JPH11282913A - Individual travel information presentation system - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a technique capable of individually providing highly accurate travel prediction information based on the operation condition of a travel means and opening and transmitting it corresponding to a request. SOLUTION: A travel prediction system for performing travel prediction, this individual travel information presentation system for presenting individual travel information, an individual travel information opening system for opening the individual travel information and an individual travel information transmission system for transmitting the individual travel information are provided. The travel prediction system is constituted of an operation management system 200 for managing the operation of the travel means 100, a prediction processing system 300 for performing the travel prediction for individual travelers based on information from the operation management system 200 and a travel information input device 400 for providing the travel schedule information of the individual travelers to the prediction processing system 300 as prediction object information.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a system for providing information relating to prediction of the operation of a passenger transportation, and more particularly, to a system for providing information on the prediction of operation of a passenger transportation.
The present invention relates to an individual travel information presentation system for presenting operation prediction information of travel means for each individual traveler.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art In general, in passenger guidance in passenger transportation, each traveler who seeks guidance is given the following information:
It is required to provide information such as what kind of travel situation is currently (travel situation), what kind of travel prospect will be in the future, and what will be the trip to the final destination (travel forecast). In addition, in consideration of convenience such as meeting, pick-up, and the like, it is required that the travel status information and the travel prediction information be provided to other travelers and persons other than the travelers.

[0003] Therefore, in the passenger guide, information about the travel situation and travel prediction of each traveler can be easily known by each traveler, other travelers, or anyone other than the other travelers. It is necessary to be in a state to gain.

[0004] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 9-58475 discloses a technique for predicting the operating status of a travel means such as a train after a certain point in time when a delay occurs. That is, the running pattern (arrival time or departure time of a certain station) and the driving pattern (stop,
Alternatively, there is a method of adding a travel time and a stop time for each passing) to obtain a predicted train schedule (arrival time or departure time of a certain station) and a device therefor.
As a technique for providing individual passenger guidance information, as disclosed in Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 7-93613, a method of printing the current operation status of a train stored in a ticket on the ticket is described. , And devices for it.

In general, as means for providing passenger guide information in travel means such as railways, there are the following methods and devices. That is, as a method of providing information common to all travelers, there is a method of providing train guidance information by train time order and area using, for example, a passenger information board, a station premises broadcast, or the like. As a method provided only in facilities related to travel means, for example, there is a method provided in a station yard, a travel window, and the like. Also,
As a method of providing information based on information held in advance, such as an operation schedule, for example, there is a method of providing passenger guidance information according to timetable information.

[0006]

However, in the above prior art, firstly, it is necessary to obtain a travel prediction, and secondly, each traveler, other travelers, or other than the other travelers. There are the following problems for those who obtain travel information.

<About obtaining travel prediction> Does not take into account changes in operation plans For example, in the case of railways, when train operation is disrupted due to delays, etc., the operation schedule (operation plan information) is changed to quickly disturb the train operation. Recovery measures (driving arrangements) are taken. However, in the above-described conventional technology, changes in the operation plan information are not considered, and as a result, the prediction does not match the actual situation.

[0008] 2. No consideration is given to the deterioration / recovery tendency of the operating status of the travel means. For example, in a railway, the delay of a train may increase or decrease depending on the cause of the delay of the train. However, in the above-described conventional technology, the prediction is performed based on a certain standard operation irrespective of the tendency to increase or decrease the delay. As a result, the prediction does not match the actual situation.

3. Does not consider the degree of implementation (room for implementation) of the operation disturbance recovery measures For example, in the case of railways, it may be possible to recover the operation disturbance more by further implementing traffic rescheduling. However, in the above-described related art, since the operation turbulence recovery room due to the traffic rescheduling is not taken into account, the prediction does not match the actual situation.

As described above, in the prior art, since information on the current operating condition is not provided in a timely manner, a determination based on a correct operating condition is made, and an appropriate operation prediction cannot be obtained. There is.

<Each traveler, another traveler, or a person other than another traveler obtains travel information> For example, in a railway, each traveler selects a desired train from among a plurality of trains operated, and selects a desired boarding section to travel. And, in some cases,
In some cases, the passenger may travel by connecting a plurality of desired trains. However, in the above-described conventional technology, only the passenger guide information common to all travelers is provided. Therefore, each seeks and obtains the operation status information of a desired train from a plurality of pieces of information,
And in some cases, they must be combined to infer a trip to their final destination.

5. When another person receives travel information for a certain traveler, the location, timing, and the like are limited. For example, in a railway, it is possible to inquire of a station or the like for information common to all travelers. However, it is not possible to inquire about individual information of travelers. Therefore, each traveler has no choice but to contact others. Nevertheless, there is a problem as described in 4 above regarding each traveler obtaining individual travel information.

As described above, there is a problem that it is not easy for the traveler himself or another person to obtain the travel prediction information corresponding to the travel plan of each traveler.

[0014] A first object of the present invention is to provide a technique capable of providing highly accurate travel prediction information based on the operation status of travel means.

[0015] A second object of the present invention is to provide a technique capable of presenting travel prediction information corresponding to a travel plan for each traveler.

[0016] A third object of the present invention is to provide a technique capable of disclosing travel prediction information individually for each traveler on demand or transmitting the information to a designated destination.

[0017]

Means for Solving the Problems The present inventors propose the following solution as a technique for achieving the first object described above.

First, information on physical characteristics relating to the prediction target and information on operational characteristics are obtained. Next, information on physical characteristics and information on operational characteristics are added to the operation result information to be predicted and calculated (for example,
By adding the time of travel between stations and the time of stop at a station to the actual arrival time of a certain train at a certain station to obtain the arrival time of a certain station, the first prediction is made. Ask for information. In addition, the operation plan information to be predicted includes information on physical characteristics,
And, the information of the characteristics of the operation is accumulated and calculated (for example, the time of travel between stations, the time of stop at the station is added to the planned arrival time of a certain train at a certain station, Second arrival information is obtained by setting the arrival time at a certain station. Next, the first prediction information and the second prediction information are compared and determined. Then, the judgment result is used as final prediction information.
Thereby, a travel prediction result based on the status of the travel means, the operation results of the travel means, and the operation plan of the travel means is obtained.

As a first mode according to the solution for achieving the above-mentioned first object, in a method for predicting the operation of a travel means, physical property information, The operation result obtained by adding the operation characteristic information is used as first operation prediction information, and the operation result obtained by adding the physical characteristic information and the operation characteristic information is obtained based on the operation plan information of the travel means. There is an operation prediction method for travel means, characterized in that a result of comparing and judging the first operation prediction information and the second operation prediction information is output as travel prediction information as the second operation prediction information.

According to a second aspect of the present invention, there is provided a system for predicting the operation of a travel means, a means for inputting actual operation information of the travel means, an operation plan of the travel means. A means for inputting information, a means for inputting physical characteristic information, a means for inputting operational characteristic information, and an operation between operation performance information, physical characteristic information, and operational characteristic information Means for outputting first operation prediction information by performing the operation, and means for performing operation between operation plan information, physical characteristic information, and operational characteristic information to output second operation prediction information. A means for comparing and judging the first operation prediction information and the second operation prediction information and outputting the travel prediction information.

As a technique for achieving the second object, the following solution is proposed.

In this method, individual travel schedule information is acquired for each traveler. For example, individual travel schedule information is stored in an appropriate storage medium, and is read out to acquire individual travel schedule information for each traveler. Typically, it is conceivable that this type of information is written in a ticket or the like, and is obtained by machine reading.

The first embodiment to which the solution of the second object is applied.
As a mode of the present invention, in a method of presenting travel prediction information of a travel means individually for each traveler, for travel schedule information of each traveler, physical property information based on travel actual operation information of the travel means related to the schedule information, The operation result obtained by adding the characteristic information on the operation is used as first operation prediction information, and physical characteristic information is obtained for the travel schedule information of each traveler based on the operation plan information of the travel means related to the plan information. ,and,
The calculation result obtained by adding the operation characteristic information is used as second operation prediction information, and the result of comparing and judging the first operation prediction information and the second operation prediction information is output as travel prediction information. An individual travel information presentation method is provided.

As a second mode to which the technique for achieving the second object is applied, in an individual travel information presentation system for presenting travel prediction information of travel means individually for each traveler, a travel schedule information for each traveler is provided. Means for inputting physical property information and operational property information based on the operation result information of the travel means relating to the inputted schedule information to obtain first operation prediction information. , Based on the travel plan operation information related to the entered schedule information,
Means for obtaining second operation prediction information by adding physical characteristic information and operational characteristic information, and comparing the first operation prediction information and the second operation prediction information with the travel prediction information. Means for presenting as an individual travel information.

The following method is proposed as a technique for achieving the third object.

First, a case where information is transmitted to a designated destination will be described. In this case, for each traveler, a storage medium that holds information on the travel status and the destination of the travel prediction together with the travel schedule information is prepared. From this storage medium,
It reads travel schedule information, generates travel prediction information, and transmits the travel prediction information and the like to the transmission destination read from the storage medium.

Second, a case will be described in which the individual travel forecast information is disclosed to the disclosure requester. For each traveler, a storage medium that holds travel schedule information and information indicating a disclosure destination permitted to disclose information is prepared.
From this storage medium, the travel schedule information is read out, travel prediction information is generated, and when disclosure of the travel prediction information is requested, it is determined whether or not the destination is the disclosure destination stored in the storage medium. If it is earlier, the travel destination information is presented to the disclosure destination as travel prediction information. The information to be transmitted and the information to be disclosed are not limited to travel reservation information. Other information, for example, the operation status of the travel means may be presented.

As a first mode to which this technique is applied, in an individual travel information presentation system for presenting travel prediction information of travel means individually for each traveler, the travel schedule information for each traveler and the corresponding travel schedule information are provided. Means for reading and inputting the information from the recording medium on which the information indicating the destination of the travel schedule information to be presented is recorded, and based on the operation result information of the travel means related to the input schedule information, the traveler And a means for transmitting the generated travel prediction information to the input destination.

Further, as a second aspect, in an individual travel information presentation system for presenting travel prediction information of travel means individually for each traveler, a travel schedule information corresponding to each traveler and a travel schedule corresponding to the travel schedule information are provided. Means for reading and inputting the information from the recording medium on which the information indicating the presentation destination of the information is recorded, and physical characteristic information based on the operation result information of the travel means related to the input schedule information, And means for obtaining first operation prediction information by adding operation characteristic information, and physical characteristic information based on operation plan information of travel means related to the input schedule information, and
Means for obtaining second operation prediction information by adding operation characteristic information, means for comparing and judging the first operation prediction information and second operation prediction information as travel prediction information, Means for transmitting the inputted travel prediction information to the input presentation destination.

Further, as a third aspect, in an individual travel information presentation system for presenting travel prediction information of travel means individually for each traveler, a travel schedule information corresponding to each traveler and a travel schedule corresponding to the travel schedule information are provided. A means for reading and inputting such information from a recording medium on which information indicating a disclosure destination permitted to disclose information is recorded, and based on the operation result information of the travel means related to the input schedule information. Means for generating travel prediction information for a travel schedule of a traveler; accepting a request for disclosure of the generated travel prediction information; determining whether the disclosure requester is the permitted disclosure destination; And a means for disclosing the travel prediction information.

Further, as a fourth aspect, in an individual travel information presentation system for presenting operation prediction information of travel means individually for each traveler, the travel schedule information for each individual traveler;
Means for reading out and inputting the information indicating the disclosure destination permitted to disclose the travel schedule information corresponding to the travel schedule information, and travel means relating to the input schedule information Means for obtaining first operation prediction information by adding physical characteristic information and operational characteristic information based on the operation result information of the above, and operation plan information of travel means related to the inputted schedule information. On the basis of this, the means for obtaining the second operation prediction information by adding physical characteristic information and operational characteristic information, and the result of comparing and judging the first operation prediction information and the second operation prediction information Means for outputting as travel prediction information, accepting a request for disclosure of the output travel prediction information, determining whether the disclosure requester is the permitted disclosure destination, and when the disclosure requester is the permitted disclosure destination, Travel forecast information There are individual travel information presentation system comprising: a means for disclosing.

The techniques corresponding to the above-mentioned respective objects can be used independently. Of course, the invention is not limited thereto, and they may be used in combination.

As a technique that can be applied in combination with each of the above-described modes, the prediction information can be corrected in order to further increase the accuracy. To do so, do the following:

First, with respect to the first and second prediction information described above, the transition of the operation results of the travel means (delay expansion / delay reduction)
The prediction information is corrected and calculated by weighting according to the tendency. Or, a comparison result of the past operation cases of the travel means and the current operation status (90% match with the situation delayed for the past 10 minutes,
, Etc.), and corrects the prediction information. Or, for the means of travel, change the situation, implementation rate of the measures (for example, there are 10 possible measures, and if all measures are implemented, the delay should recover by 10 minutes, and 9 points have been implemented to date, etc.) To calculate the correction of the prediction information.
Next, the first prediction information and the second prediction information after the correction calculation are compared and determined. Then, the judgment result is used as final prediction information. Thereby, a travel prediction result based on the status of the travel means, the operation results of the travel means, and the operation plan of the travel means is obtained. As described above, highly accurate travel prediction information based on the operation status of the travel means can be obtained.

As a technique for realizing this kind of solution, there is the following technique. These can be used alone or
They can be appropriately combined.

(1) The transition tendency of the operation results of the travel means is obtained, and the operation prediction information is corrected based on the tendency. (2) A comparison is made between the past operation case of the travel means and the current operation status, and the operation prediction information is corrected based on the matching degree between the past operation case and the current operation status. (3) For a measure for changing the operation status of the travel means, the prediction information is corrected based on the ratio of the implemented measure to all the possible measures.

In addition, the system can be made up of the following means alone or in combination with each other as components of the system. (1) means for determining the transition trend of the operation results of travel means;
Means for correcting the operation prediction information based on the obtained transition tendency. (2) A means for storing the past operation cases of the travel means and a comparison between the past operation cases of the travel means and the current operation status are performed, and based on the matching degree between the past operation cases and the current operation status,
Means for correcting the operation prediction information. (3) means for extracting feasible recovery measure information from plan information, means for extracting executed recovery measure information from past and current plan information, and recovery from executed recovery measure information and feasible recovery measure information The system includes a calculating means for obtaining an implementation ratio of a measure, a means for obtaining a weight for prediction correction based on the implementation ratio, and a means for correcting prediction information according to the weight.

[0038]

Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. First, an embodiment of an individual travel information providing system according to the present invention will be described.
The details of the system will be described in detail.

The individual travel information providing system according to the present embodiment, when a traveler uses travel means, individually travels to the traveler or a certain person who is permitted to receive information. This is a system that individually predicts travel information in order to provide information. This system is
As shown in FIG. 1, a travel prediction system 1 for performing travel prediction
The individual travel information presentation system 2 for presenting individual travel information, the individual travel information disclosure system 3 for disclosing individual travel information, and the individual travel information transmission system for transmitting individual travel information 4 are combined. All of these systems can be made complete, or some can be omitted. It can also be incorporated into other systems. For example, it may be built in an operation management system described later and function as a part thereof.

As shown in FIGS. 2 and 3, the travel prediction system 1 includes an operation management system 200 for managing the operation of the travel means 100, and individual travelers based on information from the operation management system 200. It is composed of a prediction processing system 300 that performs travel prediction, and a travel information input device 400 that provides the travel processing information of an individual traveler to the prediction processing system 300 as prediction target information.

Here, as shown in FIGS. 2 and 3, by connecting an output terminal 500 to the travel prediction system 1, an individual travel information presentation system 2 is configured.
FIG. 16 shows the functional configuration, and FIG. 3 shows a more specific system configuration.

Also, as shown in FIGS. 4 and 5, by connecting a disclosure processing system 600 to the travel prediction system 1, an individual travel information disclosure system capable of responding to a remote disclosure request. 3 are configured. FIG.
Shows a functional configuration of the travel prediction information disclosure system 3, and FIG. 5 shows a more specific system configuration.

Further, as shown in FIGS. 6 and 7, the travel prediction system 1 further includes a transmission processing system 70.
By connecting 0, an individual travel information transmission system 4 for sending necessary information is configured. FIG. 6 shows a functional configuration of the travel prediction information transmission system 4, and FIG. 7 shows a more specific system configuration.

For connection between the systems and between the components in each system, for example, a signal transmission medium such as a signal line, a bus, or a LAN which is suitable for the system is selected and used.

The travel means 100 means a means for moving between points. Specifically, the means of transportation include various means used for traveling, such as a railway line, an air line, a ship line, a bus line, a taxi, and walking.
However, here, the operation management system 100
It is an object that can be managed in. The terms of travel means include trains, aircraft, ships, buses, taxis, etc.
In some cases, it refers to a moving object used for movement, and a set thereof.

Although FIG. 1 shows only one type of travel means, it is needless to say that a plurality of travel means, for example, railway, air, bus and the like can be combined. At that time, there is an operation management system 200 corresponding to each travel means. In the following, for the sake of simplicity, it is assumed that only the railroad is used as the travel means 100, and the operation management system 200 is provided for managing the railroad operation. From the train control device 110 provided in the travel means 100, information such as the running result information of the train is transmitted to the operation management system 200 via the communication path 101.

The input device 400 reads travel schedule information (or travel plan information) from the travel information storage medium 450 storing travel schedule information, and provides it to the prediction processing system 300 via the signal line 401. Here, the travel schedule information refers to information for specifying travel means, travel range, travel date and time, etc., before using the travel means, such as seat designation information.

The output terminal 500 is constituted by a display device for displaying travel prediction information. For example, liquid crystal displays,
Devices such as CRT displays and LED displays are used. The output terminal 500 may be configured not only by a display but also by a small computer capable of performing input processing and the like. Output terminal 500
Outputs an output from the prediction processing system 300 to a signal line 301.
And displays it on the display screen 510 (see FIG. 3).

The disclosure processing system 600 is connected to a client terminal 800 via a communication path. The disclosure processing system 600 and the client terminal 800 perform bidirectional communication. That is, information can be sent from the client terminal 800 to the disclosure processing system 600. The transmission processing system 700 is connected to the receiving terminal 900 via a communication path. The travel prediction information is transmitted from the transmission processing system 700 to the receiving terminal 900. The communication path is, for example, a communication line such as a telephone and a facsimile,
The communication control device includes a modem, a TA, and the like. The communication line itself may be any of an analog line, a digital line, a mobile phone line, a PHS line, a terrestrial communication line, a satellite communication line, and the like. In addition, any of wireless and wired may be used.

Regarding various devices constituting the individual travel information providing system according to the present invention, any means for realizing the devices can be used. For example, various function realization circuit components realized by a relay circuit, a vacuum tube circuit, a transistor circuit, a CMOS circuit, an integrated circuit, and the like, and a control system that performs a specific process based on programming for the circuit components, and It can be realized by a program for that purpose.

Here, prior to a detailed description of the embodiments, terms used in this specification will be outlined in advance in order to facilitate understanding of the present invention.

"Travel means" is referred to as a type of travel method between points, such as a railway route, an air route, a ship route, a bus route, a taxi, and a walk. In particular, trains, aircraft, ships, buses, taxis, etc.
In some cases, it refers to a moving object used for movement, and a set thereof. “Operation management” refers to managing the operation of the above-mentioned “travel means”, such as, for example, railway control, air traffic control, and road control. "Operating information"
For example, the scheduled time such as the scheduled departure time, the halfway scheduled time, the scheduled arrival time, the actual departure time, the actual halfway time, the actual arrival time, etc. of the “travel means”, the difference between the scheduled time and the actual time, etc. Information for managing the operation of "travel means" is referred to as such. The “operation prediction” refers to, for example, predicting the future departure time, midway time, arrival time, etc. of the “travel means”.

The term "traveler" refers to a person who travels between points by the "travel means" and a group thereof. "Passenger information" refers to, for example, guide information for using the "travel means" such as a boarding place, departure time, and arrival time, or information of a result obtained by using the "travel means", and We refer to those sets. In particular, it may refer to the act of distributing such information. "Passenger information" is, for example,
Information for indicating the "passenger information", such as letters, numbers, symbols, codes, and voices, and a set thereof will be referred to. In particular, they may also refer to those contents.

The "operation status" refers to the operation status of the "travel means" such as, for example, the train departure time, the train arrival delay, and the train arrival time. The “operation status information” is, for example, information indicating the above “operation status” such as a character string, a numerical value, and a code.
The “plan” refers to the operation schedule information of the “travel means”, such as a timetable and a schedule, for example. However, it may indicate a change in the operation schedule information. The “actual result” refers to the operation history of the “travel means” such as, for example, the actual departure time of a certain train station, the departure delay time of a certain train station, and the “plan” and the actual operation time. Is referred to as such. “Physical characteristics” refers to physical conditions that determine the operation of the “travel means”, such as the maximum speed of a train, the maximum acceleration of a train, and the distance between stations, for example. "Operational characteristics" include, for example, when a train stops at a station,
This term refers to operational conditions that determine the operation of the "travel means", such as the time at which a passenger is confirmed to get off.

The "operation prediction" refers to an act of assuming a "travel situation" in the future, such as finding an arrival time in anticipation of a delay from the scheduled arrival time.
In some cases, it refers to the result of those actions. The “operation prediction information” refers to information representing the “operation prediction”, such as a character string, a code, a numerical value, and a number. In particular, it may refer to the contents of such information.

The "prediction target" refers to, for example, a train, a flight, a car, etc., which is a target of the "operation prediction" among the "travel means". The “prediction range” refers to the range of the “operation prediction” in the movement range of the “travel means”, for example, between stations, lines, routes, and the like.

"Presentation" refers to an act of presenting information to a target person using output means such as a speaker, a display, and a printer. "Disclosure"
For example, it refers to an act of receiving information managed in another device to its own device using information transmission means such as telephone, wireless, and network communication. "Transmission" refers to the act of sending and receiving information using information transfer means, such as, for example, telephone, wireless, or network communications.
The “disclosure permitter” refers to information for specifying the recipient of the above “disclosure”, such as a name, a title, an ID, a telephone number, and an e-mail address. The “disclosure permitter information” refers to information for representing the “disclosure permitter”, such as characters, numbers, and codes.
In particular, it sometimes refers to the contents of such information. The “transmission destination” refers to information for specifying the receiving side of the “transmission”, such as a telephone number or an e-mail address, for example. Further, the “transmission destination information” means information for representing the above “transmission destination”, for example, characters, numbers, codes, and the like. In particular, it sometimes refers to the contents of such information.

"Travel" means "travel means"
The act of moving between certain points is referred to as such. “Travel information” refers to a use range of the above “travel means”, such as a boarding station, a drop-off station, a connecting station, a designated seat section, a boarding section, a connecting airport, and the like. Also, for example, it may refer to an expression form of travel information, such as letters, numbers, and codes.

“Recovery measures” include, for example, changing the order,
It refers to the work for changing the "plan" such as time change, suspension, temporary setting, etc., to restore the "travel means" to normal when the operation is disrupted, and the contents thereof. "Stacking" means, for example, that the arrival time of a certain arrival point is obtained by adding the required times of a plurality of intermediate sections to the departure time of a certain departure point, respectively.
This means that certain end-point information is obtained by adding a plurality of pieces of difference information to certain start-point information.

[0060] "Travel schedule information" means information for specifying travel means, travel range, travel date and time, etc. before using the travel means, such as seat designation information. . Next, the present embodiment will be described in more detail. FIG. 5 illustrates a travel prediction system, an individual travel information presentation system, and an individual travel information disclosure system. Therefore, these systems will first be described with reference to FIG.

In FIG. 5, a disclosure processing system 600 is provided in the individual travel information presentation system 2 shown in FIG.
The client terminal 800 is connected. The client terminal 800 includes a communication control device 602 and a communication control device 80
2 is connected to the disclosure processing system 600 via a communication path (network) 601/801.

The individual travel information presentation system 2 includes a travel information input device 400. This travel information input device 4
00 is composed of, for example, an IC card reader. On the other hand, the travel information storage medium 450 from which information is read by the travel information input device 400 is constituted by, for example, an IC card. Here, the travel information storage medium 450
Specifically, it is assumed that the ticket is used as a ticket and carried by a traveler. Then, the travel information input device 400
Assumes an automatic ticket gate that checks this ticket. In this way, when the traveler uses the travel means 100, the ticket passes through the automatic ticket gate, so that the in-card information 451 described later written on the ticket is not conscious of the traveler, and There is an advantage that reading can be performed reliably without requiring any special processing operation. In addition, by passing the card through the card reader, the traveler can obtain the travel status of each traveler, future travel predictions, and the traveller himself can obtain the travel predictions of a certain traveler. The authorized specific person can get in different places. The travel information storage medium 450 and the travel information input device 400 may be wirelessly communicated with each other so that the content of the storage medium is read by the travel information input device 400.

The IC card reader 1910 may be used separately from the ticket reader of the automatic ticket gate, and the display 1950 may be used separately from the display of the automatic ticket gate. In this case, sufficient time, capacity, and the like can be secured for reading the card and displaying on the display.

In addition, according to the present invention, in addition to this, the travel information storage medium 450 may be, for example, a punch card, a magnetic card,
It can be realized by a magneto-optical card, a memory card, a magnetic disk, a magneto-optical disk, an optical disk, or the like.
On the other hand, correspondingly, the travel information input device 400 is, for example, a punch card reader, a magnetic card reader, a magneto-optical card reader, a memory card reader, a magnetic disk drive, a magneto-optical disk drive, an optical disk drive,
It can be realized by a keyboard, a touch panel, a pen input device, and the like.

In this travel information storage medium 450, as card information 451, traveler information (Mr. A), ticket information (station 1 from station B to station C, train 2 from station C to station D, train 3 It is assumed that the information has permission-to-discloser information (Mr. F) as information indicating stations D to E) and disclosure destinations permitted to be disclosed. It is also assumed that the disclosure permitter information in the card information 451 matches the information specifying the user of the client terminal 800 (used by Mr. F). A password or the like may be used as information indicating a disclosure destination permitted to be disclosed.

Note that the travel information storage medium 450 may not function as a ticket in some cases. In this case, what is stored in the travel information storage medium 450 is
This means travel plan information or travel schedule information. The ticket information can be said to be information that embodies information on a travel plan or a travel schedule.

The above-mentioned travel plan information includes information such as date and time of use, flight number of travel means, departure point and arrival point. If there is more than one, a list is formed accordingly. As a travel means, a railway is shown, for example, as shown in FIG.

The operation management system 200 and the prediction processing system 300 constitute the prediction processing server 10. However, in the present embodiment, the operation management system 200 and the prediction processing system 300 are configured by separate hardware resources. That is, it is configured by an information processing device such as a control computer that can perform real-time control information processing. Of course, each system may be configured using the same hardware resources. The operation management system 20
0, for example, as shown in FIG.
And a configuration similar to the system configuration of the prediction processing system shown in FIG.

The operation management system 200 stores train operation plans and train operation results. FIG.
(B), FIG. 12 (c) and FIG. 12 (d), and
FIGS. 15A, 15B and 15C show examples of train operation plans and operation results. As can be seen from these figures, the operation plan can be a table of train diagrams. In the illustrated example, information such as a station name, a train number, an arrival time, and a departure time is recorded. The same applies to the operation results. The operation plan and the operation result are different in that the former is a plan determined in advance, while the latter reflects the actual operation state of the train, but the data format is common. Information on the train operation plan and operation results is stored in a built-in storage device. The operation results are obtained by storing information such as train operation result information from the train control device 110 by the operation management system 200 via the communication path 101 and storing the information.

The operation management system 200 is a train operation management system in the case of a train, but an air traffic control system, a ship traffic control system, a bus traffic control system, a taxi radio communication system in the case of other travel means. It can be realized by a system or the like.

The prediction processing system 300 is constituted by a computer as shown in FIG. That is, a processing device 3001, a storage device 3002 that stores programs and data executed by the processing device 3001, an input interface 3003, and an output interface 3004
And The input interface 3003 and the output interface 3004 are serial, parallel,
It is configured by a device that can control information input from an external device and information output to the external device, such as CSI and LAN. An input terminal 331 is provided. On the other hand, an output terminal 341 is provided. Further, the configuration itself of the computer is a general one, and a special structure need not be used.

The processing device 3001 is composed of a workstation having a processor and a memory, a personal computer, and the like. Specific circuit elements include, for example, transistor circuits, IC circuits, LSI circuits, and the like.

The storage device 3002 has, for example, an RA
It is configured by a device capable of storing information, such as an M, a ROM, and a magnetic storage device. This storage device 3002
The information stored in the storage area includes prediction target information (travel plan), operation management information (operation plan, operation results), physical characteristic information, operation characteristic information, case information, implemented recovery measure information, and the like. These are managed by the processing device 3001 for storing, searching, reading, and the like.

The prediction processing system 300 has a function as shown in FIG. That is, the prediction processing means 310,
Various management means 320-350 and 370 for taking in various information such as prediction target information and physical property information into the storage device 3002, storing and searching, etc., a recovery measure execution ratio calculation means 380, Result transition calculation means 360
It is composed of

The prediction target information management means 320 stores and manages the travel schedule information or the travel plan information read by the travel information input device 400.

In FIG. 12, (a) is a data structure of travel plan information, (b) is a data structure of operation plan information (initial state), (c) is a data structure of operation plan information (state after change), (D) shows the data structure of the operation result information, and (e) shows the data structure of the prediction information. 13, (f) and (g) show the data structure of physical property information,
(H), (i) and (j) respectively show the data structure of the operation characteristic information. In FIG. 14, (k) shows the data structure of the actual transition tendency information, (l) shows the data structure of the case information,
(M) shows the data structures of the implemented policy information and the executable policy information, respectively.

Here, the travel plan information is constituted by information capable of specifying a trip, such as a date, a train, a departure station, an arrival station, and the like in a railway. As described above, the information is recorded on the travel information storage medium 450 and is input to the prediction processing system 300 via the travel information input device 400.

The operation plan information includes, for example, information that can specify the operation of a railway, such as a station name, a train number, an arrival time, and a departure time. This information is changed and changed depending on the status of the operation result information. In addition, the operation result information is configured by, for example, information that can record an operation result, such as a station name, a train number, an arrival time, and a departure time in a railway. These are all supplied from the operation management system 200 to the prediction processing system 300.

The operation prediction information includes, for example, information that can specify future operation prediction such as a station name, a train number, an arrival time, and a departure time in a railway.
This is generated and output by the prediction processing system 300.

For example, in the case of a railway, the physical characteristic information specifies the physical constraints of the operation, such as the required time between stations, the departure interval, the arrival interval, the number of available lines, the number of available lines, and the like. It consists of information that can be obtained. The operation characteristic information includes, for example, information that can define operational constraints such as a minimum stop time, an arrival order, and a departure order in a railway. These are predetermined, and are stored in the storage device 3002 of the prediction processing system 300.
Is stored in

The performance change information is, for example, in the case of a railway, information that can define the trend of the operation performance, such as the increase / decrease tendency of each station at the time of delay. this is,
In the prediction processing system 300, it is obtained by calculation based on the operation result information.

For example, in the case of a railway, the case information is constituted by information that can specify the past operation status such as a station name, a train number, an initial delay time, and a delay time at each station. This is an accumulation of past cases, and is a storage device 3002 of the prediction processing system 300.
Is stored in

For example, in the case of a railway, a train number, a type of a recovery measure,
It consists of information that can define recovery measures, such as the content and extent of recovery measures. These measures are also stored in advance, and based on the stored measures, are calculated by the prediction processing system 300.

Among the above-mentioned information, travel plan information, operation plan information, operation result information, physical characteristic information, and operation characteristic information are sent to the stacking operation unit 311. The stacking calculation unit 311 performs a stacking calculation from these pieces of information,
Generate prediction information. The correction operation unit 312 performs a correction operation on the obtained prediction information, and outputs more accurate prediction information. Note that the correction calculation processing may be omitted.

The flow of the prediction process of the prediction processing means 310 will be described with reference to FIGS.

In FIG. 10, when the process is started, first, it enters a state of waiting for input of each information (step 110).
0). Here, if there is information input, after the information input wait process (step 1100), the prediction target information input process (step 1101) and the actual information input process (step 1100)
103), plan information input processing (step 1104), physical characteristic input processing (step 1105), and operation characteristic input processing (step 1106). In the prediction target information input processing (step 1101), when there are a plurality of travel targets, information input processing for specifying travel means to be predicted is performed, and in the subsequent prediction range information input processing (step 1102), prediction is performed. Input processing for specifying the range to be performed.

In the result information input processing (step 1103) and the plan information input processing (step 1104), input processing of operation result information and operation plan information of the travel means 100 is performed, respectively. Here, the prediction processing system 3 of the present invention is taken in from the operation management system 200.
00 in the storage device 3002. Then, the information is passed to the processing device 3001 as needed.

[0102] Physical property information input processing (step 110)
In 5) and operation characteristic information (step 1106), input processing of physical characteristic information of the travel means and input processing of operation characteristic information of the travel means are performed, respectively. Then, the information is passed to the processing device 3001 as needed.

Thereafter, the flow branches to physical property accumulation processing for the actual result (step 1211) and physical property accumulation processing for the plan 1201.

In the physical characteristic stacking process for the actual results, the physical characteristic information is added to the input actual information for the input prediction target and the input prediction range (step 1211). In the subsequent operation characteristic information accumulation process for the actual result, a process of adding the operation characteristic information to the processing result of the physical characteristic accumulation process for the actual result (step 1211) with respect to the input prediction target and the input prediction range is performed (step 1212). Then, a process of correcting the accumulation of the results is performed (step 131).
1). In this processing, the processing result of the operation characteristic accumulation processing (Step 1212) for the actual performance is corrected according to various conditions with respect to the input prediction target and the input prediction range.

On the other hand, physical property accumulation processing for adding physical property information to plan information (step 120)
1), operation characteristic information accumulation processing for the processing result of the physical characteristic accumulation processing for the plan (step 120)
2) And, a process of correcting the above processing result according to various conditions is performed (step 1301).

Thereafter, the correction prediction result determination processing (step 1)
400). In this correction prediction result determination process,
Based on the processing results of the stacking correction process for the actual results and the stacking correction process for the plan, a prediction result determination process and a prediction result information generation process are performed. Subsequently, the corrected prediction result output process (step 1500) outputs the generated prediction result information.

Thereafter, information input wait processing (step 110)
Return to 0) and repeat the process.

As described above, the prediction processing can be realized by the prediction processing system according to the present invention. In addition,
Physical property accumulation processing for results (step 121)
1), the operation characteristic information accumulation process for the actual result (step 1212), the physical characteristic accumulation process for the plan (step 1201), and the operation characteristic information accumulation process for the plan (step 1301) may be interchanged.

Next, a description will be given of a process of a correction calculation method of travel prediction information shown in FIG. In FIG.
Result transition tendency calculation processing (step 1351), past case trend input processing (step 1352), execution recovery measure score input processing (step 1353), feasible recovery measure score processing (1354), recovery recovery execution rate calculation processing (step 1355) and correction weight calculation processing (step 1360).

The processing started from the start 1350
The process branches to a result transition tendency calculation process (step 1351), a past case trend input process (step 1352), and an execution recovery measure score input process (step 1353).

[0097] The process of calculating the transition tendency of the performance (step 135)
1) performs a process of calculating the tendency of the transition of the performance information accumulated and managed by the operation information management means 330. In the past case trend input process (step 1352), based on the input result information and the input plan information, the trend information is collected from the trend information group in the past case managed by the case information management unit 370. Perform input processing. The execution recovery measure score input (step 1353) performs a process of inputting the score of the executed recovery measure from the input plan information.

Inputting the number of feasible recovery measures (step 13)
54) performs a process of inputting a score of a recovery measure that has room for execution from the input result information and the input plan information.

Recovery policy execution ratio calculation processing (step 13)
55) is a point input for the execution recovery measure (step 1354).
In addition, a process is performed to obtain the implemented ratio of the recovery measure from the already-executed recovery measure score obtained from the feasible recovery measure score input 440 and the score of the recovery measure having room for execution.

Thereafter, the correction weight calculation processing (step 136)
Merge with 0). Correction weight calculation processing (step 136)
0) performs a process of calculating a correction weight based on the results of the actual trend tendency calculation process 410, the past case trend input process 420, and the recovery measure execution ratio calculation process 450. Then, the process ends with the end (step 1470).

As described above, the correction calculation of the travel prediction information according to the present invention can be realized.

Next, the processing of prediction result judgment 1400 will be described with reference to FIG.

In the graph of FIG. 17A, the horizontal axis represents time, and the vertical axis represents distance between stations. In this graph, a line segment that is the actual departure time at station A (time 1) 3005 and the actual departure time at station B (time 2) 3010 is shown. Here, physical characteristic information (such as driving time between station B and station C) with respect to the actual information and operation characteristic information (such as predetermined stopping time).
When the stacking process is performed, the predicted time 3015 (time 3)
Is required. Here, the stacking process means a physical quantity (here, time) required for physical characteristics from the present time, and
This means a process of adding a physical quantity (here, time) necessary for operation to obtain a target physical quantity (here, arrival time). Now, assuming that a departure planned time 3020 (time 4) is set for departure from B station, physical property information (operation time between station B and station C) for the planned time and operation property information (predetermined time) (For example, when the vehicle stops), a predicted time 3025 (time 5) is obtained. Here, the estimated time 3025 (time 5) is calculated by applying the criterion of “do not depart earlier than the planned time”.
Adopt as prediction result.

On the other hand, in FIG.
And 3040 respectively represent the actual departure time of station A (time 1) and the actual departure time of station B (time 2). Here, physical characteristic information (operation time between station B and station C, etc.) for the performance information, operation characteristic information (predetermined stop time, etc.)
When the stacking process is performed, the predicted time 3045 (time 3)
Is required. Now, departure time 3
Assuming that 050 (time 4) is set, the physical property information (operation time between station B and station C, etc.) and the operation characteristic information (predetermined stop time, etc.) for the planned time are accumulated. , Predicted time 3055 (time 5). However, here, "take the later time"
By applying the judgment criterion, the predicted time 3045 (time 3) is adopted as the prediction result.

As described above, the judgment criteria are applied to the accumulation for the actual result, the accumulation for the plan, and the result.
Use prediction results.

In FIG. 17B, the time 3055 (time 5) and the time 3045 (time 3) may be used as the prediction result with the probability information as the prediction time range.

Next, the prediction correction weighting process will be described with reference to FIGS. 18 (a) to 18 (f).

FIGS. 18 (a) and 18 (c) show correction weighting based on the actual trend, FIG. 18 (b) shows correction weighting based on past case trends, and FIGS.
FIGS. 18 (e) and 18 (f) show the explanation of the correction weighting based on the recovery measure implementation ratio.

Here, in FIG. 18A, it is assumed that the distance and the traveling conditions are the same between the station A and the station B and between the station B and the station C. Now, when traveling is delayed between station A and station B, and the actual departure time of station A is time 1 and the actual departure time of station B is time 2, the result of accumulation of physical property information and operation characteristic information for the actual results is It shall be 3. While the result of the delay between station A and station B is predicted to travel at a predetermined time between station B and station C, the station B
-It means that the road between stations C is traveling at a higher speed. On the other hand, if a delay between the station A and the station B occurs in the station B and the station C, the arrival time of the station C is time 4.

Here, by assigning, for example, a probability distribution (for example, a standard distribution centering on an intermediate time) to the period between time 3 and time 4, it is possible to make correction weighting for prediction based on the actual transition tendency. Similarly, in FIG. 18B, time 5 is derived from the arrival time of the station C from the past case similar to the delay between the station A and the station B. Similarly, time 3
By assigning, for example, a probability distribution (for example, a standard distribution centering on an intermediate time) to the time between the times 5, it is possible to use correction weighting for prediction based on past case trends.

FIG. 18C shows the estimated arrival time of the station C when the train X, the train Y, and the train Z run normally between the station A, the station B, and the station C.

On the other hand, in FIG.
When the arrival of the train X is delayed (time 2) between the station A and the station B, and the train X travels at a predetermined order and at a predetermined time interval, the train X,
The estimated arrival times of the trains Y and Z at the station C (time 4, time 5, time 6) are shown. The departure of train Y from station B is delayed (time 3) under the influence of delayed train X, and the departure of station B of train Z is delayed (time 4) under the influence of delayed train Y.
I do. In that case, the arrival of train Y at station C is delayed (time 5)
Then, an estimated arrival time at which the arrival of the train Z at the station C is delayed (time 6) is obtained.

Therefore, as shown in FIG. 18 (e), when the departure order of the delayed train X and the train Y from the station B is changed (recovery measure 1), the train Y is predicted to arrive at the station C. From time 5 to time 9, a predicted arrival time at which the delay is reduced is determined. Similarly, as shown in FIG. 18F, when the change of the departure order of the delayed train X and the train Z from the station B (recovery measure 2) is performed, the train Z is predicted to arrive at the station C. From time 6 to time 10, a predicted arrival time at which the delay is reduced is determined.

Accordingly, the ratio of the implemented recovery measures to the feasible recovery measures for train Y (recovery measures 1) and feasible recovery measures for train Z (recovery measures 1 and 2) is determined. As the probability of the predicted time based on the completed recovery measure, the correction weighting of the prediction can be used. For example, when only recovery measure 1 is implemented, the probability of the predicted arrival time of station C of train Y (time 9) is 100%, and the probability of the predicted arrival time of station C of train Z (time 11) is 50%.

As described above, prediction correction weighting according to the present invention can be performed.

Next, with reference to FIG. 19, the accumulation of physical characteristic information and the accumulation of operation characteristic information in the present invention will be described.

In FIG. 19, the departure time (time 1) at station A and the travel time 3200 between stations A and B and the travel time 322 between stations B and C are used as physical characteristic information.
0, and the running time 3240 between the stations between the station C and the station D, as the operation characteristic information, the stopping time 3210 at the station B, and
It is assumed that the stop time 3230 at the station C is given.

Here, when the arrival time at the station D is obtained by stacking the physical characteristic information and the operation characteristic information, the following is performed. (1) The arrival time at station B is time 1 which is the departure time of station A
Then, the time 2 is obtained by adding the inter-station running time 3200 between the station A and the station B. (2) The departure time of station B is time 2 which is the arrival time of station B
By adding the stop time 3210 at station B to
Time 3 comes. (3) The arrival time at station C is time 3 which is the departure time of station B.
Then, the time 4 is obtained by adding the inter-station running time 3220 between the station B and the station C. (4) The departure time of station C is time 4 which is the arrival time of station C
By adding the stop time 3230 at station C to
Time 5 comes. (5) The arrival time at station D is time 5 which is the departure time of station C.
Then, the time 6 is obtained by adding 3240 to the travel time between stations between the station C and the station D. As described above, the physical characteristic information and the operation characteristic information can be accumulated.

FIG. 20 is a flowchart showing an example in which the correction operation is performed in the above-described prediction processing, but the correction operation is not performed. This prediction processing is the same as the procedure except for steps 1301 and 1311 in FIG. Therefore, the same reference numerals are used to avoid repetition of the description. Note that the prediction result determination processing (step 1400) and the prediction result output (step 1500) are only the difference between processing a corrected one or processing an uncorrected one. It is.

Next, the information presentation part in the individual travel information presentation system of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG.

FIG. 21 shows a processing flow of the individual travel information presenting method according to the present invention.

In FIG. 21, the prediction processing system 300
Functions as an individual travel information presentation system in addition to the prediction processing described above. In that case, a travel information input wait process (5110), a travel information input process (5120),
Prediction target specifying process (5130), prediction range specifying process (5
140), a correction prediction process (5150), an actual information / plan information output process (5160), and a correction prediction information display process (5170).

When the processing is started (step 500)
0), the prediction processing system 300 proceeds to a travel information input waiting process (step 5110). In the wait for input of travel information (step 5110), a process of waiting for input of travel schedule information from a traveler is performed. When the information is input, the process proceeds to a travel information input process (step 5120), and a process of inputting travel schedule information from a traveler is performed. Subsequently, in the prediction target specifying process (step 5130), a process of specifying a target to be predicted from the travel schedule information based on the result of the travel information input process (step 5120) is performed. Subsequently, in the prediction range specifying process (Step 5140), the range of the prediction target is specified based on the processing results of the travel information input process (Step 5120) and the prediction target specifying process (Step 5130). Perform the following processing.

Subsequently, the correction prediction processing (step 515)
In (0), based on the processing results of the prediction target specifying process (step 5130) and the prediction range specifying process (step 5140), the correction prediction process is performed for the specific range of the specifying target. Subsequently, the result information / plan information output process (step 5160) outputs the result information / plan information for the specific target. Subsequently, the correction prediction information output processing (step 5170) outputs the processing result of the correction prediction processing 550.

Thereafter, the travel information input wait (step 511)
Return to 0) and repeat the process. As described above, the individual travel information presentation method of the present invention can be realized.

Next, the individual travel information disclosure system of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG. 4 and FIG. This embodiment can be realized by the system configuration shown in FIG.

First, the individual travel information disclosure system will be described with reference to FIG. 4 and FIG. As described above, the individual travel information disclosure system of the present invention is provided in accordance with the travel prediction system 1, and the disclosure processing system 600
Composed of In addition, the individual travel information disclosure system 3 is connected to the client terminal 800 via a communication path, and executes a request for disclosure of information, a permission of disclosure of information, provision of information, and the like with the client terminal 800.

The disclosure processing system 600 can be constituted by, for example, a computer similar to the prediction processing system 300 described above. Its functions include information indicating a person who is permitted to disclose information, that is, a disclosure permitter information storage unit 610 for registering disclosure permitter information, and an input for registering disclosure permitter information from outside. Disclosure permitter information input means 620 for receiving the disclosure request from the client terminal 800; disclosure request information receiving means 630 for receiving the disclosure request from the client terminal 800; and determining whether the disclosure request is a registered permitter and permitting disclosure. Disclosure permission determining means 640 for determining whether or not the individual travel information of a specific person is obtained by the travel prediction system 1 when disclosure is permitted.
There is provided disclosure content information transmission means for transmitting the request to the client terminal 800 via a communication path.

The disclosure processing system 600 can be realized by, for example, a computer having a transmission / reception function, a facsimile having an automatic transmission / reception function, a telephone having an automatic transmission / reception function, or the like.

On the other hand, the client terminal 800 is a general personal computer, a notebook computer, a computer such as an electronic organizer, a telephone having an automatic transmission / reception function,
It is composed of facsimile etc. Of course, instead of a general-purpose product, a specialized product that can transmit only travel information of a specific individual may be used.

The client terminal 800 has, as its functions, a disclosure target person input means 810 for accepting input of disclosure target information, a disclosure requester information input means for receiving disclosure requester information, and disclosure request information. Request information transmitting means 830 for transmitting the information to disclosure processing system 600
And a disclosure content information receiving unit 840 for receiving disclosure content information transmitted from the disclosure processing system 600, and a disclosure content output unit 850 for outputting the received disclosure content.

FIG. 22 shows a flow of processing of the individual travel information disclosure method according to the present invention. In FIG. 22, in the present embodiment, the process of waiting for input of travel information, disclosure target person information, and disclosure permitter information (step 6105) includes a travel information input process (step 6110) and a prediction target specifying process (step 6).
115), a prediction range specifying process (step 6120), a correction prediction process (step 6125), a disclosure target person information input process (step 6130), a disclosure permitter information input process (step 6135) includes an information disclosure request reception process (step 6135). 6140), information disclosure permission determination processing (step 61)
45) and disclosure information transmission processing (step 615)
0).

In FIG. 22, the processing after 6200 indicates the processing in the client terminal 800. That is, the information disclosure requester information input processing (step 626)
0), information disclosure target person information input processing (step 626)
5), information disclosure request processing (step 6270), disclosure permission determination reception processing (step 6275), result determination processing (step 6280), disclosure information reception processing (step 6)
285), disclosure information output processing (step 6290), and termination (step 6295). here,
The information disclosure request process (step 6270), the disclosure permission determination reception process (step 6275), and the disclosure information reception process (step 6285) are processes related to communication between the individual travel information disclosure system 3 and the client system 800. is there.

The process started from the start 6100 proceeds to a process of waiting for input of travel information, disclosure target information, and disclosure permitter information (step 6105). Waiting for input of travel information, disclosure target information, disclosure permitter information (step 610)
5) performs a process of waiting for travel information, disclosure target person information, and disclosure permitter information from a traveler. When there is information input, the process branches to travel information input processing (step 6110) and disclosure target person information input processing (step 6130).

Travel information input processing (step 6110)
Performs a process of inputting travel information from a traveler. continue,
The prediction target specifying process (Step 6115) performs a process of specifying a target to be predicted from the travel information based on the result of the travel information input process (Step 6110). Subsequently, the prediction range specifying process (step 6120) specifies the prediction range of the prediction target based on the processing results of the travel information input process (step 6110) and the prediction target specifying process (step 6115). Perform the following processing. Subsequently, the correction prediction process (Step 6125) is based on the processing results of the prediction target specifying process (Step 6115) and the prediction range specifying process (Step 6120).
A correction prediction process is performed for a specific range of a specific target. Thereafter, it merges with the disclosure permitter information input process (step 6135), and proceeds to the information disclosure acceptance process (step 6140).

On the other hand, disclosure target information input processing (step 6)
In 130), input processing of information for specifying a traveler to be disclosed is performed. Subsequently, in disclosure permitter information input processing (step 6135), information input processing for specifying a person permitted to disclose information is performed. Thereafter, the process merges with the correction prediction process (step 6125) and proceeds to the information disclosure reception process (step 6140).

Subsequently, information disclosure acceptance processing (step 61)
In step 40), a process of waiting for information disclosure request information reception from the disclosure requester is performed. Steps 6140 to 6150 are performed by the computer of the disclosure processing system 600. Therefore, the processing is performed by the disclosure processing system 6.
After shifting to 00, the prediction processing system 300 can shift to another process. Of course, all the processes may be executed using the information processing device of the prediction processing system 300.

When the information disclosure request information is received, the process proceeds to the information disclosure permission determination process (step 6145). In the information disclosure permission determination process (step 6145), it is determined from the disclosure requester information included in the received information disclosure request information whether the information disclosure requester is the information disclosure permitter. If the person is not the information disclosure permitter, the information disclosure reception processing (step 614)
Return to 0). If the information disclosure is permitted, the process proceeds to the information transmission process (step 6150). Information disclosure processing system 600
Then, based on the disclosure requester information and the disclosure target information included in the received information disclosure request information, a process of transmitting actual information, plan information, and prediction information regarding the information disclosure target to the information disclosure requester is performed. Do. After that, travel information,
The process returns to the process of waiting for input of disclosure target person information and disclosure permitter information (step 6105), and repeats the process.

On the other hand, the processing starting from start 6200 proceeds to information disclosure requester information input processing (step 6260). Information disclosure requester information input processing (step 6260)
Then, an information disclosure requester, that is, an input process of information for identifying the user is performed. Subsequently, the information disclosure target person information input processing (step 6165) performs input processing of information for specifying the information disclosure target person.

Subsequently, information disclosure request processing (step 62)
70) includes disclosure requester information and disclosure target information.
With the information disclosure requester information, transmission processing of the information disclosure request is performed.

Subsequently, in the disclosure permission determination receiving process (step 6275), a process of receiving information on a result of determination that information disclosure is permitted or not permitted is performed. Subsequently, in the result determination process (6280), if information disclosure is permitted based on the determination result information indicating whether information disclosure is permitted or not permitted, the process proceeds to the information receiving process (step 6285), and information disclosure is not permitted. In this case, the process proceeds to the end (step 6295) and ends.

In the information receiving process (step 6285),
Disclosure information (actual information, plan information,
(Correction prediction information). Subsequently, the information output process (step 6285) performs a process of outputting the received disclosure information (actual information, plan information, and correction prediction information), proceeds to an end (step 6290), and ends.

As described above, the individual travel information disclosure system according to the present invention can be realized. Note that the disclosure permitter information input processing (step 6235), the information disclosure permission determination processing (step 6245), the disclosure permission determination reception processing (step 6275), and the result determination processing (step 628)
0) and the information disclosure requester information input process (step 6280) may be omitted. In that case, information will be disclosed to all requesters.

Next, an individual travel information transmission system will be described with reference to FIG. 6, FIG. 7, and FIG. The individual travel information transmission system 4 of the present invention, as described above,
The transmission processing system 700 is provided in accordance with the travel prediction system 1. The individual travel information transmission system 4 is connected to the receiving terminal 900 via a communication path, and transmits information to the receiving terminal 900. Further, in order to transmit the individual travel information to a specific transmission destination, the transmission destination is specified in advance.

The transmission processing system 700 can be composed of the above-described prediction processing system 300 and a simpler computer. For example, it is realized by a computer having a transmission function, a facsimile having an automatic transmission function, a telephone having an automatic transmission function, and the like.

As shown in FIG. 6, the function of this transmission processing system is as follows: transmission destination storage means 710 for storing information indicating a transmission destination specified as an information transmission destination; It has a transmission destination input means 720 and a transmission content information transmitting means 730 for transmitting the transmission content information to the receiving terminal 900. These functions can be easily realized by a facsimile machine whose destination can be registered. Further, a destination may be input whenever necessary.

Note that the travel information recording medium (IC card) 4
50 is used as a ticket and carried by travelers. In this case, the travel information input device (IC card reader) 400
Is used together with the ticket reader of the automatic ticket gate and the display of the automatic ticket gate. The IC card reader 400 is used together with a ticket reader of an automatic ticket gate, and the display 1950 is used together with a display of an automatic ticket gate. In this case, as the card information 451, traveler information (Mr. A), ticket information (train B from station B to station C, train 2 from station C to station D, train 3 from station D to station E), And transmission destination information (phone number: FG-HIJ)
K). It is also assumed that the transmission destination information of the in-card information 451 matches the information specifying the receiving-side fax 900 (telephone number: FG-HIJK). When the traveler reads the travel information recording medium (IC card) 450 into the travel information input device (IC card reader) 450, the ticket information is input to the correction prediction device, and
Communication path.

On the other hand, receiving terminal 900 has transmission content information receiving means 910 for receiving individual travel information transmitted via communication channel 901 and transmission content output means 920 for outputting the received transmission content. . Here, the output unit is, for example, a printer, a display device, or the like. This receiving terminal can typically be constituted by a facsimile machine. It is also possible to use a small computer. The communication path is an analog telephone line,
It is realized by a digital telephone line, a mobile telephone line, a PHS line, a terrestrial communication path, a satellite communication path, and the like.

FIG. 23 shows a processing flow of the individual travel information transmission system according to the present invention. In FIG. 23, step 7100 starts, step 7105 waits for input of travel information, transmission target information, and transmission destination information, step 71.
10 is a travel information input process, step 7115 is a prediction target specifying process, step 7120 is a prediction range specifying process, step 7125 is a correction prediction process, step 7130 is a transmission target person information input process, 7135 is a transmission destination information input process,
And 7140, a transmission information transmission process. In FIG. 23, 7145 is start, 7150 is transmission information reception processing, 7155 is transmission information output processing, and
7160 indicates the end.

The process started from the start 7100 proceeds to a process of waiting for input of travel information, transmission target person information, and transmission destination information (step 7105). In the process of waiting for input of travel information, transmission target information, and transmission destination information (step 7105), a process of waiting for travel information, transmission target information, and transmission destination information from a traveler is performed. When there is information input, the process branches to travel information input processing (step 7110) and transmission target person information input processing (step 7130). In the travel information input processing (step 7110), input processing of travel information from a traveler is performed.

Subsequently, the prediction target specifying process (step 71)
In 15), based on the result of the travel information input process (step 7120), a process for specifying a target to be predicted from the travel information is performed.

Subsequently, a prediction range specifying process (step 71)
20) In the travel information input process (step 7110),
Then, based on the processing result of the prediction target specifying process (step 7115), a process of specifying the range of the prediction, which is the target of the prediction, is performed.

Subsequently, in the correction prediction processing (7125),
Based on the processing results of the prediction target specifying process (Step 7115) and the prediction range specifying process (7120), the correction prediction process is performed for the specific range of the specifying target. Thereafter, the process merges with the transmission destination information input process (step 7135) and proceeds to the transmission information transmission process (step 7140).

On the other hand, transmission target information input processing (step 7)
130) performs input processing of information for specifying a traveler to be transmitted. Subsequently, the transmission destination information input processing (step 7135) performs input processing of information for specifying the information transmission destination. Thereafter, the correction prediction process (step 7125)
And proceeds to transmission information transmission processing (step 7140).

Transmission information transmission processing (step 7140)
Are actual information, plan information, correction prediction processing (step 71
25) A process of transmitting, to the transmission destination, the correction prediction information based on the transmission target person obtained from the transmission target person information processing (step 7130) and the transmission destination information input process (step 7135). I do.

Subsequently, the process returns to the process of waiting for input of travel information, transmission target information, and transmission destination information (step 7105), and repeats the process.

On the other hand, on the receiving terminal 900 side,
The processing starting from 145 proceeds to transmission information reception processing (step 7150). Transmission information reception processing (step 715)
0) performs a process of receiving transmission information (actual information, plan information, and correction prediction information) on the transmission target person.

Subsequently, the transmission information information output process (step 7155) performs a process of outputting the received transmission information (actual information, plan information, and correction prediction information), proceeds to an end (step 7160), and ends.

Here, the processing in step 7140,
Alternatively, the processing of steps 7130 to 7140 is performed by a special transmission processing system, for example, a facsimile. Steps 7105 to 714
All processing up to 0 may be performed by facsimile.

As described above, the individual travel information transmitting method according to the present invention can be realized.

Next, an example of screen display of individually provided travel information, passenger guidance information, and the like according to the embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS.

FIGS. 24, 25, 26 and 30 show examples of display screens when presenting individual travel information according to the present invention. In these drawings, an example of a display screen of the output device 2200 is shown. However, the examples described below are not limited to those displayed on the output terminal of the individual travel information presentation system.

In FIG. 24, reference numeral 2210 denotes a screen display, and displays 2220 and 2230 show a time or a probability number display regarding the arrival prediction.

Thus, the contents of the prediction information can be clearly displayed.

In FIG. 25, reference numeral 2300 denotes a screen display, and display 2330 indicates a time,
And a probability distribution graph display. Display 23
32 and a display 2334 represent a lower limit time and an upper limit time which are lower than the judgment threshold value.
Represents the time corresponding to the highest value.
Represents the distribution. Thereby, the content of the prediction information can be visually displayed.

Note that, in addition to the display 2332 and the display 2334, the area may be divided, and the display 2331 may be displayed in a different color for each division. In that case, visual recognition of the predicted information content can be supported. Display 2
The display 310, the display 2320, and the display 2330 need not be displayed together.

In FIG. 26, reference numeral 2400 denotes a screen display, and display 2430 denotes a graphic display of the time and the range of the estimated arrival time. The display 2431 represents a graphic display of an analog clock. The display 2432 represents a graphic display of the predicted arrival time and its range in the analog clock display 2431. Thereby, the contents of the prediction information can be visually expressed.

The display 2432 of the estimated arrival time and the range may be divided into regions in accordance with the distribution of probabilities, and each division may be displayed in a different color. In that case, visual recognition of the predicted information content can be supported. Note that the display 2410, the display 2420, and the display 2430 need not be displayed together.

In FIG. 30, reference numeral 2800 denotes a screen display, and a display 2830 shows an estimated arrival time, its range,
Also, it shows a diamond display of results. Display 2
At 830, the station is displayed in the vertical direction and the time is displayed in the horizontal direction, and the display 2831, the display 2832 and the display 2833 are displayed.
Indicates a station name. In addition, display 2834, display 2
835 and display 2836 represent the departure time (actual) of the station. Further, the display 2838 indicates the estimated arrival time range, respectively. Thereby, the content of the prediction information can be visually displayed together with information on the past history.

Display of expected arrival time and range 243
2 may be divided into regions according to the distribution of probabilities, and each of the regions may be displayed in a different color. In that case, visual recognition of the predicted information content can be supported. The display 281
0, the display 2820, and the display 2830 may not be displayed together. It should be noted that travel means other than railways can be similarly displayed.

As described above, individual travel information can be displayed.

Next, FIG. 27, FIG. 28, FIG. 29, FIG.
FIG. 8 shows an example of the entire travel itinerary information display of the individual travel information display according to the present invention. 27, 28, 29 and 31
, 2200 represents an output device for individual travel information.

In FIG. 27, reference numeral 2500 denotes a screen display, and a display 2530 and a display 2540 include line segments,
It represents station layout and so on. Display 2510 and Display 252
0, the display 2550, the display 2560, and the like indicate the range of the estimated arrival time and the probability thereof at each station. This makes it possible to clearly display the estimated arrival time, the range, and the probability at each station.

In FIG. 28, reference numeral 2600 denotes a screen display, and a display 2630, a display 2640, and the like represent line sections, station arrangements, and the like. The display 2610, the display 2620, and the like indicate the range of the estimated arrival time and the probability thereof at each station. The display 2650, the display 2670, and the display 2670 represent a probability distribution graph display of the estimated arrival time at each station. This makes it possible to visually display the predicted arrival time, the range, the probability, and the probability distribution at each station.

In FIG. 29, reference numeral 2700 denotes a screen display, and a display 2730 and a display 2740 are line segments,
Station layout and the like are shown, and a display 2710 and a display 272 are shown.
0, display 2750, and display 2760 represent a graphic display of an analog clock in the range of the estimated arrival time and a numerical display of the probability at each station.

Thus, the estimated arrival time at each station,
The range and probability can be visually displayed.

In FIG. 31, reference numeral 2900 denotes a screen display, and a display 2920 and a display 2930 indicate line sections, station arrangements, and the like. Display 2910, Display 29
Reference numerals 40, 2950, and the like show a diagram of arrival times (actual results) up to the present and a diagram of a range of estimated arrival times at each station. As a result, the estimated arrival time at each station and its range can be visually displayed with information on the past history. Note that the line sections and station arrangements may be line section arrangements and arrangements between other travel means. In this case, prediction information can be displayed throughout the entire travel process.

As described above, the entire travel itinerary can be displayed in the individual travel information display.

Next, another example of the correction operation that can be used in the prediction processing system of the present invention will be described. FIG.
3 shows details of a travel prediction information correction calculation device.

In FIG. 32, 1500 is the result information input means, 1505 is the result information storage means, 1510 is the result transition calculating means, 1515 is the case storage means, 1520 is the pattern matching calculation means, 1525 is the plan information input means, and 1530 is the plan information input means. The implementation recovery measure information extraction means 1535 is a plan information storage means. Reference numeral 1540 denotes an executed recovery measure information storage means, 1545 denotes a recovery measure execution ratio calculating means, 1550 denotes an executable recovery measure information extracting means, and 1555 denotes a prediction correction weight calculating means.

[0181] Among these units, the unit that requires an operation is basically realized by software. However, means that can be realized by a hardware circuit may be realized by hardware. The hardware components are realized by, for example, a relay circuit, a vacuum tube circuit, a transistor circuit, a CMOS circuit, an integrated circuit, and the like. The software may be realized by the same central processing unit by dividing the time allocation during the same programming or by adjusting the processing order, for a plurality of types of means for executing the processing. .

Among these means, the means used for storage is realized by, for example, a punch card, magnetic card, magneto-optical card, memory card, IC card, magnetic disk, magneto-optical disk, optical disk, or the like. . The same memory or the like can be used for a plurality of types of means.

Next, the correction processing shown in FIG. 15 will be described with reference to the drawings.

[0184] The record information input means 1500 is provided for the route 150.
An input process of the result information is performed via the server 1. The result information input means 1500 inputs the result information into the route 1504, the route 15
02 and a route 1518, respectively, to the result information storage means 1585, the result transition calculation means 1510, and the pattern matching calculation means 1520. The result information storage unit 1505 stores the received result information and stores the past result information in the route 1506.
To the number-of-results calculating means 1510 via

The performance transition calculating means 1510
5, obtained from the result information storage means 1505,
A transition of the result is obtained from the past result information and the result information obtained from the result information input unit 1500 via the path 1502, and the result is sent to the prediction correction weight calculating means 1555 via the path 1512.

The case storage unit 1515 stores past case information, and sends the past case information to the pattern matching calculation unit 1520 via the path 1516.

[0187] The plan information input means 1525
4, the input processing of the plan information is performed. The plan information input unit 1520 receives the plan information via a route 1513, a route route 1526, a route 1534, and a route 1551, respectively.
Implemented recovery measure information extraction means 1530, plan information storage means 1535, and feasible recovery measure information extraction means 15
Send to 50.

The pattern matching calculation means 1520
The received result information and plan information are compared with the received case information, and the pattern matching information is sent to the prediction correction weight calculation means 1555 via the path 1522.

The plan information storage means 1535 stores the received plan information, and also stores the past plan information via the path 1536 to the implementation recovery measure information extraction means 1530.
Send to The implementation recovery measure information extraction means 1530 determines that the route 1
The execution recovery measure information is extracted from the past plan information obtained from the plan information storage unit 1535 via the plan information storage unit 536, and the plan information obtained from the plan information input unit 1525 via the path 1526. Via the path 1532 to the executed recovery measure information storage means 1540.

The implemented recovery measure information storage means 1540
The received recovery measure information is stored, and the recovery measure execution ratio calculating means 154 is provided via the path 1542.
Send to 5. The feasible recovery measure information extracting means 1550
Executable recovery measure information is extracted from the plan information obtained from the plan information input unit 1520 via the path 1551, and the result is sent to the recovery measure execution ratio calculation means 1545 via the path 1552.

The recovery measure execution ratio calculating means 1545 obtains the recovery policy execution ratio from the received completed recovery policy information and the feasible recovery policy information, and outputs the result to the route 15.
The signal is sent to the prediction correction weight calculation means 1555 via 46.

The prediction correction weight calculating means 1555 obtains a prediction correction weight from the received actual transition information, pattern matching information with past cases, and recovery measure execution ratio information, and outputs the result via a path 1556. I do.

As a result, it is possible to realize a travel prediction information correction calculation device according to the present invention.

In the individual travel information providing system of the present invention, input of some data may trigger the provision of travel information. In the case of the above-described prediction processing system, for example, there is a state of waiting for input (step 1100) as shown in FIG. By the way, in the example shown in FIG. 10, the data that can be input according to external circumstances when the input is waiting is three: prediction target information, actual information, and plan information. For this reason, it can be said that there are cases shown in FIGS. 33 to 35 as a case where the prediction processing system starts the process from the input waiting state.

In the case of FIG. 33, input of the prediction target information / prediction range information is awaited (step 1100-1), so when the prediction target information is input, it is triggered.
Start reading other information. In the case of FIG. 34, the input of the performance information is used as a trigger (step 1100-2).
Therefore, when the result information is input, other information is read, and the process proceeds to the execution of the correction prediction calculation. Similarly, in the case of FIG. 35, waiting for input of plan information (step 1100-3)
Then, when the plan information is inputted, the reading of other information is started.

Next, regarding the generation of travel prediction information, FIG.
This will be described more specifically with reference to FIGS. FIG. 12, FIG. 13, FIG. 14, FIG. 15, and FIG. 16 show a flow of information relating to travel prediction and a configuration of each information according to the present invention.

In FIG. 12, (a) shows the structure of travel plan information, (b) shows the structure of operation plan information (initial state),
(C) is the configuration of the operation plan information (state after change), (d)
Shows the configuration of the operation result information, and (e) shows the configuration of the prediction information. In FIG. 13, (f) and (g) show the configuration of the physical characteristic information, and (h), (i) and (j) show the configuration of the operation characteristic information, respectively. In FIG. 14, (k) shows the configuration of actual transition tendency information, (l) shows the configuration of case information, and (m) shows the configuration of implemented policy information and executable policy information.

The travel plan information is, for example, in the case of a railway, information such as a date, a train, a departure station, an arrival station, etc., which can specify a trip. The operation plan information includes, for example, information that can specify an operation such as a station name, a train number, an arrival time, and a departure time in a railway. This information is changed and changed depending on the status of the operation result information. The operation result information includes, for example, in a railway, a station name, a train number, an arrival time, a departure time,
And the like, which can record operation results. The operation prediction information is, for example, a railway name,
It is composed of information that can define future operation predictions, such as train numbers, arrival times, and departure times.

[0199] The physical characteristic information defines, for example, the physical constraints of operation such as the required time between stations, the departure interval, the arrival interval, the number of usable lines, the number of usable lines, etc. for railways. It consists of information that can be obtained. The operation characteristic information includes, for example, information that can define operational constraints such as a minimum stop time, an arrival order, and a departure order in a railway.

[0200] The performance transition information is constituted by information that can define the transition tendency of the operation performance, for example, in the case of a railway, the tendency to increase or decrease at the time of delay at each station.

For example, in the case of a railway, the case information is constituted by information that can specify the past operation status such as a station name, a train number, an initial delay time, and a later delay time at each station.

For example, in the case of a railway, the train number, the type of the recovery measure,
It consists of information that can define recovery measures, such as the content and extent of recovery measures.

The travel plan information is stored in the forecast target information management means 3.
20 through a path 3905 via a stacking operation unit 311
Sent to The operation plan information and the operation result information are sent from the operation management information management unit 330 to the stacking operation unit 311 via the route 3915. The physical property information is sent from the physical property information management means 340 to the stacking operation device 311 via the path 3925. The operation characteristic information is sent from the operation characteristic information management unit 350 to the stacking operation unit 311 via the path 3935.

[0204] The stacking calculation unit 311 performs a stacking calculation from these pieces of information to generate prediction information. Here, the travel schedule information (a) is as follows: {date, train number, departure station, arrival station} = {｛month, day,
Y, C, E}, the corresponding operation plan information (b) is {train, departure station, departure time, arrival station, arrival time} =
{Y, C, 10:40, E, 10:57}. The operation result information (d) is {train, station, arrival time, departure time} = {X, A, ---,
10:00｝, ｛Y, A, ----, 10:25｝, ｛X, B, 10: 3
At 0, ----｝, the arrival time of train X at station B is delayed by 15 minutes,
Based on this operation result information (d), physical characteristic information (f) {Express time required, normal time required} = {7.5, 15.0} {Departure interval, arrival interval} = {5.0, 5.0} and operation Characteristic information (h) {Express minimum stop time, normal minimum stop time} = 2.5, 5.
0｝, {station, first-arriving, last-arriving} = {A, X, Y}, {B, X,
Y}, {C, X, Y}, {D, Y, X}, {E, Y,
X｝ ｛station, starter, starter 後 = {A, X, Y}, ＸB, X,
Y}, {C, Y, X}, {D, Y, X}, {E, Y,
By performing the stacking operation while maintaining the order of X｝, the operation prediction information (e), {train, departure station, departure time, arrival station, arrival time} =
{Y, C, 10:55, E, 11:12} are obtained.

The stacking operation unit 311 sends the prediction information to the correction operation unit 312 via the path 3975.

The correction calculator 312 receives the actual transition tendency information from the actual transition calculator 360 via the path 3945. The correction operation unit 312 outputs, via the path 3955,
The degree of matching with the case information is received from the pattern matching means 370. The correction calculation unit 312 receives the recovery measure execution ratio information from the recovery measure execution ratio calculation unit 380 via the path 3965.

The result transition calculating means 360 includes a pattern matching means 370 and a recovery measure execution ratio calculating device 3960.
Are the path 3916, the path 3917, and the path 39, respectively.
The operation result information and the operation plan information are received from the train operation management means 330 via 18.

The result transition information (k) receives {station B arrival delay of train X, and obtains {station, delay tendency} = {B, +15}.

[0209] As case information (l), {train, station, final delay} = {X, B, 18}, {X,
C, 16}, {X, D, 14}, {X, E, 12},
{Y, B, 15}, {Y, C, 13}, {Y, D, 1
If there is 1}, {Y, E, 9}, the degree of match is determined by calculating the difference between the result information after station B and the case information at the time of delay.

Further, the effect of the delayed train X can be reduced by changing the order of departure of train X and train Y at station B and the order of arrival of train X and train Y at station C, respectively. The ratio of the executed recovery measures to the feasible recovery measures that the train Y can avoid can be obtained.

The correction calculation unit 312 corrects the prediction information from the actual transition tendency information (k), information on the degree of coincidence with the case information (k), and information on the ratio of the implemented recovery measures (m) to the feasible recovery measures. , The corrected prediction information
85 is output. Thereby, the configuration and processing of each information can be performed.

FIGS. 15 and 16 show the transition of the train operation results, the train operation plan, and the train operation prediction based on the above-described processing flow.

[0213]

According to the present invention, the following effects can be obtained.

[0214] 1. Based on the operation status of the travel means, highly accurate travel schedule information for each traveler can be acquired.

[0215] 2. It is possible to acquire travel schedule information for each traveler.

[0216] 3. The individual travel schedule information of the traveler can be sent to a designated transmission destination or to a requested destination.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an outline of an individual travel information presentation system of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a presentation-only part of the individual travel information presentation system of the present invention.

FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram showing a presentation-only part of the individual travel information presentation system of the present invention.

FIG. 4 is a travel prediction information presentation system according to the present invention,
FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a system capable of performing disclosure processing in addition to presentation.

FIG. 5 is a travel prediction information presentation system according to the present invention,
Explanatory drawing which shows the system which can also perform disclosure processing other than presentation.

FIG. 6 is a travel prediction information presentation system according to the present invention,
FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a system capable of performing transmission processing in addition to presentation.

FIG. 7 is a travel prediction information presentation system according to the present invention,
Explanatory drawing which shows the system which can also perform transmission processing other than presentation.

FIG. 8 is a block diagram showing an example of a hardware system configuration of a prediction processing system according to the present invention.

FIG. 9 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration of a prediction processing system according to the present invention.

FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing a processing flow in the prediction processing system of the present invention.

FIG. 11 is a flowchart for performing correction in the prediction processing.

12A is a diagram illustrating a data structure of travel plan information, FIG. 12B is a diagram illustrating a data structure of operation plan information (initial state), and FIG. 12C is a diagram illustrating operation plan information (state after change). FIG. 3D is an explanatory diagram showing a data structure of operation performance information, and FIG. 4E is an explanatory diagram showing a data structure of prediction information.

13 (f) and (g) are explanatory diagrams showing a data structure of physical characteristic information, and (h), (i) and (j) are explanatory diagrams showing a data structure of operation characteristic information.

14 (k) is an explanatory diagram showing the data structure of actual transition trend information, FIG. 14 (l) is an explanatory diagram showing the data structure of case information, FIG. 14 (m) is the data structure of implemented policy information and executable policy information FIG.

15A is an explanatory diagram of information indicating a travel plan, FIG. 15B is an explanatory diagram of a train operation plan, and FIG. 15C is an explanatory diagram of an example of train operation results and operation prediction.

FIG. 16 (d) is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a train operation result and an operation prediction, and FIG. 16 (e) is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a train operation result and an operation prediction under conditions different from the above (d).

17A is a graph showing a prediction result obtained by accumulating physical characteristic information and operation characteristic information on actual information, and FIG. 17B is a graph showing accumulation processing of physical characteristic information and operational characteristic information on actual information. The graph which shows other prediction results obtained by performing.

18A is a graph showing a result of correction weighting based on an actual trend, FIG. 18B is a graph showing a result of correction weighting based on past case trends, and FIG. Graphs shown, (d) and (e)
And (f) is a graph showing a correction weighting result based on a recovery measure implementation ratio.

FIG. 19 is a graph showing the accumulation of physical characteristic information and the accumulation of operation characteristic information in the present invention.

FIG. 20 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a prediction process in which a correction operation is not performed.

FIG. 21 is a flowchart showing the flow of processing of the individual travel information presentation method according to the present invention.

FIG. 22 is a flowchart showing the flow of processing for individual travel information disclosure according to the present invention.

FIG. 23 is a flowchart showing the flow of processing of the individual travel information transmission system according to the present invention.

FIG. 24 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a display screen when presenting individual travel information according to the present invention.

FIG. 25 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a display screen when presenting individual travel information according to the present invention.

FIG. 26 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a display screen when presenting individual travel information according to the present invention.

FIG. 27 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a display screen of the entire travel itinerary information display of the individual travel information display.

FIG. 28 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a display screen for displaying the entire travel itinerary information in the individual travel information display.

FIG. 29 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a display screen for displaying the entire travel itinerary information in the individual travel information display.

FIG. 30 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a display screen when presenting individual travel information according to the present invention.

FIG. 31 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a display screen for displaying the entire travel itinerary information in the individual travel information display.

FIG. 32 is a block diagram showing details of a travel prediction information correction calculation device.

FIG. 33 is a flowchart showing an example of starting prediction processing when prediction target information is input.

FIG. 34 is a flowchart illustrating an example of starting prediction processing when actual information is input.

FIG. 35 is a flowchart showing an example of starting prediction processing when plan information is input.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 ... Travel prediction system, 2 ... Individual travel information presentation system, 3 ... Individual travel information disclosure system, 100 ... Travel means, 200 ... Operation management system, 300 ... Prediction processing system, 310 ... Prediction processing means, 311: Stacking processing unit, 312: Correction processing unit, 320: Prediction target information management unit, 330: Operation management information management unit, 340: Physical characteristic information management unit, 350: Operation characteristic information management unit, 3
60: Result transition calculating means, 370: Pattern matching means, 380: Recovery measure execution ratio calculating means, 381: Implemented recovery measure information management means, 400: Travel information input device, 450: Travel information storage medium, 451: In card Information, 500: output terminal, 510: display screen, 600: disclosure processing system, 610: disclosure permitter information storage means, 6
20: disclosure permitter information input means, 630: disclosure request information receiving means, 640: disclosure permission determining means, 650: disclosure content information transmitting means, 700: transmission processing system, 710
Transmission destination information storage means, 720... Transmission destination information input means, 7
Reference numeral 30: transmission content information transmission means, 800: client terminal, 810: disclosure target information input means, 820: disclosure requester information input means, 830: disclosure request information transmission means, 8
40: disclosure content information receiving means, 850: disclosure content output means, 900: receiving terminal, 3001: processing device, 3002
... storage device, 3003 ... input interface, 3004
... Output interface.

Claims (20)

[Claims] 1. A method for predicting the operation of a travel means, comprising: calculating an operation result obtained by adding physical characteristic information and operational characteristic information based on the operation result information of the travel means; Based on the operation plan information of the travel means, a calculation result obtained by adding physical characteristic information and operational characteristic information is used as second operation prediction information, and the first operation prediction information, the second operation prediction information, An operation prediction method for travel means, wherein a result of comparison and determination of operation prediction information is output as travel prediction information. 2. A system for predicting the operation of a travel means, a means for inputting operation result information of the travel means, a means for inputting operation plan information of the travel means, a means for inputting physical characteristic information, Means for inputting operation characteristic information; means for performing an operation between operation result information, physical characteristic information, and operation characteristic information to output first operation prediction information; operation plan information Means for performing an operation between physical characteristic information and operational characteristic information to output second operation prediction information, and comparing and judging the first operation prediction information and the second operation prediction information. And a means for outputting travel prediction information. 3. The operation of the travel means according to claim 1, wherein a transition tendency of the operation results of the travel means is obtained, and the operation prediction information is corrected based on the tendency. Forecasting method. 4. The operation prediction system according to claim 2, further comprising: means for obtaining a transition tendency of the operation results of the travel means; and means for correcting the operation prediction information based on the obtained transition tendency. An operation prediction system for travel means, characterized in that: 5. The operation prediction method according to claim 1, wherein a past operation example of the travel means is compared with a current operation state, and based on a matching degree between the past operation example and the current operation state,
An operation prediction method for travel means, wherein the operation prediction information is corrected. 6. The operation prediction system according to claim 1, wherein the means for storing the past operation cases of the travel means and the past operation cases of the travel means and the current operation status are compared. And a means for correcting the operation prediction information based on the degree of matching between the current operation status and the current operation status. 7. The operation prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the prediction information is corrected based on a ratio of the executed measures to all the measures that can be performed, for the measures for changing the operation status of the travel means. How to predict the operation of travel means. 8. The operation prediction system according to claim 2, wherein: means for extracting feasible recovery measure information from the plan information; means for extracting implemented recovery measure information from past and current plan information; Calculating means for obtaining an execution ratio of the recovery measure from the executed recovery measure information and the feasible recovery measure information; a means for obtaining a weight for prediction correction based on the execution ratio; and a means for correcting the prediction information according to the weight An operation prediction system for travel means, comprising: 9. A method for presenting travel prediction information of a travel means for each traveler, wherein physical property information is obtained based on travel actual information of the travel means relating to the travel information. And the operation result to which the operational characteristic information is added
Based on the travel plan information of the travel means related to the travel schedule information, the calculation result obtained by adding the physical characteristic information and the operational characteristic information to 2
And outputting a result of comparing and judging the first operation prediction information and the second operation prediction information as travel prediction information. 10. An individual travel information presentation system for presenting travel prediction information of a travel means for each traveler, means for inputting travel schedule information for each traveler, operation of the travel means related to the input schedule information. Means for obtaining first operation prediction information by adding physical characteristic information and operational characteristic information based on the actual information; and operation plan information of the travel means related to the input schedule information. Means for obtaining second operation prediction information by adding physical characteristic information and operational characteristic information; and performing travel prediction based on a result of comparing and judging the first operation prediction information and the second operation prediction information. Means for presenting information as information. 11. The individual travel information presentation method according to claim 9, wherein the travel prediction information corresponding to the individual travel schedule information of the individual traveler is transmitted in response to an information disclosure request from the requester. Individual travel information presentation method. 12. The individual travel information presentation system according to claim 10, further comprising means for receiving an information disclosure request from the requester and transmitting travel prediction information corresponding to the individual travel schedule information of the corresponding traveler. An individual travel information presentation system, comprising: 13. The individual travel information presenting method according to claim 9, wherein designation of a destination is received, and the output travel prediction information is transmitted to the received destination. Information presentation method. 14. The individual travel information presentation system according to claim 10, wherein: means for receiving and storing the designation of the transmission destination; and transmitting the output travel prediction information to the stored specified transmission destination. And a means for presenting individual travel information. 15. The individual travel information presentation method according to claim 9, wherein in addition to the travel prediction information, a past operation result of travel means,
And a method for presenting individual travel information, wherein at least one of the current operation statuses of the travel means is output together. 16. The individual travel information presentation system according to claim 10, further comprising storage means for storing travel schedule information for each traveler, wherein the travel schedule information for each traveler is provided. Means for reading travel schedule information from the storage means. 17. An individual travel information presentation system for presenting operation prediction information of travel means for each individual traveler, wherein the individual travel schedule information for each traveler and the destination of the travel schedule information corresponding to the travel schedule information are indicated. Means for reading and inputting the information from the recording medium on which the information is recorded, and physical characteristic information and operational characteristics based on the operation result information of the travel means relating to the input schedule information. Means for obtaining first operation prediction information by adding information, and physical characteristic information and operational characteristic information based on the operation plan information of the travel means relating to the input schedule information. Means for calculating the second operation prediction information, means for comparing and determining the first operation prediction information and the second operation prediction information, and outputting the result as travel prediction information, Individual travel information presentation system, characterized in that it comprises means for transmitting the presentation destination that is the input. 18. An individual travel information presentation system for presenting travel prediction information of travel means individually for each traveler, wherein disclosure of travel schedule information for each traveler and travel schedule information corresponding to the travel schedule information is permitted. Means for reading and inputting such information from the recording medium on which the information indicating the disclosure destination is recorded, and physical characteristic information based on the operation result information of the travel means related to the input schedule information, and Means for obtaining first operation prediction information by adding operation characteristic information; and physical characteristic information and operation characteristics based on the operation plan information of the travel means relating to the inputted schedule information. Means for obtaining second operation prediction information by adding information; means for comparing and judging the first operation prediction information and second operation prediction information as travel prediction information; Accept the disclosure requirements of the travel prediction information,
Determine whether the disclosure requester is the permitted disclosure destination,
Means for disclosing the travel prediction information when the destination is an authorized disclosure destination. 19. An individual travel information presentation system for presenting operation prediction information of travel means individually for each traveler, wherein a travel schedule information for each traveler and a destination of travel schedule information corresponding to the travel schedule information are indicated. Means for reading and inputting the information from the recording medium on which the information is recorded, and generating travel prediction information for the travel plan of the traveler based on the operation result information of the travel means related to the input schedule information. And a means for transmitting the generated travel prediction information to the input presentation destination. 20. An individual travel information presentation system for presenting travel prediction information of travel means individually for each traveler, wherein disclosure of travel schedule information for each traveler and travel schedule information corresponding to the travel schedule information is permitted. Means for reading and inputting such information from a recording medium on which information indicating the disclosure destination is recorded, and based on the operation result information of the travel means related to the input schedule information, the Means for generating travel prediction information, receiving a request to disclose the generated travel prediction information,
Determine whether the disclosure requester is the permitted disclosure destination,
Means for disclosing the travel prediction information when the destination is an authorized disclosure destination, the individual travel information presentation system.