JPH07110385A - Thunder generation potential judgment device - Google Patents

Abstract

PURPOSE:To provide a thunder generation potential judgment device capable of judging the possibility of thunder generation at a relatively long time interval by grasping the atmosphere state. CONSTITUTION:An individual item judgment part 1 for fetching information on a plurality of parameters concerning thunder generation factors out of aerological information, applying each parameter information to judgment items obtained in advance based on the thunder generation, factors, comparing with each reference value, and judging whether it fulfills the conditions of each item, an item-classified calculation part 21 for giving points to the item to fulfill the conditions in the individual item judgement part 1, a point adding part 22 for multiplying weight given to the individual items in advance to the point given to every point in the item point calculation part 21, and a judgment part 23 for judging the possibility of thunder generation by comparing the added result of the point adding part 22 with the reference value, are provided to constitute the thunder generation potential judgment device.

Description

Detailed Description of the Invention

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a lightning potential determination device for obtaining a lightning potential at a relatively long time interval regardless of radar echo information.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art As is well known, most thunderclouds take 2-3 hours from the beginning to the extinction.
Roughly divided into maturity and decline. About its growth process,
This will be briefly described by showing the state in FIG. In FIG. 3, the horizontal axis represents elapsed time, the vertical axis represents altitude, and the numbers in the figure represent radar echo intensity [dBz]. Echo intensity is proportional to water content.

For some reason, if the warm atmosphere (warm air) near the surface of the earth becomes a state (unstable state) where the cold atmosphere (cold air) is located above the ground surface, the warm air near the surface of the earth is light and tries to rise. Since the cold air is heavy, it tries to descend and convection occurs. At this time, if the rising airflow contains water, the water moves to a low temperature region in the sky to be condensed into water or ice crystals, and a cloud is generated.

When the upflow is particularly strong, the water content is high and the cloud develops rapidly. In such cases, there is a high probability of becoming a thundercloud. In this way, the period in which the updraft is predominant is positioned as the developmental period.

With the passage of time, the water above becomes dense and gradually forms nuclei, and the updraft becomes weaker in the maturation stage. When the top of the nucleus reaches the freezing height, ice particles are formed.
The particles become charged due to collisions, etc., and the charges are gradually accumulated. When electric charges are accumulated to some extent, a discharge phenomenon occurs and a lightning strike occurs.

When the ascending air current further weakens, it enters a declining period and turns into a descending air flow, and the phenomenon of convergence occurs in the upper part and the phenomenon of divergence occurs in the lower part. Then, the water region drops and the charged nucleus approaches the surface of the earth. As a result, lightning strikes are concentrated due to the potential difference between the nucleus and the surface. The thundercloud disappears when the moisture region almost falls to the ground surface.

In a conventional thundercloud observation system that detects such a thundercloud and predicts lightning, a thundercloud is based on the idea that "the radar echo of a thundercloud is higher and stronger than the echo of an ordinary rain cloud." Is determined. That is,
For example, the discrimination standard as shown in the following table is created using only the information on the echo intensity and the echo altitude.

[0008]

[Table 1]

By the way, the lightning determination algorithm used in the above-mentioned thundercloud observation system uses only information from the radar, and the radar echo within the radar coverage area (within a radius of 150 to 200 km from the radar site). The altitude and intensity information of is all.

Clouds within the range are, for example, 50 to 60 per hour.
Move in km (this is the average value and is often faster in practice). Therefore, if one echo can be continuously tracked, the echo will last for a maximum of about 8 hours. However, in reality, since the amount of information is enormous, it is difficult to determine the identity of continuous echoes, and continuous radar tracking for a long time is impossible.

On the other hand, there is "cloudiness" depending on the weather and atmospheric conditions themselves. Clouds do not even occur in a clear and dry atmosphere, and conversely, when it is said that the atmosphere is unstable, it immediately leads to a thunderstorm. Such meteorological "easiness of lightning"
Is not considered at all in conventional systems.

From the above, in the thundercloud observation system, it is possible to grasp the state of the atmosphere and judge the possibility of lightning (lightning potential) at relatively long intervals (lightning potential). It is strongly desired to incorporate the device into the signal processing / analyzing unit so as to be able to give an index of a thunderstorm prediction at long intervals.

[0013]

As described above, the emergence of a lightning potential determination device capable of determining the possibility of lightning at relatively long intervals by grasping the state of the atmosphere as described above. Is strongly desired.

The present invention has been made to solve the above problems, and provides a lightning potential determination device capable of determining the possibility of lightning at a relatively long time interval by grasping the state of the atmosphere. The purpose is to provide.

[0015]

In order to achieve the above object, a lightning potential determination device according to the present invention extracts a plurality of parameter information relating to a lightning factor from high-level meteorological information, and issues each parameter information in advance. It is applied to the judgment items obtained based on the lightning factor and compared with each reference value to judge whether the conditions of each item are satisfied or not And a potential determination unit for determining whether or not there is a possibility of lightning depending on the number of items determined to be satisfied.

The parameter information includes altitude, temperature, temperature / dew point temperature difference on a constant atmospheric pressure surface, and may further include seawater temperature information obtained separately from the high-level meteorological information.

[0017]

In the lightning potential determination device having the above-described structure, the lightning potential is determined based on the information including high-level meteorological information released at relatively long intervals apart from the radar echo information, and in some cases seawater temperature information. To provide an indicator of long-term lightning prediction.

[0018]

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS An embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the processing functions of the lightning potential determination device according to the present invention. Since the hardware configuration can be realized by a general-purpose computer, its description is omitted here.

In FIG. 1, the item-by-item determination unit 1 extracts a plurality of parameter information relating to a lightning factor from high-level weather information, and applies each parameter information to a determination item previously obtained based on the lightning factor. By comparing with the respective reference values, it is determined whether or not the condition of each item is satisfied.

The parameter information includes altitude, temperature and temperature / dew point temperature difference (may be freezing temperature) on a constant atmospheric pressure surface. In addition to sea level weather information, seawater temperature information is also added as parameter information.

The potential judging section 2 judges whether or not there is a possibility of lightning depending on the number of items judged by the item judging section 1 to satisfy the condition. Specifically, it includes an item point calculation unit 21, a point addition unit 22, and a determination unit 23.

The item point calculation unit 21 gives points for the items judged to satisfy the conditions by the item judgment unit. The point addition unit 22 multiplies the points given by the item point calculation unit 21 for each item by a weight given in advance for each item, and obtains the sum of the processing results. The determination unit 23 determines whether there is a possibility of lightning by comparing the addition result of the point addition unit 22 with a reference value.

FIG. 2 shows specific processing contents based on the above function.
For example. In Fig. 2, 4 selected as an index
Items (1) to (4) and the respective reference values A to D are selected as effective conditions for lightning from a survey of actual data on lightning. The item selected here is an example as an index for observing the generation and growth of thunderclouds. Humidity (2) for determining the presence or absence of water for the presence of clouds in the sky, and the presence of upflow for development. The temperature difference (1) and the atmospheric stability (4) for observing the strength, and the altitude (3) corresponding to the freezing temperature that influences the generation of electric charges necessary for lightning are selected.

Points P1 to P of each item (1) to (4)
For item 4, “1” is given when the conditions of the items are satisfied, and “0” is given when the conditions are not satisfied. Items (1) to (4)
The weights W1 to W4 of E are assigned E to H in accordance with the respective degrees of association, and the points P1 of the corresponding items.
~ Get on P4.

Points Pi obtained for each item (i is 1 to
4) and the multiplication result Pi · Wi of the weight Wi are all added to obtain a total sum T = ΣPi · Wi. This total value T is compared with the lightning reference value I, and if T ≧ I, it is determined that “there is a possibility of lightning”, and if T <I, it is determined that “there is no possibility of lightning”.

Regarding the degree of association, it is possible to judge whether or not there is a correlation, but in the verification using actual data, here, as an example, the judgment is made by weighted logical sum. Of course, other combinations (including weighted ANDs) are possible.

That is, in the lightning potential determination device having the above-mentioned configuration, parameters (temperature, humidity, atmospheric stability, freezing altitude, etc.) which are considered to be factors of lightning are separated from the echo information of the radar and from the high-level weather information and seawater temperature information. The index of lightning potential is sought from.

The high-level meteorological information, which is the basis for calculating the lightning potential, is currently only the result of observation about twice a day, and will provide the lightning potential forecast every half day. Since the atmospheric conditions do not change rapidly in a very short time, it can be used sufficiently for long time intervals.

In the near future, prediction information of 40 km mesh based on actual measurement values, called GPV (lattice point prediction value), will be made public. Since this will be a value every 3 hours, it is considered that the determination accuracy can be improved by using this information.

Therefore, the lightning potential determination device having the above-described configuration can grasp the state of the atmosphere and determine whether or not there is a possibility of lightning at relatively long intervals, so that at least a half day ahead Can predict the presence of lightning.
In particular, if it is incorporated into the signal processing / analyzing unit of the thundercloud observation system, it can be useful for thundercloud detection, lightning warning, preventive measures, etc., and can bring extremely useful effects. The present invention is not limited to the above-mentioned embodiments, and can be similarly implemented by various modifications without departing from the scope of the invention.

[0031]

As described above, according to the present invention, it is possible to provide a lightning potential determination device capable of grasping the state of the atmosphere and determining the possibility of lightning at relatively long intervals. it can.

[Brief description of drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration of an embodiment of a lightning potential determination device according to the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a specific determination process of the same embodiment.

FIG. 3 is a conceptual diagram for explaining a thundercloud growth process.

[Explanation of symbols]

1 ... Item-based determination unit, 2 ... Potential determination unit, 21 ... Item point calculation unit, 22 ... Point addition unit, 23 ... Determination unit.

(72) Inventor Yuko Sato 1 Komukai-Toshiba-cho, Sachi-ku, Kawasaki-shi, Kanagawa Inside the Komukai Plant, Toshiba Corporation (72) Inventor Hideki Hashimoto Komu-shi, Toshiba-cho, Kawasaki-shi, Kanagawa Stock company Toshiba Komukai factory (72) Inventor Hiroshi Oikawa 1 Komukai Toshiba-cho, Kouki-ku, Kawasaki-shi, Kanagawa Stock company Toshiba Komukai factory

Claims (5)

[Claims] 1. Extracting a plurality of parameter information related to a lightning factor from high-level meteorological information, applying each parameter information to a judgment item obtained in advance based on a lightning factor, and comparing with each reference value. The item-based judgment section that determines whether or not the conditions for each item are satisfied, and the possibility of lightning is determined according to the number of items that are determined to satisfy the conditions by this item-based judgment section. Lightning potential determination device comprising: 2. The potential determination unit is an item point calculation unit that gives points for items that are determined to satisfy the condition by the item-based determination unit, and is given to each item by the item point calculation unit. The point addition unit for obtaining the sum of points, and a determination unit for determining whether or not there is a possibility of lightning by comparing the addition result of the point addition unit with a reference value. Lightning potential determination device. 3. The potential determination unit is an item point calculation unit that gives points for items that are determined to satisfy the condition by the item-based determination unit, and is given to each item by the item point calculation unit. A point addition unit that multiplies points by weights given in advance for each item and calculates the sum of the processing results, and a determination unit that determines the possibility of lightning by comparing the addition result of this point addition unit with a reference value The lightning potential determination device according to claim 1, further comprising: 4. The lightning potential determination device according to claim 1, wherein the parameter information includes altitude, temperature, temperature / dew point temperature difference on a constant atmospheric pressure surface. 5. The lightning potential determination device according to claim 4, wherein the parameter information further includes seawater temperature information obtained separately from the high-rise weather information.