JP5973124B2 - Sudden local heavy rain prediction method and apparatus - Google Patents

Description

  BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a method and apparatus for predicting sudden local heavy rain, and more particularly to a method and apparatus for predicting sudden local heavy rain using a mobile terminal device such as a mobile phone that is always held by a person and a GPS system. It is.

Among these types of technologies, there is a heavy rain prediction system promoted by the Japan Meteorological Association as the first conventional technology. This suggests a method for obtaining precipitable water using GPS data received at an electronic reference point (a point that the Geospatial Information Authority maintains and operates at intervals of about 20 km (kilometers) for geodetic surveys to use GPS) To do. This technology is used for weather forecasting, paying attention to the fact that radio waves are slightly slower than the standard atmosphere when passing through the atmosphere. The amount of delay of the radio wave is a function of the refractive index of the atmosphere, and the atmospheric refractive index is considered to be a function of atmospheric pressure, air temperature, and humidity. Therefore, the atmospheric water vapor and temperature are estimated by using this property. The model formula for calculating the delay amount is as follows.
ΔR = 10 ^-6 ∫N _dry ds + 10 ^-6 ∫N _wet ds
here,
ΔR: Tropospheric delay amount N _dry : Refractive property of dry atmosphere (function of atmospheric pressure and temperature)
N _wet : Water vapor refractive index (function of relative humidity and temperature)
ds: propagation path distance.

In the conventional local heavy rain forecast, the amount of precipitable water and radar data acquired at a plurality of GPS electronic reference points are incorporated into an existing weather prediction model, and the result is provided.
As a second conventional technique for predicting heavy rain, for example, there is one described in Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2005-257639. This includes cloud discharge detection means for detecting the amount of cloud discharge, radar echo detection means for detecting the position of the cloud, analysis of the stage of thundercloud growth from the amount of cloud discharge, and the time and amount of rainfall until the start of rainfall. Predicting rainfall predicting means, thundercloud position detecting means for detecting thundercloud position information by means of cloud discharge detecting means and the radar echo detecting means, predicted rainfall time and predicted rainfall amount by the rain prediction means, and the thundercloud position information. It is a heavy rain monitoring system composed of means for combining with map data. This heavy rain monitoring system creates a heavy rain possible map for a relatively wide area and predicts heavy rain from now on.

JP-A-2005-257639

  However, the first prior art has a problem that it is difficult to predict heavy rain at an imminent time, such as a few minutes later, because the update frequency of data necessary for heavy rain prediction is as long as 3 hours. In addition, since the precipitable water amount data can be acquired only at intervals of 20 km where the electronic reference points are installed, it is difficult to predict the heavy rain by pinpoint at an arbitrary place, that is, a narrower place. Furthermore, since data obtained from multiple electronic control points are used for heavy rain prediction, there is a problem that it is necessary to construct a large-scale system.

  Further, in the second prior art, it is necessary to install a cloud discharge detection device and a radar device as facilities, and in this case also, there is a problem that a large-scale system needs to be constructed. there were.

  The present invention has been made paying attention to the above-mentioned conventional problems, and the purpose of the present invention is to make it possible to predict heavy rain in a very narrow range close to pinpoint in an almost real time with a simple system. It is to provide a local heavy rain prediction method and apparatus.

In order to achieve the above object, the present invention incorporates a GPS receiver that is incorporated in a ground communication device and receives GPS data, and extracts the GPS satellite time from the GPS data received by the GPS receiver. A propagation time calculation means for obtaining the propagation time of GPS data from the time difference between the time of the GPS and the time on the ground, and the reference propagation time with reference to the propagation time of the GPS data when the GPS data passes through the standard atmosphere , A propagation delay amount calculating means for obtaining a propagation delay amount by taking a difference from the GPS data propagation time at the current time point, and GPS precipitable water for detecting a propagation delay amount over time and obtaining a propagation delay amount change per unit time the amount time gradient calculating means, the propagation delay determined by the propagation delay time calculation means, and the calculation result of the GPS PWV time gradient calculating means Based on, it provides a sudden local heavy rainfall prediction apparatus and a determining rain determination means for rain risk at the point of observation by the communication device.

The present invention also includes a step of receiving GPS data by a GPS receiver incorporated in a ground communication device, a time of a GPS satellite is extracted from the GPS data received by the GPS receiver, and a time of the GPS satellite; The step of obtaining the propagation time of the GPS data from the time difference from the time on the ground, and the propagation time of the GPS data when the GPS data has passed through the standard atmosphere, the reference propagation time and the current GPS data The propagation delay amount calculating means for calculating the propagation delay amount (A) by taking the difference from the propagation time, and the propagation delay amounts (t1; A1, t2; A2, t3; A3,. Is the time, A1, A2, A3 ... is the propagation delay amount) and the propagation delay amount change per unit time,
(A2-A1) / (t2-t1), (A3-A2) / (t3-t2),. . .
And the step of determining the risk of heavy rain based on the propagation delay amount obtained in the step of calculating the propagation delay amount and the calculation result of the change in the propagation delay amount, Provide a method.

The present invention also is composed of a communication device having a GPS receiver for receiving GPS data, a server for transmitting and receiving data to and from the communication device, the communication device is received by the GPS receiver GPS data when GPS data has passed through the standard atmosphere, and a propagation time calculation means for obtaining the GPS data propagation time from the time difference between the time of the GPS satellite and the time on the ground. The propagation delay amount calculating means for obtaining the propagation delay amount by taking the difference between the reference propagation time and the propagation time of the GPS data at the current time point, and transmitting and receiving data between the server and the server. And the server performs precipitable water data and analysis operations necessary for heavy rain forecast processing, and other server operations. A main data server for storing program data necessary for the operation, and a GPS precipitable water amount time gradient calculating means for detecting a propagation delay amount sent from the communication device over time to obtain a change in the propagation delay amount per unit time; , Based on the propagation delay amount sent from the communication device, and the calculation result of the GPS precipitable amount time gradient calculation means, and heavy rain determination means for determining the risk of heavy rain at the point observed by the communication device , An analysis server that calculates the precipitable water time gradient based on the precipitable water data, analyzes heavy rain forecasts and judgments, analyzes the regional distribution of precipitable water, and the analysis obtained by the analysis server results or heavy rain prediction result and forecast distribution server to transmit to the communication device or other distribution destination, a sudden local heavy rainfall prediction system characterized in that it comprises a Hisage To.

  By the apparatus or method as described above, sudden local heavy rain can be predicted by a simple system, in particular, a mobile terminal device such as a mobile phone that is always held by a person and an existing GPS system. In particular, the present invention has an advantage that heavy rain prediction in a very narrow range close to pinpoint can be performed almost in real time.

It is a block diagram which shows the system configuration | structure of the portable information terminal device incorporating the heavy rain prediction function by the 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a block diagram which shows the function structure of the heavy rain forecast used in the said embodiment. It is a flowchart explaining the heavy rain prediction operation example in the said embodiment. It is a figure which shows the data table prepared in order to calculate precipitable water in the said embodiment. It is a figure which shows the data table prepared in order to determine the risk of heavy rain from the time change of precipitable water in the said embodiment. It is a graph which shows the time change of precipitable water amount in the said embodiment, and the determination method of the risk of heavy rain in this time change of precipitable water amount. FIG. 7 is a system configuration diagram showing a heavy rain prediction system according to the second embodiment of the present invention. It is a flowchart explaining operation | movement of the heavy rain prediction system which concerns on 2nd Embodiment.

(Embodiment 1)
Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a system configuration of a mobile phone which is a terrestrial communication device incorporating a heavy rain prediction system according to a first embodiment of the present invention. In this figure, 1 is a clock device provided in the mobile phone itself, 2 is a GPS receiver incorporated in the mobile phone, 3 is a voice input unit for realizing a transmission call function as a mobile phone, 4 is various operations An input unit 5 for inputting a command is a timer for measuring time. In addition, 6 is a voice output unit for realizing a transmission call function as a mobile phone, 7 is a display unit for displaying various information, 8 is a communication unit for connecting the mobile phone to a line or a network, and 9 is various types of mobile phones. The data storage unit stores data necessary for operation. Reference numeral 10 denotes a computer (CPU) that controls the operation of each of the above units 1 to 9, and realizes a hardware configuration mainly composed of a computer as a whole.

The clock device 1 measures time on the ground, and a quartz clock or the like is used. The GPS receiver 2 receives time data from an atomic clock mounted on a GPS satellite. The voice input unit 3 is composed of a microphone. The input unit 4 includes a key or a touch panel provided in the portable information terminal device . The timer 5 is connected to or built in the CPU 10 and defines the processing timing of the CPU 10. The audio output unit 6 includes a speaker. The display unit 7 includes a liquid crystal or a display device such as the touch panel. The communication unit includes a transmission / reception device and connects the portable information terminal device to a line or a network. The data storage unit 9 includes a memory, a hard disk, an external storage medium, or the like.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a heavy rain prediction system that performs heavy rain prediction processing under the control of the CPU 10 in the portable information terminal device . The CPU 10 includes a propagation time calculation unit 11 that determines the propagation time of GPS data, a propagation delay amount calculation unit 12 that calculates the propagation delay amount of GPS data, and a GPS precipitable amount time gradient calculation unit that calculates time variation of the propagation delay amount. 13 and a heavy rain determination unit 14 for determining the risk of heavy rain at a point observed by the mobile terminal device are incorporated as software. These software are stored in a ROM built in the CPU, or taken in from the outside through a communication line or a network.

  The operation of the heavy rain prediction system having the above configuration will be described below. FIG. 3 is a flowchart for explaining the heavy rain prediction operation by the heavy rain prediction system. In the example of FIG. 3, the propagation time calculation unit 11 extracts GPS satellite time information from the GPS data received by the GPS receiver 2, and also extracts time information of the self-portable terminal device from the clock device 1. The propagation time of GPS data is obtained from the time difference between the time and the time of the self-portable terminal device. In this process, it is necessary that the time of the GPS satellite and the time of the self-portable terminal device be synchronized. For this reason, a reference between the clock device 1 and the GPS receiver 2 is required. Arrangements for matching the time system (UT system or UTC system) are made in advance.

  The propagation time calculation unit 11 calculates the propagation time of GPS data when the GPS data passes through the standard atmosphere, and calculates the propagation time of GPS data when the GPS data passes through the atmosphere at a certain moment (time point). . The propagation delay calculation unit 12 uses the GPS data propagation time when the GPS data has passed through the standard atmosphere as a reference, and the propagation time in the standard atmosphere is determined from the difference between the reference propagation time and the propagation time of the GPS data at a certain moment. A delay amount A is calculated (step ST1). Here, the standard atmosphere is not limited to the atmosphere on a sunny day, and it may be determined as the standard atmosphere for the heavy rain prediction system even if it is cloudy. Since the reference propagation time and the propagation delay amount A in the standard atmosphere can be reused at any time later or at a later date, recording in the data storage unit 9 as the reference propagation delay amount simplifies the processing. This is preferable (after the next time, the process of step ST1 becomes unnecessary). Next, the propagation delay amount calculation unit 12 acquires the propagation time of the GPS data when the GPS data has passed through the atmosphere at another time (current) from the propagation time calculation unit 11, and the propagation time and the reference propagation time described above. The propagation delay amount B in the current atmosphere is calculated from the difference between (step ST2). Next, the propagation delay amount calculation unit 12 calculates a difference in propagation delay amount between the standard atmosphere and the actual atmosphere (step ST3), and further calculates a precipitable amount from the difference in propagation delay amount.

  FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a data table for calculating the precipitable water amount. This data table is stored in the data storage unit 9 and is output from the data storage unit 9 to the propagation delay amount calculation unit 12 in accordance with the processing operation of the propagation delay amount calculation unit 12. As is clear from FIG. 4, when the difference in propagation delay is a small value, the precipitable water is small (it is difficult to rain), and when the difference in propagation delay is large, the precipitable water is large (rain falls). Easy). However, even if the difference in propagation delay is large, the amount of precipitable water increases, but it does not necessarily cause sudden heavy rain, and the weather may change gradually over time from light rain to main rain. . Therefore, in the present invention, in step ST5, the precipitable water time gradient calculating unit 13 calculates the precipitable water time gradient, and the heavy rain determining unit 14 determines the heavy rain risk based on the precipitable water time gradient. calculate. Here, the time gradient of precipitable water is a degree of change indicating how much precipitable water has changed per unit time.

In the processing operation, the precipitable water amount time gradient calculating unit 13 performs the following arithmetic processing as an example. That is, propagation delay amounts (t1; A1, t2; A2, t3; A3,..., Where t1, t2, t3,... Are times, and A1, A2, A3,. Delay amount) is detected and a change in propagation delay amount per unit time (A2-A1) / (t2-t1), (A3-A2) / (t3-t2),. . .
Ask for.

  FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a data table for calculating the risk of heavy rain from the temporal change of precipitable water in the present embodiment. The value of the precipitable water time gradient obtained by the above calculation is collated with the value in the left column of the data table of FIG. This data table is stored in the data storage unit 9 and is output from the data storage unit 9 to the heavy rain determination unit 14 in accordance with the processing operation of the heavy rain determination unit 14. In FIG. 5, the larger the value of the precipitable water amount time gradient, the easier the sudden heavy rain occurs and the higher the risk of heavy rain. In order to determine sudden heavy rain more accurately or appropriately, not only the data table for heavy rain risk calculation is output from the data storage unit 9 to the heavy rain determination unit 14, but also the processing in the propagation delay amount calculation unit 12 is performed. The result is also output to the heavy rain determination unit 14, and it is preferable that the heavy rain determination unit 14 determines heavy rain based on both data (a signal line 20 represented by a one-dot chain line in FIG. 2). By doing so, it is possible to obtain what level of precipitable water with what precipitable water time gradient by calculation (even if the precipitable water time gradient is the same 20 mm, the precipitable water amount is 10 to 30 mm. The risk of heavy rain is greater in the case of a change of 50 to 70 mm than the change). FIG. 6 is a graph showing a method for determining the heavy rain risk when such heavy rain risk determination is performed by timer control. In this graph, the horizontal axis represents elapsed time, and the vertical axis represents precipitable water. The place where the graph curve soars (the part circled in the figure) is where the precipitable waterfall time gradient is large, and that part is a part where the precipitable water amount is also high, so the risk of heavy rain is high. Represents that.

According to the present embodiment as described above, it is possible to predict the risk of localized heavy rain pinpoint with a portable information terminal device by rain prediction system mounted to the portable information terminal device. Therefore, the user of the portable information terminal device can take appropriate disaster prevention actions before heavy rains come everywhere.

(Embodiment 2)
The heavy rain prediction by the above-described heavy rain prediction system is an example in which a heavy rain prediction system is mounted on a portable information terminal device and the heavy rain prediction is performed only by the portable information terminal device . On the other hand, there is also a method for carrying out heavy rain prediction using another system configuration. FIG. 7 is a system configuration diagram showing a heavy rain prediction system according to the second embodiment of the present invention. In this embodiment, a portable information terminal device is provided with a data collection function for heavy rain prediction, and heavy rain prediction is performed. Analysis is performed on the center (server) side. And FIG. 7 is a figure which shows the mode of transmission / reception of the data between a portable information terminal device and a server. In FIG. 7, 15 represents a server, and 16 represents a portable information terminal device . In this example, the server 15 includes a main data server 17, an analysis server 18, and a forecast distribution server 19. The main data server 17 is a server for storing the precipitable water amount data and analysis operation sent from the portable information terminal device and other program data necessary for the operation of the entire server 15. The main data server 17 has the same function as that of the data storage unit 9 shown in FIG. 2, and this main data server 17 has the same data table as shown in FIG. 4 and the data table shown in FIG. The data table is stored. The analysis server 18 is a server for calculating the precipitable water time gradient based on the precipitable water data, analyzing heavy rain prediction and determination, and analyzing the regional distribution of precipitable water. The forecast distribution server 19 is a server for transmitting the analysis result or the heavy rain prediction result obtained in the analysis server 18 to the previous distribution.

The operation of the heavy rain prediction system having such a system configuration will be described below. FIG. 8 is a flowchart for explaining the operation of the heavy rain prediction system according to the second embodiment. In the example of FIG. 8, first, GPS precipitable water (hereinafter simply referred to as precipitable water) over the point is calculated on the portable information terminal device 16 side (step ST11). This process is executed by the propagation time calculation unit 11 and the propagation delay amount calculation unit 12 incorporated in the portable information terminal device 16. Next, this precipitable water amount data is transmitted from the portable information terminal device 16 to the server 15 (step ST12). Precipitable water data transmitted to the server 15 side is stored in the main data server 17. Next, the precipitable water amount time gradient is calculated by the application on the server (step ST13). This process is executed by the analysis server 18. The analysis server 18 has an application corresponding to the precipitable water time gradient calculating unit 13 and the heavy rain judging unit 14 shown in FIG. 2, and has a built-in timer for analyzing the change in precipitable water over time. Yes. Next, information on the pinpoint heavy rain risk is transmitted from the server 15 to the portable information terminal device 16, and this heavy rain risk information is displayed on the display unit 7 of the portable information terminal device 16 (step ST14). This process is executed by the forecast distribution server 19. The forecast distribution server 19 has a communication function, and transmits heavy rain risk information in the form of a reply to the portable information terminal device 16 that has transmitted the precipitable water amount data in step ST12.

As described above, according to the present embodiment, since the analysis for heavy rain prediction is performed on the server 15 side, the portable information terminal device 16 has the precipitable water as used in the first embodiment. It is not necessary to install a function unit or application corresponding to the quantity / time gradient calculation unit 13, the heavy rain determination unit 14 and the timer 5, and it is possible to reduce the table data stored in the data storage unit and to simplify the equipment. Can be achieved. Of course, also in the second embodiment, the portable information terminal device 16 may incorporate all the functional units or applications of the heavy rain prediction system, as in the portable information terminal device of the first embodiment.

In the second embodiment, the center operator signs forecasts such as weather with a plurality of contractors (users), and is transmitted from the portable information terminal device 16 as described above. Heavy rain risk information obtained based on precipitation data can be distributed to the user. Further, in the present embodiment, when the precipitable water amount data is transmitted from the plurality of portable information terminal devices 16, as a result of the analysis by the analysis server 18, the local area in a certain area is a small area. Torrential rain forecast becomes possible. Moreover, if a plurality of users are scattered in a wide area, it is possible to predict heavy rain in a wider area. Therefore, the distribution of the heavy rain risk information to the user can be made more effective.

In the first and second embodiments, examples of the portable information terminal device equipped with the heavy rain prediction system include a mobile computer, other various portable terminals, and a mobile phone, both of which achieve the same purpose. Can do.

  According to the sudden local heavy rain prediction method and apparatus according to the present invention, the propagation time of GPS data is obtained from the time difference between the time of the GPS satellite and the time of the self-portable terminal device, and the difference between the propagation time and the reference propagation time. Thus, the propagation delay amount is obtained, and further, the temporal change of the propagation delay amount is obtained, and the sudden local heavy rain prediction is performed. This allows a simple system to predict heavy rain in a very narrow range close to pinpoint in almost real time.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Clock apparatus 2 GPS receiver 3 Voice input part 4 Input part 5 Timer 6 Voice output part 7 Display part 8 Communication part 9 Data storage part 10 Computer (CPU)
DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 11 Propagation time calculation part 12 Propagation delay amount calculation part 13 GPS precipitable water amount time gradient calculation part 14 Heavy rain determination part 15 Server 16 Mobile phone 17 Main data server 18 Analysis server 19 Forecast distribution server

Claims (3)

A GPS receiver built in a ground communication device and receiving GPS data ;
A propagation time calculating means for extracting the time of the GPS satellite from the GPS data received by the GPS receiver, and obtaining the propagation time of the GPS data from the time difference between the time of the GPS satellite and the time on the ground ;
Based on the propagation time of the GPS data when the GPS data has passed through the standard atmosphere, the propagation delay amount calculation for obtaining the propagation delay amount by taking the difference between the reference propagation time and the propagation time of the GPS data at the current time point Means,
GPS precipitable water amount time gradient calculating means for detecting a propagation delay amount over time and obtaining a propagation delay amount change per unit time;
Based on the propagation delay amount obtained by the propagation delay amount calculating means and the calculation result of the GPS precipitable water amount time gradient calculating means, the heavy rain determining means for determining the risk of heavy rain at the point observed by the communication device ;
Sudden local heavy rain forecasting device equipped with. Receiving GPS data by a GPS receiver incorporated in a ground communication device ;
Extracting the time of the GPS satellite from the GPS data received by the GPS receiver, and determining the propagation time of the GPS data from the time difference between the time of the GPS satellite and the time on the ground ;
GPS data is based on the propagation time of the GPS data when passed through the standard atmospheric, and the reference propagation time, calculating a propagation delay amount by taking the difference between the propagation time of the GPS data at the current time point,
Propagation delay amount (t1; A1, t2; A2, t3; A3, ..., where tn is time, A1, A2, A3 ... is propagation delay amount) at different times Propagation delay amount change (A2-A1) / (t2-t1), (A3-A2) / (t3-t2),. . .
The process of seeking
Determining the risk of heavy rain based on the propagation delay obtained in the step of calculating the propagation delay, and the calculation result of the change in propagation delay;
Sudden local heavy rain prediction method having A communication device including a GPS receiver for receiving GPS data ;
A server that transmits and receives data to and from the communication device ;
The communication device
A propagation time calculating means for extracting the time of the GPS satellite from the GPS data received by the GPS receiver, and obtaining the propagation time of the GPS data from the time difference between the time of the GPS satellite and the time on the ground ;
Based on the propagation time of the GPS data when the GPS data has passed through the standard atmosphere, the propagation delay amount calculation for obtaining the propagation delay amount by taking the difference between the reference propagation time and the propagation time of the GPS data at the current time point Means,
A communication unit that transmits and receives data to and from the server, and
The server
A main data server that stores precipitable water data and analysis operations necessary for heavy rain forecast processing, and other program data necessary for overall server operations;
GPS precipitable amount time gradient calculating means for detecting a propagation delay amount sent from the communication device over time to obtain a change in propagation delay amount per unit time, a propagation delay amount sent from the communication device, and GPS Based on the calculation result of the precipitable water time gradient calculating means, it has heavy rain determining means for determining the risk of heavy rain at the point observed by the communication device , and calculates the precipitable water time gradient based on the precipitable water data. And an analysis server that analyzes heavy rain forecasts and judgments, and analyzes the regional distribution of precipitable water,
A forecast distribution server for transmitting the analysis result or heavy rain prediction result obtained in the analysis server to the communication device or another distribution destination;
Sudden local heavy rain forecast system characterized by having.

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