JPWO2021220425A5 - - Google Patents

Claims (10)

Congestion degree calculation means for calculating the degree of congestion of vehicles and stops;
a diagram output means for outputting a modified diagram obtained by modifying the current diagram by optimizing the objective function learned using the business history data including the actual diagram modification;
risk calculation means for calculating a current risk, which is a risk occurring at the present time, and a corrected risk, which is a risk caused by correcting the diagram, based on the degree of congestion;
A modified risk output device, comprising risk output means for outputting the calculated current risk and the modified risk. The risk calculation means calculates the risk for each cause based on the occurrence probability model of the risk assumed for each cause based on the congestion degree at each time and each stop,
2. The corrected risk output device according to claim 1, wherein the risk output means outputs the calculated current risk and corrected risk for each cause. a situation acquisition means for acquiring the estimated situation of the current and future vehicles and stops;
3. The corrected risk output device according to claim 1, wherein the congestion degree calculation means calculates the congestion degree based on the estimated situation of the vehicle and the stop. The situation acquisition means includes simulator execution means for executing a simulator that simulates getting on and off of passengers at each stop,
The simulator execution means estimates the degree of stagnation of passengers at at least one of each stop and vehicle at present and in the future, or the operation status of the vehicle,
4. The corrected risk output device according to claim 3, wherein the congestion degree calculation means calculates congestion degrees of vehicles and stops based on the passenger retention degree or the operation status. 5. The modified risk output device according to claim 4, wherein the simulator execution means estimates the degree of passenger retention or operation status by using the distribution of the number of passengers from the first stop to the second stop at each time in the simulator. The status acquisition means includes collected data acquisition means for acquiring entry/exit performance data at each stop that is sequentially collected,
The collected data acquisition means estimates the current degree of stagnation of passengers at each stop,
6. The corrected risk output device according to any one of claims 3 to 5, wherein the congestion degree calculation means calculates congestion degrees of vehicles and stops based on the passenger retention degree. Objective function selection means for receiving an instruction to select an objective function to be used for optimization from among objective functions prepared for each situation and purpose for changing the diagram,
The modified risk output device according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein the diagram output means outputs a modified diagram by optimizing the selected objective function. Calculate the degree of congestion of vehicles and stops,
By optimizing the objective function learned using business history data including diagram change results, the current diagram is corrected to output a corrected diagram,
calculating a current risk, which is a risk occurring at the present time, and a corrected risk, which is a risk caused by correcting the diagram, based on the degree of congestion;
A modified risk output method, characterized by outputting the calculated current risk and the modified risk. Calculate the risk for each cause based on the occurrence probability model of the risk assumed for each cause based on the congestion degree at each time and each stop,
9. The corrected risk output method according to claim 8, wherein the current risk and corrected risk for each calculated cause are output. to the computer,
Congestion degree calculation processing for calculating the degree of congestion of vehicles and stops;
A diagram output process for outputting a modified diagram obtained by modifying the current diagram by optimizing the objective function learned using the work history data including the diagram modification results,
A risk calculation process for calculating a current risk, which is a risk occurring at the present time, and a corrected risk, which is a risk caused by correcting the diagram, based on the degree of congestion;
A modified risk output program for executing risk output processing for outputting the calculated current risk and the modified risk.