JP2020061005A - Evacuation behavior support system - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide an information system that promptly and appropriately gives evacuation advice or evacuation instructions to residents in cases of sediment disasters.SOLUTION: An evacuation behavior support system that realizes support through an information communication network includes: a computing portion 111 that automatically determines an evacuation route, based on a risk rank that ranks the risk of sediment disasters occurrence for each predetermined area; and a display portion 122 for displaying the evacuation route on a map. The computing portion 111 determines the evacuation route to an evacuation place in an area with a lowest risk rank and the evacuation route with a shortest distance as an optimal evacuation route.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  The present technology relates to a system that supports residents' evacuation behavior in the event of a sediment disaster.

  In recent years, due to unexpected rainfall, even if local governments are taking measures against disasters, they cannot issue swift and accurate evacuation advisories or evacuation orders to residents, and their precious human lives are lost. In particular, in the 2013 Izu Oshima landslide disaster that caused many dead and missing persons, the issue of how and when local governments should issue evacuation advisories or evacuation orders was highlighted.

  In order to enable prompt and accurate evacuation advisory or evacuation instruction, realization of an information system that supports the evacuation advisory or evacuation instruction of the user is progressing. For example, in Patent Document 1, as the prior information before the occurrence of rainfall, the evacuation unit setting means set based on the division information, the risk level setting means according to the rainfall, and the risk level according to the precursor phenomenon An evacuation advisory judgment support system comprising a setting means, and a comprehensive risk level setting means based on a combination of a risk level based on points assigned according to the content of the precursory phenomenon and a risk level due to rainfall. Is disclosed.

JP, 2008-198073, A

  The technology disclosed in Patent Document 1 comprehensively evaluates the risk of sediment disaster occurrence. However, since it is the user who determines the evacuation route based on the evaluated degree of sediment-related disaster risk, the determination of the evacuation route may be arbitrary.

  Currently, when an organization issues an evacuation advisory or evacuation instruction in the event of a disaster, the user arbitrarily collates the map in paper with the weather information sent by FAX to arbitrarily decide the evacuation site and advise the evacuation. Or, an evacuation order has been issued. However, it is difficult to determine the optimal evacuation route after comprehensively judging various information such as weather information, topographical characteristics, and social characteristics of residents. This is especially true for inexperienced users.

  Therefore, it is a main object of the present invention to provide an information system that automatically determines an optimal evacuation route at the time of a sediment disaster.

  In order to achieve the above main object, the present invention is an evacuation behavior support system realized via an information communication network, and is a risk level in which the risk of sediment-related disasters is ranked for each predetermined area. There is provided an evacuation action support system including a calculation unit that automatically determines an evacuation route based on the above, and a display unit that displays the evacuation route on a map.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to automatically determine the optimum evacuation route at the time of a sediment disaster.

It is a whole lineblock diagram of the evacuation action support system concerning an example of an embodiment of this art. It is a flow chart concerning an example of an embodiment of this art. It is a flow chart concerning an example of an embodiment of this art. It is a relationship table between the age of the residents and the distance of the optimum evacuation route according to an example of the embodiment of the present technology. It is a flow chart concerning an example of an embodiment of this art. It is a display screen concerning an example of an embodiment of this art. It is a display screen concerning an example of an embodiment of this art. It is a display screen concerning an example of an embodiment of this art. It is a display screen concerning an example of an embodiment of this art. It is a display screen concerning an example of an embodiment of this art. It is a graph which concerns on an example of an embodiment of this art.

  Hereinafter, an embodiment of an evacuation action support system (hereinafter referred to as the present system) according to the present technology will be described.

  FIG. 1 shows the overall configuration of an embodiment of this system.

  First, the configuration of this system will be briefly described. The server 11 in the evacuation behavior support system 1 includes a calculation unit 111 that determines an optimal evacuation route and the like, a storage unit 112 that stores data such as map data, and a first communication unit 113 that transmits and receives map data and the like. The server 11 and the terminal 12 are connected by the information communication network 2. The information communication network 2 refers to an environment in which a plurality of computers are connected via a wired or wireless line such as LAN, WAN, or Internet. The terminal 12 includes a second communication unit 121 that transmits and receives map data and the like, and a display unit 122 that displays map data and the like.

  Next, the main processing flow of this system will be briefly described. The computing unit 111 of the server 11 determines the evacuation route based on the risk rank, which is stored in the storage unit 112 and ranks the risk of landslide disaster for each predetermined area. The first communication unit 113 transmits the information regarding the determined evacuation route, the map data stored in the storage unit 112, and the like to the terminal 12 through the information communication network 2. As the terminal 12, for example, a PC, a tablet, or a smartphone can be used.

  The second communication unit 121 in the terminal 12 receives the map data and the like transmitted by the server 11. The display unit 122 displays the evacuation route and the like on the map.

  The user issues an evacuation advisory or evacuation instruction to the residents based on the information displayed on the display unit 122. Examples of the issuing means include a website, television broadcasting, radio broadcasting, disaster prevention radio and the like.

  Here, the server 11 and the terminal 12 may be physical or virtual.

  The calculation unit 111, the storage unit 112, and the first communication unit 113 in the server 11 do not need to be stored in one server, and may be distributed to a plurality of servers. Alternatively, the system may be of a multiplexed configuration. The multiplex configuration means a configuration including a plurality of devices having the same function.

  The second communication unit 121 and the display unit 122 in the terminal 12 do not need to be housed in one terminal, and may be distributed to a plurality of terminals.

  For example, the server 11 may include the display unit 122. Alternatively, the terminal 12 may include the calculation unit 111 or the storage unit 112. For example, since the terminal 12 includes the storage unit 112, the first communication unit 113 and the second communication unit 121 reduce the frequency of transmitting and receiving map data. This is because the map data may be stored in the storage unit 112 of the terminal 12.

  Furthermore, for example, since the terminal 12 includes the calculation unit 111 and the storage unit 112, the display unit 122 in the terminal 12 can display the information regarding the sediment-related disaster without the communication between the terminal 12 and the server 11.

<Calculator>
The calculation unit 111 automatically determines the evacuation route based on the risk rank that ranks the risk that a landslide disaster will occur for each predetermined area.

  FIG. 2 illustrates a flowchart of the calculation unit 111. The calculation unit 111 first determines an area having a high risk rank (for example, 4 or more in 5 steps) as an evacuation target area (S1). An evacuation advisory or evacuation instruction is issued to the evacuation target area.

  Here, the risk level (sediment disaster warning mesh information) ranks the risk that a landslide will occur for each predetermined area. For example, the risk level is divided into 5 levels, the first rank is a normal area, the second rank is a caution area, the third rank is a surveillance area, the fourth rank is a caution area, and the fifth rank is a vigilant warning. The area may be set. The risk rank is generally calculated based on precipitation and soil rainfall index.

  Precipitation is a numerical value of the amount of rain (including solid precipitation) that has been or will be expected to fall in a certain period of time.

  The soil rainfall index is a numerical value obtained by using a tank model to quantify the amount of rainfall accumulated in the soil as water content.

  Next, the calculation unit 111 is configured to include one or a plurality of units located around the evacuation target area, that is, within a predetermined distance from the center point of the evacuation target area (for example, within 3 km from the center point of the evacuation target area). Select an evacuation site (S2). The computing unit 111 selects, as the designated evacuation site, the evacuation site in the area having the lowest risk rank of the area to which the evacuation site belongs among the selected evacuation sites (S3). Then, the calculation unit 111 determines the evacuation route from the evacuation target area to the designated evacuation site (S4).

  When there are a plurality of evacuation routes determined in step S4 (S5: Yes), the calculation unit 111 determines the evacuation route with the shortest evacuation route distance as the optimum evacuation route (S6). On the other hand, when there is only one evacuation route determined in step S4 (S5: No), the calculation unit 111 determines that evacuation route as the optimum evacuation route.

  Alternatively, in step S6, the calculation unit 111 may make the determination based on, for example, the height difference of the terrain instead of the distance of the evacuation route. For example, if the sea level of the evacuation site is very high and it is difficult for residents to move, the calculation unit 111 may determine the evacuation route to the evacuation site with a low sea level as the optimum evacuation route. Alternatively, when it is suitable to evacuate to an evacuation site with a high altitude such as water damage, the computing unit 111 may determine the evacuation route to an evacuation site with a high altitude as the optimum evacuation route.

  In addition, the calculation unit 111 may determine the optimum evacuation route based on the social characteristics of the residents. The social characteristics refer to, for example, age group, sex, number of people, occupation, family structure and the like.

  Since it is the residents who evacuate, it can be assumed that the social characteristics of the residents will have a great influence on the determination results of the evacuation route.

  An example of social characteristics is the age group. In 2016, the guidelines regarding evacuation advisories were revised. In this guideline, the name "evacuation preparation information" has been changed to "evacuation preparation / start evacuation of elderly people". This change is a manifestation of national policy that evacuation behavior should be different for the elderly and those not.

  For example, if the residents in the evacuation target area are very old, it may be difficult for them to travel a long distance. This is because, compared with younger people, older people tend to feel inferior in physical fitness and weaken their legs. Therefore, when the distance of the optimum evacuation route determined by the calculation unit 111 is very long, it is unavoidable to prioritize the short distance of the optimum evacuation route over the low risk rank.

  FIG. 3 shows an example of a flowchart in which the calculation unit 111 determines the optimum evacuation route based on the distance of the optimum evacuation route and the average age of residents in the evacuation target area. Here, the fact that the distance of the optimal evacuation route is long is defined as an example where the distance of the optimal evacuation route is 2 km or more. In addition, the fact that the age group of the residents is high is defined as an example that the average age of the residents is 75 years or older.

  As shown in FIG. 3, when the distance of the optimum evacuation route is 2 km or more and the average age of the residents in the evacuation target area is 75 years or older (S7: Yes), the calculation unit 111 causes the processing of FIG. Among the evacuation areas selected in step S8, the evacuation area belonging to the area to which the evacuation area belongs has a higher risk rank than the lowest one is selected as the designated evacuation area (S8).

  This is because, in the process of FIG. 2, the evacuation route to the evacuation site belonging to the area having the lowest risk rank is set as the optimum evacuation route by the calculation unit 111, but it is determined that the distance of the optimum evacuation route is long. . If the risk rank is the lowest, it is not suitable for the optimum evacuation route, and the calculation unit 111 is forced to raise the risk rank by one step.

  Then, the calculation unit 111 determines the evacuation route from the evacuation target area to the designated evacuation site (S9).

  When there are a plurality of evacuation routes determined in step S3 (S10: Yes), the calculation unit 111 determines the evacuation route with the shortest evacuation route distance as the optimal evacuation route (S11). On the other hand, when there is only one evacuation route determined in step S3 (S10: No), the calculation unit 111 determines the evacuation route as the optimum evacuation route.

  In addition, when the optimal evacuation route determined according to the process of FIG. 3 is 2 km or more, the calculation part 111 may determine the optimal evacuation route again according to the process of FIG. In that case, the risk rank becomes one step higher. If the risk rank is not suitable for the designated evacuation site, it will be unavoidable if the optimal evacuation route is 2 km or more.

  In this example, the optimal evacuation route is determined based on the average age of all the residents in the evacuation target area, but the calculation unit 111 determines the optimal evacuation route based on the average age and the oldest age among the residents. May be determined. Alternatively, the calculation unit 111 may determine the optimum evacuation route based on the age group having the largest population. Alternatively, the calculation unit 111 may determine the optimum evacuation route for each inhabitant based on the age of each inhabitant.

  Alternatively, instead of step S7 in FIG. 3, the calculation unit 111 selects the designated evacuation site based on, for example, a matrix associating the average age of residents with the distance of the optimum evacuation route as shown in FIG. Good. In this matrix, items marked with a circle are items that may be selected as designated evacuation sites. For example, when the age item is “70 years old or more and less than 80 years old”, the item of “less than 0.5 km (km)”, “0.5 km or more and less than 1 km”, or “1 km or more but less than 1.5 km” is marked with a circle. Has become. That is, when the average age of the residents is 70 to less than 80, the evacuation site within the range of less than 1.5 km from the evacuation target area may be selected as the designated evacuation site.

  Similarly, when the average age of the residents is 80 or more and less than 90, the calculation unit 111 may select an evacuation site within the range of less than 1 km from the evacuation target area as the designated evacuation site.

  Up to this point, we have explained the age group as an example of the social characteristics of residents. The calculation unit 111 may select the designated evacuation site based not only on the age group but also on the gender of the resident, for example. In general, men have stronger muscles and physical strength than women, so it may be safe even if a designated evacuation site is far, for example.

  Alternatively, the calculation unit 111 may select the designated evacuation site based on the occupation of the residents. For example, farmers are generally considered to have more strength and physical strength than desk workers.

  By the way, there may be a dangerous area with a high risk rank in the middle of the evacuation route. In this case, the calculation unit 111 determines that the evacuation route that bypasses the dangerous area is the optimum evacuation route. The flow of this processing will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG.

  As shown in FIG. 5, when the optimum evacuation route determined according to the process of FIG. 2 includes a dangerous area having a risk rank higher than a predetermined value (for example, 4 or more) (S12: Yes), the calculation unit 111, An evacuation route that bypasses the dangerous area is determined (S13).

  For example, it is assumed that the calculation unit 111 determines that the evacuation route with the shortest distance is the optimum evacuation route. When the optimal evacuation route includes a dangerous area, the calculation unit 111 may determine the evacuation route having the second shortest distance as the optimal evacuation route.

  After determining the optimal evacuation route according to the process shown in FIG. 5, the calculation unit 111 may determine the optimal evacuation route with a shorter distance according to the process of FIG.

  Residents can safely evacuate by determining the evacuation route that bypasses the dangerous area as the optimum evacuation route.

  In addition to the indicated evacuation route, the calculation unit 111 may determine the risk rank, for example. The risk rank can be calculated by using RBFN (Radial Basis Function Network) based on the rainfall amount, soil rainfall index, and the like. Currently, RBFN is used for calculation of landslide disaster risk information.

  For example, the risk rank or the optimal evacuation route changes in response to changes in the amount of precipitation. As a result, a disaster situation can be simulated in advance, so that the user can plan countermeasures against the disaster in advance.

<Memory>
The storage unit 112 stores map data, information about sediment-related disasters, and the like.

  The map data stored in the storage unit 112 includes information on geography, facilities, etc. for each area. Examples of geographic information include roads, mountains, rivers, coasts, plains, and the like. Examples of information about the facility include evacuation sites, police boxes, fire stations, medical facilities, public facilities, and the like. Further, it may include information about the number of people accommodated in the evacuation site, the stockpile, and the like.

  The position of the information regarding the geography or facility may be designated by latitude and longitude, or the coordinates unique to the system may be defined.

  In addition, the information regarding the sediment-related disasters stored in the storage unit 112 includes, for example, the amount of precipitation, the soil rainfall index and the risk degree rank for each area, and the date and time when the agency announces these.

  The storage unit 112 can store map data and information regarding sediment-related disasters as a layer. As a result, the display unit 122 can display the information items in an overlapping manner. For example, the risk rank layer can be displayed on the map layer, and the precipitation layer can be further displayed thereon. The advantages of overlapping information will be described later.

  Further, the storage unit 112 may store information regarding the user. For example, the ID and password for logging in to the system, the latitude and longitude of the area mainly used by the user, and the like are stored.

  Further, the storage unit 112 may store the display magnification when the map is displayed on the display unit 122. On the display unit 122, the user can enlarge or reduce the map for display.

<First communication unit>
The first communication unit 113 can transmit information to the second communication unit 121 of the terminal 12 and can receive information transmitted from the second communication unit 121.

  The information transmitted by the first communication unit 113 is mainly for displaying on the display unit 122. For example, map data and information related to sediment-related disasters such as precipitation, soil rainfall index, and risk rank are listed.

  The information received by the first communication unit 113 is mainly information regarding a user operation performed on the display unit 122. For example, user information, information about sediment-related disasters to be superimposed on a map, and the like can be given.

<Second communication unit>
The second communication unit 123 can transmit information to the first communication unit 113 of the server 11 and can receive information transmitted from the first communication unit 113.

<Display>
The display unit 122 displays the evacuation route on the map. Alternatively, information about sediment-related disasters is displayed by being superimposed on the map data.

  FIG. 6 exemplifies a screen displayed by the display unit 122. The display unit 122 displays information related to sediment-related disasters, for example, a risk degree rank or weather information, etc., on the map data. The weather information includes, for example, precipitation amount and soil rainfall index. When the user selects the type of weather information in the tree shown in FIG. 6, the weather information is displayed on the map.

  Fig. 7 shows an image diagram of the amount of precipitation overlaid on the map. Fig. 8 shows an image of the soil rainfall index superimposed on the map. FIG. 9 shows an image diagram in which the risk ranks are superimposed on the map.

  By superimposing the information about sediment-related disasters on the map data, the information can be centralized in one place and managed centrally. This can reduce the burden on the user in issuing an evacuation recommendation or evacuation instruction. As described above, the current situation is that the user is collating the map on a paper medium with the weather information sent by FAX.

  There are other advantages to accumulating information about sediment-related disasters. The time that can be predicted varies depending on the type of information related to sediment-related disasters. Therefore, by stacking these pieces of information, sufficient time for evacuation can be secured. For example, at present, the risk rank (sediment disaster warning determination mesh information) can be predicted only up to 2 hours ahead, but the precipitation amount can be predicted up to 6 hours.

  Residents can safely evacuate with sufficient time by ensuring sufficient time for evacuation. In addition, the user can significantly reduce the risk of blurring of judgment and delay of the official announcement.

  Alternatively, when coordinating with a disaster prevention specialist in a remote area, by coordinating information related to sediment-related disasters on the basis of map data, it is possible to plan evacuation actions quickly and accurately.

  In this example, the display unit 122 superimposes the information about the sediment disaster on the map data, but the arithmetic unit 111 may superimpose the information. In this case, the information already superposed is transmitted and received between the server 11 and the terminal 12. The display unit 122 also displays the information that has already been superimposed.

  As shown in FIG. 10, when the user designates a specific point, the display unit 122 may display detailed information about the point. For example, as the detailed information on the evacuation site, there are addresses, latitude and longitude, hierarchies, the number of persons accommodated, stockpile items, etc., regarding the evacuation site.

  As shown in FIG. 11, the display unit 122 may display information regarding sediment-related disasters in a specific area, for example, a temporal change in precipitation. The display unit 122 may display, for example, the time on the horizontal axis and the precipitation on the vertical axis, and the temporal change of the precipitation may be displayed in a bar graph or a line graph. Furthermore, the display unit 122 may clearly indicate the time when the information was announced by the institution, display the precipitation amount before that time as the actual value, and display the precipitation amount after that time as the predicted value.

  Further, the display unit 122 may display a plurality of indexes in the graph shown in FIG. The display unit 122 may display, for example, the risk rank and the precipitation amount as the vertical axis index. In this case, the user can observe changes in the risk rank and the precipitation amount over time, and can easily infer the causal relationship between the two.

  Furthermore, the display unit 122 may display, as a moving image, a change over time in the information regarding sediment-related disasters. When the user specifies the type of information regarding sediment-related disasters, the start time and end time of moving images, etc., the user can observe the information regarding sediment-related disasters, for example, the temporal change in precipitation. As a result, the user can easily predict future situations.

  The display unit 122 may change the display magnification of the map. The user can enlarge or reduce the map by moving the scale or the like displayed on the display unit 122.

  When creating the map data in this system, a unique one may be created in this system or an existing map information service (Google Maps or the like) may be used.

  The display unit 122 may display a map around the current position of the terminal by using the GPS (Global Positioning System) function of the terminal.

  The system may be provided with a function for the user to conduct disaster drills so that the system is appropriately used in a landslide disaster. As described above, the system can simulate a disaster situation based on the information about sediment-related disasters. Therefore, by using this system, the user can carry out disaster prevention drills so as to be able to respond promptly and appropriately when an actual disaster occurs. In the event of an actual disaster, multiple organizations will work together to deal with disasters, so disaster drills in advance are important. The result obtained by the training may be stored in this system and the training result may be used when an actual disaster occurs.

  It should be noted that the effects described in the present specification are merely examples and are not limited, and there may be other effects.

  It should be considered that the embodiments disclosed this time are exemplifications in all points and not restrictive. The scope of the present patent is shown not by the above description but by the scope of the claims, and is intended to include meanings equivalent to the scope of the claims and all modifications within the scope.

1 Evacuation Behavior Support System 11 Server 111 Computing Unit 112 Storage Unit 113 First Communication Unit 12 Terminal 121 Second Communication Unit 122 Display Unit 2 Information Communication Network

Claims (5)

An evacuation action support system realized through an information communication network,
A calculation unit that automatically determines the evacuation route based on the risk rank that ranks the risk of sediment-related disasters in each predetermined area,
An evacuation action support system, comprising: a display unit that displays the evacuation route on a map.   The evacuation action support according to claim 1, wherein the calculation unit determines the evacuation route to an evacuation site in an area having the lowest risk rank and the evacuation route having the shortest distance as an optimum evacuation route. system.   The evacuation action support system according to claim 2, wherein the calculation unit determines the optimum evacuation route based on social characteristics of residents.   The evacuation action support system according to claim 2, wherein the calculation unit determines the optimum evacuation route so as to bypass the area having a high risk rank. The evacuation action support system according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the display unit displays information regarding a sediment-related disaster on map data in an overlapping manner.