JP3519938B2 - Individual travel information presentation system - Google Patents

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a system for providing information on the operation forecast of a passenger transportation system, and in particular,
The present invention relates to an individual travel information presentation system that presents travel forecast information for individual travel means.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Generally, in passenger guidance in passenger transportation, for each traveler seeking guidance,
It is required to provide information on the current travel situation (travel situation), future travel prospects, and future trips to the final destination (travel forecast). In addition, it is required that the travel situation information and the travel prediction information be provided to other travelers and persons other than the travelers in consideration of convenience such as waiting and meeting.

Therefore, in the passenger guide, the travel status and travel forecast information for each traveler can be easily known by the corresponding traveler, another traveler, or a person other than the other traveler. It is required to be in a profitable state.

By the way, as a technique for predicting the operating condition of a travel means such as a train after a certain time when there is a delay, there is one disclosed in Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 9-58475. That is, the driving pattern (stop, stop,
Alternatively, there is a method for adding the running time and the stopping time for each (passing) to obtain an estimated train schedule (arrival time or departure time at a certain station), and a device therefor.
Further, as a technique for providing individual passenger guidance information, as in Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 7-93613, a method of printing the current operation status of a train stored in a ticket on the ticket , And devices for that.

Further, generally, as means for providing passenger guidance information in a travel means such as a railroad, there are the following methods and devices. That is, as a method of providing information common to all travelers, for example, there is a method of providing train guidance information by train time order and direction by using a passenger information board, station yard broadcasting, and the like. As a service provided only within facilities related to travel means, for example, there is a method provided at a station premises or a travel window. Also,
As a method of providing information based on information held in advance such as an operation schedule, there is a method of providing passenger guidance information according to timetable information, for example.

[0006]

However, in the above-mentioned prior art, firstly, about obtaining a travel prediction, and secondly, each traveler, other travelers, or other travelers. There are the following problems for each person to obtain travel information.

<About obtaining travel forecast> Does not consider changes in the operation plan. For example, in the case of train operations that are disrupted due to delays, for example, by changing the operation schedule (operation plan information), the operation of the train can be disrupted early. Measures to recover (operation rescheduling) will be implemented. However, in the above-mentioned conventional technique, the change of the operation plan information is not taken into consideration, and as a result, the prediction does not match the actual condition.

2. For example, in a railway that does not take into consideration the deterioration / recovery tendency of the travel status of the travel means, the train delay may increase or decrease depending on the cause of the train delay. However, in the above-mentioned conventional technique, the prediction is performed based on the operation of a certain standard regardless of the tendency of delay expansion and contraction, and as a result, the prediction does not match the actual situation.

3. For example, in the case of a railway that does not take into consideration the degree of implementation (room for implementation) of recovery measures for operational disturbances, it may be possible to further recover operational disturbances by further rescheduling operations. However, in the above-mentioned conventional technique, since there is no room for recovery from the operation disturbance due to the traffic rescheduling, the result is a prediction that does not match the actual situation.

As described above, according to the conventional technique, since information on the current operating condition is not provided in a timely manner, the determination is not based on the correct operating condition, and it is not possible to obtain an appropriate operation prediction. There is.

<Regarding Each Traveler, Other Traveler, or Person Other Than Other Traveler Obtaining Travel Information> For example, in the case of a railway that does not consider individual passenger guidance, each traveler selects a desired train from a plurality of trains to be operated and also selects a desired boarding section to travel. And in some cases,
You may travel by connecting multiple desired trains. However, the above-mentioned conventional technology only provides common passenger guidance information to all travelers. Therefore, each searches and obtains the operating status information of the desired train from among the multiple information,
And in some cases they must be combined to infer a trip to the final destination.

5. When other travelers receive travel information specific to a certain traveler, places, timings, etc. are limited. For example, in a railway, it is possible to inquire at a station or the like about information common to all travelers. However, it is not possible to inquire about individual traveler information. Therefore, each traveler has no choice but to contact others. Further, nevertheless, there are the above-mentioned problems 4 with respect to each traveler acquiring their own travel information.

As described above, there is a problem that it is not easy for the traveler himself and others to obtain the travel forecast information corresponding to the travel plan of each traveler.

A first object of the present invention is to provide a technique capable of providing highly accurate travel prediction information based on the operating status of a travel means.

A second object of the present invention is to provide a technique capable of presenting travel prediction information corresponding to a travel plan of each traveler.

[0016] A third object of the present invention is to provide a technique capable of disclosing the travel prediction information of each traveler individually upon request and transmitting it to a designated destination.

[0017]

The present inventors propose the following solving method as a technique for achieving the above-mentioned first object.

First, the physical characteristic information regarding the prediction target and the operational characteristic information are acquired. Next, information on physical characteristics and information on operational characteristics are accumulated and calculated in the operation record information to be predicted (for example,
1st prediction by adding the running time between stations and the stop time at the station to the actual arrival time of a certain train and the arrival time of a certain station) Ask for information. In addition, the operation plan information of the prediction target, information of physical characteristics,
And, the information of operational characteristics is accumulated and calculated (for example, by adding the running time between stations and the stop time at a station to the planned arrival time of a certain train, The second prediction information is obtained by setting the arrival time at a certain station, etc.). Next, the first prediction information and the second prediction information are compared and judged. Then, the judgment result is used as final prediction information.
As a result, the travel forecast result based on the status of the travel means, the operation record of the travel means, and the operation plan of the travel means is obtained.

As a first aspect of a solution method for achieving the above-mentioned first object, in a method of predicting the operation of a travel means, physical characteristic information based on operation record information of the travel means, and The operation result obtained by adding the operational characteristic information is used as the first operation prediction information, and the operation result obtained by adding the physical characteristic information and the operation characteristic information to the first operation prediction information is used as the first operation prediction information. There is an operation prediction method for travel means characterized in that the operation prediction information of No. 2 is used, and the result of comparing and determining the first operation prediction information and the second operation prediction information is output as travel prediction information.

As a second aspect of the solution method for achieving the first object, in a system for predicting the operation of a travel means, a means for inputting operation record information of the travel means and an operation plan for the travel means. Calculation between information input means, physical characteristic information input means, operational characteristic information input means, operation record information, physical characteristic information, and operational characteristic information And means for outputting the first operation prediction information, and means for performing an operation between the operation plan information, the physical characteristic information, and the operation characteristic information to output the second operation prediction information. There is an operation prediction system for a travel means, characterized by comprising means for comparing and determining the first operation prediction information and the second operation prediction information and outputting the travel prediction information.

Further, as a technique for achieving the above second object, the following solution method is proposed.

In this method, individual travel schedule information is obtained for each traveler. For example, individual travel schedule information is stored in an appropriate storage medium and read out to obtain travel schedule information for each traveler. Typically, it is conceivable that this kind of information is written on a ticket or the like and then mechanically read to obtain the information.

A first method to which the solution method for the second object is applied
As a mode of, in the method of presenting the operation prediction information of the travel means to each traveler, the physical characteristic information based on the operation record information of the travel means related to the schedule information about the travel schedule information of each traveler, Also, the calculation result obtained by adding the characteristic information on the operation is used as the first operation prediction information, and the travel characteristic information for each traveler is based on the operation characteristic information of the travel means related to the schedule information and the physical characteristic information. ,and,
It is characterized in that a calculation result including operational characteristic information is used as second operation prediction information, and a result obtained by comparing and judging the first operation prediction information and the second operation prediction information is output as travel prediction information. An individual travel information presentation method is provided.

As a second mode in which the method for achieving the above-mentioned second object is applied, in the individual travel information presenting system for presenting the travel prediction information of the travel means to each traveler, the travel schedule information of each traveler And means for obtaining the first operation prediction information by adding physical characteristic information and operational characteristic information based on the operation record information of the travel means related to the inputted schedule information. , Based on the travel plan operation plan information related to the input schedule information,
Means for obtaining second operation prediction information by adding physical characteristic information and operational characteristic information, and the result of comparing and judging the first operation prediction information and the second operation prediction information are travel prediction information. An individual travel information presentation system is provided, which is provided with:

Further, the following technique is proposed as a technique for achieving the third object.

First, the case of transmitting information to a designated destination will be described. In this case, for each traveler, a storage medium is prepared which holds travel schedule information and information regarding the destination of the travel forecast and the travel destination for each traveler. From this storage medium,
The travel prediction information is read to generate travel prediction information, and the travel prediction information and the like are transmitted to the transmission destination read from the storage medium.

Secondly, a case will be described in which the travel prediction information for each traveler is disclosed to the disclosure requester. For each traveler, a storage medium that holds travel schedule information and information indicating a disclosure destination for which information disclosure is permitted is prepared.
The travel schedule information is read from this storage medium, travel prediction information is generated, and when disclosure of the travel prediction information is requested, it is determined whether or not it is the disclosure destination stored in the storage medium, and the disclosure is made. If it is the destination, the travel schedule information and the travel prediction information are presented to the disclosure destination. The information transmitted and the information disclosed are not limited to the travel reservation information. Other information, such as the operating status of the travel means, may be presented.

As a first mode to which this method is applied, in an individual travel information presentation system that presents the travel prediction information of the travel means to each traveler, the travel schedule information for each traveler and the travel schedule information are dealt with. Based on the means for reading and inputting such information from the recording medium in which the information indicating the destination of the travel schedule information is recorded and the travel record information of the travel means related to the inputted schedule information, the traveler concerned. There is an individual travel information presentation system characterized by comprising: means for generating travel prediction information for the travel schedule; and means for transmitting the generated travel prediction information to the input presentation destination.

As a second aspect, in the individual travel information presentation system for presenting the travel prediction information of the travel means to each traveler, the travel schedule information of each traveler and the travel schedule corresponding to the travel schedule information. From the recording medium in which the information indicating the information presentation destination is recorded, a means for reading and inputting such information, and physical characteristic information based on the operation record information of the travel means related to the input schedule information, And, based on the operation plan information of the travel means related to the input schedule information, the physical characteristic information based on the means for obtaining the first operation prediction information by adding the operation characteristic information, and
Means for obtaining second operation prediction information by adding operational characteristic information, means for comparing and judging the first operation prediction information and the second operation prediction information, and outputting as travel prediction information; There is an individual travel information presentation system comprising: means for transmitting the travel prediction information that has been input to the input presentation destination.

As a third aspect, in the individual travel information presentation system for presenting the travel prediction information of the travel means to each traveler, the travel schedule information of each traveler and the travel schedule corresponding to the travel schedule information. Based on the means for reading and inputting such information from the recording medium on which the information indicating the disclosure destination where the disclosure of the information is permitted and the operation record information of the travel means related to the inputted schedule information is concerned, A means for generating travel prediction information for a travel schedule of a traveler, and a disclosure request for the generated travel prediction information, determining whether the disclosure requester is the permitted disclosure destination, and allowing the disclosure. There is a means for disclosing the travel prediction information at the previous time, and there is an individual travel information presentation system characterized by the above.

Further, as a fourth aspect, in the individual travel information presentation system for presenting the travel prediction information of the travel means to each traveler, the travel schedule information for each traveler, and
Means for reading and inputting the information indicating the disclosure destination to which the disclosure of the travel schedule information corresponding to the travel schedule information is recorded, and travel means relating to the inputted schedule information. Based on the operation record information of, the physical characteristic information and the means for obtaining the first operation prediction information by adding the characteristic information on the operation, and the operation plan information of the travel means related to the input schedule information. Based on the result of comparing and judging the first operation prediction information and the second operation prediction information with the means for obtaining the second operation prediction information by adding the physical characteristic information and the operational characteristic information. A means for outputting as travel prediction information and a disclosure request for the output travel prediction information, determining whether the disclosure requester is the permitted disclosure destination, and when the disclosure requester is the permitted disclosure destination, Travel prediction information There are individual travel information presentation system comprising: a means for disclosing.

The techniques corresponding to the above-mentioned respective purposes can be used independently. Of course, it is not limited thereto, and they may be used in combination.

Further, as a technique which can be applied in combination with each of the above-mentioned modes, the prediction information can be corrected in order to improve the accuracy. To do so, do the following:

First, with regard to the above-mentioned first and second prediction information, the transition of the operation record of the travel means (delay expansion / delay reduction)
The prediction information is corrected and calculated by weighting the tendency. Or, the result of comparing the past operation cases of the travel means and the current operation status (90% match the status delayed for the past 10 minutes,
Etc.) and the prediction information is corrected and calculated. Or, regarding travel means, change the situation, implement ratio of measures (for example, there are 10 possible measures, the delay should be recovered by 10 minutes if all measures are implemented, 9 points have been implemented so far, etc.) The weighting is added to calculate the prediction information.
Next, the first prediction information and the second prediction information after the correction calculation are compared and judged. Then, the judgment result is used as final prediction information. As a result, the travel forecast result based on the status of the travel means, the operation record of the travel means, and the operation plan of the travel means is obtained. As described above, highly accurate travel prediction information based on the operating status of the travel means can be obtained.

The following techniques are available as techniques for implementing this type of solution technique. These can be alone or
It can be appropriately combined.

(1) The transition tendency of the operation record of the travel means is obtained, and the operation prediction information is corrected based on this tendency. (2) The past operation cases of the travel means and the current operation status are compared and judged, and the operation prediction information is corrected based on the degree of coincidence between the past operation cases and the current operation status. (3) For the measures for changing the operation status of the travel means, the prediction information is corrected based on the ratio of the executed measures to all the executable measures.

In addition, as a system, the technology consisting of the following means can be used alone or in combination as a constituent element of the system. (1) A means for obtaining the trend of the operation results of the travel means,
And means for correcting the operation prediction information based on the obtained transition tendency. (2) By comparing the past operation cases of the travel means with the means for storing the past operation cases of the travel means and the current operation status, based on the degree of agreement between the past operation cases and the current operation status,
And a means for correcting the operation prediction information. (3) Means for extracting executable recovery measure information from plan information, means for extracting implemented recovery measure information from past and present plan information, recovery from implemented recovery measure information and executable recovery measure information It is provided with a calculation unit for obtaining the implementation ratio of the measure, a unit for obtaining the weight of the prediction correction based on the implementation ratio, and a unit for correcting the prediction information according to the weight.

[0038]

BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. First, an embodiment of the individual travel information providing system of the present invention will be described, and then,
The details of the system will be described in detail.

The individual travel information providing system according to the present embodiment, when a traveller uses a travel means, individually travels to the traveller and a certain person who is permitted to receive the information. It is a system that individually predicts travel information in order to provide information. This system
As shown in FIG. 1, a travel prediction system 1 for predicting travel
The individual travel information presenting system 2 for presenting individual travel information, the individual travel information disclosing system 3 for disclosing individual travel information, and the individual travel information transmitting system for transmitting individual travel information. 4 are combined. These systems may be complete, or some may be omitted. It can also be incorporated into other systems. For example, it may be incorporated in an operation management system described later and function as a part thereof.

As shown in FIGS. 2 and 3, the travel prediction system 1 is based on an operation management system 200 that manages the operation of the travel means 100, and on the basis of information from the operation management system 200, the information for each traveler It is composed of a prediction processing system 300 that performs travel prediction, and a travel information input device 400 that provides the prediction processing system 300 with travel schedule information of individual travelers as prediction target information.

Here, as shown in FIGS. 2 and 3, by connecting an output terminal 500 to the travel prediction system 1, an individual travel information presentation system 2 is constructed.
FIG. 16 shows the functional configuration, and FIG. 3 shows a more specific system configuration.

Further, as shown in FIGS. 4 and 5, by connecting the disclosure processing system 600 to the travel prediction system 1, it is possible to respond to a remote disclosure request by an individual travel information disclosure system. 3 are configured. Figure 4
Shows a functional configuration of the travel prediction information disclosure system 3, and FIG. 5 shows a more specific system configuration.

Furthermore, as shown in FIGS. 6 and 7, a transmission processing system 70 is added to the travel prediction system 1.
By connecting 0, the individual travel information transmission system 4 for transmitting necessary information is configured. FIG. 6 shows a functional configuration of the travel prediction information transmission system 4, and FIG. 7 shows a more specific system configuration.

For connection between the systems and between the constituent elements in each system, for example, a signal transmission medium such as a signal line, a bus, or a LAN, which is suitable for the system, is selected and used.

The travel means 100 means means for moving between points. Specific examples of the transportation means include various means used for traveling, such as railroad routes, air routes, ship routes, bus routes, taxis, and walking.
However, here, the operation management system 100 is mainly used.
It can be managed in. In addition, as a term of travel means, train, aircraft, ship, bus, taxi, etc.
It may also refer to a moving body used for moving and a set of them.

Although only one type of travel means is shown in FIG. 1, it goes without saying that a plurality of travel means, for example, rail, air, bus, etc. can be combined. In that case, the operation management system 200 exists corresponding to each travel means. In the following, for simplicity of explanation, it is assumed that only the railway is used as the travel means 100, and the operation management system 200 is also prepared to manage the operation of the railway. The train control device 110 provided in the travel means 100 sends information such as train running record information to the operation management system 200 via the communication path 101.

The input device 400 reads the travel schedule information (or the travel schedule information) from the travel information storage medium 450 storing the travel schedule information and provides it to the prediction processing system 300 via the signal line 401. Here, the travel schedule information refers to, for example, information such as seat designation information that enables the travel means, travel range, travel date and time to be specified before using the travel means.

The output terminal 500 is composed of a display device for displaying the travel prediction information. For example, a liquid crystal display,
Devices such as CRT displays and LED displays are used. It should be noted that the output terminal 500 may be composed not only of a display, but also of a small computer capable of performing input processing itself. Output terminal 500
Outputs the output from the prediction processing system 300 to the signal line 301.
And display it on the display screen 510 (see FIG. 3).

The disclosure processing system 600 is connected to the client terminal 800 via a communication path. The disclosure processing system 600 and the client terminal 800 perform bidirectional communication. That is, information can be sent from the client terminal 800 to the disclosure processing system 600. Further, the transmission processing system 700 is connected to the receiving terminal 900 via a communication path. The travel processing system 700 transmits travel prediction information to the receiving terminal 900. The communication path is, for example, a communication line such as a telephone or FAX,
It is composed of a modem, TA, etc. as a device for controlling communication. The communication line itself may be any of an analog line, a digital line, a mobile phone line, a PHS line, a terrestrial wave communication path, a satellite communication path, and the like. Further, it may be wireless or wired.

It is to be noted that the various means constituting the individual travel information providing system according to the present invention may be realized by any means. For example, various function realizing circuit structures realized by a relay circuit, a vacuum tube circuit, a transistor circuit, a CMOS circuit, an integrated circuit, and the like, and a control system for performing specific processing on the circuit structure by programming. It can be realized by a program therefor.

Prior to the detailed description of the embodiments, the terms used in the present specification will be outlined in order to facilitate understanding of the invention.

The term "travel means" is used to refer to types of transportation methods between points, such as railroad routes, air routes, ship routes, bus routes, taxis, and walking. Also, especially trains, aircraft, ships, buses, taxis, etc.
It may also refer to a moving body used for moving and a set of them. "Operation management" refers to managing operation of the above-mentioned "traveling means" such as railway control, air traffic control, road control, etc. What is "operation information"?
For example, the estimated time of departure, scheduled time of arrival, estimated time of arrival, etc., actual departure time, actual midway time, actual time of actual arrival time, etc. The information for managing the operation of "travel means" is called as such. Further, the "operation prediction" means, for example, predicting future departure time, midway time, arrival time, etc. of the "travel means".

The "traveler" is a person who moves between points by the above-mentioned "traveling means" and a group thereof. The "passenger guide" means, for example, guide information for using the above "travel means" such as boarding place, departure time, and arrival time, or information resulting from using the above "travel means", and We refer to those sets. In particular, it may refer to the act of passing such information. "Passenger information" means, for example,
The information, such as characters, numbers, symbols, codes, and voices, for expressing the above-mentioned "passenger guide" and a set thereof are referred to, but in particular, the contents thereof may be referred to.

The "operating status" refers to the operating status of the "traveling means" such as the train departure time, train arrival delay, and train arrival time. The "operation status information" refers to information representing the "operation status", such as a character string, a numerical value, and a code.
The "plan" refers to the operation schedule information of the above-mentioned "traveling means" such as a timetable and a timetable. However, it may also refer to a change in operation schedule information. The "actual results" means, for example, the actual departure time of a station with a certain train, the departure delay time of a station with a certain train, the operation history of the "traveling means", and the "plan" and the actual operation. The difference between the two is so called. The "physical characteristics" are physical conditions that determine the operation of the "traveling means" such as the maximum speed of the train, the maximum acceleration of the train, and the distance between the stations. "Operating characteristics" means, for example, the stop time at a station,
It refers to the operational conditions that determine the operation of the above-mentioned "traveling means" such as the time and minutes to confirm the disembarkation.

The "operation prediction" refers to an act of assuming a "travel situation" in the future, for example, obtaining an arrival time that anticipates a delay from the scheduled arrival time.
It may also refer to the result of those actions. The "operation prediction information" refers to information for representing the "operation prediction", such as a character string, a code, a numerical value, and a number. In particular, it may refer to the content of such information.

The "prediction target" refers to, for example, a train, a flight, a car, or the like, which is a target of the "operation prediction" among the "traveling means". The "prediction range" refers to the range of the "operation prediction" in the movement range of the "traveling means" such as between stations, line sections, and routes.

"Presentation" is such an act of presenting information to the target person by using output means such as a speaker, a display, and a printer. "Disclosure" means
For example, the term refers to the act of receiving information managed in another device by the device itself, using information transmission means such as telephone, wireless, and network communication. “Transmission” refers to the act of sending and receiving information by using information transmission means such as telephone, wireless, and network communication.
The “disclosure authorized person” refers to information for identifying the recipient of the “disclosure”, such as name, title, ID, telephone number, and e-mail address. The “disclosure authorized person information” refers to information for indicating the “disclosure authorized person”, such as letters, numbers, and codes.
In particular, it may refer to the content of such information. The "transmission destination" refers to information for identifying the recipient of the "transmission", such as a telephone number and an e-mail address. Further, the "transmission destination information" means information for representing the "transmission destination", such as letters, numbers, and codes. In particular, it may refer to the content of such information.

"Travel" means the above "travel means".
The act of moving between points is so called. “Travel information” refers to the range of use of the above-mentioned “travel means” such as boarding stations, disembarkation stations, transit stations, seat-designated sections, boarding sections, and transit airports. It may also refer to the expression form of travel information such as letters, numbers, and codes.

The “recovery measure” is, for example, a change in order,
By changing the "plan" such as time change, suspension of operation, temporary setting, etc., when the operation of the "traveling means" is disturbed, the work for returning to normal, and its contents. “Stacking” means, for example, to calculate the arrival time of a certain arrival point by adding the required times of a plurality of intermediate sections to the departure time of a certain departure point,
This means to obtain certain end point information by adding a plurality of pieces of difference information to certain start point information.

"Travel schedule information" means, for example, information for specifying a travel means, a travel range, a travel date and time, such as seat designation information, before using the travel means. . Next, the present embodiment will be described in more detail. In FIG. 5, a travel prediction system, an individual travel information presentation system, and an individual travel information disclosure system are described. Therefore, these systems will first be described with reference to FIG.

In FIG. 5, the disclosure processing system 600 is provided in the individual travel information presentation system 2 shown in FIG.
The client terminal 800 is connected. The client terminal 800 includes a communication control device 602 and a communication control device 80.
2 and the disclosure processing system 600 via a communication path (network) 601/801.

The individual travel information presentation system 2 includes a travel information input device 400. This travel information input device 4
00 is composed of, for example, an IC card reader. On the other hand, the travel information storage medium 450 from which information is read by the travel information input device 400 is composed of, for example, an IC card. Here, the travel information storage medium 450 is
Specifically, it is supposed to be used as a ticket and carried by a traveler. Then, the travel information input device 400
Envisions an automatic ticket gate that checks this ticket. By doing so, when the traveler uses the travel means 100, the ticket is passed through the automatic ticket gate, so that the traveler is not aware of the in-card information 451 described in the ticket, which will be described later. There is a merit that the data can be surely read out without requiring a special processing operation. Also, by allowing the traveler to pass the card through the card reader, the travel situation of each traveler and future travel forecasts can be obtained on the spot by the traveler himself, and the travel forecast of a certain traveler can be obtained. The authorized specific person can be obtained in different places. The travel information storage medium 450 and the travel information input device 400 may wirelessly communicate with each other so that the travel information input device 400 reads the contents of the storage medium.

The IC card reader 1910 may be used separately from the ticket reader of the automatic ticket gate, and the display 1950 may be used separately from the display of the automatic ticket gate. In that case, it is possible to secure a sufficient margin in terms of time, capacity, etc. for reading the card and displaying on the display.

In addition to the above, in the present invention, the travel information storage medium 450 may be, for example, a punch card, a magnetic card,
It can be realized by a magneto-optical card, a memory card, a magnetic disk, a magneto-optical disk, an optical disk, or the like.
On the other hand, in response to this, the travel information input device 400 is provided with, for example, a punch card reader, a magnetic card reader, a magneto-optical card reader, a memory card reader, a magnetic disk drive, a magneto-optical disk drive, an optical disk drive,
It can be realized by a keyboard, a touch panel, a pen input device, or the like.

In the travel information storage medium 450, as the in-card information 451, there is traveler information (Mr. A), ticket information (train 1 from station B to station C, train 2 from station C to station D, train 3). It is assumed that disclosure permission person information (Mr. F) is provided as information indicating the stations D to E) and the disclosure destination for which disclosure is permitted. Further, it is assumed that the disclosure-permitted individual information of the in-card information 451 and the information specifying the user of the client terminal 800 match (used by Mr. F). A password or the like may be used as the information indicating the disclosure destination for which disclosure is permitted.

It is possible that the travel information storage medium 450 does not function as a ticket. In this case, what is stored in the travel information storage medium 450 is
This means travel plan information or travel schedule information. It can be said that the ticket information is information embodying information on a travel plan or a travel schedule.

The above-mentioned travel plan information is composed of information such as date and time of use, flight number of travel means, departure point, arrival point and the like. If there are a plurality of these, the list is formed accordingly. As a travel means, a railway is shown, for example, as shown in FIG.

The operation management system 200 constitutes the prediction processing server 10 together with the prediction processing system 300. However, in the present embodiment, the operation management system 200 and the prediction processing system 300 are configured by separate hardware resources. That is, it is configured by an information processing device capable of performing real-time control information processing, such as a control computer. Of course, the same hardware resource may be used to configure each system. In addition, this operation management system 20
As a hardware system configuration of 0, for example, FIG.
The configuration can be similar to the system configuration of the prediction processing system shown in FIG.

The operation management system 200 stores train operation plans and train operation records. 12
(B), FIG. 12 (c) and FIG. 12 (d), and
15 (a), (b) and FIG. 15 (c) show examples of train operation plans and operation records. As can be seen from these figures, the operation plan can be a table of train diagrams. In the illustrated example, each information such as station name, train number, arrival time, departure time, etc. is recorded. The same applies to the operation records. The operation plan and the operation result are different from each other in that the former is a predetermined plan, while the latter is a reflection of the actual operating state of the train, but the data format is common. Information on train operation plans and operation records is stored in a built-in storage device. Note that the operation record is stored by receiving information such as train travel record information from the train control device 110 via the communication path 101 in the operation management system 200.

The operation management system 200 is a train operation management system in the case of a train, but in the case of other travel means, an air traffic control system, a ship control system, a bus operation control system, a taxi radio communication. It can be realized by a system or the like.

The prediction processing system 300 is composed of a computer as shown in FIG. That is, the processing device 3001, the storage device 3002 that stores the programs and data executed by the processing device 3001, the input interface 3003, and the output interface 3004.
It has and. The input interface 3003 and the output interface 3004 are serial, parallel, S
It is configured by a device such as CSI and LAN that can control information input from an external device and information output to the external device. An input terminal 331 is provided. On the other hand, an output terminal 341 is provided on the other side. Moreover, the configuration itself of this computer is general, and it is not necessary to use a special structure.

The processing device 3001 is composed of a workstation including a processor and a memory, a personal computer or the like. As a specific circuit element, for example, a transistor circuit, an IC circuit, an LSI circuit, or the like is configured.

The storage device 3002 is, for example, RA
It is configured by a device capable of storing information such as an M, a ROM, and a magnetic storage device. This storage device 3002
As the data stored in, the prediction target information (travel plan), operation management information (operation plan, operation record), physical characteristic information, operation characteristic information, case information, implemented recovery measure information, and the like are stored. These are managed by the processing device 3001 regarding storage, retrieval, reading, and the like.

The prediction processing system 300 has a function as shown in FIG. That is, the prediction processing means 310,
Various management means 320-350, 370 for performing management such as fetching, storing, and searching various information such as prediction target information and physical characteristic information in the storage device 3002, recovery measure implementation ratio calculation means 380, Achievement change calculation means 360
Composed of and.

The prediction target information management means 320 stores and manages the travel schedule information or travel plan information read by the travel information input device 400.

In FIG. 12, (a) is a data structure of travel plan information, (b) is a data structure of operation plan information (initial state), (c) is a data structure of operation plan information (state after change), (D) shows the data structure of operation record information, (e) has shown the data structure of prediction information, respectively. In FIG. 13, (f) and (g) are data structures of physical characteristic information,
(H), (i), and (j) show the data structure of the operational characteristic information, respectively. In FIG. 14, (k) is a data structure of the performance transition tendency information, (l) is a data structure of the case information,
(M) shows the data structure of implemented policy information and executable policy information, respectively.

Here, the travel plan information is, for example, in the case of a railway, constituted by information such as date, train, departure station, arrival station, etc. that can specify a trip. As described above, it is recorded in the travel information storage medium 450 and is input to the prediction processing system 300 via the travel information input device 400.

The operation plan information is composed of information that can regulate the operation such as a station name, a train number, an arrival time and a departure time in a railway. It should be noted that this information changes and changes depending on the status of the operation record information. Further, the operation record information is composed of information capable of recording the operation result such as a station name, a train number, an arrival time and a departure time in a railway. All of these are supplied from the operation management system 200 to the prediction processing system 300.

For example, in the case of railways, the operation prediction information is composed of information such as station names, train numbers, arrival times, departure times, and the like that can specify future operation predictions.
This is generated and output by the prediction processing system 300.

For the physical characteristic information, for example, in the case of trains, physical constraint conditions for operation such as required time between stations, departure interval, arrival interval, number of usable tracks, number of usable tracks, etc., should be specified. It is composed of information that can be. For example, in the case of a railway, the operation characteristic information is composed of information that can define operational constraints such as minimum stop time, arrival sequence, and departure sequence. These are predetermined and are stored in the storage device 3002 of the prediction processing system 300.
Stored in.

The track record change information is composed of information capable of defining the track change trend of the operation record, such as an increase / decrease trend of delay time at each station in a railway. this is,
In the prediction processing system 300, it is obtained by calculation based on the operation record information.

For example, in the case of railroads, the case information is composed of information that can define past operation status such as station name, train number, initial delay time, delay time at each subsequent station, and the like. This is an accumulation of past cases, and the storage device 3002 of the prediction processing system 300.
It is stored in.

For example, in the case of a railway, train number, type of recovery measure,
It is composed of information that can specify recovery measures, such as the content and extent of recovery measures. These are also stored in the measure and are calculated by the prediction processing system 300 based on the measure.

Of the above-mentioned information, the travel plan information, the operation plan information, the operation record information, the physical characteristic information and the operation characteristic information are sent to the stacking calculation unit 311. The stacking calculation unit 311 performs a stacking calculation from these pieces of information,
Generate prediction information. Further, the correction calculation unit 312 performs correction calculation on the obtained prediction information, and outputs more accurate prediction information. The correction calculation process may be omitted.

The flow of the prediction processing of the prediction processing means 310 will be described with reference to FIGS. 10 and 11.

In FIG. 10, when the process is started, first, the process waits for the input of each information (step 110).
0). Here, if there is information input, after the information input waiting process (step 1100), the prediction target information input process (step 1101) and the record information input process (step 1)
103), a plan information input process (step 1104), a physical characteristic input process (step 1105), and an operation characteristic input process (step 1106). In the prediction target information input process (step 1101), when there are a plurality of travel targets, the information input process for specifying the travel means to be predicted is performed, and then the prediction range information input process (step 1102) is performed. Input processing of information for specifying the range to be performed.

In the record information input processing (step 1103) and the plan information input processing (step 1104), the operation record information and the operation plan information of the travel means 100 are input. Here, the prediction processing system 3 according to the present invention is loaded from the operation management system 200.
00 in the storage device 3002. Then, it is passed to the processing device 3001 as necessary.

Physical characteristic information input process (step 110)
5) and operational characteristic information (step 1106), input processing of physical characteristic information of travel means and input processing of operational characteristic information of travel means are performed. Then, it is passed to the processing device 3001 as necessary.

Thereafter, the process branches to a physical characteristic accumulation process for the actual result (step 1211) and a physical characteristic accumulation process 1201 for the plan.

In the physical characteristic accumulation process for the actual results, the physical characteristic information is added to the input actual result information with respect to the input prediction target and the input prediction range (step 1211). In the subsequent operation characteristic information accumulation processing for the actual results, processing for adding the operation characteristic information to the processing result of the physical characteristic accumulation processing for the actual results (step 1211) is performed with respect to the input prediction target and the input prediction range (step 1211). 1212). Then, a correction process for accumulating the results is performed (step 131).
1). This is a process of correcting the processing result of the operation characteristic accumulation process (step 1212) for the actual result for the input prediction target and the input prediction range according to various conditions.

On the other hand, a physical characteristic accumulation process (step 120) for adding the physical characteristic information to the plan information.
1), operation characteristic information accumulation processing for the processing result of the physical characteristic accumulation processing for the plan (step 120)
2) and the above processing results are corrected according to various conditions (step 1301).

Thereafter, the correction prediction result determination process (step 1
Merge onto 400). In this correction prediction result determination process,
Prediction result determination processing and prediction result information generation processing are performed based on the processing results of the stacking correction processing for the actual results and the stacking correction processing for the plan. In the subsequent correction prediction result output process (step 1500), the generated prediction result information is output.

Thereafter, information input waiting processing (step 110)
Return to 0) and repeat the process.

As described above, travel prediction can be realized by the prediction processing system according to the present invention. In addition,
Accumulation of physical characteristics for actual results (step 121)
The order of 1), the operation characteristic information accumulation processing for the actual results (step 1212), the physical characteristic accumulation processing for the plan (step 1201), and the operation characteristic information accumulation processing for the plan (step 1301) may be interchanged.

Next, the processing of the travel prediction information correction calculation method shown in FIG. 11 will be described. In FIG. 11,
Achievement transition tendency calculation processing (step 1351), past case tendency input processing (step 1352), implementation recovery measure score input processing (step 1353), executable recovery measure score processing (1354), recovery measure implementation ratio calculation processing (step) 1355) and correction weight calculation processing (step 1360) are executed.

The process starting from start 1350 is
The process branches to the result transition tendency calculation processing (step 1351), the past case tendency input processing (step 1352), and the implementation recovery measure score input processing (step 1353).

Actual trend trend calculation processing (step 135
In 1), the process of obtaining the tendency of the transition of the record information stored and managed by the operation information management unit 330 is performed. In the past case tendency input process (step 1352), the tendency information is obtained from the tendency information group in the past cases managed by the case information management unit 370 based on the inputted record information and the inputted plan information. Perform input processing. The implementation recovery measure score input (step 1353) performs a process of inputting the score of the implemented recovery measure from the input plan information.

Input of feasible recovery measure score (Step 13
Step 54) performs a process of inputting the number of points of the recovery measure that has room for implementation, from the input performance information and the input plan information.

Recovery measure implementation ratio calculation processing (step 13
55) is input of implementation recovery measure score (step 1354)
Then, the process of obtaining the already-executed ratio of the recovery policy is performed from the recovery policy score that has been implemented and the recovery policy score that has room to be implemented, which is obtained by the input of possible recovery policy score 440.

Thereafter, the correction weight calculation process (step 136
Join 0). Correction weight calculation processing (step 136)
In 0), the process of calculating the weight of the correction is performed based on the results of the transitional trend calculation process 410 of the actual results, the past case tendency input process 420, and the recovery measure implementation ratio calculation process 450. Then, the process ends (step 1470).

As described above, the correction calculation of the travel prediction information according to the present invention can be realized.

Next, the processing of the prediction result judgment 1400 will be described with reference to FIG.

In the graph of FIG. 17A, the horizontal axis represents time and the vertical axis represents station distance. In this graph, a line segment that is the actual departure time of station A (time 1) 3005 and the actual departure time of station B (time 2) 3010 is shown. Here, physical characteristic information (driving time between station B and station C, etc.) and operation characteristic information (predetermined stop time, etc.) with respect to performance information.
When the stacking process is performed, predicted time 3015 (time 3)
Is required. Here, the stacking process is a physical quantity (here, time) necessary for physical characteristics from the present time, and
This means a process of adding a physical quantity (here, time) necessary for operation to obtain a target physical quantity (here, arrival time). Now, assuming that the departure scheduled time 3020 (time 4) is set for departure from the B station, physical characteristic information (such as operating hours between station B and station C) and operation characteristic information (predetermined time) with respect to the planned time are set. The predicted time 3025 (time 5) is obtained by performing the stacking process for the stop time (for example). Here, the estimated time 3025 (time 5) is calculated by applying the criterion of “not departing earlier than the scheduled time”.
It is adopted as a prediction result.

On the other hand, in FIG.
Reference numerals 3040 and A station departure record time (time 1) and B station departure record time (time 2), respectively. Here, physical characteristic information (driving time between station B and station C, etc.) and operation characteristic information (predetermined stop time, etc.) with respect to performance information
When the stacking process is performed, the predicted time is 3045 (time 3)
Is required. Scheduled departure time 3 for departure from B station
Assuming that 050 (time 4) is set, if physical characteristic information (driving time between station B and station C, etc.) and operation characteristic information (predetermined stop time, etc.) with respect to the planned time are accumulated. , Predicted time 3055 (time 5) is obtained. However, here, "adopt the later time",
The prediction time 3045 (time 3) is adopted as the prediction result by applying the judgment criterion of

As described above, the judgment criteria are applied to the accumulation of results, the accumulation of plans, and the results,
Adopt the prediction result.

In FIG. 17B, the time 3055 (time 5) and the time 3045 (time 3) with probability information may be adopted as the prediction time range and the prediction result.

Next, the prediction correction weighting process will be described with reference to FIGS. 18 (a) to 18 (f).

18 (a) and 18 (c) show the weighting of the correction according to the actual trend, FIG. 18 (b) shows the weighting of the correction according to the past case tendency, and FIG. 18 (d).
FIG. 18E and FIG. 18F show the description of the weighting of the correction based on the recovery measure implementation ratio.

Here, in FIG. 18A, it is assumed that the distance between the stations A and B and the distance between the stations B and C are equal and the traveling conditions are the same. Now, when the traveling between the station A and the station B is delayed, and the actual departure time of the A station is time 1 and the actual departure time of the B station is time 2, the accumulated result of the physical characteristic information and the operational characteristic information is the time. Shall be 3. While the result is a delay between station A and station B, it is predicted that the train will travel between station B and station C at a predetermined time.
-The station C is running faster. On the other hand, if the delay between station A and station B similarly occurs for station B and station C, the arrival time of station C is time 4.

Here, for example, by applying a probability distribution (for example, a standard distribution centering on an intermediate time) between time 3 and time 4, it is possible to perform the correction weighting of the prediction based on the trend transition of the actual results. Similarly, in FIG. 18B, the arrival time of station C is derived from time 5 from the past case similar to the delay between station A and station B. Similarly, time 3
For example, by applying a probability distribution (for example, a standard distribution centering on an intermediate time) to the time points 5, it is possible to perform correction weighting for prediction based on past case tendency.

Further, in FIG. 18C, when train X, train Y, and train Z normally run between station A, station B, and station C, the estimated arrival time at station C is shown.

On the other hand, in FIG. 18 (d),
When train X arrives late between station A and station B (time 2) and travels in a predetermined order and at a predetermined time interval, train X,
The estimated arrival times (time 4, time 5, time 6) of station C of trains Y and Z are shown. Train Y's departure from station B is delayed due to delayed train X (time 3), and train Y's departure from station B is delayed (time 4).
To do. In that case, arrival of train Y at station C is delayed (time 5)
Then, the estimated arrival time is calculated so that the arrival of the train C at the station C is delayed (time 6).

Therefore, as shown in FIG. 18E, when the delayed train X and train Y are changed in the departure order of station B (recovery measure 1), train Y arrives at station C and is predicted. From the time 5 to the time 9, the estimated arrival time at which the delay is reduced is obtained. Similarly, as shown in FIG. 18F, when the delayed train X and train Z are changed in the departure order of station B (recovery measure 2), train Z arrives at station C. From the time 6 to the time 10, the estimated arrival time at which the delay is reduced is obtained.

Therefore, with respect to the feasible recovery measures for train Y (recovery measure 1) and the feasible recovery measures for train Z (recovery measure 1, recovery measure 2), the ratio of the already implemented recovery measures is calculated and implemented. The correction weighting of the prediction can be used as the probability of the predicted time based on the completed recovery measure. For example, when only the recovery measure 1 is implemented, the probability of the train C's predicted arrival time at the station C (time 9) is 100%, and the probability of the train Z's predicted arrival time at the station C (time 11) is 50%.

As described above, the prediction correction weighting according to the present invention can be implemented.

Next, referring to FIG. 19, the accumulation of physical characteristic information and the accumulation of operational characteristic information in the present invention will be described.

In FIG. 19, the departure time (time 1) at station A, and the physical characteristic information, the running time between stations A and B is 3200, and the running time between stations B and C is 322.
0, and the running time 3240 between the stations C and D, the stop time 3210 of the station B as operation characteristic information, and
It is assumed that the stop time 3230 of the station C is given.

Here, when the arrival time at the station D is obtained by accumulating the physical characteristic information and the operational characteristic information, it is as follows. (1) Arrival time of station B is time 1 which is the departure time of station A
Is added to the station running time 3200 between station A and station B to obtain time 2. (2) The departure time of station B is time 2 which is the arrival time of station B.
By adding the stop time 3210 at station B to
It is time 3. (3) Arrival time of station C is time 3 which is the departure time of station B
Is added to the station running time 3220 between station B and station C, the time becomes 4. (4) The departure time of station C is time 4 which is the arrival time of station C.
By adding the stop time 3230 at station C to
It is time 5. (5) The arrival time of station D is time 5 which is the departure time of station C.
3240 is added to the travel time between stations C and D to obtain time 6. As described above, the physical characteristic information and the operational characteristic information can be accumulated.

FIG. 20 shows a flowchart of an example in which the correction calculation is performed in the above-described prediction process, but the correction calculation is not performed. This prediction process is the same as the procedure except steps 1301 and 1311 in FIG. Therefore, the duplicated description will be avoided by giving the same reference numeral. It should be noted that the prediction result determination process (step 1400) and the prediction result output (step 1500) are substantially the same because they are only the difference between processing the corrected one and the uncorrected one. Is.

Next, the information presentation part in the individual travel information presentation system of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG.

FIG. 21 shows a processing flow of the individual travel information presenting method according to the present invention.

In FIG. 21, the prediction processing system 300 is shown.
In addition to the above-described prediction processing, also functions as an individual travel information presentation system. In that case, travel information input waiting processing (5110), travel information input processing (5120),
Prediction target specifying process (5130), prediction range specifying process (5
140), correction prediction processing (5150), actual information / plan information output processing (5160), and correction prediction information display processing (5170).

When the process is started (step 500
0), the prediction processing system 300 proceeds to travel information input waiting processing (step 5110). In the wait for travel information input (step 5110), processing for waiting for input of travel schedule information from a traveler is performed. When the information is input, the process proceeds to the travel information input process (step 5120) to input the travel schedule information from the traveler. Subsequently, in the prediction target specifying process (step 5130), a process of specifying a prediction target from the travel schedule information is performed based on the result of the travel information input process (step 5120). Subsequently, in the prediction range specifying process (step 5140), the prediction range is specified although it is a prediction target, based on the processing results of the travel information input process (step 5120) and the prediction target specifying process (step 5130). Perform processing to

Next, a correction prediction process (step 515)
In 0), based on the processing results of the prediction target specifying process (step 5130) and the prediction range specifying process (step 5140), the correction prediction process is performed on the specific range of the specifying target. Subsequently, the actual result information / plan information output process (step 5160) outputs the actual result information / plan information for the specific target. Subsequently, the correction prediction information output processing (step 5170) outputs the processing result of the correction prediction processing 550.

Thereafter, waiting for travel information input (step 511)
Return to 0) and repeat the process. As described above, the individual travel information presentation method of the present invention can be realized.

Next, the individual travel information disclosure system of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS. 4 and 22. This embodiment can be realized by the system configuration shown in FIG.

First, the individual travel information disclosure system will be described with reference to FIGS. 4 and 22. The individual travel information disclosure system of the present invention is provided in accordance with the travel prediction system 1 as described above, and has the disclosure processing system 600.
Composed by. In addition, the individual travel information disclosure system 3 is connected to the client terminal 800 via a communication path, and requests disclosure of information, permits disclosure of information, provides information, and the like with the client terminal 800.

The disclosed processing system 600 can be constituted by, for example, a computer similar to the above-described prediction processing system 300. As its function, information indicating a person who is permitted to disclose information, that is, the disclosure-permitted-person information storage unit 610 in which the disclosure-permitted-person information is registered, and an input for registering information of the disclosure-permitted person from outside Disclosure permission person information input means 620 that accepts the disclosure request, disclosure request information reception means 630 that accepts the disclosure request from the client terminal 800, and whether the disclosure request is permitted by determining whether the disclosure request is a permitted person. Disclosure permission determining means 640 that determines whether or not the individual travel information of the specific person, which is obtained in the travel prediction system 1 when the disclosure is permitted,
The client terminal 800 that has made a request includes disclosure content information transmitting means for transmitting the information via a communication path.

The disclosure processing system 600 can also be realized by, for example, a computer having a transmitting / receiving function, a fax having an automatic transmitting / receiving function, a telephone having an automatic transmitting / receiving function, and the like.

On the other hand, the client terminal 800 is an ordinary personal computer, a notebook computer, a computer such as an electronic notebook, a telephone having an automatic transmission / reception function,
It is composed of facsimiles. Of course, the product may not be a general-purpose product but a specialized product that can transmit only travel information of a specific individual.

The client terminal 800 has, as its functions, a disclosure target person input means 810 for receiving the input of the disclosure target person information, a disclosure requester information input means for receiving the disclosure requester information, and the disclosure request information. Disclosure request information transmitting means 830 for transmitting the information to the disclosure processing system 600.
And a disclosure content information receiving unit 840 for receiving disclosure content information transmitted from the disclosure processing system 600, and a disclosure content output unit 850 for outputting the received disclosure content.

FIG. 22 shows a processing flow of the individual travel information disclosing method according to the present invention. 22, in the present embodiment, the travel information, the disclosure target person information, and the disclosure permitted person information input waiting processing (step 6105) are the travel information input processing (step 6110) and the prediction target specifying processing (step 6).
115), the prediction range specifying process (step 6120), the correction prediction process (step 6125), the disclosure target person information input process (step 6130), the disclosure authorized person information input process (step 6135), and the information disclosure request reception process (step 6140), information disclosure permission determination processing (step 61)
45) and disclosure information transmission processing (step 615)
0) is represented.

Further, in FIG. 22, the processing after 6200 shows the processing in the client terminal 800. That is, the information disclosure requestor information input process (step 626).
0), information disclosure target person information input processing (step 626)
5), information disclosure request processing (step 6270), disclosure permission determination reception processing (step 6275), result determination processing (step 6280), disclosure information reception processing (step 6)
285), disclosure information output processing (step 6290), and end (step 6295). here,
The information disclosure request process (step 6270), the disclosure permission determination reception process (step 6275), and the disclosure information reception process (step 6285) are processes related to communication between the individual travel information disclosure system 3 and the client system 800. is there.

The process started from the start 6100 proceeds to a process for waiting for input of travel information, disclosure target person information, and disclosure authorized person information (step 6105). Input waiting processing of travel information, disclosure target person information, disclosure authorized person information (step 610)
In step 5), a process of waiting for input of travel information, disclosure target person information, and disclosure authorized person information from a traveler is performed. When the information is input, the process then branches to the travel information input process (step 6110) and the disclosure target person information input process (step 6130).

Travel information input processing (step 6110)
Performs input processing of travel information from a traveler. continue,
The prediction target specifying process (step 6115) performs a process of specifying a prediction target from the travel information based on the result of the travel information input process (step 6110). Subsequently, the prediction range specifying process (step 6120) specifies a prediction range, although it is a prediction target, based on the processing results of the travel information input process (step 6110) and the prediction target specifying process (step 6115). Perform processing to Subsequently, the correction prediction process (step 6125) is based on the processing results of the prediction target specifying process (step 6115) and the prediction range specifying process (step 6120).
The correction prediction process is performed for the specific range of the specific target. Thereafter, the disclosure permission person information input process (step 6135) is merged, and the process proceeds to the information disclosure acceptance process (step 6140).

On the other hand, the disclosure target information input process (step 6
In 130), the input processing of the information specifying the traveler who is the target of the information disclosure is performed. Subsequently, in the disclosure-permitted-person information input processing (step 6135), information input processing for specifying a person who is permitted to disclose information is performed. After that, it joins with the correction prediction process (step 6125) and proceeds to the information disclosure acceptance process (step 6140).

Subsequently, the information disclosure acceptance process (step 61)
In 40), the process of waiting for the information disclosure request information reception from the disclosure requester is performed. Note that the computer of the disclosure processing system 600 processes from step 6140 to step 6150. Therefore, the processing is the disclosure processing system 6
After shifting to 00, the prediction processing system 300 can shift to another processing. Of course, all the processes may be executed using the information processing device of the prediction processing system 300.

Information Disclosure Request When information is received, the process proceeds to information disclosure permission judgment processing (step 6145). In the information disclosure permission determination processing (step 6145), it is determined from the disclosure requester information included in the received information disclosure request information whether the information disclosure requester is the information disclosure permitter. If the person is not an information disclosure authorized person, information disclosure acceptance processing (step 614)
Return to 0). In the case of the information disclosure authorized person, the process proceeds to the information transmission process (step 6150). Information disclosure processing system 600
Then, based on the disclosure requester information and disclosure target person information included in the received information disclosure request information, the process of transmitting the actual information, the plan information, and the prediction information regarding the information disclosure target person to the information disclosure requester is performed. To do. After that, travel information,
The process returns to the input waiting process of the disclosure target person information and the disclosure permitted person information (step 6105) and repeats the processing.

On the other hand, the processing starting from the start 6200 proceeds to the information disclosure requester information input processing (step 6260). Information disclosure requestor information input processing (step 6260)
Then, the information disclosure requestor, that is, the input process of the information for identifying the user is performed. Subsequently, in the information disclosure target person information input processing (step 6165), information input processing for specifying the information disclosure target person is performed.

Subsequently, the information disclosure request process (step 62)
70) includes disclosure requester information and disclosure target person information,
The information disclosure requester information is used to perform an information disclosure request transmission process.

Subsequently, in the disclosure permission judgment receiving process (step 6275), a process of receiving judgment result information of permitting / not permitting information disclosure is performed. Subsequently, in the result judgment processing (6280), when the information disclosure is permitted based on the judgment result information of permitting or not permitting the information disclosure, the processing proceeds to the information receiving processing (step 6285) and the information disclosure is not permitted. In this case, the process proceeds to end (step 6295) and ends.

In the information receiving process (step 6285),
Disclosure information (result information, plan information,
The process of receiving (correction prediction information) is performed. Subsequently, the information output process (step 6285) performs a process of outputting the received disclosure information (actual information, plan information, corrected prediction information), proceeds to the end (step 6290), and ends.

As described above, the individual travel information disclosure system according to the present invention can be realized. It should be noted that the disclosure-permitted-person information input process (step 6235), the information disclosure permission determination process (step 6245), the disclosure permission determination reception process (step 6275), and the result determination process (step 628).
0) and the information disclosure requester information input process (step 6280) may be omitted. In that case, the information will be disclosed to all requesters.

Next, the individual travel information transmission system will be described with reference to FIGS. 6, 7 and 23. The individual travel information transmission system 4 of the present invention, as described above,
The transmission processing system 700 is provided according to the travel prediction system 1. The individual travel information transmission system 4 is connected to the receiving terminal 900 via a communication path and transmits information to the receiving terminal 900. In addition, since the individual travel information is transmitted to a specific destination, the destination is specified in advance.

The transmission processing system 700 can be composed of the prediction processing system 300 described above and a simpler computer. For example, it is realized by a computer having a transmission function, a fax having an automatic transmission function, a telephone having an automatic transmission function, and the like.

The function of this transmission processing system is, as shown in FIG. 6, a transmission destination storing means 710 which stores information indicating a transmission destination specified as a transmission destination of information, and a cell which receives an input of the transmission destination from the outside. It has a transmission destination input means 720 and a transmission content information transmission means 730 for transmitting the transmission content information toward the receiving terminal 900. These functions can be easily realized by a facsimile device capable of registering a destination. Further, the destination may be input each time it is necessary.

Incidentally, the travel information recording medium (IC card) 4
50 is used as a ticket and is carried by travelers. In this case, the travel information input device (IC card reader) 400
Shall be used together with the ticket reader of the automatic ticket gate and the display together with the display of the automatic ticket gate. Further, the IC card reader 400 is used together with the ticket reader of the automatic ticket gate, and the display 1950 is used together with the display of the automatic ticket gate. In this way, as the in-card information 451, traveler information (Mr. A), ticket information (train 1 to station C, train 2 to station C to station D, train 3 to station D to station E), And transmission destination information (phone number: FG-HIJ
K). Further, it is assumed that the transmission destination information of the in-card information 451 and the information specifying the receiving side fax 900 match (phone number: FG-HIJK). When the traveler reads the travel information recording medium (IC card) 450 into the travel information input device (IC card reader) 450, the ticket information is input to the correction prediction device, and
Communication channel.

On the other hand, the receiving terminal 900 has a transmission content information receiving means 910 for receiving the individual travel information transmitted via the communication path 901, and a transmission content output means 920 for outputting the received transmission content. . Here, the output means is, for example, a printer, a display device, or the like. The receiving terminal can be typically composed of a facsimile machine. Further, it can be configured by a small computer. Also, the communication path is an analog telephone line,
It is realized by a digital telephone line, a mobile telephone line, a PHS line, a terrestrial communication channel, a satellite communication channel and the like.

FIG. 23 shows a processing flow of the individual travel information transmission system according to the present invention. In FIG. 23, step 7100 is started, step 7105 is a process of waiting for input of travel information, transmission target information, and transmission destination information, step 71.
10 is travel information input processing, step 7115 is prediction target specification processing, step 7120 is prediction range specification processing, step 7125 is correction prediction processing, step 7130 is transmission target person information input processing, 7135 is transmission destination information input processing,
Reference numeral 7140 represents a transmission information transmission process. In FIG. 23, 7145 is a start, 7150 is a transmission information reception process, 7155 is a transmission information output process, and
7160 indicates the end.

The process started from the start 7100 proceeds to a process of waiting for input of travel information, transmission target person information, and transmission destination information (step 7105). In the process of waiting for input of travel information, transmission target information, and transmission destination information (step 7105), processing for waiting for input of travel information, transmission target information, and transmission destination information from a traveler is performed. When information is input, the process then branches to travel information input processing (step 7110) and transmission target person information input processing (step 7130). In the travel information input process (step 7110), the travel information input process from the traveler is performed.

Subsequently, a prediction target specifying process (step 71
In 15), based on the result of the travel information input process (step 7120), a process of specifying a prediction target from the travel information is performed.

Subsequently, a prediction range specifying process (step 71
20), travel information input processing (step 7110),
Then, based on the processing result of the prediction target specifying process (step 7115), a process of specifying a prediction range although it is a prediction target is performed.

Then, in the correction prediction process (7125),
Based on the processing results of the prediction target specifying process (step 7115) and the prediction range specifying process (7120), the correction prediction process is performed on the specific range of the specifying target. Thereafter, it merges with the transmission destination information input process (step 7135) and proceeds to the transmission information transmission process (step 7140).

On the other hand, transmission target information input processing (step 7
130) performs an input process of information that identifies a traveler who is a target of information transmission. Subsequently, in the transmission destination information input processing (step 7135), information input processing for inputting the information transmission destination is specified. Thereafter, correction prediction processing (step 7125)
And the process proceeds to the transmission information transmission process (step 7140).

Transmission information transmission process (step 7140)
Is actual information, plan information, corrected prediction processing (step 71
25) A process of transmitting corrected prediction information based on the transmission target person information processing (step 7130) and the transmission destination information input process (step 7135) related to the transmission target person to the transmission destination. I do.

Then, the process returns to the input waiting process (step 7105) for the travel information, the transmission target person information and the transmission destination information, and the processing is repeated.

On the other hand, at the receiving terminal 900 side, start 7
The process starting from 145 proceeds to the transmission information receiving process (step 7150). Transmission information reception process (step 715)
0) performs a process of receiving transmission information (actual information, plan information, corrected prediction information) about a transmission target person.

Subsequently, the transmission information information output process (step 7155) performs a process of outputting the received transmission information (actual information, plan information, corrected prediction information), and proceeds to the end (step 7160) and ends.

Here, the processing of step 7140,
Alternatively, the processes of steps 7130 to 7140 are performed by a special transmission processing system, for example, a facsimile. Note that steps 7105 to 714
All the processing up to 0 can be performed by facsimile.

As described above, the individual travel information transmission method according to the present invention can be realized.

Next, an example of screen display of individually provided travel information, passenger guidance information, and the like according to the embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS.

FIG. 24, FIG. 25, FIG. 26, and FIG. 30 show display screen examples when presenting individual travel information according to the present invention. In these figures, an example of a display screen of the output device 2200 is shown. However, the examples described below are not limited to those displayed on the output terminal of the individual travel information presentation system.

In FIG. 24, 2210 represents a screen display, and display 2220 and display 2230 represent time or probability numerical display regarding arrival prediction.

With this, the content of the prediction information can be clearly displayed.

In FIG. 25, reference numeral 2300 represents a screen display, and display 2330 shows the time,
And a probability distribution graph display. Display 23
32 and display 2334 represent the lower limit time and the upper limit time below the judgment threshold value.
Indicates the time corresponding to the maximum value, and the display 2331
Represents the distribution. Thereby, the content of the prediction information can be visually displayed.

In addition to the display 2332 and the display 2334, areas may be divided and the display 2331 may be displayed in a different color for each division. In that case, visual recognition of the predicted information content can be supported. Also, display 2
The 310, the display 2320, and the display 2330 may not be displayed together.

In FIG. 26, reference numeral 2400 represents a screen display, and display 2430 represents a graphic display of the time and the range of the estimated arrival time. Display 2431 represents a graphics display of an analog clock. A display 2432 represents a graphic display of the estimated arrival time and its range in the analog clock display 2431. Thereby, the content of the prediction information can be visually expressed.

The estimated arrival time and range display 2432 may be divided into areas according to the probability distribution, and each division may be displayed in a different color. In that case, visual recognition of the predicted information content can be supported. Note that the display 2410, the display 2420, and the display 2430 may not be displayed together.

In FIG. 30, reference numeral 2800 indicates a screen display, and display 2830 indicates an estimated arrival time, its range,
And, it shows the timetable diagram display. Also, display 2
In 830, the stations are displayed in the vertical direction and the time is displayed in the horizontal direction. Display 2831, display 2832, and display 2833 are displayed.
Represents the station name. Also, display 2834, display 2
835 and display 2836 represent the departure time (actual result) of the station. Furthermore, the display 2838 represents each estimated arrival time range. Thereby, the content of the prediction information can be visually displayed with the information of the past history.

Expected arrival time and range display 243
2 may be divided into regions according to the probability distribution, and each segment may be displayed in a different color. In that case, visual recognition of the predicted information content can be supported. The display 281
0, the display 2820, and the display 2830 may not be displayed together. It should be noted that travel means other than railroad can be similarly displayed.

As described above, individual travel information can be displayed.

Next, FIGS. 27, 28, 29, and 31.
FIG. 3 shows an example of information display of entire travel process of individual travel information display according to the present invention. 27, 28, 29, 31
2200, an output device for individual travel information.

In FIG. 27, 2500 indicates a screen display, and display 2530 and display 2540 are line segments,
Shows the station layout. Display 2510 and display 252
0, display 2550, display 2560 and the like represent the range of the estimated arrival time at each station and the probability thereof. This makes it possible to clearly display the estimated arrival time at each station, its range, and the probability.

In FIG. 28, reference numeral 2600 represents a screen display, and display 2630, display 2640, and the like represent line sections, station arrangements, and the like. The display 2610, the display 2620, and the like represent the range of the estimated arrival time at each station and the probability thereof. Display 2650, display 2670, and display 2670 represent probability distribution graph displays of estimated arrival times at each station. As a result, the estimated arrival time at each station, its range, the probability, and the probability distribution can be visually displayed.

In FIG. 29, 2700 represents a screen display, and display 2730 and display 2740 are line segments,
Shows station layout, etc., display 2710 and display 272
0, a display 2750, and a display 2760 represent a graphic display of an analog clock in the estimated arrival time range and a numerical display of the probability at each station.

Thus, the estimated arrival time at each station,
The range and probability can be displayed visually.

In FIG. 31, reference numeral 2900 represents a screen display, and display 2920 and display 2930 represent line sections, station arrangements and the like. Display 2910, display 29
Reference numeral 40, display 2950, and the like represent a timetable of the arrival times (actual results) up to the present time and a timetable of the estimated arrival time range at each station. As a result, it is possible to visually display the estimated arrival time at each station and its range, together with information on past circumstances. The line section and the station arrangement may be the arrangement of the line section or the arrangement between other means of travel. In that case, the prediction information can be displayed through the entire travel process.

As described above, it is possible to display the entire travel process of the individual travel information display.

Next, another example of the correction calculation that can be used in the prediction processing system of the present invention will be shown. Figure 32
The details of the travel prediction information correction calculation device are shown in FIG.

In FIG. 32, reference numeral 1500 is performance information input means, 1505 is performance information storage means, 1510 is performance transition calculation means, 1515 is case storage means, 1520 is pattern matching calculation means, 1525 is plan information input means, and 1530 is Implementation recovery measure information extraction means, 1535 is a plan information storage means. Further, 1540 is an implemented recovery measure information storage unit, 1545 is a recovery measure implementation ratio calculation unit, 1550 is an executable recovery measure information extraction unit, and 1555 is a prediction correction weight calculation unit.

The means that need to be operated among these means are basically realized by software. However, means that can be realized by a hardware circuit may be realized by hardware. The hardware components are realized by, for example, a relay circuit, a vacuum tube circuit, a transistor circuit, a CMOS circuit, an integrated circuit, or the like. Further, the same central processing means may be realized by dividing the same time allocation during programming or adjusting the processing order for a plurality of kinds of means for executing processing by software. .

Of these means, the means used for storage is realized by, for example, a punch card, a magnetic card, a magneto-optical card, a memory card, an IC card, a magnetic disk, a magneto-optical disk, an optical disk, or the like. . The same memory or the like can be used for a plurality of types of means.

Next, the correction processing shown in FIG. 15 will be described with reference to the drawings.

The record information input means 1500 uses the route 150.
The record information is input through the process 1. The record information input means 1500 displays the record information as the route 1504 and the route 15
02 and via the path 1518 to the actual result information storage means 1585, the actual result transition calculation means 1510, and the pattern matching calculation means 1520, respectively. Further, the performance information storage unit 1505 stores the received performance information and stores the past performance information in the route 1506.
Through the actual number calculation means 1510.

The actual result transition calculating means 1510 uses the route 150.
5, obtained from the record information storage means 1505,
The transition of the actual result is obtained from the past actual result information and the actual result information obtained from the actual result information input unit 1500 via the route 1502, and the result is sent to the prediction correction weight calculation unit 1555 via the route 1512.

The case storage unit 1515 stores past case information and sends it to the pattern matching calculation unit 1520 via the route 1516.

The plan information input means 1525 uses the route 152.
The process of inputting the plan information is performed via 4. The plan information input unit 1520 sends the plan information to the pattern matching calculation unit 1520 via the route 1513, the route 1526, the route 1534, and the route 1551, respectively.
Implementation recovery measure information extraction unit 1530, plan information storage unit 1535, and executable recovery measure information extraction unit 15
Send to 50.

The pattern matching calculation means 1520 is
The received performance information and plan information are compared with the received case information, and the comparison processing is performed, and the pattern matching information is sent to the prediction correction weight calculation means 1555 via the path 1522.

The plan information storage means 1535 stores the received plan information, and stores the past plan information via the route 1536 in the implementation recovery measure information extraction means 1530.
Send to. The implementation recovery measure information extraction means 1530 uses the route 1
Implementation recovery measure information is extracted from the past plan information obtained from the plan information storage unit 1535 via 536 and the plan information obtained from the plan information input unit 1525 via the route 1526, and the result is extracted. , Through the path 1532 to the implemented recovery measure information storage unit 1540.

The implemented recovery measure information storage means 1540 is
The received recovery measure information is stored, and the recovery measure implementation ratio calculation means 154 is also performed via the route 1542.
Send to 5. The feasible recovery measure information extraction means 1550
Executable recovery measure information is extracted from the plan information obtained from the plan information input unit 1520 via the route 1551, and the result is sent to the recovery measure implementation ratio calculation unit 1545 via the route 1552.

The recovery policy implementation ratio calculation means 1545 obtains the recovery policy implementation ratio from the received recovery policy information and practicable recovery policy information, and outputs the result to the route 15
It sends to the prediction correction weight calculation means 1555 via 46.

The predictive correction weight calculation means 1555 obtains a predictive correction weight from the received record transition information, pattern matching information with past cases, and recovery measure implementation ratio information, and outputs the result via the route 1556. To do.

As a result, it is possible to realize the travel prediction information correction calculation device according to the present invention.

In the individual travel information providing system of the present invention, the input of some data may trigger the provision of travel information. In the case of the above-described predictive processing system, for example, there is an input waiting state (step 1100) as shown in FIG. By the way, in the example shown in FIG. 10, there are three pieces of data that can be input according to external circumstances when there is an input wait, that is, prediction target information, actual information, and plan information. Therefore, it can be said that there are cases shown in FIGS. 33 to 35 as a case where the prediction processing system triggers the start of processing after waiting for input.

In the case of FIG. 33, since the prediction target information / prediction range information input waiting (step 1100-1) is entered, when the prediction target information is input, it is triggered,
Start reading other information. In the case of FIG. 34, the input of the record information is used as a trigger (step 1100-2).
Therefore, when the record information is input, other information is read and the correction prediction calculation is executed. Similarly, in the case of FIG. 35, waiting for plan information input (step 1100-3)
Then, it waits, and when the plan information is entered, it triggers the reading of other information.

Next, regarding the generation of the travel prediction information, as shown in FIG.
A more specific description will be given with reference to FIGS. 12 to 16. 12, FIG. 13, FIG. 14, FIG. 15, and FIG. 16 show the flow of information regarding travel prediction and the configuration of each information according to the present invention.

In FIG. 12, (a) is a structure of travel plan information, (b) is a structure of operation plan information (initial state),
(C) Structure of operation plan information (state after change), (d)
Shows the structure of the operation record information, and (e) shows the structure of the prediction information. In FIG. 13, (f) and (g) show the configuration of physical characteristic information, and (h), (i), and (j) show the configuration of operational characteristic information, respectively. In FIG. 14, (k) shows the configuration of the performance transition tendency information, (l) shows the configuration of the case information, and (m) shows the configuration of the implemented policy information and the implementable policy information, respectively.

[0198] The travel plan information is composed of information that can specify a trip, such as the date, train, departure station, arrival station, etc., on a railroad, for example. The operation plan information is composed of information that can regulate the operation such as a station name, a train number, an arrival time, and a departure time in a railway. It should be noted that this information changes and changes depending on the status of the operation record information. The operation record information is, for example, for railways, station name, train number, arrival time, departure time,
It is composed of information that can record operation results. The operation prediction information is, for example, for railways, the station name,
It consists of information such as train numbers, arrival times, departure times, and other information that can specify future operation forecasts.

For the physical characteristic information, for example, in the case of railways, physical constraint conditions for operation such as required time between stations, departure interval, arrival interval, number of usable tracks, number of usable tracks, etc., should be specified. It is composed of information that can be. For example, in the case of a railway, the operation characteristic information is composed of information that can define operational constraints such as minimum stop time, arrival sequence, and departure sequence.

[0200] The track record transition information is composed of information capable of defining the track trend of the operation record, such as an increase / decrease trend of delay time at each station in a railway.

For example, in case of a railway, the case information is composed of information that can define past operation status such as station name, train number, initial delay time, delay time at each subsequent station, and the like.

The implemented recovery measure information and the executable recovery measure information are, for example, in the case of railroads, the train number, the type of recovery measure,
It is composed of information that can specify recovery measures, such as the content and extent of recovery measures.

The travel plan information is the prediction target information management means 3
20 via the route 3905, the stacking calculation unit 311
Sent to. The operation plan information and the operation record information are sent from the operation management information management unit 330 to the stacking calculation unit 311 via the route 3915. The physical characteristic information is sent from the physical characteristic information managing means 340 to the stacked arithmetic unit 311 via the path 3925. The operation characteristic information is sent from the operation characteristic information managing means 350 to the stacking calculation unit 311 via the route 3935.

The stacking calculation unit 311 performs stacking calculation from these pieces of information to generate prediction information. Here, the travel schedule information (a) is {date, train number, departure station, arrival station} = {○ month ○ day,
Y, C, E}, the corresponding operation plan information (b) is {train, departure station, departure time, arrival station, arrival time} =
{Y, C, 10: 40, E, 10: 57}. The operation record information (d) is {train, station, arrival time, departure time} = {X, A, ----,
10:00}, {Y, A, ----, 10:25}, {X, B, 10: 3
At 0, ----}, train B's arrival time at station B is delayed by 15 minutes, so
Based on this operation record information (d), physical characteristic information (f) {required time for limited express, required time for normal} = {7.5, 15.0} {departure interval, arrival interval} = {5.0, 5.0} and operation Characteristic information (h) {Minimum stop time of limited express, Minimum stop time of normal} = {2.5, 5.
0}, {station, first arrival, last arrival} = {A, X, Y}, {B, X,
Y}, {C, X, Y}, {D, Y, X}, {E, Y,
X} {Station, starter, starter} = {A, X, Y}, {B, X,
Y}, {C, Y, X}, {D, Y, X}, {E, Y,
Operation estimation information (e), by accumulating while maintaining the order of X}, {train, departure station, departure time, arrival station, arrival time} =
Find {Y, C, 10:55, E, 11:12}.

The pile-up calculation unit 311 sends the prediction information to the correction calculation unit 312 via the route 3975.

The correction calculation unit 312 receives the history change tendency information from the history change calculation means 360 via the route 3945. The correction calculation unit 312, via the path 3955,
The degree of matching with the case information is received from the pattern matching means 370. The correction calculation unit 312 receives the recovery policy implementation ratio information from the recovery policy implementation ratio calculation unit 380 via the route 3965.

The actual result transition calculation means 360 comprises a pattern matching means 370 and a recovery measure implementation ratio calculation device 3960.
Are route 3916, route 3917, route 39, respectively.
The operation record information and the operation plan information are received from the train operation management means 330 via 18.

The actual result transition information (k) is obtained by delaying the arrival of the train B at the station B, and obtains {station, delay tendency} = {B, +15}.

As case information (l), for the initial delay of 20 minutes from arrival of train X at station B, {train, station, final delay} = {X, B, 18}, {X,
C, 16}, {X, D, 14}, {X, E, 12},
{Y, B, 15}, {Y, C, 13}, {Y, D, 1
1}, {Y, E, 9}, it is possible to obtain the degree of matching by obtaining the difference in delay time between the record information after the station B and the case information.

[0210] Further, the rate of implementation of the recovery measure is to change the departure order of the train X and the train Y at the station B and the arrival order of the train X and the train Y at the station C, respectively. The ratio of the implemented recovery measures to the executable recovery measures that the train Y can avoid will be calculated.

The correction calculation unit 312 corrects the prediction information from the performance transition tendency information (k), the information on the degree of agreement with the case information (k), and the ratio information on the completed recovery measure (m) to the executable recovery measure. , The corrected prediction information to the route 39
Output from 85. Thereby, the configuration and processing of each information can be performed.

FIGS. 15 and 16 show changes in train operation results, train operation plans, and train operation predictions based on the above-described processing flow.

[0213]

According to the present invention, the following effects can be obtained.

1. It is possible to acquire highly accurate travel schedule information for each traveler based on the operating status of the travel means.

2. It is possible to obtain travel schedule information for each traveler.

3. Individual travel schedule information of a traveler can be sent to a specified destination or a requested destination.

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an outline of an individual travel information presentation system of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing only a presentation part of the individual travel information presentation system of the present invention.

FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram showing only a presentation part of the individual travel information presentation system of the present invention.

FIG. 4 is a travel prediction information presentation system of the present invention,
The block diagram which shows the system which can also perform a disclosure process besides presentation.

FIG. 5 is a travel prediction information presentation system of the present invention,
Explanatory drawing which shows the system which can also perform a disclosure process other than presentation.

FIG. 6 is a travel prediction information presentation system of the present invention,
The block diagram which shows the system which can also perform transmission processing besides presentation.

FIG. 7 is a travel prediction information presentation system of the present invention,
Explanatory drawing which shows the system which can also perform transmission processing other than presentation.

FIG. 8 is a block diagram showing an example of a hardware system configuration of the prediction processing system of the present invention.

FIG. 9 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration of the prediction processing system of the present invention.

FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing a processing flow in the prediction processing system of the present invention.

FIG. 11 is a flowchart when correction is performed in the prediction process.

FIG. 12A is an explanatory view showing a data structure of travel plan information, FIG. 12B is an explanatory view showing a data structure of operation plan information (initial state), and FIG. 12C is operation plan information (state after change). Is an explanatory view showing the data structure of the operation record information, (d) is an explanatory view showing the data structure of the operation record information, and (e) is an explanatory view showing the data structure of the prediction information.

13 (f) and (g) are explanatory diagrams showing a data structure of physical characteristic information, and (h), (i) and (j) are explanatory diagrams showing a data structure of operational characteristic information.

FIG. 14 (k) is an explanatory diagram showing a data structure of performance transition tendency information, (l) is an explanatory diagram showing a data structure of case information, and (m) is a data structure of implemented measure information and implementable measure information. FIG.

15A is an explanatory diagram of information indicating a travel plan, FIG. 15B is an explanatory diagram showing a train operation plan, and FIG. 15C is an explanatory diagram showing an example of train operation results and operation predictions.

16 (d) is an explanatory diagram showing an example of train operation results and operation predictions, and FIG. 16 (e) is an explanatory diagram showing an example of train operation results and operation predictions under conditions different from those in the above (d).

17A is a graph showing a prediction result obtained by stacking physical characteristic information and operational characteristic information on performance information, and FIG. 17B is a graph showing physical characteristic information and operational characteristic information stacking processing on performance information. The graph which shows the other prediction result obtained by doing.

FIG. 18 (a) is a graph showing a weighting result of correction according to a trend trend of performance, (b) is a graph showing a weighting result of correction according to a tendency of past cases, and (c) is a weighting result of correction according to a trend trend of performance. Graphs shown, (d), (e)
And (f) are graphs showing the weighting result of the correction based on the recovery measure implementation ratio.

FIG. 19 is a graph showing accumulation of physical characteristic information and accumulation of operational characteristic information in the present invention.

FIG. 20 is a flowchart showing an example of a prediction process in which correction calculation is not performed.

FIG. 21 is a flowchart showing the flow of processing of an individual travel information presentation method according to the present invention.

FIG. 22 is a flowchart showing the flow of processing for disclosing individual travel information according to the present invention.

FIG. 23 is a flowchart showing the flow of processing of an individual travel information transmission system according to the present invention.

FIG. 24 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a display screen when presenting individual travel information according to the present invention.

FIG. 25 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a display screen when presenting individual travel information according to the present invention.

FIG. 26 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a display screen when presenting individual travel information according to the present invention.

FIG. 27 is an explanatory diagram showing a display screen example of information display of entire travel process of individual travel information display.

FIG. 28 is an explanatory view showing an example of a display screen for displaying the entire travel process information display of the individual travel information display.

FIG. 29 is an explanatory view showing an example of a display screen for displaying information on entire travel process of individual travel information display.

FIG. 30 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a display screen when presenting individual travel information according to the present invention.

FIG. 31 is an explanatory view showing an example of a display screen for displaying information on entire travel process of individual travel information display.

FIG. 32 is a block diagram showing details of a travel prediction information correction calculation device.

FIG. 33 is a flowchart showing an example of starting a prediction process when prediction target information is input.

FIG. 34 is a flowchart showing an example of starting a prediction process when record information is input.

FIG. 35 is a flowchart showing an example of starting prediction processing when plan information is input.

[Explanation of symbols]

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 ... Travel prediction system, 2 ... Individual travel information presentation system, 3 ... Individual travel information disclosure system, 100 ... Travel means, 200 ... Operation management system, 300 ... Prediction processing system, 310 ... Prediction processing means, 311 ... Stack processing section 312 ... Correction calculation processing unit, 320 ... Prediction target information management means, 330 ... Operation management information management means, 340 ... Physical characteristic information management means, 350 ... Operation characteristic information management means, 3
60 ... Actual result transition calculation means, 370 ... Pattern matching means, 380 ... Recovery measure implementation ratio calculation means, 381 ... Implemented recovery measure information management means, 400 ... Travel information input device, 450 ... Travel information storage medium, 451 ... In card Information, 500 ... Output terminal, 510 ... Display screen, 600 ... Disclosure processing system, 610 ... Disclosure authorized person information storage means, 6
20 ... Disclosure authorized person information input means, 630 ... Disclosure request information receiving means, 640 ... Disclosure permission determining means, 650 ... Disclosure content information transmitting means, 700 ... Transmission processing system, 710 ...
Transmission destination information storage means, 720 ... Transmission destination information input means, 7
30 ... Transmission content information transmission means, 800 ... Client terminal, 810 ... Disclosure target person information input means, 820 ... Disclosure requester information input means, 830 ... Disclosure request information transmission means, 8
40 ... Disclosure content information receiving means, 850 ... Disclosure content outputting means, 900 ... Receiving terminal, 3001 ... Processing device, 3002
... storage device, 3003 ... input interface, 3004
… Output interface.

─────────────────────────────────────────────────── ─── Continuation of the front page (56) Reference JP-A-9-97282 (JP, A) (58) Fields investigated (Int.Cl. ⁷ , DB name) G06F 17/60 112 B21L 25/02 G06F 19 / 00 100

Claims (17)

(57) [Claims] 1. A method of predicting the operation of a travel means , comprising:
Operation record information including actual arrival time and departure time,
Obtaining step, and the name of the waypoint for each waypoint through which the travel means passes,
Operation plan information including arrival time and departure time is stored
Corresponding to the operation record information from the first storage means
Total operation from the last halfway point to the arrival point
A first reading step of reading image information, and physical characteristic information including required time of each intermediate section of the travel means.
Information and the stop time at each waypoint of the travel means
From the second storage means in which the operating characteristic information is stored,
Is it the last waypoint that has already passed, which corresponds to the operation record information?
Reads physical property information and operational property information from the arrival point to the arrival point
The second reading step and the operation result information are read in the second reading step.
Accumulation of the physical property information and the operational property information
When arriving from the last halfway point to the arrival point
The calculation step for calculating the time and the operation record information calculated in the calculation step.
Arrival time from the last halfway point to the arrival point
And the operation read in the first reading step
From the last halfway point where the planning information has passed to the arrival point
Compare the arrival time, adopt the later arrival time, and
Predict the arrival time from the last halfway point to the arrival point
An operation prediction method for a travel means , comprising: an operation prediction step for measuring . 2. A system for predicting the operation of a travel means , comprising:
Enter operation record information including actual arrival and departure times
The means of acquisition and the name of the waypoint for each waypoint through which the travel means passes,
Operation plan information including arrival time and departure time is stored
Corresponding to the operation record information from the first storage means
Total operation from the last halfway point to the arrival point
First read-out means for reading out image information, and physical characteristic information including required time of each intermediate section of the travel means
Information and the stop time at each waypoint of the travel means
From the second storage means in which the operating characteristic information is stored,
Is it the last waypoint that has already passed, which corresponds to the operation record information?
Reads physical property information and operational property information from the arrival point to the arrival point
The second reading means and the second reading means read the operation record information.
By accumulating the physical property information and the operational property information
The arrival time from the last halfway point to the arrival point
The calculation means for calculating and the passing of the operation record information calculated by the calculation means
The arrival time from the last waypoint to the arrival point, and the first
Passed the operation plan information read by the reading means
Compare the arrival time from the last halfway point to the arrival point
However, the later arrival time is used and the
Operation forecaster that predicts the arrival time from the midpoint to the arrival point
An operation prediction system for travel means, characterized by having steps . 3. The operation prediction method according to claim 1, wherein each operation is based on the operation record information and the operation plan information.
Calculate the increase / decrease trend of delay time at the midway point and
Has been calculated in the calculation step using
Correct the arrival time from the last waypoint to the arrival point
An operation prediction method for a travel means , further comprising the step 1 of correction . 4. The operation prediction system according to claim 2, wherein each operation is based on the operation result information and the operation plan information.
Calculate the increase / decrease trend of delay time at the midway point and
The last halfway through which the calculation means calculated using
First correction hand to correct the arrival time from the point to the arrival point
An operation prediction system for a travel means , which further comprises steps . 5. The operation prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the trip means includes a delay time for each waypoint through which the travel means passes.
From the third storage means in which a number of past case information items are stored,
The last pass that has been passed through, which is associated with the operation record information.
Read multiple past delay times from midpoint to arrival point
And a plurality of past pasts read in the third reading step.
Calculated in the calculation step using the delay time
The arrival time from the last halfway point to the arrival point
And a second correction step for correcting the travel means. 6. The operation prediction system according to claim 2 , wherein the trip means includes a delay time for each waypoint through which the travel means passes.
From the third storage means in which a number of past case information items are stored,
The last pass that has been passed through, which is associated with the operation record information.
Read multiple past delay times from midpoint to arrival point
And a plurality of past delays read by the third reading means.
The last time passed, calculated by the calculation means using time
The second to correct the arrival time from the midway point to the arrival point
An operation prediction system for travel means , further comprising correction means . 7. The operation prediction method according to claim 1, wherein delay recovery measure information is stored when the travel means is delayed.
It is possible to correspond to the operation record information from the stored fourth storage means.
The fourth read that reads the possible delay recovery measure information
And the delay recovery measure read in the fourth read step.
Delay recovery time when delay recovery is executed based on information
And calculate the delay step using the delay recovery time.
Arrival point from the last halfway point that has already been calculated in
A third correction step for correcting the arrival time up to
A method of predicting the operation of a travel means, characterized by having 8. The operation prediction system according to claim 2, wherein delay recovery measure information is stored when the travel means is delayed.
It is possible to correspond to the operation record information from the stored fourth storage means.
The fourth read that reads the possible delay recovery measure information
Means and delay recovery measure information read by the fourth reading means
Calculate the delayed recovery time when performing delayed recovery based on
Then, the calculation means calculates using the delay recovery time.
Arrival time from the last halfway point to the arrival point
And a third correction means for correcting the above . 9. A method of presenting travel forecast information of a travel means individually for each traveller, in which each travel means of each traveller has already passed by the present time.
Operation record including actual arrival and departure times at the midpoint
Information acquisition step to obtain information, and the way of travel through the travel means provided for each traveler
Includes the name of the waypoint for each point, arrival time, and departure time
From the first storage means in which operation plan information is stored,
The last that has been passed, which is associated with the operation record information for each person
Operation plan information for each traveler from the midway point to the arrival point
Physical characteristic information including a first reading step for reading and required time for each intermediate section of the travel means
And, including the stopping time at each middle ground point through which the travel means
From the second storage means in which the operational characteristic information is stored,
From the last halfway point that has already passed corresponding to the operation record information
Reads physical property information and operational property information up to the arrival point
The second read step and the second read step in the operation record information for each traveler.
The physical characteristic information and the operational characteristic information read in
From the last halfway point where information has been accumulated and passed to the arrival point
Of the operation record information for each traveler calculated in the calculation step
Arrival time from the last halfway point to the arrival point
And for each traveler read in the first reading step
Arrival point from the last halfway point that has already passed the operation plan information
Compare the arrival time up to and adopt the later arrival time
When arriving from the last halfway point to the arrival point
Operation prediction step to predict the time and arrival for each traveler predicted in the operation prediction step
An output step of outputting time, and an individual travel information presenting method. 10. In an individual travel information presenting system for presenting the travel forecast information of each travel means to each traveller, each travel means of each traveller has already passed by the present time.
Operation record including actual arrival and departure times at the midpoint
How to obtain information, and the way that the travel means are provided for each traveler
Includes the name of the waypoint for each point, arrival time, and departure time
From the first storage means in which operation plan information is stored,
The last that has been passed, which is associated with the operation record information for each person
Operation plan information for each traveler from the midway point to the arrival point
Physical characteristic information including the first reading means for reading and the time required for each intermediate section of the travel means
And including the stop time at each intermediate point of travel
From the second storage means in which the operational characteristic information is stored,
From the last halfway point that has already passed corresponding to the operation record information
Reads physical property information and operational property information up to the arrival point
The second read-out means and the second read-out means are added to the operation record information for each traveler.
The read-out physical characteristic information and operational characteristic information
From the last halfway point that has been stacked and passed to the arrival point
Calculation means for calculating the arrival time and passage of the operation record information for each traveler calculated by the calculation means
The arrival time from the last halfway point to the arrival point, and
Operation plan for each traveler read by the first reading means
Arrival from the last halfway point where information has been passed to the arrival point
Compared with the time, adopted the later arrival time, and passed
Predict the arrival time from the last midway point to the arrival point
And the arrival time of each traveler predicted by the operation prediction means
An individual travel information presentation system, comprising: 11. The individual travel information presenting method according to claim 9, wherein the travel is predicted from an external system in the operation prediction step.
Reception step for receiving transmission request of arrival time for each person
Then, the transmission request is accepted and the operation prediction step is performed.
A transmission step of transmitting the measured arrival time of each traveler,
A method for presenting individual travel information , further comprising: 12. The individual travel information presentation system according to claim 10, for each traveler predicted by the operation prediction means from an external system.
Receiving means for receiving the transmission request of the arrival time of the
And a transmission means for transmitting the arrival time of each traveler,
An individual travel information presentation system characterized by having . 13. The individual travel information presenting method according to claim 11 , wherein the receiving step further receives destination information for each traveler.
Acceptance, the transmission step is accepted in the acceptance step
The only destination, and transmits the arrival time of each traveler who predicted in the operation prediction step
A method for presenting individual travel information, which is characterized by the following. 14. The individual travel information presentation system according to claim 12 , wherein the reception means further receives destination information for each traveler.
The transmitting means, to the destination received by the receiving means,
Send the arrival time for each traveler predicted by the operation prediction means
An individual travel information presentation system characterized by: 15. The individual travel information presenting method according to claim 9, wherein the output step is the travel obtained by the input step.
Individual travel information presenting method characterized by further outputting the operation record information of each person . 16. Travel forecast information for travel means is provided for each traveler.
In the individual travel information presentation system to be presented, the travel means of each traveler have already passed through each route.
Operation record including actual arrival and departure times at the midpoint
How to obtain information, and the way that the travel means are provided for each traveler
Includes the name of the waypoint for each point, arrival time, and departure time
Shows the operation plan information and the destination of the operation plan information
From the first storage means in which the presentation destination information is stored,
The last that has been passed, which is associated with the operation record information for each person
Operation plan information for each traveler from the midway point to the arrival point
Physical characteristic information including the first reading means for reading and the time required for each intermediate section of the travel means
And including the stop time at each intermediate point of travel
From the second storage means in which the operational characteristic information is stored,
From the last halfway point that has already passed corresponding to the operation record information
Reads physical property information and operational property information up to the arrival point
The second read-out means and the second read-out means are added to the operation record information for each traveler.
The read-out physical characteristic information and operational characteristic information
From the last halfway point that has been stacked and passed to the arrival point
Calculation means for calculating the arrival time and passage of the operation record information for each traveler calculated by the calculation means
The arrival time from the last halfway point to the arrival point, and
Operation plan for each traveler read by the first reading means
Arrival from the last halfway point where information has been passed to the arrival point
Compared with the time, adopted the later arrival time, and passed
Predict the arrival time from the last midway point to the arrival point
And the presentation information for each traveler from the first storage means.
Trips that are predicted and predicted by the operation prediction means at the presentation destination
And a transmission means for transmitting the arrival time of each person.
A featured individual travel information presentation system. 17. Travel forecast information for travel means is provided for each traveler.
In the individual travel information presentation system to be presented, the travel means of each traveler have already passed through each route.
Operation record including actual arrival and departure times at the midpoint
How to obtain information, and the way that the travel means are provided for each traveler
Includes the name of the waypoint for each point, arrival time, and departure time
From the first storage means in which operation plan information is stored,
The last that has been passed, which is associated with the operation record information for each person
Operation plan information for each traveler from the midway point to the arrival point
Physical characteristic information including the first reading means for reading and the time required for each intermediate section of the travel means
And including the stop time at each intermediate point of travel
From the second storage means in which the operational characteristic information is stored,
From the end of the middle point passing already corresponding to the operation performance information
Reads physical property information and operational property information up to the arrival point
The second read-out means and the second read-out means are added to the operation record information for each traveler.
The read-out physical characteristic information and operational characteristic information
From the last halfway point that has been stacked and passed to the arrival point
Calculation means for calculating the arrival time and passage of the operation record information for each traveler calculated by the calculation means
The arrival time from the last halfway point to the arrival point, and
Operation plan for each traveler read by the first reading means
Arrival from the last halfway point where information has been passed to the arrival point
Compared with the time, adopted the later arrival time, and passed
Predict the arrival time from the last midway point to the arrival point
Operation prediction means for each traveler and each traveler predicted by the operation prediction means from an external system
Request for disclosure of the arrival time of and the target person information of the disclosure request
And the subject information received by the accepting means is
It is determined whether or not it is stored in the stored third storage means.
And the subject information is stored in the third storage means.
If the disclosure permission determination means permits disclosure, and if the disclosure permission determination means permits disclosure , the operation
Transmission that transmits the arrival time of each traveler predicted by the prediction means
Means and individual travel information presentation system characterized by having
Tem.