JP2021177346A - Stock price prediction device, program, and computer-readable storage medium - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide a stock price prediction device, a program, and a computer-readable storage medium capable of calculating exposure data.SOLUTION: A stock price prediction device 1, which is configured to predict the stock price of a prediction object based on exposure data of the prediction object whose stock price is to be predicted, includes functional units of a calculation period setting unit 10, a unit calculation period setting unit 20, a unit number setting unit 30, a first calculation unit 50, a second calculation unit 60, a comparison unit 70, an increase/decrease calculation unit 80, a positive/negative determination unit 85, and a display unit 90. The calculation unit calculates exposure data in a predetermined calculation period, and the exposure data is the data exposed by broadcasting.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

The present invention relates to stock price predictors, programs, and computer-readable storage media, in particular, stock price predictors, programs, and stock price predictors that predict the stock price of a forecast target based on the exposure data of the forecast target for which the stock price is predicted. Concerning computer-readable storage media.

Conventionally, a stock price forecasting device that predicts a stock price has been known. For example, in Patent Document 1, the stock price forecast server 3 stores a forecast program 27 for setting the forecast closing price of the stock price after the next day of the due date, and by executing the forecast program 27, the system credit transaction settlement deadline is set based on the due date. Using the number of system credit transaction balances for each date from the contract date to the due date, the number of forecast credit transaction balances for each forecast target date after the day following the due date is calculated, and the calculated forecast credit transaction for each forecast target date is calculated. It discloses a stock price forecasting device that calculates the forecasted closing price of the stock price on the forecasted date based on the actual closing price of the stock price on the date of the number of balances and the corresponding system credit transaction balance.

Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2004-240964

In the conventional stock price forecasting device described above, the forecasted stock price closing price is calculated based on the actual stock price closing price, and the stock price is predicted based on the past stock price data.

However, the actual stock price is not determined based on past stock price data, and from the market principle, it can be considered that the stock price goes up if there are many buyers and goes down if there are many sellers.

In other words, it is thought that forecasting from the perspective of whether or not there will be more buyers than forecasting from past stock price data, that is, from the perspective of whether or not the stock will become popular, will match the market principle and improve the forecast accuracy. Be done. The present inventors considered that it is possible to determine whether or not the brand becomes popular by grasping the exposure data such as the broadcast data of the cable television broadcast.

The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances, and an object of the present invention is to provide a stock price forecasting device, a program, and a computer-readable storage medium capable of calculating exposure data.

In order to achieve the above object, the stock price forecasting device according to the present invention is a stock price forecasting device for predicting the stock price of the forecasting target based on the exposure data of the forecasting target for which the stock price is predicted. It is characterized by having an exposure data calculation unit that calculates exposure data.

According to the present invention, since the stock price prediction device has an exposure data calculation unit for calculating the exposure data, the exposure data can be calculated in a predetermined calculation period, and the brand is popular. It is possible to predict the stock price from the viewpoint of whether or not it will come out.

The exposure data can be data exposed by broadcasting, and the data exposed by broadcasting can be data exposed by television broadcasting and / or data exposed by radio broadcasting. The data exposed by can be the data exposed by the wired television broadcast.

Further, the broadcast data may be only the data exposed by the television broadcast and / or the radio broadcast. That is, by using the exposure data as the data exposed by broadcasting, it is possible to accurately predict the stock price.

The exposure data calculation unit can calculate the average value of the exposure data in the predetermined calculation period.

The predetermined calculation period includes a unit calculation period that is a unit of the calculation period, and the exposure data calculation unit calculates an integrated value obtained by integrating unit exposure data corresponding to the unit calculation period in the predetermined calculation period. By performing the calculation, the exposure data corresponding to the calculation period can be calculated.

The exposure data calculation unit divides the integrated value obtained by integrating the unit exposure data by the number of the unit calculation periods in the calculation period and performs averaging processing, whereby the exposure corresponding to the unit calculation period in the calculation period is performed. Data can be calculated.

It has a unit exposure data calculation unit that calculates the unit exposure data, and the unit exposure data calculation unit is based on, for example, a predetermined unit exposure data in the unit calculation period and a unit exposure data immediately before the unit calculation period. By performing the averaging process, the unit exposure data in the unit calculation period can be calculated.

The predetermined unit exposure data in the unit calculation period can be the predetermined integrated exposure data in the unit calculation period.

The unit exposure data in the unit calculation period immediately before the unit calculation period can be the unit exposure data calculated by the unit exposure data calculation unit.

If the averaging process is performed by weighting the predetermined unit exposure data in the unit calculation period, the latest exposure data can be reflected in the stock price prediction.

The calculation period has a first calculation period and a second calculation period, and the exposure data includes the first calculation period exposure data which is the exposure data in the first calculation period, and the second calculation period. The exposure data calculation unit includes the second calculation period exposure data, which is the exposure data in the calculation period of, and corresponds to the unit calculation period of the first calculation period exposure data and the second calculation period exposure data. It can have an exposure data difference calculation unit that calculates the difference data.

The exposure data may be the first exposure data, and the exposure data calculation unit may be the first exposure data calculation unit that calculates the first exposure data.

The exposure data may include a second exposure data and may have a second exposure data calculation unit that calculates the second exposure data in a predetermined calculation period.

The predetermined calculation period is a third calculation period, the second exposure data is the exposure data in the third calculation period, and the second exposure data calculation unit is the second exposure. Data can be calculated.

The second exposure data calculation unit calculates the average value of the difference data corresponding to the unit calculation period calculated by the exposure data difference calculation unit in the third calculation period, thereby calculating the second exposure data. Can be calculated.

The second exposure data calculation unit calculates the integrated value obtained by integrating the difference data corresponding to the unit calculation period calculated by the exposure data difference calculation unit in the third calculation period, thereby calculating the third. The second exposure data corresponding to the calculation period can be calculated.

The second exposure data calculation unit divides the integrated value obtained by integrating the difference data by the number of the unit calculation periods in the third calculation period and performs averaging processing, thereby performing the average processing in the third calculation period. The second exposure data corresponding to the unit calculation period can be calculated.

If the display unit for displaying the first exposure data and the second exposure data is provided, the first exposure data and the second exposure data can be displayed and visually compared.

In order to achieve the above object, the program according to the present invention uses a computer of a stock price prediction device for predicting the stock price of the prediction target based on the exposure data of the prediction target for which the stock price is predicted, and the exposure data. It is characterized in that it functions as an exposure data calculation unit that calculates.

In order to achieve the above object, the invention relating to a computer-readable storage medium according to the present invention is characterized in that the above program is stored.

According to the present invention, exposure data can be calculated.

It is a block diagram which shows the outline of the whole structure of the stock price forecasting apparatus which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the 1st calculation part of the stock price forecasting apparatus. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the 2nd calculation part of the stock price forecasting apparatus. It is a block diagram which shows the computer structure of the stock price forecasting apparatus. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the calculation period setting part of the stock price forecasting apparatus. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the unit calculation period setting part of the stock price forecasting apparatus. It is a figure for demonstrating the setting method of the number of unit calculation periods in the 1st calculation period of the unit number setting part of the stock price forecasting apparatus. It is a figure for demonstrating the setting method of the number of unit calculation periods in the 2nd calculation period of the unit number setting part of the stock price forecasting apparatus. It is a figure for demonstrating the setting method of the number of unit calculation periods in the 3rd calculation period of the unit number setting part of the stock price forecasting apparatus. It is a figure for demonstrating the calculation method in the 1st calculation period of the 1st unit exposure data calculation part of the stock price prediction apparatus. It is a figure for demonstrating the calculation method in the 2nd calculation period of the 1st unit exposure data calculation part of the stock price prediction apparatus. It is a figure for demonstrating the calculation method in the 1st calculation period exposure data calculation part of the stock price prediction apparatus. It is a figure for demonstrating the calculation method in the 2nd calculation period exposure data calculation part of the stock price prediction apparatus. It is a figure for demonstrating the method of the averaging processing in the 1st exposure data calculation unit and the 2nd exposure data calculation unit of the stock price prediction apparatus. It is a figure for demonstrating the calculation method in the exposure data difference calculation part of the stock price prediction apparatus. It is a figure for demonstrating the calculation method in the 2nd exposure data calculation part of the stock price prediction apparatus. It is a figure for demonstrating the calculation method in the 1st exposure data calculation unit and the 2nd exposure data calculation unit of the stock price prediction apparatus. It is a figure following FIG. 17 for demonstrating the calculation method in the 1st exposure data calculation unit and the 2nd exposure data calculation unit of the stock price prediction apparatus. It is a figure for demonstrating the display method in the display part of the stock price forecasting apparatus. It is a flowchart for demonstrating the arithmetic processing flow of the stock price forecasting apparatus. It is a flowchart following FIG. 20 for explaining the arithmetic processing flow of the stock price forecasting apparatus. It is a flowchart following FIG. 20 for explaining the arithmetic processing flow of the stock price forecasting apparatus. It is a flowchart following FIG. 21 and FIG. 22 for explaining the arithmetic processing flow of the stock price forecasting apparatus. It is a flowchart following FIG. 23 for explaining the arithmetic processing flow of the stock price forecasting apparatus.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an outline of the overall configuration of the stock price forecasting device according to the embodiment of the present invention, FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a first calculation unit of the stock price forecasting device, and FIG. 3 is the same. A block diagram showing the configuration of the second calculation unit of the stock price forecasting device, FIG. 4 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the computer of the stock price forecasting device, and FIG. 5 shows the configuration of the calculation period setting unit of the stock price forecasting device. The block diagram and FIG. 6 are block diagrams showing the configuration of the unit calculation period setting unit of the stock price forecasting device, and FIG. 7 is the number of unit calculation periods in the first calculation period of the unit number setting unit of the stock price prediction device. FIG. 8 is a diagram for explaining a setting method, FIG. 8 is a diagram for explaining a method of setting the number of unit calculation periods in the second calculation period of the unit number setting unit of the stock price forecasting device, and FIG. 9 is a diagram for explaining the same stock price. FIG. 10 is a diagram for explaining a method of setting the number of unit calculation periods in the third calculation period of the unit number setting unit of the prediction device, and FIG. 10 shows the first unit exposure data calculation unit of the stock price prediction device. FIG. 11 is a diagram for explaining the calculation method in the calculation period, FIG. 11 is a diagram for explaining the calculation method in the second calculation period of the first unit exposure data calculation unit of the stock price forecasting device, and FIG. 12 is the same. FIG. 13 is a diagram for explaining a calculation method in the first calculation period exposure data calculation unit of the stock price prediction device, and FIG. 13 is a diagram for explaining a calculation method in the second calculation period exposure data calculation unit of the stock price prediction device. 14 is a diagram for explaining a method of averaging in the first exposure data calculation unit and the second exposure data calculation unit of the stock price prediction device, and FIG. 15 is a view of exposure data difference of the stock price prediction device. FIG. 16 is a diagram for explaining a calculation method in the calculation unit, FIG. 16 is a diagram for explaining a calculation method in the second exposure data calculation unit of the stock price prediction device, and FIG. 17 is a diagram for explaining a calculation method in the second exposure data calculation unit of the stock price prediction device. The figure for explaining the calculation method in the exposure data calculation unit and the second exposure data calculation unit, FIG. 18 shows the calculation method in the first exposure data calculation unit and the second exposure data calculation unit of the stock price prediction device. The figure following FIG. 17 and FIG. 19 for explanation are diagrams for explaining the display method in the display unit of the stock price forecasting device.

Explaining the outline of the stock price forecasting device 1 of the present invention with reference to FIGS. 1 to 3, the stock price forecasting device 1 is based on the exposure data 52a1, 52b1, 62a of the forecasting target for which the stock price tendency is predicted. It is a device for predicting the tendency of the stock price to be predicted.

In the present embodiment, the forecast target includes, for example, a corporation whose shares are publicly traded over the counter. Further, the exposure data 52a1, 52b1, 62a can be data exposed by broadcasting, and the data exposed by broadcasting can be data exposed by broadcasting television broadcasting.

Furthermore, the data exposed by the broadcast of the television broadcast can be the data exposed by the broadcast of the wired television broadcast, and the data exposed by the broadcast is exposed by the broadcast of the wired television broadcast in more detail than the television broadcast. It can be only the data that has been broadcast. Furthermore, the data exposed by broadcasting shall include exposure in predetermined programs such as information programs, variety programs, dramas, news, etc., video and audio in commercials, or text (SI subtitles, etc.). Furthermore, the exposure data 52a1, 52b1, 62a can be data representing the frequency of exposure, such as data on the number of times of exposure and data on the time of exposure.

The stock price prediction device 1 includes a calculation period setting unit 10, a unit calculation period setting unit 20, a unit number setting unit 30, a first calculation unit 50, a second calculation unit 60, a comparison unit 70, an increase / decrease calculation unit 80, and a positive / negative determination. It has each functional unit of the unit 85 and the display unit 90.

As shown in FIG. 4, the stock price forecasting device 1 of the present embodiment has a general configuration as a computer. That is, as shown in FIG. 4, the stock price prediction device 1 is a central processing unit (CPU, GPU, DSP) 1B and a storage device (ROM, RAM, hard disk, cache memory) 1C connected to each other via a bus 1A. It has an input device (keyboard, touch panel, mouse) 1D, a display device (liquid crystal display) 1E, and the like. The storage device 1C functions as a computer-readable storage medium. The storage device 1C stores a program 100 for operating each functional unit of the stock price prediction device 1.

The calculation period setting unit 10 can set the calculation periods 11, 12, and 13, and the calculation periods 11, 12, and 13 are the exposure data 52a1, 52b1, by the first calculation unit 50 and the second calculation unit 60. The calculation periods 11, 12, and 13 for performing the calculation of 62a. As shown in FIG. 5, the calculation periods 11, 12, and 13 set by the calculation period setting unit 10 include the first calculation period 11, the second calculation period 12, and the third calculation period 13. The first calculation period 11 is a short-term calculation period with a relatively short period, the second calculation period 12 is a long-term calculation period with a relatively long period, and the third calculation period 13 is the present implementation. In the form, the calculation period is the same as that of the first calculation period 11.
The calculation periods 11, 12, and 13 can be set on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis, for example, 3 days, 3 weeks, or 3 months. The first calculation period 11 and the third calculation period 13 having a relatively short period are set to, for example, 3 weeks, and the second calculation period 12 having a relatively long period is set to, for example, 5 weeks. .. The calculation periods 11, 12, and 13 include a unit calculation period 21, which will be described later, which is a unit of the calculation periods 11, 12, and 13.

As shown in FIG. 6, the unit calculation period setting unit 20 can set the unit calculation period 21, and the unit calculation period 21 is the exposure data 52a1 by the first calculation unit 50 and the second calculation unit 60. 52b1, 62a (exposure data 52a1, 52b1, 62a includes the first exposure data 52a1, 52b1 and the second exposure data 62a, that is, the exposure data calculated by the first calculation unit 50 is first exposed. Data 52a1, 52b1 and the exposure data calculated by the second calculation unit 50 may be the second exposure data 62a). Is. The unit calculation period 21 is a period shorter than the calculation periods 11, 12, and 13, and can be set on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis such as one day, one week, and one month.

The period can be set by the calculation period setting unit 10 and the unit calculation period setting unit 20, for example, by the user inputting the calculation periods 11, 12, 13 and the unit calculation period 21 via the input device 1D. .. Further, for the period setting by the calculation period setting unit 10 and the unit calculation period setting unit 20, the central processing unit 1B needs to read the calculation periods 11, 12, 13 and the unit calculation period 21 stored in the storage device 1C in advance. You can also do it.

The unit number setting unit 30 can calculate and set the number m, n, o of the unit calculation period 21 in the calculation periods 11, 12, and 13. As shown in FIGS. 7 to 9 and the following number 1, the unit number setting unit 30 is more specifically a first calculation period 11, a second calculation period 12, and a third calculation period 11, 12, 13. The number m, n, o of the unit calculation period 21 can be obtained by dividing the calculation period 13 by the unit calculation period 21.

In the present embodiment, as shown in FIG. 7, the number of the unit calculation period 21 of the first calculation period 11 is represented as m, and as shown in FIG. 8, the unit of the second calculation period 12 The number of the calculation period 21 is represented as n, and as shown in FIG. 9, the number of the unit calculation period 21 of the third calculation period 13 is represented as o. The setting of the number m, n, o of the unit calculation period 21 by the unit number setting unit 30 can be performed by the user inputting via the input device 1D, or is stored in the storage device 1C in advance. It is also possible for the central processing unit 1B to read out several m, n, and o of the unit calculation period 21 as required.
[Number 1]
Number of unit calculation period 21 m, n, o = calculation period 11, 12, 13 / unit calculation period 21

Returning to FIG. 2, the first calculation unit 50 has each function unit of the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51 and the first exposure data calculation unit 52.

The first unit exposure data calculation unit 51 can calculate the first unit exposure data 51a, which is the unit of the first exposure data 52a1, 52b1, for each unit calculation period 21 in the calculation periods 11 and 12.

That is, as shown in FIGS. 10, 11, and 2 to 4, the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51 has the unit calculation period 21 (the unit calculation period 21 is a unit in FIGS. 10 and 11). The predetermined unit exposure data in the calculation period 2) and the unit calculation period 21 immediately before the unit calculation period 21 (the unit calculation period 21 immediately before the unit calculation period 21 is the unit calculation period in FIGS. 10 and 11). Based on the predetermined first unit exposure data 51a in (1) and (the predetermined unit exposure data in the unit calculation period 21 and the predetermined first unit exposure data in the unit calculation period 21 immediately before the unit calculation period 21). The unit exposure data 51a in the unit calculation period 21 can be calculated by performing the averaging process (by adding the unit exposure data 51a). The averaging process of the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51 can be performed by weighting the predetermined unit exposure data in the unit calculation period 21.

Here, the predetermined unit exposure data in the unit calculation period 21 can be the predetermined integrated exposure data in the unit calculation period 21 (what is the predetermined integrated exposure data in the unit calculation period 21? For example, when the unit calculation period 21 is one week, it is an integrated value obtained by integrating the frequency of exposure such as the data of the number of exposures of the prediction target and the data of the exposure time in that one week).

Further, the predetermined first unit exposure data 51a in the unit calculation period 21 immediately before the unit calculation period 21 is the unit calculation immediately before being calculated by the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51 as in equations 2 to 4. It can be the first unit exposure data 51a in the period 21 (for the unit calculation period 21 immediately before the unit calculation period 21, the first unit exposure data calculated by the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51). Although 51a exists, in the unit calculation period 21, the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51 has not yet performed the calculation. Therefore, the integrated value of the exposure data in the unit calculation period 21 is used as the predetermined unit exposure data. use).

More specifically, the calculation of the first unit exposure data 51a by the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51 is the predetermined unit exposure amount data in the unit calculation period 21 (integrated value of the exposure data in the unit calculation period 21). The value obtained by multiplying the value by a predetermined first coefficient with respect to the predetermined first unit exposure data 51a in the unit calculation period 21 immediately before the unit calculation period 21 (the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51 by the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51). The first unit exposure data 51a in the unit calculation period 21 is calculated by adding the value obtained by multiplying the calculated value of the unit exposure data 51a of 1) by a predetermined second coefficient and performing the averaging process. be able to.

More specifically, the first coefficient is a value obtained by adding a predetermined number to 1, and the second coefficient is a predetermined number from the numbers m and n of the unit calculation period 21 set by the unit number setting unit 30. The value obtained by subtracting.

That is, the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51 obtains a value obtained by multiplying a predetermined unit exposure data in the unit calculation period 21 by a predetermined number and a value (first coefficient). The number m of the unit calculation period 21 set by the unit number setting unit 30 in the first unit exposure data 51a calculated by the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51 in the unit calculation period 21 immediately before the unit calculation period 21. , N is multiplied by a value obtained by subtracting a predetermined number (second coefficient), and the added value is added, and the added value is set by the unit number setting unit 30. Unit calculation period 21 The first unit exposure data 51a in the unit calculation period 21 can be calculated by dividing by the value obtained by adding a predetermined number to the number m and n of the above and performing the averaging process (the unit calculation period 21). The predetermined unit exposure data in the unit calculation period 21 is weighted by multiplying the predetermined unit exposure data in 1 by a value obtained by adding a predetermined number to 1 (first coefficient) to obtain a value. .. The predetermined number can be, for example, 1.

In the calculation of the first unit exposure data 51a in the first unit calculation period 21 (unit calculation period 1 in FIGS. 10 and 11) in the calculation periods 11 and 12, the unit calculation period immediately before the unit calculation period 21 is calculated. The unit exposure data 51a in 21 is the first unit exposure data 51a in the immediately preceding unit calculation period 21 calculated by the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51 as in equations 2 to 4, and the unit calculation immediately before. The integrated value or moving average of the exposure data in the period 21 may be used.

[Number 2]
First unit exposure data 51a = (predetermined unit exposure data in the unit calculation period 21 × first coefficient + first unit exposure data 51a in the unit calculation period 21 immediately before the unit calculation period 21 × second Coefficient) / Unit A value obtained by adding a predetermined number to several m and n in the calculation period 21.
[Number 3]
First coefficient = 1 + predetermined number
[Number 4]
Second coefficient = number of unit calculation periods m, n-predetermined number

The first exposure data calculation unit 52 can calculate the first exposure data 52a1, 52b1. That is, the first exposure data calculation unit 52 can calculate the average value of the exposure data in the predetermined calculation periods 11 and 12.

More specifically, the first exposure data calculation unit 52 is the first unit exposure data corresponding to the unit calculation period 21 obtained by the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51 in the predetermined calculation periods 11 and 12. By calculating the integrated value obtained by integrating 51a, the first exposure data 52a1, 52b1 corresponding to the calculation periods 11 and 12 can be calculated.

That is, the first exposure data 52a1, 52b1 includes the first calculation period exposure data 52a1 which is the exposure data 52a1 in the first calculation period 11, and the second exposure data 52b1 in the second calculation period 12. The calculation period exposure data 52b1 of the above is included.

Then, as shown in FIG. 12 and Equation 5, the first exposure data calculation unit 52 has a first calculation period exposure data calculation unit 52a that calculates the first calculation period exposure data 52a1. The calculation period exposure data calculation unit 52a of 1 calculates an integrated value obtained by integrating the first unit exposure data 52a1 obtained by calculation by the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51 in the first calculation period 11. The exposure data 52a1 in the first calculation period 11 can be calculated.

Further, as shown in FIG. 13 and Equation 6, the first exposure data calculation unit 52 has a second calculation period exposure data calculation unit 52b that calculates the second calculation period exposure data 52b1. The calculation period exposure data calculation unit 52b of 2 calculates an integrated value obtained by integrating the first unit exposure data 51a obtained by calculation by the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51 in the second calculation period 12. The exposure data 52b1 in the second calculation period 12 can be calculated (the integrated value of the first unit exposure data 51a calculated by the first exposure data calculation unit 52 is the integrated value of the first exposure data 52a1, 52b1. It shall be included in the concept of average value).

Further, more specifically, the first calculation period exposure data calculation unit 52a and the second calculation period exposure data calculation unit 52b are described in FIGS. 12, 13, 5, and 6 in more detail than the first exposure data calculation unit 52. As shown, the unit calculation period in the calculation periods 11 and 12 set by the unit number setting unit 30 is the integrated value obtained by integrating the first unit exposure data 51a calculated by the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51. The averaged exposure data 52a1, 52b1 corresponding to the unit calculation period 21 in the first calculation period 11 and the second calculation period 12 is calculated by dividing by several m and n of 21 and performing the averaging process. Can be done.

As shown in FIG. 14, the first exposure data calculation unit 52 sequentially moves the calculation periods 11 and 12 while shifting the unit calculation period 21 by the unit calculation period 21 as a movement unit, that is, the exposure data 52a1. , 52b1 is to be averaged. That is, the first exposure data calculation unit 52 calculates the exposure data 52a1 and 52b1 while performing the moving average based on the first calculation period 11 and the second calculation period 12.

[Number 5]
First calculation period exposure data 52a1 = (first unit exposure data 51a in unit calculation period 1 + first unit exposure data 51a in unit calculation period 2 + ... + first unit exposure in unit calculation period m-1 Data 51a + 1st unit exposure data 51a) / m of unit calculation period m
[Number 6]
Second calculation period exposure data = 52b1 (first unit exposure data 51a in unit calculation period 1 + first unit exposure data 51a in unit calculation period 2 + ... + first unit exposure in unit calculation period n-1 Data 51a + 1st unit exposure data 51a) / n of unit calculation period n

Further, the first exposure data calculation unit 52 has an exposure data difference calculation unit 52c. As shown in FIGS. 15 and 7, the exposure data difference calculation unit 52c is a first calculation period exposure data 52a1 to a second calculation period exposure data calculation unit calculated by the first calculation period exposure data calculation unit 52a. By subtracting the second calculation period exposure data 52b1 calculated by 52b, the difference data 52c1 corresponding to the unit calculation period 21 of the first calculation period exposure data 52a1 and the second calculation period exposure data 52b1 can be calculated. can.

[Number 7]
Difference data 52c1 = First calculation period exposure data 52a1-Second calculation period exposure data 52b1

The second calculation unit 60 returns to FIG. 3 and has a second exposure data calculation unit 62 as a functional unit.

The second exposure data calculation unit 62 can calculate the second exposure data 62a. That is, the second exposure data calculation unit 62 calculates the average value in the calculation period 13 of the difference data 52c1 corresponding to the unit calculation period 21 calculated by the exposure data difference calculation unit 52c, that is, the third calculation period 13. The second exposure data 62a can be calculated (the third calculation period 13 is the same calculation period as the first calculation period 11 described above in the present embodiment).

More specifically, as shown in Equation 8 and FIG. 16, the second exposure data calculation unit 62 uses the difference data 52c1 corresponding to the unit calculation period 21 calculated by the exposure data difference calculation unit 52c for the third calculation period. By calculating the integrated value integrated in 13, the second exposure data 62a corresponding to the third calculation period 13 can be calculated (integration of the difference data 52c1 calculated by the second exposure data calculation unit 62). The value shall be included in the concept of the average value of the second exposure data 62a).

That is, the second exposure data calculation unit 62 divides the integrated value obtained by integrating the difference data 52c1 by the number o of the unit calculation period 21 in the third calculation period 13 and performs averaging processing, thereby performing the third calculation period. The second exposure data 62a corresponding to the unit calculation period 21 in 13 can be calculated.

As shown in FIG. 14, the second exposure data calculation unit sequentially moves the calculation period 13 while shifting the unit calculation period 21 by the unit calculation period 21 as a movement unit, that is, the second exposure data 62a. Will be averaged.

Here, as shown in FIGS. 17 and 18, the first calculation period exposure data calculation unit 52a, the second calculation period exposure data calculation unit 52b, and the second exposure data calculation unit 62 are at the head of the calculation. While matching the unit calculation period 21a and shifting the unit calculation period 21 by each, the respective calculation periods 11, 12, and 13 are sequentially moved to perform the calculation process (that is, the first calculation period exposure data calculation unit 52a, the first The second calculation period exposure data calculation unit 52b and the second exposure data calculation unit 62 perform the first calculation period exposure data 52a1 and the second calculation period while performing moving averaging while matching the first unit calculation period 21a. The exposure data 52b1 and the second exposure data 62a are calculated, and the exposure data difference calculation unit 52c moves the difference data 52c1 while shifting the unit calculation period 21 by the unit calculation period 21 as a movement unit. It is calculated so as to correspond to 11, 12, and 13).

[Number 8]
Second exposure data 62a = (difference data 52c1 in unit calculation period 1 + difference data 52c1 in unit calculation period 2 + ... + difference data 52c1 in unit calculation period o-1 + difference data 52c1 in unit calculation period o) / o

Returning to FIG. 1, the comparison unit 70 can compare the magnitude relationship between the difference data 52c1 calculated by the exposure data difference calculation unit 52c and the second exposure data 62a calculated by the second exposure data calculation unit 62. can.

The increase / decrease calculation unit 80 can calculate the increase / decrease of the difference data 52c1. That is, the increase / decrease calculation unit 80 calculates the increase / decrease between the difference data 52c1 corresponding to the calculation periods 11, 12, and 13 (see FIG. 14) that move while shifting by the unit calculation period 21 with the unit calculation period 21 as the movement unit. Can be done.

The positive / negative determination unit 85 can determine the positive / negative of the difference data 52c1 and the second exposure data 62a. More specifically, the positive / negative determination unit 85 can determine whether the difference data 52c1 and the second exposure data 62a have changed to a positive value or a negative value.

As shown in FIG. 19, the display unit 90 graphs the time-dependent changes of the difference data 52c1 calculated by the exposure data difference calculation unit 52c and the second exposure data 62a calculated by the second exposure data calculation unit 62. Can be displayed with. That is, the display unit 90 can display the curve representing the difference data 52c1 and the second exposure data 62a as a change with time based on the unit calculation period 21 in a graph format. Further, the display unit 90 can display information reflecting the comparison result by the comparison unit 70, the calculation result by the increase / decrease calculation unit 80, and the judgment result by the positive / negative determination unit 85.

That is, in the display unit 90, the magnitude relationship between the difference data 52c1 and the second exposure data 62a is reversed according to the comparison result by the comparison unit 70, the difference data 52c1 is larger than the second exposure data 62a, and the increase / decrease calculation unit When it is determined that the difference data 52c1 is on the increase based on the calculation result of 80, the difference data 52c1 and the second exposure data 62a are both determined to be negative values based on the determination result of the positive / negative determination unit 85. However, it is possible to display information indicating the buying timing, assuming that the brand has changed to the buying timing.

Further, when the display unit 90 determines that the difference data 52c1 and the second exposure data 62a both change from a negative value to a positive value based on the determination result of the positive / negative determination unit 85 after the purchase timing is changed. , Assuming that the brand has further changed to the buying timing, information indicating the buying timing can be further displayed.

Further, in the display unit 90, the magnitude relationship between the difference data 52c1 and the second exposure data 62a is reversed according to the comparison result by the comparison unit 70, the difference data 52c1 is smaller than the second exposure data 62a, and the increase / decrease calculation unit When it is determined that the difference data 52c1 is decreasing based on the calculation result of 80, the difference data 52c1 and the second exposure data 62a are both determined to be positive values based on the determination result of the positive / negative determination unit 85. However, it is possible to display information indicating the selling timing, assuming that the brand has turned to the selling timing.

Furthermore, when the display unit 90 determines that the difference data 52c1 and the second exposure data 62a both change from a positive value to a negative value based on the determination result of the positive / negative determination unit 85 after the selling timing has changed. Can further display information indicating the selling timing, assuming that the stock has further turned to the selling timing.

Here, each functional unit in the stock price forecasting device 1 can realize its function by executing the program 100.

That is, the program 100 uses the computer of the stock price prediction device 1 as the calculation period setting unit 10, the unit calculation period setting unit 20, the unit number setting unit 30, the first calculation unit 50, the second calculation unit 60, and the comparison unit 70. , The increase / decrease calculation unit 80, the positive / negative determination unit 85, and the display unit 90, and the first calculation unit 50 functions as the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51 and the first exposure data calculation unit 52, and further. Further, the second calculation unit 60 can function as the second unit exposure data calculation unit 61 and the second exposure data calculation unit 62.

Next, the arithmetic processing flow by the stock price forecasting device 1 will be described in detail based on the flowcharts of FIGS. 20 to 24.

That is, first, as shown in FIG. 20, in step S10, in step S10, the calculation period setting unit 10 is more specifically described in the first calculation period 11, the second calculation period 12, and the third calculation period. 13 settings are made.

Next, in step S20, the unit calculation period setting unit 20 sets the unit calculation period 21.

Subsequently, in step S30, the unit number setting unit 30 sets the number m of the unit calculation period 21 in the first calculation period 11, the second calculation period 12, and the third calculation period 13 based on the number 1. Calculate and set n and o.

Next, in step S40, the first calculation unit 50 and the second calculation unit 60 perform a predetermined calculation.

That is, as shown in FIG. 21, as the calculation by the first calculation unit 50, in step S41A, the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51 performs the unit calculation in the first calculation period 11 and the second calculation period 12. The first unit exposure data 51a, which is the unit of the first exposure data 52a1, 52b1, is calculated for each period 21. The first unit exposure data 51a is calculated as in Equations 2 to 4.

Next, in step S42A, the first calculation period exposure data calculation unit 52a calculates the first calculation period exposure data 52a1 based on the equation 5.

Subsequently, in step S43A, the second calculation period exposure data calculation unit 52c calculates the second calculation period exposure data 52b1 based on the equation 6.

Next, in step S44A, the exposure data difference calculation unit 52c calculates the difference data 52c1 based on the equation 7.

Next, as shown in FIG. 22, as the calculation by the second calculation unit 60, in step S41B, the second unit exposure data calculation unit 61 performs the calculation of the second unit exposure data 61a.

Subsequently, in step S42B, the second exposure data calculation unit 62 calculates the second exposure data 62a based on the equation 8.

Next, as shown in FIG. 23, in step S50, the display unit 90 displays the time-dependent changes of the difference data 52c1 and the second exposure data 62 in a graph format.

Next, in step S60, the comparison unit 70 compares the magnitude relationship between the difference data 52c1 and the second exposure data 62a, the magnitude relationship between the difference data 52c1 and the second exposure data 62a is reversed, and the difference data 52c1 becomes If it is determined that the exposure data is larger than the second exposure data 62a, the process further proceeds to step S70. That is, in step S70, when the increase / decrease calculation unit 80 calculates the increase / decrease of the difference data 52c1 and it is determined that the difference data 52c1 tends to increase, the difference data 52c1 and the second difference data 52c1 and the second difference data 52c1 are determined based on the determination result of the positive / negative determination unit 85. Even if both of the exposure data 62a are determined to be negative values, in step S80, the display unit 90 displays information indicating the buying timing, assuming that the brand has changed to the buying timing.

Next, in step S90, when it is determined that the difference data 52c1 and the second exposure data 62a both change from a negative value to a positive value based on the determination result of the positive / negative determination unit 85 after the purchase timing is changed. In step S100, the display unit 90 further displays information indicating the buying timing, assuming that the brand has further changed to the buying timing.

Subsequently, as shown in FIG. 24, in step S110, the comparison unit 70 compares the magnitude relationship between the difference data 52c1 and the second exposure data 62a, and the magnitude relationship between the difference data 52c1 and the second exposure data 62a. Is reversed, and when it is determined that the difference data 52c1 is smaller than the second exposure data 62a, the process further proceeds to step S100. That is, in step S120, when the increase / decrease calculation unit 80 calculates the increase / decrease of the difference data 52c1 and it is determined that the difference data 52c1 is on a decreasing tendency, the difference data 52c1 and the second difference data 52c1 are determined based on the determination result of the positive / negative determination unit 85. Even if both of the exposure data 62a are determined to be positive values, in step S130, the display unit 90 displays information indicating the selling timing, assuming that the brand has changed to the selling timing.

Next, in step S140, when it is determined that the difference data 52c1 and the second exposure data 62a both change from a positive value to a negative value based on the determination result of the positive / negative determination unit 85 after the selling timing is changed. In step S150, the display unit 90 further displays information indicating the buying timing, assuming that the brand has further changed to the buying timing.

As described above, in the present embodiment, since the stock price prediction device 1 has the exposure data calculation units 52, 62 for calculating the exposure data 52a1, 52b1, 62a, the exposure data 52a1, 52b1, 62a can be calculated, and by extension, the stock price trend can be predicted from the viewpoint of whether or not the stock becomes popular.

Further, the first unit exposure data calculation unit 51 performs averaging processing based on, for example, the predetermined unit exposure data in the unit calculation period 21 and the unit exposure data 21 immediately before the unit calculation period 21. Since the unit exposure data 51a in the unit calculation period 21 is calculated and the averaging process is performed by weighting the predetermined unit exposure data in the unit calculation period 21, the latest exposure data is used to predict the tendency of the stock price. Can be reflected in.

Further, since it is decided to have the display unit 90 for displaying the first exposure data 52a1, 52b1 (more specifically, the difference data 52c) and the second exposure data 62a, the first exposure data 52a1, 52b1 and the second The exposure data 62a can be displayed and visually compared.

Further, since the exposure data 52a1, 52b1, 62a is limited to the data exposed by the television broadcast, it is possible to accurately predict the stock price tendency.

That is, in television broadcasting, the number of broadcasting stations and the broadcasting time are finite, and the exposure data 52a1, 52b1, 62a are also finite. Such finite exposure data 52a1, 52b1, 62a is considered to be reliable and objective, and by using the data exposed by television broadcasting, it is possible to accurately predict the stock price tendency.

That is, it is necessary for a broadcasting station to carry out predetermined administrative procedures such as being unable to open a station without the permission of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, and in the present invention, such exposure data 52a1, 52b1, 62a is finite. It shall be interpreted as data.

On the other hand, for example, on the Internet, individuals or companies can expose data through HP (home page), SNS (social networking service), etc. without special permission, and in the present invention, it is included in finite data. Interpreted as not.

Therefore, "only the data exposed by television broadcasting" means to exclude the exposure data mediated by the Internet or the like, which allows an individual or a company to expose the data without special permission.

Needless to say, the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and various modifications and applications can be carried out.

That is, in the above-described embodiment, the data exposed by broadcasting is defined as the data exposed by television broadcasting, but the data exposed by radio broadcasting or exposed by television broadcasting. The data and the data exposed by radio broadcasting may be appropriately combined.

That is, the data exposed by broadcasting can be the data exposed by television broadcasting and / or the data exposed by radio broadcasting, and the data exposed by broadcasting can be the data exposed by television broadcasting and / or radio broadcasting. Can only be. In the present embodiment, the data exposed by radio broadcasting is also understood as the above-mentioned finite data.

Further, in the above-described embodiment, the third calculation period 13 for calculating the second exposure data 62a is set to be the same calculation period as the first calculation period 11. The calculation period may be the same as the calculation period 12 of 2, or the calculation period may be different in length.

Furthermore, in the above-described embodiment, the stock price forecasting device 1 predicts the tendency of the stock price, but the stock price itself (price itself) may be predicted by the configuration of the present embodiment described above. .. That is, the stock price forecast may include both the forecast of the stock price tendency and the forecast of the stock price itself (price itself).

1: Stock price prediction device m, n, o: Number of unit calculation periods 1A: Bus 1B: Central processing device 1C: Storage device 1D: Input device 10: Calculation period setting unit 11, 12: Calculation period 20: Unit calculation period setting Part 21: Unit calculation period 21a: First unit calculation period 30: Number of units setting unit 50: First calculation unit 51: First unit exposure data calculation unit 51a: First unit exposure data 52: First exposure Data calculation unit 52a: First calculation period exposure data Calculation unit 52a1: First calculation period exposure data (first exposure data)
52b: Second calculation period exposure data calculation unit 52b1: Second calculation period exposure data (second exposure data)
52c: Exposure data difference calculation unit 52c1: Difference data 60: Second calculation unit 61: Second unit exposure data calculation unit 61a: Second unit exposure data 62: Second exposure data calculation unit 62a: Second Exposure data 70: Comparison unit 80: Increase / decrease calculation unit 85: Positive / negative judgment unit 90: Display unit 100: Program

Claims (22)

A stock price forecasting device for predicting the stock price of the forecasting target based on the exposure data of the forecasting target to be the target of predicting the stock price.
A stock price forecasting device having an exposure data calculation unit that calculates the exposure data in a predetermined calculation period. The stock price forecasting device according to claim 1, wherein the exposure data is data exposed by broadcasting. The stock price forecasting apparatus according to claim 2, wherein the data exposed by the broadcast is data exposed by television broadcasting and / or data exposed by radio broadcasting. The stock price forecasting device according to claim 3, wherein the data exposed by the television broadcasting is the data exposed by the cable television broadcasting. The stock price forecasting apparatus according to claim 4, wherein the data exposed by the broadcast is only the data exposed by the television broadcast and / or the radio broadcast. The stock price forecasting device according to claim 1, wherein the exposure data calculation unit calculates an average value of the exposure data in the predetermined calculation period. The predetermined calculation period includes a unit calculation period that is a unit of the calculation period, and the exposure data calculation unit calculates an integrated value obtained by integrating unit exposure data corresponding to the unit calculation period in the predetermined calculation period. The stock price forecasting device according to claim 1, wherein the exposure data corresponding to the calculation period is calculated by the calculation. The exposure data calculation unit divides the integrated value obtained by integrating the unit exposure data by the number of the unit calculation periods in the calculation period and performs averaging processing, whereby the exposure corresponding to the unit calculation period in the calculation period is performed. The stock price forecasting device according to claim 7, wherein the data is calculated. It has a unit exposure data calculation unit that calculates the unit exposure data.
The unit exposure data calculation unit performs averaging processing based on the predetermined unit exposure data in the unit calculation period and the unit exposure data in the unit calculation period immediately before the unit calculation period, thereby performing the unit exposure in the unit calculation period. The stock price forecasting device according to claim 8, wherein the data is calculated. The stock price forecasting apparatus according to claim 9, wherein the predetermined unit exposure data in the unit calculation period is the predetermined integrated exposure data in the unit calculation period. The stock price forecasting apparatus according to claim 9, wherein the unit exposure data in the unit calculation period immediately before the unit calculation period is the unit exposure data calculated by the unit exposure data calculation unit. The stock price forecasting apparatus according to claim 9, wherein the averaging process is performed by weighting a predetermined unit exposure data in the unit calculation period. The calculation period has a first calculation period and a second calculation period.
The exposure data includes the first calculation period exposure data which is the exposure data in the first calculation period, and also includes the second calculation period exposure data which is the exposure data in the second calculation period.
The billing data calculation unit includes an exposure data difference calculation unit that calculates difference data corresponding to the unit calculation period of the first calculation period exposure data and the second calculation period exposure data. Item 1. The stock price forecasting device according to item 1. The thirteenth aspect of claim 13, wherein the exposure data is the first exposure data, and the exposure data calculation unit is a first exposure data calculation unit that calculates the first exposure data. Stock price forecaster. The stock price forecast according to claim 14, wherein the exposure data includes a second exposure data and has a second exposure data calculation unit that calculates the second exposure data in a predetermined calculation period. Device. The predetermined calculation period is a third calculation period, the second exposure data is the exposure data in the third calculation period, and the second exposure data calculation unit is the second exposure. The stock price forecasting device according to claim 15, wherein the data is calculated. The second exposure data calculation unit calculates the average value of the difference data corresponding to the unit calculation period calculated by the exposure data difference calculation unit in the third calculation period, thereby calculating the second exposure data. 16. The stock price forecasting system according to claim 16, wherein the data is calculated. The second exposure data calculation unit calculates the integrated value obtained by integrating the difference data corresponding to the unit calculation period calculated by the exposure data difference calculation unit in the third calculation period, thereby calculating the third. The stock price forecasting system according to claim 16, wherein the second exposure data corresponding to the calculation period is calculated. The second exposure data calculation unit divides the integrated value obtained by integrating the difference data by the number of the unit calculation periods in the third calculation period and performs averaging processing, thereby performing the average processing in the third calculation period. The stock price forecasting device according to claim 18, wherein the second exposure data corresponding to a unit calculation period is calculated. The stock price forecasting apparatus according to claim 15, further comprising a display unit for displaying the first exposure data and the second exposure data. A computer of a stock price forecasting device for predicting the stock price of the forecasting target based on the exposure data of the forecasting target to be predicted of the stock price.
A program characterized by functioning as an exposure data calculation unit that calculates the exposure data. A computer-readable storage medium for storing the program of claim 21.

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