JP6621208B2 - Program, apparatus and method for estimating necessity of two-way transportation between places of stay - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a technique for estimating a movement amount of a person based on position information of a mobile terminal.

  Conventionally, there is a “person trip survey” to grasp the actual amount of movement of people in city planning. For example, it is possible to grasp “which transportation means”, “what kind of person”, “when” and “for what purpose” from the daily movement situation of an individual. This makes it possible to grasp the usage ratio and traffic volume of transportation facilities (for example, railways, automobiles, buses, bicycles, walking). Specifically, for a person who uses a predetermined target area, a destination, a purpose of movement, transportation, and a movement time zone are collected by a questionnaire. For this reason, it can be carried out only once every several years or when necessary, and when a new building or road is newly constructed, the influence of a disaster or the like cannot be reflected instantaneously.

  On the other hand, a technique for automatically measuring a movement amount using data measured by a measuring instrument or a ticket gate on a road and position information of a mobile terminal such as a smartphone has been attracting attention.

There is a technique for observing the amount of movement of each vehicle using a vehicle measuring instrument installed on a road (see, for example, Patent Document 1). According to this technique, OD (Origin, Destination) data in which a departure place, an arrival place, a time zone, and the number of vehicles are associated with each other is created, and a movement amount between the ODs is calculated.
There is also a technique for determining movement / staying based on position information of a mobile terminal and calculating a moving amount of a section longer than a certain staying time for each transportation facility (see, for example, Patent Document 2). According to this technique, it is possible to determine the transportation facility based on the moving speed.
Furthermore, there is a technique for generating a movable area of a mobile object based on position information of the mobile terminal (see, for example, Patent Document 3). According to this technique, the transportation facility is determined based on the acceleration, and the movement amount in each transportation facility is calculated based on the moving direction of the moving body.

JP 2005-182383 A JP 2005-115557 A JP 2006-066632 A

According to the technique described in Patent Document 1, it is necessary to install a vehicle measuring instrument on the road, and it is not intended to estimate an overall movement amount as in a person trip survey. In particular, the amount of movement cannot be measured for transportation other than cars and buses.
On the other hand, according to the techniques described in Patent Documents 2 and 3, it is possible to calculate the movement amount based on the OD between consecutive staying places.

  On the other hand, the inventors of the present application may be able to examine the necessity of transportation by the flow of people between the places of stay. I thought. In particular, it seems that there is a need to consider the transportation system between places where there is no continuous transition in time series due to the movement of the user (no direct connection) and there is a large amount of potential movement. In other words, it is possible to consider building a new route between the places to stay and offloading the overall movement amount of people.

  Therefore, an object of the present invention is to provide a program, an apparatus, and a method for estimating the necessity of a two-way transportation facility that travels between places of stay based on time-series position information of a plurality of mobile terminals.

According to the present invention, based on time-series position information of a plurality of mobile terminals, a program that causes a computer to function to estimate the necessity of a two-way transportation facility that travels between places of stay,
A moving speed range setting means for setting a moving speed range;
A moving speed calculating means for calculating a moving speed and a traveling direction between the first place of stay and the second place of stay for each portable terminal;
A mobile terminal having a moving speed included in the moving speed range is selected, the number of first traveling direction terminals traveling from the first place of stay to the second place of stay, and the second place of stay to the first place of stay. A terminal number counting means for counting the number of second traveling direction terminals in which
Two-way transportation estimation for estimating the necessity of two-way transportation is high when the ratio between the number of first traveling direction terminals and the second number of traveling direction terminals is within a predetermined range between the places of stay A computer is functioned as means.

According to another embodiment of the program of the present invention,
The moving speed range setting means sets a moving speed range for each moving object that moves between the first place of stay and the second place of stay,
The terminal number counting means counts the total number of mobile terminals having a moving speed included in the moving speed range for each moving body, and counts the first traveling direction terminal number and the second traveling direction terminal number. It is also preferable to make the computer function.

According to another embodiment of the program of the present invention,
The moving speed range setting means sets a moving speed range for each moving object that moves between the first place of stay and the second place of stay,
The terminal number counting means
For each moving object, select a mobile terminal with a moving speed included in the moving speed range,
For each moving object, generate an approximate movement trajectory between the first place of stay and the second place of stay from the time-series position information of the plurality of selected mobile terminals,
Select the moving body of the movement locus closest to the shortest line segment connecting the first place of stay and the second place of stay,
It is also preferable to cause the computer to function to count the first traveling direction terminal number and the second traveling direction terminal number for the selected moving body.

According to another embodiment of the program of the present invention,
For each portable terminal, a stay location estimating means for determining a stay status from time-series location information and estimating the stay status location information as a stay location;
For each mobile terminal, a stay location grouping means for classifying a group of stay locations on a movement trajectory that has moved between predetermined stay locations as one session;
For each mobile terminal, a stay location pair extracting means for extracting all combinations of stay location pairs generated in the same session,
A co-occurrence degree giving means for giving a co-occurrence degree based on the number of appearances of stay place pairs or stay places in all mobile terminal sessions, for each stay place pair;
First stay place pair selection means for selecting only stay place pairs whose co-occurrence degree is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold;
The computer is further functioned as a second stay place pair selection means for selecting only stay place pairs that do not continuously transition in time series,
It is also preferable to estimate the necessity of a two-way transportation system that goes back and forth between places of stay with a large amount of potential movement selected by the second place of stay pair selection means.

According to another embodiment of the program of the present invention,
The co-occurrence degree granting means is
For each mobile device, the number of appearances = 1 for the stay location pair that appeared in the same session,
It is also preferable to make the computer function so that the sum of the number of appearances of the stay destination pairs in the sessions of all the mobile terminals ΣU is given as the co-occurrence degree.

According to another embodiment of the program of the present invention,
The co-occurrence degree granting means is
It is also preferable to cause the computer to function as a co-occurrence degree based on multiplication of the number of appearances of the first place of stay and the number of appearances of the second place of stay in all sessions of the mobile terminal ΣU.

According to another embodiment of the program of the present invention,
It is also preferable that the stay location estimating means extracts a stay for a predetermined time or more in the time-series position information, and causes the computer to function so as to estimate the stay position as the stay place.

According to the present invention, based on time-series position information of a plurality of mobile terminals, an apparatus for estimating the necessity of a two-way transportation facility that travels between places of stay,
A moving speed range setting means for setting a moving speed range;
A moving speed calculating means for calculating a moving speed and a traveling direction between the first place of stay and the second place of stay for each portable terminal;
A mobile terminal having a moving speed included in the moving speed range is selected, the number of first traveling direction terminals traveling from the first place of stay to the second place of stay, and the second place of stay to the first place of stay. A terminal number counting means for counting the number of second traveling direction terminals in which
Two-way transportation estimation for estimating the necessity of two-way transportation is high when the ratio between the number of first traveling direction terminals and the second number of traveling direction terminals is within a predetermined range between the places of stay Means.

According to the present invention, based on time-series position information of a plurality of mobile terminals, an estimation method for an apparatus for estimating the necessity of a two-way transportation facility that travels between places of stay,
The device
The moving speed range is set,
For each mobile terminal, a first step of calculating a moving speed and a traveling direction between the first place of stay and the second place of stay;
A mobile terminal having a moving speed included in the moving speed range is selected, the number of first traveling direction terminals traveling from the first place of stay to the second place of stay, and the second place of stay to the first place of stay. A second step of counting a second traveling direction terminal number of
A third step of estimating that there is a high need for two-way transportation when the ratio between the number of first traveling direction terminals and the second number of traveling direction terminals is within a predetermined range between the places of stay; It is characterized by performing.

  According to the program, apparatus, and method of the present invention, it is possible to estimate the necessity of a two-way transportation facility that travels between places of stay based on time-series position information of a plurality of portable terminals. In particular, it is possible to consider the installation of two-way transportation (eg buses, rental bicycles, rental cars) that can offload the overall movement of people between places where there is a lot of potential movement. .

It is a functional block diagram of the estimation apparatus in this invention. It is the 1st explanatory view showing movement speed and advancing direction for every portable terminal. It is the 2nd explanatory view showing movement speed and advancing direction for every portable terminal. It is 3rd explanatory drawing showing the moving speed and the advancing direction for every portable terminal. It is a detailed functional block diagram of the stay location determination part in this invention. It is explanatory drawing showing the stay place transition of 1 session in the user U1. It is explanatory drawing showing the stay place transition of 1 session in the user U2. It is explanatory drawing showing the stay place transition of 1 session in the user U3. It is explanatory drawing showing the combination of all the stay place pairs for every user. It is explanatory drawing showing the co-occurrence degree based on the sum total of the appearance frequency of a stay place pair. It is explanatory drawing showing the co-occurrence degree based on the sum total of the appearance frequency of a stay place. FIG. 11 is a topology diagram in which the co-occurrence degrees in FIG. 10 are assigned to all stay destination pairs that continuously transition. FIG. 12 is a topology diagram in which the co-occurrence degrees in FIG. 11 are assigned to all stay destination pairs that continuously transition. FIG. 11 is a topology diagram in which the co-occurrence degrees in FIG. 10 are assigned to all stay destination pairs that do not continuously transition. FIG. 12 is a topology diagram in which the co-occurrence degrees in FIG. 11 are assigned to all stay destination pairs that do not transition continuously.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 1 is a functional configuration diagram of an estimation apparatus according to the present invention.

The estimation apparatus 1 of the present invention can estimate the necessity of a two-way transportation facility that travels between places of stay based on time-series position information of a plurality of mobile terminals.
A mobile terminal 2 such as a smartphone or a tablet is always carried by the user, and sequentially transmits position information to the estimation device 1. The position information may be, for example, latitude and longitude measured by a GPS (Global Positioning System) mounted on the mobile terminal 2.

  According to FIG. 1, the estimation device 1 includes an inter-stay place determination unit 10, a travel speed calculation unit 11, a travel speed range setting unit 120, a terminal number counting unit 12, and a two-way transportation estimation unit 13. Have. These functional components are realized by executing a program that causes a computer installed in the apparatus to function. Also, the processing flow of these functional components can be understood as an apparatus estimation method.

[Department determination unit 10]
The stay location determination unit 10 determines a stay location based on time-series position information of a plurality of mobile terminals. The estimated stay location is output to the terminal number counting unit 12.
In the simplest case, a stay of a predetermined time (for example, 30 minutes) or more in the time-series position information is extracted, and the position of the stay is estimated as a stay place.
In addition, according to FIGS. 5 to 15 to be described later, the inter-stay place determination unit 10 can estimate the stay place where there is a large amount of potential movement, although there is no continuous transition as the movement of a person. . If such a two-way transportation system can be set up between the places of stay, it is possible to offload the overall movement of people.

[Movement speed calculation unit 11]
The moving speed calculation unit 11 calculates “moving speed” and “traveling direction” between the first place of stay and the second place of stay for each portable terminal.
The “movement speed” can be calculated by dividing the distance between the position information by the time between the positioning times from at least two pieces of position information and the positioning time.
The “traveling direction” is either the first traveling direction from the first place of stay to the second place of stay or the second direction of travel from the second place of stay to the first place of stay. It is.
The moving speed and the traveling direction for each portable terminal are output to the terminal number counting unit 12.

[Movement speed range setting unit 120]
The moving speed range setting unit 120 sets a moving speed range. Only portable terminals that are traveling in this moving speed range can be targeted.
One moving speed range may be used, but a moving speed range may be set for each moving body that moves between the first staying place and the second staying place. The moving body may be a vehicle on which a user carrying a mobile terminal is boarded, such as a bus, a bicycle, or a car. Depending on the moving speed, only a mobile terminal moving with any moving body can be targeted.

For example, a plurality of moving speed ranges can be set according to the moving body as follows.
Travel speed range 12 km / h to 5 km / h (assuming walking)
Movement speed range 2 5km / h-15km / h (assuming bicycle)
Travel speed range 3 15 km / h to 30 km / h (assuming buses)
Movement speed range 4 30 km / h to 50 km / h (assuming automobiles)
Movement speed range 5 50km / h-70km / h (assuming a train)

[Terminal Count Unit 12]
The terminal number counting unit 12 selects a mobile terminal having a moving speed included in the moving speed range, the first traveling direction terminal number traveling from the first staying place to the second staying place, and the second staying place. The number of second traveling direction terminals traveling from to the first place of stay is counted.

  FIG. 2 is a first explanatory diagram showing the moving speed and traveling direction for each portable terminal.

FIG. 2A shows whether or not the moving speed of each portable terminal (the median value of moving speeds) is within the moving speed range set in the moving speed range setting unit 120. Here, it is assumed that all portable terminals ID1 to ID13 are included in the moving speed range. 2 to 4, the numbers surrounded by circles indicate the terminal IDs.
FIG. 2B is a first example showing the traveling direction of each mobile terminal. Here, the first traveling direction terminal number from the staying place A to the staying place B is “8”, and the second traveling direction terminal number from the staying place B to the staying place A is “2”.
FIG. 2C is a second example showing the traveling direction of each mobile terminal. Here, the first traveling direction terminal number from the staying place A to the staying place B is “5”, and the second traveling direction terminal number from the staying place B to the staying place A is “5”.

  FIG. 3 is a second explanatory diagram showing the moving speed and the traveling direction for each portable terminal.

FIG. 3A also shows whether the moving speed of each portable terminal is within the moving speed range set in the moving speed range setting unit 120. Here, it is assumed that only the mobile terminals with IDs 1, 4, 5, 8, and 9 are included in the moving speed range.
FIG. 3B is a first example showing the traveling direction of each mobile terminal. Here, the first number of travel direction terminals heading from the place of stay A to the stay place B is “4”, and the second number of travel direction terminals going from the place of stay B to the stay place A is “1”.
FIG. 3C is a second example showing the traveling direction of each mobile terminal. Here, the first number of travel direction terminals heading from the place of stay A to the stay place B is “2”, and the second number of travel direction terminals going from the place of stay B to the stay place A is “3”.

<Maximum number of terminals>
The terminal number counting unit 12 counts the total number of mobile terminals having a moving speed included in the moving speed range for each moving body. For example, the total number of terminals is counted as follows.
Moving speed range 1 (moving body: “walking” is assumed): 150
Movement speed range 2 (moving body: “bicycle” is assumed): 230
Moving speed range 3 (moving body: “bus” is assumed): 870
Moving speed range 4 (moving body: “automobile” is assumed): 320
Movement speed range 5 (moving body: “train” is assumed): 0
Then, the first traveling direction terminal number and the second traveling direction terminal number are counted for the mobile “bus” having the largest total number of terminals.
Moving speed range 3 (moving body: “bus” is assumed): 870
First direction of travel: 420
Second direction of travel: 450

<Number of terminals with the shortest trajectory>
The terminal number counting unit 12 counts the first traveling direction terminal number and the second traveling direction terminal number by the following S1 to S4.
(S1) For each moving object, a mobile terminal having a moving speed included in the moving speed range is selected.
Moving speed range 1 (moving body: “walking” is assumed): 150
Movement speed range 2 (moving body: “bicycle” is assumed): 230
Moving speed range 3 (moving body: “bus” is assumed): 870
Moving speed range 4 (moving body: “automobile” is assumed): 320
Movement speed range 5 (moving body: “train” is assumed): 0

(S2) Next, an approximate movement trajectory between the first place of stay and the second place of stay is generated from the time-series position information of the plurality of selected mobile terminals for each moving body.
In the simplest case, the position information of the movement trajectory is plotted for all the mobile terminals 2 belonging to the moving speed range of the moving body, and an approximate movement trajectory is generated. As a result, an approximate movement trajectory is generated for each moving object.
Moreover, even if it is the same mobile body, a several movement locus | trajectory can also be extracted for every group by classifying into the group of several positional information, for example by clustering.

FIG. 4 is a third explanatory diagram showing the moving speed and the traveling direction for each portable terminal.
In FIG. 4A, it is assumed that all mobile terminals ID1 to ID13 are included in the movement speed range, as in FIG.
4B and 4C, two approximate movement trajectories are extracted from the position information ID1 to ID13.

(S3) Next, the moving body of the movement locus closest to the shortest line segment connecting the first stay place and the second stay place is selected.
According to FIGS. 4B and 4C, the movement locus y closest to the broken line (shortest line segment) connecting the first stay place and the second stay place is selected.
The moving trajectory may be, for example, a moving average approximate curve of the latitude and longitude of the trajectory estimated as the same cluster with respect to the clustering result of the position information.
Then, for example, in the direction perpendicular to the shortest line segment, the longest distance between the shortest line segment and the movement locus can be extracted, and the movement locus with the shortest distance can be selected.

(S4) Then, the first traveling direction terminal number and the second traveling direction terminal number are counted for the selected moving body.
According to FIGS. 4B and 4C, the first traveling direction terminal number and the second traveling direction terminal number are counted for the mobile terminals in the vicinity of the movement locus y.

[Two-way transportation estimation unit 13]
When the ratio between the number of first traveling direction terminals and the number of second traveling direction terminals is within a predetermined range, the bidirectional transportation estimating unit 13 determines that there is a need for bidirectional transportation. Estimated high.

According to FIG. 2 (b), the ratio of the first traveling direction terminal number and the second traveling direction terminal number is “8: 2”, compared with FIG. 2 (c). The need for is low.
According to FIG. 2 (c), the ratio of the first traveling direction terminal number and the second traveling direction terminal number is “5: 5”, compared with FIG. 2 (b). The need for is high.

According to FIG. 3 (b), the ratio of the number of first traveling direction terminals and the number of second traveling direction terminals is “4: 1”, compared with FIG. 3 (c). The need for is low.
According to FIG. 3 (c), the ratio of the number of first traveling direction terminals and the number of second traveling direction terminals is “2: 3”, compared with FIG. 3 (b). The need for is high.

  According to FIGS. 4 (b) and 4 (c), the ratio of the number of first traveling direction terminals and the number of second traveling direction terminals is “2: 1”, and the necessity of two-way transportation is considered. You can also.

  FIG. 5 is a detailed functional configuration diagram of the stay location determination unit in the present invention.

  According to FIG. 5, the stay location determination unit 10 includes a stay location estimation unit 101, a stay location group classification unit 102, a stay location pair extraction unit 103, a co-occurrence degree assignment unit 104, and a first stay location. A pair selection unit 105 and a second stay destination pair selection unit 106 are provided.

[Stay place estimation unit 101]
The stay location estimation unit 101 collects time-series position information measured by the mobile terminal 2. The position information may be received directly from the mobile terminal 2 or may be acquired from a specific position information server.

Next, the stay location estimation unit 101 determines a stay state from time-series position information for each portable terminal, and estimates the stay state position information as a “stay place”.
Specifically, the stay location estimation unit 101 extracts stays for a predetermined time (for example, 30 minutes) or more in the time-series position information, and estimates the stay location as “stay place”. A staying place ID (IDentifier) is given to each staying place.

  As another embodiment, the stay location estimation unit 101 may estimate “home” from a staying time zone for each mobile terminal. In the case of a high-rise apartment, a large number of mobile terminals may be concentrated as a place of stay even at home. In order to estimate the home, for example, there are the following two methods, but other existing techniques may be used.

(Home estimation based on location information around the address)
The stay location estimation unit 101 registers in advance the address of the user who possesses the mobile terminal, and estimates the location information included in a predetermined radius centered on the address as “home”.
(Home estimation based on the tendency of residence time)
The stay location estimation unit 101 estimates whether or not the user is at home from the tendency of the time zone in which the user holding the mobile terminal stays.
For example, when the time-series position information is “for example, continuously for 6 hours or more in an area range having a radius of 100 m”, the area range can be estimated as “home”. Further, it is also preferable to further add a condition that “the day in which the user stays lasts 6 days or more in one week” and to estimate the area range as “home”.

[Stay Area Group Division 102]
The staying place group sorting unit 102 sorts a group of staying places on the movement locus that has moved between predetermined staying places as one session S for each portable terminal.

  FIGS. 6, 7 and 8 are explanatory diagrams showing the stay location transition of one session in the users U1, U2 and U3.

The “session” is divided into groups of staying places based on predetermined conditions for each portable terminal.
For example, for each mobile terminal, a group of staying places from a staying place estimated to be a home until it arrives (until leaving from the home and returning to the home) may be classified as one session S. Good. The session Sn exists independently for each user Uk. Of course, not only the place of stay at home, but also a start point and an end point may be set in advance and stay place transitions between them may be one session.
Moreover, as another embodiment, between A station and B station may be set as a session. As a result, it is possible to estimate the distance between the station A and the station B where there is a high potential movement amount and not between consecutive staying places.

According to FIG. 6, the staying place of the user U1 in one session is represented.
Continuous transition of the place of stay: A->B->C->D->E-> A
Location of one session: A, B, C, D, E
According to FIG. 7, the staying place of the user U2 in one session is represented.
Continuous transition of the place of stay: G->B->C->D->E->I->E->I->E->D->C->B-> G
Location of one session: B, C, D, E, I, G
According to FIG. 8, the staying place of the user U3 in one session is represented.
Continuous transition of the place of stay: J->E->I->E->D->F->D->C->D->E-> J
Location of one session: C, D, E, F, I, J

[Stay place pair extraction unit 103]
The stay place pair extraction unit 103 extracts stay place pairs of all combinations generated in the same session for each mobile terminal. 6, 7, and 8, the stay destination pairs of the users U 1, U 2, and U 3 are shown.

FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram illustrating combinations of all stay destination pairs for each user Uk.
According to FIG. 9, ten stay place pairs are extracted for one session Sn in user U1, and fifteen stay place pairs are extracted for one session Sn in each of users U2 and U3.

[Co-occurrence degree giving unit 104]
The co-occurrence degree giving unit 104 gives a co-occurrence degree based on the number of appearances of “stay place pairs” or “stay places” in the session S of all mobile terminals ΣU for each stay place pair. Specifically, there are the following two methods.
<Co-occurrence based on the sum of the number of appearances of staying destination pairs>
<Co-occurrence based on the total number of appearances of the place of stay>

<Co-occurrence based on the sum of the number of appearances of staying destination pairs>
For each mobile terminal, the number of appearances = 1 is set for a staying place pair that appeared in the same session Sn. That is, the number of appearances = 1 is counted regardless of how many times the stay place pair ij that appeared in the same session Sn appears in the same session Sn. Specifically, the co-occurrence degree between the first stay place i and the second stay place j in the user Uk is expressed as follows.
pair (i, j, Uk, Sn) = 1
And the sum total of the appearance frequency of the stay place pair in all the sessions ΣS of all the mobile terminals ΣU is given as a co-occurrence degree.
pair (i, j) = Σ _Uk Σ _Sn pair (i, j, Uk, Sn)

FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram showing the degree of co-occurrence based on the total number of appearances of stay destination pairs.
According to FIG. 10, the stay place pairs for each user are arranged in a column on the left side, and the total number of appearances for each stay place pair is shown on the right side as a co-occurrence degree.

<Co-occurrence based on the total number of appearances of the place of stay>
A numerical value based on multiplication of the number of appearances of the first place of stay and the number of appearances of the second place of stay in all the mobile terminal ΣU sessions is given as the co-occurrence degree. Specifically, it is expressed as follows.
pair (i, j) = √ (N (i) × N (j))
N (i): Number of appearances of stay i in all sessions ΣS of all mobile terminals ΣU N (j): Number of appearances of stay j in all sessions ΣS of all mobile terminals ΣU

FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram showing the degree of co-occurrence based on the sum of the number of appearances of the stay place.
According to FIG. 11, the number of appearances of staying places for each user is arranged in a column on the left side, and the number of appearances and co-occurrence degrees for each staying place are shown on the right side. For example, the stay place N (B) = 3 represents that the number of appearances of the stay place B in all sessions ΣS of all mobile terminals ΣU is three.

[First stay destination pair selection unit 105]
First stay place pair selection section 105 selects only stay place pairs whose co-occurrence degree is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold. Here, attention is paid to the apparent movement amount, and a stay place pair having a small co-occurrence degree has a small movement amount in the first place.

FIG. 12 is a topology diagram in which the co-occurrence degrees of FIG. 10 are assigned to all stay destination pairs that continuously transition.
According to FIG. 12, only the stay destination pairs whose co-occurrence degree is equal to or greater than the predetermined threshold value 2 are selected. Here, only the following stay destination pairs are extracted.
B-C-D-E-I

FIG. 13 is a topology diagram in which the co-occurrence degrees of FIG. 11 are assigned to all stay destination pairs that continuously transition.
According to FIG. 13, only the stay place pairs whose co-occurrence degree is equal to or greater than the predetermined threshold 4 are selected. Here, only the following stay destination pairs are extracted.
C-D-E-I

[Second place of stay pair selection unit 106]
The second stay place pair selection unit 106 selects only stay place pairs that do not continuously transition in time series. Whether or not the stay place continuously changes can be determined based on the time series of the stay place estimated by the stay place estimation unit 101. The selected stay location pair is output to the terminal number estimation unit 12 to estimate the necessity of two-way transportation.

FIG. 14 is a topology diagram in which the co-occurrence degree of FIG. 10 is given to all stay destination pairs that do not continuously transition based on FIG.
According to FIG. 14, all the stay place pairs which do not carry out a continuous transition are shown about the stay place of the stay place pair which becomes more than the predetermined threshold value 2 in FIG. This is because a staying place pair that actually continuously transitions in time series is not potential in the first place.
Here, the co-occurrence of the stay destination pair CE is the highest. That is, according to the embodiment based on FIGS. 6 to 10 and FIG. 12, it can be understood that the amount of potential movement of the stay destination CE is the highest. For example, it is possible to consider a detour route for offloading the movement of people between the locations CE.

FIG. 15 is a topology diagram in which the co-occurrence degree of FIG. 11 is given to all stay destination pairs that do not continuously transition based on FIG.
According to FIG. 15, all stay destination pairs that are not continuously transitioned are shown for the stay locations of stay destination pairs that have a co-occurrence degree equal to or greater than the predetermined threshold value 4 and continuously transition in FIG. 13.
Here, the co-occurrence of the stay destination pair CE is the highest. That is, according to the embodiment based on FIGS. 6 to 9, 11, and 13, it can be understood that the amount of potential movement of the stay destination CE is the highest. For example, it is possible to consider a detour route for offloading the movement of people between the locations CE.

  According to FIG.14 and FIG.15, the necessity of a two-way transportation is estimated between the stay places estimated that there is much potential movement amount.

As another embodiment, for each “predetermined time range”, a stay location estimation unit 101, a stay location group classification unit 102, a stay location pair extraction unit 103, a co-occurrence degree assignment unit 104, and a first stay location It is also preferable that the pair selection unit 105 and the second stay destination pair selection unit 106 are executed.
For example, “predetermined time range = 1 day” may be used. For example, if there are three times during the day when the user leaves the home and returns to the home (session), the number of sessions is three.

Further, the predetermined time range may be “a time period in which one day is divided”, “one week”, “one month”, or “seasonal unit”. In the predetermined time range, a plurality of sessions occur for the same user Uk.
pair (i, j, Uk) = Σ _Sn pair (i, j, Uk, Sn)
That is, it is possible to estimate the distance between places where there is a large amount of potential movement within a predetermined time range.

For example, when the predetermined time range is set to one month, the number of sessions is different for each user.
User U1-> number of sessions = 30 (Sn (n = 1 to 30))
User U2-> number of sessions = 40 times (Sn (n = 1 to 40))
User U3-> number of sessions = 42 (Sn (n = 1 to 42))

  As another embodiment, the process of the second stay location pair selection unit 106 is executed before the process of the first stay location pair selection unit 105 or the process of the co-occurrence degree giving unit 104. It can also be configured.

  As described above in detail, according to the program, apparatus, and method of the present invention, the necessity of two-way transportation between the places of stay is estimated based on the time-series position information of a plurality of mobile terminals. can do. In particular, it is possible to consider the installation of two-way transportation (eg buses, rental bicycles, rental cars) that can offload the overall movement of people between places where there is a lot of potential movement. .

  Various changes, modifications, and omissions of the above-described various embodiments of the present invention can be easily made by those skilled in the art. The above description is merely an example, and is not intended to be restrictive. The invention is limited only as defined in the following claims and the equivalents thereto.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Estimating apparatus 10 Stay location determination part 101 Stay place estimation part 102 Stay place group division part 103 Stay place pair extraction part 104 Co-occurrence degree grant part 105 1st stay place pair selection part 106 2nd stay place pair selection part DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 11 Movement speed calculation part 120 Movement speed range setting part 12 Terminal number counting part 13 Two-way transportation estimation part 2 Portable terminal

Claims (9)

A program that causes a computer to function based on time-series position information of a plurality of mobile terminals so as to estimate the need for two-way transportation between the places of stay,
A moving speed range setting means for setting a moving speed range;
A moving speed calculating means for calculating a moving speed and a traveling direction between the first place of stay and the second place of stay for each portable terminal;
A mobile terminal having a moving speed included in the moving speed range is selected, the first number of travel direction terminals traveling from the first place of stay to the second place of stay, and the first place of stay from the second place of stay. A terminal number counting means for counting the number of second traveling direction terminals traveling to
Two-way transportation estimation for estimating the necessity of two-way transportation is high when the ratio between the number of first traveling direction terminals and the second number of traveling direction terminals is within a predetermined range between the places of stay A program that causes a computer to function as means. The moving speed range setting means sets a moving speed range for each moving body that moves between the first stay place and the second stay place,
The terminal number counting means counts the total number of mobile terminals having a moving speed included in the moving speed range for each moving body, and counts the first traveling direction terminal number and the second traveling direction terminal number. The program according to claim 1, wherein the computer is caused to function. The moving speed range setting means sets a moving speed range for each moving body that moves between the first stay place and the second stay place,
The terminal number counting means includes
For each moving body, select a mobile terminal with a moving speed included in the moving speed range,
For each moving body, generate an approximate movement trajectory between the first place of stay and the second place of stay from the time-series position information of the plurality of selected mobile terminals,
Selecting the moving body of the movement locus closest to the shortest line segment connecting the first place of stay and the second place of stay;
The computer program according to claim 1, wherein the computer is caused to function to count the first traveling direction terminal number and the second traveling direction terminal number for the selected moving body. For each portable terminal, a stay location estimating means for determining a stay status from time-series location information and estimating the stay status location information as a stay location;
For each mobile terminal, a stay location grouping means for classifying a group of stay locations on a movement trajectory that has moved between predetermined stay locations as one session;
For each mobile terminal, a stay location pair extracting means for extracting all combinations of stay location pairs generated in the same session,
Co-occurrence degree giving means for giving a co-occurrence degree based on the number of appearances of stay place pairs or stay places in all mobile terminal sessions, for each stay place pair;
First stay place pair selection means for selecting only stay place pairs in which the co-occurrence degree is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold;
The computer is further functioned as a second stay place pair selection means for selecting only stay place pairs that do not continuously transition in time series,
4. The need for a two-way transportation system that travels between places of stay with a large amount of potential movement selected by the second place of stay pair selection means is estimated. 5. The listed program. The co-occurrence degree giving means is
For each mobile device, the number of appearances = 1 for the stay location pair that appeared in the same session,
The program according to claim 4, wherein the computer is caused to function as a co-occurrence degree of the sum of the number of appearances of the stay destination pairs in the sessions of all the mobile terminals ΣU. The co-occurrence degree giving means is
Characterized in that the computer functions so as to give a numerical value based on multiplication of the number of appearances of the first place of stay and the number of appearances of the second place of stay in the sessions of all mobile terminals ΣU as the co-occurrence degree. The program according to claim 4. 7. The stay location estimation means extracts a stay for a predetermined time or more in time-series position information, and causes the computer to function so as to estimate the stay position as a stay location. The program according to item 1. A device that estimates the necessity of a two-way transportation system that travels between places of stay based on time-series position information of a plurality of mobile terminals,
A moving speed range setting means for setting a moving speed range;
A moving speed calculating means for calculating a moving speed and a traveling direction between the first place of stay and the second place of stay for each portable terminal;
A mobile terminal having a moving speed included in the moving speed range is selected, the first number of travel direction terminals traveling from the first place of stay to the second place of stay, and the first place of stay from the second place of stay. A terminal number counting means for counting the number of second traveling direction terminals traveling to
Two-way transportation estimation for estimating the necessity of two-way transportation is high when the ratio between the number of first traveling direction terminals and the second number of traveling direction terminals is within a predetermined range between the places of stay Means. An estimation method for an apparatus that estimates the necessity of a two-way transportation system that travels between places of stay based on time-series position information of a plurality of mobile terminals,
The device is
The moving speed range is set,
For each mobile terminal, a first step of calculating a moving speed and a traveling direction between the first place of stay and the second place of stay;
A mobile terminal having a moving speed included in the moving speed range is selected, the first number of travel direction terminals traveling from the first place of stay to the second place of stay, and the first place of stay from the second place of stay. A second step of counting the number of second traveling direction terminals traveling to
A third step of estimating that there is a high need for two-way transportation when the ratio between the number of first traveling direction terminals and the second number of traveling direction terminals is within a predetermined range between the places of stay; The method of estimating the apparatus characterized by performing this.

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