JPH1145109A - Operation support device - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To actualize the efficient operation and safe operation of a large-scale plant irrelevantly to the time and operators by always monitoring the plant and storing past and current operation data, and predicting an operation state and controlling the plant so that the operation schedule and operation state will not deviate from allowable ranges. SOLUTION: A supply quantity predicting function 100 predicts a supply quantity from the current supply quantity of monitor data of the plant 1 and a short-time future operation state predicting function 101 predicts a short-time future operation state from the inputted monitor data and the predicted value of the supply quantity. An operation state predicting function 103 predicts the operation state at the time of operation based upon the operation schedule and equipment operation set by an equipment operation and schedule setting function 102 and an operation state deciding function 104 decides whether or not the predicted operation state is within the allowable range set by a parameter setting function 111. When the predicted operation state is within the allowable range, an operation state explaining function 106 displays the predicted operation state and decision result and the operation of the plant 1 is controlled through an output device 120.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to an operation support apparatus for monitoring and controlling plants such as water supply and sewerage facilities and heat supply facilities in a building area. In particular, the present invention relates to an operation support device for monitoring and controlling a plant in which it is effective to statistically predict a supply amount or the like in a plant having an integral element (for example, a pond or a water tank).

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art In the case of facilities where the supply to consumers is public (water supply and sewage, heat supply business, etc.), there are provisions for supply,
Supply cannot be cut off. Therefore, it has an integral element,
The plant is structured so that supply is not interrupted at any time. In addition, efficient use of the integral element enables efficient operation of facilities for smoothing power by converting electric power into heat at night and storing heat, and using water tanks to cover peak loads and operate facilities. It is necessary to realize a stable operation of the plant that realizes the leveling.

[0003] In these operations, operators perform operations for realizing appropriate plant control from the viewpoint of ensuring stable supply, safe operation of equipment, and efficient operation of facilities. Actually, the operator determines the operation schedule of the equipment from the forecast of the supply amount based on past measured data and empirical knowledge, constantly monitors the plant status and the operation status of the equipment, and switches the equipment according to the change in the situation. Operate or change the driving schedule. Further, the equipment is constantly operated so as not to be abnormally operated while monitoring the operation state of the plant.

In such a method, it is necessary for a specialized operator to constantly monitor. However, it is difficult to secure a specialized operator, and a monitoring and control device that substitutes for the intelligent operation of the operator is required. Further, even if an operator who can constantly monitor can be secured, there is a case where prompt and appropriate measures cannot be taken in spite of deviation of the supply amount prediction or deviation of the operation schedule. Furthermore, since it is difficult for one operator to constantly monitor, the operation may vary due to differences in the experience of multiple operators,
There has been a problem that the quality of stable supply and the safe operation of the plant deteriorates, and in some cases, an operation error occurs.

[0005]

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances, and instead of the experience of a veteran operator who is difficult to secure, the plant is constantly monitored to accumulate past and present operation data and to monitor the operation status. Operation that controls the plant so that the expected operation and operating conditions do not deviate from the allowable range, and displays the operating conditions, the corrected operation, the operating schedule, and the occurrence of abnormalities. It is to provide a support device. In short, it is an object of the present invention to provide an operation support device capable of realizing efficient operation and stable operation of a large-scale plant regardless of time and operators.

[0006]

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION The present invention provides means for predicting the amount of supply consumed in a predetermined period using past results, and predicting an operating state shortly after the current plant operation. Means, means for setting a permissible range of plant operation, means for determining whether the expected result of the operating condition shortly ahead is within the set permissible range, and the operating condition expected from this determination result will be described. It is a driving support device provided with means. This operation support device includes means for allowing an operator to set the operation of equipment to control the plant, means for predicting the operation state of the plant from the prediction of the supply amount and the operation setting of the equipment, Means for setting the permissible range of plant operation, means for determining whether an expected operating condition is within the permissible operating range, and means for setting the operation of the equipment when the determination result is good. Also have. Further, if it is determined that the above determination result does not fall within the allowable operation range, the operation setting of the device is corrected so that the future operation condition is within the allowable operation range from the predicted supply amount and the allowable operation condition range. Means for estimating the driving situation from the corrected operation, means for explaining the driving situation and the corrected operation to the operator, and means for setting the corrected equipment operation.

[0007]

Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram of a driving support device showing one embodiment of the present invention. 100 is a supply amount prediction function for predicting the supply amount consumed in a predetermined period using the past supply amount results according to the day of the week mode, season, and time zone, and 101 is a short-range based on the current operation state of the heat supply facility. A short-term prediction function for predicting a situation ahead of time, 102 is a machine operation / operation schedule setting function that allows an operator to set a device operation schedule or operate a device, and 103 is a predicted value of the supply amount and a device An operation status prediction function 104 for predicting the future operation status of the plant from the operation schedule, an operation status determination function 104 for determining whether the operation status predicted by the operation status prediction function 103 is within an allowable range, and 105 an allowable status. If it is determined that the vehicle is not within the range, the device operation / operation schedule correction function 106 for correcting the operation schedule and the device operation set to be within the allowable range is the function 101, 10 described above.
Function for explaining the driving situation expected in 3,104, 11
0 is a device for inputting monitoring data from the plant 1, 111
Is a parameter setting function for plant operation, and 120 is an operation schedule or a function set by the device operation / operation schedule setting function 102 or corrected by the device operation / operation schedule correction function 105 so as not to deviate from the allowable range. A device for outputting equipment operation to a plant.
It is a display device for displaying the explanation of the driving situation obtained in step 06.

In FIG. 1, an input device 110 inputs monitoring data of a plant 1 to a supply amount predicting function 100. The supply amount prediction function 100 predicts the supply amount based on the input current supply amount. The short-term operation state prediction function 101 predicts the short-term operation state from the input monitoring data and the supply amount prediction output from the supply amount prediction function 100. This expected result is presented to the operator via the display device 130 by the driving situation explanation function 106.

The operation schedule set by the device operation / operation schedule setting function 102 and the operation status when the operation according to the device operation is performed are predicted by the operation status prediction function 103.
The driving situation estimation function 10
It is determined whether the operation condition predicted in 3 is operated within the allowable range set by the parameter setting function 111. When the determination result is good, the predicted operation status and the determination result are presented to the operator via the display device 130 by the operation status description function 106 and output via the output device 120, and the plant 1 is controlled by the operation control. Is done.

When it is determined by the driving status determination function 104 that the vehicle is out of the allowable range, the operation schedule and the device operation are corrected by the device operation / operation schedule correction function 105 so that the vehicle is driven within the allowable range. . The operation result explanation function 106 presents the correction result and the predicted operation state after the correction to the operator via the display device 130, and further outputs the correction result via the output device 120 to control the operation of the plant 1. .

Hereinafter, a supply heat quantity prediction function 100 which is the core of the driving support function, an operation state prediction function 101 for a short time ahead, a device operation / operation schedule setting function 102, an operation state prediction function 1
03, the operation of the operation status determination function 104, the device operation / operation schedule correction function 105, and the operation status explanation function 106 will be described using a heat supply system in a building area as an example.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing the operation of one day of the processing for supporting the driving situation shortly ahead. FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing the operation of one day of the process for supporting the monitoring control. Forecasting the supply amount in a certain prediction cycle (for example, 1 hour)
A description will now be given of the results of the case where the operation status is predicted at a certain monitoring period (for example, 5 minutes).

In the heat supply system, future operation conditions are predicted in accordance with equipment operations and operation schedules set by the operator as needed. If the future operation status falls within the allowable operation range, the set device operation and operation schedule are output to the plant. Further, when the value is out of the allowable range, the device operation and the operation schedule are corrected, and the operation state is predicted. The results of these operating conditions are explained, the corrected equipment operation and operation schedule are output, and the operation of the plant is controlled.

Next, processing performed in each function will be described in detail. First, after a parameter setting function 111 sets parameters S1 such as a mode for each day of the week, a seasonal and weather forecast value, and an allowable range of operation, various periodic prediction processes, that is, a supply heat amount prediction process S2, The operation status prediction process S3, the future operation status determination process S4, the device operation / operation schedule correction S5, and the operation status description S6 are executed.

The supply heat quantity prediction processing S2 is executed at every prediction cycle for predicting / determining the operating condition. The supply time record yMT (k, i-1) and yMT (k, i-
If 2) is obtained, the supply amount prediction value yMT (k, i) at the next time is predicted by the equation (1) using a well-known autoregressive model.

YMT (k, i) = a1 · (yMT (k, i−1) −yMT (i−1)) + a2 · (yMT (k, i−2) −yMT (i−2)) + · (1) Here, yMT (k, i) is the supply amount prediction value [0/00 / hour] at time i in the time zone T of the day, yMT (i) is the average supply amount at time i, and a1, a2,..., b are parameters. Here, a1, a2,..., And b are model parameters, which can be given in advance, and can be sequentially estimated in real time by least-squares (Kalman filter).

The short-term operation status prediction process S3 predicts the operation status of the plant for each monitoring cycle. The predicted operating state of the plant includes the time before the time, such as temperature and water quality, which change every moment, the actual results of the previous time, zMT (k, i−1), and zMT.
Assuming that (k, i−2) is obtained, the supply amount prediction value zMT (k, i) at the next time is calculated using a well-known autoregressive model.
Is predicted by equation (2).

ZMT (k, i) = a1 · (zMT (k, i−1) −zMT (i−1)) + a2 · (zMT (k, i−2) −zMT (i−2)) + · (2) where zMT (k, i) is the result of time i in the time zone T of the day [0/00 / hour], zMT (i) is the average of time i, a1, a
2,..., B are parameters. Note that a1, a
2,..., B are parameters of the model, which can be given in advance, and can be sequentially estimated in real time by least-squares (Kalman filter). For the flow rate, pond water level, heat storage amount, etc., the current equipment operating state is estimated from the predicted supply amount, temperature, water quality, etc. I do. Further, it is predicted how the operation status of the plant changes due to the operation schedule and operation of the plant equipment set by the operator and the operation set based on the equipment specifications and capacity of the equipment. As is well known, the predictive calculation of the operation state of the plant is formulated by simultaneous equations and difference equations based on a motion equation and a flow balance equation showing plant characteristics, and can be calculated by a well-known numerical calculation technique. The future operation status determination process S4 is performed based on the calculated expected transition indicating the operation status of the plant and the set operation allowable range. For example, if the pond water level does not deviate from the set upper and lower limits, the water quality does not exceed the set upper limit, the heat storage does not deviate from the set upper and lower limits, the flow rate does not exceed the equipment rating, etc. Incorporating a situation determination standard, the quality of the device operation / operation schedule set by the operator or the corrected device operation / operation schedule is determined.

The device operation / operation schedule correction S5 improves the device operation / operation schedule when the set device operation / operation schedule is determined to deviate from the allowable operation range in the operation status determination in S4. The improvement method is shown below. In the case of device operation: When there are multiple operating devices, additional operation and additional stop are performed, but in the case of a single device, the operation and stop operations are not performed. In the case of scheduled driving: extend, shorten, procrastinate, and move forward the driving schedule.

The description of the operating condition S6 executes the following processing to explain the operating condition. The simulation display of the expected driving situation simulates the passage of time and shows a change in the driving situation up to a short time. The evaluation of the set device operation / operation schedule indicates an improved device operation and operation schedule when the operation status deviates from the allowable range due to the set device operation. Alarm display (alarming) of the time when the driving condition deviates from the allowable range.

[0021]

According to the present invention, there is no need for the operator to monitor all the time, and the intellectual work of the operator can be replaced. In addition, since the prediction of the supply amount and the prediction of the plant operation state are corrected based on the actual results, the operation state can be predicted by always using the correct predicted value. As a result, economical operation that effectively uses electric power becomes possible, daytime electric power demand can be leveled, the plant can be operated smoothly, and the plant and equipment can be operated efficiently. Can be realized.

Since scheduled operation is based on planned control, correction processing is added so that stable operation can be realized even if an error occurs in load prediction. Furthermore, by providing guidance corresponding to the moment-to-moment change of the process, further stable operation can be realized.

Further, since the accurate operation status can be guided, the quality of the stable operation of the plant and the safe operation of the equipment can be improved, and a monitoring control function capable of preventing the occurrence of operation errors can be provided.

Although the present embodiment describes a function for guiding future driving conditions by prediction, a method for automatically learning the deviation of the model used for the prediction is provided to provide a more stable driving. It is possible to monitor and control the situation.

The effects of the present invention are as follows. Economical operation that makes effective use of nighttime power becomes possible. Daytime power demand leveling can be achieved. By performing planned control, useless operation and lossy operation can be avoided, and efficient operation can be realized. A stable supply can always be provided to consumers. Efficiently utilize water tanks that can handle peak loads, facilities (plants)
Driving can be leveled. Throughout the year, it is possible to obtain a monitoring function that is not affected by the day of the week or time zone.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram showing one embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing the operation of the driving device for supporting the driving situation shortly ahead according to the present invention.

FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing the operation of the driving support device for supporting monitoring control according to the present invention.

[Explanation of symbols]

 DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Plant 100 Supply amount prediction function 101 Operation prediction function in a short time ahead 102 Equipment operation / operation schedule setting function 103 Operation state prediction function 104 Operation state judgment function 105 Equipment operation / operation schedule correction function 106 Operation state explanation function 110 Input device 111 Parameter setting function 120 Output device 130 Display device

──────────────────────────────────────────────────続 き Continued on the front page (51) Int.Cl. ⁶ Identification code FI G01D 21/00 G01D 21/00 Q

Claims (3)

[Claims] In a large-scale plant monitoring and control system, means for predicting a supply amount consumed in a predetermined period using past results, predicting an operating state shortly after a current plant operation. Means for setting a permissible range of plant operation, means for determining whether the expected result of the operating condition in the short time ahead falls within the set permissible range, and operating condition predicted from this determination result. A driving assistance device comprising: 2. A means for predicting a supply amount consumed in a predetermined period using past performance in a large-scale plant monitoring and control system, wherein an operator sets operation of equipment to control the plant. Means, means for predicting the operating condition of the plant from the prediction of the supply amount and the operation setting of the equipment, means for explaining the expected operating condition, means for setting the allowable range of plant operation, expected operating condition A driving support device comprising: means for judging whether the value falls within a set allowable driving range; and means for setting the operation of the device when the judgment result is good. 3. A monitoring and control apparatus for a large-scale plant, a means for predicting a supply amount consumed in a predetermined period using past results, and setting an operation of equipment for controlling an plant by an operator. Means for predicting the operating condition of the plant from the predicted value of the supply amount and the operation setting of the equipment, means for explaining the expected operating condition, means for setting the allowable operating range of the plant, expected operation Means for determining whether the situation is within the set operation allowable range. If it is determined that the result is not within the operation allowance range, the future operation status is calculated based on the predicted supply amount and the operation status allowable range. Means for correcting the operation setting of the device such that the operation range is within the allowable operation range, predicting the operation state from the corrected operation, a means for explaining the operation state and the corrected operation to the operator, and the correction A driving support device including means for setting a later device operation.