JP2015003625A - Program and train timetable evaluation support device - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To know delay propagation state and source of occurrence, frequency and degree of delay, and the like, for supporting correction of train timetable which settles operation delay.SOLUTION: By repeating train operation estimation which uses a train timetable that is to be evaluated and passenger occurrence probability data that probabilistically defines occurrence of passenger, M pieces, which is a predetermined number, of performance timetable is generated. By staggering one each time in the order of generation, a performance timetable set consisting of N pieces of performance timetables is generated. For each of the performance timetable set, an average delay hour/minute of arrival/departure time of each train at each station is calculated as statistics of delay hour/minute. Line pieces constituting a train timetable are, in the order of generation, switched at a predetermined time interval for display (frame feeding display) in a display mode according to a corresponding average delay hour/minute.

Description

  The present invention relates to a train schedule evaluation support device that supports aptitude evaluation for a train schedule delay.

  In order to evaluate and verify a train schedule, a method using a train operation simulation that simulates a train operation according to the train schedule is known. By repeating the evaluation of the train schedule based on the result of the train operation simulation and the correction of the train schedule, a train schedule with a high evaluation can be finally obtained. As an evaluation standard for train schedules, for example, there is known a method of selecting a train schedule having the lowest evaluation value, which is the sum of passenger costs that are invalid values for all passengers and operation costs of railway operators ( Patent Document 1).

JP 2007-237948 A

  In metropolitan railways, many trains are operated at short train intervals, and the demand for transportation is close to the limit of the transport capacity that can be supplied, so delays due to many customers frequently occur. For this reason, it is necessary to modify the train schedule to reduce the delay. However, it was difficult to determine which part of the train diagram should be corrected with priority. That is, since the train interval is short, the propagation of delay occurs such that the delay of one train affects the delay of another train. For such propagation of delay, it is effective to preferentially eliminate the source of the delay, but it was impossible to grasp which part of the train diagram the source of the delay. In addition, the frequency of delays such as whether it is a delay that occurs on a daily basis or a delay that occurs unexpectedly under certain conditions, and the degree of delay such as the time of delay vary, but the frequency and degree of such delay I could not figure out.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances, and an object of the present invention is to propose a method for providing effective support in evaluating the suitability of a train diagram for operation delay. Specifically, for example, it is possible to grasp the state of propagation of the delay, the generation source thereof, the frequency and degree of delay, and the like.

The first invention for solving the above-described problems is
A program (for example, the train diagram evaluation support program 310 in FIG. 5) for causing a computer to support aptitude evaluation for a delay in operation of a given train diagram,
Passenger generating means (for example, generated passenger setting unit 210 in FIG. 5) for generating a virtual passenger using the occurrence probability distribution of passengers at each station at each time,
Simulation means (for example, a performance diagram creation unit 220 in FIG. 5) that generates a performance diagram by performing a train operation simulation that applies the passenger generated by the passenger generation device to the train diagram.
For each of M (M ≧ 3) track diagrams obtained by repeatedly functioning the passenger generating means and the simulation means, a delay time is calculated for each fragment line obtained by dividing the train line of each train into fragments. Delay time calculation means (for example, delay time calculation unit 230 in FIG. 5),
Statistical means (for example, a delay time statistics unit 250 in FIG. 5) for statistically calculating the delay time for each fragment line for each of the result diamond sets obtained by combining N of the result diamonds (M> N ≧ 2),
Based on the statistical results of the statistical means, the display control means (for example, FIG. 5) performs control to display the train diagram in which each fragment streak is written in a form corresponding to the corresponding statistical result for each of the actual diagram sets 5 statistical result display control unit 260),
As a program for causing the computer to function.

As another invention,
A train diagram evaluation support device (for example, the train diagram evaluation support device 1 of FIG. 5) for supporting the suitability evaluation for the operation delay of a given train diagram,
Passenger generating means for generating virtual passengers using the probability distribution of passengers at each station at each time,
Simulation means for generating a performance diagram by performing a train operation simulation applying the passenger generated by the passenger generation means for the train diagram,
For each of M (M ≧ 3) track diagrams obtained by repeatedly functioning the passenger generating means and the simulation means, a delay time is calculated for each fragment line obtained by dividing the train line of each train into fragments. Delay time calculation means,
Statistical means for statistically calculating the delay time for each fragment line for each of the result diamond sets obtained by combining N of the result diamonds (M> N ≧ 2);
Based on the statistical results of the statistical means, display control means for performing control to display the train diagram in a form corresponding to the statistical results corresponding to each fragment line, frame by frame for each of the actual diamond sets;
A train schedule evaluation support apparatus including the above may be configured.

  According to the first invention and the like, the delay time for each fragment line is calculated for each of M (M ≧ 3) actual schedules generated by performing a train operation simulation on a given train schedule. The And, for each timetable group that combines N number of timetables, the delay time for each fragment line is statistically analyzed, and the train timeline in which each fragment line is indicated in a form corresponding to the corresponding statistical result is Frame-by-frame display is displayed.

  Since the generated passengers applied in the train operation simulation are generated probabilistically using the generation probability distribution, the generated M actual schedules are different from each other. That is, the statistical result for the delay time for each record diamond set is also different. Thereby, it becomes easy to grasp the state of change in the operation delay in each case where the generation situation of passengers is different.

  For example, it is possible to grasp the frequency of occurrence of delay in the diamond portion by observing the change in frame advance display for the diamond portion where the train diamond exists. Further, since the fragment streaks are displayed in a form corresponding to the statistical result, the degree of delay can be grasped. In addition, as a result of observing changes in the frame advance display, if delays occur in almost the same time in different parts of the train schedule, it is assumed that there is some causal relationship between the delays in these parts. it can. The user can use these grasped items to correct the train schedule to eliminate the delay. That is, according to 1st invention etc., when a user evaluates the suitability of the train schedule with respect to operation delay, it can provide effective support.

As a second invention, there is provided a program according to the first invention,
The computer is further functioned as a selection means (for example, the performance diagram group creation unit 240 in FIG. 5) for sequentially selecting the performance diagram group so that the performance diamond groups partially overlap with each other before and after the selection.
The display control means causes the frame advance display to be performed according to the selection order of the selection means.
A program may be configured.

  According to the second aspect of the present invention, the result diamond groups are sequentially selected so that the result diamond groups partially overlap with each other before and after the selection, and the frame advance display is performed along the selection order of the result diamonds. As a result, when paying attention to the part of the train with a diamond, the user sees a change in the form of the fragment line notation, so that it is a high frequency delay that occurs daily or a low frequency that suddenly occurs The frequency of occurrence such as delay can be estimated.

A third invention is a program according to the first or second invention,
The delay time calculation means calculates the delay time for each fragment line by calculating the arrival delay time and departure delay time of each station of each train,
A program may be configured.

  According to the third aspect of the present invention, the arrival delay time and departure delay time at each station of each train are calculated as the delay time for each fragment line.

A fourth invention is a program according to any one of the first to third inventions,
The statistical means calculates a maximum delay time and an average delay time for each fragment line for each track record set,
The display control means performs display control by switching between a method of displaying each fragment line in a form corresponding to the maximum delay time and a method of displaying in a form corresponding to the average delay time.
A program may be configured.

  According to the fourth aspect of the invention, the maximum delay time and the average delay time are calculated as the statistics of the delay time for each fragment line of the record diagram set. Switching between the method that displays each fragment streak in a form corresponding to the corresponding maximum delay time and the method that displays it in a form corresponding to the average delay time, the train diagram can be sent frame by frame for each actual schedule set. Is displayed.

A fifth invention is a program according to any one of the first to fourth inventions,
M is set to 100 or more, the passenger generating means and the simulation means are repeatedly functioned 100 times or more,
For further causing the computer to function as means for setting N according to a user operation input,
A program may be configured.

  According to the fifth aspect of the invention, N is set in accordance with a user operation input.

Schematic diagram of train schedule evaluation support. Schematic diagram of train schedule evaluation support. Example of train diagram display based on statistical results. Explanatory drawing of the display form of the train diagram according to a statistical result. The functional block diagram of a train schedule evaluation assistance apparatus. The data structural example of passenger occurrence probability data. The data structural example of delay time minute data. Data structure example of statistical result data. The data structural example of statistical result display setting data. The flowchart of a train schedule evaluation assistance process. Explanatory drawing of the change of the average delay time according to delay occurrence frequency.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. However, the applicable embodiment of the present invention is not limited to this.

[Overview]
In the present embodiment, attention is paid to a train operation delay caused by a large number of passengers (multiple passengers), and the suitability evaluation for the train schedule is supported. FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of evaluation support for operation delay of a train diagram in this embodiment. First, a train schedule (planned schedule) 10 to be evaluated and passenger occurrence probability data 20 defining the generated passenger are given. Passenger occurrence probability data 20 is data that stochastically determines the occurrence of passengers in each time zone of each station. Specifically, the passenger occurrence probability data 20 follows a normal distribution, and the average value E of the number of passengers generated in the target time zone. And standard deviation σ. From this passenger generation probability data 20, the number of passengers generated in each time zone of each station is determined by probability calculation using the average value E and the standard deviation σ. That is, data corresponding to the generated passenger OD data is created. The passenger occurrence probability data 20 may be determined separately for each time zone of each station, or may be one common data.

  Next, a train schedule is created by performing a train operation simulation (train operation estimation) applying the determined number of generated passengers to the train diagram 10. A known method can be applied to the train operation estimation used here. For example, while advancing the virtual time, a virtual passenger with a target station is generated at each station, and according to the train schedule, the departure time at each station of each train based on the number of passengers and the departure time of the preceding train Whether the vehicle is delayed or not, and the time of departure delay is calculated to calculate the stop time, and between each station of each train based on the travel time of the preceding train and the predetermined minimum operation interval The operation of each train is estimated by repeatedly performing the process of calculating the running time of the train.

  Subsequently, the created actual schedule 30 is compared with the train schedule 10, and the arrival time and departure time at each station of each train are calculated and used as arrival delay time data 40.

  Thus, the train schedule estimation using the train diagram 10 and the passenger occurrence probability data 20 is repeatedly performed, and as shown in FIG. 2, a predetermined number M of actual schedules 30 (1) to 30 (M), The arrival / delay time data 40 (1) to 40 (M) corresponding to each is created. The actual schedules 30 (1) to 30 (M) are different because the number of generated passengers used for the train operation estimation is different. That is, the arrival / delay time data 40 (1) to 40 (M) corresponding to each of the record schedules 30 (1) to 30 (M) are also different.

  Then, a record diagram set 50 that is a set of a predetermined number N of record schedules 30 is generated from the M record schedules 30 (1) to 30 (M). At this time, the record diagram set 50 is generated so that a part of the record diagrams 30 included in the preceding and following record diagram sets 50 overlap. In the present embodiment, as shown in FIG. 2, for N actual diamonds 30 (m) (m = 1, 2,..., M), a sequence of N is sequentially shifted from m = 1 one by one. One result diamond 30 is selected as one result diamond set 50 (m). That is, the record schedules 30 (1) to 30 (N) are set as the record diagram set 50 (1), and the record diagrams 30 (2) to 30 (N + 1) are set as the record diagram set 50 (2). Then, the actual diamonds 30 (MN + 1) to 30 (M) are used as the actual diamonds 30 (MN + 1), and finally, “MN + 1” actual diamond groups 50 (m) are generated.

  Subsequently, statistical processing for the delay time is performed for each of these performance diagram sets 50. In this embodiment, an average value is calculated as statistical processing. That is, for each of the actual schedule sets 50, the average arrival delay at each station of each train and the delay time for each departure time of each actual schedule 30 included in the actual schedule set 50 are calculated, and the average arrival delay is calculated. The hour / minute data 60 is assumed.

  Then, the train schedules 10 are sequentially displayed at predetermined time intervals in the order of generation in a display form corresponding to the average arrival delay time / minute data 60 which is a statistical result of each of the record schedule sets 50. Hereinafter, this display is referred to as “frame advance display”.

  FIG. 3 is a display example of a statistical result for a performance diagram set. FIG. 3 shows two display examples of the train diagram 10 in a display form corresponding to the average departure delay time / minute data 60 of the actual diagram set 50. FIG. 3 (1) is a display example of a certain result diamond set 50 (m), and FIG. 3 (2) is a display example of the next result diamond set 50 (m + 1) in the generation order.

  As a display of the statistical result, a fragment line obtained by dividing each train line constituting the train diagram 10 between arrival and departure is displayed in a display form corresponding to the corresponding average delay time. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 4, each train streak is determined from an inter-station segment line 12 from an occurrence event at a certain station (departure station) to an arrival event at the next station (arrival station) and an arrival event at a certain station. It is divided into the segment line 14 between the arrival and departure until the event. The inter-station fragment line 12 is displayed in a display form corresponding to the average delay time of the arrival time at the end, and the inter-station fragment line 14 is displayed according to the average delay time of the departure time at the end. Display in the displayed form.

  FIG. 3 shows a case where the display form of the fragment stripe is the display color. That is, the size (numerical value range) of the average delay time is determined in advance for each of the display colors of a plurality of stages such as red, yellow, and blue, and each fragment stripe is displayed with a display color corresponding to the corresponding average delay time. indicate. The display form is not limited to this, and may be other forms such as line thickness, line type, and display color intensity. In FIG. 3, the display form is divided into three stages, but it may be more than this.

The record diagram set 50 (m) in FIG. 3A and the record diagram set 50 (m + 1) in FIG. 3B are record diagram sets in the order of generation. Accordingly, the actual diagram set 50 (m) and the actual diagram set 50 (m + 1) partially include a part of the actual diagram. In the present embodiment, as shown in FIG. 2, only one performance diagram is different, and the others are overlapped (common). With this point in mind, FIG. 3 (1) is compared with FIG. 3 (2).

  Then, there is a delay in both FIG. 3 (1) and FIG. 3 (2) between the B station and the C station of the 01 train and between the D station and the E station. FIG. 3 shows only two examples, but when the train diagram 10 is displayed frame-by-frame in a display form corresponding to the average arrival / delay time data 60 according to the generation order of the actual diagram set 50, the B train of the 01 train If there are many (or continuously) delays between stations C and between station D and station E, this indicates that frequent delays can occur between the stations of the train. It can be said.

  In addition, a large delay occurs between the A station and B station of the 01 train and between the B station and C station of the 03 train in FIG. 3 (2), but there is a delay in FIG. 3 (1). No (or small delay). It is a low frequency between the stations of the train that such a large delay difference suddenly occurs despite the fact that there is only one track record of different records. It can be said that a large delay can occur.

  In this way, it is possible to support the suitability evaluation for the operation delay of the train schedule. The user can observe the above-mentioned frame advance display, and can create and correct a train schedule having high suitability for the operation delay.

[Function configuration]
FIG. 5 is a functional configuration diagram of the train schedule evaluation support apparatus 1 of the present embodiment. As shown in FIG. 5, the train diagram evaluation support device 1 is a computer system configured to include an operation input unit 110, a display unit 120, a communication unit 130, a processing unit 200, and a storage unit 300. .

  The operation input unit 110 is an input device realized by, for example, a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, various switches, and the like, and outputs an operation signal corresponding to the operation input to the processing unit. The display unit 120 is a display device realized by an LCD or the like, for example, and performs display according to a display signal from the processing unit 200. The communication unit 130 is a communication device realized by, for example, a wireless communication module, a router, a modem, TA, a cable communication cable jack, a control circuit, and the like, and performs data communication with an external device.

  The processing unit 200 is an arithmetic device such as a CPU, for example. Based on a program and data stored in the storage unit 300, an operation signal from the operation input unit 110, and the like, the processing unit 200 is connected to each unit constituting the train diagram evaluation support device 1. Instructions and data transfer are performed, and overall control of the train schedule evaluation support apparatus 1 is performed. In addition, the processing unit 200 includes a generated passenger setting unit 210, an actual schedule creation unit 220, a delayed time calculation unit 230, an actual schedule set creation unit 240, a delayed time statistical unit 250, and a statistical result display control unit. 260, and executes a train schedule evaluation support process (see FIG. 10) according to the train schedule evaluation support program 310.

  The generated passenger setting unit 210 uses the passenger generation probability data 330 (passenger generation probability data 20 in FIG. 1) to probabilistically determine the number of passengers generated in each time zone at each station.

  FIG. 6 is a data configuration example of the passenger occurrence probability data 330. As shown in FIG. 6, the passenger occurrence probability data 330 is generated for each time zone, and stores the occurrence probability distribution of passengers in the time zone for each combination of departure station and destination station. The occurrence probability distribution of passengers is an average value E of the number of passengers generated and a standard deviation σ.

  The performance diagram creation unit 220 performs train operation estimation (train operation simulation) to which the generated passenger determined by the generated passenger setting unit 210 is applied to the train diagram (the train diagram 10 in FIG. 1). The result diagram 30) of FIG. 1 is created. The train diagram is stored in advance as train diagram data 320. In addition, the created performance diagrams are stored as performance diagram data 360 by assigning a performance diagram ID that is an identification number in the order of creation. In addition, the record diagram creation unit 220 repeatedly creates record records, and the total number M of record record creations is defined as statistical processing setting data 340.

  The delay time calculation unit 230 compares the actual schedule created by the actual schedule creation unit 220 with the train schedule (planned schedule), and calculates the delay time of arrival and departure times at each station of each train. The calculated delay time is stored as delay time data 370 (incoming delay time data 40 in FIG. 1).

  FIG. 7 is a data configuration example of delay time data. As shown in FIG. 7, the delay time / minute data 370 is generated for each actual schedule, and together with the corresponding actual schedule ID, for each train constituting the planned schedule, the delay time of arrival at each station (arrival delay time / minute) ) And the delay time (departure delay time) of the departure time.

  The record diagram creation unit 240 creates a record diagram set consisting of a predetermined number N (M> N> 1) record diagrams for the M record diagrams created by the record diagram creation unit 220. Specifically, as described with reference to FIG. 2, the M record schedules 30 (1) to 30 (M) are shifted one by one in the order of the record diagram ID corresponding to the generation order. However, the N consecutive diamonds 30 are created as a single diamond diagram 50. That is, (M−N + 1) number of actual diamond sets 50 are created. It should be noted that the number of result diamonds shifted is not limited to one, and the result diamond group may be created while shifting two by two.

  The data about the created actual diamond group 50 is assigned with an actual diamond group ID that is an identification number in the order of creation, and is stored as an actual diamond group data 380 in association with N actual diamond IDs included in the actual actual diamond group. Is done. Further, the statistical unit number N, which is the number of performance diamonds as one performance diamond group, is defined as statistical processing setting data 340.

  The delay time statistics unit 250 performs a statistical process on the delay time of each performance diagram included for each performance diagram set created by the performance diagram set creation unit 240. In this embodiment, as a statistical process, the average value for the delay time of each arrival time and departure time at each station of each train is calculated. The calculated average delay time is stored as statistical result data 390.

  FIG. 8 is a data configuration example of the statistical result data 390. As shown in FIG. 8, the statistical result data 390 is generated for each actual schedule group, and together with the corresponding actual diagram group ID, for each train constituting the train diagram, the average delay time of arrival time at each station, and Stores the average delay time of departure time.

  The statistical result display control unit 260 causes the display unit 120 to display a train diagram in a display form corresponding to the statistical result by the delay time / minute statistical unit 250. That is, for example, as shown in FIG. 3, for each of the actual diagram sets, each segment line constituting the train diagram is switched as a display form corresponding to the corresponding average delay time in the order of generation at a predetermined time interval. Display (frame advance display).

  Here, the correspondence relationship between the average delay time and the display form of the fragment streaks is defined as statistical result display setting data 350. FIG. 9 is a data configuration example of the statistical result display setting data 350. As shown in FIG. 9, the statistical result display setting data 350 stores a range of average delay time as a statistical result in association with each of a plurality of display forms.

[Process flow]
FIG. 10 is a flowchart for explaining the flow of the train schedule evaluation support process. First, the total number M of generated result diamonds and the number of statistical units N are set to a predetermined number or according to a user operation input (step A1). Further, the display form of the statistical result is set to a predetermined number or according to a user operation input (step A3). In addition, the number i of actual diamonds is set to an initial value “1” (step A5).

  Thereafter, the generated passenger setting unit 210 probabilistically determines the number of generated passengers at each station in each time zone using the passenger generation probability data 330 (step A7). Next, the record diagram creation unit 220 performs train operation estimation processing that applies the determined number of passengers generated to the train diagram, and creates a record diagram (step A9). Subsequently, the delay time calculation unit 230 compares the created actual schedule with the train schedule, and calculates the delay time of arrival time and the delay time of departure time at each station of each train (step A11). ).

  It is determined whether or not the number i of actual diamonds has reached the total number M of actual diamonds generated. If not (step A13: NO), the generated number i is updated to a value obtained by adding “1” (step A15). ), Returning to step A7, the same processing is repeated.

  Then, if the number i of the actual diamonds reaches the total generation M (step A13: YES), the actual diamond group creation unit 240 will perform the actual diamond composed of N actual diamonds for the M actual diamonds. A set is created (step A17). Subsequently, the delay time statistics unit 250 calculates an average delay time of arrival time and an average delay time of departure time for each train station as statistical processing for the delay time for each of the actual schedule sets. (Step A19). Thereafter, the statistical result display control unit 260 frame-displays the train diamonds in the display form corresponding to the statistical results of the actual diamond group in the order of generation of the actual diamond group (step A21). When the above processing is performed, this processing ends.

[Function and effect]
As described above, according to this embodiment, a predetermined number M of actual schedules are obtained by repeating train operation estimation using the train schedule to be evaluated and the passenger occurrence probability data in which passenger occurrence is defined stochastically. Created and generated a result diamond set consisting of N result diamonds while shifting one by one in the order of generation. Then, for each actual schedule set, calculate the average delay time of arrival and departure times of each station of each train as statistics for the delay time, and in the order of generation, the average delay time corresponding to each fragment line constituting the train diagram The display mode is switched according to the time interval at predetermined time intervals (frame advance display). Thereby, it becomes easy to grasp the state of change in the operation delay in each case where the generation situation of passengers is different.

  For example, it is possible to grasp the occurrence frequency of delay in the diamond portion by observing the change in display of the diamond portion having the train diamond. That is, as shown in FIG. 11, (1) a high-frequency small delay in which a small delay (about 2 minutes) frequently occurs, and (2) a low frequency in which a large delay (about 15 minutes) occurs occasionally. Consider the case of a large delay. In FIG. 11, attention is paid to the delay time of arrival time or departure time of one station. In both cases, the average (overall average) of all delay times is the same (about 2 minutes), but the average delay time (short-term) of short-term combinations (N = 5) calculated while shifting one by one The change in average is different. That is, with high frequency and small delay, the short-term average hardly changes and its value is almost equal to the overall average. On the other hand, the short-term average changes greatly in the case of a small frequent delay. Thus, it can be estimated from the change of the average delay time whether the generated delay occurs with high frequency or low frequency.

  Here, the reason why the occurrence of the low frequency and large delay can be reproduced from the passenger occurrence probability data determined as the normal distribution will be described. This is because, in the train operation estimation (train operation simulation), it is simulated that even if the passenger occurrence probability is a normal distribution, the probability distribution for the stop time is not a normal distribution.

  That is, the stopping time is influenced by parameters such as the number of passengers getting on and off, the number of people getting on, the number of people getting off and getting on per unit time and the amount of getting off and boarding, the safety confirmation time by the conductor and station staff. These parameters can be expressed as a probability distribution according to a normal distribution. Therefore, when the stop time is simply calculated without considering restrictions on train operation (this stop time is referred to as “temporary stop time”), it can be expressed as a probability distribution according to a normal distribution. However, there is a restriction that trains do not depart until the departure time determined by the train schedule. In other words, in the train operation estimation (train operation simulation), the temporary stop time is calculated once, but it is not adopted as the stop time as it is, and the lower limit is set so that it does not depart before the set departure time. The stop time is determined by correction. The same applies to the case where the train operation simulation is simplified and the train operation simulation is adopted in which the temporary stop time is variably determined only by the parameter of the number of passengers.

  Furthermore, the stop time depends on the arrival time of the train and the arrival time of the preceding train. That is, the stop time changes depending on whether or not the train arrives late. In addition, since the train has a restriction on the driving time interval with the preceding train (minimum time limit on the driving interval), the stoppage time changes depending on the delay of the preceding train. Therefore, the temporary stop time is also corrected by these restrictions. In the train operation simulation of the present embodiment, at least the limitation of the driving time interval is taken into consideration.

  For this reason, even when the train operation is estimated using the probability of passenger occurrence according to the normal distribution, the probability distribution for the stop time does not become a normal distribution. Therefore, depending on the generated passenger, a low frequency and large delay may occur, and this will be reproduced.

  Further, since the fragment streaks are displayed in a form corresponding to the statistical result, the degree of delay (the length of the delay time) can be grasped. In addition, when delays occur in almost the same timing in different parts of the train schedule, it can be inferred that there is some causal relationship between the delays in these parts. As a result of observing the frame advance display, the user can create and modify a train diagram that eliminates the delay by using these estimated events.

[Modification]
It should be noted that embodiments to which the present invention can be applied are not limited to the above-described embodiments, and can of course be changed as appropriate without departing from the spirit of the present invention.

(A) Statistical processing for the delay time For example, in the above-described embodiment, the average value is calculated as the statistical processing for the delay time of the performance diagram set, but the maximum value may be calculated. Specifically, the maximum delay time among the actual schedules 30 included in the actual diagram set 50 is calculated for the arrival time and departure time (that is, each fragment line) at each station of each train. The calculated data is used in place of the average arrival delay time / minute data 60 described above.

  Further, both the average value and the maximum value are calculated, and in step A21 in FIG. 10, each segment line is displayed in a form corresponding to the maximum delay time, and the average delay time is displayed. You may decide to switch and display the system which displays a train schedule with the form according to a switching operation of a user.

(B) Number of generated diamonds M
The number M of the actual schedules generated by performing the train operation simulation can be arbitrarily set. However, if there are a large number of actual schedules, it becomes easier to grasp the suitability of the train diagram with respect to the operation delay. That is, many train diagrams can be observed in the frame advance display. Therefore, for example, it is preferable that M is 100 or more.

(C) Number N of track schedules constituting track schedule group
The number N of achievement diamonds constituting the achievement diamond set can be set to any number between 1 and M. However, when N = 1, it may be meaningless to calculate the average delay time of arrival time and departure time (that is, each fragment line) at each station of each train as an actual schedule set. There is. When N = M, the frame advance display cannot be performed, and the average delay time of all the actual schedules is displayed. If the user can arbitrarily set the value of N, the processes in steps A17 to A21 in FIG. 10 may be re-executed according to the newly set value of N.

(D) Data used for train operation estimation In the above-described embodiment, the train operation estimation (train operation simulation) is performed using the number of generated passengers stochastically determined using the passenger generation probability distribution data. In addition, other data used for train operation estimation may be determined stochastically from predetermined probability distribution data, and train operation simulation (train operation estimation) may be performed using these data. Other data includes actual variations such as, for example, boarding flow rate, which is the number of passengers per second, getting off flow rate, which is the number of passengers getting off per second, safety confirmation time by conductors and station staff, and driving time between stations. is assumed. As a result, it is possible to estimate the train operation with higher accuracy, and as a result, it is possible to reproduce the operation delay of the train with higher accuracy.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Train schedule evaluation support apparatus 110 Operation input part, 120 Display part, 130 Communication part 200 Processing part 210 Generated passenger setting part, 220 Result diagram creation part 230 Delay time calculation part, 240 Result diagram group creation part 250 Delay time statistics , 260 Statistical result display control unit 300 Storage unit 310 Train diagram evaluation support program 320 Train diagram data, 330 Passenger occurrence probability data 340 Statistical processing setting data, 350 Statistical result display setting data 360 Actual diagram data, 370 Delay time / minute data 380 Track record data, 390 statistical data

Claims (6)

A program that allows a computer to assist in assessing the suitability of a given train schedule for delays in operation,
Passenger generation means for generating virtual passengers using the probability distribution of passengers at each station at each hour,
Simulation means for generating a performance diagram by performing a train operation simulation to which the passenger generated by the passenger generation means is applied to the train diagram,
For each of M (M ≧ 3) track diagrams obtained by repeatedly functioning the passenger generating means and the simulation means, a delay time is calculated for each fragment line obtained by dividing the train line of each train into fragments. Delay time calculation means,
Statistical means for statistically calculating the delay time for each of the fragment lines, for each result diamond set obtained by combining N of the result diamonds (M> N ≧ 2),
Based on the statistical result of the statistical means, the display control means for performing control to display the train diagram in the form corresponding to the statistical result corresponding to each fragment line, frame by frame for each actual diamond set,
A program for causing the computer to function as The computer is further functioned as a selection means for sequentially selecting the actual diamond group so that the actual diamonds partially overlap with the previous and subsequent actual diamond groups selected,
The display control means causes the frame advance display to be performed according to the selection order of the selection means.
The program according to claim 1. The delay time calculation means calculates the delay time for each fragment line by calculating the arrival delay time and departure delay time of each station of each train,
The program according to claim 1 or 2. The statistical means calculates a maximum delay time and an average delay time for each fragment line for each track record set,
The display control means performs display control by switching between a method of displaying each fragment line in a form corresponding to the maximum delay time and a method of displaying in a form corresponding to the average delay time.
The program as described in any one of Claims 1-3. M is set to 100 or more, the passenger generating means and the simulation means are repeatedly functioned 100 times or more,
For further causing the computer to function as means for setting N according to a user operation input,
The program as described in any one of Claims 1-4. A train schedule evaluation support device for supporting suitability evaluation for delay of operation of a given train schedule,
Passenger generating means for generating virtual passengers using the probability distribution of passengers at each station at each time,
Simulation means for generating a performance diagram by performing a train operation simulation applying the passenger generated by the passenger generation means for the train diagram,
For each of M (M ≧ 3) track diagrams obtained by repeatedly functioning the passenger generating means and the simulation means, a delay time is calculated for each fragment line obtained by dividing the train line of each train into fragments. Delay time calculation means,
Statistical means for statistically calculating the delay time for each fragment line for each of the result diamond sets obtained by combining N of the result diamonds (M> N ≧ 2);
Based on the statistical results of the statistical means, display control means for performing control to display the train diagram in a form corresponding to the statistical results corresponding to each fragment line, frame by frame for each of the actual diamond sets;
Train schedule evaluation support device equipped with.

Images