JPH09243134A - Operation planning device for heat source equipment - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To estimate a flow rate of a thermal load for a specified period of time from a previous supplying flow rate in reference to wheather data, make a heat accumulation planning, mate a heat source operation planning in reference to the previous supplying flow rate and an estimated value of supplying flow rate, perform an operation and stopping of the heat source equipment, monitor a displacement between the planning value and an actual value, correct the planning and realize an efficient operation and a stable supplying of it. SOLUTION: A weekday mode and a weather estimating value are inputted to a heat source equipment control device (a step (hereinafter called as S) 100) so as to process an estimating operation for a supplying flow rate (S110a). Then, a thermal accumulation tank planning for operating the thermal accumulation tank is processed in reference to a supplying flow rate estimated value and a facility capability of the heat source equipment and the thermal accumulating tank (S120), an operating index for every time period is determined and then a date which is similar to the estimation supplying flow rate value for one day is selected from the previous actual result (S130). Then, a monitoring processing for a monitoring and planning is carried out at a period corresponding to (n) pieces, an operation stopping instruction for the heat source equipment is outputted (S140) and the operation planning is corrected (S150). With such an arrangement as above, it is possible to perform a planned operation control for realizing an efficient operation.

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to an operation planning apparatus for heat source control equipment capable of efficiently operating heat storage equipment and heat source equipment in an electric heat production facility using a heat storage equipment and further supplying heat stably.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, some air-conditioning equipment such as buildings, houses, and public facilities are equipped with a heat storage tank, and heat is stored as cold water, hot water, and steam in the daytime. By doing so, the heat source load of the heat source device in the daytime is reduced, and therefore, it becomes possible to reduce the installation capacity of the heat source device. In addition, it is possible to reduce the equipment capacity of the heat source device, and further improve the operating efficiency and load factor of the heat source device.

On the other hand, in the case of heating and cooling by electricity, by making an industrial adjustment contract with a power company, it is possible to save running costs by utilizing inexpensive nighttime power. In such an air conditioning system, a plurality of heat source devices and a heat storage tank for cold / hot water are provided. Heat source equipment such as heat pump
Cold water and hot water are manufactured, stored in a heat storage tank, and supplied to heat load equipment such as air conditioning equipment as necessary. Further, in a facility in which a plurality of heat source devices are installed, it is necessary to control the number of operating heat source devices according to the amount of heat consumed by the heat load device and the amount of heat stored in the heat storage tank.

Therefore, conventionally, the operation of the heat source device has been controlled by the following method. (1) The heat storage amount of the heat storage tank is detected, and the operation of the heat source device is stopped based on the deviation between the preset heat storage target and the actual heat storage amount. (2) The amount of heat consumed by the heat load device is predicted in advance, and the heat source device is stopped based on the predicted heat storage target at a predetermined time and the actual amount of stored heat.

[0005]

However, in such a method, it is necessary to set a heat storage target in accordance with changes in heat load on seasons, weekdays, and holidays, and when there is a heat source device for simultaneously producing cold / hot water. Needs to set a heat storage target that satisfies both cold temperature at the same time.

In order to create an operation plan for heat source equipment that meets this goal, it is necessary to solve a combination optimization problem. This combination optimization problem is combined depending on the number of heat source units and the minimum time unit of the operation plan. Due to the enormous number, it was practically difficult to incorporate and control in a control and monitoring system.

The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances, and an object thereof is to provide an operation planning apparatus for a heat source device which is suitable for practical use and can realize highly accurate and efficient operation and stable supply of heat. .

[0008]

In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides a heat production heat storage system for supplying heat to a heat supply facility, in which past supply flow rates and past heat source equipment are used. A means for storing the operation record, a means for predicting the supply flow rate to be consumed in a predetermined period based on the past supply flow rate record and the meteorological data stored in this storage means, and a predetermined period for the heat load flow rate predicted value Heat storage target determining means for determining the operation guideline of the heat production and heat storage system of
Means for determining an operation schedule of the heat source for a certain predetermined period based on the supply flow rate predicted value predicted by the supply flow rate prediction means and the past operation record of the heat source device stored in the storage means, and the operation schedule. Monitoring means for monitoring the degree of deviation of the operating schedule and process determined by the determining means, means for correcting or altering the operating schedule based on the monitoring result of this monitoring means, and operation determined by the operating schedule determining means It is provided with means for executing the operation and shutdown of the heat source equipment according to the schedule, and means for executing the emergency operation and shutdown of the heat source equipment by monitoring the process by the monitoring means.

Therefore, in the operation planning apparatus for the heat source device having such a configuration, first, at a fixed time (for example, 22:00), N is calculated from the past supply flow rate based on the weather forecast input value of the next day.
Predict the heat load flow rate over time (eg N = 24). Based on this predicted value, a heat storage plan will be created to realize the capacity of the heat storage tank, effective use of nighttime power, peak cut operation, efficient operation of using the heat produced on that day, and cold / hot water management.

Next, based on the heat storage plan, the past supply flow rate, and the supply flow rate predicted value, a past operation record close to today is created as today's heat source operation plan. According to this plan, the heat source equipment is operated and stopped, but if there is a deviation from the plan due to prediction errors etc., the degree of the deviation will be monitored, and the plan will be revised as necessary for efficient operation. And achieve a stable supply.

[0011]

BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. FIG. 1 is a block circuit diagram showing a configuration example of an embodiment of an operation planning apparatus for heat source equipment according to the present invention.

In FIG. 1, reference numeral 1 is a heat storage plant provided in a basement or the like, and this heat storage plant 1 is provided with a cold water tank 5 and a hot water tank 6, from which the cold water tank 5 and the hot water tank 6 are air-conditioned,
Cold water and hot water are supplied to the heat load 2 such as cooling and hot water supply by the water supply pumps 3a and 3b via the headers 4a and 4b, respectively.

Further, each supply system is provided with a thermometer 9a for measuring the outgoing water temperature and a flow meter 17a for measuring the water flow rate, and a thermometer for measuring the temperature distribution in the cold water tank 5 and the hot water tank 6. 9b is provided.

Further, a thermometer 9c for measuring the temperature of each heat source device is provided on the inlet side and the outlet side thereof, and a flow meter 17b for measuring the heat production flow rate is also provided. On the other hand, generally, a plurality of various heat pumps (heat source devices) are installed in the heat storage plant, and the heat pump 7 for cold water can turn water at about 10 ° C into water at about 5 ° C. Further, the heat recovery type heat pump 8 can produce water of about 5 ° C. and warm water of about 45 ° C. at the same time, and can use the heat output at this time for both, so that the heat production efficiency is good.

These thermometers 9a to 9c and the flow meter 17
The plurality of measurement values 20 measured by a and 17b are input to the arithmetic unit 22 via the input unit 21. Further, the set value such as the input forecast value is input to the arithmetic device 22 via the man-machine input device 25 and the input device 21.

The operation stop command 26 of the heat source device calculated by the calculation device 22 is output to the heat source device controller 24 via the output device 23, and the heat source device controller 24
Is for starting and stopping the heat source equipment.

Here, the calculation function of the calculation device 22 will be described. The heat source equipment control device is roughly divided into the following 5
It consists of one process. (1) Supply flow rate prediction processing (2) Heat storage planning processing (3) Heat source equipment operation planning processing (4) Process monitoring, operation planning monitoring processing (5) Heat source equipment operation planning correction processing One day of these processings FIG. 2 shows a flow chart of the above operation.

Before the start of each time zone shown below, (1)
Prediction processing, (2) heat storage planning processing, and (3) operation planning processing are executed as scheduled planning processing. Within each time period, a certain monitoring cycle (for example, 15 minutes or 30 minutes)
(4) Process monitoring and operation plan monitoring are performed in (5) minutes, and if the operation plan needs to be changed, (5) Operation plan correction processing or (2) and (3) processing is performed as re-planning. To be executed.

Details of each processing will be described below with reference to FIG. The heat source device controller inputs the mode of the day of the week, the season and the weather forecast value set by the man-machine input device 25 (step 100). (1) Supply Flow Rate Prediction Process Subsequently, the heat source device control device performs a supply flow rate prediction process (step 110a).

The supply flow rate predicting process is as follows.
The supply flow rate prediction process is roughly divided into the following two. -Hourly-time supply flow rate prediction process-Hourly-time supply flow rate prediction process (a) Time-wise supply flow rate prediction process This process is performed at the time of creating the scheduled plan before each time period starts.

A record of the supply flow rate data for each hour is stored for each day of the week. For example, the mode of the day of the week is as follows: Holiday (M = 1) Weekday (M = 2) Unique day (M = 3) The time zone is set as follows.

-Time zone 1 (T = 1) (night) (22: 00-8: 00) -Time zone 2 (T = 2) (8: 00-13: 00) -Summer (8:00 〜16: 00) ・ ・ ・ Winter (8: 00〜16: 00) ・ ・ ・ Other season ・ Time zone 3 (T = 3) (13: 00〜16: 00) ・ ・ ・ Summer (16: 00〜18: 00) ・ ・ ・ Winter ・ Time Zone 4 (T = 4) (16: 00〜16: 00) ・ ・ ・ Summer (18: 00〜22: 00) ・ ・ ・ Winter Day and day mode From the season, the average flow rate Y _MT of the mode of the day can be obtained. Next two days before, the flow rate result Y of the day before
_{Assuming that MT} (k-1) and Y _MT (k-2) are obtained, the predicted heat load flow rate on the day is predicted using the following model.

Yo _MT (k) = a1. (Ym _MT (k-1) -Ym _MT ) + a2. (Ym _MT (k-2) -Ym _MT ) + ... + b.ΔW + Ym _MT (1) where , Yo _MT (k): Predicted flow rate for time zone T of the day [G
cal] Ym _MT : average flow rate [Gcal] ΔW: predicted temperature value-average temperature [° C] a1, a2, ..., b: parameters.

.., b are parameters of the model, which can be given in advance, and it is also possible to perform successive least squares estimation (Kalman filter) in real time. Predicted value Yo _{MT for} each time period (T = 1, ..., 4)
(k) When [Gcal] is obtained, the hourly flow rate average value Ym _MT (i) (i = 1, ..., 24) of the day M is used to apportion by the day of each hour Predicted value for 24 hours Yo _MT
(k, i) (i = 1, ..., 24) [Gcal] is obtained. (B) Hourly Supply Flow Rate Prediction Process This process is executed every daytime (8:00 to 22:00) before each process monitoring / planning execution process is executed.

Time before last, actual flow rate at previous time Y _MT (k, i-1)
If Y _MT (k, i-2) is obtained, the predicted heat load flow rate at the next time is predicted using the following model. Yo _MT (k, i) = a1 · (Y _MT (k, i-1) −Ym _MT (i-1)) + a2 · (Y _MT (k, i-2) −Ym _MT (i-2)) + ・ ・ ・ + B ・ Δh (k-1) + Ym _MT (i) (2) where Yo _MT (k, i): Predicted flow rate at time i in time zone T of the day [Gcal / hour] Δh (i): enthalpy at time i-average enthalpy [kcal / kg] Ym _MT (i): average flow rate at time i a1, a2, ..., b: parameters.

The parameters a1, a2, ..., B are motel parameters, which can be given in advance and can also be used for successive least squares estimation (Kalman filter) in real time. (2) Heat storage planning process Next, the heat storage planning process for planning the operation of the heat storage tank from the predicted supply flow rate, the heat source equipment and the facility capacity of the heat storage tank (step 120).
I do. In the heat storage planning process, the operation index for each of the following time zones is determined. -Heat storage target These indexes are determined according to the following policy so that efficient operation can be realized under stable supply. (A) Improving the utilization rate of nighttime electricity (low nighttime electricity cost) (b) Using up the heat produced on that day (minimizing heat loss). (C) Achieve power peak cut. (For power reduction and power demand leveling through scheduled adjustment contracts) In accordance with the above policy, the above operation indicators are determined as follows. (A) Heat storage target The heat storage amount Q handled by the heat storage target is from the temperature profile of the heat storage tank. In the case of cold water heat storage, as shown in FIG. 3, the temperature of the section i is θ ₁ [° C.] and the volume of the section i is V _i [m ³ ] And heat storage efficiency η
And

[0027]

[Equation 1]

Θ _k ≦ θ _so and θ _{k + 1} > θ _so (4) Here, the first term of the equation (3) is the amount of water in the part where the temperature of the heat storage tank is equal to or lower than the specified water supply temperature, and the second term is the portion of the heat storage tank where the temperature exceeds the specified water supply temperature up to the specified water supply temperature. Means the amount of water. In the case of hot water heat storage, the amount of heat storage water that can be sent can be obtained by considering the reverse form of the above.

The heat storage target is an index representing how much heat is to be stored at this predetermined heat transferable water amount. Here, the predetermined time is the time zone end time described above.
The heat storage target is determined as follows.

(A) For effective use of nighttime power, the amount of heat storage water at the end time (8 o'clock) of time zone 1 is the maximum of the heat storage facility capacity for both cold and hot water and the predicted value of the supply flow rate after the end time of time zone 1 The integrated value, whichever is larger

(A) The amount of heat storage water at the end time 22:00 (end time of time zone 2 or time zone 4) of the day is minimized in order to use up the heat produced on that day. (C) In summer and winter with peak cut operation, the accumulated heat storage amount at the end time (13:00 or 16:00) of time zone 2 is the maximum of the facility capacity and the integrated value of the predicted supply flow rate after the end time of time zone 2 Whichever is larger.

(D) During summer and winter when the peak cut operation is performed, the amount of stored heat water at the end time (16:00 or 18:00) of the time zone 3 is minimized. Here, the minimum amount of stored heat water is the amount of water that can cover the starting loss when one heat source device is additionally operated. Since the starting loss of the heat source device is generally about 0.5 hours, the minimum heat storage amount = 0.5 hour of the supply flow rate + 0.5 hour of the manufacturing flow rate of the heat source device (3) Operation planning process of the heat source device (step 130) ) A day similar to the predicted value of the supply flow rate for one day is selected from the past (for example, the past one month) actual results of the supply flow rate. This process is performed as a regular process that starts in the time zone of S2.
Hereinafter, a method of selecting similar dates will be described.

The actual results for a certain period in the past are the supply flow rate by day of the week,
The amount of heat storage water and the operation record are saved. In addition, this stored data does not include the results of days that are not suitable as similar dates. Here, the actual results that are not appropriate for similar days are
For example:

(1) The heat source unit failed or was maintained during the day's operation. (2) The number of times the heat source unit was turned ON / OFF was a specified value (for example, 5).
(3) The above results (3) When the supply system is under maintenance and the actual supply flow rate is not appropriate for similar days.

Similar days are selected according to the following priorities based on the actual results for each day of the week and the prediction of the heat supply amount for today. (I) Select achievements with the same day of the week. (Ii) Transition of the amount of stored water is appropriate. The heat storage amount at the end time of each time zone satisfies the following conditions which are the operation targets. (a) The amount of stored water at the end of the night time zone is near the heat storage target. (b) The amount of heat storage water at the peak cut start time is near the heat storage target. (c) The amount of heat storage water at the time of peak cut end is near the heat storage target. (d) The amount of heat storage water at the end of the daytime time zone is near the heat storage target. (iii) Plural candidate days were obtained on the days (i) and (ii) where the sum of squared deviations of the actual and actual supply flow forecasts for each time period were the minimum. The operation record of is the today's operation plan. (D) Process monitoring / plan monitoring process (step 140) Since it is desirable that the process monitoring / plan monitoring process be performed continuously, the process monitoring / plan monitoring process is executed at a cycle of n (for example, n =
1, 15, or 60) As a result, an operation stop command for the heat source device is output to the heat source device controller via the output device.

(I) Monitoring of Operation Plan In monitoring the operation plan, the following monitoring is performed and the plan correction processing is executed. The monitoring items of the operation plan are as follows.・ Whether or not the prescribed items that are operation indicators are maintained ・ Whether or not the heat source equipment is shut down other than the operation schedule (during manual intervention) ・ Is the supply flow rate forecast deviated by more than a prescribed value (for example, 15%)? Whether or not it is determined as a result of these monitoring that the operation plan needs to be changed, the plan process or the plan correction process is executed. (ii) Monitoring of operating condition Since the process changes from moment to moment, monitor this change. That is, it is monitored whether stable supply or stable operation (stable operation of equipment) is being performed.

Items to be monitored are as follows.・ Whether the supply temperature maintains the specified temperature or not ・ Whether the minimum amount of heat storage water is saved ・ Whether the inlet temperature of the heat source device is normal or not Run (stop according to the operation schedule) operation / stop. (E) Operation plan correction process for heat source equipment (step 150) In the operation plan correction process, a defect in the operation schedule is corrected by extending, shortening, prolonging, moving forward or moving the current operation schedule.

The extension, shortening, procrastination, advancement, and movement of the operation schedule are performed as follows. -Extend: Extend the scheduled stop time of the heat source device to the rear-Short-cut: Advance the scheduled stop time of the heat source device-Procrastinate: Extend the scheduled start time of the heat source device to the rear-Advance: Advance the scheduled start time of the heat source device- Move: Change the scheduled start time and scheduled stop time of the heat source equipment.

As described above, according to the present embodiment, it is possible to systematically store the heat, which requires the nighttime electric power effectively in consideration of the heat load during the daytime, and it is possible to level the daytime electric power demand. Furthermore, planned operation control for realizing efficient operation can be realized.

Since systematic control is a prerequisite, correction processing is added so that stable supply can be realized even if an error occurs in load prediction, and emergency control that responds to momentary changes in the process is made. Therefore, by providing a feedback control function, a more stable supply can be realized.

Further, since the control device can incorporate the time zone, the day of the week mode, and the seasonal mode, efficient operation and stable supply can be realized throughout the year regardless of the day of the week or the time of day.

In the above-described embodiment, the control device controls one plant, but the present control device can simultaneously control a plurality of plants by the same method.
In the above embodiment, the heat recovery heat source device and the cold water dedicated heat pump are used. However, the present invention can be modified and implemented when there is no heat recovery heat source device or when there is a hot water dedicated heat pump.

[0043]

As described above, the operation planning apparatus for heat source equipment according to the present invention can obtain the following effects. -Economical operation that makes effective use of nighttime electric power is possible.

The leveling of daytime power demand can be realized. -By performing planned control, it is possible to avoid wasteful operation and lossy operation, and realize efficient operation.

It is possible to realize a stable supply that can always be supplied to a customer at a specified temperature.・ By controlling the flow rate, which is the most important factor of fluctuation of heat load, more efficient operation and stable supply can be realized.・ Operation control that is not affected by the day of the week or time of day is possible throughout the year.

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block configuration diagram showing an embodiment of an operation planning apparatus for heat source equipment according to the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing the operation of the same embodiment.

FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining an amount of heat storage water that can be sent in the same embodiment.

[Explanation of symbols]

 1 ... Heat storage plant 2 ... Heat load 3 ... Water pump 4a ... Hot water header 4b ... Cold water header 5 ... Cold water tank 6 ... Hot water tank 7 ... Cold water dedicated heat pump 8 ... Heat recovery type heat source device 9a ~ 9c ... Thermometer 17 ... Water flow meter 20 ... Process measurement value 21 ... Input device 22 ... Calculation device 23 ... Output device 24 ... Heat source controller 25 ... Man-machine input device 26 ... Heat source Equipment operation stop command

Claims (1)

[Claims] 1. A heat production heat storage system for supplying heat to a heat supply facility, means for storing past supply flow rate record and past operation record of heat source device, and the storage means. A means for predicting the supply flow rate consumed in a certain predetermined period based on past supply flow rate results and meteorological data, and a heat storage target determination that determines the operation guideline of the heat production and heat storage system for a certain predetermined period from the heat load flow rate predicted value Means, means for determining a heat source operation schedule for a certain predetermined period, based on the past operation record of the heat source device stored in the storage means and the supply flow rate predicted value predicted by the supply flow rate predicting means, Monitoring means for monitoring the degree of deviation between the operation schedule and the process determined by the operation schedule determining means, and the operation schedule based on the monitoring result of the monitoring means. Of the heat source equipment according to the operation schedule determined by the operation schedule determination means, and the operation and stop of the heat source equipment by monitoring the process by the monitoring means. And a means for executing the heat source device operation planning apparatus.