JP2023058336A - Prediction device, prediction method, image forming apparatus, and delivery system - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide an image forming apparatus that, when a sudden change in the usage of a consumable item occurs, can predict a remaining period in which the consumable item can be used according to the sudden change in the usage.SOLUTION: An image forming apparatus predicts a remaining period in which toner stored in a toner bottle can be used, and comprises: a storage circuit 160 that stores the history of the usage of a consumable item; a peak determination unit 144 that determines a peak usage in the fluctuation of the usage from the usage per unit time exceeding a threshold, of the usages present in the history; and a period calculation unit 145 that calculates the remaining period in which the toner can be used by using the acquired remaining amount and peak usage.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 6

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD The present disclosure relates to technology for predicting the remaining usable period of a consumable in a device provided with the consumable.

2. Description of the Related Art In multifunction peripherals (MFPs) having scanner, printer, and copier functions, toner bottles containing toner are used, and these toner bottles need to be replaced periodically.

According to Patent Document 1, the average usage amount for each day of the week, the total usage amount for each week, or the total usage amount for each month is calculated using the usage history of consumables, and the usage frequency pattern is determined using the calculation results. Based on the derived use frequency pattern, it predicts the time to replace the consumables. By preparing consumables according to the predicted replacement time, the user can shorten the stop time of the device due to the expiry of the life of the consumables and improve the operating efficiency of the device.

JP 2012-27245 A

According to Patent Document 1, using the usage history of consumables, for example, the average usage amount for each day of the week is calculated. to predict. Here, in the usage history of consumables, if the usage amount changes rapidly, but the average usage amount does not change even if there is no sudden change in the usage amount, the same usage frequency pattern is derived, and the same replacement timing is predicted. However, if there is a sudden change in usage after the replacement timing is predicted, the consumables may reach the end of their life before the predicted replacement timing.

This problem occurs not only in toner bottles, but also in consumables such as photosensitive drums and intermediate transfer belts. In addition to the image forming apparatus, it also occurs in home electric appliances such as mobile phones, passenger cars, trains, etc., which are equipped with a secondary battery for storing power, which is a consumable item. It commonly occurs in devices with consumables.

The present disclosure solves the above problems, and provides a prediction device that can predict the remaining usable period of consumables according to a sudden change in the amount of use when a sudden change in the amount of use of consumables occurs. It is an object of the present invention to provide a prediction method, an image forming apparatus and a delivery system.

In order to achieve the above object, one aspect of the present disclosure is a prediction device for predicting the remaining usable period of a consumable, comprising storage means for storing a history of usage of the consumable; Remaining amount obtaining means for obtaining a remaining amount; Peak determination means for determining a peak usage amount in fluctuations of the usage amount from usage amounts per unit time exceeding a threshold among the usage amounts in the history; and period calculating means for calculating a remaining usable period of the consumable by using the remaining amount and the peak usage amount.

Here, the period calculation means may calculate the remaining period during which the consumable can be used by dividing the acquired remaining amount by the peak usage amount.

Here, a time acquiring means for acquiring the time at which the remaining amount is acquired, and the remaining period calculated by the period calculating means is added to the acquired time to renew the container storing the consumables. A time calculation means may be provided for calculating a scheduled replacement time for replacing the container or a scheduled filling time for newly filling the container storing the consumables with the consumables.

Here, when a plurality of intervals including a usage amount per unit time exceeding a threshold is extracted from the usage amount in the history, the peak determination means determines the maximum usage amount from each of the plurality of extracted intervals. Quantities may be sampled and a plurality of sampled maximal usages may be used to determine said peak usage.

Here, the determination of the peak usage amount may be performed by calculating an arithmetic mean of the plurality of extracted maximum usage amounts.

Here, when the threshold is set as the first threshold and a value larger than the first threshold is set as the second threshold, the peak determination means excludes the usage amount larger than the second threshold from the usage history. , a plurality of maximal usage amounts may be extracted.

Here, the peak determination means may extract a plurality of maximal usage amounts by excluding usage amounts other than a predetermined period from the usage history.

Here, the peak determining means may extract a plurality of maximal usage amounts by using the usage amount after the point in time when the remaining amount of consumables becomes equal to or less than the remaining amount threshold from the usage amount history. .

Here, the period calculation means divides the remaining amount obtained by subtracting the usage amount within the period required for delivery of the container storing the consumables from the obtained remaining amount by the peak usage amount to obtain the remaining period. can be calculated.

Further, one aspect of the present disclosure is a prediction method used in a prediction device that stores a history of usage of consumables and predicts the remaining usable period of consumables, a remaining amount obtaining step for obtaining a remaining amount; a peak determining step for determining a peak usage amount in fluctuations in the usage amount from among usage amounts per unit time exceeding a threshold among the usage amounts existing in the history; and a period calculation step of calculating a remaining period during which the consumable can be used using the peak usage amount.

Another aspect of the present disclosure is an image forming apparatus including the prediction device described above.

Here, the prediction device further includes a time acquisition means for acquiring the time when the remaining amount is acquired, and a remaining period is added to the acquired time to newly store the container storing the consumables. and a time calculation means for calculating a scheduled replacement time for replacing the container, and the image forming apparatus further determines a shipping time for the new container using the scheduled replacement time calculated by the prediction device. A timing determination means and a notification means for notifying the management device that manages the containers of the determined shipping timing may be provided.

Here, the timing determining means determines the shipping timing of the container based on the scheduled replacement time, the inventory information of the container in the facility where the image forming apparatus is installed, and the allowable inventory number of the container in the facility. may be determined.

Here, the allowable stock quantity may be determined based on the history of the amount of consumables used per unit time stored in the storage means.

Here, if the usage amount per unit time of the consumables stored in the storage means is greater than a predetermined value, the allowable stock quantity may be determined to be 1 or more.

Here, the allowable stock quantity may be determined to be zero when the usage amount per unit time of the consumables stored in the storage means is smaller than a predetermined value.

Here, further, a detection unit for determining whether or not the remaining amount of consumables is near empty, and when the detection unit determines that the remaining amount of consumables is near empty, new storage is immediately performed. A timing determining means for determining the shipping timing may be provided so as to ship the body.

In this case, setting means for setting the time required for delivery of the container is further provided, and the timing determination means determines the shipping time of the container using the scheduled replacement time and the time required for delivery of the container. may

Here, the setting means may set the time required for delivery of the containing body based on the address of the facility where the image forming apparatus is installed and the address of the delivery source to which the containing body is to be delivered.

19. The image forming apparatus according to claim 18, comprising:

Further, one aspect of the present disclosure is characterized by a delivery system including the image forming apparatus and the management apparatus described above.

According to the above configuration, when there is a sudden change in the amount of consumables used, the remaining usable period of the consumables can be predicted according to the sudden change in the amount of use. Then, if a new container storing consumables is prepared, or if the container is newly filled with consumables, the stop time of the device due to the end of use of the consumables stored in the container can be reduced. It has an excellent effect that it can be shortened and the operating efficiency of the apparatus can be improved.

The structure of the delivery system 1 is shown. FIG. 3 is a graph 301 showing the relationship between the passage of time (days) and the remaining amount of toner. FIG. 31 is a graph 311 showing changes in the toner consumption rate Rd with variations. Fig. 321 is a graph 321 showing changes in the remaining amount of toner when the toner consumption rate Rd varies; Fig. 331 is a graph 331 showing transitions of two types of toner consumption rate Rd; 2 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a control circuit 100; FIG. 3 shows the data structure of a history information table 201. FIG. (a) shows the data structure of the exchange date 221; (b) shows the data structure of the investigation period 231; FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining processing in a peak determination unit 144, a period calculation unit 145, and a period calculation unit 146; 3 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a server device 4; FIG. It is a flowchart which shows operation|movement of the whole history process, peak determination process, and period time process. 4 is a flow chart showing the operation of peak determination processing; It is a flowchart which shows operation|movement of a period time process. FIG. 5 is a graph 501 showing changes in toner consumption rate Rd.

1 Embodiment A delivery system 1 as one embodiment according to the present disclosure will be described with reference to the drawings.

1.1 Delivery system 1
The delivery system 1 is configured by connecting an image forming device 5 and a server device 4 to each other via a network 2, as shown in FIG.

The image forming apparatus 5 is installed in a general office. The image forming apparatus 5 predicts the scheduled replacement date of a toner bottle (consumable) that stores toner (consumables), and transmits the predicted scheduled replacement date to the server device 4 via the network 2. .

The server device 4 is installed in a management center that manages the toner bottles of the image forming device 5 . The server device 4 receives the scheduled replacement date of the toner bottle attached to the image forming device 5 from the image forming device 5 via the network 2, and stores the received scheduled replacement date. The manager of the management center arranges delivery of a new toner bottle to the office where the image forming apparatus 5 is installed before the scheduled replacement date of the toner bottle stored in the server device 4. .

1.2 Image forming apparatus 5
The image forming apparatus 5, as shown in FIG. 1, is a tandem-type color multifunction machine having the functions of a scanner, a printer, and a copier.

As shown in this figure, the image forming apparatus 5 is provided with a paper feeding section 13 for containing and feeding recording sheets at the bottom of the housing. A printer 12 that forms an image by electrophotography is provided above the paper feeding unit 13 . Further above the printer 12, there are provided an image reader 11 that reads a document and generates image data, and an operation panel 19 that displays an operation screen and accepts input operations from the user.

The image reader 11 has an automatic document feeder. The automatic document feeder conveys the documents set on the document tray one by one to the document glass plate via the transport path. The image reader 11 reads a document conveyed to a predetermined position on the document glass plate by an automatic document feeder or an image placed on the document glass plate by the user by moving the scanner. Image data consisting of green (G) and blue (B) multivalued digital signals is obtained.

The image data of each color component obtained by the image reader 11 undergoes various data processing in the control circuit 100, and furthermore, each reproduction color of yellow (Y), magenta (M), cyan (C), and black (K) is reproduced. Converted to image data.

The printer 12 has an intermediate transfer belt 21 stretched by a drive roller, a driven roller, and a backup roller, a secondary transfer roller 22, and an intermediate transfer belt 21 facing the intermediate transfer belt 21 along the running direction X of the intermediate transfer belt 21 at a predetermined interval. image forming units 20Y, 20M, 20C, and 20K, a fixing unit 50, a control circuit 100, and the like.

The image forming units 20Y, 20M, 20C, and 20K form Y, M, C, and K toner images, respectively. Specifically, each image forming unit includes a photoreceptor drum as an image carrier, an LED array for exposing and scanning the surface of the photoreceptor drum, a charging charger, a developing device, a cleaner, a primary transfer roller, and the like.

Above the intermediate transfer belt 21, toner bottles 31Y, 31M, 31C, and 31K are detachably provided above the image forming units 20Y, 20M, 20C, and 20K with the intermediate transfer belt 25 interposed therebetween. . The toner bottles 31Y, 31M, 31C, and 31K contain toners of respective colors Y, M, C, and K, respectively. Supply mechanisms 33Y, 33M, 33C, and 33K supply the image forming units 20Y, 20M, 20C, and 20K.

Further, on the sides of the toner bottles 31Y, 31M, 31C and 31K, it is detected that the toner contained in the toner bottles 31Y, 31M, 31C and 31K is near empty. Detecting sensors 32Y, 32M, 32C, and 32K (detecting units) are provided for determining whether or not the amount is equal to or less than a predetermined value. Here, the predetermined value is a value very close to 0, such as 2% of the initial filling amount of the toner bottle.

The paper feed unit 13 is composed of paper feed cassettes 60, 61, and 62 for storing recording sheets of different sizes, and pickup rollers 63, 64, and 65 for feeding out the recording sheets from the respective paper feed cassettes onto the transport path. ing.

In each of the image forming units 20Y to 20K, each photoreceptor drum is uniformly charged by a charging charger and exposed by an LED array to form an electrostatic latent image on the surface of the photoreceptor drum. Each electrostatic latent image is developed by a corresponding color developing device to form a Y to K toner image on the surface of each photosensitive drum. The images are sequentially transferred onto the surface of the intermediate transfer belt 21 by the electrostatic action of each primary transfer roller.

The image forming timing of each color is shifted so that the Y to K toner images are transferred in multiple layers on the intermediate transfer belt 21 .

On the other hand, a recording sheet is fed from one of the paper feed cassettes of the paper feed unit 13 in synchronization with the image forming operations of the image forming units 20Y to 20K.

The recording sheet is conveyed on the conveying path to the secondary transfer position where the secondary transfer roller 22 and the backup roller face each other with the intermediate transfer belt 21 interposed therebetween. As a result, the Y to K toner images multiple-transferred on the intermediate transfer belt 21 are secondarily transferred to the recording sheet. The recording sheet on which the Y to K color toner images have been secondarily transferred is further conveyed to the fixing section 50 .

When the toner image on the surface of the recording sheet passes through the fixing nip formed between the heating roller 51 of the fixing section 50 and the pressure roller 52 in pressure contact therewith, the toner image is heated and pressed onto the recording sheet. After being fused and fixed on the surface, the recording sheet passes through the fixing section 50 and is delivered to the discharge tray 15 .

The operation panel 19 is provided with a display section composed of a liquid crystal display panel, etc., and displays the content set by the user, various messages, the scheduled replacement date of the toner bottle, and the like. The operation panel 19 accepts an instruction to start copying, setting of the number of copies, setting of copying conditions, setting of a data output destination, and the like from the user, and notifies the control circuit 100 of the received contents. The operation panel 19 also has a speaker. A speaker converts an analog audio signal into sound and outputs the sound. The speaker notifies the user of the scheduled replacement date of the toner bottle by voice, for example.

1.3 Prediction of Toner Bottle Replacement Timing According to the Present Disclosure (1) Relation Between Elapsed Time and Remaining Toner Here, the relationship between the lapse of time and remaining toner will be described.

Here, the toner consumption amount per predetermined period is defined as the toner consumption rate. The predetermined period may be "one day" or "one week", or may be "a period required for toner delivery". Here, the toner consumption amount per day is defined as the toner consumption rate Rd.

Assuming that Rd is always constant, the number of days N required after the toner bottle is replaced until the toner is empty is
N=(toner filling amount)/Rd
(See FIG. 2).

A graph 301 shown in FIG. 2 shows the relationship between the passage of time (days) and the remaining amount of toner. A horizontal axis 302 indicates the passage of time, and a vertical axis 303 indicates the remaining amount of toner in the toner bottle. A straight line 304 is a prediction line indicating the amount of remaining toner that decreases over time. Since it is assumed that Rd is always constant, the remaining amount of toner decreases linearly and monotonously.

(2) Variation in Toner Consumption Rate Rd In reality, however, the frequency of use of the image forming apparatus is not constant, and there are days when the print volume is high and days when the print volume is low, and the toner consumption rate Rd varies. FIG. 3 shows changes in the toner consumption rate Rd with variations, and FIG. 4 shows changes in the remaining amount of toner when the toner consumption rate Rd varies.

A graph 311 shown in FIG. 3 shows the relationship between the passage of time (days) and the varying toner consumption rate. A horizontal axis 312 indicates the passage of time, and a vertical axis 313 indicates the toner consumption rate. A polygonal line 314 indicates the actually measured fluctuating toner consumption rate over time. Here, the graph 311 shows the average value 315 of the toner consumption rate.

A graph 321 shown in FIG. 4 shows the relationship between the passage of time (days) and the remaining amount of toner when the toner consumption rate varies. A horizontal axis 322 indicates the passage of time, and a vertical axis 313 indicates the remaining amount of toner. A straight line 324 is a prediction line indicating the remaining amount of toner when the toner consumption rate does not vary, and a polygonal line 325 indicates the measured remaining amount of toner when the toner consumption rate varies.

Here, an intersection point 327 between the polygonal line 325 and the horizontal axis 322 indicates the day when the toner bottle becomes empty (toner bottle empty day) when the amount of remaining toner changes due to the varying toner consumption rate. An intersection point 326 between the straight line 324 and the horizontal axis 322 indicates the empty date of the toner bottle when the remaining amount of toner changes according to the constant toner consumption rate.

As shown in this figure, intersection point 327 precedes intersection point 326 .

As described above, the toner consumption rate usually varies, so it is difficult to accurately predict the day when the toner bottle will become empty.

In particular, as shown in FIG. 4, the toner bottle empty date (intersection point 327) when the toner consumption rate varies is earlier than the toner bottle empty date (intersection point 326) when the toner consumption rate does not vary. If this happens, delivery of toner bottles to users may be delayed. On the other hand, if the toner bottles are delivered early with an excessive amount of time to spare, it is not preferable because the inventory will be surplus.

Therefore, there is a need for a toner delivery system that does not delay delivery while preventing surplus inventory as much as possible.

(3) Comparison of Two Types of Toner Consumption Rate Two types of toner consumption rate are compared.

A graph 331 shown in FIG. 5 shows the relationship between the passage of time (days) and two types of toner consumption rates. A horizontal axis 332 indicates the passage of time, and a vertical axis 333 indicates the toner consumption rate. A polygonal line 334 indicates the toner consumption rate of pattern A over time. A polygonal line 335 indicates the toner consumption rate of pattern B over time. Here, the graph 331 shows the average value 336 of the toner consumption rate.

Here, the variation in the toner consumption rate of pattern B is greater than the variation in the toner consumption rate of pattern A. On the other hand, the average value of the toner consumption rate of pattern B and the average value of the toner consumption rate of pattern A match.

In both cases, the toner bottle empty days predicted from the mean values are the same. However, the prediction error, which is the difference between the predicted empty date and the actual empty date, is larger in pattern B than in pattern A. Therefore, if the prediction error is not greatly estimated for the usage history such as pattern B, the delivery of the toner bottle will be delayed.

(4) Method of Predicting Replacement Timing of Toner Bottle A method of predicting the timing of toner bottle replacement will be described with reference to FIG. 9 as an example.

A graph 341 shown in FIG. 9 shows the relationship between the passage of time (days) and the varying toner consumption rate. A horizontal axis 342 indicates the passage of time, and a vertical axis 343 indicates the toner consumption rate. A line 344 is the same as the line 314 shown in FIG. 3 and indicates the toner consumption rate that varies over time. Here, the graph 341 shows the average value Rd_avg (349) of the toner consumption rate.

From the history information of the usage amount of the toner bottle per unit time, all the history information including the usage amount that is included in the predetermined investigation period 231 and exceeds the predetermined threshold value Rd_th (348, first threshold value) is extracted. As an example, in the case shown in FIG. 9, history information included in sections 351, 352, and 353 is extracted. This is because the usage amounts in the history information included in the sections 351, 352, and 353 exceed the threshold Rd_th (348).

Here, the threshold Rd_th may be determined as follows.

Using all the history information in the history information table 201, a frequency distribution table of usage amounts per unit time is created. In other words, a plurality of classes including the usage amount per unit time are created, the usage amount of all history information is determined in which class, and the usage amount frequency is counted for each class.

For example, the first class includes frequencies of usage from amount '1' to amount '99'. The second class includes frequencies of usage from amount '100' to amount '199'. The third class includes frequencies of usage from amount '200' to amount '299'. Similarly, the n-th class includes frequencies of usage amounts from "10000" to "10099". Here, it is assumed that the amount “10099” is the maximum value among the usage amounts included in the history information in the history information table 201 .

Among the total values of all frequencies in the frequency distribution table thus generated, the representative value of the class dividing the total value of the upper 20% range and the total value of the lower 80% range may be determined as the threshold value Rd_th. .

Next, the maximum usage amount (maximum value) is extracted from each interval. As an example, in the case shown in FIG. 9, the maximum usage amount 345 within the section 351 is extracted. Similarly, for the sections 352 and 353, the maximum usage amounts 346 and 347 within the respective sections are extracted. Here, usage amounts 345, 346, and 347 are indicated by usage amounts Rd2, Rd9, and Rd13, respectively.

Next, an average value Rd_max (peak usage) of the extracted maximum usage is calculated by the following formula.

Average value Rd_max=(ΣRdi)/n
Here, ΣRdi indicates the total sum of extracted maximum usage amounts, and n indicates the number of extracted maximum usage amounts.

As shown in FIG. 9, as an example, the average value Rd_max=(ΣRd2, Rd9, Rd13)/3 (362).

Next, a graph 371 shown in FIG. 9 shows the relationship between the passage of time (days) and the remaining amount of toner. A horizontal axis 372 indicates the passage of time, and a vertical axis 373 indicates the remaining amount of toner. A straight line 381 and a straight line 382 (prediction lines) show the transition of the remaining amount of toner that decreases over time when the toner consumption rate is uniform. The toner bottle was replaced with a new one on the previous replacement date 374 . The straight line 381 and the straight line 382 predict the next scheduled replacement date 377 in the case of the uniform toner consumption rate. A straight line 383 indicates the transition of the remaining amount of toner obtained by the prediction of the present disclosure.

Using the remaining amount of the toner bottle at the present time (judgment date 375) and the average value Rd_max, the remaining days are calculated (378) by the following formula.

Remaining days = current remaining amount/average value Rd_max
Next, the next scheduled replacement date 376 of the toner bottle is calculated (379) using the following formula.

Next Scheduled Exchange Date=Today (Judgment Date, that is, Current Time)+Remaining Days Thus, the original straight line 382 (prediction line) shown in FIG. 9 is replaced with a new straight line 383 (prediction line).

As described above, the next scheduled replacement date (376) of the toner bottle is estimated.

According to the above method, using the past usage amount of toner, which is a consumable item, which changed rapidly, and assuming that a similar abrupt change may occur in the future, the transition of the remaining amount of the consumable item is calculated. Since the prediction is made, the remaining usable period of the consumable can be predicted when a rapid change in the usage amount of the consumable occurs.

1.4 Control circuit 100
As shown in FIG. 6, the control circuit 100 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 151, a ROM (Read Only Memory) 152, a RAM (Random Access Memory) 153, an image memory 154, an image processing circuit 155, a network communication circuit 156, It comprises a scanner control circuit 157, an input/output circuit 158, a printer control circuit 159, a memory circuit 160, an output circuit 162, a timer circuit 163, an input/output circuit 167, a bus 166, and the like.

CPU 151, ROM 152, RAM 153, image memory 154, image processing circuit 155, network communication circuit 156, scanner control circuit 157, input/output circuit 158, printer control circuit 159, output circuit 162, timer circuit 163, and input/output circuit 167 are connected to a bus. 166 to each other. The memory circuit 160 is connected to the input/output circuit 167 .

The CPU 151 , ROM 152 and RAM 153 constitute the main controller 140 .

The RAM 153 temporarily stores various control variables and data such as the number of copies set by the operation panel 19, and provides a work area when the CPU 151 executes the program.

The ROM 152 stores control programs and the like for executing various jobs such as copy operations. Note that the storage circuit 160 may store control programs and the like.

The CPU 151 operates according to control programs stored in the ROM 152 .

Image memory 154 temporarily stores image data included in a print job or the like.

The image processing circuit 155, for example, performs various data processing on the image data of each color component of R, G, and B obtained by the image reader 11, and reproduces each reproduction color of Y, M, C, and K. Convert to image data.

Network communication circuit 156 receives a print job from an external terminal device via network 2 . Network communication circuit 156 also transmits data to server device 4 via network 2 . An example of the data is the scheduled replacement date of the toner bottle.

The scanner control circuit 157 controls the image reader 11 to read the document.

The input/output circuit 158 receives an input signal from the operation panel 19 and outputs the received input signal to the main control section 140 . It also receives an image from the main control unit 140 and outputs the received image to the operation panel 19 for display.

A printer control circuit 159 controls the printer 12 to perform an image forming operation. In addition, the printer control circuit 159 generates the coverage (printing rate in the image) of the image data for which image formation is performed for each color each time image formation is executed, and outputs the generated coverage to the coverage counter 147, which will be described later. output.

The input/output circuit 167 writes data to or reads data from the memory circuit 160 .

The memory circuit 160 will be described later.

The output circuit 162 is connected to the speaker. The output circuit 162 converts the digital audio signal received from the main control unit 140 into an analog audio signal, and outputs the generated analog audio signal to the speaker.

The timer circuit 163 outputs the current time.

1.5 Memory circuit 160
The storage circuit 160 (storage means) is composed of a non-volatile semiconductor memory. Note that the storage circuit 160 may be composed of a hard disk.

The storage circuit 160 has areas for storing the history information table 201, the replacement date 221, the investigation period 231, and the like.

(1) History information table 201
The history information table 201 is a data table for storing the history of the remaining amount of toner contained in the toner bottles 31Y, 31M, 31C, and 31K, the amount of usage, and the like.

For simplification of explanation, the history information table 201 describes the history of the remaining amount of toner contained in the toner bottle 31K, the amount of toner used, and the like. Description of the history of the remaining amount of toner, the amount of use, etc. is omitted. The same applies to the following description.

The history information table 201 includes a plurality of pieces of history information 202 as shown in FIG. Each piece of history information 202 includes date and time 203 , remaining amount 204 , usage amount 205 and replacement information 206 .

The date and time 203 indicates the date and time when the remaining amount of toner contained in the toner bottle 31K is detected.

A remaining amount 204 indicates the remaining amount of toner contained in the toner bottle 31K.

The usage amount 205 is calculated by subtracting the remaining amount detected this time from the remaining amount detected last time. In other words, it indicates the amount of toner used from the time of the previous detection to the time of the current detection. Here, if the remaining amount of toner contained in the toner bottle 31K is detected every day, the usage amount 205 corresponds to the toner consumption rate described above.

The replacement information 206 indicates whether or not the toner bottle has been replaced with a new one. If the replacement information 206 is "replaced", it indicates that the toner bottle has been replaced with a new one. The remaining amount of toner at this point is the initial filling amount when the toner bottle is filled with toner to the full amount.

(2) Exchange date 221
The replacement date 221 indicates the date and hour when the toner bottle was replaced with a new one, as shown in FIG. 8A.

The replacement date 221 is set by being written in the storage circuit 160 by the history processing unit 143 when the toner bottle is replaced with a new one.

(3) The survey period 231 indicates a target period for performing peak determination processing, which will be described later, using the history information table 201, as shown in FIG. 8B. The survey period 231 consists of a start date 231a and an end date 231b. The start date 231a is the first day (year/month/day) of the period targeted for the peak determination process, and the end date 231b is the last day (year/month/day) of the period targeted for the peak determination process.

The investigation period 231 is set to the day when the toner bottle is replaced with a new one.

For example, the start date 231a is set to the day when the toner bottle is replaced with a new one, and the end date 231b is set to the day three months after the start date 231a. Here, the investigation period 231 and 3 months shown in FIG. 8B are examples, and may be determined according to the type of toner, the state of use of toner, and the like.

The investigation period 231 is set by writing to the storage circuit 160 by the history processing unit 143 when the toner bottle is replaced with a new one.

Note that the latter 20% of the period of the entire history information contained in the history information table 201 may be set as the investigation period 231 . Here, 20% is an example, and may be determined according to the type of toner, the state of use of toner, and the like.

1.6 Main control unit 140
As described above, the CPU 151 operates according to the control program so that the main control unit 140 includes the time acquisition unit 142, the history processing unit 143, the peak determination unit 144, the period calculation unit 145, the period It functions as a calculator 146 , a coverage counter 147 and a remaining amount detector 148 . Here, the main control unit 140 and the memory circuit 160 constitute a prediction device that predicts the remaining usable period of toner, which is a consumable item.

(1) Integrated control unit 141
By the CPU 101 operating according to the control program, the overall control unit 141 operates an image memory 154, an image processing circuit 155, a network communication circuit 156, a scanner control circuit 157, an input/output circuit 158, a printer control circuit 159, a storage circuit 160, The output circuit 162, the input/output circuit 167, etc. are controlled in a unified manner. The integrated control unit 141 also controls the time acquisition unit 142 , the history processing unit 143 , the peak determination unit 144 , the period calculation unit 145 , the period calculation unit 146 , the coverage counter 147 and the remaining amount detection unit 148 in an integrated manner.

The integrated control unit 141 stores predetermined processing times in advance. At this processing time, history processing, peak determination processing, and period processing, which will be described later, are executed. In order to execute these processes, a period of time during which the user normally does not use the image forming apparatus 5 is set as the processing time. For example, the processing time is set to 5:25 am.

The overall control unit 141 determines whether or not the current time obtained by the time obtaining unit 142, which will be described later, is the processing time.

If it is the processing time, the overall control unit 141 controls the history processing unit 143 and the like to execute history processing, peak determination processing, and period time processing, which will be described later.

(2) Time acquisition unit 142
The time acquisition unit 142 (time acquisition means) acquires the current time from the timer circuit 163 under the control of the integrated control unit 141 . The current time includes year/month/day and hour/minute.

(3) Coverage counter 147 and remaining amount detector 148
(Coverage counter 147)
The coverage counter 147 has a cumulative counter for storing the coverage (printing rate in the image) of the image data for which image formation was performed for each of Y, M, C, and K colors.

Each time an image is formed, the coverage counter 147 receives the coverage of the image data for each color of Y, M, C, and K from the printer control unit 159, and converts the received coverage into Y, Add to the cumulative counter for each color of M, C, and K.

A cumulative counter of the coverage counter 147 is reset for each color when the corresponding color toner bottle is replaced with a new one.

The coverage counter 147 outputs the cumulative counter value to the remaining amount detection unit 148 for each of Y, M, C, and K colors each time.

(Remaining amount detection unit 148)
The remaining amount detection unit 148 (remaining amount acquisition means) receives the value of the cumulative counter from the coverage counter 147 for each of Y, M, C, and K colors. Upon receiving the value of the cumulative counter, the remaining amount detection unit 148 calculates the remaining amount of toner in the toner bottle for each of the colors Y, M, C, and K using the following equations.

Remaining amount of toner = initial filling amount of toner bottle - value of accumulation counter * coefficient α
Here, the initial filling amount of the toner bottle means the amount of toner filled in the new toner bottle when the toner bottle is replaced with a new one. Also, the coefficient α is the amount of toner consumed for each unit coverage, and is a value determined for each image forming unit or for each other condition.

The remaining amount detection unit 148 outputs the calculated remaining amount of toner.

(4) History processing unit 143
The history processing unit 143 executes the following under the control of the integrated control unit 141 .

The history processing unit 143 acquires the remaining amount of toner contained in the toner bottle 31</b>K (remaining amount on the day) from the remaining amount detection unit 148 .

The history processing unit 143 reads, from the history information table 201 via the input/output circuit 167, history information including the date and time of the day before the acquired current time (year/month/day, hour/minute). The history processing unit 143 extracts the remaining amount (the previous day's remaining amount) from the read history information, and subtracts the current remaining amount from the previous day's remaining amount to calculate the usage amount (the usage amount for the current day).

The history processing unit 143 writes history information including the current date and time, remaining amount (remaining amount on the day), and usage amount (usage amount on the day) in the history information table 201 via the input/output circuit 167 .

When the toner bottle 31K is replaced with a new one, the history processing unit 143 writes history information including the current date and time, the remaining amount, and the replacement information "replacement" to the history information table 201 via the input/output circuit 167. . This history information does not include usage.

(5) Peak determination unit 144
The peak determining unit 144 (peak determining means) selects the usage amount per unit time exceeding the threshold value Rd_th (first threshold value) among the usage amounts in the history information table 201 as described below. Determine peak usage in fluctuations.

The peak determination unit 144 will be described as an example using FIG. 9 .

The peak determination unit 144 stores the threshold Rd_th in advance. Graph 341 in FIG. 9 shows this as threshold value Rd_th (348).

The peak determining section 144 executes the following under the control of the integrated control section 141 .

The peak determination unit 144 reads the investigation period 231 from the storage circuit 160 via the input/output circuit 167 . As an example, the investigation period 231 is from the start date 231a “2021.1.10” to the end date 231b “2021.4.09” as shown in FIG. 8B.

Next, the peak determination unit 144 reads all history information including dates and times within the investigation period 231 from the history information table 201 stored in the storage circuit 160 via the input/output circuit 167 . That is, for example, the peak determination unit 144 reads all history information including dates and times from the start date 231a “2021.1.10” to the end date 231b “2021.4.09”.

Next, the peak determination unit 144 extracts all the history information including the usage exceeding the threshold Rd_th from all the read history information. As an example, in the case shown in FIG. 9, history information included in sections 351, 352, and 353 is extracted. This is because the usage amounts in the history information included in the sections 351, 352, and 353 exceed the threshold Rd_th.

Next, the peak determination unit 144 identifies all continuous sections in which the usage amount monotonically increases and then monotonically decreases from all of the extracted history information. As an example, in the case shown in FIG. 9, section 351 corresponds to a section in which the usage increases monotonously and then decreases monotonously. The same applies to sections 352 and 353 as well.

Next, the peak determining unit 144 extracts the maximum usage amount (local maximum value) from each identified section. As an example, in the case shown in FIG. 9, the maximum usage amounts Rd2 (345), Rd9 (346), and Rd13 (347) in sections 351, 352, and 353 are extracted.

Next, the peak determining unit 144 calculates the average value Rd_max (peak usage) of the extracted maximum usage using the following formula.

Average value Rd_max=(ΣRdi)/n
Here, ΣRdi indicates the total sum of extracted maximum usage amounts, and n indicates the number of extracted maximum usage amounts.

For example, in the example shown in FIG. 9, the peak determiner 144 calculates the arithmetic mean (362) as follows.

Average value Rd_max=(Rd2+Rd9+Rd13)/3
Next, the peak determination unit 144 writes the calculated average value Rd_max to the storage circuit 160 via the input/output circuit 167 .

(6) Period calculator 145 and period calculator 146
The period calculation unit 145 and the period calculation unit 146 will be described as an example with reference to FIG. 9 .

The period calculation unit 145 (period calculation means) executes the following under the control of the overall control unit 141 .

The period calculator 145 reads the average value Rd_max from the storage circuit 160 via the input/output circuit 167 .

The period calculation unit 145 acquires the current remaining amount from the remaining amount detection unit 148, and calculates the remaining number of days using the following formula (378).

Remaining days = current remaining amount/average value Rd_max
Here, the current time is the point in time (determination date 375) at which the period calculation unit 145 performs the process.

The timing calculation unit 146 executes the following under the control of the integrated control unit 141 .

The time calculation unit 146 (time calculation means) acquires the current date and time (current day) from the time acquisition unit 142, and calculates the next scheduled replacement date 376 of the toner bottle by the following formula (379).

Next Scheduled Replacement Date=Today+Remaining Days Here, the date when the remaining amount of toner is acquired from the remaining amount detection unit 148 and the current date and time are the same date.

Thus, the original straight line 382 (prediction line) shown in FIG. 9 is replaced with a new straight line 383 (prediction line).

Next, the timing calculator 146 writes the calculated next scheduled replacement date to the storage circuit 160 via the input/output circuit 167 . In addition, the timing calculator 146 outputs the next scheduled replacement date to the operation panel 19 via the input/output circuit 158 . The operation panel 19 displays the next scheduled replacement date.

Next, the timing calculator 146 controls the network communication circuit 156 to transmit the next scheduled replacement date to the server device 4 .

1.7 Server device 4
The server device 4, as shown in FIG. 10, comprises a CPU 401, a ROM 402, a RAM 403, a hard disk 404, a network communication circuit 405, an input/output circuit 406, and the like.

A RAM 403 provides a work area when the CPU 401 executes a program.

The ROM 402 stores control programs and the like for executing the functions of the server device 4 .

The CPU 401 operates according to control programs stored in the ROM 402 .

The CPU 401 , ROM 402 and RAM 403 constitute a main control section 411 .

Further, the main control unit 411 functions by the CPU 401 operating according to the control program.

Network communication circuit 405 receives data from an external device via network 2 . For example, the network communication circuit 405 receives the next scheduled replacement date from the image forming apparatus 5 and outputs the received scheduled replacement date to the main control unit 411 . Network communication circuit 405 also transmits data to an external device via network 2 .

The input/output circuit 406 reads data from the hard disk 404 and writes data to the hard disk 404 . For example, the input/output circuit 406 writes the next scheduled replacement date to the hard disk 404 under the control of the main control unit 411 .

The hard disk 404 has an area for storing the next scheduled replacement date 421, as shown in FIG.

The main control unit 411 controls the input/output circuit 406, the network communication circuit 405, and the like in a unified manner. For example, the main control unit 411 controls to write the received next scheduled replacement date to the hard disk 404 via the input/output circuit 406 .

When the next scheduled replacement date is written to the hard disk 404, the administrator of the server apparatus 4 must install a new toner bottle and install the image forming apparatus 5 by the next scheduled replacement date written to the hard disk 404. Arrange for it to be delivered to your office.

1.8 Operations of Image Forming Apparatus 5 Operations of the image forming apparatus 5 will be described.

(1) Overall Operations of History Processing, Peak Determination Processing, and Period Time Processing Overall operations of history processing, peak determination processing, and period time processing will be described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG.

The time acquisition unit 142 acquires the current time from the timer circuit 163 under the control of the integrated control unit 141 (step S101).

The overall control unit 141 determines whether or not the current time acquired by the time acquisition unit 142 is the processing time. As an example, it is determined whether the current time is 5:25 am (step S102). When determining that the current time is not the processing time ("NO" in step S102), the overall control unit 141 returns the control to step S101 and waits until the processing time arrives.

When it is determined that the current time is the processing time (“YES” in step S102), the history processing unit 143 receives information from the remaining amount detection unit 148 under the control of the overall control unit 141 that toner bottle 31K contains toner. The remaining amount of toner (today's remaining amount) is acquired (step S103). Next, the history processing unit 143 calculates the usage amount by subtracting the current remaining amount from the previous day's remaining amount (step S104). Next, the history processing unit 143 writes history information including the current date and time, remaining amount (remaining amount on the day), and usage amount to the history information table 201 via the input/output circuit 167 (step S105).

Next, the peak determination unit 144 executes peak determination processing (step S106).

Next, the period calculation unit 145 and the timing calculation unit 146 execute period timing processing (step S107).

This concludes the description of the operations of the history processing, peak determination processing, and period time processing on the current day.

(2) Operation of Peak Determination Processing The operation of peak determination processing will be described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG.

Note that the operation described below is the details of step S106 in the flowchart shown in FIG.

The peak determination unit 144 reads the investigation period 231 from the storage circuit 160 via the input/output circuit 167 (step S121).

Next, the peak determining unit 144 reads out all history information including dates and times within the investigation period 231 from the history information table 201 stored in the storage circuit 160 via the input/output circuit 167 (step S122).

Next, the peak determining unit 144 extracts all the history information including the amount of usage exceeding the threshold from all the read history information (step S123).

Next, the peak determining unit 144 identifies one or more continuous sections in which the usage increases and then decreases from all the extracted history information (step S124).

Next, the peak determination unit 144 extracts the maximum usage amount from each identified section (step S125).

Next, the peak determining unit 144 calculates the average value Rd_max (peak usage) of the maximum usage (step S126).

Next, the peak determination unit 144 writes the calculated average value Rd_max to the storage circuit 160 via the input/output circuit 167 (step S127).

This concludes the description of the operation of the peak determination process.

(3) Operation of Period Processing The operation of period processing will be described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG.

Note that the operation described below is the details of step S107 in the flowchart shown in FIG.

The period calculator 145 reads the average value Rd_max from the storage circuit 160 via the input/output circuit 167 (step S141).

The period calculation unit 145 acquires the current remaining amount from the remaining amount detection unit 148, and calculates the remaining number of days using the following formula.

Remaining number of days=current remaining amount/average value Rd_max (step S145)
Next, the time calculation unit 146 acquires the current date and time (current day) from the time acquisition unit 142 (step S146), and calculates the next scheduled replacement date of the toner bottle.

Next scheduled replacement date = current day + remaining days (step S147)
Next, the timing calculator 146 writes the next scheduled replacement date to the storage circuit 160 via the input/output circuit 167 (step S148).

Next, the timing calculator 146 controls the network communication circuit 156 to transmit the next scheduled replacement date to the server device 4 . The network communication circuit 156 transmits the next scheduled replacement date to the server device 4 (step S149).

The network communication circuit 405 of the server device 4 receives the next scheduled replacement date from the image forming device 5 (step S149). The main control unit 411 controls to write the received next scheduled replacement date to the hard disk 404 via the input/output circuit 406 . The input/output circuit 406 writes the next scheduled replacement date to the hard disk 404 (step S150).

The administrator of the server device 4 arranges for a new toner bottle to be delivered to the office where the image forming device 5 is installed by the next scheduled replacement date written in the hard disk 404.例文帳に追加

1.9 Summary According to the above embodiment, a plurality of maximum values of usage exceeding the first threshold are obtained from the history information, and the average value of the obtained maximum values is calculated as the peak usage. The presence of the maximum value of the usage amount exceeding the first threshold indicates that there was a sudden change in the usage amount of toner, which is a consumable, in the past, particularly a change in which the usage amount suddenly increased. Using the remaining amount of consumables and the calculated peak usage amount, the remaining usable period of the consumables is predicted, and the scheduled replacement date of the container storing the consumables is predicted. The estimated remaining period and scheduled replacement date reflect sudden changes in usage. In this way, when there is a sudden change in the amount of consumables used, there is an excellent effect of being able to predict the remaining period and scheduled replacement date according to the sudden change in the amount of use. If the amount is close to empty, it will have its effect.

2 Other Modifications Although the present disclosure has been described based on the above embodiments, it is not limited to the above embodiments. You may make it show below.

(1) When using the history information stored in the history information table 201, the following may be done.

(a) The peak determination unit 144 uses only the amount of usage within a predetermined period of all the history information stored in the history information table 201, that is, excludes the amount of usage outside the predetermined period, and A plurality of usage amounts of may be extracted. For example, history information older than a predetermined period may be excluded. For example, if history information for two years is included, the history for the first half of the two years may be excluded, and the investigation period may be set for the second year. As a result, it is possible to reflect only the trend of recent changes in the toner consumption rate in the prediction.

(b) The peak determination unit 144 determines whether the remaining amount of toner contained in the toner bottle is equal to or less than a predetermined amount (residual amount threshold value) among all the history information stored in the history information table 201. A plurality of maximal usage amounts may be extracted using history information after the point in time. The remaining amount threshold is, for example, 50% of the original fill amount of the toner bottle. This is because it is not necessary to accurately predict the scheduled replacement date of the toner bottle when the remaining amount of the toner bottle is large. Note that the remaining amount threshold value may be determined according to the type of toner and the state of use of toner.

(c) The peak determining unit 144 may exclude, from all the history information stored in the history information table 201, history information containing an extremely high usage amount equal to or greater than a preset second threshold. Here, the second threshold is a value much larger than the threshold Rd_th (first threshold) described above. The amount of usage equal to or greater than the second threshold occurs very rarely. For example, normally 1,000 to 2,000 sheets are printed in a day, but on this particular day, 100,000 sheets, which is much more than 1,000 to 2,000 sheets, are printed. Such history information is excluded because it occurs very infrequently. The second threshold may be determined according to the type of toner, the usage of toner, and the like.

(d) The period calculation unit 145 calculates the remaining amount obtained by subtracting the amount of toner used within the period required for delivery of the toner bottle containing the toner from the remaining amount of toner acquired from the remaining amount detection unit 148, and calculates the peak usage amount. It may be divided by the amount to calculate the period remaining. Here, the toner bottles are delivered from a service center that manages and delivers the toner bottles to the office where the image forming apparatus 5 is installed. The period required for delivery of the toner bottle is the time required for delivery from the service center to the office.

Accordingly, the scheduled replacement date can be determined in consideration of the time required for delivery of the toner bottle.

(e) As described above, the toner bottles are delivered from the service center that manages and delivers the toner bottles to the office where the image forming apparatus 5 is installed. The period required for delivery of the toner bottle may be set as the investigation period 231 (FIGS. 8A and 9).

(2) The image forming apparatus 5 may be configured as follows.

The image forming apparatus 5 includes a timing determination unit (timing determination means) that determines the shipping timing of the toner bottle containing consumables using the scheduled replacement date (scheduled replacement time) calculated by the timing calculation unit 146. good too. Network communication circuit 156 (notification means) notifies server apparatus 4 (management apparatus) that manages toner bottles containing consumables of the determined shipping time.

(3) The operation panel 19 of the image forming apparatus 5 may receive an input of the allowable stock quantity of toner bottles from the user. Here, the allowable stock quantity is the maximum number of toner bottles containing consumable toner that can be stocked in the user's office.

It is preferable to set the allowable stock quantity to a small amount, and the basic setting is not to keep the stock (allowable stock quantity=0).

For example, when the allowable stock quantity=0 is set, and if there is no stock, arrangements are made so that one toner bottle will be delivered on the next scheduled replacement date. On the other hand, when the allowable stock quantity=0 is set, if there is stock, the toner bottle will not be delivered on the next scheduled replacement date.

When the allowable stock quantity=1 is set, if there is no stock, arrange for delivery of two toner bottles on the next scheduled replacement date. When the allowable inventory quantity=1 is set, if the inventory is 1, arrangements are made so that one toner bottle will be delivered on the next scheduled replacement date. When the allowable stock quantity=1 is set, if the stock=2, the toner bottle is not delivered on the next scheduled replacement date.

In addition, in the case of a user with a high toner consumption rate (or an office with a high toner consumption rate), the amount of toner consumed is extremely large, and the toner bottle becomes empty earlier than the scheduled replacement date of the toner bottle. there is a risk of delay in delivery of Therefore, for a user (office) whose toner consumption rate exceeds a predetermined value, the allowable stock quantity may be increased.

For users with a low toner consumption rate, regardless of when the toner bottle is expected to be replaced, if the near-empty toner detection sensor detects that the toner in the toner bottle is near empty, the image will not be displayed. The forming apparatus 5 may notify the user that the toner is near empty by display or voice, and the user may then request the service center to send the toner bottle.

Even if the image forming apparatus 5 notifies the user that the toner is near empty, if the toner bottle contains a small amount of toner and the user has a low toner consumption rate, This is because printing can be performed without immediately running out of toner.

Here, the timing determining unit determines the shipping timing of the toner bottle based on the scheduled replacement date, the toner bottle inventory information in the office (facility) where the image forming apparatus 5 is installed, and the allowable inventory quantity of consumables in the office. may be determined.

Here, the permissible number of toner bottles in the office may be determined based on the history of the amount of consumables used per unit time stored in the storage circuit 160 (storage means).

Also, if the usage amount per unit time of the consumables stored in the storage circuit 160 is greater than a predetermined value, the allowable stock quantity may be determined to be 1 or more.

Also, if the usage amount per unit time of the consumables stored in the storage circuit 160 is smaller than a predetermined value, the allowable stock quantity may be determined to be zero.

(4) In the above-described embodiment, the object to be replaced is the toner bottle containing the toner, which is a consumable item, but other consumable items constituting the image forming apparatus may be used. For example, it may be a drum unit including a photosensitive drum, a transfer unit including an intermediate transfer belt, or the like.

In the case of the photoreceptor drum, the cumulative number of revolutions can be regarded as the usage amount, and in the case of the intermediate transfer belt, the cumulative rotation distance can be regarded as the usage amount.

(5) The image forming apparatus may be a monochrome multifunction machine. Also, the image forming apparatus may be a printing apparatus that does not include the image reader 11 shown in FIG.

(6) When the detection sensor determines that the remaining amount of toner in the toner bottle is equal to or less than a predetermined value, that is, when it detects that the toner is near empty, the timing determining section immediately dispatches the toner bottle. You may determine the shipping time so that

(7) The image forming apparatus 5 may be configured as follows.

(a) The image forming apparatus 5 includes a setting section (setting means) for setting the time required for delivery of the toner bottles from the service center supplying the toner bottles to the office where the image forming apparatus 5 is installed. , may be

The timing determining unit may determine the shipping timing of the toner bottle using the set scheduled replacement date and the time required for shipping the toner bottle. That is, the shipping time may be determined by subtracting the time required for delivery from the scheduled replacement date.

(b) The setting unit may set the time required to deliver the toner bottle based on the address of the facility where the image forming apparatus 5 is installed and the address of the delivery source (service center) where the toner bottle is delivered. good.

For example, the setting unit may set the time required to deliver the toner bottle according to the distance between the address of the facility and the address of the delivery source.

(8) The image forming apparatus 5 may be configured as follows.

A graph 501 shown in FIG. 14 shows the relationship between the passage of time (days) and the varying toner consumption rate. A horizontal axis 502 indicates the passage of time, and a vertical axis 503 indicates the toner consumption rate. A change line 511 indicates the toner consumption rate that fluctuates over time. Here, the graph 501 shows the threshold Rd_th (first threshold, 504). The graph 501 also shows a threshold line 512 extending the threshold Rd_th (504) in the horizontal direction.

Using the history information stored in the history information table 201, the peak determining unit 144 virtually draws a change line 511 and creates a closed loop surrounded by the change line 511 and the threshold line 512, as shown in FIG. Find the area of a region.

In FIG. 14, as an example, among the history information including the usage amount equal to or greater than the threshold Rd_th (504), the history information including the date and time within the predetermined interval i (513) is surrounded by the change line 511 and the threshold line 512. The area Ai of the closed region 508 is shown.

The peak determining unit 144 calculates the average usage amount Rdi in the interval i by the following formula.

Rdi = area Ai/length of section i (days) + Rd_th (521)
The peak determination unit 144 calculates the average value Rd_max using the following formula.

Rd_max = ΣRdi/n (522)
Here, ΣRdi indicates the sum of Rdi, and n indicates the number of Rdi.

As described above, by using the area of the closed region surrounded by the change line 511 and the threshold line 512, the average value Rd_max can be calculated.

(9) In the above embodiment, the main controller 140 and the memory circuit 160 of the image forming apparatus constitute the prediction device. However, it is not limited to this.

The server device 4 may include a main control section and a storage circuit corresponding to the main control section 140 and the storage circuit 160 of the image forming apparatus, and the main control section and the storage circuit of the server device 4 may constitute the prediction device. When the remaining amount detection unit 148 of the image forming apparatus 5 detects the remaining amount of toner, the network communication circuit 156 transmits the detected remaining amount of toner to the server apparatus 4 via the network 2. . The server device 4 receives the remaining amount of toner, and updates the history information table stored in the storage circuit of the server device 4 with the received remaining amount of toner. The prediction device of the server device 4 uses the history information table to predict the remaining usable period of the toner. Also, using the remaining usable period of the toner, the replacement timing of the toner bottle containing the toner, which is a consumable item, is predicted.

Home electric appliances such as mobile phones, passenger cars, trains, etc., which are equipped with a secondary battery (container) for storing electric power, may be equipped with the above prediction device. In this case, the consumable item is power stored in the secondary battery, and the usage amount per unit time is the power usage amount per unit time. The prediction device comprises a main control section and a storage circuit similar to those described above. The storage circuit stores a history information table including history information of past power usage. The prediction device acquires the remaining power of the secondary battery and updates the history information table with the acquired remaining power. The prediction device uses the history information table to predict the usable remaining operating time of the secondary battery. Also, the date and time for which the remaining operating time is predicted is acquired, and the remaining operating time for which the secondary battery can be used is added to the acquired date and time to calculate the scheduled charging time (scheduled filling time) of the secondary battery. When the scheduled charging time arrives, the secondary battery is charged.

(10) In the above embodiment, the average value Rd_max (peak usage amount) of the maximum usage amount is calculated by the formula (average value Rd_max=(ΣRdi)/n). However, it is not limited to this.

The peak usage amount is the maximum usage amount in the past, within the range of ± 10% of the maximum usage fee (preferably within the range of +10% to -5%), or the maximum usage amount (± 10% of the maximum usage amount) % (preferably +10% to -5% of maximum usage) (eg, average usage).

(11) The above embodiments and modifications may be combined.

The prediction device according to the present disclosure has the excellent effect of being able to predict the remaining usable period of the consumable in accordance with the sudden change in the usage amount of the consumable when the usage amount of the consumable is abruptly changed. It is useful as a technique for predicting when to replace consumables.

1 Delivery System 2 Network 4 Server Device 5 Image Forming Device 11 Image Reader 12 Printer 13 Paper Feed Unit 20Y-20K Imaging Unit 21 Intermediate Transfer Belt 22 Secondary Transfer Roller 25 Intermediate Transfer Belt 31Y-31K Toner Bottle 32Y-32K Detection Sensor 50 fixing unit 100 control circuit 101 CPU
140 main control unit 141 integrated control unit 142 time acquisition unit 143 history processing unit 144 peak determination unit 145 period calculation unit 146 time calculation unit 147 coverage counter 148 remaining amount calculation unit 151 CPU
152 ROMs
153 RAM
154 image memory 155 image processing circuit 156 network communication circuit 157 scanner control circuit 158 input/output circuit 159 printer control circuit 160 memory circuit 162 output circuit 163 timer circuit 166 bus 167 input/output circuit 401 CPU
402 ROMs
403 RAM
404 hard disk 405 network communication circuit 406 input/output circuit

Claims (20)

A prediction device for predicting the remaining useful life of a consumable,
storage means for storing a history of consumption of consumables;
Remaining amount acquisition means for acquiring the remaining amount of consumables;
a peak determining means for determining a peak usage amount in fluctuations in the usage amount from among the usage amounts per unit time exceeding a threshold among the usage amounts existing in the history;
A prediction device, comprising: period calculation means for calculating a remaining usable period of the consumable item using the remaining amount and the peak usage amount. 2. The prediction device according to claim 1, wherein the period calculation means calculates the remaining period during which the consumable can be used by dividing the acquired remaining amount by the peak usage amount. a time obtaining means for obtaining the time when the remaining amount is obtained;
The remaining period calculated by the period calculating means is added to the obtained time, and the scheduled replacement time or the container storing the consumables to replace the container storing the consumables with a new container 3. The predicting device according to claim 2, further comprising timing calculation means for calculating a scheduled charging timing for newly charging the consumables. When a plurality of intervals including usage amounts per unit time exceeding a threshold value are extracted from the usage amount in the history, the peak determining means extracts a maximum usage amount from each of the plurality of extracted intervals. 3. The prediction device according to claim 2, wherein the peak usage amount is determined using a plurality of extracted maximum usage amounts. 5. The prediction device according to claim 4, wherein the determination of the peak usage amount is performed by calculating an arithmetic mean of the extracted plurality of maximum usage amounts. When the threshold is set as the first threshold and a value larger than the first threshold is set as the second threshold, the peak determination means excludes the usage amount larger than the second threshold from the usage history, and the maximum The prediction device according to claim 4, wherein a plurality of usage amounts are extracted. 5. The prediction device according to claim 4, wherein the peak determination means extracts a plurality of maximum usage amounts by excluding usage amounts other than a predetermined period from the usage history. The peak determination means extracts a plurality of maximum usage amounts from the usage history after the remaining amount of the consumables has become equal to or less than the remaining amount threshold. Item 5. The prediction device according to item 4. The period calculation means calculates the remaining period by dividing the remaining amount obtained by subtracting the usage amount within the period required for delivery of the container storing the consumables from the obtained remaining amount by the peak usage amount. The prediction device according to claim 1, characterized by: A prediction method used in a prediction device that stores a history of usage of consumables and predicts the remaining usable period of consumables,
a remaining amount acquisition step for acquiring the remaining amount of consumables;
A peak determination step of determining a peak usage in fluctuations in usage from among the usages per unit time exceeding a threshold among the usages existing in the history;
and a period calculation step of calculating a remaining period during which the consumable can be used, using the remaining amount and the peak usage amount. An image forming apparatus comprising the prediction device according to claim 1 . The prediction device further
a time obtaining means for obtaining the time when the remaining amount is obtained;
a time calculation means for calculating a scheduled replacement time for replacing a container storing consumables with a new container by adding a remaining period to the acquired time,
The image forming apparatus further includes:
a timing determining means for determining a timing for shipping a new container using the scheduled replacement timing calculated by the prediction device;
12. The image forming apparatus according to claim 11, further comprising notifying means for notifying the determined shipping time to a management device that manages containers. The timing determining means determines the shipping time of the containing body based on the scheduled replacement time, inventory information of the containing body at the facility where the image forming apparatus is installed, and the allowable stock quantity of the containing body at the facility. 13. The image forming apparatus according to claim 12, wherein: 14. The image forming apparatus according to claim 13, wherein the allowable stock quantity is determined based on a history of usage amounts of consumables per unit time stored in the storage means. 15. The image forming apparatus according to claim 14, wherein the allowable stock quantity is determined to be 1 or more when the usage amount per unit time of the consumables stored in the storage means is greater than a predetermined value. . 15. The image forming apparatus according to claim 14, wherein the allowable inventory quantity is set to 0 when the usage amount per unit time of the consumables stored in the storage means is smaller than a predetermined value. a detection unit for determining whether the remaining amount of consumables is near empty;
and timing determining means for determining a shipping timing so that a new container is immediately shipped when the detector determines that the remaining amount of consumables is near empty. 12. The image forming apparatus according to 11. moreover,
A setting means for setting the time required for delivery of the container,
13. The image forming apparatus according to claim 12, wherein the timing determining means determines the shipping timing of the container by using the scheduled replacement timing and the time required for shipping the container. wherein the setting means sets the time required for delivery of the containing body based on the address of the facility where the image forming apparatus is installed and the address of the delivery source to which the containing body is to be delivered. Item 19. The image forming apparatus according to item 18. A delivery system comprising the image forming apparatus according to claim 12 and a management apparatus.

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