JP4339867B2 - Inflow reduction prediction apparatus and inflow reduction prediction method - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to an inflow rate water reduction prediction apparatus and an inflow amount water reduction prediction method for predicting a water decrease tendency of an inflow amount after the inflow of water at a predetermined place and the average inflow amount reaches a peak.

  Specifically, the present invention relates to an average inflow amount calculated at a calculation time after a predetermined time from a peak inflow amount at a calculation time after the average inflow amount reaches a peak among average inflow amounts calculated every predetermined time. Based on the peak next-point inflow, the estimated average inflow after the predetermined time is calculated from the calculation time for calculating the peak next-point inflow using a predetermined formula. The present invention relates to an inflow reduction prediction apparatus and an inflow reduction prediction method that can be easily predicted.

  For example, if there is an inflow into an upstream dam due to rainfall or the like, the water level of the upstream dam rises, so the dam operator discharges it to the downstream dam. However, when discharging from an upstream dam to a downstream dam, if the discharge is performed more than necessary, the water level of the upstream dam may drop, making it impossible to keep the target water level of the upstream dam. .

  Conversely, if the discharge from the upstream dam to the downstream dam is delayed, the water level of the upstream dam will rise more than necessary, and if there is an inflow due to rainfall, etc., it will be enough to handle the inflow. A pocket (capacity) cannot be secured.

  The operation to discharge to the downstream dam is performed by veteran operators, based on many years of practical experience, while predicting the trend of water inflow reduction after the peak inflow to the upstream dam. It is. For this reason, there are individual differences in the timing of discharge and the amount of water discharged, and inexperienced people cannot predict how much the inflow will decrease. It is very difficult to discharge to the downstream dam while keeping. It is desired to easily predict the trend of water inflow reduction without being affected by such individual differences and experience differences.

  Conventionally, there has been proposed a dam inflow prediction model construction method for inputting an amount of discharge of an upstream dam, rainfall, and the like and predicting an inflow amount flowing into a downstream dam (see, for example, Patent Document 1).

JP 2000-18984 A

  However, although the invention of Patent Document 1 described above has been proposed for predicting the inflow amount of the downstream dam, there is inflow at a predetermined place such as the upstream dam, and the inflow amount has reached a peak. There was no suggestion about predicting the later trend of inflow reduction.

  An object of the present invention is to easily predict the tendency of water inflow to decrease after an inflow occurs at a predetermined location and the inflow reaches a peak.

The concept of this invention is
An inflow amount reduction prediction apparatus for predicting a decrease tendency of an inflow after the inflow of water at a predetermined place and the inflow to the predetermined place reaches a peak,
When the average inflow amount within the predetermined time is calculated every predetermined time and the calculation time when the average inflow amount reaches the peak is the first calculation time, the peak that is the average inflow amount of the first calculation time An inflow unit that captures an inflow amount and a peak next point inflow amount that is an average inflow amount of a second calculation time after a predetermined time from the first calculation time;
The average inflow during the x-th calculation time is y, the peak inflow at the peak point is A, the relational expression between the power exponent indicating the slope of the water reduction curve and the peak inflow, and the peak inflow taken in by the intake unit. A calculation unit that calculates a predicted average inflow amount for a calculation time following the second calculation time, based on a calculation formula y = A / (2 ^ B) x ^ B, where B is a power exponent obtained using It is in the inflow amount water fall prediction apparatus characterized by having.

  In the present invention, the predetermined place is, for example, a dam. When there is an inflow into the dam due to rainfall or the like, the inflow amount of water (hereinafter simply referred to as the inflow amount) is sequentially measured using, for example, a water system board.

  Based on the inflow measured by the water system board, the average inflow for 6 hours is calculated every predetermined time, for example, every 6 hours. Then, a calculation time 6 hours after the peak inflow amount that is the average inflow amount during the calculation time (first calculation time) when the average inflow amount reaches the peak and the calculation time after the calculation time when the average inflow amount reaches the peak (2 The peak next-point inflow that is the average inflow during the first calculation time) is detected by the detection unit.

  Further, when the peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount are detected by the detection unit, the notification may be notified by the notification unit. The notification unit is configured by a display unit when performing notification by display, and is configured by a buzzer or a speaker when performing notification by sound. As a result of such notification, the user can be focused on the display unit. The peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount detected by the detection unit are captured by the capturing unit.

  In addition, instead of detecting the peak inflow and peak next point inflow by the detection unit described above, the change in average inflow is displayed on the display unit every 6 hours from the inflow measured by the water system panel, and the peak inflow The amount and the peak next point inflow amount may be input by the user at the input unit. By doing so, only when the user wants to predict the water reduction tendency, the predicted average inflow after the third calculation time following the peak next point inflow is calculated. The peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount input at the input unit are captured by the capturing unit.

  Next, the peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount taken in by the intake unit are applied to a predetermined calculation formula, and a predicted average inflow amount for predicting a future water decrease tendency of the inflow amount is obtained. The predetermined calculation formula is y = A / (2 ^ B) x ^ B, where y is the average inflow during the x-th calculation time.

  The peak next point inflow amount captured by the capturing unit is substituted into A. In B, for example, a power exponent indicating the slope of a plurality of water reduction curves based on the actual value of the inflow amount to a predetermined place, a relational expression between each peak inflow amount of these water reduction curves, and an acquisition unit The power exponent of the relational expression obtained using the peak inflow amount is substituted. The value of B changes according to the value of the peak inflow amount captured by the capturing unit. In this way, values are substituted into A and B, respectively, and the predicted average inflow after the third calculation time can be obtained based on the calculation formula y = A / (2 ^ B) x ^ B.

  Moreover, based on the calculation formula obtained in this way, a water reduction prediction curve indicating a future water reduction tendency of the inflow amount may be created. The water reduction prediction curve is displayed on the display unit, for example. By displaying the water reduction prediction curve on the display unit, the user looks at the displayed water reduction prediction curve and grasps the water decrease tendency of the inflow to the dam in the future. If there is, it is possible to determine the timing of discharge to the downstream dam.

  According to the present invention, out of the average inflow calculated every predetermined time, the peak inflow during the calculation time when the average inflow reached the peak, and the peak next point inflow that is the average inflow after a predetermined time. Based on the above, the calculated average inflow after the predetermined time is obtained from the calculation time for calculating the peak next point inflow using a predetermined calculation formula, and it is possible to easily predict the water decrease tendency of the inflow in the future. It becomes possible.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 1 shows a configuration of an inflow rate water reduction prediction apparatus 10 as an embodiment. This inflow reduction prediction device 10 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 11, a RAM (Random Access Memory) 12, a ROM (Read Only Memory) 13, an input / output I / F (Interface) 14, and an HDD (Hard). Disk Drive) 15 and measuring unit 16 are connected to a bus 19. The input / output I / F 14 is connected to a keyboard 17 and a display 18 as a user interface.

  The CPU 11 controls the overall operation of the inflow amount water decrease prediction apparatus 10. The ROM 13 stores a control program and data for controlling the operation of the CPU 11. The RAM 12 functions as a working area for the CPU 11. The CPU 11 reads out the control program stored in the ROM 13 as necessary, transfers it to the RAM 12 and develops it. And CPU11 controls each part of the inflow amount water fall prediction apparatus 10 by reading and executing the control program expand | deployed by RAM12.

  The input / output I / F 14 defines a data exchange control method and the like. Data such as the peak inflow amount input using the keyboard 17 passes through the bus 19 via the input / output I / F 14 and is processed by the CPU 11. The display information controlled by the CPU 11 is supplied to the display 18 via the input / output I / F 14. The display 18 includes a display device such as an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display).

  The HDD 15 stores the inflow amount measured by the measuring unit 16 at predetermined time intervals. The measurement part 16 is comprised by the water system board, for example, and when the inflow of water enters a dam, the inflow amount is measured sequentially.

  Hereinafter, the operation performed by the inflow amount water decrease prediction apparatus 10 will be briefly described.

  The inflow amount water decrease prediction apparatus 10 uses the measuring unit 16 to sequentially measure the inflow amount using a water system board when there is an inflow due to rain or the like at a predetermined place where water inflow occurs, such as a dam. Based on the measured inflow, for example, every 6 hours, the average inflow for 6 hours is calculated. These average inflows every 6 hours are sequentially stored in the HDD 15. For example, when a peak inflow that causes the average inflow to reach a peak is detected from the average inflow every 6 hours calculated as described above, the peak inflow is calculated along with the calculation time when the peak inflow is calculated. The peak next point inflow, which is the average inflow after 6 hours, is detected and captured.

  As another method for taking in the peak inflow and peak inflow, for example, the average inflow every 6 hours is calculated from the inflow measured by the water system panel, and the change in the average inflow is displayed on the display 18. Then, when the user looks at the average inflow amount every 6 hours displayed on the display 18, the peak inflow amount at which the average inflow amount reaches a peak is detected, and the peak inflow amount and the peak inflow amount are calculated. There is also a method of inputting the peak next point inflow amount, which is an inflow amount after 6 hours, using the keyboard 17.

  The peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount taken in by any of the above-described methods are applied to a predetermined calculation formula y = A / (2 ^ B) x ^ B to calculate the peak next point inflow amount. Predict the average inflow after time. This calculation formula is stored in advance in the ROM 13 or the like. Hereinafter, the formation of the calculation formula y = A / (2 ^ B) x ^ B will be described.

In FIG. 2, the elapsed time (6 hour unit) is taken on the x-axis, and the average inflow (m ³ s) is taken every 6 hours on the y-axis, and the calculation time (x = It is the figure which showed the water-reduction curve which is the water reduction track record of the past inflow to the predetermined place every 1 hour from 1), and its approximate value line. In FIG. 2, a plurality of such average water inflows every six hours are displayed, and a water reduction curve based on these results is also displayed. Moreover, the calculation formula corresponding to each water reduction curve is described.

  Assuming that y = px ^ q is the general formula for calculating the water reduction curve shown in FIG. 2, p is the peak inflow amount that is the curve start height of each water reduction curve, and q is the inflow amount of each water reduction curve. It can be seen that it is a numerical value that determines the slope to be performed. Based on this, it is considered that q, which is a power exponent of x, is related to the tendency of the inflow to decrease. Next, the correlation between the peak inflow amount and q, which is a power exponent of x, is examined.

  FIG. 3 is a power exponent of x derived from the calculation formula of each approximate value line, where x is the peak inflow amount (value of y when x = 1) in each inflow amount reduction result shown in FIG. It is the figure showing the approximate value line calculated | required based on a track record value by making q into y.

As shown in FIG. 3, each peak inflow amount (m ³ / s) of a plurality of approximate value lines on the x-axis and q which is a power exponent of x in the calculation formula of each approximate value line shown in FIG. 2 on the y-axis A certain degree of correlation can be seen. Below the approximate value line, which is a relational expression based on these, y = 0.2405x ^ 0.2254, which is a formula for calculating the approximate value line, is displayed.

  Based on these, based on y = px ^ q, which is the general formula for the water reduction curve shown in FIG. 2, the coefficient of x is defined as the peak inflow that is the height of the curve start, and the power exponent of x A formula for calculating a water-reduction prediction curve for predicting a water-reduction trend is created, with the value indicating the slope of water-reduction of inflow.

The general formula of the calculation formula can be expressed as y = cx ^ b, where y is the average inflow amount during the x-th calculation time. In the general formula y = cx ^ b, c is the peak inflow amount. Further, b is a value obtained by substituting the peak inflow amount into x of y = 0.2405x ^ 0.2254 which is the relational expression obtained in FIG. For example, when the calculated peak inflow is 16.5 (m ³ / s), when 16.5 is applied to x, b is 0.2405 * 16.5 ^ 0.2245 * -1 = −. 0.452, and can be obtained as -0.452, and when these are applied to the general formula y = cx ^ b, the calculation formula when the peak inflow is 16.5 (m ³ / s) is y = It is calculated as 16.5x ^ -0.452.

FIG. 4 shows a water reduction prediction curve based on the calculation formula y = 16.5x ^ −0.452 of the water reduction prediction curve obtained by the above-described method, and the peak inflow amount is actually 16.5 (m ³ / s). It is the figure which showed the water reduction result of the inflow amount in a certain case. As shown in FIG. 4, the water reduction prediction curve is lower than the actual water reduction result, and it can be seen that there is a considerable deviation. In FIG. 4, when the actual value is compared with the approximate value line based on the actual value, it can be seen that the inflow amount after 6 hours (peak inflow amount at the peak next point) is quite close.

  Focusing on this, the calculation formula is corrected so that the inflow after 6 hours of the peak inflow calculated by the water reduction prediction curve is the same as the peak next point inflow in the inflow reduction.

  Since the peak inflow is A and the slope of the curve is the same as that of the water reduction prediction curve for y = cx ^ b, y is an exponential exponent of x of y = cx ^ b, which is a calculation formula representing the water reduction prediction curve. Assuming B, the corrected calculation formula can be expressed as y = A / (2 ^ B) x ^ B.

  FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a water reduction prediction curve based on the corrected calculation formula, a water reduction prediction curve based on the calculation formula before correction, and a water reduction actual result. Focusing on the combination of the actual value and the water reduction prediction curve, the water reduction prediction curve based on the corrected calculation formula is much closer to the inflow reduction result than the water reduction prediction curve based on the calculation formula before correction. It has become. After such a process, the corrected calculation formula y = A / (2 ^ B) x ^ B was used as a calculation formula for predicting a water reduction tendency.

  By calculating the value of y after x = 3 by this formula, the predicted average inflow after 6 hours following the peak inflow is calculated, and the future trend of water inflow reduction is predicted. Can do. Moreover, a water reduction prediction curve can be created using this calculation formula. The predicted average inflow amount and the water decrease prediction curve are displayed on the display 18. FIG. 6 is a display example in which the predicted average inflow amount and the water decrease prediction curve displayed on the display 18 are displayed.

  FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing the operation of the CPU 11 of the inflow amount water reduction prediction apparatus 10 when the peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount are input by the user. Hereinafter, the operation of the CPU 11 will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG.

  First, the CPU 11 starts operation at the same time as the power is turned on in step ST1, and calculates an average inflow amount every 6 hours based on the inflow amount measured by the measuring unit 16. In step ST2, the CPU 11 displays the average inflow amount every 6 hours on the display 18.

  Next, in step ST3, the CPU 11 determines whether the user has operated the keyboard 17 to input the peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount. At this time, the keyboard 17 constitutes an input unit. If it is determined in step ST3 that there is no input, the process returns to step ST2, and the operations in steps ST2 and ST3 are repeated until it is determined in step ST3 that there is an input. The display information displayed in step ST2 is updated every time an average inflow amount every 6 hours is newly calculated.

  Conversely, if it is determined in step ST3 that there is an input, the CPU 11 captures the input peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount in step ST4 and stores it in the RAM 12. At this time, the CPU 11 constitutes a capturing unit.

  Next, in step ST5, the predicted average inflow after the calculation time when the peak next point inflow is calculated from the calculation formula y = A / (2 ^ B) x ^ B based on the value taken in in step ST4. Calculate the amount. At this time, the CPU 11 constitutes a calculation unit. In step ST5, a water reduction prediction curve is also created based on the calculation formula. The predicted average inflow amount calculated in step ST5 is displayed on the display 18 in step ST6 together with the water decrease prediction curve. FIG. 6 is a display example in which the predicted average inflow amount and the water decrease prediction curve are displayed on the display 18.

  Thereafter, the CPU 11 ends the series of operations in step ST7.

  In this way, since the user views the average inflow amount every 6 hours displayed on the display 18 and inputs the peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount, the inflow amount is only when the user needs to predict. It is possible to predict the water reduction tendency.

  FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing the operation of the CPU 11 when the peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount are detected by the CPU 11. Hereinafter, the operation of the CPU 11 will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG. The description overlapping with the flowchart of FIG. 7 is omitted as appropriate.

  The operation is started at the same time as the power is turned on in step ST11, and the average inflow amount every 6 hours is calculated based on the inflow amount measured by the measuring unit 16. In step ST12, the CPU 11 determines whether or not the peak inflow amount is detected from the average inflow amount every 6 hours measured in step ST11.

  When the CPU 11 determines that the peak inflow amount is not detected in step ST12, the operation of step ST12 is repeated until it is determined that there is a peak inflow amount.

  Conversely, if the CPU 11 determines that the peak inflow amount has been detected in step ST12, the peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount are detected in step ST13. Whether or not it is the peak inflow amount can be determined by the fact that the next point inflow amount has decreased, so that the peak next point inflow amount can be detected simultaneously with the peak inflow amount. At this time, the CPU 11 constitutes a detection unit.

  When detected in step ST13, the CPU 11 notifies the user that the peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount are detected in step ST14 by blinking the display 18 or displaying a large character. By notifying the detection in this way, the user can be paid attention to the display 18. At this time, the CPU 11 constitutes a notification unit.

  Next, the CPU 11 takes in the peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount detected in step ST13 in step ST15 and stores them in the RAM 12. At this time, the CPU 11 constitutes a capturing unit.

  The operation after step ST16 is the same as the operation after step ST6 of the flowchart shown in FIG.

  In this way, the peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount are automatically detected from the change in the inflow amount in the past several hours by the inflow amount water decrease prediction device 10, so that the user himself / herself can detect the peak inflow amount and the peak next amount. It is not necessary to input the point inflow amount, and the display 18 may not always be viewed.

  As shown in FIGS. 7 and 8, based on the peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount, a future predicted average inflow amount is calculated using a calculation formula y = A / (2 ^ B) x ^ B, It is possible to easily predict the trend of water inflow reduction.

  In the above-described embodiment, in step ST14 of FIG. 8, the CPU 11 is notified using the display 18, but may be notified by voice using a speaker or the like. By notifying by voice, it is possible to notify that the peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount have been detected even if the user is at a location away from the inflow amount water decrease prediction device 10.

  In the above-described embodiment, the relational expression y = px ^ q used when obtaining the calculation formula y = A / (2 ^ B) x ^ B is actually predicted as shown in FIG. Although it calculated | required based on the past inflow track record of the predetermined place to perform, it may not be restricted to the track record value of the place which estimates.

  In the above-described embodiment, as shown in FIG. 1, the measurement unit 16 is provided inside the inflow amount water reduction prediction apparatus 10, but may be provided outside the inflow amount water reduction prediction apparatus 10.

  Further, in the above-described embodiment, after notifying that the peak inflow amount and the peak next-point inflow amount have been detected in step ST14 of FIG. 8, they are captured in step ST15, and the predicted average inflow amount is calculated in step ST16. The water reduction prediction curve has been created, but a step is further provided for determining whether or not the user desires a prediction of the water decrease tendency of the inflow, and only when the CPU 11 determines that the user desires the prediction, the water reduction prediction curve. You may make it create. By doing so, similarly to the operation shown in FIG. 7, it is possible to predict the tendency of the inflow to decrease only when the user needs to predict.

  Further, in the above-described embodiment, the inflow of water into the dam due to rainfall or the like is actually reduced, and the future inflow is reduced based on the peak inflow and the peak next point inflow when the inflow is peak. Although the inflow reduction prediction device 10 is used to predict the trend, the dam operator can also be used for a training system for training to discharge from the upstream dam to the downstream dam.

  The present invention predicts a tendency of water inflow to decrease after the amount of inflow to a predetermined location reaches a peak, and can be applied, for example, when there is an inflow to a dam.

It is a figure which shows the structure of an inflow amount water fall prediction apparatus. It is the graph which showed the inflow amount water reduction performance and the approximate value line. It is the graph which showed the correlation with the power exponent of x of the calculation formula calculated | required in FIG. 2, and the peak inflow. It is the graph which compared the water reduction prediction curve and the results. It is the graph which showed the water reduction prediction curve after correction | amendment. It is the example of a display which displayed the prediction inflow amount and the water reduction prediction curve after correction | amendment. It is a flowchart which shows operation | movement of CPU when the peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount are input by the user. It is a flowchart which shows operation | movement of CPU when CPU detects the peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 ... Inflow amount water fall prediction apparatus, 11 ... CPU, 12 ... RAM, 13 ... ROM, 14 ... Input-output I / F, 15 ... HDD, 16 ... Measuring part, 17 ... Keyboard, 18 ... Display, 19 ... Bus

Claims (6)

An inflow amount reduction prediction apparatus for predicting a decrease tendency of an inflow after the inflow of water at a predetermined place and the inflow to the predetermined place reaches a peak,
When the average inflow amount within the predetermined time is calculated every predetermined time and the calculation time when the average inflow amount reaches the peak is the first calculation time, the peak that is the average inflow amount of the first calculation time An inflow unit that captures an inflow amount and a peak next point inflow amount that is an average inflow amount of a second calculation time after a predetermined time from the first calculation time;
The average inflow during the x-th calculation time is y, the peak inflow at the peak point is A, the relational expression between the power exponent indicating the slope of the water reduction curve and the peak inflow, and the peak inflow taken in by the intake unit. A calculation unit that calculates a predicted average inflow amount for a calculation time following the second calculation time, based on a calculation formula y = A / (2 ^ B) x ^ B, where B is a power exponent obtained using And an inflow reduction prediction apparatus characterized by comprising: Based on the predicted average inflow amount calculated by the calculation unit, a water reduction prediction curve indicating a water reduction tendency after the calculation time when the peak next point inflow amount is calculated is created, and the water reduction prediction curve is displayed on the display unit. The inflow amount water decrease prediction apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising a display control unit for performing the operation. An input unit for inputting the peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount;
The inflow amount reduction prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the capturing unit captures the peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount input by the input unit. A detector that detects the peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount;
The inflow amount reduction prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the capturing unit captures the peak inflow amount and the peak next point inflow amount detected by the detection unit. When the said detection part detects the said peak inflow amount and the said peak next point inflow amount, it further has an alerting | reporting part which alert | reports that the said peak inflow amount and the said peak next point inflow amount were detected. Item 5. An inflow reduction prediction apparatus according to Item 4. An inflow reduction prediction method for predicting a water decrease tendency of an inflow after the inflow of water at a predetermined place reaches a peak.
When the average inflow amount within the predetermined time is calculated every predetermined time and the calculation time when the average inflow amount reaches the peak is the first calculation time, the peak that is the average inflow amount of the first calculation time An ingestion step of capturing an inflow amount and a peak next point inflow amount that is an average inflow amount of a second calculation time after a predetermined time from the first calculation time;
The average inflow at the x-th calculation time is y, the peak inflow at the peak point is A, the relational expression between the power exponent indicating the slope of the water reduction curve and the peak inflow, and the peak inflow taken in at the uptake step. A calculation step of calculating a predicted average inflow amount of a calculation time following the second calculation time based on a calculation formula y = A / (2 ^ B) x ^ B, where B is a power exponent obtained using An inflow reduction prediction method characterized by comprising:

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