JP6937227B2 - Power generation amount prediction device, power generation amount prediction system, power generation amount prediction method and power generation amount prediction program - Google Patents

Power generation amount prediction device, power generation amount prediction system, power generation amount prediction method and power generation amount prediction program Download PDF

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JP6937227B2
JP6937227B2 JP2017220691A JP2017220691A JP6937227B2 JP 6937227 B2 JP6937227 B2 JP 6937227B2 JP 2017220691 A JP2017220691 A JP 2017220691A JP 2017220691 A JP2017220691 A JP 2017220691A JP 6937227 B2 JP6937227 B2 JP 6937227B2
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solar radiation
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知奈実 橋本
知奈実 橋本
孝雄 野坂
孝雄 野坂
木村　浩二
浩二 木村
建司 皆川
建司 皆川
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Toshiba Infrastructure Systems and Solutions Corp
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    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
    • Y02E10/00—Energy generation through renewable energy sources
    • Y02E10/50—Photovoltaic [PV] energy
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
    • Y02E40/00—Technologies for an efficient electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y02E40/70—Smart grids as climate change mitigation technology in the energy generation sector
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
    • Y02E70/00—Other energy conversion or management systems reducing GHG emissions
    • Y02E70/30—Systems combining energy storage with energy generation of non-fossil origin
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
    • Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

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  • Charge And Discharge Circuits For Batteries Or The Like (AREA)
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Description

本発明の実施形態は、発電量予測装置、発電量予測システム、発電量予測方法及び発電量予測プログラムに関する。 Embodiments of the present invention relate to a power generation amount prediction device, a power generation amount prediction system, a power generation amount prediction method, and a power generation amount prediction program.

太陽光発電（PV：Photovoltaic）システムの発電量は、太陽光発電システムの発電効率と、電力の出力先である機器の状態とに応じて変化する。発電量予測装置は、太陽光発電システムの発電量を予測する場合がある。しかしながら、従来の発電量予測装置は、太陽位置気象補正係数、エリア気象環境係数、ＰＶシステム係数等の多種のデータを扱わなければ、発電量を精度よく予測することができない場合があった。 The amount of power generated by a photovoltaic power generation (PV: Photovoltaic) system changes depending on the power generation efficiency of the photovoltaic power generation system and the state of the equipment to which the power is output. The power generation amount prediction device may predict the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation system. However, the conventional power generation amount prediction device may not be able to accurately predict the power generation amount unless it handles various data such as the sun position meteorological correction coefficient, the area meteorological environment coefficient, and the PV system coefficient.

特開２０１４−０６３３７２号公報Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2014-063372 特開２０１４−２１７０９２号公報Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2014-217092 特開２０１５−０７０６４０号公報Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2015-070640 特開２０１６−１２３１７０号公報Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2016-123170 特開２０１６−１３６８０７号公報Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2016-136807

D. King, W. Boyson, and J. Kratochvil, Photovoltaic Array Performance Model, SAND2004-3535, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, December 2004.D. King, W. Boyson, and J. Kratochvil, Photovoltaic Array Performance Model, SAND2004-3535, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, December 2004.

本発明が解決しようとする課題は、多種のデータを扱うことなく、発電量を予測する精度を向上させることが可能である発電量予測装置、発電量予測システム、発電量予測方法及び発電量予測プログラムを提供することである。 The problem to be solved by the present invention is a power generation amount prediction device, a power generation amount prediction system, a power generation amount prediction method, and a power generation amount prediction that can improve the accuracy of predicting the power generation amount without handling various kinds of data. To provide a program.

実施形態の発電量予測装置は、区分部と、発電効率取得部と、係数取得部と、区分判定部と、予測部とを持つ。区分部は、日射量実績値の集合を複数の日射量区分に区分する。発電効率取得部は、日射量実績値ごとに発電効率を取得する。係数取得部は、発電効率に基づいて日射量区分ごとに係数を取得する。区分判定部は、日射量予測値が含まれている日射量区分がいずれの日射量区分であるかを判定する。予測部は、日射量予測値が含まれている日射量区分の係数と日射量予測値とに基づいて発電量予測値を取得する。 The power generation amount prediction device of the embodiment includes a division unit, a power generation efficiency acquisition unit, a coefficient acquisition unit, a classification determination unit, and a prediction unit. The division section divides the set of the actual solar radiation amount into a plurality of solar radiation amount classifications. The power generation efficiency acquisition unit acquires the power generation efficiency for each actual value of solar radiation. The coefficient acquisition unit acquires a coefficient for each solar radiation amount category based on the power generation efficiency. The classification determination unit determines which solar radiation amount classification is the solar radiation amount classification including the solar radiation amount prediction value. The prediction unit acquires the power generation amount prediction value based on the coefficient of the solar radiation amount classification including the solar radiation amount prediction value and the solar radiation amount prediction value.

第１の実施形態の発電量予測システムの構成の例を示す図。The figure which shows the example of the structure of the power generation amount prediction system of 1st Embodiment. 第１の実施形態の日射量の判定ラインの例を示す図。The figure which shows the example of the determination line of the amount of solar radiation of 1st Embodiment. 第１の実施形態の発電効率の判定ラインの例を示す図。The figure which shows the example of the determination line of the power generation efficiency of 1st Embodiment. 第１の実施形態の発電効率の算出の例を示す図。The figure which shows the example of the calculation of the power generation efficiency of 1st Embodiment. 第１の実施形態の発電効率に関する係数の例を示す図。The figure which shows the example of the coefficient about the power generation efficiency of 1st Embodiment. 第１の実施形態の発電量予測装置の動作の例を示すフローチャート。The flowchart which shows the example of the operation of the power generation amount prediction apparatus of 1st Embodiment. 第２の実施形態の発電効率の算出の例を示す図。The figure which shows the example of the calculation of the power generation efficiency of the 2nd Embodiment. 第２の実施形態の発電量の予測値を表す近似式の例を示す図。The figure which shows the example of the approximate expression which represents the predicted value of the power generation amount of the 2nd Embodiment. 第２の実施形態の日射量の区分の例を示す図。The figure which shows the example of the classification of the amount of solar radiation of the 2nd Embodiment. 第２の実施形態の発電量の予測値の例を示す図。The figure which shows the example of the predicted value of the power generation amount of the 2nd Embodiment. 第２の実施形態の時間帯ごとの発電量の予測値の例を示す図。The figure which shows the example of the predicted value of the power generation amount for each time zone of the 2nd Embodiment.

以下、実施形態の発電量予測装置、発電量予測システム、発電量予測方法及び発電量予測プログラムを、図面を参照して説明する。 Hereinafter, the power generation amount prediction device, the power generation amount prediction system, the power generation amount prediction method, and the power generation amount prediction program of the embodiment will be described with reference to the drawings.

図１は、発電量予測システム１０の構成の例を示す図である。発電量予測システム１０は、エネルギー機器最適運用システム１と、太陽光発電設備２と、気象情報提供設備３と、エネルギー設備４と、蓄電池設備５とを備える。エネルギー機器最適運用システム１は、例えば、分散電源ＥＭＳ（Energy Management System）である。エネルギー機器最適運用システム１は、発電量の予測値に基づく制御信号を生成する。エネルギー機器最適運用システム１は、太陽光発電設備２、エネルギー設備４及び蓄電池設備５に、制御信号を出力する。以下において「取得する」とは、効率や係数等の値をデータテーブルから取得するという意味でもよいし、効率や係数等の値を算出するという意味でもよい。 FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of the power generation amount prediction system 10. The power generation amount prediction system 10 includes an energy equipment optimum operation system 1, a solar power generation facility 2, a weather information providing facility 3, an energy facility 4, and a storage battery facility 5. The energy equipment optimum operation system 1 is, for example, a distributed power source EMS (Energy Management System). The energy equipment optimum operation system 1 generates a control signal based on a predicted value of the amount of power generation. The energy equipment optimum operation system 1 outputs a control signal to the photovoltaic power generation equipment 2, the energy equipment 4, and the storage battery equipment 5. In the following, "acquiring" may mean acquiring values such as efficiency and coefficient from a data table, or may mean calculating values such as efficiency and coefficient.

太陽光発電設備２は、太陽光を用いて発電する設備である。太陽光発電設備２の発電量は、太陽光発電システムの発電効率と、電力の出力先であるエネルギー設備の機器の状態等とに応じて変化する。太陽光発電システムの発電効率は、日射量に応じて変化する。エネルギー設備の機器の状態とは、例えば、電力を消費する機器の動作状態や、パワーコンディショナの変換効率である。 The photovoltaic power generation facility 2 is a facility that generates electricity using sunlight. The amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 2 changes depending on the power generation efficiency of the photovoltaic power generation system, the state of the equipment of the energy facility to which the power is output, and the like. The power generation efficiency of a photovoltaic power generation system changes according to the amount of solar radiation. The state of the equipment of the energy equipment is, for example, the operating state of the equipment that consumes electric power and the conversion efficiency of the power conditioner.

気象情報提供設備３は、気象情報を提供する設備である。気象情報は、例えば、日射量予報、風の強さの予報である。気象情報提供設備３は、日射量の予測値である日射量予報データを、気象情報に基づいて生成する。気象情報提供設備３は、日射量予報データをエネルギー機器最適運用システム１に提供する。 The weather information providing facility 3 is a facility that provides weather information. The weather information is, for example, a solar radiation amount forecast and a wind strength forecast. The meteorological information providing facility 3 generates solar radiation amount forecast data, which is a predicted value of the solar radiation amount, based on the weather information. The weather information providing facility 3 provides the solar radiation amount forecast data to the energy equipment optimum operation system 1.

エネルギー設備４は、電力や燃料等のエネルギーを消費する設備である。エネルギー設備４は、電力等のエネルギーを消費する機器を備える。エネルギー設備４の機器は、エネルギー機器最適運用システム１から出力された制御信号に応じて、電力等のエネルギーを消費する。 The energy facility 4 is a facility that consumes energy such as electric power and fuel. The energy equipment 4 includes equipment that consumes energy such as electric power. The equipment of the energy equipment 4 consumes energy such as electric power according to the control signal output from the energy equipment optimum operation system 1.

蓄電池設備５は、リチウムイオン電池等の蓄電池を備える設備である。蓄電池は、エネルギー機器最適運用システム１から取得された制御信号に応じて、太陽光発電設備２によって発電された電力を蓄積する。蓄電池は、エネルギー機器最適運用システム１から取得された制御信号に応じて、エネルギー設備４に電力を出力する。 The storage battery facility 5 is a facility provided with a storage battery such as a lithium ion battery. The storage battery stores the electric power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 2 in response to the control signal acquired from the energy device optimum operation system 1. The storage battery outputs electric power to the energy equipment 4 in response to the control signal acquired from the energy equipment optimum operation system 1.

次に、エネルギー機器最適運用システム１の構成の例を説明する。
エネルギー機器最適運用システム１は、発電量予測装置１１と、入出力部１２と、発電量・日射量実績収集部１３と、気象情報収集部１４と、エネルギー機器計画部１５と、エネルギー機器制御部１６と、エネルギー機器運用パターン記憶部１７とを備える。 Next, an example of the configuration of the energy equipment optimum operation system 1 will be described.
The energy equipment optimum operation system 1 includes a power generation amount prediction device 11, an input / output unit 12, a power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual collection unit 13, a weather information collection unit 14, an energy equipment planning unit 15, and an energy equipment control unit. 16 and an energy device operation pattern storage unit 17.

発電量予測装置１１は、発電量を予測する情報処理装置である。発電量予測装置１１は、太陽光発電設備２による発電量を、日射量予報に基づいて予測する。発電量予測装置１１は、時間単位の発電量の予測値を表す発電量予測データを、エネルギー機器計画部１５に出力する。 The power generation amount prediction device 11 is an information processing device that predicts the power generation amount. The power generation amount forecasting device 11 predicts the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility 2 based on the solar radiation amount forecast. The power generation amount prediction device 11 outputs the power generation amount prediction data representing the predicted value of the power generation amount in an hour unit to the energy equipment planning unit 15.

以下、予測に用いられる日射量の上限閾値を「日射量上限判定ライン」という。以下、予測に用いられる日射量の下限閾値を「日射量下限判定ライン」という。 Hereinafter, the upper limit threshold value of the amount of solar radiation used for prediction is referred to as "the upper limit determination line of the amount of solar radiation". Hereinafter, the lower limit threshold value of the amount of solar radiation used for prediction is referred to as "the lower limit judgment line of the amount of solar radiation".

入出力部１２は、キーボード、マウス、タッチパネル等の操作デバイスである。入出力部１２は、データを送信及び受信する通信装置でもよい。入出力部１２は、日射量の区分を表す日射量区分データと、日射量上限判定ラインと、日射量下限判定ラインと、発電効率に関する係数（固定値）を算出するために必要とされる発電効率データの個数データとを取得する。入出力部１２は、日射量区分データと、日射量上限判定ラインと、日射量下限判定ラインと、発電効率データの個数データとを、発電量予測装置１１に出力する。 The input / output unit 12 is an operation device such as a keyboard, a mouse, and a touch panel. The input / output unit 12 may be a communication device that transmits and receives data. The input / output unit 12 is required to calculate the solar radiation amount classification data representing the solar radiation amount classification, the solar radiation amount upper limit determination line, the solar radiation amount lower limit determination line, and a coefficient (fixed value) related to power generation efficiency. The number of efficiency data and the data are acquired. The input / output unit 12 outputs the solar radiation amount classification data, the solar radiation amount upper limit determination line, the solar radiation amount lower limit determination line, and the number data of the power generation efficiency data to the power generation amount prediction device 11.

発電量・日射量実績収集部１３は、太陽光発電設備２における発電量の実績値である発電量実績データを、所定周期で太陽光発電設備２から収集する。発電量・日射量実績収集部１３は、太陽光発電設備２における日射量の実績値である日射量実績データを、太陽光発電設備２から収集する。日射量実績データが１時間ごとに収集されており、予測対象の時間帯が９時から１７時までであり、予測に使う実績日数が３０日分の日射量実績データが取得されている場合、収集される日射量実績データの個数は、２４０（＝８×３０）個である。発電量・日射量実績収集部１３は、発電量実績データ及び日射量実績データを、発電量予測装置１１に出力する。日射量実績データは、数分間ごとの日射量の複数の実績値の平均値でもよい。 The power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual collection unit 13 collects the power generation amount actual data which is the actual value of the power generation amount in the solar power generation facility 2 from the solar power generation facility 2 at a predetermined cycle. The power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual collection unit 13 collects the solar radiation amount actual data which is the actual value of the solar radiation amount in the photovoltaic power generation facility 2 from the photovoltaic power generation facility 2. When the actual solar radiation data is collected every hour, the time zone to be predicted is from 9:00 to 17:00, and the actual number of days used for prediction is 30 days' worth of actual solar radiation data. The number of solar radiation amount actual data collected is 240 (= 8 × 30). The power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual collection unit 13 outputs the power generation amount actual data and the solar radiation amount actual data to the power generation amount prediction device 11. The actual amount of solar radiation data may be the average value of a plurality of actual values of the amount of solar radiation every few minutes.

気象情報収集部１４は、気象情報を気象情報提供設備３から収集する。気象情報収集部１４は、日射量予報データを含む気象情報を、発電量予測装置１１に出力する。
エネルギー機器計画部１５は、発電量予測データを発電量予測装置１１から取得する。エネルギー機器計画部１５は、エネルギー設備４の機器の運用パターンを表す運用パターン情報を、発電量予測データに基づいて生成する。 The meteorological information collecting unit 14 collects meteorological information from the meteorological information providing facility 3. The weather information collecting unit 14 outputs the weather information including the solar radiation amount forecast data to the power generation amount prediction device 11.
The energy equipment planning unit 15 acquires the power generation amount prediction data from the power generation amount prediction device 11. The energy equipment planning unit 15 generates operation pattern information representing the operation pattern of the equipment of the energy equipment 4 based on the power generation amount prediction data.

エネルギー機器制御部１６は、エネルギー設備４の機器の動作を制御するための制御信号を、運用パターン情報に基づいて生成する。エネルギー機器制御部１６は、エネルギー設備４に制御信号を出力する。
エネルギー機器運用パターン記憶部１７は、エネルギー設備４の機器の運用パターン情報を記憶する。 The energy equipment control unit 16 generates a control signal for controlling the operation of the equipment of the energy equipment 4 based on the operation pattern information. The energy equipment control unit 16 outputs a control signal to the energy equipment 4.
The energy device operation pattern storage unit 17 stores the operation pattern information of the device of the energy facility 4.

次に、発電量予測装置１１の構成の例を説明する。
発電量予測装置１１は、発電量・日射量実績日射量区分部１１０１と、発電効率算出・判定部１１０２と、発電予測可否判定・発電効率係数算出部１１０３と、予測日射量区分判定部１１０４と、発電量予測部１１０５と、日射量区分データ記憶部１１０６と、発電量・日射量実績データ記憶部１１０７と、発電量・日射量実績・日射量区分データ記憶部１１０８と、発電効率上下限データ記憶部１１０９と、実績データ単位発電効率データ記憶部１１１０と、発電予測可否判定データ記憶部１１１１と、日射量区分別発電効率係数記憶部１１１２と、日射量予報データ記憶部１１１３と、日射量予報日射量区分データ記憶部１１１４と、予測発電量データ記憶部１１１５とを備える。 Next, an example of the configuration of the power generation amount prediction device 11 will be described.
The power generation amount prediction device 11 includes a power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual solar radiation amount classification unit 1101, a power generation efficiency calculation / judgment unit 1102, a power generation prediction possibility determination / power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103, and a predicted solar radiation amount classification determination unit 1104. , Power generation amount prediction unit 1105, solar radiation amount classification data storage unit 1106, power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual data storage unit 1107, power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual / solar radiation amount classification data storage unit 1108, and power generation efficiency upper and lower limit data. Storage unit 1109, actual data unit power generation efficiency data storage unit 1110, power generation prediction availability judgment data storage unit 1111, power generation efficiency coefficient storage unit 1112 for each solar radiation amount classification, solar radiation amount forecast data storage unit 1113, and solar radiation amount forecast. It includes a solar radiation amount classification data storage unit 1114 and a predicted power generation amount data storage unit 1115.

各機能部のうち一部又は全部は、例えば、ＣＰＵ（Central Processing Unit）等のプロセッサが、プログラムを実行することにより実現される。各機能部のうち一部又は全部は、ＬＳＩ（Large Scale Integration）やＡＳＩＣ（Application Specific Integrated Circuit）等のハードウェアを用いて実現されてもよい。また、各機能部は、クラウド技術によって複数の情報処理装置に分散されていてもよい。 Part or all of each functional unit is realized by, for example, a processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) executing a program. A part or all of each functional unit may be realized by using hardware such as LSI (Large Scale Integration) or ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit). Further, each functional unit may be distributed to a plurality of information processing devices by cloud technology.

各記憶部は、フラッシュメモリ、ＨＤＤ（Hard Disk Drive）などの不揮発性の記憶媒体（非一時的な記憶媒体）を有する。各記憶部は、例えば、ＲＡＭ（Random Access Memory）やレジスタなどの揮発性の記憶媒体を有していてもよい。 Each storage unit has a non-volatile storage medium (non-temporary storage medium) such as a flash memory and an HDD (Hard Disk Drive). Each storage unit may have, for example, a volatile storage medium such as a RAM (Random Access Memory) or a register.

発電量・日射量実績日射量区分部１１０１は、発電量実績データ及び日射量実績データを、発電量・日射量実績データ記憶部１１０７から取得する。発電量・日射量実績日射量区分部１１０１は、日射量実績データが表す日射量の実績値の有効範囲を、複数の日射量区分に区分する。 The power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual solar radiation amount classification unit 1101 acquires the power generation amount actual data and the solar radiation amount actual data from the power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual data storage unit 1107. The power generation amount / actual solar radiation amount classification unit 1101 classifies the effective range of the actual value of the solar radiation amount represented by the actual solar radiation amount data into a plurality of solar radiation amount classifications.

図２は、日射量の判定ラインの例を示す図である。横軸は、所定時間帯において測定された日射量実績データの瞬時値を表す。所定時間帯の長さは、例えば、数分間、３０分間、１時間である。以下では、所定時間帯の長さは、一例として１時間である。縦軸は、同じ所定時間帯において発電された電力量（発電電力量）を表す。以下に示す図２、図３、図４、図７における各横軸は、瞬時値の平均値を表してもよく、例えば、時刻ＸＸ：００から時刻ＸＸ：３０までの発電量に対して、時刻ＸＸ：００と時刻ＸＸ：３０との２点の瞬時値の平均値を表してもよい。 FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of a determination line for the amount of solar radiation. The horizontal axis represents the instantaneous value of the actual amount of solar radiation measured in a predetermined time zone. The length of the predetermined time zone is, for example, several minutes, 30 minutes, and 1 hour. In the following, the length of the predetermined time zone is one hour as an example. The vertical axis represents the amount of power generated (power generation amount) in the same predetermined time zone. Each horizontal axis in FIGS. 2, 3, 4, and 7 shown below may represent an average value of instantaneous values. For example, with respect to the amount of power generated from time XX: 00 to time XX: 30. The average value of the instantaneous values of the two points of time XX: 00 and time XX: 30 may be represented.

発電量・日射量実績日射量区分部１１０１は、日射量上限判定ラインから日射量下限判定ラインまでの日射量の実績値の範囲を表す有効範囲データと、区分の一例としての「区分１」から「区分５」までの各日射量区分を表す日射量区分データとを、日射量区分データ記憶部１１０６から取得する。発電量・日射量実績日射量区分部１１０１は、日射量の実績値の有効範囲に含まれない日射量実績データを除外する。 The actual insolation amount / solar radiation amount classification unit 1101 is based on the effective range data representing the range of the actual value of the solar radiation amount from the upper limit judgment line of the solar radiation amount to the lower limit judgment line of the solar radiation amount, and from "Category 1" as an example of the classification. The solar radiation amount classification data representing each solar radiation amount classification up to "Category 5" is acquired from the solar radiation amount classification data storage unit 1106. The actual solar radiation amount classification unit 1101 excludes the actual solar radiation amount data that is not included in the effective range of the actual value of the actual solar radiation amount.

発電量・日射量実績日射量区分部１１０１は、日射量区分データに基づいて、日射量の実績値の有効範囲を複数の日射量区分に区分する。図２では、発電量・日射量実績日射量区分部１１０１は、区分の一例としての「区分１」から「区分５」までの日射量区分に、日射量の実績値の有効範囲を区分する。 The power generation amount / actual solar radiation amount classification unit 1101 divides the effective range of the actual value of the solar radiation amount into a plurality of solar radiation amount classifications based on the solar radiation amount classification data. In FIG. 2, the power generation amount / actual solar radiation amount classification unit 1101 divides the effective range of the actual solar radiation amount into the solar radiation amount classifications from “Category 1” to “Category 5” as an example of the classification.

発電効率算出・判定部１１０２は、発電量実績データ及び日射量実績データを、発電量・日射量実績・日射量区分データ記憶部１１０８から取得する。発電効率算出・判定部１１０２は、有効範囲データ及び日射量区分データを、発電量・日射量実績・日射量区分データ記憶部１１０８から取得する。 The power generation efficiency calculation / determination unit 1102 acquires the power generation amount actual data and the solar radiation amount actual data from the power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual / solar radiation amount classification data storage unit 1108. The power generation efficiency calculation / determination unit 1102 acquires the effective range data and the solar radiation amount classification data from the power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual / solar radiation amount classification data storage unit 1108.

発電効率算出・判定部１１０２は、発電量実績データ及び日射量実績データに基づいて、太陽光発電設備２の発電効率を日射量実績データごとに算出する。発電効率算出・判定部１１０２は、発電効率データを日射量実績データごとに、実績データ単位発電効率データ記憶部１１１０に記録する。 The power generation efficiency calculation / determination unit 1102 calculates the power generation efficiency of the photovoltaic power generation facility 2 for each solar radiation amount actual data based on the power generation amount actual data and the solar radiation amount actual data. The power generation efficiency calculation / determination unit 1102 records the power generation efficiency data in the power generation efficiency data storage unit 1110 in the actual data unit for each actual solar radiation amount data.

以下、予測に用いられる発電効率の上限閾値を「発電効率上限判定ライン」という。以下、予測に用いられる発電効率の下限閾値を「発電効率下限判定ライン」という。 Hereinafter, the upper limit threshold value of the power generation efficiency used for the prediction is referred to as a “power generation efficiency upper limit determination line”. Hereinafter, the lower limit threshold value of the power generation efficiency used for the prediction is referred to as a “power generation efficiency lower limit determination line”.

図３は、発電効率の判定ラインの例を示す図である。発電効率算出・判定部１１０２は、発電効率上限判定ラインから発電効率下限判定ラインからまでの発電効率の有効範囲に発電効率データが含まれているか否かを、日射量実績データごとに判定する。発電効率算出・判定部１１０２は、発電効率の有効範囲に含まれていない発電効率データの日射量実績データを、予測に用いられる発電効率の日射量実績データの集合から除外する。 FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of a power generation efficiency determination line. The power generation efficiency calculation / determination unit 1102 determines for each solar radiation amount actual data whether or not the power generation efficiency data is included in the effective range of the power generation efficiency from the power generation efficiency upper limit determination line to the power generation efficiency lower limit determination line. The power generation efficiency calculation / determination unit 1102 excludes the actual solar radiation amount data of the power generation efficiency data that is not included in the effective range of the power generation efficiency from the set of the actual solar radiation amount data of the power generation efficiency used for the prediction.

発電予測可否判定・発電効率係数算出部１１０３は、発電効率に関する係数を算出するために必要とされる発電効率データの個数データを、発電予測可否判定データ記憶部１１１１から取得する。発電予測可否判定・発電効率係数算出部１１０３は、個数データが表す個数以上の発電効率データを、実績データ単位発電効率データ記憶部１１１０から取得する。 The power generation prediction possibility determination / power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103 acquires the number data of the power generation efficiency data required for calculating the coefficient related to the power generation efficiency from the power generation prediction possibility determination data storage unit 1111. The power generation prediction propriety determination / power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103 acquires power generation efficiency data equal to or greater than the number represented by the number data from the actual data unit power generation efficiency data storage unit 1110.

発電予測可否判定・発電効率係数算出部１１０３は、発電効率に関する係数を算出するために必要とされる個数以上の発電効率データを取得したか否かを、「区分１」から「区分５」までの日射量区分ごとに判定する。発電予測可否判定・発電効率係数算出部１１０３は、発電効率に関する係数を算出するために必要とされる個数以上の発電効率データを取得した場合、日射量区分における発電効率に関する係数を算出する。発電予測可否判定・発電効率係数算出部１１０３は、発電効率に関する係数を算出した場合、発電量の予測が可能であると判定する。 Whether or not the power generation prediction possibility determination / power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103 has acquired more power generation efficiency data than required for calculating the power generation efficiency coefficient is determined from "Category 1" to "Category 5". Judgment is made for each solar radiation amount classification. When the power generation predictability determination / power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103 acquires more power generation efficiency data than the number required for calculating the power generation efficiency coefficient, the power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103 calculates the power generation efficiency coefficient in the solar radiation amount classification. Power Generation Predictability Judgment-The power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103 determines that the amount of power generation can be predicted when the coefficient related to the power generation efficiency is calculated.

図４は、発電効率の算出の例を示す図である。発電予測可否判定・発電効率係数算出部１１０３は、日射量区分ごとの発電効率に基づいて、発電量の予測に用いられる発電効率に関する係数を日射量区分ごとに算出する。日射量上限判定ラインから日射量下限判定ラインまでの日射量の実績値の範囲を表す有効範囲では、発電効率に関する係数は、日射量に応じて非線形に変化する。発電予測可否判定・発電効率係数算出部１１０３は、日射量の実績値の有効範囲において日射量に応じて非線形に変化する発電効率に関する係数を、日射量区分ごとの発電効率に関する係数に置き換える。 FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of calculation of power generation efficiency. The power generation prediction possibility determination / power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103 calculates a coefficient related to the power generation efficiency used for predicting the power generation amount for each solar radiation amount category based on the power generation efficiency for each solar radiation amount category. In the effective range representing the range of the actual value of the solar radiation amount from the solar radiation upper limit judgment line to the solar radiation lower limit judgment line, the coefficient related to the power generation efficiency changes non-linearly according to the solar radiation amount. The power generation predictability determination / power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103 replaces the coefficient related to the power generation efficiency that changes non-linearly according to the amount of solar radiation in the effective range of the actual value of the amount of solar radiation with the coefficient related to the power generation efficiency for each solar radiation amount category.

発電予測可否判定・発電効率係数算出部１１０３は、日射量区分ごとの複数の発電効率に基づいて、発電効率に関する係数を日射量区分ごとに算出する。例えば、発電予測可否判定・発電効率係数算出部１１０３は、日射量区分ごとの複数の発電効率の実績値の平均値に基づいて、発電効率に関する係数を日射量区分ごとに算出する。発電予測可否判定・発電効率係数算出部１１０３は、日射量区分ごとの発電効率に関する係数を、日射量区分別発電効率係数記憶部１１１２に記録する。 The power generation prediction possibility determination / power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103 calculates a coefficient related to power generation efficiency for each solar radiation amount category based on a plurality of power generation efficiencies for each solar radiation amount category. For example, the power generation predictability determination / power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103 calculates a coefficient related to power generation efficiency for each solar radiation amount category based on the average value of the actual values of a plurality of power generation efficiencies for each solar radiation amount category. The power generation predictability determination / power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103 records the coefficient related to the power generation efficiency for each solar radiation amount category in the power generation efficiency coefficient storage unit 1112 for each solar radiation amount category.

図５は、発電効率に関する係数の例を示す図である。図５では、日射量区分「区分１」の発電効率に関する係数は、「１．９３９８」である。日射量区分「区分１」に対応付けられている式は、「ｙ＝１．９３９８ｘ」である。第１実施形態では、式のｙ切片は０である。 FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of a coefficient relating to power generation efficiency. In FIG. 5, the coefficient relating to the power generation efficiency of the solar radiation amount classification “Category 1” is “1.9398”. The formula associated with the solar radiation amount classification "Category 1" is "y = 1.9398x". In the first embodiment, the y-intercept of the formula is 0.

図１に戻り、発電量予測装置１１の構成の説明を続ける。予測日射量区分判定部１１０４は、予測対象の時間帯における日射量予報データが表す日射量の予測値ｘがいずれの日射量区分に含まれているかを判定する。発電量予測部１１０５は、日射量の予測値ｘが含まれている日射量区分の発電効率に関する係数と日射量予報データとに基づいて、予測対象の時間帯における発電量の予測値ｙを算出する。予測対象の時間帯における日射量予報データが表す日射量の予測値ｘが日射量区分「区分１」に含まれている場合、発電量予測部１１０５は、日射量区分「区分１」の発電効率に関する係数「１．９３９８」を日射量の予測値ｘに乗算することによって、予測対象の時間帯における発電量の予測値ｙ（＝１．９３９８ｘ）を算出する。 Returning to FIG. 1, the description of the configuration of the power generation amount prediction device 11 will be continued. The predicted solar radiation amount classification determination unit 1104 determines which solar radiation amount classification includes the predicted value x of the solar radiation amount represented by the solar radiation amount forecast data in the time zone to be predicted. The power generation amount prediction unit 1105 calculates the predicted value y of the power generation amount in the time zone to be predicted based on the coefficient related to the power generation efficiency of the solar radiation amount category including the predicted value x of the solar radiation amount and the solar radiation amount forecast data. do. When the predicted value x of the solar radiation amount represented by the solar radiation amount forecast data in the time zone to be predicted is included in the solar radiation amount category "Category 1", the power generation amount prediction unit 1105 determines the power generation efficiency of the solar radiation amount category "Category 1". By multiplying the predicted value x of the amount of solar radiation by the coefficient "1.9398" related to the above, the predicted value y (= 1.9398x) of the amount of power generation in the time zone to be predicted is calculated.

なお、発電量予測部１１０５は、式を用いて発電量の予測値ｙを算出する代わりに、発電量の予測値ｙと日射量予報データが表す日射量の実績値ｘとの関係を表すデータテーブルを参照することによって、データテーブルから発電量ｙを取得してもよい。データテーブルは、例えば、日射量区分別発電効率係数記憶部１１１２に記憶される。 In addition, instead of calculating the predicted value y of the power generation amount using the formula, the power generation amount prediction unit 1105 is data representing the relationship between the predicted value y of the power generation amount and the actual value x of the solar radiation amount represented by the solar radiation amount forecast data. The amount of power generation y may be obtained from the data table by referring to the table. The data table is stored in, for example, the power generation efficiency coefficient storage unit 1112 for each solar radiation amount classification.

日射量区分データ記憶部１１０６は、入出力部１２の出力に基づいて、有効範囲データと日射量区分データとを記憶する。 The solar radiation amount classification data storage unit 1106 stores the effective range data and the solar radiation amount classification data based on the output of the input / output unit 12.

発電量・日射量実績データ記憶部１１０７は、例えば３０分間ごとの発電量実績データ及び日射量実績データを、発電量・日射量実績収集部１３から取得する。発電量・日射量実績データ記憶部１１０７は、発電量実績データ及び日射量実績データを記憶する。 The power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual data storage unit 1107 acquires, for example, the power generation amount actual data and the solar radiation amount actual data every 30 minutes from the power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual collection unit 13. The power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual data storage unit 1107 stores the power generation amount actual data and the solar radiation amount actual data.

発電量・日射量実績・日射量区分データ記憶部１１０８は、日射量の有効範囲に含まれている日射量実績データを、３０分間等の時間単位で記憶する。発電量・日射量実績・日射量区分データ記憶部１１０８は、発電量・日射量実績日射量区分部１１０１から出力された日射量区分データを記憶する。 The power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual / solar radiation amount classification data storage unit 1108 stores the solar radiation amount actual data included in the effective range of the solar radiation amount in time units such as 30 minutes. The power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual / solar radiation amount classification data storage unit 1108 stores the solar radiation amount classification data output from the power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual solar radiation amount classification unit 1101.

発電効率上下限データ記憶部１１０９は、発電効率の有効範囲データを記憶する。
実績データ単位発電効率データ記憶部１１１０は、発電効率データを発電量実績データごとに記憶する。
発電予測可否判定データ記憶部１１１１は、発電効率に関する係数を算出するために必要とされる発電効率データの個数データ（必要数データ）を記憶する。 The power generation efficiency upper / lower limit data storage unit 1109 stores the effective range data of the power generation efficiency.
The actual data unit power generation efficiency data storage unit 1110 stores the power generation efficiency data for each power generation amount actual data.
The power generation prediction possibility determination data storage unit 1111 stores the number data (required number data) of the power generation efficiency data required for calculating the coefficient related to the power generation efficiency.

日射量区分別発電効率係数記憶部１１１２は、発電効率に関する係数データを日射量区分ごとに記憶する。
日射量予報データ記憶部１１１３は、所定時間帯の日射量予報データを、例えば１時間等の時間単位で記憶する。
日射量予報日射量区分データ記憶部１１１４は、例えば１時間等の時間単位の日射量予報データを、日射量区分データごとに記憶する。
予測発電量データ記憶部１１１５は、例えば１時間等の時間単位の発電量予測データを、発電量予測部１１０５から取得する。予測発電量データ記憶部１１１５は、時間単位の発電量予測データを記憶する。 The power generation efficiency coefficient storage unit 1112 for each solar radiation amount category stores coefficient data related to power generation efficiency for each solar radiation amount category.
The solar radiation forecast data storage unit 1113 stores the solar radiation forecast data in a predetermined time zone in time units such as one hour.
The solar radiation amount forecast solar radiation amount classification data storage unit 1114 stores the solar radiation amount forecast data in an hour unit such as one hour for each solar radiation amount classification data.
The predicted power generation amount data storage unit 1115 acquires the power generation amount prediction data in an hour unit such as one hour from the power generation amount prediction unit 1105. The predicted power generation amount data storage unit 1115 stores the power generation amount prediction data in units of time.

次に、発電量予測装置１１の動作の例を説明する。
図６は、発電量予測装置１１の動作の例を示すフローチャートである。発電量・日射量実績日射量区分部１１０１及び発電効率算出・判定部１１０２は、予測に用いられる日射量実績データの数だけ、ステップＳ１０１からステップＳ１０２までの手順を、日射量実績データごとに繰り返す。発電量・日射量実績日射量区分部１１０１は、日射量の実績値の有効範囲に含まれない日射量実績データを除外する（ステップＳ１０１）。発電効率算出・判定部１１０２は、発電量実績データ及び日射量実績データに基づいて、太陽光発電設備２の発電効率を日射量実績データごとに算出する。発電効率算出・判定部１１０２は、発電効率の有効範囲に含まれていない発電効率データの日射量実績データを、予測に用いられる発電効率の日射量実績データの集合から除外する（ステップＳ１０２）。 Next, an example of the operation of the power generation amount prediction device 11 will be described.
FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the power generation amount prediction device 11. The power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual solar radiation amount classification unit 1101 and the power generation efficiency calculation / judgment unit 1102 repeat the procedure from step S101 to step S102 for each solar radiation amount actual data as many as the number of solar radiation amount actual data used for prediction. .. The power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual solar radiation amount classification unit 1101 excludes the solar radiation amount actual data that is not included in the effective range of the actual solar radiation amount value (step S101). The power generation efficiency calculation / determination unit 1102 calculates the power generation efficiency of the photovoltaic power generation facility 2 for each solar radiation amount actual data based on the power generation amount actual data and the solar radiation amount actual data. The power generation efficiency calculation / determination unit 1102 excludes the actual solar radiation amount data of the power generation efficiency data that is not included in the effective range of the power generation efficiency from the set of the actual solar radiation amount data of the power generation efficiency used for the prediction (step S102).

発電予測可否判定・発電効率係数算出部１１０３は、発電効率に関する係数を算出するために必要とされる個数以上の発電効率データを取得したか否かを、日射量区分ごとに判定する（ステップＳ１０３）。発電予測可否判定・発電効率係数算出部１１０３は、発電効率に関する係数を算出するために必要とされる個数以上の発電効率データを取得した場合、日射量区分における発電効率に関する係数を算出する（ステップＳ１０４）。 The power generation prediction possibility determination / power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103 determines whether or not the number of power generation efficiency data required for calculating the coefficient related to the power generation efficiency has been acquired for each solar radiation amount classification (step S103). ). When the power generation predictability determination / power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103 acquires more power generation efficiency data than the number required to calculate the power generation efficiency coefficient, the power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103 calculates the power generation efficiency coefficient in the solar radiation amount classification (step). S104).

予測日射量区分判定部１１０４及び発電量予測部１１０５は、予測対象日における予測対象の時間帯の個数だけ、ステップＳ１０５からステップＳ１０６までの手順を、予測対象の時間帯ごとに繰り返す。予測日射量区分判定部１１０４は、予測対象の時間帯における日射量予報データが表す日射量の予測値ｘがいずれの日射量区分に含まれているかを判定する（ステップＳ１０５）。発電量予測部１１０５は、日射量の予測値ｘが含まれている日射量区分の発電効率に関する係数と日射量予報データとに基づいて、予測対象の時間帯における発電量の予測値ｙを算出する（ステップＳ１０６）。 The predicted solar radiation amount classification determination unit 1104 and the power generation amount prediction unit 1105 repeat the procedure from step S105 to step S106 for each time zone of the prediction target for the number of time zones of the prediction target on the prediction target day. The predicted solar radiation amount classification determination unit 1104 determines which solar radiation amount classification includes the predicted value x of the solar radiation amount represented by the solar radiation amount forecast data in the time zone to be predicted (step S105). The power generation amount prediction unit 1105 calculates the predicted value y of the power generation amount in the time zone to be predicted based on the coefficient related to the power generation efficiency of the solar radiation amount category including the predicted value x of the solar radiation amount and the solar radiation amount forecast data. (Step S106).

以上のように、第１の実施形態の発電量予測装置１１は、発電量・日射量実績日射量区分部１１０１と、発電効率算出・判定部１１０２と、発電予測可否判定・発電効率係数算出部１１０３と、予測日射量区分判定部１１０４と、発電量予測部１１０５とを持つ。発電量・日射量実績日射量区分部１１０１は、日射量実績データの集合を複数の日射量区分に区分する。発電効率算出・判定部１１０２は、日射量実績データごとに発電効率を取得する。発電予測可否判定・発電効率係数算出部１１０３は、発電効率に基づいて日射量区分ごとに係数を取得する。予測日射量区分判定部１１０４は、日射量予測データが含まれている日射量区分がいずれの日射量区分であるかを判定する。発電量予測部１１０５は、日射量予測データが含まれている日射量区分の係数と日射量予測データとに基づいて。発電量の予測値を取得する。 As described above, the power generation amount prediction device 11 of the first embodiment includes the power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual solar radiation amount classification unit 1101, the power generation efficiency calculation / determination unit 1102, and the power generation prediction propriety determination / power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit. It has 1103, a predicted solar radiation amount classification determination unit 1104, and a power generation amount prediction unit 1105. The power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual solar radiation amount classification unit 1101 classifies the set of the solar radiation amount actual data into a plurality of solar radiation amount classifications. The power generation efficiency calculation / determination unit 1102 acquires the power generation efficiency for each solar radiation amount actual data. The power generation prediction propriety determination / power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103 acquires a coefficient for each solar radiation amount classification based on the power generation efficiency. The predicted solar radiation amount classification determination unit 1104 determines which solar radiation amount classification is the solar radiation amount classification including the solar radiation amount prediction data. The power generation amount prediction unit 1105 is based on the coefficient of the solar radiation amount classification including the solar radiation amount prediction data and the solar radiation amount prediction data. Get the predicted value of power generation.

これにより、第１の実施形態の発電量予測装置１１は、多種のデータを扱うことなく、発電量を予測する精度を向上させることが可能である。 As a result, the power generation amount prediction device 11 of the first embodiment can improve the accuracy of predicting the power generation amount without handling various types of data.

第１の実施形態の発電量予測装置１１は、日射量区分に区分せずに日射量の有効範囲の全体で発電効率を算出する場合と比較して、発電効率を精度よく算出することができるので、発電量を予測する精度を向上させることが可能である。第１の実施形態の発電量予測装置１１は、日射量に対して非線形である発電効率に関する係数を精度よく算出することができるので、発電量を予測する精度を向上させることが可能である。 The power generation amount prediction device 11 of the first embodiment can calculate the power generation efficiency more accurately than the case where the power generation efficiency is calculated over the entire effective range of the solar radiation amount without classifying the solar radiation amount classification. Therefore, it is possible to improve the accuracy of predicting the amount of power generation. Since the power generation amount prediction device 11 of the first embodiment can accurately calculate a coefficient related to power generation efficiency that is non-linear with respect to the amount of solar radiation, it is possible to improve the accuracy of predicting the amount of power generation.

（第２の実施形態）
第２の実施形態では、日射量区分ごとの固定値である発電効率の平均値を発電量予測部１１０５が用いる代わりに、発電効率の近似式を用いて発電量予測部１１０５が発電量を算出する点が、第１の実施形態と相違する。第２の実施形態では、第１の実施形態との相違点についてのみ説明する。 (Second Embodiment)
In the second embodiment, instead of the power generation amount prediction unit 1105 using the average value of the power generation efficiency, which is a fixed value for each solar radiation amount category, the power generation amount prediction unit 1105 calculates the power generation amount using an approximate expression of the power generation efficiency. The point is different from the first embodiment. In the second embodiment, only the differences from the first embodiment will be described.

図７は、発電効率の算出の例を示す図である。発電予測可否判定・発電効率係数算出部１１０３は、日射量区分ごとの発電効率に基づいて、発電量の予測に用いられる発電効率を表す近似式の係数及び切片を、日射量区分ごとに算出する。 FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of calculation of power generation efficiency. The power generation prediction possibility determination / power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103 calculates the coefficient and section of the approximate expression used for predicting the power generation amount for each solar radiation amount category based on the power generation efficiency for each solar radiation amount category. ..

図８は、発電量の予測値を表す近似式の例を示す図である。図８では、日射量区分「区分１」に対応付けられている一次近似式は、「ｙ＝１．９５４５ｘ−２．９６４５」である。第２実施形態では、発電量に関する式のｙ切片は０でなくてもよい。 FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of an approximate expression representing a predicted value of the amount of power generation. In FIG. 8, the linear approximation formula associated with the solar radiation amount classification “Category 1” is “y = 1.9545x-2.9645”. In the second embodiment, the y-intercept of the equation relating to the amount of power generation does not have to be zero.

図９は、日射量の区分の例を示す図である。予測日射量区分判定部１１０４は、予測対象の時間帯における日射量予報データが表す日射量の予測値ｘがいずれの日射量区分に含まれているかを判定する。図９では、日射量予報データが表す日射量は、一例として６８９．５Ｗ／ｍ２であり、「区分３」に含まれている。 FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of classification of the amount of solar radiation. The predicted solar radiation amount classification determination unit 1104 determines which solar radiation amount classification includes the predicted value x of the solar radiation amount represented by the solar radiation amount forecast data in the time zone to be predicted. In FIG. 9, the amount of solar radiation represented by the solar radiation amount forecast data is 689.5 W / m 2 as an example, and is included in “Category 3”.

図１０は、発電量の予測値の例を示す図である。発電量予測部１１０５は、日射量の予測値ｘが含まれている日射量区分の発電効率に関する係数と日射量予報データとに基づいて、予測対象の時間帯における発電量の予測値ｙを算出する。予測対象の時間帯における日射量予報データが表す日射量の予測値ｘが日射量区分「区分３」に含まれている場合、発電量予測部１１０５は、日射量区分「区分３」に対応付けられた一次近似式「ｙ＝２．１２５９ｘ−１９７．５４」に基づいて、予測対象の時間帯における発電量の予測値ｙを算出する。 FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a predicted value of the amount of power generation. The power generation amount prediction unit 1105 calculates the predicted value y of the power generation amount in the time zone to be predicted based on the coefficient related to the power generation efficiency of the solar radiation amount category including the predicted value x of the solar radiation amount and the solar radiation amount forecast data. do. When the predicted value x of the solar radiation amount represented by the solar radiation amount forecast data in the time zone to be predicted is included in the solar radiation amount classification "Category 3", the power generation amount prediction unit 1105 associates it with the solar radiation amount classification "Category 3". Based on the obtained linear approximation formula “y = 2.1259x-197.54”, the predicted value y of the amount of power generation in the time zone to be predicted is calculated.

図１１は、時間帯ごとの発電量の予測値の例を示す図である。１４時から１５時までの時間帯における日射量の予測値ｘが６８９．５Ｗ／ｍ２である場合、予測日射量区分判定部１１０４は、予測対象の時間帯における日射量予報データが表す日射量の予測値ｘが日射量区分「区分３」に含まれていると判定する。発電量予測部１１０５は、日射量区分「区分３」に対応付けられた一次近似式「ｙ＝２．１２５９ｘ−１９７．５４」に基づいて、予測対象の時間帯における発電量の予測値ｙを１２６８．３ｋＷｈと算出する。 FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of a predicted value of the amount of power generation for each time zone. When the predicted value x of the amount of solar radiation in the time zone from 14:00 to 15:00 is 689.5 W / m 2 , the predicted amount of solar radiation classification determination unit 1104 determines the amount of solar radiation represented by the amount of solar radiation forecast data in the time zone to be predicted. It is determined that the predicted value x of is included in the solar radiation amount classification "Category 3". The power generation amount prediction unit 1105 determines the predicted value y of the power generation amount in the time zone to be predicted based on the linear approximation formula “y = 2.1259x-197.54” associated with the solar radiation amount classification “Category 3”. It is calculated as 1268.3kWh.

以上のように、第２の実施形態の発電量予測装置１１は、発電量予測装置１１は、発電量・日射量実績日射量区分部１１０１と、発電効率算出・判定部１１０２と、発電予測可否判定・発電効率係数算出部１１０３と、予測日射量区分判定部１１０４と、発電量予測部１１０５とを持つ。発電量予測部１１０５は、日射量予測データが含まれている日射量区分の係数を含む近似式と日射量予測データとに基づいて。発電量の予測値を取得する。 As described above, in the power generation amount prediction device 11 of the second embodiment, the power generation amount prediction device 11 includes the power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual solar radiation amount classification unit 1101, the power generation efficiency calculation / determination unit 1102, and the power generation prediction possibility. It has a determination / power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1103, a predicted solar radiation amount classification determination unit 1104, and a power generation amount prediction unit 1105. The power generation amount prediction unit 1105 is based on an approximate expression including a coefficient of the solar radiation amount classification including the solar radiation amount prediction data and the solar radiation amount prediction data. Get the predicted value of power generation.

これにより、第２の実施形態の発電量予測装置１１は、多種のデータを扱うことなく、発電量を予測する精度を向上させることが可能である。 As a result, the power generation amount prediction device 11 of the second embodiment can improve the accuracy of predicting the power generation amount without handling various types of data.

以上述べた少なくともひとつの実施形態によれば、日射量予測データが含まれている日射量区分の係数と日射量予測データとに基づいて発電量の予測値を取得する発電量予測部とを持つことにより、多種のデータを扱うことなく、発電量を予測する精度を向上させることができる。 According to at least one embodiment described above, it has a power generation amount prediction unit that acquires a predicted value of the power generation amount based on the coefficient of the solar radiation amount classification including the solar radiation amount prediction data and the solar radiation amount prediction data. As a result, the accuracy of predicting the amount of power generation can be improved without handling various types of data.

以上、本発明のいくつかの実施形態を説明したが、これらの実施形態は、例として提示したものであり、発明の範囲を限定することは意図していない。これら実施形態は、その他の様々な形態で実施されることが可能であり、発明の要旨を逸脱しない範囲で、種々の省略、置き換え、変更を行うことができる。これら実施形態やその変形は、発明の範囲や要旨に含まれると同様に、特許請求の範囲に記載された発明とその均等の範囲に含まれるものである。 Although some embodiments of the present invention have been described above, these embodiments are presented as examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. These embodiments can be implemented in various other forms, and various omissions, replacements, and changes can be made without departing from the gist of the invention. These embodiments and modifications thereof are included in the scope and gist of the invention, as well as in the scope of the invention described in the claims and the equivalent scope thereof.

１…エネルギー機器最適運用システム、２…太陽光発電設備、３…気象情報提供設備、４…エネルギー設備、５…蓄電池設備、１０…発電量予測システム、１１…発電量予測装置、１２…入出力部、１３…発電量・日射量実績収集部、１４…気象情報収集部、１５…エネルギー機器計画部、１６…エネルギー機器制御部、１７…エネルギー機器運用パターン記憶部、１１０１…発電量・日射量実績日射量区分部、１１０２…発電効率算出・判定部、１１０３…発電予測可否判定・発電効率係数算出部、１１０４…予測日射量区分判定部、１１０５…発電量予測部、１１０６…日射量区分データ記憶部、１１０７…発電量・日射量実績データ記憶部、１１０８…発電量・日射量実績・日射量区分データ記憶部、１１０９…発電効率上下限データ記憶部、１１１０…実績データ単位発電効率データ記憶部、１１１１…発電予測可否判定データ記憶部、１１１２…日射量区分別発電効率係数記憶部、１１１３…日射量予報データ記憶部、１１１４…日射量予報日射量区分データ記憶部、１１１５…予測発電量データ記憶部 1 ... Energy equipment optimal operation system, 2 ... Solar power generation equipment, 3 ... Meteorological information provision equipment, 4 ... Energy equipment, 5 ... Storage battery equipment, 10 ... Power generation amount prediction system, 11 ... Power generation amount prediction device, 12 ... Input / output Department, 13 ... Power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual collection department, 14 ... Meteorological information collection department, 15 ... Energy equipment planning department, 16 ... Energy equipment control department, 17 ... Energy equipment operation pattern storage unit 1101 ... Power generation amount / solar radiation amount Actual solar radiation amount classification unit 1102 ... Power generation efficiency calculation / judgment unit 1103 ... Power generation prediction possibility judgment / power generation efficiency coefficient calculation unit 1104 ... Predicted solar power generation amount classification judgment unit 1105 ... Power generation amount prediction unit 1106 ... Solar power generation amount classification data Storage unit, 1107 ... Power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual data storage unit 1108 ... Power generation amount / solar radiation amount actual / solar radiation amount classification data storage unit 1109 ... Power generation efficiency upper and lower limit data storage unit 1110 ... Actual data unit Power generation efficiency data storage Units 1111 ... Power generation prediction availability determination data storage unit 1112 ... Power generation efficiency coefficient storage unit by solar radiation amount classification 1113 ... Solar power generation forecast data storage unit 1114 ... Solar power generation forecast solar power generation amount classification data storage unit 1115 ... Predicted power generation amount Data storage

Claims (9)

日射量実績値の集合を複数の日射量区分に区分する区分部と、
前記日射量実績値ごとに発電効率を取得する発電効率取得部と、
前記発電効率に基づいて前記日射量区分ごとに係数を取得する係数取得部と、
日射量予測値が含まれている前記日射量区分がいずれの前記日射量区分であるかを判定する区分判定部と、
前記日射量予測値が含まれている前記日射量区分の前記係数と前記日射量予測値とに基づいて発電量予測値を取得する予測部と
を備える発電量予測装置。 A division section that divides the set of actual solar radiation amount into multiple solar radiation amount categories,
The power generation efficiency acquisition unit that acquires the power generation efficiency for each actual value of solar radiation,
A coefficient acquisition unit that acquires a coefficient for each of the solar radiation amount categories based on the power generation efficiency, and a coefficient acquisition unit.
A classification determination unit that determines which of the above-mentioned insolation amount classifications includes the insolation amount prediction value, and
A power generation amount prediction device including a prediction unit that acquires a power generation amount prediction value based on the coefficient of the solar radiation amount classification including the solar radiation amount prediction value and the solar radiation amount prediction value. 前記日射量実績値は、第１の時間ごとの日射量の実績値である、請求項１に記載の発電量予測装置。 The power generation amount prediction device according to claim 1, wherein the solar radiation amount actual value is a first hourly solar radiation amount actual value. 前記日射量実績値は、第２の時間ごとの日射量の複数の実績値の平均値である、請求項１に記載の発電量予測装置。 The power generation amount prediction device according to claim 1, wherein the actual amount of solar radiation is an average value of a plurality of actual values of the amount of solar radiation for each second hour. 前記発電効率取得部は、前記発電効率の有効範囲から外れた前記発電効率を示す前記日射量実績値を、前記日射量実績値の集合から除外する、請求項１から請求項３のいずれか一項に記載の発電量予測装置。 Any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the power generation efficiency acquisition unit excludes the actual solar radiation amount value indicating the power generation efficiency outside the effective range of the power generation efficiency from the set of the actual solar radiation amount values. The power generation amount prediction device described in the section. 前記係数取得部は、予め定められた個数以上の前記発電効率に基づいて、前記日射量区分ごとに前記係数を取得する、請求項１から請求項４のいずれか一項に記載の発電量予測装置。 The power generation amount prediction according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the coefficient acquisition unit acquires the coefficient for each of the solar radiation amount categories based on the power generation efficiency of a predetermined number or more. Device. 前記予測部は、前記日射量区分の前記係数を含む式と前記日射量予測値とに基づいて発電量予測値を取得する、請求項１から請求項４のいずれか一項に記載の発電量予測装置。 The power generation amount according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the prediction unit acquires a power generation amount prediction value based on the formula including the coefficient of the solar radiation amount classification and the solar radiation amount prediction value. Predictor. 日射量実績値の集合を複数の日射量区分に区分する区分部と、
前記日射量実績値ごとに発電効率を取得する発電効率取得部と、
前記発電効率に基づいて前記日射量区分ごとに係数を取得する係数取得部と、
日射量予測値が含まれている前記日射量区分がいずれの前記日射量区分であるかを判定する区分判定部と、
前記日射量予測値が含まれている前記日射量区分の前記係数と前記日射量予測値とに基づいて発電量予測値を取得する予測部と、
前記発電量予測値に基づく制御信号に応じて蓄電する蓄電池と
を備える発電量予測システム。 A division section that divides the set of actual solar radiation amount into multiple solar radiation amount categories,
The power generation efficiency acquisition unit that acquires the power generation efficiency for each actual value of solar radiation,
A coefficient acquisition unit that acquires a coefficient for each of the solar radiation amount categories based on the power generation efficiency, and a coefficient acquisition unit.
A classification determination unit that determines which of the above-mentioned insolation amount classifications includes the insolation amount prediction value, and
A prediction unit that acquires a power generation amount prediction value based on the coefficient of the insolation amount classification including the insolation amount prediction value and the insolation amount prediction value, and a prediction unit.
A power generation amount prediction system including a storage battery that stores electricity according to a control signal based on the power generation amount prediction value. 発電量予測装置が実行する発電量予測方法であって、
日射量実績値の集合を複数の日射量区分に区分するステップと、
前記日射量実績値ごとに発電効率を取得するステップと、
前記発電効率に基づいて前記日射量区分ごとに係数を取得するステップと、
日射量予測値が含まれている前記日射量区分がいずれの前記日射量区分であるかを判定するステップと、
前記日射量予測値が含まれている前記日射量区分の前記係数と前記日射量予測値とに基づいて発電量予測値を取得するステップと
を含む発電量予測方法。 It is a power generation amount prediction method executed by the power generation amount prediction device.
Steps to divide the set of actual solar radiation amount into multiple solar radiation amount categories,
Steps to acquire power generation efficiency for each actual amount of solar radiation,
A step of acquiring a coefficient for each of the solar radiation amount categories based on the power generation efficiency, and
A step of determining which of the insolation amount categories the insolation amount category including the predicted insolation amount is.
A power generation amount prediction method including a step of acquiring a power generation amount predicted value based on the coefficient of the solar radiation amount category including the solar radiation amount predicted value and the solar radiation amount predicted value. コンピュータに、
日射量実績値の集合を複数の日射量区分に区分する手順と、
前記日射量実績値ごとに発電効率を取得する手順と、
前記発電効率に基づいて前記日射量区分ごとに係数を取得する手順と
日射量予測値が含まれている前記日射量区分がいずれの前記日射量区分であるかを判定する手順と、
前記日射量予測値が含まれている前記日射量区分の前記係数と前記日射量予測値とに基づいて発電量予測値を取得する手順と
を実行させるための発電量予測プログラム。 On the computer
The procedure for dividing the set of actual solar radiation amount into multiple solar radiation amount categories, and
The procedure for acquiring power generation efficiency for each actual amount of solar radiation and
A procedure for acquiring a coefficient for each of the insolation amount categories based on the power generation efficiency, a procedure for determining which of the insolation amount categories the insolation amount category including the predicted insolation amount is, and a procedure for determining which of the insolation amount categories.
A power generation amount prediction program for executing a procedure for acquiring a power generation amount predicted value based on the coefficient of the solar radiation amount category including the solar radiation amount predicted value and the solar radiation amount predicted value.
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