JP2950695B2 - Operation status monitoring device - Google Patents

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to an operating condition monitoring device for monitoring the operating condition of a heat production and storage device for supplying heat to a heat load for obtaining a predetermined temperature atmosphere such as cooling and heating. The present invention relates to a driving condition monitoring device that predicts a future heat supply amount to a load and guides a driving operation correction when a driving condition is likely to deviate from an allowable range.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art In recent years, large-scale cooling and heating systems such as air conditioners and district cooling and heating devices for buildings are provided with a heat producing and storing device having a heat storage tank for performing cooling and heating. In this heat production and heat storage device, hot water and cold water are generated by a heat source device such as a heat pump, stored in a heat storage tank, and supplied to a heat load such as a cooling and heating device as needed.

[0003] In general, in a heat production and heat storage device for cooling and heating using an electric system, heat is generated and stored from electric power at night, and the stored heat is radiated during the day, so that efficient use of inexpensive nighttime electric power is achieved. Driving is taking place. That is,
Plan an operation schedule that takes into account multiple heat source devices and heat storage tanks that are appropriate from the viewpoint of power smoothing and night shift, etc.Also, from the viewpoint of improving the reliability of the cooling and heating system, provide a stable supply of heat and heat source devices. Driving is performed to ensure safe driving.

[0004] In practice, the operator of this heat production and heat storage device predicts the heat load based on past measurement data and empirical knowledge, constantly monitors the heat storage condition and the operation condition of the heat source equipment, and changes in the condition. Modify the driving schedule according to
In addition, while constantly monitoring the operation status of the heat source equipment, the operation is corrected so that the operation does not become abnormal.

[0005]

However, the above-mentioned heat-producing heat storage device has the following problems to be improved.

[0006] That is, in the above-mentioned handling method, in order to operate the apparatus normally, it is necessary for an operator having specialized knowledge including operation prediction of the apparatus to constantly monitor. However, securing a large number of specialized operators is difficult.

[0007] Even if an operator who can constantly monitor can be secured, there is a case where a deviation of a heat load prediction and a prediction of an operation schedule deviate. However, there is a case where a quick and appropriate response cannot be made when the load prediction is deviated.

Further, since it is difficult for one operator to constantly monitor, a plurality of operators alternately monitor. However, monitoring and adjusting operations of individual operators require long experience, and in practice, different operating operations may be performed for the same event due to differences in the experiences of a plurality of operators. As a result, there is a concern that stable supply of heat to the heat load and quality of safe operation of the heat source device may be reduced, and in some cases, an erroneous operation may occur.

The present invention has been made in view of such circumstances, and based on a supply forecast value for a certain long period such as several hours to one day, etc. and a current operation state, for example, a relatively long time such as one hour. By predicting the driving situation a short time ahead and determining whether the prediction is valid, if the driving situation is expected to deviate from the allowable range, the operator is warned in advance, and An operation guide that can avoid this can be output, and even an inexperienced operator can stably supply the required amount of heat to the heat load, and can sufficiently cope with sudden load fluctuations. An object of the present invention is to provide an operation status monitoring device capable of realizing stable operation.

[0010]

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, the present invention provides an operation status monitor for monitoring the operation status of a heat production and storage device for supplying heat to a heat load for obtaining a predetermined temperature atmosphere. In the device,

A supply flow rate predicting means for predicting a supply flow rate value of heat supplied to a heat load in a predetermined period based on a past supply flow rate result according to a day of the week, a season, and a time zone; An operating condition predicting means for predicting an operating condition a short time ahead of a predetermined period based on the operating condition and the predicted supply flow rate value; and an operating condition determination for determining whether the predicted operating condition deviates from an allowable range. Means, a driving operation correction amount calculating means for calculating a correction amount of the driving operation such that the driving condition does not deviate from the allowable range when the driving condition determining means determines a deviation from the allowable range, and a calculated driving operation correction amount And an operation correction guide output means for outputting the information as a driving operation guide.

[0012]

According to the operation status monitoring device configured as described above, a relatively long period of time such as several hours to one day can be obtained based on the past supply flow results according to the day of the week, season, and time zone. Predict the supply flow supplied to the heat load. From the supply flow rate predicted value and the current operation state, an operation state in a relatively short time, for example, one hour ahead, is predicted, and it is determined whether or not the operation state is likely to deviate from an allowable range. If it is anticipated that the operation will be performed, a correction amount of the driving operation is calculated so that the vehicle can be driven in the allowable driving range, and the correction amount is output to the operator as a driving operation guide.

[0013] Therefore, the operator of this apparatus operates and operates heat source equipment such as a heat pump with reference to the operation guide.
By operating the stop, stable operation of the heat production and storage device can be performed.

[0014]

An embodiment of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings.

FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram showing a schematic configuration of the heat production heat storage device 1 and an operation device 20 for controlling the operation of the heat production heat storage device 1. The operation status monitoring device according to the embodiment is incorporated in the operation device 20.

The heat production heat storage device 1 to which the operating condition monitoring device of this embodiment is applied is installed, for example, in a basement of a building that is controlled for cooling and heating. Cooling heat pump 2
Has a function of cooling, for example, water of about 10 ° as a cooling medium in a cold water tank 4 provided at the bottom of the heat producing heat storage device 1 to about 5 ° C. Also. The heat recovery type heat pump 3 converts cold water of about 5 ° C into hot water of about 45 ° C,
Conversely, hot water of about 45 ° C can be converted to cold water of about 5 ° C.
Then, the created warm water of about 45 ° C. is accumulated in the hot and cold water tank 4, and the cold water of about 5 ° C. is accumulated in the cold water tank 4. Therefore, the heat recovery type heat pump 3 can use the heat output at the time of conversion for both, so that the heat production efficiency is good.

The temperature of the cold or hot water flowing into and out of each of the heat pumps 2 and 3 is measured by a thermometer 10a, and the flow rate is measured by each flow meter 11. Also. The temperature distribution of the cold water tank 4 and the hot water tank 5 is measured by each thermometer 10b.

The cooling water in the cold water tank 4 and the hot water in the hot water tank 5 are:
Cold water header 7 and hot water header 8 with each water pump 6
Is supplied to each heat load 9 provided in each part of the building, such as air conditioning, cooling, and hot water supply. At this time, the temperature of the incoming and outgoing water in each supply system is measured by each thermometer 10c, and the flow rate of water supply at that time is measured by each flow meter 11. Each thermometer 1
A plurality of measurement values 12 such as each temperature measured at 0 a, 10 b, and 10 c and each flow rate measured at each flow meter 11 are transmitted to the operation device 20.

As shown in the figure, the operating device 20 includes a man-machine input device 24, an output device 26, and a heat production / storage device 1 to which an input device 21, an arithmetic and control unit 22, a CRT display device 23 and a keyboard are connected. And a heat source control device 27 that outputs each control operation amount 25.

The measured values 12 input from the heat production and heat storage device 1 are input to the arithmetic and control unit 22 via the input device 21.
Is input to The arithmetic and control unit 22 performs a predetermined arithmetic process on each measured value 12 and displays the arithmetic result on the CRT display 23.

The operator outputs the operation / stop command 25 of each heat pipe 2.3 to the heat source control device 27 via the output device 26 with reference to the operation guide information displayed on the CRT display device 23. As a result, the operation of the heat pipe 2.3 of the heat production and heat storage device 1 is controlled, and the operation state changes. A description will be given of an operation state monitoring processing operation for the heat production and heat storage device 1 performed by the arithmetic and control unit 22 in the operation device 20 configured as described above. This operation state monitoring processing operation is roughly composed of the following five processing operations. (1) Supply flow prediction process for a heat load for a predetermined period (S
3) (2) Process for predicting the driving situation shortly ahead (S5) (3) Processing for judging the quality of the predicted driving situation (S6) (4) Calculation of correction amount of driving operation for improving future driving situation Processing (S7) (5) Driving operation guidance output processing of driving operation correction amount (S7) The above-described processing is repeatedly executed every day. The execution procedure of each process in one day is as shown in the flowchart of FIG. Prior to the description of this flowchart, the definition of each time zone indicating a predetermined period will be described. Time zone 1 (22:00-8:00) Time zone 2 (8:00-13:00)-Summer (8:00-16:00)-Winter (8:00-22: 00) Other seasons Time zone 3 (13: 00-16: 00) Summer (16: 00-22: 00) Winter time zone 4 (16: 00-22: 00) ) ・ ・ ・ Summer (18: 00-22: 00) ・ ・ ・ Winter

As shown in FIG. 2, after setting various parameters for predicting the supply flow rate in S (step) 1, in S2, when the respective start times of the time zones 1 to 4 arrive, The supply flow rate prediction processing (S3) for a predetermined period with respect to the heat load of 1) is performed. Then, in S4, each of the processes shown in (2), (3), (4), and (5) is repeatedly executed every time a relatively short time counter (monitoring cycle) such as one hour elapses (S5 to S7).

For example, in summer time zone 2 (8:00 to 13:00), at times 8:00, 9:00, 10:00, 11:00, and 12:00, a total of five times, (2) (3) (4) described above
Each process of (5) is repeated. Next, the processing operations (1) to (5) will be described in order. (1) Supply flow rate prediction processing (S3)

The supply flow rate prediction processing is performed in the above-described steps 1-4.
Before the start of each time zone, the supply flow rate for the past hour and day is already stored for each day of the week. For example, the mode M of the day of the week is: holiday (M = 1) weekday (M = 2) unusual day (M = 3), and the time zone T is set as follows.・ Time zone 1 (T = 1) (Night) (22: 00-8: 00) ・ Time zone 2 (T = 2) (8: 00-13: 00) ・ ・ ・
Summer (8: 00-16: 00) ・ ・ ・ Winter (8: 00-22: 00) ・ ・ ・ Other seasons ・ Time zone 3 (T = 3) (13: 00-16: 00)
・ Summer (16: 00-22: 00) ・ ・ ・ Winter ・ Time zone 4 (T = 4) (16: 00-22: 00)
・ Summer (18: 00-22: 00) ・ ・ ・ Winter

Therefore, in this supply flow rate processing, S1
In, for example, when the day mode and seasonal data of the day are set using the mammation input device 24, for example, the past average supply flow rate pattern Y _MT is not only easily obtained, but also continuously, two days before (k-2), The actual flow rates Y _MT (k-2) and Y _MT (k-1) of the previous day (k-1) are obtained. Then, using the following model, the supply flow predicted value Y _PMT (k) on the day (k) can be calculated. Y _PMT (k) = a1 · (Y _MT (k−1) −Y _MMT ) + a 2 · (Y _MT (k−2) −Y _MMT ) +... + B · ΔW + Y _MMT (1) where Y _PMT (k): Predicted flow rate in the time zone T on the day (k) [Gcal] Y _MMT : Actual average flow rate [Gca
l] ΔW: predicted temperature (average temperature) [° C] a1, a2, ..., b: parameters

The above-described parameters a1, a2,...
And b are parameters of the calculation model, which are given in advance in S1. It is also possible to perform the least squares estimation (Kalman filter) sequentially in real time.

As described above, each time zone (T =
Supply flow predicted value Y _PMT (k) [G
cal] is obtained from the actual flow rate average value y _MT (i) (i = 1,..., 24) for each hour of the day M of the day of the week (k) 2
Supply flow predicted value predicted value y for each hour of each 4 hours
_PMT (k, i) (i = 1,..., 24) [Gcal] is obtained. (2) Prediction process of operation status short time ahead (S5) In S4, the process is executed for each relatively short monitoring period such as one hour. Then, an hourly supply prediction process is executed before the actual operation status prediction process. (2) -1 Hourly supply forecasting process

Now, assuming that the actual flow rates y _MT (k, i-2) and y _MT (k, i-1) at the time before (i-2) and the previous time (i-1) are obtained, Using the following model, the next time on the day (k)
The supply flow predicted value y _PMT (k, i) of (i) is calculated. _{y PMT (k, i) =} a1 · (y MT (k, i-1) -y MMT (i-1)) + a2 · (y MT (k, i-2) -y MMT (i-2)) + ・ ・ ・ + B · △ h (i) + y _MMT (i)… (2) y _PMT (k, i): Estimated flow rate at time i in time zone T of the day
[Gcal / hour] Δh (i): enthalpy at time i−average enthalpy [kcal / kg] y _MMT (i): average flow rate at time i a1, a2,..., B: parameters

The parameters a1, a2,...,
b is a parameter of the mathematical model, which can be given in advance, or can be sequentially estimated in real time by least squares (Kalman filter). (2) -2 Prediction process of driving situation

The period for monitoring in anticipation of future operating conditions is implemented at a constant period, for example, one hour. In this cycle, the operation status in a short time (n = for example, one hour) is predicted. The operating condition is predicted from the following measured values and the supply flow rate for each time.

The measured values are the outgoing water temperature supplied to the heat load 9, the return water temperature returned from the heat load 9, the supplied water flow rate, the temperature distribution of the cold water tank and the hot water tank, and the temperature of the heat pump 2.3. Inlet temperature, outlet temperature, heat production flow rate. The following three items will be grasped as future driving conditions. a Is there a deviation from the specified supply temperature? b Has the preset heat storage been performed at a predetermined time? c Does the return water temperature become abnormal and hinder the operation of heat pump 2.3? First, it is predicted whether the temperature deviates from the specified supply temperature in (a). If V + P <Q, it is expected that water will be supplied one hour ahead of the supply temperature. V + P ≧ Q
Then, the water supply exceeding the supply temperature is not performed one hour later. However, V: Water volume below the specified water supply temperature of the heat storage tank [m ³ ] P: Production flow rate of heat pump [m ³ / h] Q: Supply flow predicted value one hour ahead [m ³ / h] Next, it is predicted whether or not the preset heat storage at the predetermined time in (b) is performed.

The heat storage set at a predetermined time is
It is set at the following θ _Mi. Here, θ _M i is the time i
This is the position of the thermometer that must be below the specified water supply temperature. The position of the thermometer that is equal to or lower than the specified water supply temperature one hour ahead is calculated by the following equation. First, the amount of water below the specified water supply temperature of the heat storage tank one hour ahead is calculated. Vi = Vi-1 + Pi-Qi Vi: Water amount at or below the specified water supply temperature of the heat storage tank at time i [m ³ ] Pi: Production flow rate of heat pump at time i [m ³
/ h] Qi: supply flow predicted value at time i [m ³
/ h] Next, from the function f of the water volume and the volume controlled by the thermometer, the thermometer position θ at which the water volume below the specified water supply temperature one hour ahead is dominated.
_Predict Pi. θ _P i = f (Vi) θ _P i: Thermometer position at or below the specified water supply temperature of the heat storage tank at time i f (V): Function of water volume V and thermometer position; Determined when the meter is installed.

If θ _P i <θ _M i, it is expected that the heat stored at time i will not be stored. Also,
If θ _P i ≧ θ _M i, heat storage, which is set to the time i is expected to be made. Further, it is predicted whether the return water temperature in (c) becomes abnormal and does not hinder the operation of the heat pump. The prediction of the return water temperature one hour ahead of the return water temperature is made based on the past return water temperature results and the flow rate of the supplied water.

Using the following models, the return water temperature results θr (i-2) and θr (i-1) at the time before (i-2) and the previous time (i-1) and the predicted supply flow rate are used. , Kaemizu temperature prediction value θ _P r of the next time (i)
Predict (i). _{θ P r (i) = a1} · (θr (i-1) -θ M r (i-1)) + a2 · (θr (i-2) -θ M r (i-2)) + ··· + b・ △ q (i) + θ _M r (i) (3) where θ _P r (i) is the predicted value of the return water temperature at time i on the day.
[° C.] Δq (i): predicted supply flow rate at time i−average supply flow rate [m ³ / h] θ _M r (i): average return water temperature at time i a1, a2, ..., b: parameters

The parameters a1, a2,..., B are parameters of the mathematical model, which can be given in advance, and which can be sequentially estimated in real time by least squares (Kalman filter). (3) Processing for judging the quality of the predicted driving situation (S6) By predicting the future situation and determining the situation as described above, it is possible to determine whether or not the driving situation one hour ahead has deviated from the allowable driving range. Can be expected. (4) Driving operation correction amount calculation processing (S7) for improving future driving conditions and (5) driving operation guidance output processing of driving operation correction amount (S7)

Judgment of driving condition one hour ahead (S6)
As a result, when it is expected that the driving state deviates from the allowable operation range, each control guidance for improving the operation state shown in the following (a), (b) and (c) is calculated. (A) When it is expected to deviate from the specified supply temperature

The amount of heat that must be produced in one hour in the future, that is, the amount of water Pref below the specified water supply temperature, is calculated and displayed on the CRT display 23 as an operation guide. The water amount Pref below the specified water supply temperature is calculated by the following equation. Pref = Q−V Pref: Production flow target value [m ³ that must be produced in one hour / h] V: Water volume below the specified temperature of water supply to the heat storage tank [m ³ ] Q: Supply flow predicted value one hour ahead [m ³ / h] (b) When it is anticipated that the set heat storage will not be performed at the determined time. The required water amount Vref is calculated from the thermometer position that must be below the specified water supply temperature one hour in advance. Vref = f ^-1 (θ _M i) θ _M i: Thermometer position below the specified water supply temperature of the heat storage tank at the set time i f ^-1 (θ): f which is a function of the water volume V and the thermometer position
Inverse function of (V) Piref = Vref -V ( i-1) + Qi Vi: Time i water predetermined temperature below the expected amount of water storage tank of [m ³ Piref: production flow rate of the heat pump to be produced at time i [m ³ / h] Qi: predicted value of supply flow at time i
[M ³ / h] The calculated production flow rate Piref to be produced is displayed on the CRT display device 23 as an operation guide. (C) When it is expected that the return water temperature becomes abnormal and hinders the operation of the heat pumps 2 and 3,

In order to operate the heat pump 2.3 to produce water having a temperature equal to or lower than the specified water supply temperature θs, an inlet temperature is required in consideration of the heat pump performance (Δtmax). Therefore, the expected Kaemizu temperature theta _P r, calculates the following information. θs + △ tmax <θ _P r if water specified temperature below the heat can not be produced. θs + △ tmax ≧ θ _P r if water specified temperature below the heat can be produced. Further, a state in which the difference between the water supply specified temperature and Kaemizu temperature theta _P r can not be operated in performance (△ tmin) drops below the heat pump 2 and 3 of the heat pump 2. θs + △ tmax ≦ θ _P r If the heat pump can be operated. θs + △ tmax> θ _P r If the heat pump can not be operated.

With the operation status monitoring device configured as described above, if the operation status is likely to deviate from the allowable range within a relatively short time such as one hour, the CRT is notified in advance and a correction operation guide that does not deviate is provided. It is displayed on the display device 23.

Therefore, even if the driver is unfamiliar with the operation of operating the heat production and heat storage device, it is possible to prevent an unexpected situation in which the operation state deviates from the allowable range.

Further, since the prediction of the supplied heat amount is corrected based on the actual supplied heat amount, it is possible to predict the operating condition by always using the correct predicted value. Therefore, if the thermometer position of the heat storage tank at a predetermined time is set so that economical operation that effectively uses nighttime electric power and that the daytime electric power demand can be leveled out, Monitoring can also be realized.

Further, since a prediction action is premised, a mechanism is provided for providing operation guidance corresponding to the momentary change of the process so that stable supply can be realized even if an error occurs in the load prediction. Thus, a more stable supply can be realized. Further, the control device incorporates a time zone, a day mode, and a season mode, and can realize safe driving regardless of day and time throughout the year. In addition, since the accurate operation status can be displayed, the stable supply of heat and the quality of the safe operation of the heat source device can be improved, and the occurrence of an erroneous operation can be prevented.

[0043]

As described above, according to the operating condition monitoring apparatus of the present invention, for example, one hour or the like is obtained from the supply forecast value for a certain long term such as several hours to one day and the current operating condition. Predicts the driving situation in a relatively short time ahead, judges whether the prediction is valid, and if the driving situation is expected to deviate from the allowable range, the operator avoids the deviation in advance Operation guidance is given. Therefore, even an unskilled operator can stably supply the necessary heat to the heat load and can cope with sudden load fluctuations, realizing efficient and stable operation of the entire system. it can.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a schematic configuration of an operation status monitoring device according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing the operation of the apparatus of the embodiment.

[Explanation of symbols]

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 ... Heat production heat storage apparatus, 2 ... Cooling heat pump, 3 ... Heat recovery type heat pump, 4 ... Cold water tank, 5 ... Hot water tank, 6 ... Water pump, 7 ... Hot water header, 8 ... Cold water header, 9 ... Heat load, 10a, 10b, 10c: thermometer, 11: flow meter,
12 ... measured value, 21 ... input device, 22 ... arithmetic device, 23
... CRT display device, 24 ... Man-machine input device, 25 ...
Run / stop command, 26: output device, 27: heat source control device.

──────────────────────────────────────────────────続 き Continued on front page (51) Int.Cl. ⁶ Identification code FI G05D 23/19 G05D 23/19 H

Claims (1)

(57) [Claims] An operation status monitoring device for monitoring an operation status of a heat production and heat storage device that supplies heat to a heat load for obtaining a predetermined temperature atmosphere, comprising a past supply according to a day of the week, a season, and a time zone. Supply flow rate prediction means for predicting a supply flow value of heat supplied to the heat load for a predetermined period based on a flow rate result, and a current operation state in the heat production and heat storage device and the predicted supply flow value, An operating condition estimating unit for estimating an operating condition a short time ahead of a predetermined period, an operating condition determining unit for determining whether or not the predicted operating condition deviates from an allowable range, and the operating condition determining unit includes: When determining a deviation from the allowable range, a driving operation correction amount calculating unit that calculates a correction amount of the driving operation such that the driving state does not deviate from the allowable range,
An operation status monitoring device comprising: an operation correction guide output unit that outputs the calculated operation correction amount as a driving operation guide.