JP4364936B1 - Liquid population estimation system, liquid population estimation method, and liquid population estimation program - Google Patents

Abstract

An object of the present invention is to estimate a liquid population in a specific area such as around a customer-collecting facility with high accuracy.
A communication log storage device for storing a communication log including position information when a radio base station BS and a mobile station communicate with each other, a determination criterion for a plurality of attributes of a customer collection facility, a coefficient for each attribute, Population accommodation facility information storage device 4 that stores the location information of each customer-collecting facility in association with each other, a communication log totaling unit that searches and aggregates the communication logs in this area based on the location information of the estimation target area, and map data From the customer collection facility search means for searching the customer collection facility 1 in the estimation target area, the attribute determination means for determining the attribute of the searched customer collection facility and specifying the coefficient, the communication log total value in the estimation target area and the customer collection Liquidity estimating means for estimating the liquid population existing in the area using the coefficient of the facility as a parameter is provided.
[Selection] Figure 1

Description

  The present invention relates to a fluidity population estimation system, a fluidity population estimation method, and a fluidity population estimation program that can estimate a fluidity population in a specific area with high accuracy using a communication log such as a mobile phone.

  Telecommunications carriers that provide telecommunication services such as mobile phones have infrastructure such as radio base stations to cover areas where communication traffic fluctuates depending on time of day, day of the week, etc., up to a level close to the maximum value. .

  On the other hand, in areas where there are customer gathering facilities such as event venues and sightseeing spots, even if the resident (resident) population is small, the population temporarily flows in at the time of the event or in the sightseeing season, and the communication traffic suddenly increases. There is a peculiarity of rising. For example, as shown in FIG. 12 and FIG. 13, in tourist spots where cherry blossom spots and famous festivals are held, seasons other than the tourist season (FIGS. 12A and 13A) and the tourist season (FIG. 12 (B) and FIG. 13 (B)), there is a difference of 2 to 4 times in the number of mobile phone calls.

  Establishing the above-mentioned infrastructure in anticipation of such peak times is poor in terms of investment efficiency in consideration of other periods of infancy. For this reason, the communication carrier adjusts the direction of the base station antenna or temporarily arranges a base station or a repeater device (wireless relay device) when an event occurs.

  In addition, as disclosed in the following Patent Documents 1 and 2, based on the number of mobile stations (communication terminals such as mobile phones) that have communicated with the radio base station, the area separately from the statistical data such as the national census It has also been proposed to estimate the population within.

  In Patent Document 1, a short-term future prediction of a population distribution is performed by statistically analyzing a value obtained by counting location registration information transmitted from a terminal for each hour and each area (claim 1, paragraph [0005], etc.). ).

  Also, in Patent Document 2, the ownership ratio (share) of mobile stations in a specific area, the number of mobile stations whose location is registered in the radio base station, the number of mobile stations whose main communication destination is the radio base station, etc. Based on this, the population existing in the area is estimated (claims 1, 4-7, paragraphs [0018],] 0022], etc.).

JP 2002-342557 A JP 2002-354517 A

  However, the method disclosed in Patent Document 1 does not take into account the attributes of measurement areas such as sightseeing spots, residential areas, customer-collection facilities, and office districts. To do. In order to improve the accuracy of the estimated value, it is necessary to collect information such as the event holding period, the location of the customer collection facility, the number of visitors, etc. and individually correct it.

  Moreover, since the method of patent document 2 aims at grasping | providing (providing) the congestion condition of customer-collection facilities, such as a theme park, it attaches importance to real-time property, and the precision and convenience as statistical data are not considered. . In other words, Patent Document 2 does not take into account any customer-collecting facilities or regional attributes, but merely estimates how many people are currently there. Therefore, even if such data is accumulated, it is possible to estimate a rough congestion situation for each time zone or day of the week, and it cannot be used as an index for designing the station placement of the communication carrier.

  Here, since the number of visitors to the customer collection facility is announced by the organizer or the manager, this visitor data can also be used as a reference for the above-mentioned temporary response.

  However, since the published visitor data is in the unit of tens of thousands of people or has a wide range, the accuracy is not sufficient to make it a temporary indicator. In addition, it may take several months for the visitor data to be released, making it difficult to respond quickly. In addition, in parks and the like, the visitor data is often not disclosed, and there are some who simply pass through, so there is no valid data itself.

  Also, the proportion of visitors using mobile phones etc. varies greatly depending on the type of event and the attributes of the customer collection facility. For example, even in a stadium, attendee attributes, staying time, use frequency of mobile phones, and calling time vary greatly between professional baseball games, concerts, and used car exhibitions.

  In view of the problems as described above, an object of the present invention is to estimate a liquid population such as around a customer-collecting facility with high accuracy.

In order to achieve the above object, a system according to an aspect of the present invention includes a first storage device, a second storage device, a communication log aggregation unit, a population accommodation facility search unit, an attribute determination unit, a flow And a sex population estimation means.
The first storage device stores a communication log including position information of the mobile station when the radio base station and the mobile station communicate with each other.
The second storage device includes a plurality of attribute determination criteria for population accommodation facilities or population concentration areas (hereinafter collectively referred to as “population accommodation facilities”), coefficients set for each attribute, and positions of each population accommodation facility. Information is stored in association with each other.
The communication log totaling means searches and aggregates the communication logs in this area from the first storage device based on the position information of the estimation target area specified on the map data.
The population accommodation facility retrieval means retrieves the population accommodation facility existing in the estimation target area from the map data.
The attribute determining means determines the attribute of the retrieved population accommodation facility with reference to the determination criterion of the second storage device, and specifies the coefficient of the facility.
The liquidity population estimation means estimates the liquid population existing in the area using the communication log total value in the estimation target area and the coefficient of the population accommodation facility as parameters.

In addition, a liquid population estimation system according to another embodiment of the present invention includes a communication log storage device, a communication log totaling unit, a search unit, and a liquid population estimation unit.
The communication log storage device stores a communication log including position information of the mobile station when the radio base station and the mobile station communicate with each other.
The communication log aggregation means searches for and aggregates communication logs in this area from the first storage device based on the position information of the estimation target area specified on the map data. The search means is based on demographic data. The liquidity population estimation means for retrieving the population data in the estimation target area estimates the liquid population existing in the area using the communication log total value and the population data in the estimation target area as parameters.

A liquid population estimation method according to another embodiment of the present invention is executed by an information processing apparatus including a communication log storage device and a population accommodation facility information storage device.
The communication log storage device stores a communication log including position information of the mobile station when the radio base station and the mobile station communicate with each other.
The population accommodation facility information storage device includes a plurality of attribute determination criteria for population accommodation facilities or population concentration areas (hereinafter collectively referred to as “population accommodation facilities”), coefficients set for each attribute, The positional information is stored in association with each other.
In addition, this method includes a communication log totaling step, a population accommodation facility searching step, an attribute determining step, and a fluidity population estimating step.
In the communication log totaling step, based on the position information of the estimation target area specified on the map data, the communication log in the area is searched and totaled from the first storage device.
In the population accommodation facility search step, a population accommodation facility existing in the estimation target area is searched from the map data.
The attribute determination step determines an attribute of the retrieved population accommodation facility with reference to the determination criterion of the second storage device, and specifies a coefficient of the facility.
In the liquid population estimation step, the liquid population existing in the area is estimated using the communication log total value in the estimation target area and the coefficient of the population accommodation facility as parameters.

In addition, a liquid population estimation program according to an aspect of the present invention causes an information processing apparatus including a communication log storage device and a population accommodation facility information storage device to execute a liquid population estimation processing procedure.
The communication log storage device stores a communication log including position information of the mobile station when the radio base station and the mobile station communicate with each other.
The population accommodation facility information storage device includes a plurality of attribute determination criteria for population accommodation facilities or population concentration areas (hereinafter collectively referred to as “population accommodation facilities”), coefficients set for each attribute, The positional information is stored in association with each other.
In addition, the liquidity population estimation processing procedure includes a communication log tabulation step, a population accommodation facility search step, an attribute determination step, and a fluidity population estimation step.
In the communication log totaling step, based on the position information of the estimation target area specified on the map data, the communication log in the area is searched and totaled from the first storage device.
In the population accommodation facility search step, a population accommodation facility existing in the estimation target area is searched from the map data.
The attribute determination step determines an attribute of the retrieved population accommodation facility with reference to the determination criterion of the second storage device, and specifies a coefficient of the facility.
In the liquid population estimation step, the liquid population existing in the area is estimated using the communication log total value in the estimation target area and the coefficient of the population accommodation facility as parameters.

FIG. 1 is a network configuration diagram of an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing the entire processing steps of the liquid population estimation system according to the embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 3 is a diagram schematically showing the processing steps. FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of a communication log and a totaling result. FIG. 5 is a diagram schematically showing the processing steps. FIG. 6 is a diagram schematically showing the processing steps. FIG. 7 is a diagram schematically illustrating a population accommodation facility information storage unit. FIG. 8 is a diagram schematically showing the processing steps. FIG. 9 is a diagram specifically showing the entire processing steps. FIG. 10 is a table specifically showing the entire processing steps. FIG. 11 is a block diagram showing a schematic configuration of a liquid population estimation system. FIG. 12 is a diagram showing the difference in the number of calls in the sightseeing spot according to time. FIG. 13 is a diagram showing the difference in the number of calls in a tourist spot according to time.

(Outline of Preferred Embodiment of the Present Invention)
The present invention is to make it possible to efficiently execute highly accurate placement design using a geographic information system (GIS). This GIS integrates the management and processing of digitized map (terrain) data and statistical data and location-related data such as attribute information for advanced analysis and analysis, visual It is a system that displays automatically. The GIS includes a database in which map data and other data are associated with each other, and a computer program that searches, analyzes, and displays the information.

  That is, the present invention is constituted by a database that associates a communication log between a base station and a mobile station and map data, and a program that estimates a total population including a fixed population and a liquid population in the antenna cover area of the base station. Is done. If necessary, the net fluid population can be calculated by subtracting the fixed population from the estimated population with reference to statistical data or the like. Here, the fixed population can be tabulated according to the purpose of estimating the liquid population, etc., either the resident population (resident population) included in the statistical data, the working / student population, or a combination thereof.

In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the second storage device is a population accommodation facility, a facility associated as an address or residence of demographic data, and a population concentration facility not associated as an address or residence of demographic data. In addition, a determination criterion and a coefficient are stored for each of the population concentration area (hereinafter collectively referred to as “customer-collection facility”). Here, the “facility associated as the address or residence of demographic data” includes a detached house, an apartment house, a school, an office building as a place of work, and the like.
With such a configuration, a liquid population that cannot be obtained from statistical data can be estimated with high accuracy.

In another preferred embodiment of the present invention, the second storage device stores the determination criterion using different attributes for the time when the event is held at the customer collection facility and the other time.
The attribute determining means determines the attribute of the customer-collecting facility with reference to a determination criterion including the time.
With such a configuration, even in the same or the same kind of customer collection facility, attributes and coefficients can be made different at the time of event holding and other times. This makes it possible to estimate the liquid population in line with the substance.

In another preferred embodiment of the present invention, the second storage device has, as a coefficient for each customer-collecting facility, capacity of the customer-collecting facility, size, average number of visitors, type of facility, indoor / outdoor, average stay time , The type and duration of the event to be held, the predicted number of visitors or the actual number in the past, the time / day when the customer collection facility is open and the time / day when it is not open, and the expected age of visitors Coefficients set based on at least one attribute of layer or group type are stored.
With such a configuration, various customer-collecting facilities can be classified into categories suitable for estimating the liquid population.

In another preferred embodiment of the present invention, an output target area selection receiving unit is further provided. This output target area selection receiving means receives on the map data the selection of the target area for outputting the estimated value of the fluid population.
The fluidity population estimation means outputs the estimated value of the fluidity population for each of the selected output target areas.
With such a configuration, it is possible to output a fluid population in an arbitrary area desired by a user such as a telecommunications carrier regardless of the communication area of the base station or the antenna.

In another preferred embodiment of the present invention, an alternative area extracting means is further provided.
This alternative area extraction means, when the selected output target area includes an area other than the estimation target area (non-estimation area), the area around the non-estimation area from the estimation target area, or the non-estimation area And the area to be estimated that share the same size, area, topography, regional attributes, and population accommodation facility are extracted as alternative areas.
The liquid population estimation means replaces the extracted alternative area with a non-estimation area and outputs an estimated value of the liquid population.
Furthermore, the alternative area extracting means extracts, as an alternative area, an estimation target area that has the same time, non-estimated area, area, terrain, regional attribute, population accommodation facility, and timing.
The estimation target area is based on the coverage area of the base station or antenna, and often does not coincide with the chome character boundaries. Further, it is necessary to prevent the estimation accuracy from being deteriorated no matter how the user or operator designates the analysis target area. Therefore, the above processing is additionally executed for the facilities existing in this non-estimated area, or an alternative facility having the same attribute as the facility in the non-estimated area is identified from the facilities in the estimated area and replaced with the estimated value. Is effective.

In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the first storage device stores a communication log including information on the time at which the radio base station and the mobile station communicated.
The communication log totaling unit totals the communication logs in the estimation target area in time series.
The liquid population estimation means estimates a time-series liquid population distribution.
With such a configuration, the fluid population can be estimated in an arbitrary time zone. As a result, it is possible to estimate the liquid population in an area where the number of communication greatly varies depending on the time of day, and to use it for appropriate placement operation.

In another preferred embodiment of the present invention, an output time unit receiving means is further provided.
The output time unit accepting unit accepts selection of a time unit and / or a period for outputting the estimated value of the fluid population.
The liquid population estimation means estimates the liquid population in the selected output time unit and / or period.
With this configuration, any time unit (seasonal, day of the week, time zone, year, month, day, etc.) or period (○ month ○ day to × month × day, ○ hour ○ minute to × Estimate the liquid population in hours x minutes).

In another preferred embodiment of the present invention, a correction means is further provided. This correction means refers to the address or residence data of the statistical data and corrects by subtracting the resident population from the estimated value of the liquid population calculated for the estimation target area.
With such a configuration, it is not necessary to set the coefficient and attribute determination criteria of population accommodation facilities that have a fixed population such as houses so as not to affect the estimation of the liquid population. This simplifies the estimation process.

In another preferred embodiment of the present invention, the first storage device uses the mobile station as a communication log to make and receive calls from the mobile station, to hand over from another radio base station, to turn on the mobile station, and to send and receive e-mails. The communication log including any one of WEB browser activation, location registration information, and the like is stored.
With this configuration, the number of mobile stations (number of people) can be counted more accurately.

In another preferred embodiment of the present invention, the attribute determination means refers to the second storage device, determines an attribute of an area adjacent to the customer collection facility searched from the estimation target area, and determines the coefficient of the adjacent area. Based on this, the coefficient of the customer collection facility is corrected.
In addition, when the attributes of the plurality of regions included in the estimation target area are different among the plurality of regions adjacent to the customer-collecting facility, the attribute determination unit calculates the coefficient of the customer-collecting facility based on the coefficient for each adjacent region. Identify the corrected coefficients.
The liquid population estimation means estimates the liquid population using a plurality of coefficients of the customer-collecting facilities as parameters.
With such a configuration, it is possible to further improve the estimation accuracy of the liquid population by setting regional attributes and coefficients separately from or in addition to individual population accommodation facilities. For example, for parks, the number of liquid populations, time zones, and the like are often different between an area adjacent to an office district and an area adjacent to a residential area. In view of such circumstances, it is preferable to estimate the fluid population in consideration of the attributes of the area where the population accommodation facility is adjacent.

In another preferred embodiment of the present invention, a third storage device, an event type designation receiving unit, and a second correction unit are further provided.
The third storage device stores information on the types of events that have been held in the past at the customer collection facility, and information on event parties.
The event type designation accepting unit accepts designation of the type of event being held for the customer collection facility searched from the estimation target area.
The second correction means refers to the third storage device, identifies a party related to the event according to the type of the specified event, and corrects by subtracting from the estimated liquid population.
According to such a configuration, traffic control, security, parking lot management, visitor arrangement, store openings, organizers, and cleaning staff can be reflected in the liquid population as needed. The estimation accuracy can be improved.

In another preferred embodiment of the present invention, a reference area extraction unit and an estimation unit are provided.
The reference area extraction means, regarding the insensitive area that does not belong to any communication area of any wireless base station, is either the area around this insensitive area or the insensitive area and its size, terrain, regional attributes, or population accommodation facilities The common reference area is extracted from the map data. The reference area extracting means preferably extracts a reference area having a common area and any one of the dead area, the area, the topography, the regional attributes, and the population accommodation facility.
The estimating means estimates the liquid population in the insensitive area based on the liquid population estimate value in the extracted reference area.
According to such a configuration, it is possible to estimate a liquid population even in a dead area that does not belong to any wireless base station communication area and cannot collect communication logs.

(Details of the embodiment)
Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. As shown in FIG. 1, the liquidity population estimation system 1 of the present invention is configured by a host computer of a management center 2 that manages and manages a plurality of radio base stations BS1 to BS3 installed by a communication carrier. The system 1 is connected to the radio base stations BS1 to BS3 by optical fibers or the like, and can perform high-speed communication with the base station. A plurality of base stations are also connected by optical fibers.

  Each of the radio base stations BS1 to BS3 includes a plurality of antennas directed in different directions, and each antenna is in charge of a communication area. Hereinafter, a radio base station having three antennas will be described as an example. In addition, the expression “radio base station BS” means a plurality of radio base stations BS1 to BS3 unless otherwise specified.

  The liquidity population estimation system 1 of the present embodiment includes a communication log storage device 3 (first storage device) that records a communication log of communication between a mobile station such as a user's mobile phone (not shown) and the radio base station BS, A population accommodation facility information storage device 4 (second storage device) that stores a reference for determining a plurality of attributes of a population accommodation facility such as a house or a commercial facility, position information, a coefficient, and the like is provided.

  The host computer of the base station management center 2 stores each storage device (database, table) 5-8 of customer data of the communication carrier, demographic data collected by the national census, map data, and base station data. I have. These storage devices 5 to 8 may be incorporated in the liquid population estimation system 1 or may be combined with other systems (charging system, placement design simulator, marketing system, etc.). Further, it may be provided in a data center of a communication carrier installed separately from the management center 2 and only necessary data (prefectures, municipalities, etc.) may be acquired when necessary.

(Whole process)
Next, with reference to the flowchart of FIG. 2 and the schematic diagrams of FIG. 3 and subsequent drawings, the entire processing steps of the liquid population estimation system of the present invention will be described. The following processing steps are executed at a predetermined cycle.

  First, as shown in FIG. 3A, the coordinate data on the map, the position information of the radio base station BS, the information of the direction of the antenna, the coverage of the antenna, the base station and the mobile phone Spatial connection processing (GIS: linking individual data based on latitude and longitude) using the communication log with. As a result, the “base station information with actual use information” (A1) shown in FIG. 3B is output (S1). That is, these pieces of information are stored in the storage device 3 in association with the map data.

  Specifically, from the base station BS ID, the base station position information associated with the IDs of the plurality of antennas ANT1 to ANT3, the antenna cover area information, and the communication log obtained and accumulated from the base station Station information (antenna) information and usage information such as communication date and time are extracted and recorded in association with map data. As a result, map data having a multilayer structure in which various data layers are layered on the basic map data is generated.

  Here, for example, as shown in FIG. 4, the communication log includes 12 digits of year / month / day / hour / minute / second, 5 digits of base station ID, 1 digit of antenna ID, and mobile phone number as identification information of the mobile station. It consists of a string of 30 digits / symbols consisting of 11 digits and one digit of a code indicating the type of actual use (incoming / outgoing call, mail transmission / reception, location registration information, etc.). That is, the base station position, the coverage area (cell) of the base station, and the operation information of the base station (whether it has been responsible for the number of communications) are linked.

  Next, based on the information of A1 described above and the information of the coverage of each antenna stored in the base station data storage device 8, the “base station antenna coverage range with actual use information” shown in FIG. (A2) is output (S2).

  Next, as shown in FIG. 5A, based on the information of A2 and the mobile phone user number conversion parameter, the “mobile phone user number distribution chart” (A3) shown in FIG. 5B is output. (S3). This parameter is obtained by dividing the total number of communications in the estimation target period (one week, one month, etc.) by the average number of communications per person (one unit) calculated per day.

  Next, as shown in FIG. 5 (B), based on the information of A3 described above and the mobile phone subscriber number information extracted from the customer data storage device 5 based on the address, it is shown in FIG. 5 (C). A “liquidity mobile phone user distribution map” (A4) is output (S4). In this step, the liquid population other than the resident is calculated by excluding data communicated by the user at home or the like from all the communication records. Even at this point, the liquid population in the specific area can be calculated with high accuracy. However, in the present embodiment, the accuracy is further improved by executing the following correction processing in consideration of the attributes of the population accommodation facility and the like. .

  That is, as shown in FIG. 6 (A), based on the information of A4 and the population accommodation facility information, the “liquidity mobile phone user number correction diagram” (A5) shown in FIG. 6 (B) is obtained. Output (S5). That is, referring to map data and building data, a population accommodation facility in a cover area of a specific antenna, which is an estimation target area, is extracted, and an attribute of each facility is determined. In the illustrated example, eight facilities such as an outdoor stadium (n1) and a medium-sized lake (n2) are extracted.

  Here, FIG. 7 shows an example of the condition for determining the attribute of the population accommodation facility and the coefficient set for each attribute. A plurality of attributes are set according to, for example, the length of stay (over 3 hours or less), whether indoor or outdoor, and the size (floor area, sales floor area, capacity, size), etc. . In addition to buildings, population accommodation facilities include areas where people gather, such as parks and lakes. As illustrated in FIG. 7, the population accommodation facility includes a facility (house, office building as a place of work) associated with an address or residence of demographic data such as a national census, and an address or residence of demographic data. And any facilities (parks, stadiums, etc.) that are not associated with each other.

As will be described later, since houses, office buildings, schools, etc. are facilities that contain a fixed population associated with demographic data, communication logs in these facilities are excluded from the beginning when estimating the liquid population. It is also possible to do.
However, it is difficult to uniformly exclude houses and the like, and it has to be handled individually by manual, which is inefficient.
For this reason, in this embodiment, all population accommodation facilities (communication logs) are included in the analysis target, and by adjusting the coefficient etc., individual correspondence is avoided, and both efficiency and improvement in analysis accuracy are realized. ing.

  On the other hand, there is no useful statistical data as well as public data for facilities not associated with the latter demographic data. For sightseeing spots, stadiums, etc., organizers may announce the number of visitors, but this is not a useful level for placement design. Therefore, as in this embodiment, statistical processing is performed with high accuracy by previously categorizing a large number of population accommodation facilities into a plurality of attributes and setting coefficients according to criteria such as staying time that greatly affects the number of communications. It is possible to collect and accumulate easy-to-use data.

  In addition, as exemplified in the prior art, in a tourist spot or the like, the liquidity population varies greatly between the tourist season and the quiet season. In stadiums, gymnasiums, concert halls, etc., there is a large difference in the liquid population between the day the event is held and the other days. For this reason, in such a facility, it is preferable to set a determination criterion by using different attributes for the time when an event is held in each facility and the other time. In addition to the criteria listed in Fig. 7, the average number of visitors, the type and duration of the event being held, the predicted number of visitors or the past actual number, the hours / days and business hours at which the customer collection facility is open It may be set on the basis of at least one attribute such as a different time / day, an expected visitor's age group or group type.

  When attributes are determined and coefficients are specified for all the extracted facilities, as shown in FIG. 8 (A), based on statistical data such as mobile phone penetration rate, the “liquidity population estimation diagram” shown in FIG. 8 (B) (A6) is output (S6). That is, the mobile phone penetration rate (%) of all carriers in Japan or the target area, the market share (%) of this carrier's mobile phone, and the nighttime population (resident population) or daytime population in the target area Based on statistical data such as (person), the liquid population in this area is estimated from the above “number of mobile phone users”.

  Finally, the liquid population in this estimation target area is output in units of designated analysis areas as shown in FIG. 8C (S7). Here, as the analysis area unit, any one or more units such as “town (large character) world”, “chome (character) world”, “1 km mesh”, and “500 m mesh” can be selected. In addition, a selection of a time unit and / or a period for outputting an estimated value of the liquid population from the user is received (output time unit reception function), and the liquid population is estimated by the selected output time unit and period. It may be.

  Among the above processing steps, the correction process (S5 to S7) of the fluid population according to the extracted attributes of the population accommodation facility will be described in more detail with reference to the specific examples of FIGS. In this example, the total number of communications per month is 310,000 times, the mobile phone penetration rate is 80%, and the market share of the telecommunications carrier is 20%.

First, the coefficient of each facility shown in the column (a) of FIG. 9 is set in advance in accordance with the above-described facility attributes (indoor, outdoor, capacity, etc.). The correction coefficient in column (b) is a correction of these coefficients so that the sum of the coefficients of the eight extracted facilities is 1. This setting is effective not only for events, but also for population flow simulations assuming changes in population accommodation facilities such as store development and the selection and construction of shelters in the event of a disaster.

  The number of customers for each facility in the column (c) is calculated by multiplying the correction coefficient by 310,000 in total. This number of customers is synonymous with the number of mobile phones. Then, by dividing this number of customers by the market share of 20%, the number of mobile phone users (number of customers) of all communication carriers can be calculated (column d).

  Finally, the mobile phone penetration rate of 80% is divided to calculate the total number of visitors per month for each facility in column (e). For example, in the house 1, since the total number of visitors per month is 163, when divided by 30 days, the number of visitors is about 5.4 per day, and it can be easily estimated that they are families and visitors. In addition, since the stadium 1 has about 1.63 million people per month, it can be estimated that 54,000 people will visit per day.

  FIG. 10 shows the estimated value of the total number of people associated with the position information of each facility. As shown in FIG. 10 (A), in the entire antenna coverage area, the number of communications per month is 310,000. However, as described above, it is prorated according to the attributes of each facility and estimated (corrected). ), The variation in the area can be easily grasped.

  In addition, as shown in FIG. 10D, when an area other than the estimation target area (non-estimation area) is included in the designated analysis (output) target area, non-estimation is performed from the estimation target area. An area around the area, or an area that is common to any non-estimated area and area / terrain / regional attribute is extracted as an alternative area. That is, the estimation target area is based on the coverage area of the base station antenna, and often does not coincide with the chome character boundary or the like. Further, it is necessary to prevent the estimation accuracy from being deteriorated no matter how the user or operator designates the analysis target area. Therefore, in the present embodiment, the above-described processing is additionally executed for facilities existing in this non-estimated area, or an alternative facility having the same attribute as the facility in the non-estimated area is identified from the facilities in the estimated area, and the Substituted with estimated values. In the examples of FIGS. 10 (C) and (D), there are two small-scale apartment houses (apartments, etc.) in the non-estimated area, so these population-converted values (total 2,750 people / month) Add up and output the liquid population in the analysis area.

Next, a schematic configuration of the liquid population estimation system 1 will be described with reference to the functional block diagram of FIG.
The fluidity population estimation system 1 includes a computer such as a host computer, a workstation, and a PC, and includes a control device 10, a storage device 11, an input / output interface (I / F) 12, an input / output device 13, a communication device 14, and the like. The conventional well-known hardware is provided. This hardware includes, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit), MPU (Micro Processing Unit), RAM (Random Access Memory), ROM (Read Only Memory), DSP (Digital Signal Processor), FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array), It is selected from ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit), NIC (Network Interface Card), WNIC (Wireless NIC), modem, optical disk, magnetic disk, flash memory, LED display, keyboard, mouse and the like.

  The storage device 11 includes a data storage area 11A for storing the communication log storage device 3 (see FIG. 1 and FIG. 4) and the population accommodation facility information storage device 4 (see FIG. 1 and FIG. 7). And a program storage area 11B for storing a computer program for executing processing to be described later. Any storage area is a certain area secured in the storage device 11.

  In the program storage area 11B, as shown in FIG. 11B, a communication log totaling means 15, a population accommodation facility searching means 16, an attribute determining means 17, a liquidity population estimating means (correcting means) 18, and an output target area selection The receiving means 19 is stored. Each of these means is an independent program, routine, module, or the like, and each function is exhibited by being loaded from the storage device 11 to the RAM work area and executed by the control device 10.

  Based on the position information of the estimation target area specified on the map data, the communication log totaling means 15 searches the communication log storage device 3 for the communication logs in this area in time series and totals them.

  The population accommodation facility searching means 16 searches the map data for a population accommodation facility existing in the estimation target area (see S5 in FIG. 2).

  The attribute determination unit 17 determines the attribute of the searched population accommodation facility with reference to the determination criteria of the population accommodation facility storage device 4 shown in FIG. 7, and specifies the coefficient of the facility. In addition, when changing an attribute depending on whether the event is held or not, the attribute of the customer collection facility is determined with reference to a determination criterion including the time. If the population accommodation facility extracted from the estimation target area does not correspond to any attribute, or if the required data cannot be obtained and the attribute cannot be determined, It is preferable to specify the coefficient based on the attributes of other facilities that are similar in size and height to the facility.

  In addition, it is preferable to set a coefficient in association with regional attributes such as residential areas, commercial areas, and tourist areas, and correct the coefficient of the population accommodation facility with a coefficient based on the attribute of the adjacent area. In addition, if the population accommodation facility is adjacent to multiple areas, such as a stadium or a large park, and their regional attributes are different, the facility is divided into multiple areas for each adjacent area. It is preferable to specify a plurality of coefficients obtained by correcting the coefficient of the customer-collecting facility based on the coefficient for each adjacent area.

  The liquidity population estimation means 18 estimates a liquid population existing in the area using the communication log total value in the estimation target area and the coefficient of the population accommodation facility as parameters. The estimated value is output for each output target area selected by the output target area selection receiving means 19 (see S7 in FIG. 2). According to the designation (selection) of the user, it is possible to estimate a time-series liquid population distribution, or to estimate a liquid population using a plurality of coefficients of customer-collecting facilities as parameters.

  Here, with reference to the address or residence data of existing statistical data such as the national census, the resident population may be subtracted from the estimated value of the liquid population calculated for the estimation target area. For example, in the examples of FIGS. 9 and 10, since most of the facilities such as the house 1, the house 2, and the apartment house 1 are considered to have a resident population, these numbers are subtracted. In the present embodiment, this correction process is not necessary because the setting of the coefficient for each population accommodation facility takes into account how much the resident population (non-liquid population) is included.

  In addition, the liquid population estimation means 18 also has an alternative area extraction function. As shown in FIG. 10, when the selected output target area includes an area other than the estimation target area (non-estimation area), this function is an area around the estimation target area to the non-estimation area. Alternatively, the non-estimated area and the area / topography / regional attribute, or an area where any of these elements and time are in common is extracted as an alternative area. For example, areas and facilities where the liquid population varies greatly depending on the season, such as ski resorts, beaches, and their surrounding facilities, are replaced with the time factor in addition to the size of the non-estimated area. By extracting the area, the estimation accuracy can be further improved.

  Then, the liquid population estimation means 18 replaces the extracted alternative area with a non-estimation area and outputs an estimated value of the liquid population.

  The output target area selection receiving means 19 receives the selection of the target area for outputting the estimated value of the fluid population on the map data (coordinates).

(Other preferred functions)
In addition to the functions described above, the present invention can have the following functions, for example.

(Liquidity population estimation function in dead areas)
This function is effective when it is desired to estimate a liquid population in a dead area that does not belong to any communication area of any radio base station. Specifically, this function is realized by a reference area extraction unit and an estimation unit. The reference area extracting means is a function for extracting from the map data a communication area around the target insensitive area or a reference area in which any one of the insensitive area, the area, the terrain, and the region attribute is common. It is preferable that the reference area extracting unit extracts a reference area having the same timing as any of the insensitive area and the size, like the non-estimated area. The estimating means is a function for estimating the liquid population in the insensitive area based on the above-mentioned estimated liquid population value in the reference area (see the column (e) in FIG. 9). In the insensitive area, there are cases where there are no base stations in the vicinity, and there are cases where base stations are installed but radio waves do not reach locally due to shielding, etc. Useful in case. If there is an event or the like in a non-residential area, the communication log can be collected by a base station temporarily arranged, so that the above-described embodiment can be applied as it is.

(Correction function for event parties)
This function allows people who are engaged in traffic control, security, parking management, visitor management, store openings, organizers, cleaning staff, etc. around the customer collection facility at the time of the event It is a function to correct by adding or subtracting. These event-related people can also use mobile phones in public and private areas in and around the customer-collection facility. Therefore, if necessary, these people can also be reflected in the liquid population to improve the estimation accuracy. preferable.

In this correction process, the attributes and opening hours of the customer-collecting facility that is the venue of the event, the type of event itself, the duration of the event, and the like are taken into consideration. For example, there are facilities that regularly hold events such as theaters and movie theaters and facilities where events are held irregularly such as conference halls and concert halls.
The former customer-collection facility can be considered by including the event-related persons in the working population (fixed population), so when calculating the net liquid population, these numbers may be subtracted from the estimated value.
On the other hand, in the latter customer-collecting facility, event-related persons gather only on the spot when the event is held. Therefore, it is preferable to include the event-related persons in the estimated liquid population.
In addition, regular event facilities may have different opening times, screening times, etc. for each facility. Therefore, it is preferable to improve the accuracy by taking such factors into account for the estimation of the liquid population.
Furthermore, depending on the type of event, etc., most of the people involved in the event may be local residents, and it cannot be said that correction is always necessary.
Therefore, whether or not to correct the estimated population value of the estimation target area in consideration of event-related persons can be selected according to factors such as the above-mentioned customer collection facilities and event attributes. It is preferable to configure as described above.

  Specifically, in this correction process, a search is made from an event information storage device (third storage device) that stores information on the types of events that have been held in the past at the customer collection facility, and information related to the event, and an estimation target area. Referring to the event information storage device and the function that accepts designation of the type of event being held for the acquired customer collection facility and the event information storage device, the parties involved in the event are identified. It is preferable to provide a function (second correction means) for subtracting and correcting the estimated liquid population.

(Effect of embodiment)
As described above, according to the present embodiment, it is possible to estimate a liquid population that cannot be obtained from statistical data such as a national census provided by a public institution with high accuracy. This estimate of the liquid population is useful data for station placement design by telecommunications carriers, and it is easy to identify the liquid population by designating an arbitrary area. It can also be used effectively for time-saving activities and evacuation center selection and construction.

  Further, in an area where the use frequency varies depending on the time of day, day of the week, etc., adjustment is made by changing the direction of the base station antenna. If this can accurately calculate the liquidity population, communication frequency, etc. for each time zone and day of the week, there is no need for on-site correspondence and remote operation. For example, one of several adjacent base stations covers a small area where there are customer-collection facilities and temporarily increases the liquid population, and the other base station is large but has a large daytime population and nighttime Covers areas with small fluctuations from basic population data. As described above, it is possible to realize a fine station placement design not only according to the size of the communication area and the shielding object but also according to the flow of people in each time zone. As a result, the quality of the wireless communication service can be improved and the cost of the communication carrier can be reduced.

  Furthermore, in anticipation of the liquid population at the time of the event, it is possible to dynamically adjust the base station dynamically, such as switching the cover area of a plurality of base stations connected by optical fibers according to the time zone. For example, by grouping multiple base stations with different peak hours, other base stations can be used for support at the peak of one base station, and infrastructure can be used effectively

(Modification)
In addition, this invention is not limited to above-described embodiment, A various change is possible in the range which does not deviate from the summary of invention.

  For example, in the above-described embodiment, the estimated value of the liquid population is corrected by the coefficient for each attribute of the population accommodation facility, but the attribute of the population accommodation facility is not considered and only the communication log and statistical data are used as parameters. You may make it estimate a liquid population. In this case, since the influence of the resident cannot be excluded by setting the coefficient of the population accommodation facility, it is preferable to exclude the resident from the estimated value or to exclude the communication log of the resident first.

  Moreover, the coefficient, attribute, determination condition, etc. of the facility are not limited to those described above. For example, if the customer-collecting facility is a baseball ground, the riverbed ground and the professional baseball franchise stadium have a large difference in capacity and attendance even if they are the same sports-collection facility. Therefore, in such a case, it is preferable to divide into different attributes or make the coefficients different.

  Furthermore, the liquidity population estimation system 1 may be provided not in the base station management center 2 but in a data center of a telecommunications carrier, an information management system of a head office that comprehensively manages customer data of the whole country, and the like. In addition, after securing the security of personal data, the communication log may be transferred to an outside business such as data mining for outsourcing.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 ... Liquidity population estimation system 2 ... Base station management center 3 ... Communication log storage device 4 ... Population accommodation facility information storage device 5 ... Customer data storage device 6 ... Statistical data storage device 7 ... Map data storage device 8 ... Base station data Storage device 10 ... Control device 11 ... Storage device 11A ... Data storage area 11B ... Program storage area 12 ... Input / output interface (I / F)
DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 13 ... Input / output device 14 ... Communication device 15 ... Communication log totaling means 16 ... Population accommodation facility search means 17 ... Attribute determination means 18 ... Liquidity population estimation means 19 ... Output target area selection acceptance means

Claims (19)

A first storage device for storing a communication log including position information of the mobile station when the radio base station communicates with the mobile station;
A plurality of attribute determination criteria of population accommodation facilities or population concentration areas (hereinafter collectively referred to as “population accommodation facilities”), coefficients set for each attribute, and location information of each population accommodation facility are stored in association with each other. A second storage device;
Based on the position information of the estimation target area specified on the map data, a communication log totaling unit that searches and totals the communication logs in the area from the first storage device;
A population accommodation facility search means for retrieving a population accommodation facility existing in the estimation target area from map data,
For the retrieved population accommodation facility, attribute determination means for determining an attribute with reference to the determination criterion of the second storage device and specifying a coefficient of the facility;
A liquid population estimation system comprising: liquid population estimation means for estimating a liquid population existing in the area using the communication log total value in the estimation target area and the coefficient of the population accommodation facility as parameters. The liquid population estimation system according to claim 1,
The second storage device includes, as a population accommodation facility, a facility associated with an address or residence of demographic data, a population concentration facility and a population concentration area (hereinafter referred to as an address or residence of demographic data). A liquid population estimation system that stores determination criteria and coefficients for “population concentration facilities and population concentration areas that are not associated as addresses or residences of demographic data” as “collection facilities”). In the liquid population estimation system according to claim 2,
The second storage device stores a determination criterion with a different attribute between the time when the event is held at the customer-collecting facility and the other time,
The above-mentioned attribute determination means is a liquidity population estimation system that determines an attribute of a customer-collecting facility with reference to a determination criterion including time. The liquid population estimation system according to claim 2,
The second storage device uses the capacity, size, average number of visitors, type of facility, indoor / outdoor type, average staying time, type of event to be held, etc. At least one of the period, the predicted number of visitors or the past actual number, the time / day when the customer collection facility is open and the time / day when it is not open, the expected age group or group type A liquid population estimation system that stores coefficients set based on attributes. The liquid population estimation system according to claim 1,
Furthermore, it comprises an output target area selection receiving means for receiving on the map data the selection of the target area for outputting the estimated value of the liquid population,
The liquid population estimation system, wherein the liquid population estimation means outputs an estimated value of the liquid population for each of the selected output target areas. The liquid population estimation system according to claim 5,
Furthermore, when the selected output target area includes an area other than the estimation target area (non-estimation area), the area around the non-estimation area from the estimation target area, or the non-estimation area and the size / topography・ Established an alternative area extraction means for extracting an estimation target area that has a common area attribute / population facility configuration as an alternative area,
The above liquid population estimation means is a liquid population estimation system that outputs an estimated value of a liquid population by replacing the extracted alternative area with a non-estimation area. The liquid population estimation system according to claim 6,
The alternative area extraction means is a liquidity population estimation system that extracts, as an alternative area, an estimation target area that has the same timing as any of the non-estimated area, area, topography, regional attributes, and population accommodation facilities. The liquid population estimation system according to claim 1,
The first storage device stores a communication log including information on a time at which the radio base station and the mobile station communicated,
The communication log counting means totals the communication logs in the estimation target area in time series,
The liquid population estimation means is a liquid population estimation system that estimates a time-series distribution of liquid population. The liquid population estimation system according to claim 8,
Furthermore, it comprises an output time unit acceptance means for accepting selection of a time unit and / or a period for outputting the estimated value of the liquid population,
The liquid population estimation system, wherein the liquid population estimation means estimates the liquid population in the selected output time unit and / or period. The liquid population estimation system according to claim 1,
Further, a liquid population estimation system comprising correction means for subtracting and correcting the resident population from the estimated value of the liquid population calculated for the estimation target area with reference to the statistical data address or residence data. The liquid population estimation system according to claim 1,
The first storage device is used as a communication log to make and receive calls from a mobile station, handover from another radio base station, power on the mobile station, transmission / reception of e-mail, activation of a WEB browser, or location registration A liquid population estimation system that stores communication logs containing any of the information. The liquid population estimation system according to claim 2,
The attribute determination means refers to the second storage device, determines an attribute of an area adjacent to the customer collection facility searched from the estimation target area, and corrects the coefficient of the customer acquisition facility based on the coefficient of the adjacent area. Liquid population estimation system. The liquid population estimation system according to claim 12,
The attribute determination unit corrects the coefficient of the customer-collecting facility based on the coefficient for each adjacent region when the attributes of the plurality of regions included in the estimation target area are different among the plurality of regions adjacent to the customer-collecting facility Identify multiple coefficients,
The liquidity population estimation means is a liquidity population estimation system that estimates a liquidity population using a plurality of coefficients of a customer-collecting facility as parameters. In the liquid population estimation system according to claim 2,
further,
A third storage device that stores information on the types of events that have been held in the past at the customer collection facility, and information on event parties;
Event type designation accepting means for accepting designation of the type of event being held for the customer collection facility searched from the estimation target area;
Fluidity comprising: second correction means for referring to the third storage device, identifying a party related to the event according to the type of the designated event, and subtracting and correcting from the estimated liquid population Population estimation system. The liquid population estimation system according to claim 1,
further,
For insensitive areas that do not belong to any wireless base station communication area, a reference area in which the area around the insensitive area or the insensitive area and the area, topography, regional attributes, and population accommodation facilities are the same Reference area extraction means for extracting from map data;
A liquid population estimation system comprising: estimation means for estimating a liquid population in a dead area based on the liquid population estimation value of the extracted reference area. The liquid population estimation system according to claim 15,
The reference area extraction means is a liquidity population estimation system that extracts a reference area that is in common with the dead area and any of the size, terrain, regional attributes, and population accommodation facilities. A communication log storage device for storing a communication log including position information of the mobile station when the radio base station communicates with the mobile station;
Based on the position information of the estimation target area specified on the map data, a communication log totaling means for searching and counting the communication logs in this area from the communication log storage device,
Search means for searching for demographic data in the estimation target area from demographic data,
Liquidity population estimation means for estimating the liquid population existing in the area using the communication log total value and population data in the estimation target area as parameters ,
Customer- acquisition facility information storage device that associates and stores determination criteria for a plurality of customer-acquisition facilities , coefficients set for each attribute, and location information of each customer-acquisition facility,
Customer collection facility search means for searching for customer collection facilities existing in the estimation target area from map data,
Attribute determination means for determining the attribute of the searched customer collection facility with reference to the determination criteria of the customer collection facility information storage device, and specifying the coefficient of the facility;
A liquid population estimation system comprising: an estimated value correction means for correcting the estimated value of the liquid population in the estimation target area using the coefficient. A communication log storage device for storing a communication log including position information of the mobile station when the radio base station communicates with the mobile station;
A plurality of attribute determination criteria of population accommodation facilities or population concentration areas (hereinafter collectively referred to as “population accommodation facilities”), coefficients set for each attribute, and location information of each population accommodation facility are stored in association with each other. A detention facility information storage device;
An information processing apparatus comprising
Based on the position information of the estimation target area specified on the map data, a communication log totaling step for searching and counting the communication logs in this area from the first storage device,
A population accommodation facility search step for retrieving a population accommodation facility existing in the estimation target area from map data;
For the retrieved population accommodation facility, an attribute determination step for determining an attribute with reference to the determination criterion of the second storage device and specifying a coefficient of the facility;
A liquid population estimation method for executing a liquid population estimation step of estimating a liquid population existing in the area using a communication log total value in the estimation target area and a coefficient of a population accommodation facility as parameters. A communication log storage device for storing a communication log including position information of the mobile station when the radio base station communicates with the mobile station;
A plurality of attribute determination criteria of population accommodation facilities or population concentration areas (hereinafter collectively referred to as “population accommodation facilities”), coefficients set for each attribute, and location information of each population accommodation facility are stored in association with each other. A detention facility information storage device;
In an information processing apparatus comprising
Based on the position information of the estimation target area specified on the map data, a communication log totaling step for searching and counting the communication logs in this area from the first storage device,
A population accommodation facility search step for retrieving a population accommodation facility existing in the estimation target area from map data;
For the retrieved population accommodation facility, an attribute determination step for determining an attribute with reference to the determination criterion of the second storage device and specifying a coefficient of the facility;
A liquid population estimation program that executes a liquid population estimation step of estimating a liquid population existing in the area using the communication log total value in the estimation target area and the coefficient of the population accommodation facility as parameters.

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