JP4915550B2 - Evacuation behavior prediction system and evacuation behavior prediction method - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to an evacuation behavior prediction system and an evacuation behavior prediction method for predicting evacuation behavior between a plurality of buildings at the time of a disaster.

  In companies located in coastal areas, when a tsunami occurs after an earthquake, the time until the tsunami strikes is fast, so it is important how to evacuate to a safe place within a short time. Evacuation at a wide regional level centered on local governments is not very effective for evacuation safety because the time until the tsunami strikes is short, and it is expected that evacuation using buildings at the block level will often be effective Is done.

  Predicting evacuation behavior when a tsunami occurs is one of the effective means for considering whether to evacuate safely when a tsunami occurs. For example, Non-Patent Document 1 proposes a method for predicting evacuation behavior against such a tsunami. The method proposed in Non-Patent Document 1 is mainly intended for evacuation behavior at a regional level at a municipal level.

Masaki Fujioka, Kenichi Ishibashi, Hideki Tsuji, Isao Tsukagoshi, “Evaluation of Tsunami Evacuation Measures by Multi-Agent Model” Architectural Institute of Japan, Series 562, pp.231-236, 2002.12

  However, in the conventional evacuation behavior prediction method described in Non-Patent Document 1, when the evacuation behavior is predicted, the road network in the area is modeled, and the refugee moves the road to the evacuation destination. The main focus is placed. Detailed conditions such as the form and arrangement of individual buildings in the target area and the distribution of the number of evacuees are not considered. For this reason, there was a problem that detailed examination at the block level including actions in the building could not be performed.

  In the evacuation action at the block level when a tsunami occurs, for example, in a factory in a coastal area composed of multiple buildings on one site, evacuate targeting a specific high-rise building on the site from multiple buildings This is expected. As described above, it is difficult to predict the evacuation behavior for another specific building via the street after evacuating to the outdoors.

  When evaluating safety against tsunamis using the evacuation behavior prediction method, predict changes in the tsunami run-up range and water depth time history, and compare the calculation results with the evacuation behavior prediction results. Therefore, the existence of victims will be examined. For example, in the conventional prediction method described in Non-Patent Document 1, a change in the time range of the tsunami and the time history of the water depth is predicted according to the sea level of the target point. When predicting evacuation behavior at the block level, whether or not the residents are directly affected by the tsunami depends on the floor height at which the refugee hits the tsunami and the rising height of the tsunami.

  While conventional evacuation behavior prediction methods for tsunamis take into account differences in ground level, differences in building height are not taken into account, so the effects of differences in building floors on evacuation safety cannot be considered. There wasn't. For this reason, when a tsunami evacuation building for emergency evacuation is installed on the premises as a measure to secure an evacuation place when a tsunami hits, it is difficult to evaluate the effect using an evacuation behavior prediction method.

  This invention solves the said subject, Comprising: It aims at provision of the evacuation action prediction system and evacuation action prediction method which predict the evacuation action between several buildings in a block level at the time of a disaster occurrence.

In order to achieve such an object, the evacuation behavior prediction system according to the present invention uses the tsunami scenario data including the location of the epicenter and the magnitude of the earthquake, and the tsunami generation time and time step interval formed based on the tsunami scenario data. Including time data, tsunami scenario data and tsunami propagation time and tsunami water depth and time tsunami data formed based on the time data, tsunami data including flow velocity , one or more chambers or doors, passages, stairs Each of the following data is input : spatial data including buildings composed of obstacles and having three-dimensional coordinates , walking speed of each evacuee, room where the spatial data is initially arranged, and human data including the evacuation site Input means to
Storage means for storing and updating each data input by the input means;
Based on each data stored in the storage means, the doors, stairs, and passages are used as connection information, and the connection information leading to the evacuation site is used as a short-term movement target. Assuming repulsive force, the movement distance corresponding to the walking speed is obtained at each time step, and the time history in the evacuation route from the initially arranged room to the evacuation site connected by the connection information is obtained. Control means for calculating the movement position of each evacuee ;
Output means for outputting information on the movement position of each evacuee in the time history calculated by the control means,
The tsunami data includes the analysis result of the tsunami run-up height,
The control means specifies a space that is affected by the tsunami run-up in the time history based on the three-dimensional coordinates, the tsunami propagation time, the tsunami water depth, the flow velocity, and the tsunami run-up height in the time history. It is characterized by that.

Further, the spatial data includes a plurality of buildings on site, is set in a model of city blocks in communication with the street between each building, the shelter is set to any chamber of the building, The movement position in the time history of each refugee on the evacuation route to the evacuation place is calculated .

  Further, the evacuation behavior prediction system of the present invention sets the final evacuation sites at a plurality of locations, and evacuates the refugees existing in each building in a distributed manner at the plurality of final evacuation sites. Features.

  In the evacuation behavior prediction system of the present invention, the final evacuation site is set as a long-term movement target for the evacuee to evacuate, and a short-term movement target is set for each building where the refugee exists. It is characterized by.

The evacuation behavior prediction method according to the second embodiment of the present invention includes a step of inputting tsunami scenario data including an epicenter location and an earthquake magnitude ,
Inputting time data including a tsunami occurrence time and a time step interval formed based on the tsunami scenario data;
Inputting tsunami data including a tsunami propagation time and a tsunami depth in a time history formed based on the tsunami scenario data and the time data ;
Inputting spatial data having a three-dimensional coordinate system including a building composed of an assembly of one or more rooms, doors, passages, stairs, and obstacles ;
Inputting human data including the walking speed of each evacuee, the room where the space data is initially arranged, and the evacuation site ;
Storing and updating the time data in a storage means;
Storing / updating the tsunami data in storage means;
Storing and updating the spatial data in a storage means;
Storing and updating the human data in a storage means;
Based on each data stored in the storage means, the doors, stairs, and passages are used as connection information, and the connection information leading to the evacuation site is used as a short-term movement target. Assuming repulsive force, the movement distance corresponding to the walking speed is obtained at each time step, and the time history in the evacuation route from the initially arranged room to the evacuation site connected by the connection information is obtained. Calculating the movement position of each evacuee ;
Outputting information on the movement position of each evacuee in the calculated time history ;
Consists of
The tsunami data includes an analysis result of the tsunami run-up height, and in the step of calculating the movement position of each evacuee in the time history, the three-dimensional coordinates and the propagation time of the tsunami and the time history The space affected by the tsunami run-up in the time history is specified based on the tsunami water depth, the flow velocity, and the tsunami run-up height .

Further, the spatial data of the evacuation prediction method according to the second embodiment of the present invention includes a plurality of building on site, which is set in a model of city blocks in communication with the street between each building ,
In the step of inputting the human data, an evacuation site is set in an arbitrary room of the plurality of buildings.

According to the present invention, the following specific effects can be obtained. (1) It is possible to consider an evacuation plan according to the building-specific conditions of the location and facility layout of the target building and the layout within the employee's facility. (2) It is possible to compare and examine the effects of hard disaster prevention measures for buildings and block units such as breakwaters and evacuation facilities on evacuation safety against tsunamis. (3) It is possible to compare and examine the effects of soft disaster prevention measures such as setting of final evacuation sites and evacuation guidance plans on evacuation safety against tsunamis. (4) By individually modeling the streets connecting the rooms in the building and the buildings at the block level, it is possible to predict the evacuation behavior between the multiple buildings due to the tsunami. (5) based on the relationship between the height of the analysis results and building on each floor of the tsunami run-up height, to identify the floor affected by the tsunami run-up, Ru can be used to predict the occurrence situation of the victims of each floor .

  First, an example of an evacuation simulation model, which is a prerequisite technology of the present invention, will be described. The evacuation simulation model deals with the interaction problem of three elements: space, human, tsunami propagation / upstream. For this reason, in the evacuation simulation model, it is important that these three elements are appropriately expressed in consideration of the relationship between the elements, and that the influence of each element on the evacuation behavior can be evaluated. In the present invention, the evacuation simulation model is constructed based on an object-oriented calculation method.

  First, modeling of three elements by object orientation will be described. Object orientation is a methodology for building a problem solving system (or model) using a computer. In the object-oriented method, several objects for solving a problem to be handled are found, and the relationship between the objects is regarded as a network structure to solve the problem.

  An object, which is a basic unit in object orientation, is defined by data indicating its own state and a specification (method) regarding how it behaves. And in the problem solving process, send messages between objects (message sending), activate the specifications corresponding to the messages sent to you, change your state, or send the data that the destination needs Or providing.

  With regard to space modeling, the model was based on the assumption that humans can move freely in the space with the room (factory) as the basic unit. Regarding tsunami propagation and run-up, the tsunami propagation and run-up simulation model results were modeled so that they could be used as input conditions for evacuation simulation.

  The reason for developing an evacuation simulation model based on object orientation is that it can be modeled by considering each of the three elements as space, human, and tsunami propagation / upstream, as independent objects. This makes it possible to proceed with the development step by step for each model, and produces an advantage at the development stage as compared with the model development mode that emphasizes the algorithm. In addition, modification and improvement of the model can be performed for each object, and the extensibility of the entire model can be improved.

  Next, modeling of an individual person using object orientation will be described. In this model, human individuals are considered to be objects that have walking speed, evacuation action start time, occupied area on evacuation action, etc., which are considered important as characteristics in evacuation behavior, and these data can be set individually. .

  This human object can behave independently based on data defined for itself and data provided by other objects, even though the basic behavior for evacuation behavior is the same. Specifically, the human object can obtain the contents of the situation change due to the tsunami propagation and the influence of the tsunami from the space, and can select the evacuation route independently according to the situation. The evacuation direction of a human object is initially determined by obtaining data on the surrounding situation and determining the movement target for evacuation, receiving attraction from the movement target and repulsive force from the obstacle, and vector of those forces We decided to synthesize.

  The features of the model of the present invention and the concept underlying the outline will be described with reference to the explanatory diagram of FIG. The evacuation simulation model 30 is basically composed of three models as shown in the explanatory diagram of FIG. The space model 31 is responsible for modeling a space in which a person inside a building (a factory in the embodiment) can move, and the human model 32 is responsible for modeling a person who performs an evacuation action.

  These two models form the basis of this model, and the simulator 35 manages both models. The tsunami model 34 set in the tsunami propagation / upward simulation model 33 plays a role of manually manipulating the space model 31 with the tsunami propagation / upward conditions in the building after the arrival of the tsunami. Each model shown here is basically composed of a plurality of objects.

  The space model 31 handles modeling of a space in which a human can move. In this model, a building is defined as an assembly of multiple levels, and a hierarchy is defined as an assembly of multiple rooms. Here, the connection information between layers is managed by a staircase, and the connection information between rooms is managed by a door. As will be described later, the embodiment of the present invention is intended for a facility having a large number of factories in the site. For this reason, the spatial model is handled as a block that consists of streets connecting factories.

  A room object that models a room, which is the smallest unit of the model, has a geometrical meaning surrounded by multiple walls as shown in the explanatory diagram of Fig. 4 for the purpose of capturing the evacuation locus in a form that is close to reality. Defined as a closed space. That is, in FIG. 4, when a space composed of a room 40 and corridors 41 and 42 is modeled, the room 40 is surrounded by four line segments (walls) 43 a to 43 d. The corridors 41 and 42 are partitioned by doors 44a to 44d and walls 43a to 43d.

  In addition to information about walls from room objects, human objects include information on exits, doors, and guidance displays that are movement targets for evacuation, as well as other people and fixtures in the room that are obstacles to evacuation. Obstacle information can be extracted. The human object can move relatively freely in the room based on the information.

  Next, the human model 32 will be described. In this evacuation simulation model, humans who can evacuate by themselves (self-refugee class) and those who cannot evacuate by themselves (helper class) from the viewpoint of differences in the characteristics of human beings in the building And three types of human beings (assistant class) who assist (or rescue) humans who are unable to evacuate on their own, targeting facility managers and fire brigade. Here, the class corresponds to the “type” definition of the object.

  Next, determination of the movement target will be described. The self-evacuation object and the assistant class object perform the evacuation behavior while selecting the short-term movement target in order to satisfy the preset long-term movement target. The meaning of each of the long-term movement target and the short-term movement target is as follows: (a) The long-term movement target is a place where it is desired to finally evacuate (move). (B) The short-term movement target is a place where it is desired to reach (pass) for the time being to satisfy the long-term movement target. That is, while selecting the short-term movement target, the evacuation action is performed until the reached location coincides with the long-term movement month sign.

  “Evacuation site” is set as the long-term movement target of the evacuee object. The door is selected as the short-term movement target. In this model, an arbitrary place such as a room in another building (office building) that is different from the building (factory) is finalized based on the overall evacuation scenario for letting humans take evacuation actions. The evacuation site is set as “evacuation site”, and the door leading to the “evacuation site” is represented as “exit”.

  FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram showing a selection rule for a short-term movement target of a self-evacuated person. It is assumed that a self-refugee 50a exists in the room 40a, a self-refugee 50b exists in the room 40b, and a self-refugee 50c exists in the hallway 41. (1) If there is an exit in the space where you are, select the exit closest to you from the exit. In this example, the self-refugee 50c selects the exit 46.

  (2) If there is a guide light in the space where you are, select the door in the direction indicated by the guide light that is the closest to you among the guide lights. In this example, the self-evacuated person 50 a selects the door 44 g in the direction indicated by the guide light 45. (3) In other cases, the door closest to the user is selected from the doors in the room in which the user is present. In this example, the self-evacuated person 50b selects the door 44h that is the closest to the person among the doors in the room 40b where the person is located. In addition, the priority order which applies these rules is the order of said (1)-(3).

  Next, determination of the movement direction and movement position of the evacuees will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 6 is a conceptual diagram of the moving direction and position determination of the evacuees 50e. As shown in FIG. 6, the movement direction after the short-term movement target is determined in the self-evacuation object and the assistant object is assumed to be a plurality of force vectors that are assumed to act psychologically on humans. Is determined by combining the vectors. R indicates the range reached at the walking speed per unit step, and Rx indicates the starting point of the movement position in the next step.

  As for the force acting on human beings, it was assumed that gravitational force was applied from moving targets (doors and guide lights) and repulsive force from obstacles (walls, other humans and fixtures) in evacuation behavior. In the example of FIG. 6, an attractive force F (r4) acts on the evacuee 50e from the door 44. Also, repulsive forces F (r1) and F (r2) act from the walls, and repulsive forces F (r3) act from the other evacuees 50f. These forces are generally determined in inverse proportion to the distance from each object. In addition, an inertial force having a certain magnitude with respect to the moving direction was considered. The reason why the inertial force is taken into account is that the human movement is considered as a smooth movement close to reality.

  The starting point Rx of the next movement position in the simulation step is determined based on the direction of the vector ΣF obtained by combining these force vectors and the walking speed set in advance for each object. At this time, since the attractive force is set to be a relatively large value compared to the repulsive force, it is assumed that the situation where the attractive force and the repulsive force are balanced hardly occurs, but if the balanced force is balanced, it does not move. .

  FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram showing an embodiment of the present invention, and FIG. 7A is an explanatory diagram showing an example of the walking speed of the evacuees considering the crowd density. In the evacuation behavior of an unspecified large number of people, the crowd density in the walking space may affect the walking speed. In this model, the horizontal walking speed was inversely proportional to the crowd density.

  In the calculation of the crowd density, it is considered that the density around the target evacuee individual 50g is affected, and as shown in FIG. 7A, it exists in a semicircle having a radius of 3 m with respect to the traveling direction of each evacuee. Other evacuees (indicated by black circles like 50j) were considered as affecting the walking speed. Evacuees outside the semicircle with a radius of 3 m (indicated by white circles like 50h) are not considered for the effect on walking speed.

  FIG. 7B is an explanatory diagram of the walking speed on the stairs. The walking speed on the stairs was represented by the horizontal walking speed on the stairs in consideration of the relationship with the space modeling. As a reduction factor for the horizontal walking speed, 0.8 was adopted with reference to the actual measurement value. In FIG. 7B, the solid line is the horizontal walking speed (the upper limit is 1.0 m / sec), and the broken line is the horizontal walking speed for the staircase.

  FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating an example of an evacuation behavior prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention. In FIG. 1, the evacuation behavior prediction system 1 includes a data input unit 7, a control unit 10, and a data output unit 17. The data input unit 7 inputs “tsunami scenario data” 2, “time data” 3, “tsunami data” 4, “spatial data” 5, and “human data” 6. “Tsunami scenario data” 2 inputs data such as the location of the epicenter and the magnitude of the earthquake.

  “Time data” 3 sets a tsunami occurrence time, a maximum calculation time, a time step interval, a guidance display operating time (guidance display ID, time) and the like based on the “tsunami scenario data” 2. The “tsunami data” 4 is calculated by using a tsunami propagation / upward prediction method (external program) X based on the “tsunami scenario data” 2. The contents of the data include tsunami propagation time, evacuation limit time (by room), tsunami water depth (by time history / point), and flow velocity (by time history / point).

  “Spatial data” 5 is a parameter related to the size, positional relationship, attribute, state, and the like of the space and the accompanying equipment and opening. Specifically, the floor number, floor height, room ID, room space attribute (type), room floor number, room coordinates (three-dimensional), number of openings (number, ID), number of doors (number, ID) ), Number of obstacles (number, ID), number of guidance displays (number, ID), opening ID, room ID with opening, opening coordinates (three-dimensional), door ID, space connection relationship, obstacle ID, obstacle coordinates (three-dimensional), obstacle room ID, guidance display ID, room ID with guidance display, type of guidance display, and the like.

  In the “human data” 6, a parameter specifying each evacuee is set. Specifically, data relating to an evacuee ID, an evacuee type (kind), a walking speed basic value, an initially placed room (room ID), a long-term movement target (room ID), and the like are input.

  The control unit 10 includes a “time data storage unit” 11, a “tsunami data storage unit” 12, a “spatial data storage unit” 13, a “human data storage unit” 16, a “evacuee action position calculation unit” 15, and an “image display”. Part "16. The “time data storage unit” 11 stores / updates the parameter related to the time necessary for predicting the evacuation action, which is input in the “time data” 3.

  The “tsunami data storage unit” 12 stores / updates the parameters related to the obstacle of the evacuation action, which are input in the “tsunami data” 4. In the “tsunami data storage unit” 12, the time transition of the inundation depth and flow speed at each point in the block is stored as data, and the effect of the tsunami run-up on the evacuation behavior at each point is modeled. By sending these data to the “evacuee action position calculation unit” 15, it is possible to evaluate the influence of tsunami propagation and run-up on the evacuation action for each point in the block.

  The impact of tsunami run-up on each floor of the building is evaluated based on the relationship between the tsunami run-up height and the height of each room set in the spatial model. The influence of the tsunami run-up on the evacuation behavior can be arbitrarily set by a plurality of criteria based on the inundation depth and the flow speed, and the criteria can be changed according to the behavior attribute of the refugee.

  The “tsunami data” 4 uses the output of the “tsunami propagation / upward prediction method” calculated separately in the “data input unit” 7, that is, the time history data of the inundation depth and flow speed at each point. The “tsunami propagation and run-up prediction method” may be a method proposed so far, for example, a calculation model studied at the Central Disaster Prevention Council of the Cabinet Office. However, since the evacuation behavior prediction according to the present invention is intended for detailed evacuation behavior at the block level, it is necessary to reproduce the layout of the buildings in the target site. For this reason, the space from the vicinity of the earthquake source to the block to be evaluated is divided with a mesh. When modeling a space, it is possible to predict tsunami propagation that reproduces the layout of buildings in the block by subdividing the mesh division of the space around the block to be evaluated .

  The “spatial data storage unit” 13 includes a spatial possession data storage unit 13a, a guide display possession data storage unit 13b, an obstacle possession data storage unit 13c, and a door possession data storage unit 13d. The “spatial data storage unit” 13 stores and updates the parameters regarding the dimensions, positional relationship, attributes, state, and the like of the space and the equipment and openings that are input in the “spatial data” 5.

  The “spatial data storage unit” sets a spatial condition used for prediction of evacuation behavior, and models the spatial configuration with a room surrounded by line segments (walls) and a door connecting them. Rooms with different floors are connected by a staircase that connects multiple floors, and the height from the ground for each room is given as information. In the present invention, the spatial connection between a plurality of buildings is defined as a virtual room using the same method as that for a room in the building, with the outdoor passage connecting between the building in the block to be evaluated being built. Model. In this way, by setting a block in the street connecting each factory, the range of evacuation prediction is expanded and modeled.

  In the “spatial data storage”, an area occupied by obstacles for evacuation such as furniture and furniture is set. Evacuees evacuate to the exit of each room avoiding obstacles such as furniture and furniture in the space. In the case of evacuation against a tsunami, it is assumed that furniture and fixtures fall down due to the occurrence of an earthquake and cannot be used for evacuation. Therefore, an evacuation route that cannot be used due to the fall of furniture or fixtures is given as data in the data input unit.

  In the “spatial data storage unit”, in order to enable evacuation between a plurality of buildings, a specific room of the building that is the final evacuation site in the plurality of buildings is set. The specific room in the building of the final evacuation site can be set arbitrarily from the room where the spatial data is set, and a plurality of rooms can be set. It is effective to set the specific room in the building at the final evacuation site for tsunami evacuation in consideration of the tsunami run-up effect on the higher floors of the building that are less susceptible to the tsunami. Since the evacuation of evacuees from a plurality of buildings concentrates in a specific room in the final evacuation site building, the number of evacuees is expected to increase. For this reason, it is necessary to set the number of people who can stay in a specific room in the building of the final evacuation site, but this value is obtained by giving the upper limit of the number of people per unit floor area as data. Can be set indirectly.

  The “human data storage unit” 16 includes an evacuee possession data storage unit 16a. In the “human data storage unit” 16, each evacuee input in the “human data” 6 is specified, and parameters relating to walking speed, movement target, movement state, and the like are stored and updated. In the “human data storage unit” 16, the walking speed, the area occupied by the refugee, and the priority order when selecting the movement target are set in advance as evacuation behavior attributes.

  Depending on the change in the time history of the evacuation action, the movement target is the final movement at the block level along with the short-term movement target in the current space (for example, an exit door, a guide light, etc. as shown in FIG. 5). Set long-term movement targets that indicate specific evacuation sites (such as a specific room in a specific building). The long-term movement target may be only one place in the target block, but may be set at a plurality of places at the same time. In the case of setting at a plurality of locations, rules regarding which movement target the refugee selects are determined in advance (for example, a target closer to the position of the refugee is given priority).

  The “time data storage unit” 11, “tsunami data storage unit” 12, “spatial data storage unit” 13, and “human data storage unit” 14 shown in FIG. 1 function as storage means of the control unit 10. Yes.

  The “evacuee action position calculation unit” 15 determines the position of a certain evacuee after the next time step from the “time data” 3, “tsunami data” 4, “spatial data” 5, and “human data” 6. This is the part to calculate. The “evacuee action position calculation unit” 15 has functions of a plane part position calculation 15 a and a staircase position calculation 15 b. As shown in FIG. 6, the position of the refugee is determined by the distance between the current position of the individual refugee and the distance to the wall and the target exit, the distance to other refugees in the vicinity, and the calculated time step. It is calculated based on the movement distance.

The information regarding the position of the refugee calculated by the “evacuee action position calculation unit” 15 is accumulated in other refugee data and the time history, the accumulation of the evacuation completion time and the number of evacuation completion persons, the number of people staying in a certain space Is written in the data file 19 as a transition of At the same time, the information calculated by the “evacuee action position calculation unit” 15 is sent to the “image display unit” 20 together with “spatial data”, “tsunami data”, etc. The trajectory of the flow of evacuation behavior, that is, the trajectory of the evacuation behavior of the specific refugee can be visually confirmed.

  A data output unit 17 outputs a data file 18 and a data file 19. In the data file 18, the evacuee movement status (by time history and room), the locus of the evacuation behavior of the specific evacuee, and the like are written. Further, as described above, the data file 19 includes the evacuation completion time (by refugee), the cumulative number of evacuation completers (time history), the number of visitors (by time history and space), the number of people passing through {time history / door ( Stairs) etc.} are written. The evacuation behavior prediction system shown in FIG. 1 can change the behavior of refugees according to the room attributes when a tsunami occurs. The configuration in FIG. 1 also corresponds to the second evacuation behavior prediction method of the present invention.

  FIG. 2 is an explanatory view showing an embodiment of the present invention. With reference to FIG. 2, the data items handled by each data storage unit described with reference to FIG. In this example, the movement of the evacuees in the space of the living room 40, the corridor 42, the doors 44k, 44n, 44m, and the stairs 48 is targeted.

(A) Space possession data 21
(1) “Room ID”, “Room floor”, “Space composition coordinates”, “Number of openings”, “Number of doors”, “Number of obstacles”, “Number of guidance display” are the data input section 7 Is an item given by (2) The “room space attribute” is an item which is given from the data input unit 7 and is updated based on the guidance display possession data 22 during the execution of the calculation. (3) “Tsunami state” is an item given from the tsunami data. (4) “Number of stays” is an item calculated based on the number of people in the room. (5) “Number of persons unable to evacuate” stores the number of persons in the room who are unable to evacuate due to the tsunami.

(B) Guide display holding data 22
(1) “Guidance display ID”, “Room ID with guidance display”, “Position coordinates (three-dimensional)”, “Type of guidance display”, and “Contents of guidance display” are items given from the data input unit. is there. (2) “State of guidance display” and “Contents of guidance display” are items determined from time data.

(C) Evacuee possession data 23
(1) The “evacuee ID”, “evacuee type”, and “long-term movement target” are given from the data input unit 7 of FIG. (2) “Staying room” and “room staying time” are items calculated and determined based on the space possession data 21 and the time data 3. (3) “Operation” is an item indicating the state of the evacuee's operation, and is determined based on the data of the space possession data 21 and the guidance display possession data 22. (4) “Short-term movement target” is an item indicating a movement target in the space, and is an item determined based on the space possession data 21 and the guidance display possession data 22. (5) “Rooms that have passed in the past” and “Doors that have passed in the past” are stored as a history of rooms and doors that have passed since the start of evacuation. (6) “Position coordinates (three-dimensional)” is an item calculated by the evacuee action position calculation unit 15. (7) “Walking speed” is an item calculated based on the “evacuee type” of the human data 6, the space possession data 21, and other refugee possession data of the space.

  FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing a procedure for calculating an evacuee action position. Next, this flowchart will be described. S11: Evacuation action position calculation processing for each evacuee is started. S12: The spatial data is read only for the data related to the space where the evacuee is currently located. S13: Read tsunami data only for data related to the space where the evacuees are currently located. S14: Read evacuee possession data (human data) other than the evacuees. In this case as well, only data related to the space where the corresponding evacuee is present is processed. S15: The position coordinates are updated. S16: Update human data. S17: Update the spatial data. S18: The time step is updated by adding one step. S19: Return. FIG. 3 corresponds to the evacuation behavior prediction method according to the first embodiment of the present invention.

  8-18 is a figure which shows embodiment of this invention. FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an example of a target of evacuation behavior prediction according to the present invention. FIG. 8 shows the site of the entire factory of the target facility 30, 30 a indicates the boundary line near the coast of the target facility 30, and 35 to 37 indicate the state of tsunami propagation. 8 (1) shows the tsunami situation 15 minutes after the earthquake, FIG. 8 (2) shows the tsunami situation 19 minutes after the earthquake, and FIG. 8 (3) shows the tsunami situation 20 minutes after the earthquake. The progress tsunami situation 37 is shown.

  9-12 is explanatory drawing which shows the example of application (case 1-case 4) of the concrete evacuation simulation with respect to a tsunami. 9 to 12 correspond to the factory arrangements of FIGS. 13 and 16. The target facility 30 is set with factories A to F, warehouse G, guard building H, and first final evacuation site from the tsunami (previously known to employees as a defined final evacuation site). An office building 31 is installed. The final evacuation site is set at an arbitrary location in the office building 31. In addition, as shown in FIG. 16, the factory D (the number 32 shown in the figure) has a second final evacuation site (the final evacuation site specially set as a countermeasure against the tsunami and newly communicated to the employee). Is set. The final evacuation place is set at an arbitrary place in the factory D (illustrated number 32). When the factory D is set as the second final evacuation site 32, an outdoor evacuation staircase is added to the factory D.

  Between the factories A to F, the warehouse G, the guard building H, and the office building 31, vertical streets 33a to 33g and horizontal streets 34a to 34f are provided as communication passages. A block is made up of facilities such as factories surrounded by each street. Then, the streets connecting the factories constitute a block, and the evacuation prediction model is expanded to perform evacuation prediction at the block level.

In the embodiment of the present invention, the facility to which the evacuation simulation is applied is, for example, a production facility having a plurality of buildings (factories, warehouses, office buildings, etc.) located in the gulf area. The site area is 120,000 m ² (400 m × 300 m), the total floor area is 66,000 m ² , and the target number of people (the number of employees) is 600. It is assumed that 600 employees are evacuated to a building that is the final evacuation site as a tsunami countermeasure when an earthquake occurs.

  Factory A has one storey (height 10m) and has 30 employees. Factory B has two stories (height 15m) and the number of employees is 25 on the first floor and 25 on the second floor, for a total of 50 people. Factory C has 2 stories (10m in height), and the number of employees is 100 on the first floor, 50 on the second floor, a total of 150 people. Factory D has 3 stories (height 20m) and the number of employees is 20 on the 1st floor, 40 on the 2nd and 3rd floors, a total of 60 people. Factory E has two stories (height 20m) and the number of employees is 25 on the first floor and 25 on the second floor, for a total of 50 people. Factory F is 2 stories (10m high), and the number of employees is 50 on the 1st floor, 70 on the 2nd floor, and a total of 120 people. The office building 31 is 4 stories (height 20m), and the number of employees is 40 on the 1st floor and 120 people on the 2nd to 4th floors, a total of 160 people. The guard building H is one story (height 5m) and has 10 employees. The warehouse G is 2 stories (height 15m), but there are no resident employees.

  In the embodiment of the present invention, the following cases are set and examined. (B) No special measures are taken, and only one location on the third floor of the office building 31 is set as the final evacuation site. The setting of the evacuation site corresponds to FIG. At this time, the case where evacuation is started after 10 minutes from the occurrence of the earthquake is Case 1 (FIG. 9), and the case where evacuation is started after 5 minutes from the occurrence of the earthquake is Case 2 (FIG. 10). Further, in the characteristic diagram of the number of evacuation completed / the number of deaths, case 1 corresponds to FIG. 14 and case 2 corresponds to FIG.

  (B) As a tsunami evacuation measure, the third floor of the factory D is added as a final evacuation site, and two final evacuation sites are set together with the final evacuation site of the office building 31. FIG. 16 corresponds to the setting of the final evacuation site. At this time, the case where evacuation is started 10 minutes after the occurrence of the earthquake is Case 3 (FIG. 11), and the case where evacuation is started 5 minutes after the occurrence of the earthquake is Case 4 (FIG. 12). Further, in the characteristic diagram of the number of evacuation completed / the number of deaths, the case 3 corresponds to FIG. 17 and the case 4 corresponds to FIG.

(A) Case 1
FIG. 9 shows an example in which evacuation is started 10 minutes after one final evacuation site (one room on the third floor of the office building 31). Black dots scattered in each street and office building 31 indicate evacuees. Fig. 9 (1) shows the situation after 15 minutes from the earthquake, Fig. 9 (2) shows the situation after 19 minutes, and Fig. 9 (3) shows the situation after 20 minutes. Yes.

  Regarding the example of Case 1, referring to the characteristic diagram of the number of people who completed evacuation / number of deaths in Fig. 14, more than 200 employees evacuated when 15 minutes have passed since the earthquake occurred (5 minutes have passed since the start of evacuation). Has ended. At about 19 minutes after the earthquake occurred (9 minutes after the start of evacuation), tsunami deaths began, and at 20 minutes after the earthquake occurred (10 minutes after the start of evacuation), 174 deaths occurred. Reached the name. At the time when 20 minutes have passed since the earthquake, 426 employees, equivalent to more than 2/3 of all employees, have finished evacuation.

(B) Case 2
FIG. 10 shows an example in which evacuation is started after 5 minutes after one final evacuation site (one room on the third floor of the office building 31). Fig. 10 (1) shows the situation after 15 minutes from the earthquake, Fig. 10 (2) shows 19 minutes after the earthquake, and Fig. 10 (3) shows the situation after 20 minutes. Yes. Next, for the example of Case 2, refer to the characteristic diagram of the number of evacuation completed / number of dead in FIG.

  At the time when 10 minutes have passed since the earthquake (5 minutes have passed since the start of evacuation), more than 200 employees have finished evacuation. At the time when 15 minutes have passed since the earthquake (10 minutes have passed since the start of evacuation), more than 400 employees have finished evacuation. At around 19 minutes after the earthquake (14 minutes after the start of evacuation), tsunami deaths began, and at 20 minutes (15 minutes after the evacuation), 25 deaths occurred. Name. At the time when 20 minutes have passed since the occurrence of the earthquake, 575 employees corresponding to almost all employees have finished evacuation.

  In the case 1 and case 2, the building where the final evacuation site is set is one place in the office building 31. Therefore, as indicated by the arrows in FIG. Go out on the street and move in the direction of the office building 31. For this reason, it is predicted that the streets will overflow with employees and it will be difficult for each employee to move as described with reference to FIGS. In particular, the lateral street 34a leading to the office building 31 and the street 33h at the entrance of the office building 31 are congested.

  Comparing FIGS. 14 and 15, if the evacuation start time after the occurrence of the earthquake is advanced, the evacuation of the employee to the building where the preset final evacuation place is set after the same time after the occurrence of the earthquake. The number of people increases and the number of deaths also decreases. That is, even if there is only one building where the final evacuation site is set, it is possible to suppress the occurrence of a certain amount of human damage by the initial evacuation activity after the occurrence of the earthquake. However, as described above, a large number of employees evacuate to one final evacuation site at a time, which increases the density of employees in the street and makes it difficult to move. For this reason, there is a problem that it takes time to move to the building where the final evacuation site is set.

  In cases 3, 3 and 4, in order to solve such problems, the final evacuation site is set as an arbitrary place in factory D as a countermeasure against the tsunami, and the final evacuation site is set at two places. is there. In this way, in cases 3 and 4, the movement direction of employees to the street after the earthquake and the building where the final evacuation site is set is distributed in two directions to reduce congestion. .

(A) Case 3
FIG. 11 shows an example in which evacuation is started 10 minutes after two buildings where the final evacuation sites (one room on the third floor of the office building 31 and one room on the third floor of the factory D) are set. ing. Black dots scattered in each street, office building 31 and factory D (32) indicate evacuees. Fig. 11 (1) shows the situation after 15 minutes from the earthquake, Fig. 11 (2) shows 19 minutes after the earthquake, and Fig. 11 (3) shows the situation after 20 minutes. Yes.

  Referring to the characteristic diagram of the number of evacuations completed / number of deaths in the case 3 example, more than 400 employees evacuated 15 minutes after the earthquake occurred (5 minutes after the start of evacuation). Has ended. In office building 31 and factory D, approximately 200 employees are dispersed and evacuated. At about 19 minutes after the earthquake occurred (9 minutes after the start of evacuation), the deaths due to the tsunami began to appear, and at the time 20 minutes after the occurrence of the earthquake (10 minutes after the start of evacuation), there were 3 deaths. It has become a name. After 20 minutes from the earthquake, about 220 employees are evacuated to the office building 31 and about 380 employees are evacuated to the factory D. At the time when 18 minutes have elapsed since the earthquake, almost all employees have been evacuated.

(B) Case 4
FIG. 12 shows an example in which evacuation is started 5 minutes after two final evacuation sites (one room on the third floor of the office building 31 and one room on the third floor of the factory D). Fig. 12 (1) shows the situation after 15 minutes from the earthquake, Fig. 12 (2) shows 19 minutes after the earthquake, and Fig. 12 (3) shows the situation after 20 minutes. Yes. Next, for the case 4 example, refer to the characteristic diagram of the number of evacuation completed / number of deaths in FIG.

  At the time when 10 minutes have passed since the earthquake (5 minutes have passed since the start of evacuation), more than 400 employees have finished evacuation. In the office building 31 and the final evacuation site in the factory D, approximately 200 employees are dispersed and evacuated. Almost all employees have finished evacuation when 18 minutes have passed since the earthquake (13 minutes have passed since the start of evacuation). In this example, there were no deaths from the tsunami. About 220 people are evacuated to the office building 31 and about 380 people are evacuated to the factory D.

  As described above, in the cases 3 and 4 in which the buildings where the final evacuation sites are set are set in the office building 31 and the factory D, the buildings where the final evacuation sites are set are the buildings of the office building 31. The number of deaths is lower than in case 1 and case 2 with only one place. As indicated by the arrows in FIG. 16, the movement direction of employees on the street is distributed between the office building 31 and the factory D (32). For this reason, as compared with the case where the final evacuation place is set only at one place of the office building 31 as shown in FIG. 13, the congestion on the street is alleviated and the employees are moved quickly.

  Whether the employee evacuates to the first final evacuation site or the second final evacuation site is determined in advance in factory units in consideration of the distance to the final evacuation site, the number of people accommodated, etc. Can be decided. In this case, the plant can be divided into two groups and evacuated to different final evacuation sites. For example, as shown in FIG. 16, an employee of factory E can determine whether the exit (door) close to his / her workplace is the first final evacuation site or the second final evacuation site. The evacuation destination is decided.

  When a large number of employees are evacuated in a short time to a building where one or two evacuation sites are set as shown in FIGS. 13 and 16, as described above, Such short-term movement target setting and long-term movement target setting to the final evacuation site are effective in reducing congestion.

  As described above, the present invention has the following three features. (1) A “space attribute” parameter is given to the spatial data, and the refugee on the model can take this parameter and determine the evacuation behavior. (2) When the space attribute is “temporary standby place”, temporarily wait in the space and receive a new guidance display, or take action that resumes movement after a certain period of time. Can express. (3) Information regarding whether or not evacuation guidance measures (emergency broadcasts, etc.) have been implemented is given to the spatial data as a “guidance display” parameter, and refugees on the model can determine the evacuation behavior by incorporating this parameter. it can.

  By using the evacuation behavior prediction method of the present invention, (1) it is possible to visually and quantitatively confirm the evacuation safety when an earthquake occurs in a certain facility. (2) It is possible to verify the effectiveness of evacuation guidance measures such as emergency broadcasting and guidance signs. (3) It can also be used for temporary standby space and placement planning. (4) Not only the floor evacuation but also the entire evacuation situation can be reproduced.

  The above description is for a block containing production facilities located on the shore. However, the evacuation behavior prediction system and the evacuation behavior prediction method of the present invention are not limited to a block including such a production facility, and are applied to evacuation behavior prediction in a block where a plurality of buildings are constructed in the gulf area. can do.

  As described above, the present invention provides an evacuation behavior prediction system and an evacuation behavior prediction method configured to change an evacuee's behavior according to a space attribute when a disaster occurs.

It is a block diagram which shows the whole structure of embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows embodiment of this invention. It is a conceptual diagram of space modeling. It is explanatory drawing which shows the selection rule of the short-term movement target of self-refugee. It is a conceptual diagram regarding a moving direction and position determination of an evacuee. It is explanatory drawing which shows the walking speed which considered crowd density. It is explanatory drawing which shows embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows embodiment of this invention. It is a characteristic view which shows embodiment of this invention. It is a characteristic view which shows embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows embodiment of this invention. It is a characteristic view which shows embodiment of this invention. It is a characteristic view which shows embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows the structure of a simulation model.

Explanation of symbols

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 ... Evacuation action prediction system, 2 ... Tsunami scenario data, 3 ... Time data, 4 ... Tsunami data, 5 ... Spatial data, 6 ... Human data, 7 ... Data input unit, 10 ... control unit, 11 ... time data storage unit, 12 ... tsunami data storage unit, 13 ... spatial data storage unit, 14 ... human data storage unit, 15 ...・ Evacuee action position calculation unit, 16 ... image display unit, 17 ... data output unit, 18, 19 ... output data file, 30 ... target facility, 31 ... office building (No. 1) the building where the last evacuation site is set), 32... The building where the second evacuation site is set (factory D), 40... Room, 41, 42. ..Walls, 44 ... doors, 45 ... guide lights, 46 ... exits, 47 ... attached rooms, 8 ... Staircase, 49 ... stairs, 50 ... evacuees, A~F ··· factory, G ··· warehouse, H ··· guard building.

Claims (4)

Tsunami scenario data including epicenter location and magnitude, time data including tsunami generation time and time step interval formed based on the tsunami scenario data, tsunami formed based on the tsunami scenario data and the time data Tsunami data including tsunami water depth and flow velocity in the propagation time and time history, spatial data with three-dimensional coordinates including buildings composed of one or more rooms, doors, passages, stairs and obstacles , evacuation Input means for inputting each data of a person's walking speed, a room where the space data is initially arranged, and human data including an evacuation place ;
Storage means for storing and updating each data input by the input means;
Based on each data stored in the storage means, the doors, stairs, and passages are used as connection information, and the connection information leading to the evacuation site is used as a short-term movement target. Assuming repulsive force, the movement distance corresponding to the walking speed is obtained at each time step, and the time history in the evacuation route from the initially arranged room to the evacuation site connected by the connection information is obtained. Control means for calculating the movement position of each evacuee ;
Output means for outputting information on the movement position of each evacuee in the time history calculated by the control means,
The tsunami data includes the analysis result of the tsunami run-up height,
The control means specifies a space that is affected by the tsunami run-up in the time history based on the three-dimensional coordinates, the tsunami propagation time, the tsunami water depth, the flow velocity, and the tsunami run-up height in the time history. An evacuation behavior prediction system characterized by this. The spatial data has a plurality of buildings in the facility, and is set by a model of a block in which each building is connected by a street, and the evacuation site is set in an arbitrary room of the plurality of buildings. The evacuation behavior prediction system according to claim 1, wherein the evacuation behavior prediction system is characterized. Entering tsunami scenario data including the location of the epicenter and the magnitude of the earthquake ,
Inputting time data including a tsunami occurrence time and a time step interval formed based on the tsunami scenario data;
Inputting tsunami data including a tsunami propagation time and a tsunami depth in a time history formed based on the tsunami scenario data and the time data ;
Inputting spatial data having a three-dimensional coordinate system including a building composed of an assembly of one or more rooms, doors, passages, stairs, and obstacles ;
Inputting human data including the walking speed of each evacuee, the room where the space data is initially arranged, and the evacuation site ;
Storing and updating the time data in a storage means;
Storing / updating the tsunami data in storage means;
Storing and updating the spatial data in a storage means;
Storing and updating the human data in a storage means;
Based on each data stored in the storage means, the doors, stairs, and passages are used as connection information, and the connection information leading to the evacuation site is used as a short-term movement target. Assuming repulsive force, the movement distance corresponding to the walking speed is obtained at each time step, and the time history in the evacuation route from the initially arranged room to the evacuation site connected by the connection information is obtained. Calculating the movement position of each evacuee ;
Outputting information on the movement position of each evacuee in the calculated time history ;
Consists of
The tsunami data includes an analysis result of the tsunami run-up height, and in the step of calculating the movement position of each evacuee in the time history, the three-dimensional coordinates and the propagation time of the tsunami and the time history An evacuation behavior prediction method characterized by identifying a space affected by the tsunami run-up in the time history based on tsunami water depth, flow velocity, and tsunami run-up height . The spatial data has a plurality of buildings in the facility, and is set by a model of a block that connects each building via a street,
The evacuation behavior prediction method according to claim 3 , wherein in the step of inputting the human data, an evacuation place is set in an arbitrary room of the plurality of buildings.