JPWO2018008303A1 - Opportunity loss calculation system, opportunity loss calculation method and opportunity loss calculation program - Google Patents

Abstract

The storage unit 81 stores, for each target product set including a plurality of products, the number without demand which is the number of demand when the products included in the target product set are not out of stock and the target product set The number of shortages, which is the number of demand when one or more contained products are out of stock, is stored in association with each period. The opportunity loss calculation unit 82 sets the opportunity loss of the target product set including the product in the product shortage period to the number of unstocked demand and the number of demand in the corresponding data stored in the storage unit 81. Calculate based on.

Description

  The present invention relates to an opportunity loss calculating system, an opportunity loss calculating method, and an opportunity loss calculating program for calculating an opportunity loss of a product.

  It is common practice to forecast sales based on past sales performance. In addition, in order to further improve forecast accuracy, there are also cases where opportunity losses are considered in past sales results.

  Patent Document 1 describes an example of a method of calculating the opportunity loss. According to the method described in Patent Document 1, after the sales result cumulative value J (t) and the sales forecast cumulative value Y (t) at the supply time point t are determined for each product to be forecasted, R (t) = The amount of divergence R (t) between the supply amount and the demand amount is calculated by Y (t) −J (t).

Unexamined-Japanese-Patent No. 10-228463

  However, in reality, just because a certain target product does not exist, it can not always be said that all losses have occurred for the quantity predicted to be marketable. For example, even if there is no type A beverage at a certain store, there is a good possibility that type B beverages will be purchased instead. In this case, even if the drink of type A does not exist in a certain store, the sales as the whole drink in the store do not change. Thus, just because a target product does not exist does not mean that there is simply an opportunity loss corresponding to the predicted quantity of the target product.

  As described in Patent Document 1, when the deviation amount between the sales forecast and the sales record of a certain target product is simply taken as the opportunity loss, the opportunity loss is similarly calculated for each product, There is a possibility that the opportunity loss as a whole store may be greatly estimated.

  Then, this invention aims at providing the opportunity loss calculation system, the opportunity loss calculation method, and the opportunity loss calculation program which can calculate the opportunity loss as the whole store more appropriately.

  In the opportunity loss calculation system according to the present invention, for each target product set including a plurality of products, the number without demand which is the number of demand when the product included in the target product set is not out of stock There is a shortage with one or more items included in the target product set, the storage unit that stores the number of needs, which is the demand number, in association with each period, and the period when a certain item is out of stock And an opportunity loss calculating unit for calculating the opportunity loss of the target product set including the product in the storage unit based on the number of unstocked demand and the number of outstocked demand in the corresponding period stored in the storage unit. I assume.

  In the opportunity loss calculation method according to the present invention, for each target product set including a plurality of products, the number of demand without a shortage is the number of demand when the product included in the target product set is not out of stock There is an out-of-stock condition, which is the number of demand when one or more products included in the product set are out of stock, from the storage unit that stores the number of needs in association with each period, corresponds to the period for calculating opportunity loss It is characterized in that the number of out-of-stock demand and the number of out-of-stock demand are specified and the opportunity loss of the target product set of the period is calculated based on the specified out-of-stock demand and out-of-stock demand.

  The opportunity loss calculation program according to the present invention is a computer that when there is no shortage of products included in the target product set for each target product set including a plurality of products, the shortage-free demand number And the period for which the opportunity loss is calculated from the storage unit that stores the number of shortages, which is the number of demand when one or more products included in the target product set are out of stock, in association with each period. Calculate the opportunity loss of the target product set for the period based on the specified processing that specifies the number of shortages and demand that corresponds to the number of shortages and the number of shortages and shortages that are identified. Calculation processing to be executed.

  According to the present invention, the opportunity loss of the whole store can be calculated more appropriately.

It is a block diagram showing an example of composition of a 1st embodiment of a chance loss calculation system by the present invention. It is an explanatory view showing an example of opportunity loss. It is explanatory drawing which shows the example of the calculation method of opportunity loss. It is explanatory drawing which shows the example of the demand number which the memory | storage part 11 memorize | stores. It is explanatory drawing which shows the example of the process which calculates opportunity loss. It is an explanatory view showing an example of processing which amends sales. It is a flowchart which shows the operation example of the opportunity loss calculation system of 1st Embodiment. It is explanatory drawing which shows the example of the condition which a demand shift generate | occur | produces to another goods set. It is explanatory drawing which shows the other example of the demand number which the memory | storage part 11 memorize | stores. It is explanatory drawing which shows the example of the process which calculates a category demand shift. It is a flowchart which shows the operation example of the opportunity loss calculation system of 2nd Embodiment. It is a block diagram which shows the outline | summary of the opportunity loss calculation system by this invention.

Embodiment 1
FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an example of the configuration of a first embodiment of the opportunity loss calculation system according to the present invention. The opportunity loss calculation system 10 of the present embodiment includes a storage unit 11, an opportunity loss calculation unit 12, a correction unit 13, a learning unit 14, and a prediction unit 15.

  First, the opportunity loss assumed in the present invention will be described. FIG. 2 is an explanatory view showing an example of the opportunity loss. When there is a shortage or the like of a single product A (single product A) in a certain time zone, it can be said that the quantity of single product A that could have been sold in that time zone is an opportunity loss (see FIG. 2A). Note that "out of stock" indicates, for example, a state in which the product is not displayed at the shop. In the case of "out of stock", if the product is completely sold and the stock is exhausted, or if the person in charge of ordering has forgotten to place an order for the product, the manufacturer may run out of stock or shipping troubles for the product, or Can happen if a person forgets to display the item.

  FIG. 3 is an explanatory view showing an example of a method of calculating the opportunity loss. For example, there are three products classified into the product category "Onigiri" sold in the time zone identified by the time zone ID "0" on a certain day (product A, product B and product C). It is assumed that you are out of stock only. Assuming that the average number of sales of the past products A sold in the time zone identified by the time zone ID “0” is 3.0, the opportunity loss at that time is calculated to be 3.0.

  On the other hand, it is known that a customer substitutes another product if one product is out of stock. Hereinafter, such a phenomenon is referred to as a demand shift. For example, as illustrated in FIG. 2B, a plurality of product sets (for example, single product A (single product A), single product B (single product B)) are classified into a certain classification α. Here, when the single item A is out of stock, the customer may purchase the single item B instead.

  In this case, it can be said that a simple opportunity loss has not occurred since the shortage of the single item A leads to the purchase of the single item B in the entire store. In the following description, a phenomenon in which a demand shift occurs in a certain product set (in the same category) is referred to as a single item demand shift. In addition, a phenomenon in which a single product demand shift does not occur and a customer leaves the store without a substitute purchase due to a shortage of a single product A is referred to as a complete opportunity loss.

  For example, when only the opportunity loss of the product A alone is considered due to the shortage of the product A illustrated in FIG. 3, the opportunity loss is calculated to be 3.0. However, if the sales of the product C are increased by one instead due to the shortage of the product A, it is possible to judge that the complete opportunity loss is 2.0 rice balls for the whole store. In this embodiment, the opportunity loss is thus calculated in units of product sets.

  The storage unit 11 stores the number of demands for each product set including a plurality of products in association with each period. The length of the period associated here is arbitrary. This period may be, for example, one day divided into a fixed time zone, or one year divided into months, days, etc. The number of demands is, for example, the average number of sales of the product, which is calculated from past performance data and stored in advance in the storage unit 11. The storage unit 11 is realized by, for example, a magnetic disk or the like.

  Furthermore, the storage unit 11 is, for each set of products, the number of demands when the products included in the set of products are not out of stock, and one or more of the products included in the set of products are out of stock. Differentiate the number of demand when it was stored. In the following description, the number of demand when the product included in the product set is not out of stock is referred to as the number of unstocked demand, and the number of demand when the product set included in the product set is out of stock Note that there is a shortage of parts and the number of demand. In the following description, the product set for which the opportunity loss is calculated is referred to as a target product set.

  The item set can include a plurality of arbitrary items. In addition, in order to calculate the opportunity loss as the whole store appropriately, it is preferable to define a product group that can be a candidate of an option when one product is out of stock as a product set. As an example of the product set, a set of products of the same type or the same category (for example, a plurality of types of rice balls, beverages, etc.) can be mentioned.

  In addition, the storage unit 11 may store the number of out-of-stock requests for each period according to the pattern of out-of-stock products included in the product set. The pattern of product shortages included in the product set can be considered as two multipliers of the number of products, considering the presence or absence of the products. However, it is preferable that the number of patterns is not too large so that the number of demands for each pattern can be calculated more reliably from past actual data. The storage unit 11 may store, for example, the number of demands for each period according to the pattern of shortages of products whose number of sales is high among the set of products. For example, in the case of the pattern of the presence or absence of the top three products, the number of demand for each period is eight patterns.

  FIG. 4 is an explanatory view showing an example of the number of demands stored in the storage unit 11. In the example illustrated in FIG. 4, the storage unit 11 stores the number of demand (sales number average value) for each time slot according to the stock presence / absence (lack of stock) pattern of the top three products (main products) Indicates For example, pattern 7 indicates that the first-ranked product is out of stock, and the second-ranked product and the third-ranked product are in stock.

  In other words, the pattern of product shortage included in the target product set means that the product included in the product set is not out of stock, or one or more products included in the product set are missing It can be said that the information indicates the state of the product. Then, “the number of demand according to the pattern” is assumed to be obtained if the demand shift is taken into consideration even if some products are temporarily out of stock in the target product set in the state indicated by the pattern Mean the number of demand.

  In addition, it is considered that the demand number is maximized in a state where all the products included in the target product set exist (that is, a state in which the products included in the product set are not out of stock). Therefore, in the present embodiment, the number of demands when the products included in the target product set are not out of stock (the number of unstocked needs) and the number of products included in the target product set are missing The opportunity loss is calculated based on the number of demand (the number of demand with a shortage) when the product is out of stock.

  The opportunity loss calculation unit 12 calculates the opportunity loss of the target product set in the product shortage period based on the number of unstocked demand and the number of demand in the corresponding period stored in the storage unit 11. Specifically, the opportunity loss calculation unit 12 calculates the difference between the number of out-of-stock demand and the number of out-of-stock demand as the opportunity loss of the target product set.

  In addition, when the storage unit 11 stores the number of out-of-stock items for each period according to the pattern of out-of-stocks, the opportunity loss calculation unit 12 does not have out-of-stock in the period for calculating the opportunity loss of the target product set The difference between the number of demands and the number of out-of-stock requests for which the pattern of product shortages in that period coincide may be calculated as the opportunity loss of the target product set.

  FIG. 5 is an explanatory view showing an example of a process of calculating an opportunity loss. Table T1 illustrated in FIG. 5 is the result data of the products belonging to the product category "rice ball" on the date "YY / MM / DD" of the store identified by the store CD "001". In FIG. 5, the performance data of the time slot | zone identified by time slot | zone ID "0" is shown. Moreover, Table T2 illustrated in FIG. 5 shows the pattern of the presence or absence (out-of-stock) of goods. The example shown in FIG. 5 corresponds to Pattern 7 because the main product of the first place is out of stock and the main product of the second main product and the main product of the third main product are in stock as shown in Table T1. The state in which all the products are in stock corresponds to pattern 8.

  Moreover, Table T3 illustrated in FIG. 5 shows the number of demands for each period according to the pattern. In the example shown in FIG. 5, the average number of sales of pattern 7 in the time zone identified by time zone "0" is 8.0 (pieces), and the average number of sales of pattern 8 is 9.0 (pieces) It is.

  Therefore, the opportunity loss calculation unit 12 calculates the opportunity loss of the target product set in the period when the product is out of stock (that is, the time zone identified by the time zone “0”) Calculated as the difference between .0 (pieces) and the number of missing parts (9.0 pieces). Here, the difference is calculated to be one. The opportunity loss calculation unit 12 sets the calculated value as the opportunity loss of the target product set, as exemplified in the table T3.

  The correction unit 13 corrects the sales of the target product set in a period when a certain product is out of stock using the calculated opportunity loss. Specifically, the correction unit 13 adds the calculated opportunity loss to the sales of the target product set.

  FIG. 6 is an explanatory view showing an example of a process of correcting sales. Table T4 illustrated in FIG. 6 illustrates data before correction due to opportunity loss, and table T5 illustrated in FIG. 6 illustrates data after correction using opportunity loss. For example, in the example illustrated in FIG. 5, the opportunity loss of pattern 7 is calculated as one in the onigiri category that is the target product set. Therefore, the correction unit 13 performs correction to add this opportunity loss (one) to the number of sales, which is the sales of the entire onigiri category of the corresponding time zone.

  By performing such correction, it becomes possible for the learning unit 14 described later to learn a prediction model in consideration of the opportunity loss.

  The learning unit 14 performs learning using data including the corrected sales, and creates a demand forecast model of the target product set. The learning method is arbitrary, and a widely known general method may be used.

  The prediction unit 15 predicts the demand of the target product set using the created demand forecasting model. For example, when the target product set is a rice ball, the prediction unit 15 predicts the demand for the entire rice ball. Moreover, the prediction unit 15 may calculate the demand forecast of each product included in the target product set based on the prediction result. For example, when the sales number average value of each product in the past fixed period is calculated, the prediction unit 15 calculates the forecasted result (the number of demands) calculated according to the ratio of the sales number average value of each product. You may

  The opportunity loss calculation unit 12, the correction unit 13, the learning unit 14, and the prediction unit 15 are realized by the CPU of a computer that operates according to a program (an opportunity loss calculation program). For example, the program may be stored in the storage unit 11, and the CPU may read the program and operate as the opportunity loss calculation unit 12, the correction unit 13, the learning unit 14, and the prediction unit 15 according to the program. In addition, the function of the opportunity loss calculation system 10 may be provided in a software as a service (SaaS) format.

  Further, each of the opportunity loss calculation unit 12, the correction unit 13, the learning unit 14, and the prediction unit 15 may be realized by dedicated hardware. In addition, part or all of each component of each device may be realized by a general purpose or dedicated circuit, a processor, or the like, or a combination thereof. These may be configured by a single chip or may be configured by a plurality of chips connected via a bus. A part or all of each component of each device may be realized by a combination of the above-described circuits and the like and a program.

  Further, in the case where a part or all of each component of each device is realized by a plurality of information processing devices, circuits, etc., the plurality of information processing devices, circuits, etc. may be arranged centrally. It may be done. For example, the information processing apparatus, the circuit, and the like may be realized as a form in which each is connected via a communication network, such as a client and server system, a cloud computing system, and the like.

  Next, an operation example of the opportunity loss calculation system of the present embodiment will be described. FIG. 7 is a flow chart showing an operation example of the opportunity loss calculation system of this embodiment. Here, it is assumed that the opportunity loss of sales of a set of products in a period when a certain product is out of stock is calculated. The opportunity loss calculation unit 12 specifies the number of out-of-stock requests and the number of out-of-stock requests corresponding to the period for calculating the opportunity loss from the storage unit 11 (step S11). In the case where the storage unit 11 stores the number of out-of-stock items for each period according to the pattern of out-of-stock items, the opportunity loss calculation unit 12 detects out-of-stock items whose pattern of out-of-stock items in the corresponding period matches. The number of demand can be identified.

  Then, the opportunity loss calculation unit 12 calculates the opportunity loss of the target product set for the period based on the identified number of missing goods and the number of missing goods that have been identified (step S12). The opportunity loss calculation unit 12 may calculate, for example, the difference between the number of unstocked demand and the number of unstocked demand as the opportunity loss of the target product set.

  The correction unit 13 corrects the sales of the target product set using the calculated opportunity loss (step S13). The learning unit 14 performs learning using the corrected data, and creates a demand forecasting model of the target product set (step S14). The prediction unit 15 predicts the demand of the target commodity set using the created demand forecasting model (step S15).

  As described above, in the present embodiment, the opportunity loss calculation unit 12 stores the opportunity loss from the storage unit 11 that stores the number of unstocked demand and the number of unstocked demand for each target product set in association with each period. The number of out-of-stock demand and the number of out-of-stock demand corresponding to the period to be calculated are specified, and the opportunity loss of the target product set is calculated based on the specified out-of-stock and out-of-stock demand. Therefore, the opportunity loss as the whole store can be calculated more appropriately.

  That is, in this embodiment, the opportunity loss of the entire store is more appropriately calculated because the opportunity loss is calculated for each set of products where it is assumed that a demand shift will occur, instead of calculating the opportunity loss of each product. It can be calculated.

Embodiment 2
Next, a second embodiment of the opportunity loss calculation system of the present invention will be described. The configuration of the opportunity loss calculation system of the present embodiment is the same as that of the first embodiment. In the present embodiment, the opportunity loss is calculated in consideration of a situation where a demand shift occurs not only to the single item demand shift but also to a product set different from the product set to be classified (ie, a product set different in type and category).

  FIG. 8 is an explanatory view showing an example of a situation where a demand shift occurs to another product set. In FIG. 8, a set of products belonging to the classification α is a product set α, and a collection of products classified separately from the classification α is a product set β.

  Similar to the case illustrated in FIG. 2, it is assumed that a plurality of products (for example, single product A (single product A) and single product B (single product B)) are classified into a certain classification α. Here, when the single item A is out of stock, the customer may purchase the single item B instead. In addition, the customer may purchase a single item C (single item C) classified into another category β, not a commodity classified into the same category α. In addition, since a product set can be said to be a set of products classified in some category, in the following description, a phenomenon in which a demand shift occurs across a certain product set is referred to as a category demand shift.

  The storage unit 11 stores the same demand number as that of the first embodiment. Furthermore, the storage unit 11 of the present embodiment associates and stores the demand numbers of other product sets when the products included in the target product set are not out of stock. Hereinafter, this demand number is referred to as the first demand number. In addition, the storage unit 11 associates and stores the demand numbers of the other product sets when the products included in the target product set are out of stock. Hereinafter, this demand is referred to as the second demand.

  In the case where the storage unit 11 stores the number of out-of-stock items for each period according to the pattern of out-of-stock items, the storage unit 11 indicates that the out-of-stock state of the target product set is indicated by the out-of-stock pattern. The demand numbers of other product sets may be stored in association with one another.

  FIG. 9 is an explanatory view showing another example of the demand number stored in the storage unit 11. The example illustrated in FIG. 9 indicates that the storage unit 11 stores, as a performance value, a sales number average value of a product set (classification β) different from the target product set. Here, the storage unit 11 stores, for each of the patterns (1 to 8) of the target product set, the sales number average value of the class β in the case of the pattern in association with one another. For example, when the product pattern of the target product set is 7 in the time zone identified by the time zone ID “0”, the average number of sales of classification β is 1.1.

  The opportunity loss calculation unit 12 calculates the opportunity loss for each product set as in the first embodiment. At this time, in the present embodiment, the opportunity loss calculation unit 12 corrects the opportunity loss of the target product set by subtracting the quantity in which the category demand shift has occurred from the opportunity loss of the target product set.

  Specifically, the opportunity loss calculation unit 12 calculates the opportunity loss in consideration of the single product demand shift, using the method described in the first embodiment. Furthermore, the opportunity loss calculation unit 12 includes the number of demands of other product sets (ie, the number of first demands) when the products included in the target product set are not out of stock, and is included in the target product set. The difference between the demand numbers of the other product sets (that is, the second demand numbers) when the current product is out of stock is calculated. Then, the opportunity loss calculation unit 12 corrects the difference between the first demand number and the second demand number from the opportunity loss of the target product set.

  FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram of an example of processing for calculating the category demand shift. The product pattern illustrated in FIG. 10 is assumed to indicate the product pattern in FIG. 4. Here, it is assumed that the product pattern of the target product set is seven.

  The opportunity loss calculation unit 12 calculates the number of demand (8.0 pieces) of the target product set in the case of the product pattern 7 and the number of demand (9 parts) in the case where all the products exist in the target product set (pattern 8). ) And the difference between them and 1.0). In addition, the opportunity loss calculation unit 12 copes with the demand number 1.1 (second demand number) of the category β in the case of the product pattern 7 of the target product set and the pattern (pattern 8) in which all the products exist. The difference with the demand number of 1.0 (the first demand number) of the classification β is calculated as 0.1 as the category demand shift.

  Then, the opportunity loss calculation unit 12 subtracts the difference (0.1 pieces) calculated based on the other product set from the difference (1.0 pieces) calculated based on the target product set to obtain an opportunity loss. Modify the to 0.9.

  Moreover, although this embodiment demonstrated the case where one other goods set was one, two or more other goods sets may exist. In that case, the opportunity loss calculation unit 12 calculates the difference between the first demand number and the second demand number for each of the other product sets, and corrects the sum of the calculated differences to reduce it from the opportunity loss of the target product set. May be

  The opportunity loss calculation unit 12 corrects the opportunity loss only when the difference (or the sum thereof) between the first demand number and the second demand number is smaller than the opportunity loss of the target product set. May be

  Further, although the method of subtracting the category demand shift from the opportunity loss of the target product set is illustrated in this embodiment, a predetermined correction may be performed on the category demand shift. The opportunity loss calculation unit 12 may use, for example, the value of the category demand shift standardized based on the price of the product of the target product set and the price of the product of another product set. In addition, when there are a plurality of other product sets, the opportunity loss calculation unit 12 may determine whether to correct the category demand shift, based on a constraint that determines whether to apply or not to apply.

  Hereinafter, an example of the category demand shift will be described by showing a specific example. For example, it is assumed that there are seven types of products to be sold: rice balls, sugar beets, confectionery bread, sandwiches, lunch boxes, pasta and fried noodles. When products are classified according to types, when there is a relationship of so-called cannibalization among rice balls, sugar beets, confectionery bread and sandwiches, the opportunity loss calculating unit 12 divides these items when calculating the opportunity loss of rice balls. The category demand shift that occurs between may be used to correct the opportunity loss.

  On the other hand, when there is no clear relation of cannibalization between the lunch box, the pasta and the chow mein, and the rice ball, the opportunity loss calculating unit 12 calculates the category loss of the rice ball when the category demand occurs among these categories. The shift may not be used to correct the opportunity loss.

  Next, the operation of the opportunity loss calculation system of this embodiment will be described. FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing an operation example of the opportunity loss calculation system of the present embodiment. Note that the process until calculating the opportunity loss of the target product is the same as step S11 and step S12 in the flowchart of FIG. 7.

  The opportunity loss calculation unit 12 calculates the category demand shift and corrects the opportunity loss (step S21). The correction unit 13 corrects the demand number of the target product set using the corrected opportunity loss (step S22). Subsequently, the process in which the learning unit 14 creates a prediction model and predicts the demand for the target product set is the same as steps S14 and S15 in the flowchart of FIG. 7.

  As described above, in the present embodiment, the opportunity loss calculation unit 12 corrects the opportunity loss using the category demand shift. Therefore, the opportunity loss as the whole store can be calculated more appropriately.

  Next, an outline of the present invention will be described. FIG. 12 is a block diagram showing an overview of the opportunity loss calculation system according to the present invention. In the opportunity loss calculation system 80 according to the present invention, for each target product set including a plurality of products, the number without demand which is the number of demand when the products included in the target product set are not out of stock A storage unit 81 (for example, the storage unit 11) that stores the number of shortages, which is the number of demand when one or more products included in the target product set are out of stock, in association with each period And an opportunity to calculate the opportunity loss of the target product set including the product in a period when a product is out of stock based on the number of unstocked demand and the number of outstocked demand in the corresponding period stored in the storage unit 81 And a loss calculating unit 82 (for example, an opportunity loss calculating unit 12).

  Such a configuration makes it possible to more appropriately calculate the opportunity loss of the entire store.

  Specifically, the opportunity loss calculation unit 82 may calculate the difference between the number of out-of-stock demand and the number of out-of-stock demand as the opportunity loss of the target product set.

  In addition, the storage unit 81 may store the number of out-of-stock requests for each period according to the pattern of out-of-stock products included in the target product set. Then, the opportunity loss calculating unit 82 calculates the number of missing goods demand stored in the storage unit 81 in the period for calculating the opportunity loss of the target product set, and the number of missing goods demand for the target product set whose pattern of shortage matches. The opportunity loss may be calculated based on

  With such a configuration, it is possible to calculate a more accurate opportunity loss according to the product shortage pattern.

  In addition, the storage unit 81 has the first demand number, which is the demand number of other product sets when the products included in the target product set are not out of stock, and the products included in the target product set The second demand number, which is the demand number of the other commodity set when the product is out of stock, may be stored in association with each other. Then, the opportunity loss calculation unit 82 may perform correction to reduce the difference between the first demand number and the second demand number from the opportunity loss of the target product set.

  With such a configuration, the opportunity loss can be calculated in consideration of the demand shift (category demand shift) across the product set.

  In addition, the opportunity loss calculation system 80 includes a correction unit (for example, the correction unit 13) that corrects sales of a set of products including the product in a period when a product is out of stock based on the calculated opportunity loss. It is also good. In this case, the opportunity loss calculation system 80 may include a learning unit (for example, the learning unit 14) that learns a model for predicting the number of demands of the target product set based on the corrected sales.

  The target product set may be, for example, a set of products of the same type.

  Some or all of the above embodiments may be described as in the following appendices, but is not limited to the following.

(Supplementary Note 1) For each target product set including a plurality of products, the number of demand without a shortage is the number of demand when the product included in the target product set is not out of stock and included in the target product set A storage unit that stores the number of shortages, which is the number of demand when one or more items are out of stock, in association with each period, and the products in the period when a certain item is out of stock An opportunity loss calculation unit is provided for calculating the opportunity loss of the target product set based on the number of unstocked demand and the number of unstocked demand in the corresponding period stored in the storage unit. Opportunity loss calculation system.

(Supplementary Note 2) The opportunity loss calculating system according to Supplementary Note 1, wherein the opportunity loss calculating unit calculates a difference between the number of out-of-stock demand and the number of out-of-stock demand as the opportunity loss of the target product set.

(Supplementary Note 3) The storage unit stores the number of out-of-stock demand for each period according to the pattern of the product shortage included in the target product set, and the opportunity loss calculation unit stores the target commodity stored in the storage unit. The opportunity described in Appendix 1 or 2, wherein the opportunity loss is calculated on the basis of the number of unstocked demand during the period of calculating the opportunity loss of the set and the number of unstocked demand of the target product set for which the pattern of the shortage matches. Loss calculation system.

(Supplementary Note 4) The storage unit stores the first demand number, which is the demand number of the other product set when the product included in the target product set is not out of stock, and the product included in the target product set The second demand number, which is the demand number of the other product set when the item was out of stock, is stored in association with each other, and the opportunity loss calculating unit stores the difference between the first demand number and the second demand number. The opportunity loss calculation system according to any one of appendices 1 to 3, wherein correction is performed to reduce the opportunity loss of the target product set.

(Supplementary note 5) In any one of supplementary notes 1 to 4, further including a correction unit that corrects sales of a product set including the product in a period when a product is out of stock based on the calculated opportunity loss. Description of opportunity loss calculation system.

(Supplementary Note 6) The opportunity loss calculation system according to Supplementary Note 5, further comprising: a learning unit that learns a model for predicting the number of demands of the target product set based on the corrected sales.

(Supplementary note 7) The opportunity loss calculation system according to any one of supplementary notes 1 to 6, wherein the target merchandise set is a set of merchandise of the same type.

(Supplementary Note 8) For each target product set including a plurality of products, the number of unstocked demand, which is the number of demand when the product included in the target product set is not missing, is included in the target product set If there is an out-of-stock condition, which is the number of demand when one or more items are out-of-stock, the above-mentioned out-of-stock condition corresponding to the time period for calculating opportunity loss from the storage unit The opportunity loss calculation is characterized by specifying the number and the number of demand without shortage and calculating the opportunity loss of the target product set for the period based on the specified number of demand without shortage and the number of demand with shortage. Method.

(Supplementary note 9) The opportunity loss calculation method according to supplementary note 8, wherein a difference between the number of out-of-stock demand and the number of out-of-stock demand is calculated as the opportunity loss of the target product set.

(Supplementary note 10) The number of demand without stock which is the number of demand when the product included in the target product set is not out of stock for each target product set including a plurality of products in the computer and the target product set From the storage unit that stores the number of demand which is the number of demand when one or more items included in the product are out of stock in association with each period, the above-mentioned shortage corresponding to the period for calculating the opportunity loss Calculation to calculate the opportunity loss of the target product set for the period based on the specified processing for specifying the number of demand with goods and the number of demand without shortage and the specified number of demand and absence of stock shortage Opportunity loss calculation program to execute processing.

(Supplementary note 11) The opportunity loss calculation program according to supplementary note 10, causing the computer to calculate the difference between the number of out-of-stock demand and the number of out-of-stock demand in the calculation process as the opportunity loss of the target product set.

  As mentioned above, although this invention was demonstrated with reference to embodiment and an Example, this invention is not limited to the said embodiment and Example. The configurations and details of the present invention can be modified in various ways that can be understood by those skilled in the art within the scope of the present invention.

  This application claims priority based on Japanese Patent Application No. 2016-135974 filed on July 8, 2016, the entire disclosure of which is incorporated herein.

10 opportunity loss calculation system 11 storage unit 12 opportunity loss calculation unit 13 correction unit 14 learning unit 15 prediction unit 80 opportunity loss calculation system 81 storage unit 82 opportunity loss calculation unit

Claims (11)

For each target product set including a plurality of products, the number of demand without shortage which is the number of demand when the product included in the target product set is not out of stock, and the products included in the target product set A storage unit that stores the number of shortages, which is the number of demand when one or more were out of stock, in association with each period;
Opportunity to calculate the opportunity loss of the target product set including the product in a period when a product is out of stock based on the number of demand without stock and the number of demand with stock in the corresponding period stored in the storage unit An opportunity loss calculation system characterized by including a loss calculation unit. The opportunity loss calculation system according to claim 1, wherein the opportunity loss calculation unit calculates a difference between the number of out-of-stock demand and the number of out-of-stock demand as the opportunity loss of the target product set. The storage unit stores the number of out-of-stock requests for each period according to the pattern of out-of-stock products included in the target product set,
The opportunity loss calculating unit is configured to calculate the number of unstocked demand in the period for calculating the opportunity loss of the target product set stored in the storage unit, and the number of unstocked demand of the target product set whose pattern of the shortage matches. The opportunity loss calculation system according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the opportunity loss is calculated based on the above. The storage unit is out of stock for the first demand number, which is the demand number of other product sets when the products included in the target product set are not out of stock, and the products included in the target product set Store the second demand number, which is the demand number of the other product set at the time of
The opportunity loss calculation part performs correction which subtracts the difference of the said number of 1st demand and the said number of 2nd demand from the opportunity loss of an object goods set, The any one of the Claims 1-3. Loss calculation system. The correction | amendment part which correct | amends sales of the goods set which contains the said goods in the period which a certain goods ran out based on the calculated opportunity loss is provided in any one of the Claims 1-4. Opportunity loss calculation system. The opportunity loss calculation system according to claim 5, further comprising: a learning unit that learns a model that predicts the number of demands of the target product set based on the corrected sales. The opportunity loss calculation system according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein the target product set is a set of products of the same type. For each target product set including a plurality of products, the number of demand without shortage is the number of demand when the product included in the target product set is not out of stock, and the products included in the target product set are The number of out-of-stock requests and the out-of-stock corresponding to the period for calculating the opportunity loss from the storage unit that stores the out-of-stock demand, which is the number of demands when one or more out-of-stock items are stored Identify the number of goods without demand,
An opportunity loss calculating method, comprising: calculating opportunity loss of a target product set of the period based on the identified number of lacking stock requests and the number of missing stock requests. The opportunity loss calculation method according to claim 8, wherein the difference between the number of out-of-stock demand and the number of out-of-stock demand is calculated as the opportunity loss of the target product set. On the computer
For each target product set including a plurality of products, the number of demand without shortage is the number of demand when the product included in the target product set is not out of stock, and the products included in the target product set are The number of out-of-stock requests and the out-of-stock corresponding to the period for calculating the opportunity loss from the storage unit that stores the out-of-stock demand, which is the number of demands when one or more out-of-stock items are stored Specific process to identify the number of demand without product, and
An opportunity loss calculation program for executing a calculation process of calculating an opportunity loss of a target product set in the period based on the identified number of missing goods and the number of missing goods. On the computer
The opportunity loss calculation program according to claim 10, wherein the difference between the number of out-of-stock demand and the number of out-of-stock demand is calculated as the opportunity loss of the target product set in the calculation processing.

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