JP6543153B2 - Program and operation arrangement result analysis support device - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to an operation organization result analysis device and the like that support analysis of a result of operation organization.

  On the railway, when the train operation is disturbed due to an accident, a failure, a disaster or the like, operation reorganization is performed to correct or change the train schedule in order to return to normal operation. The operation-organized schedule is called the operation control plan.

  However, at the stage of implementing the operation arrangement based on the prepared operation arrangement plan, an "unexpected event" may occur, and the train arrangement may not be implemented as the operation arrangement plan, and a further train delay may occur. . For train delay due to an unexpected event, for example, (1) Crew member notification delay due to the notification of the contents of the operation adjustment to the crew taking time, (2) The course of the train when performing track control of a certain train Train control delay due to not knowing the delay of another train that interfered with the (3) Crew contact delay due to the fact that the content of the drive arrangement could not be communicated to the crew because the radio was busy (( 4) Delay due to increased passenger arrival and departure time due to stoppage or delay of the preceding train, and (5) for waiting for a home vacancy due to stop signal at level crossing and increase of arrival time of preceding train There is a delay due to a temporary stop between stations, (6) a delay due to slow driving to ensure safety because weather observation values such as rainfall exceed regulation values, and so on.

  In order to avoid train delays due to unexpected events and create a better operation control plan, it is first necessary to analyze which sections of the operation control plan have been delayed by what unexpected events. is there. As a technology for supporting the analysis of the results of the operation arrangement, for example, in Patent Document 1, there are provided a plan diagram, an actual diagram when the train is operated according to the operation arrangement with respect to the schedule diagram, and each station in the actual diagram. As a result of performing simulation processing on the assumption that a predetermined train operation condition is maintained while maintaining the arrival order of trains, that is, a technique for superimposing and displaying various types of diamonds such as predicted diamonds obtained by simulation history is disclosed. According to this technology, it is possible to support extraction of a delay point and analysis of an unexpected event that is the cause, by comparing the predicted time with the actual time, for example.

JP, 2006-159998, A

  However, the technique of Patent Document 1 described above only displays a diamond in a superimposed manner. Therefore, extraction of the delay point and analysis of the unexpected event that caused it were left to human judgment and spent a lot of time. Specifically, when a train delay occurs at a certain station, the subsequent delays also occur for each subsequent station and subsequent trains. That is, the train delay caused by an unexpected event includes a delay caused directly by the unexpected event and a delay indirectly caused by another train's delay. Performance diamonds are time consuming to analyze because these intricate and complicated delays are integrated. In particular, in the case of a schedule with a high service density, the number of train delay points becomes enormous, and the analysis work of unexpected delay becomes difficult.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances, and an object thereof is to provide a support technology for reducing an analysis operation of an unexpected event with respect to a performance diamond obtained by performing operation repositioning. It is.

A first invention for solving the above-mentioned problems is
A program (for example, a program for causing a computer to execute support for performing analysis of the result of operation adjustment performed on a given plan diagram using a result diagram actually operating a train according to the operation arrangement) The operation rearranging result analysis support program 302) of FIG.
The forecasting time for the arrival event in the performance diagram is calculated using the previous diamond portion of the arrival event in the performance scenario and the time and minute information according to the corresponding arrival event in the plan diagram. Time calculation means (for example, predicted arrival time calculation unit 204 and predicted arrival time calculation unit 208 in FIG. 6);
When the predetermined delay condition, which is a condition for determining that the actual time of the corresponding arrival event in the performance diagram is excessively delayed from the predicted time, determines that the arrival event is an unforeseeable delay event Unexpected delay event judging means (for example, arrival delay judgment unit 206 and emission delay judgment unit 210 in FIG. 6);
Is a program for causing the computer to function.

Also, as another invention,
Operation arrangement result analysis support device (for example, executing the support for performing the result analysis of the operation arrangement performed for a given plan diagram using the result diagram actually operating the train according to the operation arrangement (for example, It is the operation rearranging result analysis support device 1) of FIG.
The forecasting time for the arrival event in the performance diagram is calculated using the previous diamond portion of the arrival event in the performance scenario and the time and minute information according to the corresponding arrival event in the plan diagram. Time calculation means;
When the predetermined delay condition, which is a condition for determining that the actual time of the corresponding arrival event in the performance diagram is excessively delayed from the predicted time, determines that the arrival event is an unforeseeable delay event Unexpected delay event judging means
You may comprise the driving | operation rearranging result analysis assistance apparatus provided with this.

  According to the first invention, etc., it is possible to extract a delay location that has been caused directly by an unexpected event from the actual result diagram obtained by carrying out the operation finish on the plan schedule, and it is possible to Can support results analysis. That is, for the arrival event in the performance diagram, the predicted time when expected in the operation readjustment is compared with the actual time to determine whether it is an unforeseeable delayed event in which a delay is caused by an unexpected event.

A second invention is a program according to the first invention,
The predicted time calculation means, when the arrival event is an occurrence event, uses information on an assumed stop time for the occurrence event and an operation time interval with a train immediately before the corresponding occurrence event, Calculate the predicted time of the event,
You may configure the program.

  According to the second aspect of the invention, the predicted time of the event is calculated using the estimated stopping time and the information on the operation time interval between the event and the immediately preceding train according to the event. As the assumed stopping time, there are, for example, the stopping time in the plan diagram, the standard stopping time determined in advance, the minimum stopping time determined in advance according to the train system, and the like.

A third invention is a program according to the first or second invention,
When the arrival event is an arrival event, the predicted time calculation means uses information on an estimated time between trains for the arrival event and information on arrival / arrival times between the corresponding train and the immediately preceding train of the arrival event, when the arrival event is an arrival event. Calculate the forecasted time of the arrival event
You may configure the program.

  According to the third aspect of the invention, the predicted time of the arrival event is calculated using the assumed inter-station travel time for the arrival event and the information on the arrival / arrival time between the arrival event and the immediately preceding train. Ru. As the assumed inter-station travel time, for example, the travel time (planned travel time) in the plan diagram, the standard travel time predetermined in advance, the minimum travel time predetermined in accordance with the train system, etc. is there.

A fourth invention is a program according to any one of the first to third inventions,
The unforeseen delay event judging means has means for variably setting the delay condition according to a station or a train relating to the incoming event.
You may configure the program.

  According to the fourth aspect of the present invention, the delay condition for determining the arrival event as an unexpected delay event can be variably set according to the station or train involved in the arrival event. For example, the delay condition threshold can be changed depending on whether the terminal station has a large number of passengers or not, the train at each station, etc., and the delay condition can be made strict or loose.

A fifth invention is a program according to any one of the first to fourth inventions,
Means for controlling display of the performance diamond on which the unexpected delay event is identified and displayed,
A program may be configured to further cause the computer to function.

  According to the fifth aspect of the present invention, it is possible to display a track record in which an unexpected delay event is identified and displayed. For this reason, the user can proceed with the analysis work load of unexpected events in an easily understandable manner.

Explanatory drawing of determination of the unexpected delay of a arrival event. Explanatory drawing of determination of the unexpected delay of a arrival event. Explanatory drawing of determination of the unforeseeable delay of an outbreak event. Explanatory drawing of determination of the unforeseeable delay of an outbreak event. Explanatory drawing of determination of the unexpected delay of arrival event. The functional block diagram of a driving | operation rearranging result analysis assistance apparatus. An example of a determination result display screen of unexpected delay. The flowchart of driving rearranging result analysis support processing. The continuation of the flowchart of FIG.

[principle]
(A) Overview In this embodiment, support for analysis of the result of operation arrangement for a given plan diagram is performed using a result diagram in which the train is actually operated according to the operation arrangement. Specifically, for each arrival event (arrival event and occurrence event) in the performance diagram, the predicted time predicted from the result of the operation adjustment is compared with the actual time in the performance diagram, and the predetermined delay condition is satisfied. Whether it is a train delay (unforeseen delay) caused by an unexpected event is determined based on whether or not it is. The forecasted time of arrival event keeps the arrival order of the train at each station in the performance diamond based on the previous diamond part of the arrival event in the performance diamond and the time and minute information pertaining to the event in the planning diamond And, it is calculated so as not to be earlier than the arrival time in the plan diagram.

(B) Arrival Event FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of the determination of an unexpected delay for an arrival event. FIG. 1 shows a train diagram in which two trains (one train and two trains) travel from the A station to the C station via the B station. FIG. 1 (a) is a plan diagram, and FIG. 1 (b) is an actual diagram obtained by performing the operation arrangement on the plan diagram of FIG. 1 (a). In the result diagram in Fig. 1 (b), one train is operating as planned, and two trains have a delay in traveling between Station B and Station C, and the arrival and departure of Station C is delayed. Is shown.

  The predicted time of the arrival event (estimated arrival time) is “between the previous station and the station concerned (the arrival station of the arrival event) which is the hour and minute information at the departure time of the previous station in the achievement diagram (actual departure time). It is assumed that it is the time which added the running time between stations of assumption of. Assumed station-to-station running time: (a) running time between the corresponding stations of the corresponding train in the plan diagram (planned running time) (b) standard running time between the stations (constant), (C) Any of the minimum travel times (constants) between the stations determined according to the train system can be used. In the present embodiment, assumed traveling time between stations is described as planned traveling time.

  However, in order to maintain the arrival and departure order of trains in the actual schedule, the predicted arrival time is better than the limited arrival time obtained by adding a predetermined departure and arrival interval to the departure time (actual departure time) of the train just before the station in the actual scenario. If it is early, the limited arrival time is taken as the estimated arrival time. Also, in order to prevent early arrival to the plan diagram, when the predicted arrival time is earlier than the time (planned arrival time) of the arrival event in the plan diagram, the planned arrival time is taken as the estimated arrival time.

  Then, the predicted arrival time of the arrival event and the actual arrival time are compared, and the arrival event is satisfied if the time difference between the predicted arrival time and the actual arrival time is a predetermined threshold α1 or more, which is a delay condition related to the arrival event. Is determined as "unexpected delay". The threshold value α1 can be set to, for example, several minutes to about several tens of minutes. It goes without saying that the threshold α1 may not be included and may exceed the threshold α1.

  For example, in FIG. 1, the predicted arrival time for arrival event 10 at which two trains arrive at station C is the planned travel time between station B and station C at time t2 at actual departure time t2 of station B which is the previous station. It becomes time t5 which added FIG. 1 (a)). This predicted arrival time t5 is later than the limited arrival time t4 in which the arrival / arrival time interval Δt2 is added to the actual departure time t3 of the C station of one train, and is not earlier than the planned arrival time t1. The time difference (= | t6-t5 |) between the predicted arrival time t5 of the arrival event 10 and the actual arrival time t6 is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold value α1, and the arrival event 10 is determined to be an unforeseeable delay.

  FIG. 2 is another determination example of the unexpected delay for the arrival event. FIG. 2 shows a train diagram in which two trains (three trains and four trains) travel from the A station to the C station via the B station. FIG. 2 (a) is a plan diagram, and FIG. 2 (b) is an actual diagram obtained by performing the operation arrangement on the plan diagram of FIG. 2 (a). In the performance diagram in Fig. 2 (b), it is shown that the departure of the three trains at station C, which is the preceding train, is delayed, and that the subsequent four trains arrive at station C at the same time. ing.

  In this case, the predicted arrival time for arrival event 12 in which four trains arrive at station C is time (restricted arrival time) t15 obtained by adding arrival time interval Δt4 to actual arrival time t13 of station C at three trains. That is, it is because time t14 which added planned travel time deltat3 of B station-C station to performance departure time t12 of B station of 4 trains is earlier than limit arrival time t15. The time difference (= | t16−t15 |) between the predicted arrival time t15 and the actual arrival time t16 for the arrival event 12 is smaller than the threshold value α1, and it is determined that the arrival event 12 is not an unexpected delay.

(C) Occurrence event FIG. 3 is a schematic view of the determination of an unexpected delay for an occurrence event. FIG. 3 shows a train diagram in which two trains (five trains and six trains) travel from the A station to the C station via the B station. FIG. 3 (a) is a plan diagram, and FIG. 3 (b) is an actual diagram obtained by performing the operation arrangement on the plan diagram of FIG. 3 (a). In the result diagram in Fig. 3 (b), 5 trains are operating according to the plan diagram, and 6 trains have a delay in the departure of station B, and the arrival of station C is delayed accordingly. It shows.

  The predicted time of the event (predicted time of arrival) is “at the same station as the hour / minute information at the arrival time (actual arrival time of the relevant train to the relevant station (the departure station of the relevant event) in It is assumed that “the time obtained by adding the estimated stopping time”. The estimated stopping time is (a) stopping time of the corresponding train at the corresponding station in the planned diagram (planned stopping time), (b) standard stopping time of the corresponding station, (c) train system It can be either of the minimum stop times of the station determined accordingly. In the present embodiment, the assumed stopping time will be described as the planned stopping time.

  However, in order to maintain the arrival order of trains in the actual schedule, the predicted departure time is better than the limited departure time obtained by adding a predetermined service interval to the departure time of the previous train (actual time) of the station in the actual schedule. If it is early, the limited departure time is taken as the predicted arrival time. In addition, in order to prevent the early departure to the plan diagram, when the predicted departure time is earlier than the time (planned departure time) of the event in the plan diagram, the planned departure time is set as the predicted departure time.

  Then, the predicted occurrence time of the occurrence event is compared with the actual occurrence time, and when the time difference between the predicted occurrence time and the actual occurrence time, which is a delay condition regarding the occurrence event, satisfies a predetermined threshold α2 or more, the occurrence event Is determined as "unexpected delay". The threshold value α2 can be set, for example, to several minutes to several tens of minutes. It goes without saying that the threshold α2 may not be included and may exceed the threshold α2.

  For example, in FIG. 3, the predicted departure time for the event 14 in which six trains leave station B is the planned arrival time t of station B at the actual arrival time t24 of six stations at station t24 (FIG. 3 (a)). It becomes time t25 which added (refer). This predicted departure time t25 is later than the limited departure time t23 obtained by adding the operation time interval Δt6 to the actual departure time t22 of the B station of 5 trains which is the immediately preceding train, and the planned departure time t21 (see FIG. 3A). ) Later. The time difference (= | t26−t25 |) between the predicted occurrence time t25 and the actual occurrence time t26 for the occurrence event 14 is equal to or greater than the threshold α2, and it is determined that the occurrence event 14 is an unexpected delay.

  FIG. 4 is another example of determination of unexpected delay for an incident event. FIG. 4 shows a train diagram in which two trains (7 trains and 8 trains) travel from the A station to the B station and the C station to the D station. In this train schedule, the departure order of the trains is reversed at the C station on the plan diagram, and the second train of eight trains is the first train, and the first train of seven trains is the second train. FIG. 4 (a) is a plan diagram, and FIG. 4 (b) is an actual diagram obtained by performing the operation arrangement on the plan diagram of FIG. 4 (a). In the result diagram in Fig. 4 (b), there is a delay in departure and arrival after 8 stations of station B, and it is shown that a delay has occurred in the departure of 7 trains at station C that changes the arrival order. There is.

  The forecasted departure time for the event 16 that departs from the C station of 7 trains is obtained by adding the operation time interval Δt8 to the actual departure time t34 of the C station of 8 trains that is the previous train to depart at the station (C station) It becomes time (limit departure time) t35. That is, the time t33 obtained by adding the planned stopping time Δt7 (refer to FIG. 4A) at the C station to the actual arrival time t32 of the C station of seven trains is earlier than the limited departure time t35. Then, it is determined that the time difference (= | t36−t35 |) between the predicted occurrence time t35 and the actual occurrence time t36 for the occurrence event 16 is smaller than the threshold value α2, and the occurrence event 16 is not an unexpected delay.

(D)
In this way, for each arrival event in the performance diagram, it is determined whether or not it is an unforeseen delay by comparing the performance time with the prediction time. By calculating the predicted time based on the actual time, it is possible to determine only the train delay that is directly caused by the unexpected event among the train delays that occur in a chain by the unexpected event as the unexpected delay. .

  FIG. 5 is an example of the determination of an unexpected delay for an incoming event. In FIG. 5, two trains (9 trains, 10 trains) show trains going from the A station to the B station and the C station to the D station. FIG. 5 (a) is a plan diagram, and FIG. 5 (b) is a performance diagram. In the plan diagram shown in FIG. 5 (a), as in FIG. 4, the departure order of the trains is reversed at station C, and the 10 trains, which are the last arrivals, are ahead of the 9 trains that were the first arrival. There is. However, in the actual schedule shown in Fig. 5 (b), although nine trains operated as planned, there were delays in the arrival of 10 trains to station B, and as a result, overtaking of the train at station C was It was not implemented. In other words, the arrival order of trains at station C and after is different between the planned diagram and the actual diagram.

  In this case, the predicted arrival time for arrival event 18 arriving at station B at 10 trains is the planned travel time Δt9 between stations A and B at the actual departure time t43 of station A at 10 trains (see FIG. It becomes time t44 which added). Then, the predicted arrival time t44 is compared with the actual arrival time t45 of the B station of 10 trains, and it is determined to be an unforeseeable delay.

  In addition, the predicted departure time for the occurrence event 20 that leaves 10 stations of station B adds the planned stopping time of station B to time t45 (see FIG. 5 (a)) to the actual arrival time t45 of station 10 of 10 stations. It becomes time t46 which was done. According to the actual result diagram, the predicted start time t46 and the actual start time t47 are the same time. Therefore, as a result of comparing the predicted emission time t46 and the actual emission time t47, it is determined that the delay is not unexpected. Furthermore, for each of the arrival events 22, 24 and 26 after the C station of 10 trains, similarly, the actual time and the predicted time are compared, and it is determined that no unexpected delay has occurred.

[Function configuration]
FIG. 6 is a functional block diagram of the operation organization result analysis support device 1. According to FIG. 6, the operation organization result analysis support device 1 includes an operation input unit 102, a display unit 104, an audio output unit 106, a communication unit 108, a processing unit 200, and a storage unit 300. Computer is a kind of computer.

  The operation input unit 102 is an input device realized by, for example, a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, various switches, and the like, and outputs an operation signal according to an operation input to the processing unit 200. The display unit 104 is a display device realized by, for example, a liquid crystal display or an organic EL display, and performs various displays based on a display signal from the processing unit 200. The audio output unit 106 is an audio output device realized by, for example, a speaker, and performs various audio outputs based on the audio signal from the processing unit 200. The communication unit 108 is a communication device realized by, for example, a wireless communication module, a router, a modem, a jack of a communication cable for wired communication, a control circuit, or the like, and performs data communication with an external device.

  The processing unit 200 is realized by an arithmetic device such as a CPU, for example, and based on a program or data stored in the storage unit 300, input data from the operation input unit 102 or the communication unit 108, etc. Command and data transfer to each of the components that make up the system, to control the operation organization result analysis support device 1 in an integrated manner. Further, the processing unit 200 includes an arrival order determination unit 202, a predicted arrival time calculation unit 204, an arrival delay determination unit 206, a predicted arrival time calculation unit 208, an occurrence delay determination unit 210, and a determination result display control unit. 212, and by executing the operation organization result analysis support processing (see FIGS. 8 and 9) according to the operation organization result analysis support program 302, the operation organization performed for a given plan diagram Support for the analysis of the results of is based on the performance schedule obtained by the implementation of the operation arrangement. Here, the plan diagram is stored in the storage unit 300 as the plan diagram data 304, and the actual diagram is stored as the actual diagram data 306.

  The arrival order determination unit 202 determines the arrival order of the trains at each station based on the result schedule. The determined arrival order is stored as arrival order data 312.

  The predicted arrival time calculation unit 204 calculates a predicted arrival time for the arrival event in the actual time table. That is, at the departure time (actual departure time) of the previous station (the station that stops immediately before the station of the arrival event) in the performance diagram, the time between trains from the corresponding previous station to the relevant station in the plan diagram The time obtained by adding (planned travel time) is taken as the predicted arrival time. Then, if the predicted arrival time is earlier than the limited arrival time obtained by adding a predetermined arrival / arrival interval to the departure time (actual departure time) of the train immediately before the relevant station in the performance diamond, the predicted arrival time Change to the arrival time limit. In addition, when the predicted arrival time is earlier than the arrival time (planned arrival time) of the station of the train concerned in the plan diagram, the predicted arrival time is changed to the planned arrival time. The immediately preceding train follows the arrival order determined by the arrival order determination unit 202. In addition, the arrival and departure time intervals are stored as operating condition data 308. Also, the calculated predicted arrival time is stored as predicted time data 314.

  The arrival delay determination unit 206 determines whether or not the arrival event in the record time is an unexpected delay. That is, for the arrival event, the time difference between the arrival time (actual arrival time) in the performance diamond and the predicted arrival time calculated by the predicted arrival time calculation unit 204 is calculated, and if this time difference is equal to or more than a predetermined threshold value α1, the unforeseeable delay If it is less than the threshold value α1, it is determined that the delay is not unexpected. The predetermined threshold α1 is stored as threshold data 310. In addition, the determination result is stored as unexpected delay determination result data 316.

  The predicted arrival time calculation unit 208 calculates the predicted arrival time for the occurrence event in the actual schedule. That is, the time obtained by adding the stopping time (planned stopping time) of the corresponding station in the plan diagram to the arrival time (actual arrival time) of the station (the station of the event) in the plan It is assumed to be the predicted departure time. In addition, when the predicted departure time is earlier than the limited departure time obtained by adding a predetermined operation time interval to the departure time (actual departure time) of the immediately preceding train of the station in the performance diagram, the predicted departure time is Change to the limited departure time. Further, if the predicted departure time is earlier than the departure time (planned departure time) of the relevant station of the relevant train in the plan diagram, the predicted departure time is changed to this planned departure time. The immediately preceding train follows the arrival order determined by the arrival order determination unit 202. Further, the predetermined operation time interval is stored as operation condition data 308. In addition, the calculated predicted transmission time is stored as predicted time data 314.

  The occurrence delay determination unit 210 determines whether or not the occurrence event in the record is an unexpected delay. That is, for the occurrence event, the time difference between the time of departure (resulting time in actual results schedule) and the predicted time of departure calculated by the predicted time of departure calculation unit 208 is calculated, and this time difference is greater than or equal to a predetermined threshold value α2. If it is less than the threshold value α2, it is determined that the delay is not unexpected. The predetermined threshold value α2 is stored as threshold data 310. In addition, the determination result is stored as unexpected delay determination result data 316.

  The determination result display control unit 212 performs display control of the determination result of the unexpected delay for the arrival event by the arrival delay determination unit 206 and the arrival delay determination unit 210. Specifically, the display unit 104 displays a determination result display screen in which each arrival event is identified and displayed in accordance with the determination result of the unforeseen delay on the performance diagram.

  FIG. 7 is an example of the determination result display screen. According to FIG. 7, on the determination result display screen W1, the plan diagram 30 and the result diagram 32 obtained by performing the operation arrangement on the plan diagram 30 are displayed in a superimposed manner. At the same time, among the arrival events of the performance diagram 32, the arrival events delayed as compared with the plan diagram are displayed by the identification displays 34 and 36 according to whether or not they are unforeseeable delays. In the determination result display screen, the plan diagram 30 can be made non-display, and it can be switched so as to display the result diagram 32 and the identification display 34, 36.

  The storage unit 300 stores programs and data for realizing various functions for the processing unit 200 to comprehensively control the operation organization result analysis support device 1, and is used as a work area of the processing unit 200. The calculation results executed by the unit 200 according to various programs, and input data from the operation input unit 102 and the communication unit 108 are temporarily stored. In addition, in the storage unit 300, the operation organization result analysis support program 302, the plan diagram data 304, the performance diagram data 306, the operation condition data 308, the threshold data 310, the arrival order data 312, the predicted time data 314 and unexpected delay judgment result data 316 are stored.

  Of these data, the operating condition data 308 and the threshold data 310 are data set in advance. The operating condition data 308 stores various temporal restrictions. For example, information on arrival and departure times to be secured between the arrival of a train at a certain station and the arrival of the train at the same station, and information on the timing of arrivals and departures at the same station For each station, time-minute information that is a restriction on the arrival and departure of trains before and after the station is stored, such as information on the operation time interval to be secured before leaving the station.

[Flow of processing]
8 and 9 are flowcharts illustrating the flow of the operation organization result analysis support process. This processing is realized by the processing unit 200 executing the operation organization result analysis support program 302.

  According to FIG. 8, first, the arrival and arrival order determination unit 202 determines the arrival and departure order of trains at each station based on the result schedule (step S1). Next, the processing unit 200 extracts an arrival event to be an object of determination of an unexpected delay from the performance record (step S3). For example, all the arrival events in the actual result diagram may be determined, or only the delayed arrival events may be determined as compared with the plan diagram. Alternatively, an arrival event of a specific time range or traveling section may be determined as a target of determination according to the user's selection operation input.

  Then, the processing of loop A is performed on each of the extracted arrival events. In the loop A, if the target arrival event is a arrival event (step S5: YES), the predicted arrival time calculation unit 204 determines that the actual train departure time of the train at the previous station (the station immediately before the station related to the target arrival event). The predicted arrival time of the target arrival event is calculated by adding the planned travel time between the previous station and the station (an example of the assumed inter-station travel time) (step S7). Further, a predetermined arrival / departure time is added to the actual departure time of the train just before the station (the station pertaining to the target arrival event) to calculate the restricted arrival time (step S9). Then, the predicted arrival time is compared with the restricted arrival time, and if the predicted arrival time is earlier than the restricted arrival time (step S11: NO), the predicted arrival time is updated to the restricted arrival time (step S13). Also, the predicted arrival time is compared with the planned arrival time of the target arrival event, and if the predicted arrival time is earlier than the planned arrival time (step S15: NO), the predicted arrival time is changed to the planned arrival time (step S15) S17).

  Subsequently, the arrival delay determination unit 206 calculates a time difference between the predicted arrival time and the actual arrival time of the target arrival event (step S19). Then, if this time difference is equal to or more than the predetermined threshold value α1 (step S21: YES), it is determined that the target arrival event is an unexpected delay (step S23), and if less than the threshold value α1 (step S21: NO), it is not an unexpected delay. It is determined that (step S25).

  On the other hand, if the target arrival event is an occurrence event (step S5: NO), the predicted arrival time calculation unit 208 calculates the planned stop time of the target occurrence event at the actual arrival time of the train of the station An example of the minute is added to calculate the estimated time of arrival (step S27). In addition, the limited departure time is calculated by adding a predetermined operation time interval to the actual departure time of the train just before the station (step S29). Then, the predicted emission time is compared with the restricted emission time, and if the predicted emission time is earlier than the restricted emission time (step S31: NO), the predicted emission time is changed to the restricted emission time (step S33). Also, the predicted departure time is compared with the planned departure time of the target occurrence event, and if the predicted departure time is earlier than the planned departure time (step S35: NO), the predicted departure time is updated to the planned departure time (step S35) Step S37).

  Subsequently, the occurrence delay determination unit 210 calculates a time difference between the predicted occurrence time and the actual occurrence time of the target occurrence event (step S39). Then, if the calculated time difference is equal to or more than the predetermined threshold value α2 (step S41: YES), the target occurrence event is determined to be an unforeseen delay (step S43), and if less than the threshold value α2 (step S41: NO) It is determined that it is not a delay (step S45). Loop A is performed this way.

  When processing of loop A for all arrival events extracted in step S3 is performed, the determination result display control unit 212 determines, based on the determination result of the unforeseen delay for each of the arrival events, the result diamond. A display unit 104 displays a determination result display screen on which the incoming events are identified and displayed according to the determination result of the unexpected delay (step S47). When the above process is performed, the operation organization result analysis support process ends.

[Function effect]
As described above, according to the present embodiment, it is possible to extract a delay point that is directly caused by an unexpected event, with respect to the actual performance diamond obtained by carrying out the operation rearranging on the plan timing, Support the analysis of unexpected events and reduce the analysis work of unexpected events. That is, for each arrival event in the result diagram, the predicted time and actual time predicted in the operation arrangement are compared, and when the time is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold, the arrival event is determined to be an unexpected delay Do. The predicted time of the arrival event is the time when the actual travel time between the previous station and the station is added to the actual departure time of the previous station of the train, and the predicted time of the occurrence event is the station of the relevant train The planned arrival time of the station is added to the actual arrival time of.

[Modification]
Note that the embodiments to which the present invention can be applied are not limited to the above-described embodiments, and can be appropriately modified without departing from the spirit of the present invention.

(A) Change of Threshold Value For example, the threshold values α1 and α2 which are delay conditions when determining an unexpected delay for an arrival event may be changed according to each station or each train. For example, the thresholds α1 and α2 are variably set according to the type of train, such as whether the terminal is a terminal station with a large number of passengers or not, and whether the train is a stop at each station. Further, the thresholds α1 and α2 may be set variably according to the elapsed time from the start time of the operation adjustment.

  Further, the thresholds α1 and α2 may be set variably according to whether the number of portions determined to be unforeseeable delays is larger or smaller than expected. For example, if the ratio of the number of arrival events determined to be unforeseeable delay to the number of arrival events to be determined in step S3 is higher than a predetermined upper limit, the threshold values α1 and α2 are relaxed (value And the delay condition is relaxed), and if lower than a predetermined lower limit value, the thresholds α1 and α2 are made strict (values are made smaller and delay conditions are made strict). As a result, there are not too many places, too few places, and too few places which are determined to be unforeseen delays, and estimations can be made in an appropriate range, and the analysis work of unexpected events can be efficiently reduced.

1 operation arrangement result analysis support device 102 operation input unit 104 display unit 106 voice output unit 108 communication unit 200 processing unit 202 arrival order determination unit 204 predicted arrival time calculation unit 206 arrival delay determination unit 208 predicted departure time Calculation unit 210 delay determination unit, 212 determination result display control unit 300 storage unit 302 operation organizing result analysis support program 304 plan diagram data, 306 actual diagram data 308 operation condition data, 310 threshold data 312 arrival order data, 314 predicted time Data 316 Unexpected delay judgment result data

Claims (6)

The computer, using a given planning diamonds, and a given actual diamond actually train by operation adjustment made to the plan diamonds are diamonds after being operated, the, by the operation adjustment It is a program to support analysis of the above-mentioned performance schedule ,
Extraction means for extracting an arrival event to be a target of determination as to whether or not it is an unforeseen delay event from the result diagram,
The predicted time for the extracted arrival event is calculated using the previous diamond portion of the arrival event in the performance diamond and the time and minute information related to the corresponding arrival event in the plan diagram. Calculation means,
Regarding the extracted arrival event, it is a condition for determining that the actual time of the corresponding arrival event in the actual schedule is excessively delayed from the predicted time calculated by the predicted time calculation means Means for determining an unforeseen delayed event that determines the incoming event as an unforeseen delayed event if the delay condition of
As a program to make the computer work. The predicted time calculation means
When the extracted arrival event is an occurrence event,
(A) calculating primarily the time obtained by adding the estimated stopping time at the same station to the arrival time of the train pertaining to the event to the station in the actual schedule as the predicted time of the event;
(B) When the forecasted time primarily calculated in (a) is earlier than the limited departure time obtained by adding a predetermined service time interval to the departure time of the immediately preceding train in the actual result diagram from the station pertaining to the event Updating the limited occurrence time as a predicted time of the occurrence event;
To calculate the predicted time of the event
The program according to claim 1. The predicted time calculation means
When the extracted arrival event is a arrival event,
(1) The arrival time of the arrival event is calculated by adding the estimated inter-station travel time between the departure station and the station concerned to the arrival time of the arrival station to the departure time of the arrival station of the train in the performance diagram of the arrival event Primary calculation as predicted time ,
(2) When the predicted time primarily calculated in the above (1) is earlier than the limited arrival time obtained by adding a predetermined arrival / arrival interval to the departure time of the immediately preceding train in the actual results diamond to the arrival station Updating the limited arrival time as the predicted time of the arrival event;
To calculate the forecasted time of the arrival event
The program according to claim 1 or 2. The unforeseen delay event judging means has means for variably setting the delay condition according to a station or a train relating to the extracted arrival event.
The program according to any one of claims 1 to 3. Means for controlling display of the performance diamond on which the unexpected delay event is identified and displayed,
The program according to any one of claims 1 to 4, further causing the computer to function as Using a given planning diamonds, and a given actual diamond actually train by operation adjustment made to the plan diamonds are diamonds after being operated, wherein the actual diamond by the operation adjustment a that helps the analysis operation organize the results analysis support apparatus,
Extraction means for extracting an arrival event to be a target of determination as to whether or not it is an unforeseen delay event from the above-mentioned performance diagram;
The predicted time for the arrival event in the extracted performance diagram is obtained using the previous diamond portion of the arrival event in the performance scenario and the time and minute information related to the corresponding arrival event in the plan diagram. Forecasting time calculating means to calculate;
Regarding the extracted arrival event, it is a condition for determining that the actual time of the corresponding arrival event in the actual schedule is excessively delayed from the predicted time calculated by the predicted time calculation means Means for judging an unforeseen delay event which determines the incoming event as an unforeseen delay event when the delay condition is satisfied;
Operation arrangement result analysis support device equipped with.

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