JP7480683B2 - 状態推定装置、方法およびプログラム - Google Patents
状態推定装置、方法およびプログラム Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- JP7480683B2 JP7480683B2 JP2020191896A JP2020191896A JP7480683B2 JP 7480683 B2 JP7480683 B2 JP 7480683B2 JP 2020191896 A JP2020191896 A JP 2020191896A JP 2020191896 A JP2020191896 A JP 2020191896A JP 7480683 B2 JP7480683 B2 JP 7480683B2
- Authority
- JP
- Japan
- Prior art keywords
- data
- product
- estimate
- estimation
- individual
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Active
Links
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title description 26
- 238000013213 extrapolation Methods 0.000 claims description 26
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims description 15
- 238000011144 upstream manufacturing Methods 0.000 claims description 7
- 238000010801 machine learning Methods 0.000 description 28
- 230000006866 deterioration Effects 0.000 description 15
- 239000000446 fuel Substances 0.000 description 14
- 230000015572 biosynthetic process Effects 0.000 description 13
- 238000003786 synthesis reaction Methods 0.000 description 13
- 230000007774 longterm Effects 0.000 description 11
- 238000004891 communication Methods 0.000 description 9
- 238000013500 data storage Methods 0.000 description 8
- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 description 7
- 238000013480 data collection Methods 0.000 description 6
- 238000002360 preparation method Methods 0.000 description 6
- 238000003860 storage Methods 0.000 description 6
- 230000015556 catabolic process Effects 0.000 description 5
- 230000001186 cumulative effect Effects 0.000 description 5
- 238000006731 degradation reaction Methods 0.000 description 5
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 description 5
- 238000005259 measurement Methods 0.000 description 4
- 239000002131 composite material Substances 0.000 description 3
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 description 3
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 description 3
- 238000002790 cross-validation Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000003203 everyday effect Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000012935 Averaging Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000000295 complement effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000007423 decrease Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000001914 filtration Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000006870 function Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000001788 irregular Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000000704 physical effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000011002 quantification Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000000611 regression analysis Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000001932 seasonal effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 239000007787 solid Substances 0.000 description 1
- 238000012546 transfer Methods 0.000 description 1
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G07—CHECKING-DEVICES
- G07C—TIME OR ATTENDANCE REGISTERS; REGISTERING OR INDICATING THE WORKING OF MACHINES; GENERATING RANDOM NUMBERS; VOTING OR LOTTERY APPARATUS; ARRANGEMENTS, SYSTEMS OR APPARATUS FOR CHECKING NOT PROVIDED FOR ELSEWHERE
- G07C5/00—Registering or indicating the working of vehicles
- G07C5/008—Registering or indicating the working of vehicles communicating information to a remotely located station
-
- H—ELECTRICITY
- H04—ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
- H04W—WIRELESS COMMUNICATION NETWORKS
- H04W4/00—Services specially adapted for wireless communication networks; Facilities therefor
- H04W4/30—Services specially adapted for particular environments, situations or purposes
- H04W4/40—Services specially adapted for particular environments, situations or purposes for vehicles, e.g. vehicle-to-pedestrians [V2P]
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G05—CONTROLLING; REGULATING
- G05B—CONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL; FUNCTIONAL ELEMENTS OF SUCH SYSTEMS; MONITORING OR TESTING ARRANGEMENTS FOR SUCH SYSTEMS OR ELEMENTS
- G05B19/00—Programme-control systems
- G05B19/02—Programme-control systems electric
- G05B19/418—Total factory control, i.e. centrally controlling a plurality of machines, e.g. direct or distributed numerical control [DNC], flexible manufacturing systems [FMS], integrated manufacturing systems [IMS] or computer integrated manufacturing [CIM]
- G05B19/41885—Total factory control, i.e. centrally controlling a plurality of machines, e.g. direct or distributed numerical control [DNC], flexible manufacturing systems [FMS], integrated manufacturing systems [IMS] or computer integrated manufacturing [CIM] characterised by modeling, simulation of the manufacturing system
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G05—CONTROLLING; REGULATING
- G05B—CONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL; FUNCTIONAL ELEMENTS OF SUCH SYSTEMS; MONITORING OR TESTING ARRANGEMENTS FOR SUCH SYSTEMS OR ELEMENTS
- G05B19/00—Programme-control systems
- G05B19/02—Programme-control systems electric
- G05B19/04—Programme control other than numerical control, i.e. in sequence controllers or logic controllers
- G05B19/042—Programme control other than numerical control, i.e. in sequence controllers or logic controllers using digital processors
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G05—CONTROLLING; REGULATING
- G05B—CONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL; FUNCTIONAL ELEMENTS OF SUCH SYSTEMS; MONITORING OR TESTING ARRANGEMENTS FOR SUCH SYSTEMS OR ELEMENTS
- G05B23/00—Testing or monitoring of control systems or parts thereof
- G05B23/02—Electric testing or monitoring
- G05B23/0205—Electric testing or monitoring by means of a monitoring system capable of detecting and responding to faults
- G05B23/0259—Electric testing or monitoring by means of a monitoring system capable of detecting and responding to faults characterized by the response to fault detection
- G05B23/0283—Predictive maintenance, e.g. involving the monitoring of a system and, based on the monitoring results, taking decisions on the maintenance schedule of the monitored system; Estimating remaining useful life [RUL]
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G07—CHECKING-DEVICES
- G07C—TIME OR ATTENDANCE REGISTERS; REGISTERING OR INDICATING THE WORKING OF MACHINES; GENERATING RANDOM NUMBERS; VOTING OR LOTTERY APPARATUS; ARRANGEMENTS, SYSTEMS OR APPARATUS FOR CHECKING NOT PROVIDED FOR ELSEWHERE
- G07C5/00—Registering or indicating the working of vehicles
- G07C5/08—Registering or indicating performance data other than driving, working, idle, or waiting time, with or without registering driving, working, idle or waiting time
- G07C5/0816—Indicating performance data, e.g. occurrence of a malfunction
-
- H—ELECTRICITY
- H04—ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
- H04W—WIRELESS COMMUNICATION NETWORKS
- H04W72/00—Local resource management
- H04W72/20—Control channels or signalling for resource management
- H04W72/23—Control channels or signalling for resource management in the downlink direction of a wireless link, i.e. towards a terminal
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G05—CONTROLLING; REGULATING
- G05B—CONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL; FUNCTIONAL ELEMENTS OF SUCH SYSTEMS; MONITORING OR TESTING ARRANGEMENTS FOR SUCH SYSTEMS OR ELEMENTS
- G05B2219/00—Program-control systems
- G05B2219/20—Pc systems
- G05B2219/26—Pc applications
- G05B2219/2637—Vehicle, car, auto, wheelchair
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G05—CONTROLLING; REGULATING
- G05B—CONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL; FUNCTIONAL ELEMENTS OF SUCH SYSTEMS; MONITORING OR TESTING ARRANGEMENTS FOR SUCH SYSTEMS OR ELEMENTS
- G05B2219/00—Program-control systems
- G05B2219/30—Nc systems
- G05B2219/32—Operator till task planning
- G05B2219/32339—Object oriented modeling, design, analysis, implementation, simulation language
-
- H—ELECTRICITY
- H04—ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
- H04W—WIRELESS COMMUNICATION NETWORKS
- H04W4/00—Services specially adapted for wireless communication networks; Facilities therefor
- H04W4/30—Services specially adapted for particular environments, situations or purposes
- H04W4/38—Services specially adapted for particular environments, situations or purposes for collecting sensor information
Landscapes
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Computer Networks & Wireless Communication (AREA)
- Signal Processing (AREA)
- Automation & Control Theory (AREA)
- Manufacturing & Machinery (AREA)
- General Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Quality & Reliability (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Description
Σ_i{F_i×a+f_i×(1-a)-y_i} …(3)
但し、y_iは自個体新データの劣化指標であり、iは自個体新データのサンプル番号。f_iは自個体モデルによる推定値、F_iは他個体モデルによる推定値である。
16 状態推定システム
20 データ収集装置
28 状態推定装置
30 CPU
32 メモリ
34 記憶部
44 状態推定プログラム
50 推定部
52 算出部
54 決定部
56 合成部
Claims (4)
- 第1の製品の将来の状態を推定する推定部を含み、
前記推定部は、
時系列データである前記第1の製品に関するデータを時系列順で上流側の第1のデータと下流側の第2のデータに分割したときの前記第1のデータから第1の外挿推定値を算出すると共に、前記第1の製品と異なる第2の製品に関するデータから第2の外挿推定値を算出する算出部と、
前記第2のデータにおける前記第1の製品の将来の状態を表す指標をy_i、前記第2のデータのサンプル番号をi、前記第1の外挿推定値をf_i、前記第2の外挿推定値をF_iとしたときに、前記第1の外挿推定値と前記第2の外挿推定値との合成比aを、
Σ_i{F_i×a+f_i×(1-a)-y_i}
上記の式により求まる値が最小となるように決定する決定部と、
前記決定部で決定された合成比に基づいて前記第1の外挿推定値と前記第2の外挿推定値とを合成する合成部と、
を含む状態推定装置。 - 前記第2の製品は、前記第1の製品の同型他個体である請求項1記載の状態推定装置。
- 第1の製品の将来の状態を推定するにあたり、
時系列データである前記第1の製品に関するデータを時系列順で上流側の第1のデータと下流側の第2のデータに分割したときの前記第1のデータから第1の外挿推定値を算出すると共に、前記第1の製品と異なる第2の製品に関するデータから第2の外挿推定値を算出すると共に、前記第2のデータにおける前記第1の製品の将来の状態を表す指標をy_i、前記第2のデータのサンプル番号をi、前記第1の外挿推定値をf_i、前記第2の外挿推定値をF_iとしたときに、前記第1の外挿推定値と前記第2の外挿推定値との合成比aを、
Σ_i{F_i×a+f_i×(1-a)-y_i}
上記の式により求まる値が最小となるように決定し、
決定した合成比に基づいて前記第1の外挿推定値と前記第2の外挿推定値とを合成する
ことを含む処理をコンピュータによって実行させる状態推定方法。 - コンピュータに、
第1の製品の将来の状態を推定するにあたり、
時系列データである前記第1の製品に関するデータを時系列順で上流側の第1のデータと下流側の第2のデータに分割したときの前記第1のデータから第1の外挿推定値を算出すると共に、前記第1の製品と異なる第2の製品に関するデータから第2の外挿推定値を算出すると共に、前記第2のデータにおける前記第1の製品の将来の状態を表す指標をy_i、前記第2のデータのサンプル番号をi、前記第1の外挿推定値をf_i、前記第2の外挿推定値をF_iとしたときに、前記第1の外挿推定値と前記第2の外挿推定値との合成比aを、
Σ_i{F_i×a+f_i×(1-a)-y_i}
上記の式により求まる値が最小となるように決定し、
決定した合成比に基づいて前記第1の外挿推定値と前記第2の外挿推定値とを合成する
ことを含む処理を実行させるための状態推定プログラム。
Priority Applications (3)
Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
---|---|---|---|
JP2020191896A JP7480683B2 (ja) | 2020-11-18 | 2020-11-18 | 状態推定装置、方法およびプログラム |
US17/462,001 US12026988B2 (en) | 2020-11-18 | 2021-08-31 | State estimation device, state estimation method and state estimation program |
CN202111113699.9A CN114518728B (zh) | 2020-11-18 | 2021-09-23 | 状态估计装置、方法以及程序 |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
---|---|---|---|
JP2020191896A JP7480683B2 (ja) | 2020-11-18 | 2020-11-18 | 状態推定装置、方法およびプログラム |
Publications (2)
Publication Number | Publication Date |
---|---|
JP2022080689A JP2022080689A (ja) | 2022-05-30 |
JP7480683B2 true JP7480683B2 (ja) | 2024-05-10 |
Family
ID=81587032
Family Applications (1)
Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
---|---|---|---|
JP2020191896A Active JP7480683B2 (ja) | 2020-11-18 | 2020-11-18 | 状態推定装置、方法およびプログラム |
Country Status (2)
Country | Link |
---|---|
JP (1) | JP7480683B2 (ja) |
CN (1) | CN114518728B (ja) |
Citations (2)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
---|---|---|---|---|
JP2016103243A (ja) | 2014-11-28 | 2016-06-02 | キヤノン株式会社 | 予測装置、予測方法、及びプログラム |
JP2018163515A (ja) | 2017-03-24 | 2018-10-18 | 株式会社日立製作所 | 予測システム、及び、予測方法 |
Family Cites Families (6)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
---|---|---|---|---|
JP4703593B2 (ja) * | 2007-03-23 | 2011-06-15 | 株式会社豊田中央研究所 | 二次電池の状態推定装置 |
EP2851851A1 (en) * | 2013-09-20 | 2015-03-25 | Tata Consultancy Services Limited | A computer implemented tool and method for automating the forecasting process |
JP6536295B2 (ja) * | 2015-08-31 | 2019-07-03 | 富士通株式会社 | 予測性能曲線推定プログラム、予測性能曲線推定装置および予測性能曲線推定方法 |
WO2018092312A1 (ja) * | 2016-11-21 | 2018-05-24 | 三菱電機株式会社 | 劣化診断装置、劣化診断方法および劣化診断プログラム |
US11645625B2 (en) * | 2018-08-21 | 2023-05-09 | Job Market Maker, Llc | Machine learning systems for predictive targeting and engagement |
JP2020112491A (ja) * | 2019-01-15 | 2020-07-27 | 住友電気工業株式会社 | パラメータ推定装置、パラメータ推定方法及びコンピュータプログラム |
-
2020
- 2020-11-18 JP JP2020191896A patent/JP7480683B2/ja active Active
-
2021
- 2021-09-23 CN CN202111113699.9A patent/CN114518728B/zh active Active
Patent Citations (2)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
---|---|---|---|---|
JP2016103243A (ja) | 2014-11-28 | 2016-06-02 | キヤノン株式会社 | 予測装置、予測方法、及びプログラム |
JP2018163515A (ja) | 2017-03-24 | 2018-10-18 | 株式会社日立製作所 | 予測システム、及び、予測方法 |
Also Published As
Publication number | Publication date |
---|---|
CN114518728A (zh) | 2022-05-20 |
US20220157091A1 (en) | 2022-05-19 |
CN114518728B (zh) | 2024-02-09 |
JP2022080689A (ja) | 2022-05-30 |
Similar Documents
Publication | Publication Date | Title |
---|---|---|
Zhang et al. | Degradation data analysis and remaining useful life estimation: A review on Wiener-process-based methods | |
US10521490B2 (en) | Equipment maintenance management system and equipment maintenance management method | |
Ghasemi et al. | Optimal condition based maintenance with imperfect information and the proportional hazards model | |
US9477224B2 (en) | Physics-based lifespan modeling | |
US20200300495A1 (en) | Prediction method, model learning method, and non-transitory computer-readable storage medium for storing prediction program | |
JP7145821B2 (ja) | 故障確率評価システムおよびその方法 | |
WO2020110718A1 (ja) | モデル作成装置、モデル作成方法及びプログラム | |
JP7393244B2 (ja) | 時系列データ予測装置及び時系列データ予測方法 | |
JP7276450B2 (ja) | 予測モデル再学習装置、予測モデル再学習方法及びプログラム | |
Fredette et al. | Finite-horizon prediction of recurrent events, with application to forecasts of warranty claims | |
JP7480683B2 (ja) | 状態推定装置、方法およびプログラム | |
JP6381122B2 (ja) | 故障推定装置、故障推定データベース装置、故障推定プログラム、故障推定データベースプログラム、および故障推定システム | |
Carriero et al. | A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK | |
Tian | Better reliability assessment and prediction through data clustering | |
CN110889186B (zh) | 灰关联分析的加速贮存与自然贮存退化数据一致性检验法 | |
KR101828456B1 (ko) | 부분 고장 데이터를 이용한 소프트웨어 신뢰도 평가모델 선택 시스템 및 방법 | |
Anastasiadis et al. | Auto warranty and driving patterns | |
US12026988B2 (en) | State estimation device, state estimation method and state estimation program | |
CN114048085B (zh) | 一种磁盘故障分析方法、装置、设备及可读存储介质 | |
US20220120463A1 (en) | Process for adaptable health, degradation and anomaly detection of systems using benchmarks | |
CN114048592A (zh) | 一种精轧全流程分布式运行性能评估及非优原因追溯方法 | |
JP2008305229A (ja) | 需要予測方法および装置 | |
KR20190015415A (ko) | 동적 시스템에 의한 시스템 상태의 모델-기반 결정 | |
WO2024042733A1 (ja) | 故障確率評価システム | |
CN112445682B (zh) | 一种系统监控方法、装置、设备及存储介质 |
Legal Events
Date | Code | Title | Description |
---|---|---|---|
A621 | Written request for application examination |
Free format text: JAPANESE INTERMEDIATE CODE: A621 Effective date: 20221018 |
|
A977 | Report on retrieval |
Free format text: JAPANESE INTERMEDIATE CODE: A971007 Effective date: 20230914 |
|
A131 | Notification of reasons for refusal |
Free format text: JAPANESE INTERMEDIATE CODE: A131 Effective date: 20231031 |
|
A521 | Request for written amendment filed |
Free format text: JAPANESE INTERMEDIATE CODE: A523 Effective date: 20231225 |
|
TRDD | Decision of grant or rejection written | ||
A01 | Written decision to grant a patent or to grant a registration (utility model) |
Free format text: JAPANESE INTERMEDIATE CODE: A01 Effective date: 20240326 |
|
A61 | First payment of annual fees (during grant procedure) |
Free format text: JAPANESE INTERMEDIATE CODE: A61 Effective date: 20240408 |
|
R150 | Certificate of patent or registration of utility model |
Ref document number: 7480683 Country of ref document: JP Free format text: JAPANESE INTERMEDIATE CODE: R150 |