD;
h: average minor layer thickness, m;
D well : average injection-production well spacing, m;
V k : the coefficient of variation of the plane permeability is dimensionless;
PV: injection times are multiple and dimensionless;
K mn : the permeability grade is poor and dimensionless.
Through the verification of 64 simulation results, the regression formula R 2 The value is 87.5%, the formula adaptability is better, and the method can be used for the whole blockThe recovery factor prediction and planning calculation.
Example 2:
in an embodiment 2 to which the present invention is applied, fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of a numerical simulation basic model in an embodiment of the present invention, a planar grid has a step size of 20m × 20m, a total longitudinal thickness of 25m, a grid scale of 22 × 56 × 15=18480, an initial oil saturation of the model is set to be 0.68, and parameter fields such as an effective thickness and a permeability are generated according to orthogonal design parameters. The method is characterized in that a five-point well pattern (4-injection 9-mining, wherein PRO1-PRO9 is a production well, INJ1-INJ4 is an injection well) is adopted, injection and mining balance mode development is carried out, the liquid extraction speed is 0.1PV/a, and a corner well is subjected to split production treatment.
Example 3:
in an embodiment 3 to which the present invention is applied, fig. 2 is a result display diagram of the oil recovery prediction formula in an embodiment of the present invention, where the horizontal axis is the calculation result of the numerical model, the vertical axis is the calculation result of the oil recovery prediction formula, and the straight line segment is a fitting curve of the two, it can be seen that the overall correlation between the prediction result and the oil recovery ratio of the actual model is high, and the correlation coefficient reaches 0.8705, which indicates that the prediction formula is relatively accurate;
finally, it should be noted that: although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that modifications may be made to the embodiments described above, or equivalents may be substituted for elements thereof. Any modification, equivalent replacement, or improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
In addition to the technical features described in the specification, the technology is known to those skilled in the art.
Claims (8)
1. The novel recovery ratio prediction method for the middle and later stages of the development of the integrally-packed sandstone oil reservoir is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step 1, selecting a typical block of a whole sandstone oil reservoir, and establishing a basic concept model;
step 2, determining dynamic and static main control influence factors of the water drive recovery ratio of the whole sandstone oil reservoir;
step 3, determining the value range of the dynamic and static influence factors according to the screened dynamic and static main control influence factors;
step 4, calculating the recovery ratio of each model by adopting an orthogonal design method according to the main control dynamic and static influence factors and the value range thereof determined in the step 3;
and 5, obtaining a novel recovery ratio prediction formula according to the orthogonal design experiment simulation result in the step 4.
2. The novel recovery prediction method for the middle and later stages of the development of the self-contained sandstone oil reservoir according to claim 1, wherein in the step 1, a basic conceptual model is established by selecting a typical block of the self-contained sandstone oil reservoir and adopting dynamic and static parameters and fluid properties of an actual block.
3. The novel recovery prediction method for the middle and later stages of the development of the self-contained sandstone oil reservoir as claimed in claim 2, wherein in the step 1, the dynamic and static parameters comprise injection-production well spacing, porosity, permeability variation coefficient, permeability grade difference, effective thickness, oil layer temperature and small layer number; fluid properties include crude oil viscosity, crude oil density.
4. The novel recovery efficiency prediction method for the middle and later stages of the development of the integral sandstone oil reservoir according to claim 1, which is characterized in that in the step 2, values of all parameters are adjusted by means of numerical simulation, a single-factor and multi-factor analysis method is developed, the influence trend and the sensitivity of all factors on the water drive recovery efficiency are determined, and then dynamic and static main control influence factors of the water drive recovery efficiency of the integral sandstone oil reservoir are determined.
5. The novel recovery prediction method for the middle and later stages of the development of the self-contained sandstone oil reservoir as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step 3, the relevant parameters of the actual block of the target oil field are counted according to the screened dynamic and static main control influence factors, and the value ranges of the dynamic and static influence factors are determined after the sectional statistics are summarized.
6. The novel recovery factor prediction method for the middle and later stages of the development of the integrally-assembled sandstone oil reservoir according to claim 1, which is characterized in that in the step 4, a certain number of design schemes are formed according to the number and the level of the main control dynamic and static influence factors determined in the step 3 by adopting an orthogonal design method according to the main control dynamic and static influence factors and the value range thereof, a series of oil reservoir conceptual models capable of integrally representing the geology and the development condition of the oil field are built according to the design schemes, the recovery factor of each model is calculated through oil reservoir numerical simulation, and a sample set of the recovery factor and the dynamic and static influence factors is obtained.
7. The novel recovery prediction method for the middle and later stages of the development of the self-contained sandstone oil reservoir according to claim 1, wherein in the step 5, a novel recovery prediction formula is obtained by adopting a multivariate nonlinear regression method according to the simulation result of the orthogonal design experiment in the step 4.
8. The novel recovery factor prediction method for the middle and later stages of the development of the self-contained sandstone oil reservoir as claimed in claim 7, wherein in the step 5, the obtained novel recovery factor prediction formula is as follows:
EOR＝a*lgμ+b*lgK+c*H/D well +d*V k +e*lgPV+f*K mn +g
wherein:
EOR: ultimate recovery ratio of
μ: viscosity of underground crude oil, mPas
K: average permeability, mD;
h: average minor layer thickness, m;
D well : average injection-production well spacing, m;
V k : the plane permeability variation coefficient is dimensionless;
PV: injection times are multiple and dimensionless;
K mn : the permeability grade is poor and dimensionless;
a to f: coefficient of parameter term;
g: a constant term.
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