JPH09259192A - Ordering quantity determination device - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To determine the optimum ordering quantity of commodities at all times by determining the ordering quantity according to ordering variation for every the day of week and day when commodities are purchased. SOLUTION: A device A1 automatically determines the ordering quantity of commodities whose stock volume decreases below an ordering point. Here, a data base (1st memory) 1 stores ordering result data generated by statistically processing past ordering quantities for every commodity. A No.1 file (2nd memory) 2 is stored previously with day-of-the-week and data data regarding a service day calendar. A coefficient arithmetic part 3a calculates coefficients by weeks and coefficients by days from the stored ordering result data and day-of-the-week and data data according to a specific rule. An ordering quantity arithmetic part 3d calculates the ordering quantities of the respective commodities by operating constant ordering quantities which are previously set for every commodity or basic ordering quantities as differences between stock levels at ordering points and current stock volumes by the calculated coefficients for every week and coefficient for every day respectively.

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to an order quantity determining device, and more particularly, to an apparatus for determining an order quantity of a product in accordance with fluctuations in orders received each day of the week or day when the product is purchased.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Heretofore, the following methods have been used as methods for determining the order quantity of a product in accordance with the fluctuation in the order received for each day of the week and for the date of purchasing the product. (1) In the method disclosed in Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 2-72476, the coefficient such as weather and day of the week is set in advance, and the order quantity is multiplied by this coefficient to adjust the order quantity. (2) In the method disclosed in Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 4-353970, weather and daily sales results are stored in a database and used as an order quantity.

[0003]

The conventional order quantity determination method as described above has the following problems. (1) In the method disclosed in Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 2-72476, since the coefficient is set in advance, it is necessary to manually adjust the coefficient. (2) In the method disclosed in Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 4-353970, since data is stored for each day, there is a possibility that the value will be too small when a holiday is included in that day. The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances, and an object of the present invention is to provide an order quantity determination device that can always determine an optimum order quantity of a product.

[0004]

[Means for Solving the Problems] To achieve the above object, the first invention is an apparatus for automatically determining the order quantity of a product whose inventory quantity is below the order point, and the past order quantity for each product. First memory for storing order result data created by statistically processing data, second memory for storing day / date data related to a business day calendar in advance, and the order result data and day stored for each of the above A coefficient calculation unit that calculates a coefficient for each day of the week and a coefficient for each day from date data according to a predetermined rule, and a preset quantitative order quantity for each product or an inventory level at the ordering point and the current stock. It is characterized by comprising an order quantity calculation unit for calculating the order quantity of each product by multiplying the difference between the basic order quantity and the coefficient calculated for each day of the week and the coefficient calculated for each day. Order quantity It is configured as a device. Second
The invention of claim 1 is an apparatus for automatically determining the order quantity of a product whose inventory quantity is less than the order point, and stores the order record data created by statistically processing the past order quantity of each product.
Memory, the second memory for storing the day of the week / date data related to the business day calendar in advance, and the order result data and the day of the week / date data stored in each of the above, according to a predetermined rule, the coefficient and date for each day of the week A coefficient calculator for calculating each coefficient, a third memory in which the lead time for each product is stored in advance, a coefficient for each day of the week and a coefficient for each day calculated in the stored order result data. Based on the calculated shipping predicted amount and the already-determined planned shipping amount, the shipping amount predicting unit that calculates the shipping predicted amount up to the stored lead time ahead by multiplying An order quantity deciding device comprising an order point deciding section for deciding the order point.

Furthermore, when the expected arrival date for each product falls on a holiday, the shipment quantity forecasting unit uses the day of the week coefficient as the maximum day of the week from the estimated arrival date to the end of the holiday, and the date coefficient as the expected arrival date. It is an order quantity determination device that uses the maximum date coefficient until the end of the holiday. Furthermore, the ordering point determining unit is an ordering amount determining apparatus in which the ordering point is the total value of the larger one of the estimated shipping amount and the planned shipping amount up to the lead time. Furthermore, the above-mentioned predetermined rule is an order quantity determining device which is a rule for excluding holiday data. Here, the ordering point is a point indicating how much the order should be placed when the stock quantity decreases below a predetermined quantity. What is the lead time?
The period from the order date to the arrival date.

[0006]

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION AND

DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS Embodiments and examples of the present invention will be described below with reference to the accompanying drawings to provide an understanding of the present invention.
It should be noted that the following embodiments and examples are merely examples embodying the present invention and are not of the nature to limit the technical scope of the present invention. Here, FIG. 1 shows the order quantity determining device A1 (A2) according to the embodiment and example of the first (second) invention.
FIG. 2 is a flow chart showing an operation procedure of the first (second) invention device A1 (A2), and FIG. 3 is an explanation showing a method of determining each coefficient for each day of the week and each date. It is a figure.

As shown in FIG. 1, the order quantity determining device A1 according to the embodiment and example of the first invention is an apparatus for automatically determining the order quantity of a product whose inventory quantity is below the order point. The database 1 (corresponding to the first memory) that stores the actual order data created by statistically processing the past order quantity for each product and the day / date data regarding the business day calendar are stored in advance. ． From one file 2 (corresponding to the second memory), the received order record data and the day of the week / date data stored respectively, the day coefficient (corresponding to the coefficient for each day) and the day coefficient (date) according to a predetermined rule. (Corresponding to each coefficient), and the day of the week calculated as the basic order quantity which is the preset quantitative order quantity for each product or the difference between the stock level at the order point and the current stock. A first order quantity calculation unit 3d (corresponding to the order quantity calculation unit) that calculates the order quantity of each product by multiplying the coefficient by the coefficient is provided.

The coefficient calculator 3a and the first order quantity calculator 3d are embodied by, for example, an executable program built in the computer 3. An input device 5 for inputting a command from an operator to the computer 3 and an output device 6 for outputting an output from the computer 3 are connected to the computer 3, respectively. The operation of the first invention device A1 will be described below in order of steps S0, S1, ... With reference to FIG. First, in response to a command input from the operator via the input device 5 (S0), the coefficient calculation unit 3a of the computer 3 obtains each coefficient according to the following rules (corresponding to predetermined rules) (S1).

(1) Day-of-week coefficient As shown in FIG. 3 (a), the day-of-week coefficient is calculated for all products by using the data of the past N weeks by the following formula. Day-of-week average value = average value of shipping results for the past N weeks on the same day of the week However, holiday data is excluded from the average calculation, and when the average-value calculable data is n or less, the default coefficient value is adopted. Day-of-week coefficient = average of day-of-week / average of day-of-week average However, if the default value is adopted as the day-of-week average, it cannot be included in the day-of-week coefficient calculation.

(2) Day Coefficient As shown in FIG. 3 (b), the day coefficient is calculated for all products using the data of the past M months by the following formula. Daily average value = average value of shipping results for the past M months on the same day However, holiday data is excluded from the average calculation, and the default coefficient value is used when the average value can be calculated is m or less. Daily coefficient = average of daily averages / average of daily averages However, if the default value is adopted as the daily average, it cannot be included in the daily coefficient calculation. Next, the first order quantity calculation unit 3d
The order quantity for each product is obtained as follows (S2), and the result is output from the output device 6 (S3). Order quantity = basic order quantity x day of the week coefficient x day coefficient Here, the basic order quantity is the difference between the quantitative order quantity or the stock level and the current stock.

However, for the day coefficient and the day of the week coefficient, the coefficient after the lead time from today is used, and when the day after the lead time is a holiday, the day of the week coefficient is read as shown in FIG. The maximum coefficient from the time after the lead time to the nearest non-holiday day after the lead time is used, and the day coefficient uses the maximum coefficient from the lead time to the nearest non-holiday day after the lead time. In this way,
The first invented device A1 can determine an appropriate order quantity of a product in accordance with day-to-day or day-to-day order fluctuations when purchasing products. However, in reality, it is necessary to decide the ordering point. The ordering point used the conventional method or manual input by the operator, and there was room for further improvement. The second invention has been made with this point in mind, and will be described below.

As shown in FIG. 1, the order quantity determining device A2 according to the second embodiment and embodiment of the present invention is an apparatus for automatically determining the order quantity of a product whose inventory quantity is below the order point. The same database 1, No. 1 as the above-mentioned first invention device A1. No. 1 in which the lead time for each product is stored in advance and the file 2 and the coefficient calculation unit 3a. The two files 4 (corresponding to the third memory) and the received order data stored in the database 1 are multiplied by the day of the week coefficient and the day coefficient calculated by the coefficient calculating section 3a, respectively. A shipment amount predicting unit 3b for calculating a predicted shipping amount up to the lead time, and an ordering point determining unit 3c for determining the ordering point based on the calculated predicted shipping amount and the planned shipping amount already determined. The second order quantity calculation unit 3 which determines the order quantity based on the order point determined above
and d '. Similar to the coefficient calculation unit 3a, the shipping amount prediction unit 3b, the order point determination unit 3c, and the order amount calculation unit 3d 'are also embodied by, for example, an executable program built in the computer 3.

The operation of the second invention device A2 will be described below in the order of steps S10, S11, ... With reference to FIG. It is assumed that the coefficient calculation unit 3a of the computer 3 has already obtained the variation coefficient including the day of the week coefficient and the day coefficient by the same method as that of the first invention device A1 (S1).
1). Further, the shipment quantity predicting unit 3b uses a method substantially similar to that of the first order quantity computing unit 3d of the first invention device A1,
It is assumed that the predicted shipping amount has already been obtained (S12). Under the above preparation, the ordering point determination unit 3c determines the ordering point as follows (S13). Order point = Σl (max (scheduled shipping amount in i days ahead, predicted shipping amount in i days ahead)) + safety stock where Σl is the total value of i = 1 to L + 2, and L is the lead time.

Further, the planned shipping amount means the planned shipping amount for i days ahead which has already been determined, and the predicted shipping amount has already been calculated by the shipping amount predicting section 3b (predicted order quantity × Coefficient of variation). Further, the predicted shipping amount is an average value of past shipping amounts. However, holidays shall be taken into consideration when determining the coefficient of variation. For example, if you place an order on Friday, Saturday and Sunday are holidays. Considering this, 1
The day coefficient of the day ahead is the maximum coefficient of the day of the week (Saturday, Sunday, and Monday). Also, the day coefficient one day ahead is the maximum coefficient on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. For example, as of December 1st (Friday), the planned shipment quantity is 4,0,0,1,0, the lead time is 2 days, the order forecast is 2, and the safety stock is 0.
Day-of-week coefficient of variation is 1.3, 0.8, 0.8, 0.8, 1.
3 (Monday to Friday) Daily coefficient of variation is 1.2, 1.0, 1.1, 0.9, 1.
Assuming 0, 1.0 (1st to 6th), the ordering point for December 1st (Friday) is calculated as follows.

[0015]

[Equation 1]

Next, the second order quantity computing unit 3d 'calculates the order quantity as follows (S14), and outputs the result to the output device 6
Output (S15). If the ordering point> stock quantity + Σ2 (planned arrival quantity), the maximum stock replenishment method sets order quantity = ordering point−stock quantity + Σ2 (planned arrival quantity). Where Σ2
Is the total value of i = 1 to L + 1. The planned arrival amount is the planned arrival amount in consideration of holidays. For example, as of December 1st (Friday), if the arrival schedule is 3,1,0,2, the lead time is 4 days, and the ordering point is 10.06,
The order quantity on December 1st (Friday) is calculated as follows. Fri Mon Tue Wed i 1 2 3 4 Expected arrival 3 1 0 2 → Σ2 (Estimated arrival amount) = 4 Therefore, order quantity = 10.06-4 = 6.06

As described above, according to the second invention device A2, the optimum order quantity of the product can be determined in accordance with the day-to-day or day-to-day order fluctuation when the product is purchased. still,
In the ordering point determination unit 3c of the second invention device A2, Σ1
Is a total value of i = 1 to L + 2 for the following reason. In the ordinary inventory theory, the ordering point is obtained from the quantity of shipment for L + 1 days, but this is a method of determining when the quantity of inventory does not fall below 0 when shipment and arrival are at the same timing. However, in the worst case, shipping may be early in the day (morning) and late in the day (evening), and in this case, the inventory will fall below 0 at the time of L + 2 day shipping. For this reason, the total shipping forecast for L + 2 days is used.

Below, a simple simulation result of the example of determining the ordering point will be shown. Assuming initial stock = 9 and lead time = 2 days (for the sum of L + 1 shipments) Thursday evening Friday morning Friday evening Monday morning Monday evening Tuesday morning Tuesday evening evening morning morning Wednesday evening evening shipment 0 shipment 4 2.86 1.60 1.60 inventory 9 5 5 2.14 2.14 0.54 0.54 -1.06 Order point 8.46 (= 4 + 2.86 + 1.60) Order 0 (Inventory 9> Order point 8.46) (In the case of the total amount of L + 2 shipments) Thursday evening Friday evening Monday evening Monday evening Tuesday morning Tue Yu Sui Asahi Arrival 1.68 Shipment 4 2.86 1.60 1.60 Inventory 9 5 5 2.14 2.14 0.54 1.60 0 Order point 10.06 (= 4 + 2.86 + 1.60 + 1.60) Order 1.06 (Order point 10.06−Inventory 9)

On the other hand, in the second order quantity computing unit 3d ', Σ
2 is the total value of i = 1 to L + 1, but this is for the following reason. In the case of the estimated arrival quantity, if L + 2 is set, in the above example, the order quantity is decided based on the arrival quantity on Wednesday evening. For example, if the estimated arrival quantity on Wednesday is 2, the order quantity on Friday will be 0, and the stock will be below 0 on Wednesday morning. For this reason, the planned arrival quantity is the sum of L + 1 days according to the usual inventory theory. The second invention device A2
The ordering point of No. 1 cannot be used as it is for the first invention device A1. The reason is that when the ordering point of the second invention device A2 is used as the ordering point of the first invention device A1, the coefficient is reflected twice, that is, the ordering point and the order quantity, resulting in an excessively large or small ordering amount. Because it will be.

[0020]

Since the order quantity determining device according to the present invention is configured as described above, the optimum order quantity of the product is determined in accordance with the fluctuation of the order on the day of the week or the day when the product is purchased. can do.

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram showing a schematic configuration of an order quantity determination device A1 (A2) according to an embodiment and an example of a first (second) invention.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing an operation procedure of the first (second) invention device A1 (A2).

FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram showing a method of determining each coefficient for each day of the week and each date.

[Explanation of symbols]

 A1, A2 ... Order quantity determination device 1 ... Database (corresponding to first memory) 2 ... No. 1 file (corresponding to the second memory) 3 ... Computer 3a ... Coefficient calculation unit 3b ... Shipment amount prediction unit 3c ... Order quantity determination unit 3d ... First order quantity calculation unit (corresponding to order quantity calculation unit) 3d '... Second order quantity calculation unit 4 ... No. 2 files (corresponding to the third memory) 5 ... input device 6 ... output device

Claims (5)

[Claims] 1. A device for automatically determining the order quantity of a product whose inventory quantity is below the order point, which stores order result data created by statistically processing the past order quantity of each product. From the memory, the second memory that stores the day of the week / date data related to the business day calendar in advance, and the order record data and the day of the week / date data stored in each of the above,
A coefficient calculation unit that calculates a coefficient for each day of the week and a coefficient for each day according to a predetermined rule, and a preset order quantity for each product or a basic order quantity that is the difference between the stock level at the order point and the current stock An order quantity determining device, comprising: an order quantity calculator that calculates the order quantity of each product by multiplying the calculated coefficient for each day of the week and the coefficient for each day. 2. An apparatus for automatically determining the order quantity of a product whose inventory quantity is below the order point, which stores order result data created by statistically processing the past order quantity of each product. From the memory, the second memory that stores the day of the week / date data related to the business day calendar in advance, and the order record data and the day of the week / date data stored in each of the above,
A coefficient calculation unit that calculates a coefficient for each day of the week and a coefficient for each date according to a predetermined rule, a third memory that stores a lead time for each product in advance, and the above-mentioned calculation based on the stored order record data. By multiplying the coefficient for each day of the week and the coefficient for each day, the shipping amount predicting unit that calculates the shipping predicted amount up to the stored lead time destination, the calculated shipping predicted amount, and the already-determined shipping predicted amount have already been determined. An order quantity deciding device comprising: an order point deciding section for deciding the order point based on the planned shipping quantity. 3. When the expected arrival date of each product falls on a holiday, the shipment amount forecasting unit sets the day-of-week coefficient to the maximum day-of-week coefficient from the estimated arrival date to the end of the holiday, and the date coefficient to the expected arrival date to holiday. 3. The maximum date coefficient until dawn is used.
The stated order quantity determination device. 4. The order placement method according to claim 2, wherein the ordering point determination unit sets an ordering point to a total value of a larger one of the estimated shipping quantity and the planned shipping quantity up to a lead time. Quantity determination device. 5. The order quantity determining device according to claim 1, wherein the predetermined rule is a rule for excluding holiday data.