JP2019203287A - Operation plan planning device and method of planning operation plan - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide a plant operation method that follows unplanned operation or external disturbance.SOLUTION: An operation plan planning device of this invention comprises: a demand estimation section that calculates an estimated value of a demand based on actual operation data of the past related to control target equipment; a replanning determination section that determines necessity of replanning of an operation plan of the equipment by detecting a change in operation with respect to a determined cycle or the equipment; a change limit time calculation section that calculates a change limit time indicating a controllable time-variant boundary point with respect to the equipment that is determined that there is necessity of the replanning based on a determination result by the replanning determination section; an operation plan planning section that makes a plan on an operation plan that optimizes the operation of the equipment with an additional constraint that a correction of advancing an operation switch from the previous operation plan is a correction to a time point after the change limit time based on the estimated value of the demand calculated by the demand estimation section and the change limit time calculated by the change limit time calculation section.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 7

Description

  The present invention relates to an operation plan planning apparatus and an operation plan planning method for a plant.

  Regarding the operation of a water and sewage plant or the like, Patent Document 1 describes, “Determining means for determining whether or not the demand prediction should be corrected based on the demand prediction and measurement result in the distribution network, and the determination result by the determination means” And a demand forecast correcting means for correcting the demand prediction based on the measurement result, and an operation plan correction for correcting the operation plan of the facilities provided in the water distribution network based on the corrected demand forecast. A water operation planning apparatus comprising: means ”,“ the determination means corrects the demand prediction when a difference between the demand prediction and the measurement result is larger than a predetermined reference ”,“ the demand prediction correction ” The means corrects the demand prediction by obtaining a difference between the demand prediction and the actual demand based on the measurement result "," the operation plan correction means is the operation plan Modifying said operation plan by obtaining the difference between a new operation plan which is determined in accordance with the predicted demand "is described as.

JP 2017-82435 A

  In the technique of Patent Document 1, it is not assumed that the operation plan needs to be corrected due to various operation changes due to causes other than demand prediction errors. Examples of operational changes include pump operation outside the operation plan for equipment inspection, and transmission / distribution systems that distribute water from multiple reservoirs to a single distribution area. Even if the amount of water is distributed, the balance of the water distribution between the reservoirs may be different from the plan.

  Further, it is common to formulate an operation plan by limiting operation switching times such as pump start / stop such as every hour on the hour and 30 minutes per hour. For this reason, even when the operation plan is corrected, the degree of freedom in correcting the operation plan is low due to the above limitation, and it is highly likely that it takes at least 30 minutes or more to actually switch the operation. As a result, for example, there is a high possibility that the fluctuation range of the distribution reservoir will become large, and there remains room for further optimization of operation.

  Therefore, an object of the present invention is to provide an operation plan planning apparatus and an operation plan planning method for outputting an operation plan following various operation changes.

  The operation planning apparatus according to the present invention is based on a demand prediction unit that calculates a predicted value of demand based on past operation performance data of a facility to be controlled, and detection of an operation change for a predetermined period or the facility, A re-planning determination unit that determines the necessity of re-planning the operation plan of the facility, and a facility that is determined to be re-planned based on a result of the determination by the re-planning determination unit is controllable Based on a change limit time calculation unit that calculates a change limit time indicating a temporal boundary point, a predicted value of the demand calculated by the demand prediction unit, and the change limit time calculated by the change limit time calculation unit Therefore, the operation plan that optimizes the operation of the equipment is subject to an additional constraint that the correction to advance the operation switching from the previous operation plan is a correction to a time after the change limit time. And operational planning unit to plan, constructed as operational planning apparatus, characterized in that it comprises a.

  The present invention is also grasped as an operation planning method performed by the operation planning apparatus.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to output an operation plan that follows various operation changes.

It is a figure which shows the logical structure of embodiment of an operation plan planning apparatus and a system. It is a hardware block diagram of an operation planning device. It is a figure which shows the structure of the water supply facility group used as the object of operation control. It is a figure which shows the example of an operation plan. It is a figure which shows the detection of the operation change based on the difference of an operation plan and a performance. It is a process flowchart of a change limit time calculation part. It is a figure which shows modification limit time at the time of a re-plan, and correction of a plan. It is a figure which shows the change limit time at the time of a re-plan, and the plan item which is not correction object. It is a figure which shows the example of an operation plan display window.

  Embodiments will be described below with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a logical configuration of the operation control system 100 and the operation plan planning apparatus 101. The operation control system 100 and the operation plan drafting device 101 control the equipment based on the operation plan created in advance, with the water distribution and distribution process as the target of the operation control and the operation plan draft.

  The operation control system 100 includes an operation plan planning device 101, a monitoring control device 102, a sensor 103, and a sub-controller 104.

  The operation plan planning apparatus 101 includes a re-planning determination unit 111, a change limit time calculation unit 112, a demand prediction unit 113, an operation plan planning unit 114, an operation result data storage unit 121, and a change limit basic data storage unit 122. A data collection unit 151, a plan output unit 152, and a plan display unit 153.

  The replan determination unit 111 reads out the operation result data from the operation result data storage unit 121, receives the latest operation plan from the operation plan planning unit 114, and needs to re-plan the operation plan by detecting a predetermined period or operation change. That is, processing for determining whether or not re-planning is necessary is performed. Further, when it is determined that replanning is necessary, the replanning determination unit 111 transmits the determination reason to the change limit time calculation unit 112 and the operation plan planning unit 114. Details of the processing of the re-planning determination unit 111 will be described later with reference to FIG.

  The change limit time calculation unit 112 receives a determination reason from the replan determination unit 111, selects a target facility for replanning included in the determination reason, performs a process of calculating a change limit time of the operation plan, and The target equipment for the plan and the change limit time are transmitted to the operation planning unit 114. Details of the processing of the change limit time calculation unit 112 will be described later together with the description of FIG.

  The demand prediction unit 113 reads past operation result data from the operation result data storage unit 121, calculates a demand prediction value based on the operation result data, and transmits the demand prediction value to the operation plan planning unit 114. . Here, the predicted value of demand refers to a time series of predicted values of water distribution amount for each water distribution area in a predetermined time period (for example, 15 minutes) in a predetermined future period (for example, 24 hours) from the prediction time point. . A known time series prediction method can be adopted as a calculation method for demand prediction.

  The operation planning unit 114 reads the latest operation result data from the operation result data storage unit 121, receives the predicted value of demand from the demand prediction unit 113, and the replanned target equipment and the change limit from the change limit time calculation unit 112. The time is received, and the determination reason is received from the replan determination unit 111. Then, the operation planning unit 114 optimizes the plant operation with an additional constraint that the correction that brings forward the operation switching from the previous operation plan is a correction to a time after the change limit time. A process for creating a plan is performed, and the operation plan is transmitted to the plan output unit 152 and the plan display unit 153. Details of the processing of the operation planning unit 114 will be described later together with the description of FIGS. Details of the operation plan will be described later with reference to FIG.

  The operation result data storage unit 121 accumulates operation result data of the delivery / distribution process for the operation plan object transmitted from the data collection unit 151. The operation result data is read by the re-planning determination unit 111, the change limit time calculation unit 112, the demand prediction unit 113, and the operation plan planning unit 114. The operation result data refers to, for example, sensor measurement values of a delivery / distribution process and data indicating a failure state of a device or a sensor. Further, the operation result data may include related data managed by the monitoring control apparatus 102, that is, alarm information related to a change in the failure state of the device or sensor.

  The change limit basic data storage unit 122 stores, as data serving as a basis for calculation of the change limit time, an allowance time corresponding to the feature of each facility and an upper limit value of the calculation time corresponding to the combination of facilities to be replanned. . In the allowance time, the operation plan after the re-planning which is planned by the operation planning device 101 is transmitted to the re-planning target equipment via the monitoring control device 102 and the sub-controller 104, and the target equipment reflects the operation plan. This is the time until the start of operation after re-planning. A specific method for setting the allowance time will be described later with reference to FIG. The upper limit value of the calculation time is a threshold value of time required for the operation plan planning unit 114 to formulate an optimal operation plan for the target equipment. For example, an optimization problem for the operation plan is calculated. This is a threshold of time allowed for obtaining an approximate optimum solution. Specific usage of the upper limit will be described later with reference to FIG. The data is read by the change limit time calculation unit 112. Details of data stored in the change limit basic data storage unit 122 will be described later with reference to FIG.

  The data collection unit 151 receives the operation result data of the water distribution process as the operation plan target from the monitoring control device 102 and transmits it to the operation result data storage unit 121.

  The plan output unit 152 receives the operation plan from the operation plan planning unit 114 and transmits the operation plan to the monitoring control apparatus 102 as a target value for operation control.

  The plan display unit 153 receives the change limit time from the change limit time calculation unit 112, receives the previous and latest operation plans from the operation plan planning unit 114, and displays them on a display window for the operator. A display example of the plan display unit 153 will be described later with reference to FIG.

The monitoring and control apparatus 102 collects measurement values from the sensor 103 that measures the state of the guided water distribution process to be operated and controlled, and the measurement value, the failure state of the sensor 103 and the device, and the failure state of the sensor 103 and the device. Alarm information related to the change is transmitted to the operation plan planning apparatus 101, and the operation plan is received from the operation plan planning apparatus 101 as a target value for operation control. The control target value is transmitted to the sub-controller 104 that controls the state.
The operation planning device 101 may be realized as a program on a data center installed at a remote location from the monitoring control device 102.

FIG. 2 is a hardware block diagram of the operation planning apparatus. With reference to FIG. 2, the hardware configuration of the operation planning apparatus 101 will be described.
In FIG. 2, an operation planning device 101 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 201, a memory 202, an HDD (Hard Disk Drive) 203, a communication control device 204, an input device 205, a display device 206, a bus. 210.

  The CPU 201 is an arithmetic device that executes a program on the memory 202. The memory 202 is a storage medium that temporarily stores programs, tables, and the like. The HDD 203 is a storage device that holds programs, tables, and the like.

The input device 205 is an input device such as a keyboard and a mouse. The communication control device 204 is a communication device such as a NIC (Network Interface Card) and is connected to the network 220.
The display device 206 is, for example, the display described with reference to FIG.

  A bus 210 is a communication path that interconnects the CPU 201, the memory 202, the media input / output unit 203, the input unit 205, the communication control unit 204, the display unit 206, and the peripheral device IF unit 207.

As is clear from the comparison between FIG. 1 and FIG. 2, the operation planning apparatus 101 in FIG. 1 is realized by the CPU 201 executing the program.
That is, the HDD 203 shown in FIG. 2 includes a replanning determination unit 111, a change limit time calculation unit 112, a demand prediction unit 113, an operation plan planning unit 114, a data collection unit 151, a plan output unit 152, A program for realizing the function of the plan display unit 153 and data accumulated by the operation result data storage unit 121 and the change limit basic data storage unit 122 are stored. The CPU 201 reads out the program from the HDD 203, loads it into the memory 202, and executes it, thereby realizing the functions of the respective units.

  The program is provided in an installable or executable format, recorded on a computer-readable recording medium such as a USB (Universal Serial Bus) memory, or connected to a network such as the Internet. It may be configured to be provided or distributed to the HDD 203 by being stored on another computer and downloaded via a network. The operation planning apparatus 101 and the monitoring control apparatus 102 may be realized as different programs on the same hardware.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of a water supply facility group that is a target of operation control. With reference to FIG. 3, the structure of the water supply / distribution process of the water supply which is a wide area plant which the operation planning apparatus 101 monitors is demonstrated.

  FIG. 3 shows the equipment configuration of the water supply and distribution system. Water is distributed from the distribution reservoirs 301 and 302 to the distribution area 341 by multi-point injection by the distribution pump facilities 321 and 322. In the figure, only a representative water pipe, such as a water pipe 354, is shown. In the distribution area 341, there are terminal stations 361 and 362 for measuring water pressure and water quality. In addition, the natural water is distributed from the distribution reservoir 303 to the distribution area 342 through the pressure reducing valve 334. The inflow to the distribution reservoir 301 includes water received from the water supplier through the water pipe 351 and purified water obtained by treating the raw water from the water pump facility 324 in the water purification plant 311 together. A part of the water in the distribution reservoir 301 is supplied to the distribution reservoir 303 via the water supply pump facility 323 and the water supply pipe 353. The inflow to the distribution reservoir 302 is received from the service water supplier through the water pipe 352. A flow rate adjusting valve 331, a flow rate adjusting valve 332, and a partition valve 333 are provided at the inflow portion from the water pipe of each distribution reservoir.

  In this example, the sensor 103 for collecting the measurement values by the monitoring control device 102 includes a water level meter in each reservoir, each pump facility, a flow meter in the valve, a water pressure meter in each pump facility and the terminal station, and a pump in each pump facility. The operation number, the number of revolutions, the measuring device of power consumption, the measuring device of the opening degree of each valve, etc. correspond.

  In this example, the sub-controller 104 to which the monitoring and control device 102 instructs the control corresponds to a controller that controls the start / stop of each pump, the rotation speed adjusting device, the opening adjustment of each valve, and the like.

  Hereinafter, the water distribution pump facility 321 may be abbreviated as A water distribution pump, the water distribution pump facility 322 may be abbreviated as B water distribution pump, and the water supply pump facility 323 may be abbreviated as C water supply pump.

  With reference to FIG. 4 which shows the example of an operation plan, the example of the operation plan in a present Example is demonstrated. Here, the operation plan refers to a plan for transition of control target or process state in a predetermined future period (for example, 24 hours) from the time of the operation plan.

  Specific examples of the control target or process status include the water flow rate, water flow rate, water flow rate, number of running water pumps, reservoir water level, pump speed, valve opening, target flow rate, etc. There are control targets for pumps and valves. As will be described later, the operation planning device 101 targets the water distribution / distribution process for the operation plan, and the operation planning unit 114 includes the water transfer amount, the water supply amount, the water distribution amount, the number of operation of the transfer water distribution pumps, An operation plan that includes one of the reservoir water levels, including operation of switching the operation and / or stop of the distribution water pump, opening and closing the valve, and changing the control target of the pump or / and the valve as operation switching Develop an operational plan.

  In FIG. 4, as an example of the operation plan, the total water distribution amount of the water distribution area 341, the water level of the distribution reservoir 301, and the temporal transition of the number of pumps operated in the water pump facility 323 are displayed.

  The transition in the operation plan is mainly expressed as a time series of values for each time step (hereinafter, 30 minutes as an example). At this time, in order to express the process that changes every moment as a value every 30 minutes, a value representative of the time step is determined by an appropriate aggregation method. For example, the water level takes a value at every hour on the hour and every 30 minutes, and the water intake / water supply / distribution amount takes an average value for 30 minutes each.

However, operation switching such as starting / stopping of the water supply and distribution pump, opening / closing of the valve, change of the control target of the pump / valve is not limited to every hour and every 30 minutes, but as an operation plan Including. For example, the operation planning apparatus 101 may output an operation plan for switching the number of water pumps operating at the water pump facility 323 from 0 to 1 at 15:05.
In addition, when the water supply flow rate at the time of operation of one water pump is 60 m ³ / h, the amount of water supplied for 30 minutes from 15:00 is output as 60/30 × 25 = 50 m ³ / h.

  Further, the operation plan drafting apparatus 101 drafts an operation plan not only at every hour and every hour at 30 minutes but also at an arbitrary time as an initial state.

  As will be described later, when the re-planning determination unit 111 detects an operation change from the difference between the operation plan and the operation result, the operation plan planning apparatus 101 immediately formulates an operation plan without waiting for the next hour or 30 minutes. At this time, the operation planning apparatus 101 employs a time step from the planning time as the initial state to the next hour or 30 minutes as the first time step of the operation plan.

  This time step results in a shorter irregular length, not 30 minutes. In the formulation of the optimization problem in the operation planning unit 114, the length of the time step is taken into consideration in the constraint condition of the water balance, so that the formula can cope with the irregular length of the time step. The formula will be specifically described later using Equation 2.

FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating detection of an operation change based on the difference between the operation plan and the results, targeting the number of operating A water distribution pumps. With reference to FIG. 5, the process of the re-planning determination part 111 is demonstrated.
The replanning determination unit 111 performs processing in each step of data reception, determination, and result transmission.
In the data receiving step, the re-planning determination unit 111 reads the operation result data from the operation result data storage unit 121 and receives the latest operation plan from the operation plan planning unit 114.
In the subsequent determination step, the replanning determination unit 111 determines the necessity of replanning by two methods. If it is determined that one of the methods is necessary, the determination result of necessity of re-planning is necessary.

  First, as a first method, the replanning determination unit 111 determines that replanning is necessary when the processing time corresponds to a predetermined period. For example, assuming that the re-planning period is 30 minutes, it is determined that re-planning is necessary every hour and every 30 minutes.

  On the other hand, as a second method, the replan determination unit 111 compares the latest operation plan received from the operation plan planning unit 114 with the operation result read from the operation result data storage unit 121, and changes the operation, that is, When an unplanned operation or disturbance is detected, it is determined that re-planning is necessary, and the plant operation can be performed following the unplanned operation or disturbance.

  An example of operation change detection will be described. FIG. 5A shows the latest operation plan value of the number of operating A water pumps, and FIG. 5B shows the actual value of the number of operating water pumps. The pump start time 504 of the actual value 503 is advanced with respect to the pump start time 502 of the operation plan value 501.

  As in this example, the re-planning determination unit 111 determines whether or not the difference in operation switching time between the operation plan and the actual result is larger than a predetermined threshold (for example, 10 minutes), and the difference is larger than the predetermined threshold. Is determined to be larger, an operation change is detected and it is determined that replanning is necessary.

  The re-planning determination unit 111 also has a difference between the operation plan and the actual result in any of the distribution reservoir water level, the water transfer amount, the water supply amount, the water supply amount, and the number of operation of the transfer water distribution pumps being a predetermined threshold value or more. If the difference is larger than a predetermined threshold, an operation change is detected.

  In the final result transmission step, the replanning determination unit 111 transmits the determination reason to the change limit time calculation unit 112 and the operation plan planning unit 114 when the determination result of whether replanning is necessary is necessary. Here, the determination reason is a determination whether the determination is based on a predetermined period or whether an operation change has been detected, and in the latter case, an item in which an operation change has been detected. In the case of the above example, the detected item is an advance of the pump start time of the A water distribution pump.

  By providing the re-planning determination unit 111 described above, the operation plan planning apparatus 101 performs pump operation outside the operation plan for equipment inspection, or distributes water from a plurality of distribution reservoirs to one distribution area. In the existing distribution system, it is possible to detect operational changes such as when the balance of water distribution between distribution reservoirs differs from the plan even if the total water distribution is as predicted.

FIG. 6 is a process flowchart of the change limit time calculation unit. With reference to FIG. 6, the process of the change limit time calculation unit 112 will be described.
In step 601, the change limit time calculation unit 112 starts processing.
In step 602, the change limit time calculation unit 112 receives the determination reason from the re-planning determination unit 111.
In step 603, the change limit time calculation unit 112 selects a re-planning target facility based on the determination reason.

  Here, when the determination reason is the detection of operation change, the change limit time calculation unit 112 re-plans equipment having a large influence by the detection item, specifically, equipment located upstream of the detection item. Select as equipment.

For example, when the operation change detection item is the water level of the reservoir 303, the change limit time calculation unit 112 has the water pump facility 323, the reservoir 301, the flow rate adjustment valve 331, the water purification plant 311, and the water pump facility located upstream. 324 is the target equipment for re-planning. On the other hand, since the distribution pump facilities 321 to 322, the distribution reservoir 302, and the flow rate adjustment valve 332 are not located upstream, the change limit time calculation unit 112 excludes these facilities from being subject to re-planning. Further, for example, when the operation change detection item is the water distribution amount of the distribution pump facility 321-322, the change limit time calculation unit 112 replans the water pump facility 323, the distribution reservoir 303, and the pressure reducing valve 334 that are not upstream. The other equipment will be subject to re-planning.
When the determination reason is determination based on a predetermined cycle, the change limit time calculation unit 112 selects all the facilities as replanning target facilities.

  In step 604, the change limit time calculation unit 112 stores the upper limit value S of the calculation time allowed for the operation plan planning unit 114 corresponding to the re-planning target equipment to obtain an approximate optimum solution, and stores the change limit basic data. Read from the unit 122.

  Here, the change limit basic data storage unit 122 stores the upper limit value of the calculation time in a table format for each combination of replanned target facilities. For example, the change limit basic data storage unit 122 stores the upper limit value of the calculation time for each of the two combinations described above and the combination including all facilities, and is read out by the change limit time calculation unit 112. For the combination of replanned target facilities that are not stored, the upper limit value of the calculation time of the combination including all the facilities stored in the change limit basic data storage unit 122 is the change limit time calculation unit 112. Is read.

In step 605, the change limit time calculation unit 112 reads the margin time R_k from the change limit basic data storage unit 122 for each facility k to be replanned. Note that _ is an abbreviation for subscripts.
Here, the change limit basic data storage unit 122 accumulates the margin time for each facility in a table format.

  The allowance time can be set to a different value depending on the feature of the facility. For example, the number of water pumps operating to adjust the water flow amount is affected by the operator of the operation planning device 101, that is, the operator who monitors the water distribution and distribution system, and the effect on the stability of the water purification process by the revision of the operation plan. In order to secure the time to check, set a longer allowance time than the water pump. On the other hand, for example, the number of operating water pumps that supply water to a reservoir having a capacity smaller than that of the water demand sets a shorter margin time than the water pump in order to promptly optimize the water level of the reservoir. In addition, a margin time can be set according to characteristics such as whether or not remote control is possible from the monitoring control system for the facility.

In step 606, the change limit time calculation unit 112 uses the upper limit value S of the calculation time received in step 604 and the margin time R_k received in step 605 for each equipment k to be replanned, and uses the equation T_k = S + R_k
To calculate the change limit time T_k. The change limit time is a temporal boundary point at which the equipment can be appropriately controlled.

  In Step 607, the change limit time calculation unit 112 transmits the replanning target equipment and the change limit time T_k of each equipment to the operation plan planning unit 114.

  In step 608, the change limit time calculation unit 112 ends the process.

  By providing the change limit time calculation unit 112 described above, the operation plan planning apparatus 101 can precisely evaluate the change limit time of operation switching for each facility, and the operation plan planning unit 114 described later has a higher degree of freedom. Make operational plans.

  In addition, by limiting the equipment to be re-planned based on the determination reason and changing the upper limit of the calculation time of the operation plan planning unit 114, the operation plan planning apparatus 101 advances the change limit time when possible, It is possible to create an operation plan with a higher degree of freedom. Furthermore, the operation plan can be quickly corrected for an operation change that is localized but has a high degree of urgency.

The processing of the operation plan drafting unit 114 will be described with reference to FIGS.
The operation planning unit 114 performs processing in the steps of data reception, optimization problem configuration, optimization problem solution, and result transmission.

  In the subsequent data receiving step, the operation planning unit 114 reads the latest operation result data from the operation result data storage unit 121, receives the predicted value of demand from the demand prediction unit 113, and re-plans from the change limit time calculation unit 112. The target equipment and the change limit time are received, and the determination reason is received from the re-planning determination unit 111.

  In the subsequent optimization problem configuration step, the operation plan drafting unit 114 configures an optimization problem for drafting an operation plan based on the received data. For example, the operation planning unit 114 applies the values when receiving the data to the following formula.

  The optimization problem is expressed below.

Here, f, g_j, h_i are functions,
X: vector expressing the operation plan,
s: a vector representing the state of the transmission and distribution system at the time of operation planning, such as the water level of each reservoir and the operating state of each pump,
D: a vector representing the predicted value of demand,
T: Vector of change limit time of each equipment,
Y: A vector that expresses the previously planned operation plan,
p: equipment index,
P: a set of all equipment,
Q: A set of facilities to be replanned.

  In order to formulate the functions f and g_j, a known method can be used. For example, the function f is a function representing the pump power consumption in the target system, the function g_j is a constraint expression representing the satisfaction of water demand in the distribution area, and the relationship between the inflow, outflow and water level changes that mean the water balance in the distribution reservoir. It is a function that means an equation, a relational expression between the number of pumps operated and the amount of water delivered and delivered in a water delivery and distribution pump facility consisting of only a fixed speed pump. That is, the function g_j can be defined as a function that represents the constraint condition on the facility side. As an example, the relational expression of the inflow, outflow and water level change that means the water balance in the reservoir r is

Can be written. However,
A_r: bottom area of reservoir r
L_r [t]: water level at time step t of water level r,
q_r, in [t]: Inflow at time step t of water level r,
q_r, out [t]: outflow amount at time step t of the water level r,
δ [t]: length of time step t.

  In the above formula 2, the length of the time step t is defined as a variable instead of a fixed value (for example, every 30 minutes) as in the prior art. Therefore, for example, the operation planning section 114 needs to re-plan by the second method until 30 minutes after the first hour has passed (for example, 20 minutes after the first hour). Even when a determination result is received, the time step length δ [t] (for example, 20 minutes) at that time is given to the above formula, and at the timing when the operation change is detected, The operation plan can be revised immediately.

The function h_i is a function representing a constraint condition regarding operation switching, which will be described later.
The constraint equation X_p = Y_p represents that the value of the operation plan prepared last time is adopted as it is for equipment that is not subject to re-planning.

  The constraint condition regarding the operation switching is a condition that the correction that brings the operation switching forward from the previous operation plan is imposed to the time after the change limit time. Details will be described with reference to FIGS.

FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating a change limit time and a plan correction regarding the number of operating B water pumps.
The replan determination time 701 is a time when the replan determination unit 111 executes the processing described in FIG. 5 and determines that replanning is necessary. Periods 702 and 703 respectively indicate the upper limit value of the calculation time of the operation planning unit 114 used for calculation of the change limit time 704 and the margin time of the equipment. Time 704 is the change limit time calculated by the change limit time calculation unit 112.

  The previous plan value 705 is a plan for switching operation to additionally start the pump at a time 706 after the change limit time 704.

  In response to such operation switching, the operation plan drafting unit 114 indicates that as one of the functions h_i, the correction for bringing the operation switching forward from the previous operation plan is correction to a time after the change limit time. impose. That is, it is formulated as one of the functions h_i that the pump addition start time 708 of the corrected planned value 707 that is a candidate for the optimization solution of the optimization problem must be a time after the change limit time 704.

  Moreover, FIG. 8 is a figure which shows the change limit time regarding the operation number of C water pumps, and the plan item which is not correction object. The meanings of the periods 803 and 804 are the same as those in FIG.

The previous plan value 805 is a plan for switching operation to additionally start the pump at a time 806 before the change limit time 804.
For such operation switching, the operation planning unit 114 imposes that the operation switching at the time 806 is directly adopted as the corrected plan value 807 as one of the functions h_i.

  In the subsequent optimization problem solving step, the operation plan planning unit 114 obtains an optimum operation plan as an approximate optimum solution of the optimization problem from the calculation results obtained within the time period 702.

  Although FIG. 8 illustrates an operation plan for equipment that is not subject to correction, the same applies to equipment that is subject to correction. That is, the operation planning unit 114 can impose that the time 806 is adopted as the corrected plan value 807 as it is when the previous plan value 805 is set as a time before the change limit time 804.

  As a method for obtaining the approximate optimum solution of the optimization problem, for example, a known technique such as a genetic algorithm or mathematical programming can be used.

  In the final result transmission step, the operation plan planning unit 114 transmits the operation plan to the plan output unit 152 and the plan display unit 153.

  At the time of processing by the operation plan planning unit 114, the data that can be collected is the state of the plant up to the replan determination time 701. Therefore, the operation plan planning unit 114 sets an operation plan with the replan determination time 701 as an initial state. However, when the process of the operation plan drafting unit 114 ends, the timing for performing control according to the output operation plan is around the change limit time 704.

  By including the operation plan planning unit 114 described above, the operation plan planning apparatus 101 can plan an operation plan with a higher degree of freedom, in which the operation switching is advanced to just after the change limit time when necessary.

  Further, by including the operation plan drafting unit 114 described with reference to FIG. 8, the operation plan drafting apparatus 101 has not performed the operation plan at the time of drafting the operation plan, but has switched the operation switching before the revision of the plan. The subsequent operation plan can be modified on the premise that the operation is switched according to the operation plan. For such operation switching, an operation plan is drawn up based on the assumption of whether or not the operation is implemented, the operation plan is confirmed based on the actual results after the operation plan is formulated, and an operation plan based on the actual results is adopted. Also good.

FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating an example of an operation plan display window. With reference to FIG. 9, the method by which the plan display unit 153 presents the change limit time and the operation plan to the operator will be described.
The operation plan display window 901 displayed on the display or the like by the plan display unit 153 has an item selection panel 911 and a plan detail display panel 912.

  The plan display unit 153 displays the operation plan item options to be displayed on the item selection panel 911. In addition, the plan display unit 153 receives an input of an operation plan item to be displayed in response to a selection operation from the operator on the item selection panel 911.

  The plan display unit 153 displays the replan time 921 calculated by the change limit time calculation unit 112 and the calculation time of the operation plan planning unit 114 for the item selected by the item selection panel 911 with respect to the plan detail display panel 912. Upper limit 922, margin time 923, change limit time 924, previous plan value 935 and revised plan value 937 calculated by the operation plan planning unit 114, and their operation switching times 936 and 938 are displayed.

  By providing the above-described plan display unit 153, the operation plan planning apparatus 101 can inform the operator of the result of correcting the operation plan in which the change limit time 704 has been precisely evaluated.

  In addition, this invention is not limited to an above-described Example, Various modifications are included. For example, the above-described embodiments have been described in detail for easy understanding of the present invention, and are not necessarily limited to those having all the configurations described. Further, a part of the configuration of one embodiment can be replaced with the configuration of another embodiment, and the configuration of another embodiment can be added to the configuration of one embodiment. Further, it is possible to add, delete, and replace other configurations for a part of the configuration of each embodiment. Each of the above-described configurations, functions, processing units, processing means, and the like may be realized by hardware by designing a part or all of them with, for example, an integrated circuit. Each of the above-described configurations, functions, and the like may be realized by software by interpreting and executing a program that realizes each function by the processor. Information such as programs, tables, and files for realizing each function can be stored in a memory, a hard disk, a recording device such as an SSD (Solid State Drive), or a recording medium such as an IC card, an SD card, or a DVD.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 100 Operation control system 101 Operation plan drafting device 111 Replan determination part 112 Change limit time calculation part 114 Operation plan drafting part

Claims (8)

A demand prediction unit that calculates a predicted value of demand based on past operation result data of the equipment to be controlled;
A re-planning determination unit that determines the necessity of re-planning the operation plan of the facility by detecting a change in operation for a predetermined period or the facility;
A change limit time calculation unit that calculates a change limit time indicating a controllable temporal boundary point for the equipment determined to be re-planned based on the result of the determination by the replan determination unit; ,
Based on the predicted value of the demand calculated by the demand prediction unit and the change limit time calculated by the change limit time calculation unit, the correction for moving forward the operation switching from the previous operation plan is performed from the change limit time. As an additional constraint that it is a correction to a later time, an operation plan drafting unit that formulates an operation plan that optimizes the operation of the facility;
An operation planning apparatus characterized by comprising: An operation planning device according to claim 1,
The change limit time calculation unit operates the facility according to an upper limit value of calculation time for the operation plan drafting unit to plan the optimized operation plan and the operation plan re-planned by the operation plan drafting unit. By adding the margin time until the time when the re-planning determination unit determines that the operation plan needs to be re-planned, the change limit time is calculated.
An operation planning device characterized by that. An operation planning device according to claim 1,
The operation plan planning unit adopts the previous operation plan for operation switching to a time before the change limit time,
An operation planning device characterized by that. An operation planning device according to claim 1,
The operation planning device targets a water supply and distribution process for operation planning,
The operation plan drafting unit is the operation plan including any one of the water transfer amount, the water transfer amount, the water distribution amount, the number of operation of the transfer water distribution pumps, and the water level of the distribution pond, and the start of the transfer water distribution pump as the operation switching Or drafting the operation plan including any one of the operations of stopping and opening / closing the valve, changing the control target of the pump or / and the valve,
An operation planning device characterized by that. An operation planning device according to claim 1,
The re-planning determination unit is based on the operation plan and operation results, and the difference in any one of the operation switching time, the reservoir water level, the water transfer amount, the water supply amount, the water supply amount, and the operation number of the transfer water distribution pumps. Detecting the operation change when it is equal to or greater than a predetermined value, and determining the necessity of re-planning the operation plan;
An operation planning device characterized by that. An operation planning device according to claim 2,
The change limit time calculation unit calculates the change limit time for each facility based on the margin time according to the feature for each facility.
An operation planning device characterized by that. An operation planning device according to claim 2,
Based on the reason for the determination by the replan determination unit, the operation plan drafting unit selects a target facility for replanning and corrects the operation plan,
The change limit time calculation unit calculates the change limit time using an upper limit value of the calculation time corresponding to the selected re-planning target equipment,
An operation planning device characterized by that. The demand forecasting unit calculates the predicted value of demand based on the past operation data of the equipment to be controlled,
The re-planning determination unit determines the necessity of re-planning the operation plan of the facility by detecting the operation change for the predetermined cycle or the facility,
A change limit time calculation unit calculates a change limit time indicating a controllable temporal boundary point for the equipment determined to be re-planned based on the determination result by the re-plan determination unit And
Based on the predicted value of the demand calculated by the demand forecasting unit and the change limit time calculated by the change limit time calculation unit, the operation plan drafting unit corrects the operation switching forward from the previous operation plan. , As an additional constraint that it is a correction to a time after the change limit time, an operation plan for optimizing the operation of the equipment is made,
An operation planning method characterized by this.

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