JP2022084398A5 - - Google Patents
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- JP2022084398A5 JP2022084398A5 JP2020196254A JP2020196254A JP2022084398A5 JP 2022084398 A5 JP2022084398 A5 JP 2022084398A5 JP 2020196254 A JP2020196254 A JP 2020196254A JP 2020196254 A JP2020196254 A JP 2020196254A JP 2022084398 A5 JP2022084398 A5 JP 2022084398A5
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- 238000010248 power generation Methods 0.000 claims 82
- 238000012795 verification Methods 0.000 claims 13
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 claims 2
- 230000005855 radiation Effects 0.000 claims 2
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- 238000010801 machine learning Methods 0.000 claims 1
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Claims (18)
前記第１太陽光発電設備から前記予め定められた距離内に設置された第３太陽光発電設備の発電出力と前記第３太陽光発電設備が設置された需要家のみかけ上の消費電力である残余需要とを用いて前記第２太陽光発電出力の推定精度が定められた精度を満たすか否かを判定する推定精度検証部と、
を備えることを特徴とする太陽光発電出力推定装置。 The second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility installed within a predetermined distance from the first photovoltaic power generation facility, is the first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the first photovoltaic power generation facility. an estimating unit that estimates using the photovoltaic power output and the residual demand that is the apparent power consumption of the consumer in which the second photovoltaic power generation equipment is installed;
It is the power output of the third solar power generation facility installed within the predetermined distance from the first solar power generation facility and the apparent power consumption of the consumer where the third solar power generation facility is installed. an estimation accuracy verification unit that determines whether the estimation accuracy of the second photovoltaic power generation output satisfies a predetermined accuracy using the residual demand;
A photovoltaic power generation output estimation device comprising:
前記第１期間における前記第１太陽光発電出力の時系列データと前記第１期間から第１遅延時間だけずれた第２期間の前記第１太陽光発電出力の時系列データとの自己共分散である第２共分散を算出する第２共分散算出部と、
を備え、
前記第１遅延時間は、第１太陽光発電設備と前記第２太陽光発電設備との間で日射変動が伝搬する時間であり、
前記推定部は、前記第１共分散および前記第２共分散を用いて前記第１太陽光発電出力と前記第２太陽光発電出力との比の推定値である係数を算出し、前記係数を前記推定時点から遅延時間ずれた前記第１太陽光発電出力に乗じることで前記第２太陽光発電出力を推定し、
前記推定精度検証部は、前記第１期間ごとに前記第２太陽光発電出力の推定精度が定められた精度を満たすか否かを判定することを特徴とする請求項１に記載の太陽光発電出力推定装置。 Time-series data of the first photovoltaic power generation output and residual demand of the consumer where the second photovoltaic power generation facility is installed in at least one first period before the estimation time of the second photovoltaic power generation output A first covariance calculator that calculates a first covariance that is a covariance with the time series data;
Autocovariance between time-series data of the first photovoltaic power output in the first period and time-series data of the first photovoltaic power output in a second period shifted from the first period by a first delay time a second covariance calculator that calculates a certain second covariance;
with
The first delay time is a time for solar radiation fluctuation to propagate between the first solar power generation facility and the second solar power generation facility,
The estimation unit uses the first covariance and the second covariance to calculate a coefficient that is an estimated value of the ratio between the first photovoltaic power output and the second photovoltaic power output, and calculates the coefficient Estimate the second photovoltaic power output by multiplying the first photovoltaic power output shifted by a delay time from the estimated time point,
The photovoltaic power generation according to claim 1, wherein the estimation accuracy verification unit determines whether or not the estimation accuracy of the second photovoltaic power output satisfies a predetermined accuracy for each of the first periods. Output estimator.
前記第２共分散算出部は、前記第１期間における前記第１太陽光発電出力の時系列データと前記第１期間から第２遅延時間だけずれた第３期間の前記第１太陽光発電出力の時系列データとの自己共分散である第４共分散を算出し、
前記第２遅延時間は、第１太陽光発電設備と前記第３太陽光発電設備との間で日射変動が伝搬する時間であり、
前記推定精度検証部は、前記第３共分散および前記第４共分散を用いて前記第１太陽光発電出力と前記第３太陽光発電設備の発電出力である第３太陽光発電出力との比の推定値である検証係数を算出し、前記検証係数と、前記第３太陽光発電出力の前記第１太陽光発電出力に対する比または回帰係数とを用いて、前記第２太陽光発電出力の推定精度が定められた精度を満たすか否かを判定し、
前記推定部は、前記推定精度検証部によって前記第２太陽光発電出力の推定精度が定められた精度を満たすと判定された場合は前記係数を用いた前記第２太陽光発電出力の推定を行い、前記推定精度検証部によって前記第２太陽光発電出力の推定精度が定められた精度を満たさないと判定された場合は、前記係数の初期値または過去に算出された前記係数を用いて前記第２太陽光発電出力の推定を行うことを特徴とする請求項２に記載の太陽光発電出力推定装置。 The first covariance calculation unit calculates the time-series data of the first photovoltaic power generation output and the time-series data of the residual demand of the customer in which the third photovoltaic power generation facility is installed in the first period. Calculate the third covariance, which is the variance,
The second covariance calculator calculates time-series data of the first photovoltaic power output in the first period and time-series data of the first photovoltaic power output in a third period shifted from the first period by a second delay time. Calculate the fourth covariance, which is the autocovariance with the time series data,
The second delay time is the time for solar radiation fluctuation to propagate between the first solar power generation facility and the third solar power generation facility,
The estimation accuracy verification unit uses the third covariance and the fourth covariance to determine the ratio of the first photovoltaic power generation output to the third photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power output of the third photovoltaic power generation facility. calculating a verification coefficient that is an estimated value of, and estimating the second solar power output using the verification coefficient and the ratio or regression coefficient of the third solar power output to the first solar power output Determine whether the accuracy meets the specified accuracy,
The estimation unit estimates the second photovoltaic power output using the coefficient when the estimation accuracy verification unit determines that the estimation accuracy of the second photovoltaic power output satisfies a predetermined accuracy. , when the estimation accuracy verification unit determines that the estimation accuracy of the second photovoltaic power generation output does not satisfy the predetermined accuracy, the initial value of the coefficient or the coefficient calculated in the past is used to determine the first 2. The photovoltaic power generation output estimating device according to claim 2, which estimates a photovoltaic power output.
前記検証係数は、前記第３共分散を前記第４共分散で除して－１を乗じた値であることを特徴とする請求項３に記載の太陽光発電出力推定装置。 The coefficient is a value obtained by dividing the first covariance by the second covariance and multiplying by -1;
4. The solar power generation output estimation apparatus according to claim 3, wherein the verification coefficient is a value obtained by dividing the third covariance by the fourth covariance and multiplying the result by -1.
前記定格比は、前記第１太陽光発電設備の定格容量に対する前記第２太陽光発電設備の定格容量の比であり、前記第１値は０以上かつ１未満であり、前記第２値は１より大きいことを特徴とする請求項３または４に記載の太陽光発電出力推定装置。 When the coefficient is smaller than the value obtained by multiplying the rated ratio by a first value, and when the coefficient is larger than the value obtained by multiplying the rated ratio by a second value, the estimating unit calculates the initial value of the coefficient or the value in the past. Estimate the second photovoltaic power output using the calculated coefficient,
The rated ratio is the ratio of the rated capacity of the second photovoltaic power generation facility to the rated capacity of the first photovoltaic power generation facility, the first value is 0 or more and less than 1, and the second value is 1. 5. The photovoltaic power generation output estimating device according to claim 3 or 4, wherein the photovoltaic power generation output estimating device is larger.
前記推定部は、前記絶対値が閾値以下であると判定された前記第１期間に対応する前記係数を用いて前記係数の代表値を算出し、前記代表値を用いて前記第２太陽光発電出力を推定することを特徴とする請求項７に記載の太陽光発電出力推定装置。 A plurality of the first periods are set,
The estimation unit calculates a representative value of the coefficient using the coefficient corresponding to the first period in which the absolute value is determined to be equal to or less than the threshold, and uses the representative value to calculate the second solar power generation. 8. The photovoltaic output estimating device according to claim 7, which estimates an output.
前記定格比は、前記第１太陽光発電設備の定格容量に対する前記第２太陽光発電設備の定格容量の比であり、前記第１値は０以上かつ１未満であり、前記第２値は１より大きいであることを特徴とする請求項８に記載の太陽光発電出力推定装置。 The estimating unit adds a second value to the rated ratio that is greater than a value obtained by multiplying the rated ratio by a first value, among the coefficients corresponding to the first period in which the absolute value is determined to be equal to or less than the threshold. calculating a representative value of the coefficients using the coefficients equal to or less than the multiplied value, and estimating the second photovoltaic power generation output using the representative values;
The rated ratio is the ratio of the rated capacity of the second photovoltaic power generation facility to the rated capacity of the first photovoltaic power generation facility, the first value is 0 or more and less than 1, and the second value is 1. The photovoltaic output estimating device according to claim 8, wherein the photovoltaic output estimating device is larger than
を備えることを特徴とする請求項７から１１のいずれか１つに記載の太陽光発電出力推定装置。 a display unit that displays a scatter diagram showing a relationship between the verification coefficient and an error in the estimated value of the second photovoltaic power output estimated by the estimation unit with respect to the measured value of the second photovoltaic power output;
The photovoltaic power generation output estimation device according to any one of claims 7 to 11, comprising:
前記太陽光発電出力推定装置が、前記第１太陽光発電設備から前記予め定められた距離内に設置された第３太陽光発電設備の発電出力と前記第３太陽光発電設備が設置された需要家のみかけ上の消費電力である残余需要とを用いて前記第２太陽光発電出力の推定精度が定められた精度を満たすか否かを判定することを特徴とする太陽光発電出力推定方法。 A photovoltaic power generation output estimating device estimates a second photovoltaic power generation output, which is a power generation output of a second photovoltaic power generation facility installed within a predetermined distance from a first photovoltaic power generation facility, to the first photovoltaic power generation facility. Estimated using the first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the facility, and the residual demand, which is the apparent power consumption of the consumer where the second photovoltaic power generation facility is installed,
The photovoltaic power output estimating device is the power output of a third photovoltaic power generation facility installed within the predetermined distance from the first photovoltaic power generation facility and the demand at which the third photovoltaic power generation facility is installed A method for estimating a photovoltaic power generation output, comprising: determining whether the estimation accuracy of the second photovoltaic power generation output satisfies a predetermined accuracy using residual demand, which is the apparent power consumption of a house.
第１太陽光発電設備から前記予め定められた距離内に設置された第３太陽光発電設備の発電出力と前記第３太陽光発電設備が設置された需要家のみかけ上の消費電力である残余需要とを用いて前記第２太陽光発電出力の推定精度が定められた精度を満たすか否かを判定するステップと、
をコンピュータに実行させることを特徴とする太陽光発電出力推定プログラム。 The second photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power output of the second photovoltaic power generation facility installed within a predetermined distance from the first photovoltaic power generation facility, is the first photovoltaic power generation output, which is the power generation output of the first photovoltaic power generation facility. A step of estimating using the photovoltaic power output and the residual demand, which is the apparent power consumption of the consumer where the second photovoltaic power generation equipment is installed;
The power output of the third photovoltaic power generation facility installed within the predetermined distance from the first photovoltaic power generation facility and the remainder that is the apparent power consumption of the consumer where the third photovoltaic power generation facility is installed determining whether the estimation accuracy of the second photovoltaic power generation output satisfies a predetermined accuracy using the demand;
A solar power generation output estimation program characterized by causing a computer to execute.
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