JPWO2019049522A1 - Risk assessment device, risk assessment system, risk assessment method, and risk assessment program - Google Patents

Abstract

The risk assessment device (3) for risk assessment of the steam plant is in a state in which a plurality of diagnosis results for each process device provided in the piping system in the target steam plant are associated with the installation location of the process device. A diagnosis result storage unit (323) that stores and stores, and a risk information calculation unit that calculates risk information related to the risk of the process device at the installation location based on the diagnosis result of the past process device provided at the target installation location (33), and the risk information calculation unit (33) indicates, as risk information, a risk index value indicating the ease of failure of the process equipment at the installation location and the probability of the risk index value. The reliability is calculated.

Description

  The present disclosure relates to a risk evaluation apparatus, a risk evaluation system, a risk evaluation method, and a risk evaluation program for risk evaluation of a steam plant.

  In recent years, in steam plants such as petrochemical plants and thermal power plants, risk evaluation using a so-called RBI (Risk-Based Inspection) method that takes risks into account has been performed (Note that the evaluation method based on RBI is API ( American Petroleum Institute) standardized as API581). In this risk evaluation, as described in Japanese Patent No. 5884000 (Patent Document 1), the ease of failure of each device (failure occurrence probability) and the degree of influence when the failure occurs are two values. The risk of each device is evaluated based on this.

  In addition, since the failure occurrence probability of process equipment such as a steam trap installed in a steam plant is affected not only by the equipment itself but also by the environment of the place where it is installed, Japanese Patent No. 5010472 (Patent Document 2). ), For equipment installed at a predetermined location in the plant, using the diagnosis results of the past process equipment provided at the target installation location, focusing on the installation location instead of individual devices, causing equipment failures It has been proposed to determine the probability.

Japanese Patent No. 5884000 (or corresponding US Patent Application Publication No. 2017/024267) Japanese Patent No. 5010472 (or corresponding US Pat. No. 8,914,252)

  However, if the original data score, collection frequency, etc. are insufficient, even if the failure occurrence probability is obtained as in Patent Document 2, a problem will occur in terms of accuracy, and an appropriate risk It is difficult to make an evaluation.

  Therefore, it is desired to realize a risk evaluation apparatus, a risk evaluation system, a risk evaluation method, and a risk evaluation program that can perform risk evaluation more suitably for a steam plant.

The risk assessment device according to the present disclosure is a risk assessment device for risk assessment of a steam plant,
A diagnosis result storage unit that accumulates and stores a plurality of diagnosis results for each process device provided in a piping system in the target steam plant in a state associated with an installation location of the process device;
A risk information calculation unit that calculates risk information related to the risk of the process equipment at the installation location based on the diagnosis results of the successive process equipment provided at the target installation location;
The risk information calculation unit calculates, as the risk information, a risk index value that indicates the ease of failure of the process equipment at the installation location, and a reliability that indicates the probability of the risk index value.

  According to this configuration, as risk information, in addition to the risk index value that indicates the likelihood of failure of the process equipment, the reliability that indicates the probability of the risk index value is calculated. It is possible to perform a risk evaluation that also takes into account the degree of reliability of the steam plant, so that it is possible to perform the risk evaluation more suitably for the steam plant.

  Hereinafter, the suitable aspect of the risk evaluation apparatus which concerns on this indication is demonstrated. However, the scope of the present disclosure is not limited by the preferred embodiments described below.

  The greater the number of process devices with diagnostic results, the higher the accuracy of the calculated risk index value. Therefore, as one aspect, it is preferable that the risk information calculation unit calculates the reliability based on the number of historical process devices in which a diagnosis result for the target installation location exists.

  The smaller the diagnosis frequency is, the more accurately the period until the failure of each process device can be grasped, and the accuracy of the risk index value calculated as a result increases. Therefore, as one aspect, it is preferable that the risk information calculation unit calculates the reliability based on a diagnosis frequency for the target installation location.

  It can be said that the smaller the variation in the obtained diagnosis results, the higher the accuracy of the calculated risk index value. Therefore, as one aspect, it is preferable that the risk information calculation unit calculates the reliability based on a variation in each diagnosis result for the target installation location.

  As one aspect, for a device group including a steam using device that uses steam, a piping system connected to the steam using device, and each process device provided in the piping system, the target device group is It is preferable to provide a device group risk information calculation unit that calculates device group risk information related to the ease of failure of the target device group based on the risk information at the installation location of each process device to be configured.

  In the steam plant, the operating conditions of the steam equipment are related to the load on the process equipment, and abnormalities that occur in the process equipment affect the steam equipment, and the equipment in the equipment group is related to each other. . In particular, within a group of equipment that includes steam-using equipment, piping systems, and process equipment, failure of the process equipment that affects the steam that flows into or out of the steam-using equipment is likely to cause failure of the equipment group. Will be dominant in the evaluation. Therefore, in this configuration, the risk information of the device group is calculated based on the risk information focusing on the installation location of each process device that constitutes the target device group, so that risk evaluation is preferably performed on a device group basis. be able to.

  As one aspect, for each of the device groups, an arrangement relationship storage unit that stores an arrangement relationship between the process devices that constitute the device group, and an arrangement relationship between the process devices that constitute the device group, A calculation method storage unit that stores a calculation method for calculating the device group risk information, and the device group risk information calculation unit corresponds to an arrangement relationship between the process devices in the target device group. It is preferable to calculate the device group risk information of the device group using a calculation method.

  As described above, the devices in the device group are related to each other, but each process device is connected to other devices depending on the arrangement relationship with each other, for example, each process device is in a serial or parallel arrangement relationship. The effect will be different. Therefore, according to this configuration, a calculation method according to the arrangement relationship of each process device in the process device group is established in advance, and the device group risk information is calculated using this calculation method. Risk assessment can be performed more suitably.

The risk assessment system according to the present disclosure is a risk assessment system for risk assessment of a steam plant,
A diagnosis result storage unit that accumulates and stores a plurality of diagnosis results for each process device provided in a piping system in the target steam plant in a state associated with an installation location of the process device;
A risk information calculation unit that calculates risk information related to the risk of the process equipment at the installation location based on the diagnosis results of the successive process equipment provided at the target installation location;
The risk information calculation unit calculates, as the risk information, a risk index value that indicates the ease of failure of the process equipment at the installation location, and a reliability that indicates the probability of the risk index value.

The risk assessment method according to this disclosure is:
A risk assessment method for risk assessment of a steam plant, which is executed by a computer,
A diagnostic result storage step for storing and storing a plurality of diagnostic results for each process device provided in a piping system in the target steam plant in a state associated with an installation location of the process device;
A risk information calculation step of calculating risk information regarding the risk of the process equipment at the installation location based on the diagnosis result of the past process equipment provided at the target installation location,
In the risk information calculation step, as the risk information, a risk index value that indicates the ease of failure of the process equipment at the installation location and a reliability that indicates the probability of the risk index value are calculated.

The risk assessment program for this disclosure
A risk assessment program for risk assessment of a steam plant, which is executed by a computer,
A diagnostic result storage function for storing and storing a plurality of diagnostic results for each process device provided in a piping system in the target steam plant in a state associated with an installation location of the process device;
Based on the diagnosis result of the historical process equipment provided at the target installation location, the risk information calculation function for calculating the risk information regarding the risk of the process equipment at the installation location, and causing the computer to execute,
In the risk information calculation function, as the risk information, a risk index value that indicates the ease of failure of the process equipment at the installation location and a reliability that indicates the probability of the risk index value are calculated. .

  According to these structures, the same effect as the above-described risk evaluation apparatus can be obtained.

Schematic configuration diagram of a plant monitoring system according to the present embodiment Block diagram of risk assessment device Schematic showing an example of equipment group Block diagram showing an example of the risk information calculation unit Block diagram showing an example of a device group risk information calculation unit

  Embodiments of a risk evaluation device, a risk evaluation system, a risk evaluation method, and a risk evaluation program according to the present disclosure will be described with reference to the drawings. Below, the example which incorporated the risk evaluation apparatus which concerns on this embodiment in the plant monitoring system which monitors the steam plants 2 using steam, such as a petrochemical plant and a thermal power plant, is demonstrated.

  First, as shown in FIG. 1, in the plant monitoring system according to the present embodiment, a monitoring server 3 that functions as a risk evaluation apparatus according to the present embodiment transmits data from various steam plants 2 to be monitored to a network 4. The collected data is stored cumulatively in an internal database. The monitoring server 3 performs analysis and determination based on the collected data and the data stored in the database in accordance with a predetermined timing or an instruction from the user or the administrator. The state of the plant 2 is shown to the user when the user accesses the monitoring server 3 via the user terminal 1 or the user terminal 1 such as a smartphone. In addition, the results of analysis and determination are stored in a database for further analysis and determination. In the present embodiment, the “piping system” is a concept including the entire steam system including, for example, a steam trap, steam piping, various valves, and the like. Moreover, if such an entire steam system is regarded as one of the important assets, the risk evaluation apparatus, risk evaluation system, risk evaluation method, risk evaluation program, and data structure according to the present embodiment are It can be applied as one.

  The steam plant 2 discharges drains generated from the steam using device 21 that uses steam such as a turbine, a compressor, and a heat exchanger, the transport pipe that transports steam to the steam using device 21, and the steam using device 21 as components. A piping system 22 such as a drain pipe, a steam trap, a control valve, a pump, a filter, a separator, and other process equipment 23 provided in the piping system 22 are provided. Thereby, in the steam plant 2, as shown in FIG. 1, a device group centering on individual steam using devices 21 (or a plurality of steam using devices 21 in an integrated relationship for executing a series of processes) ( One or a plurality of the steam utilization devices 21, the piping system 22 connected to the steam utilization devices 21, and each process device 23 provided in the piping system 22) 24 are formed. In this state, the target processing of the steam plant 2 is performed for each individual device group 24 or in cooperation with a plurality of device groups 24.

  The steam plant 2 has a monitoring device 25 including a computer such as a PC that can communicate with the monitoring server 3 via the network 4. In the steam plant 2, each component of the steam plant 2 is detected by the monitoring device 25. Data is collected, and the collected data is transmitted to the monitoring server 3. In this way, the monitoring server 3 collects various data relating to each component of the steam plant 2, and the monitoring server 3 performs analysis / determination based on such data.

  In particular, in the present embodiment, a diagnosis result indicating whether or not the process equipment 23 is functioning normally is included in the data collected from each component. Specifically, in the steam plant 2, the inspection of the state of the process equipment 23 and the diagnosis based on the inspection are performed at predetermined intervals. In this embodiment, the diagnosis result is collected in the monitoring device 25, and It is transmitted to the monitoring server 3.

  The diagnosis performed on the process equipment 23 will be described. The process equipment 23 removes drain and other impurities from the steam flowing through the steam plant 2 and controls the flow of steam. It is provided in various places. If the process equipment 23 is out of order, a loss occurs in the operation of the steam plant 2, and if this is left unattended, the steam plant 2 may become inoperable. Therefore, in the steam plant 2, the state (temperature, vibration, etc.) of the individual process equipment 23 is detected by a portable inspector (if the sensor is provided in the process equipment 23 itself), The diagnosis of determining whether each process device 23 is functioning normally based on the detection result is repeatedly executed at certain intervals. The process equipment 23 that has been found to have failed through such a diagnosis is replaced or repaired, whereby the state of the steam plant 2 can be maintained satisfactorily. The interval between diagnoses is appropriately set according to the purpose, and may be changed every several months, every year, or in a shorter period, depending on the installation period of the process equipment 23, etc. There is also.

  In the present embodiment, the diagnosis results such as the detection results and the presence / absence of failure of each process device 23 obtained in this way are collected in the monitoring device 25 in a state associated with the identification information of the process device 23, and each time Each diagnosis is transmitted to the monitoring server 3. Although not shown, the diagnosis results are transmitted to the monitoring server 3 from the plurality of steam plants 2.

  In the present embodiment, the monitoring server 3 performs risk assessment for each steam plant 2 using the collected diagnostic results. Specifically, the monitoring server 3 performs a risk assessment focusing on the installation location where the process device 23 is installed instead of the individual process device 23, and further based on this, the device group 24 The risk in units is evaluated. Below, the structure for performing this risk evaluation among the structures with which the monitoring server 3 is provided is demonstrated.

  First, the monitoring server 3 is a general server device, and includes a communication interface for performing communication via the network 4, an input / output device for directly inputting / outputting data to / from the server device, It has a general hardware configuration such as a CPU that controls each unit of the server device, an HDD that is a large-capacity storage device that stores various data and programs, and a memory that temporarily stores programs to be executed. In the present embodiment, a risk evaluation program for performing processing to be described later is stored in the HDD, and the risk evaluation program temporarily stored in the memory is executed by the CPU, whereby each unit of the monitoring server 3 is 2 is configured to function as a risk evaluation apparatus including the functional unit shown in FIG.

  Specifically, in this embodiment, when the risk evaluation program is executed, the monitoring server 3 acquires various data such as an input / output processing unit 31 that acquires data transmitted from the monitoring device 25, and acquired data. A database unit 32 for storing information, a risk information calculation unit 33 for calculating risk information relating to the likelihood of failure of the process equipment 23, and a device group risk information relating to the likelihood of failure of the target device group 24 It is comprised as a risk evaluation apparatus provided with each function part of the apparatus group risk information calculating part 34 to perform (FIG. 2). Hereinafter, each functional unit will be described.

  First, the input / output processing unit 31 functions as an interface in the risk evaluation apparatus. Specifically, (a) data transmitted from the monitoring device 25 is acquired, and the acquired data is stored in the database unit 32, or (b) a request from the user is received, the risk information calculation unit 33 and the device group Various operations such as causing the risk information calculation unit 34 to perform calculation, outputting an evaluation result according to the request to the user, (c) editing / updating the database unit 32 in accordance with an instruction from the user, etc. Processing is to be performed.

  The database unit 32 performs data management for each steam plant 2, and includes a device information storage unit 321 that stores various information such as identification information about each component of the target steam plant 2, and a device group. 24, a device group information storage unit 322 that stores device group information related to the configuration of the device group 24, a diagnosis result storage unit 323 that stores a diagnosis result of each process device 23 transmitted from the monitoring device 25, and a risk A risk information storage unit 324 that stores risk information calculated by the information calculation unit 33; and a device group risk information storage unit 325 that stores device group risk information calculated by the device group risk information calculation unit 34. Yes.

  For example, regarding the steam using device 21, the device information storage unit 321 is associated with identification information of each steam using device 21, information on the model (turbine, compressor, heat exchanger, etc.) and model, and information on the installation year. (Installation date and time) is stored. For the process equipment 23, the equipment information storage unit 321 is associated with the identification information of each process equipment 23, for example, information on the model (steam trap, control valve, etc.) and model, and installation conditions (steam passing through). Temperature, pressure, etc.) and application information, installation year information (installation date and time), and installation location information (identification information attached to the installation location in this embodiment). The equipment information storage unit 321 is edited and updated in accordance with an instruction from the user via the input / output processing unit 31. For example, the component information regarding the target steam plant 2 is replaced. If it has been performed, it is possible to execute a predetermined process such as additionally creating an item relating to the component after the replacement and newly storing information relating to the component. Moreover, even if the information on the device after the replacement is stored, the information on the device before the replacement is also left. Therefore, the device information storage unit 321 includes not only information on each component provided in the current steam plant 2 but also information on each component. In addition, information on each successive component installed in the steam plant 2 in the past is also stored.

  The device group information storage unit 322 assigns identification information to each device group 24 and, together with the identification information, identification information of each component constituting the device group 24 (for the process device 23, identification information about the installation location is also included). Each of the constituent elements such as the steam utilization equipment 21, the piping system 22 and the process equipment 23 constituting the equipment group, the arrangement relationship between the process equipment 23 constituting the target equipment group 24, and the like. The device group information storage unit 322 functions as a device relationship storage unit that stores, for each device group 24, the relationship between the process devices 23 included in the device group 24. ).

  The diagnosis result storage unit 323 accumulatively stores the diagnosis results of each process device 23 every time the diagnosis result is transmitted from the monitoring device 25. In the diagnosis result storage unit 323, data is managed not for each individual process device 23 but for each installation location where the process device 23 is installed in the target steam plant 2. Specifically, the diagnosis result storage unit 323 is associated with identification information attached to the installation location (hereinafter referred to as installation location identification information), and for each installation location, the historical process equipment provided at the installation location. 23, the diagnosis result for each process device 23 is accumulated and stored together with the identification information of each process device 23 (hereinafter referred to as device identification information). When the input / output processing unit 31 acquires the diagnosis result transmitted from the monitoring device 25, the input / output processing unit 31 stores the diagnosis result of each process device 23 in the diagnosis result storage unit 323 and the device identification information of each process device 23. In association with the installation location identification information corresponding to, it is additionally stored together with the device identification information. Accordingly, the diagnosis result storage unit 323 accumulates and stores a plurality of times of diagnosis results for each process device 23 in the target steam plant 2 in a state associated with the installation location of the process device 23. Yes.

  The risk information storage unit 324 stores risk information regarding the ease of failure of the process equipment 23 at each installation location calculated by the risk information calculation unit 33. Specifically, the risk information calculated by the risk information calculation unit 33 is stored in the risk information storage unit 324 in a state associated with the installation location identification information.

  The device group risk information storage unit 325 stores device group risk information regarding the ease of failure of the device group 24 for each device group 24 calculated by the device group risk information calculation unit 34. Specifically, the device group risk information storage unit 325 stores the device group risk information calculated by the device group risk information calculation unit 34 in a state associated with the identification information assigned to the corresponding device group 24. ing.

  As described above, the data structure of the database unit 32 is based on the diagnosis result in which a plurality of diagnosis results for each process device 23 in the target steam plant 2 are accumulated and stored in a state associated with the installation location of the process device 23. Risk information data comprising data, risk information relating to the risk of failure of the process equipment 23 at each installation location, and equipment group risk information relating to the ease of failure of the equipment group 24 for each equipment group 24 Device group risk information data.

  The risk information calculation unit 33 is based on the diagnosis result of the past process device 23 provided at the target installation location stored in the diagnosis result storage unit 323, and the risk relating to the ease of failure of the process device 23 at the installation location. Information is calculated. Specifically, the risk information calculation unit 33 calculates a diagnosis result acquisition unit 331 that acquires a diagnosis result from the diagnosis result storage unit 323 and a risk index value that indicates the ease of failure of the process device 23 at the installation location. A risk index value calculation unit 332 and a reliability calculation unit 333 that calculates the reliability indexing the certainty of the risk index value, and calculates the risk index value and the reliability as the risk information. ing.

  The diagnosis result acquisition unit 331 acquires a diagnosis result from the diagnosis result storage unit 323, and acquires a diagnosis result for an installation location that is a calculation target.

  The risk index value calculation unit 332 calculates a risk index value that indicates the ease of failure of the process equipment 23 at the installation location for the installation location where the diagnosis result is acquired from the diagnosis result storage unit 323 according to a predetermined criterion. Is.

  First, the risk index value is a numerical value of the likelihood of failure in an arbitrary numerical range such as 0 to 100 or 0 to 10, or the installation location that does not cause much failure is “small” and easy to break down. The installation location is set to risk “medium”, especially the installation location that is prone to failure is set to risk “high”, and the installation location is indicated by letters such as A, B, and C and symbols such as ○, △, and X. The ranking is listed.

  In addition, as a method of calculating the risk index value, the number and ratio of those diagnosed as faults with respect to the target period and the number of diagnoses, or the number of historical process equipments 23 installed at the installation location in the meantime (or replacement) And the obtained value itself is used as a risk index value, and the probability of failure is ranked based on whether the value is larger or smaller than a predetermined threshold value. In addition, the number and rate of failures, the frequency of failures, the type of failure (for example, if the process device 23 is a steam trap, whether it is a mole failure or a toe failure), the model and model of the failed device, etc. The probability of failure may be digitized or ranked using one or more items as parameters.

  The reliability calculation unit 333 calculates a reliability indicating the probability of each risk index value obtained by the risk index value calculation unit 332. That is, even if the risk index value is obtained, it can be said that the larger one with a larger number of diagnostic data points used in the calculation and the smaller one have less error and higher accuracy. For this reason, it is also necessary to determine how reliable the obtained risk index value is, and the reliability calculation unit 333 calculates the reliability.

  Like the risk index value, the reliability is a numerical value of the probability of the risk index value in an arbitrary numerical range such as 0 to 100 or 0 to 10, a letter such as A, B, C, ○, Examples include the probability of risk index values ranked by symbols such as Δ and ×.

  Further, the reliability calculation unit 333 calculates the reliability of one or a plurality of items by quantifying or ranking the probability of the risk index value based on the number of items. Various items are used for the calculation of the reliability. For example, the following items 1 to 3 are listed.

  First, item 1 includes the number of successive process devices 23 in which a diagnosis result for the target installation location exists. This is because the accuracy of the calculated risk index value increases as the number of process devices 23 having a diagnosis result increases. That is, there are 10 diagnosis results for the target installation location, and there are diagnostic results for a total of 4 process devices 23 (that is, 4 in the installation location during 10 diagnoses). This means that the number of process devices 23 has been installed), and the number of items 1 is four.

  Next, item 2 includes the frequency of diagnosis for the target installation location. This is because the smaller the frequency of diagnosis, the more accurately the period until the individual process equipment 23 fails. Examples of the frequency include a diagnosis interval and an annual average. For example, when the diagnosis interval is substantially constant (for example, every six months), the interval and the year average are recorded as item 2. In addition, when there is a variation in the interval between diagnoses, the annual average can be recorded as item 2. For example, if a total of 12 diagnoses are made in 3 years, the average number of diagnoses per year is 4. In addition, when the diagnosis is performed at intervals of one year or more, the annual average becomes a decimal point.

  In addition, as item 3, variation of each diagnosis result with respect to the installation location of the object is mentioned. This is because the smaller the variation in the obtained diagnosis results, the higher the accuracy of the calculated risk index value. For the variation, a statistical method may be used, and for example, a standard deviation can be used.

  When the above items 1 to 3 are used, the larger the number of items 1, the greater the number of process devices 23 in which diagnosis results exist, and the more likely the risk index value is. When the item 2 is an interval, the smaller the number is, and when the item 2 is an annual average, the larger the number, the smaller the frequency of diagnosis, and the more likely the risk index value is. Tilt higher. For example, when item 3 is a standard deviation, the smaller the number, the smaller the variation in the diagnosis result, and the more likely the risk index value is. Then, the reliability calculation unit 333 uses one or more items based on the relationship between the number of items and the probability of the risk index value, and based on a predetermined criterion, the risk index value Quantification or ranking of the certainty. Further, the reliability calculation unit 333 may derive the numerical value of the item as reliability for one or a plurality of items.

  The risk information calculation unit 33 stores the risk index value and reliability calculated as described above in the risk information storage unit 324 as risk information in a state associated with the installation location identification information. ing. Thereby, risk information is stored in the risk information storage unit 324 for each installation location of the process equipment 23.

  The device group risk information calculation unit 34 calculates device group risk information related to the likelihood of failure of the target device group 24 based on the risk information at the installation location of each process device 23 constituting the target device group 24. This includes a calculation information acquisition unit 341, a calculation method storage unit 342, and a calculation unit 343. In other words, in the device group 24 including the steam utilization device 21, the piping system 22, and the process device 23, the failure of the process device 23 that affects the steam flowing into or out of the steam utilization device 21 is a device. It becomes dominant in evaluating the ease of failure of the group 24. Further, the ease of failure of the process equipment 23 is also affected by the environment of the place where it is installed. For this reason, the device group risk information calculation unit 34 calculates the risk information of the device group 24 based on the risk information focusing on the installation location of each process device 23 constituting the target device group 24. .

  The calculation information acquisition unit 341 acquires information necessary for calculation of the device group risk information from the database unit 32, and the type of the steam utilization device 21 constituting the device group 24 to be calculated and the device group. The device group information such as the arrangement relationship between the process devices 23 constituting the device 24 and the risk information about each process device 23 constituting the device group 24 are acquired.

  The calculation method storage unit 342 stores a calculation method for calculating device group risk information according to the arrangement relationship between the process devices 23 constituting the device group 24 to be calculated. In the present embodiment, as the device group risk information, the device group risk index value indicating the ease of failure of the target device group 24 is calculated, and the device group risk index value is calculated, As a calculation method, a calculation method for calculating a risk index value of a process device group including one piping system 22 and a plurality of process devices 23 provided in the piping system 22 in the device group 24 is stored. Specifically, a parallel calculation method when the process devices 23 are in a parallel relationship and a serial calculation method when the process devices 23 are in a serial relationship are stored. For example, in this embodiment, the risk index value of each process device 23 is standardized for calculation, and then the risk index value after normalization of each process device 23 in parallel relation is multiplied as a parallel calculation method. Then, the risk index value of the process device group is calculated, and as a serial calculation method, the largest risk index value after standardization of each process device 23 having a serial relationship is obtained as the risk index value of the process device group. It is like that. The reason why the risk index value is standardized for calculation is that the risk index value is not necessarily suitable for calculation because it is in an easy-to-understand form, and is suitable for calculation. For example, normalization is performed when the risk index value is a numerical value of the likelihood of failure, and numerical values according to the rank when the risk index value is a ranking of the likelihood of failure Can be converted to.

The calculation unit 343 calculates the device group risk information of the device group 24 using a calculation method corresponding to the arrangement relationship between the process devices 23 in the target device group 24 acquired by the calculation information acquisition unit 341. Is. Specifically, for each process equipment group constituting the equipment group 24 (a group of process equipment 23 provided in the same piping system 22; for example, reference numerals 26A and 26B in FIG. 3), a corresponding calculation method is used. After the risk index value is calculated using the device, the device group risk index value is calculated based on the calculated risk index value of the process device group. For example, when the process equipment 23 belonging to the process equipment group has a parallel relationship, a product obtained by multiplying the risk index values after normalization is calculated as the risk index value of the process equipment group, and the process belonging to the process equipment group is calculated. When the devices 23 are in a serial relationship, the largest risk index value after standardization is calculated as the risk index value after standardization of the process device group. For example, when the risk index values after standardization are P ₁ , P ₂ , and P ₃ , according to the parallel calculation method, the risk index value P = (P ₁ × P ₂ × P ₃ ) for the process equipment group, According to the serial calculation method, the risk index value P = max (P ₁ , P ₂ , P ₃ ) of the process equipment group.

  Further, as in the piping system 22B of the equipment group 24 shown in FIG. 3, a group of process equipments (hereinafter referred to as parallel equipment groups) 23D and 23E having a parallel arrangement relationship exist in one piping system 22B. When there is another process device 23F that is not included in this parallel device group, or when there are a plurality of parallel device groups in one piping system, the failure occurrence probability can be increased by only one of the parallel operation method and the serial operation method described above. Cannot calculate. Therefore, in the present embodiment, the calculation method storage unit 342 also stores a calculation method, and based on this calculation method, the calculation unit 343 calculates the risk index value of the process equipment group as follows. It is like that. First, based on the parallel operation method, the calculation unit 343 uses, for each parallel device group, the risk index value for the parallel device group, using the risk index value after normalization of the individual process devices 23 constituting the parallel device group. Is calculated. Then, based on the serial calculation method, each risk index value of the parallel device group or the risk index value of one or a plurality of parallel device groups and the risk index value of the other process device 23 are used to calculate the risk index value of the process device group. Is calculated.

For example, for the process equipment group 26B including the piping system 22B shown in FIG. 3 and the process equipments 23D to 23F provided therein, the risk index values after standardization of the process equipments 23D to 23F are respectively represented by P _D , P _E , When P _F, the arithmetic unit 343, based on parallel calculation method, process equipment 23D, the risk index value _{P DE} parallel device group consisting 23E determined by _{P DE = (P D × P} E), in series operation process based, the risk index value _{P DEF} process device group 26B from the risk index value _{P F} after normalization risk index value _{P DE} and process equipment 23F of the parallel device group _{P DEF = max ((P D} × P E ), P _F ).

  Moreover, like the piping system 22A of the equipment group 24 shown in FIG. 3, there are parallel equipment groups (process equipments 23A to 23C), and the group of parallel equipment groups is in a group arrangement relationship in series with each other. Even when there is a column in which target process devices 23B and 23C (hereinafter referred to as sub-series device groups) exist, the failure occurrence probability cannot be calculated by only one of the parallel operation method and the serial operation method. Therefore, in the present embodiment, the calculation method storage unit 342 also stores a calculation method, and based on this calculation method, the calculation unit 343 calculates the risk index value of the process equipment group as follows. It is like that. First, based on the serial calculation method, the calculation unit 343 first uses the risk index values after standardization of the process devices 23 constituting the sub series device group for the column in which the sub series device group exists, Calculate the risk index value for the group. Then, based on the parallel calculation method, when there is a risk index value for the sub-series device group and a process device 23 that does not belong to the sub-series device group, the risk index value for the parallel device group is calculated using the risk index value. Calculate.

For example, for a process apparatus group 26A composed of a piping system 22A and process equipment 23A~23C provided thereto as shown in FIG. 3, the risk index value after normalization process equipment 23A~23C each _{P A, P} B, When P _C, arithmetic unit 343, based on the series operation process, process equipment 23B, the sub-series device group consisting of 23C, the sub-series device group the risk index value _{P BC P BC = max (P} B, P C ) Further, the computing unit 343 computes the risk index value P _ABC of the process equipment group 26A composed of the process equipments 23A to 23C based on the parallel computation method by P _ABC = (P _A × max (P _B , P _C )). . In addition, when the sub series equipment group exists in each of the columns in the parallel relation in the parallel equipment group, the calculation unit 343 obtains the risk index value of each sub series equipment group, and then sets the sub series equipment group as one unit. Based on the parallel calculation method, the risk index value of the parallel device group is obtained.

  And the calculating part 343 calculates an apparatus group risk index value based on the risk index value of each process apparatus group calculated in this way. As the calculation method, the risk index values of the respective process equipment groups may be simply multiplied or the maximum value in each may be obtained. In addition, a calculation method considering each arrangement relationship may be determined, and the risk index value may be obtained by a calculation method according to the arrangement relationship. In addition, not only the risk index value of each process device group but also the risk index value of the steam using device 21 may be obtained, and the device group risk information may be calculated using the risk index value of the steam using device 21. In this case, the calculation of the risk index value of the steam using device 21 is performed by using, for example, a database storing a formula and parameters for calculating the failure occurrence probability for each type of the steam using device 21, and storing the device information. The failure occurrence probability of the target steam utilization device 21 is calculated based on the information stored in the unit 321 and the risk index value of the steam utilization device 21 is obtained from the failure occurrence probability. Further, the risk index value of the steam utilization device 21 is set high for the device used in the main, and set low for the device used in the sub, and is simply given to the operation of the steam plant 2 when the device breaks down. You may set based on an influence degree.

  Moreover, you may make it the apparatus group risk information calculating part 34 obtain | require the reliability which indexes the probability of an apparatus group risk index value as apparatus group risk information. As a calculation method of the reliability, when the reliability of each process device 23 constituting the target device group 24 is common, the reliability of each process device 23 is set as the reliability of the device group 24, and each process device When the reliability of the device group 23 is different, the average value of the reliability of each process device 23 or the lowest reliability among the reliability of each process device 23 may be used as the reliability of the device group 24.

  The device group risk information calculation unit 34 then stores the device group risk information (device group risk index value and reliability) calculated as described above in association with the device group identification information. 325 is stored.

  In the present embodiment, the risk information calculation unit 33 newly creates a risk index every time the diagnosis result storage unit 323 is updated (that is, every time a diagnosis result transmitted from the monitoring device 25 is newly stored). The value and the reliability are calculated, and the new risk index value and the reliability are stored in the risk information storage unit 324. Further, the device group risk information calculation unit 34 includes the risk information storage unit 324. Every time it is updated (that is, every time a new risk index value and reliability are newly stored), new device group risk information is calculated. Accordingly, in the database unit 32, the risk information data stored in the risk information storage unit 324 is updated in conjunction with the update of the diagnosis result data, and the device group risk stored in the device group risk information storage unit 325 is updated. Information data is updated in conjunction with the update of risk information data.

  As described above, in the monitoring server 3, (1) a plurality of diagnosis results for each process device 23 in the target steam plant 2 are accumulated and stored in a state associated with the installation location of the process device 23. Based on the diagnosis result storage step and (2) the diagnosis result of the historical process equipment 23 provided at the target installation location, risk information regarding the ease of failure of the process equipment 23 at the installation location (risk in this embodiment) (3) a risk information calculation step for calculating (index value and reliability) and (3) risk of failure of the target device group 24 based on risk information at the installation location of each process device 23 constituting the target device group 24 And a device group risk information calculation step for calculating device group risk information related to the safety, and based on the collected diagnosis results, Click information is to be stored in the database unit 32. And a user requests | requires risk information with respect to the monitoring server 3, The evaluation result according to a request | requirement is output with respect to a user via the input-output processing part 31, and a user is about the target steam plant 2. It is possible to conduct risk assessments.

  As an additional configuration, when a calculation model for calculating the failure occurrence probability of the process equipment 23 is required, the risk information calculation unit 33 is configured as shown in FIG. The risk index value may be calculated by comparing the failure occurrence probability obtained from the above and the failure rate based on the diagnosis result of the historical process equipment 23 provided at the target installation location.

  The risk information calculation unit 33 shown in FIG. 4 will be described. Further, the calculation model storage unit 334 that stores a calculation model for calculating the failure occurrence probability from the one shown in FIG. A failure rate calculation unit 335 that calculates a failure rate that is a rate of the process equipment 23 that has failed after the elapse of the reference period, and a failure occurrence probability calculation unit 336 that calculates a failure occurrence probability based on an operation model, The risk index value calculation unit 332 calculates the risk index value by comparing the calculated failure rate with the failure occurrence probability.

  The calculation model storage unit 334 stores a calculation model for calculating the failure occurrence probability of the process device 23 based on the installation period of the target process device 23. For example, not only the target steam plant 2 but also a large number of steam plants, if there is data on the number of years until failure of the process equipment 23 installed there, by using a statistical method, With respect to the process equipment 23 to be operated, it is possible to derive a calculation model of failure occurrence probability using the installation period as a parameter. The calculation model storage unit 334 stores such calculation models. The calculation model stored in the calculation model storage unit 334 may be a simple model having only the installation period as a parameter, but in addition to the installation period, each process device 23 stored in the device information storage unit 321 may be used. A detailed calculation model using one or a plurality of items relating to the type of the process equipment 23 such as the type and application as parameters may be used. If it is a detailed calculation model, it is possible to calculate the failure occurrence probability according to the type of the process device 23 based on various information stored in the device information storage unit 321, and accurately calculate the failure occurrence probability. It becomes possible to ask. In addition, when an operation model is obtained for each type such as the model and model of the process device 23, the operation model storage unit 334 stores an operation model for each type.

  Based on the diagnosis result of the historical process equipment 23 provided at the target installation location, the failure rate calculation unit 335 fails after the elapse of the reference period from the installation of the historical process equipment 23 to the installation location. The failure rate, which is the rate of the process equipment 23 that is running, is obtained. For example, five process equipments 23 are installed at the target installation location, diagnosis is performed every six months, and two of the diagnosis results fail when two years have passed. If 1 unit is out of order after 3 years, 1 unit is out of order after 4 years, 1 unit is out of order after 4 years, Four of the five units have failed, and the failure rate is 80% (80%). In this way, the failure rate calculation unit 335 obtains the failure rate with respect to the reference period for each installation location. The reference period is required to be at least longer than the interval of diagnosis, but is not particularly limited, and may be set as appropriate according to the target installation location.

  The failure occurrence probability calculation unit 336 calculates the failure occurrence probability in the reference period for the process equipment 23 at the target installation location based on the calculation model stored in the calculation model storage unit 334. Specifically, for example, for the process equipment 23 provided at the target installation location, an item that is a parameter of the operation model is extracted from the equipment information storage unit 321, and the failure occurrence probability in the reference period is calculated based on the extracted data. Calculate. In addition, when an arithmetic model is stored in the arithmetic model storage unit 334 for each type such as a model or model, the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 336 uses the calculation model corresponding to the target process device 23 to use the failure occurrence probability. Is calculated.

  The risk index value calculation unit 332 compares the calculated failure rate with the failure occurrence probability, and calculates the risk index value of the process device 23 at the target installation location. That is, the failure occurrence probability obtained based on the computation model by the failure occurrence probability computation unit 336 is a general one, and reflects even a specific influence caused by the environment of the installation location where the target process device 23 is installed. It was n’t. On the other hand, the failure rate calculated by the failure rate calculation unit 335 is the ease of failure of the device determined in consideration of the installation location environment. Therefore, when the failure rate is higher than the failure occurrence probability, it can be said that the environment of the installation location has a great influence on the ease of failure of the process equipment 23. Therefore, the risk index value calculation unit 332 compares the failure rate with the failure occurrence probability, grasps the installation location that greatly affects the ease of failure of the process equipment 23, and installs the failure location easily. Is to identify.

  When the failure rate is compared with the failure occurrence probability, even if the failure rate is higher, there is a possibility that the failure rate is due to an error. Therefore, the risk index value calculation unit 332 has a predetermined failure rate compared to the failure occurrence probability. When the value is higher than the value, the risk index value is calculated on the assumption that there is an influence of the installation location on the ease of failure of the target process equipment 23. That is, the risk index value calculation unit 332 does not simply compare the magnitude of the failure rate and the failure occurrence probability, but calculates the risk index value based on the degree of deviation. In order to calculate the risk index value, a threshold value of a plurality of stages is provided, and the probability of failure is ranked according to how far the failure rate deviates from the failure occurrence probability. Good.

  Further, in the case where a plurality of types of process devices 23 having different types such as models and models are included in the historical process devices 23 included in the diagnosis result, a failure rate and a failure occurrence probability are obtained for each type of the process devices 23, It is preferable to make a comparison for each type. Therefore, the failure rate calculation unit 335 calculates a failure rate for each type when the past process devices 23 include a plurality of types of process devices 23, and the failure occurrence probability calculation unit 336 includes the past process devices 23. When a plurality of types of process devices 23 are included, the failure occurrence probability is calculated for each type, and the risk index value calculation unit 332 compares the failure rate calculated for each type with the failure occurrence probability, The risk index value at the installation location is calculated.

As described above, in the risk index value calculation unit 332 shown in FIG.
(1) an operation model storage step for storing an operation model for calculating a failure occurrence probability of the process device 23 based on an installation period of the target process device 23;
(2) Based on the diagnosis result of the historical process equipment 23 provided at the target installation location, among the historical process equipments 23, the process equipment that has failed after the elapse of a predetermined period from the installation at the installation location A failure rate calculation step for obtaining a failure rate that is a rate of 23;
(3) a failure occurrence probability calculation step of calculating a failure occurrence probability in a predetermined period for the process equipment 23 at the target installation location based on the calculation model;
(4) a risk index value calculation step of calculating a risk index value for comparing the failure rate and the calculated failure occurrence probability to index the ease of failure of the process equipment 23 at the target installation location;
The risk index value is calculated for each target installation location.

  Further, as an additional configuration, the device group risk information calculation unit 34 is configured as shown in FIG. 5, and even if the diagnosis result for the target device group 24 does not satisfy the criteria, it matches or is similar to the device group 24. The device group risk information regarding the device group 24 being used may be obtained as the device group risk information regarding the target device group 24. To explain this, in order to accurately obtain risk information focusing on the installation location, it is preferable that a certain standard is satisfied, such as that there is a diagnosis result for a certain number of process devices 23, and the device to be calculated When the diagnosis result for the process equipment 23 constituting the group 24 does not satisfy the standard, the risk information cannot be obtained with high accuracy. However, since the ease of failure of the device group 24 depends to some extent on the configuration of the device group 24 (type and arrangement relationship of each device), the ease of failure of the target device group 24 depends on this. It can be inferred to some extent from the ease of failure of the matching or similar device group 24. Therefore, the device group risk information calculation unit 34 is configured as shown in FIG. 5, and the device group risk information for the device group 24 that matches or is similar to the target device group 24 is used as the device group risk for the target device group 24. By obtaining as information, risk assessment can be suitably performed for the target device group 24.

  The device group risk information calculation unit 34 shown in FIG. 5 will be described. Further, it is determined whether or not the diagnosis result of the process device 23 constituting the device group 24 to be calculated satisfies the criteria from the one shown in FIG. And a device group risk information acquisition unit 345 that acquires device group risk information of the device group 24 similar to the target device group 24.

  The determination unit 344 determines whether or not the diagnosis result accumulated for each process device 23 constituting the device group 24 satisfies a predetermined criterion for the target device group 24. For example, the determination unit 344 uses a standard in which one or a plurality of items such as the number of times of diagnosis, the number of process devices 23 in which the diagnosis results exist, the frequency of diagnosis, and variations in the diagnosis results are predetermined for the accumulated diagnosis results. Judgment is made based on whether the condition is satisfied. Although the items used for the determination are not particularly limited, the determination unit 344 determines the reliability of each process device 23 stored in the risk information storage unit 324 and the target device group 24 stored in the device group risk information storage unit 325. The reliability may be an item used for the determination, and the determination may be made based on whether the reliability satisfies a predetermined criterion.

  The device group risk information acquisition unit 345 has device group information that matches or is similar to the device group information in the device group 24 when the determination unit 344 determines that the standard is not satisfied, and the determination The device group risk information for the other device group 24 determined to satisfy the standard by the unit 344 is obtained, and the obtained device group risk information is used as the device group risk information for the target device group 24. Yes.

  Specifically, in the present embodiment, the device group risk information acquisition unit 345 is stored in the device group information of the target device group 24 acquired by the calculation information acquisition unit 341 and the device group information storage unit 322. The device group information of the other device group 24 is compared, and the identification information of the other device group 24 that matches the device group information of the target device group 24 or is similar to or more than a predetermined standard or the identification of the process device 23 constituting the device group information Information is extracted from the device group information storage unit 322. The items used for the comparison of the device group information are not particularly limited. For example, in this embodiment, the types of the steam utilization device 21 and the process device 23 constituting the device group 24 and the process devices constituting the device group 24 are described. 23 are compared with each other. In addition, when there are a plurality of other device groups 24 that match the device group information of the target device group 24 or are similar to or more than a predetermined standard, the identification information of the device group 24 and the process of configuring the same for all the device groups 24 The identification information of the device 23 is extracted.

  Furthermore, the device group risk information acquisition unit 345 refers to the device group risk information storage unit 325 and the risk information storage unit 324, and the reliability of the device group 24 and the process device 23 corresponding to the extracted identification information is a standard. It is determined whether or not the device group is satisfied, and device group risk information about the device group 24 that satisfies the standard is acquired. Note that there are a plurality of other device groups 24 that match the device group information of the target device group 24 or are similar to or more than a predetermined standard, and the reliability of the corresponding device group 24 and process device 23 satisfies the standard. When there are a plurality of device groups 24, the device group risk information about the device group 24 having the device group information that matches or is most similar to the device group information of the target device group 24, or the device group 24 with the highest reliability. Just get it.

  The device group risk information acquisition unit 345 stores the acquired device group risk information as device group risk information for the target device group 24 in the device group risk information storage unit 325 in a state associated with the device group identification information. It is supposed to be. In this case, the device group risk information storage unit 325 stores the device group risk information so that it can be identified whether the device group risk information is acquired by the device group risk information acquisition unit 345 or is calculated by the calculation unit 343. It is like that.

  Then, in the device group risk information calculation unit 34 illustrated in FIG. 5, first, the determination unit 344 determines based on the information acquired by the calculation information acquisition unit 341, and the determination unit 344 determines that the standard is satisfied. Then, the calculation unit 343 calculates the device group risk information based on the risk information at the installation location of each process device 23 constituting the target device group 24, and the determination unit 344 determines that the criterion is not satisfied. The device group risk information acquisition unit 345 requests the device group risk information.

[Other Embodiments]
Finally, other embodiments of the risk evaluation device, the risk evaluation system, the risk evaluation method, and the risk evaluation program according to the present disclosure will be described. Note that the configurations disclosed in the following embodiments can be applied in combination with the configurations disclosed in other embodiments as long as no contradiction arises.

(1) In the above embodiment, the configuration in which a series of processing is performed by the monitoring server 3 alone has been described as an example. However, the embodiment of the present disclosure is not limited to this. For example, the information stored in the database unit 32 such as diagnosis results and risk information is stored in one or a plurality of external database servers, and the monitoring server 3 By using a risk evaluation system composed of a plurality of devices, such as acquiring information for calculation from a database server as necessary, the processing performed by the monitoring server 3 may be performed by a plurality of devices in a distributed manner. Good.

(2) The calculation processing performed by the risk information calculation unit 33 and the device group risk information calculation unit 34 shown in the above embodiment is merely an example, and can be appropriately changed according to the purpose.

(3) In the above embodiment, the configuration in which the device group risk information calculation unit 34 calculates the device group risk information has been described as an example. However, the embodiment of the present disclosure is not limited to this, and the device group risk information calculation unit 34 is not included, and the device group risk information may not be calculated.

(4) Regarding other configurations, it should be understood that the embodiments disclosed herein are illustrative in all respects, and that the scope of the present disclosure is not limited thereby. Those skilled in the art will readily understand that appropriate modifications can be made without departing from the spirit of the present disclosure. Accordingly, other embodiments modified without departing from the spirit of the present disclosure are naturally included in the scope of the present disclosure.

  The present disclosure can be used, for example, to perform plant risk assessment.

2 Steam Plant 21 Steam Utilization Equipment 22 Piping System 23 Process Equipment 24 Equipment Group 3 Monitoring Server (Risk Evaluation Device)
322 Device group information storage unit (arrangement relationship storage unit)
323 Diagnosis result storage unit 33 Risk information calculation unit 34 Device group risk information calculation unit 342 Calculation method storage unit

Claims (9)

A risk assessment device for risk assessment of a steam plant,
A diagnosis result storage unit that accumulates and stores a plurality of diagnosis results for each process device provided in a piping system in the target steam plant in a state associated with an installation location of the process device;
A risk information calculation unit that calculates risk information related to the risk of the process equipment at the installation location based on the diagnosis results of the successive process equipment provided at the target installation location;
The risk information calculation unit calculates, as the risk information, a risk index value that indicates the likelihood of failure of the process equipment at the installation location, and a reliability that indicates the likelihood of the risk index value Evaluation device.   The risk evaluation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the risk information calculation unit calculates the reliability based on the number of the historical process devices in which a diagnosis result for the target installation location exists.   The risk evaluation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the risk information calculation unit calculates the reliability based on a diagnosis frequency for the installation location of the target.   The risk evaluation apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the risk information calculation unit calculates the reliability based on a variation in each diagnosis result for the target installation location.   Each process device constituting the target device group with respect to a device group including a steam-using device using steam, a piping system connected to the steam-using device, and each process device provided in the piping system The apparatus group risk information calculating part which calculates the apparatus group risk information regarding the easiness of failure about the said apparatus group of object based on the said risk information in the installation location of any one of Claims 1-4. Risk assessment equipment. For each device group, an arrangement relationship storage unit that stores an arrangement relationship between the process devices constituting the device group,
A calculation method storage unit that stores a calculation method for calculating the device group risk information according to the arrangement relationship between the process devices constituting the device group,
The said apparatus group risk information calculating part calculates the said apparatus group risk information of the said apparatus group using the said calculation method corresponding to the arrangement | positioning relationship between each process apparatus in the said said apparatus group of object. Risk assessment device. A risk assessment system for risk assessment of a steam plant,
A diagnosis result storage unit that accumulates and stores a plurality of diagnosis results for each process device provided in a piping system in the target steam plant in a state associated with an installation location of the process device;
A risk information calculation unit that calculates risk information related to the risk of the process equipment at the installation location based on the diagnosis results of the successive process equipment provided at the target installation location;
The risk information calculation unit calculates, as the risk information, a risk index value that indicates the likelihood of failure of the process equipment at the installation location, and a reliability that indicates the likelihood of the risk index value Evaluation system. A risk assessment method for risk assessment of a steam plant, which is executed by a computer,
A diagnostic result storage step for storing and storing a plurality of diagnostic results for each process device provided in a piping system in the target steam plant in a state associated with an installation location of the process device;
A risk information calculation step of calculating risk information regarding the risk of the process equipment at the installation location based on the diagnosis result of the past process equipment provided at the target installation location,
In the risk information calculation step, as the risk information, a risk index value for indexing the likelihood of failure of the process equipment at the installation location and a reliability index for indexing the probability of the risk index value Evaluation methods. A risk assessment program for risk assessment of a steam plant, which is executed by a computer,
A diagnostic result storage function for storing and storing a plurality of diagnostic results for each process device provided in a piping system in the target steam plant in a state associated with an installation location of the process device;
Based on the diagnosis result of the historical process equipment provided at the target installation location, the risk information calculation function for calculating the risk information regarding the risk of the process equipment at the installation location, and causing the computer to execute,
In the risk information calculation function, as the risk information, a risk index value that indicates the ease of failure of the process equipment at the installation location and a reliability that indicates the probability of the risk index value are calculated. Risk assessment program.

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