CN111461559B - Spare part demand determining method and device and electronic equipment - Google Patents
Spare part demand determining method and device and electronic equipment Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The application provides a spare part demand determining method, a device and electronic equipment, wherein for any spare part, average consumption J of the spare part per unit time can be obtained by acquiring the spare part consumption of a standing-off unit in normal tasks during tasks and the total number of the spare parts in all equipment with the spare part 0 . In addition, by acquiring the empirical data P of the consumption of spare parts per unit time ‑1 Then based on J 0 And P ‑1 An average consumption prediction amount per unit time of spare parts for the next period is determined. And finally, combining the total time length of the normal task in the next period of the standing-outside unit and the total number of the spare parts in all equipment with the spare parts in the next period of the standing-outside unit, so as to obtain the spare part demand in the plan of the next period of the standing-outside unit. Therefore, the determination of the planned spare part demand of the spare part by the outside-standing unit in the next period is realized, and the reasonable allocation of spare part resources of the outside-standing unit is facilitated while the combat capability of the outside-standing unit is effectively ensured.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the field of data automation processing, in particular to a spare part demand determining method and device and electronic equipment.
Background
The standing-off unit is a unit which is mainly active in abroad and completes corresponding tasks in abroad, such as a standing-off engineering team and the like. The reliability management of the equipment of the outside units becomes an important ring for ensuring the fight capability (i.e. the task execution capability and completion capability of the outside units) of the outside units because the outside units are mainly active in foreign countries, equipment and other main domestic supports.
The demand prediction of equipment spare parts of the outside-standing units is an important ring for reliability management of the equipment of the outside-standing units. In general, the number and variety of equipment in a resident unit are specified clearly before the resident unit is dispatched or in a related schedule established every year, but the equipment is often lost in use, and thus maintenance is required. In order to effectively ensure the combat capability of the units outside the station, reasonable allocation of resources is realized, so that accurate prediction is required for spare parts for equipment maintenance. Currently, demand forecast for equipment spare parts is usually manually forecast, i.e. the demand of each equipment spare part is manually set empirically, and spare parts of corresponding demand are distributed to the outside units. However, the demand measured by the method is influenced by subjective factors of measuring staff, and often has larger deviation from the actual demand and low accuracy.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the application aims to provide a method, a device and electronic equipment for determining the demand of spare parts, which are used for solving the problems of larger deviation between a measuring result and the actual demand and low accuracy in a manual prediction mode and realizing the determination of the demand of spare parts required by a standing-off unit.
The embodiment of the application provides a spare part demand determining method, which comprises the following steps: for any spare part, acquiring spare part consumption R of a standing-by unit in a planned normal task during the task Z0 And the total number C of spare parts in all equipment with the spare parts in the outside-standing unit 0 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the According to said R Z0 The C is 0 Determining the average consumption J of the spare parts in unit time according to the executed task time of the standing-by unit 0 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Obtaining empirical data P of consumption per unit time of said spare parts -1 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the According to the J 0 And P -1 Determining a predicted average consumption per unit time P of the spare parts for the next period 1 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Acquiring a total time length T of a normal task in a next time period plan of the standing-off unit Z1 And the total number C of spare parts in all equipment with the spare parts in the next period of the standing-outside unit 1 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the According to the P 1 、T Z1 And C 1 Determining spare part demand Q in next period plan of the outside-standing unit 1 。
In the implementation process, for any spare part, the spare part consumption R of the normal task in the plan is obtained during the task by acquiring the standing-by unit Z0 And the total number C of spare parts in all equipment with the spare parts in the outside-standing units 0 The average consumption J of the spare part in unit time can be obtained 0 . Further, by acquiring the empirical data P of the consumption per unit time of the spare part -1 Then based on J 0 And P -1 Determining a predicted average consumption per unit time P of the spare parts for the next period 1 . And finally, combining the total time length T of the normal tasks in the next time period plan of the standing-off unit Z1 And the total number C of the spare parts in all equipment with the spare parts in the next period of the standing-outside unit 1 The spare part demand Q in the plan of the next period of the standing-off unit can be obtained 1 . Thus, through the knotAverage consumption per unit time J of the spare parts 0 And empirical data P of consumption per unit time of the spare part -1 The method and the device realize the determination of the planned spare part demand of the spare part of the outside-standing unit in the next period, thereby being beneficial to realizing reasonable allocation of spare part resources of the outside-standing unit while effectively ensuring the combat capability of the outside-standing unit. Compared with the traditional manual prediction mode, the prediction is performed by relying on the historical data of the outside-standing units, the influence of subjective factors of personnel is less, the measured and calculated result is often closer to the actual need, meanwhile, the manual investment can be reduced, and the labor cost is saved.
Further, according to the J 0 And P -1 Determining a predicted average consumption per unit time P of the spare parts for the next period 1 Comprising: according to formula P 1 ＝K -1 P -1 +K 0 J 0 Determining a predicted average consumption per unit time P of the spare parts for the next period 1 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein K is -1 And K 0 Weight parameters in the process of determining the demand of the spare parts are determined, and K is the weight parameters -1 +K 0 =1, and said K -1 And K 0 All are greater than or equal to 0.
In the implementation process, by constructing P 1 ＝K -1 P -1 +K 0 J 0 This operational model, and set K -1 +K 0 =1, thereby passing the weight parameter K -1 And K 0 Average consumption per unit time of spare part J 0 And empirical data P of consumption per unit time of the spare part -1 Organically combined, by comprehensively evaluating J 0 And P -1 Both indicators enable a reliability prediction of the average consumption per unit time of the spare part on a single piece of equipment for the next period.
Further, according to the J 0 And P -1 Determining a predicted average consumption per unit time P of the spare parts for the next period 1 Previously, the method further comprises: obtaining average consumption predicted value P of spare parts in unit time in current period obtained in last spare part demand determination process 0 And last time spare parts are madeEmpirical data of consumption per unit time P 'of the spare parts in demand determination' -1 Average consumption per unit time J 'of said spare parts' 0 And a weight parameter K' -1 And K' 0 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the According to the P 0 、J 0 、P′ -1 、J′ 0 Weight parameter K 'for last spare part demand determination' -1 And K' 0 Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 。
In the implementation process, through P 0 、J 0 、P′ -1 、J′ 0 Four parameters are used for determining weight parameter K 'in the last spare part demand determination' -1 And K' 0 Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 So that the weight parameter K for making the demand determination is used each time -1 And K 0 And the adaptive change is realized, so that the prediction accuracy is improved.
Further, according to the P 0 、J 0 、P′ -1 、J′ 0 Weight parameter K 'for last spare part demand determination' -1 And K' 0 Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 Comprising: according to the formula
Determining a transformation value x of the weight parameter; weight parameter K 'for last spare part demand determination according to the transformation value x' -1 And K' 0 Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 。
It should be appreciated that since the predictive model is P 1 ＝K -1 P -1 +K 0 J 0 Then, when the spare part demand is determined last time, the average consumption per unit time of the spare part is predicted to be P in the current period obtained in the last spare part demand determination process 0 Namely, the existence: p (P) 0 ＝K′ -1 P′ -1 +K′ 0 J′ 0 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Setting the conversion value x of the weight parameter, i.e. K -1 ＝K′ -1 +x, also K -1 +K 0 =1, thus having K 0 ＝K′ 0 -x, the average consumption per unit time of the spare part actually measured and calculated on a single piece of equipment in the previous period is J 0 Thus, in theory, J if the prediction is completely accurate 0 ＝P 0 ＝K′ -1 P′ -1 +K′ 0 J′ 0 However, since there may be a deviation, the weight parameter needs to be adjusted so that K can be obtained by the adjusted weight parameter -1 P′ - +KJ′0 ＝J 0 Then based on K -1 P′ -1 +K 0 J′ 0 ＝J 0 ，P 0 ＝K′ -1 P′ -1 +K′ 0 J′ 0 ，K -1 ＝K′ -1 +x，K 0 ＝K′ 0 -x can be derived
Thus according to the formula
The transformation value x of the weight parameter is determined, so that the transformation value can better meet the prediction transformation rule, and the prediction accuracy is improved.
Further, in accordance with the formula
After determining the transformed value x of the weight parameter, the method further comprises: judging whether the absolute value of the transformation value x is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset first threshold value c; the c is a constant greater than 0; correspondingly, according to the transformation value x, the weight parameter K 'when the spare part demand is determined last time' -1 And K' 0 Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 Comprising: at the absolute value of x is less than or equal to a preset first threshold value cCalculating the K 'in absolute terms' -1 And obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process from the sum value of the transformation value x -1 Calculating the K' 0 And the difference value of the conversion value x to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process 0 。
In practical application, the data in a certain spare part demand determination period may be abnormal due to the influence of international environment and other factors (such as average consumption J per unit time obtained by actual measurement of spare parts 0 Suddenly becoming much larger or smaller). In the embodiment of the application, in order to make the measurement result more fit to most cases, the influence of the change value x abrupt change caused by these special cases needs to be reduced. In the implementation process, a preset first threshold c may be preset, and when the absolute value of x is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, the value is based on K -1 ＝K′ -1 +x，K 0 ＝K′ 0 -x adjusting the weight parameter.
Further, according to the transformation value x, the weight parameter K 'in the last spare part demand determination is calculated' -1 And K' 0 Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 Further comprising: when the absolute value of x is larger than the absolute value of a preset first threshold value c, determining whether the absolute value of a conversion value x1 is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold value c in the last spare part demand determining process; if the absolute value of the transformation value x1 is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold value c in the last spare part demand determining process: calculating the K 'when the transformation value x is greater than 0' -1 And obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process from the sum value of the preset first threshold value c -1 Calculating the K' 0 And the difference value of the preset first threshold value c is used for obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determining process 0 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Calculating the K 'when the transformation value x is less than 0' -1 And the difference value of the preset first threshold value c is used for obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determining process -1 Calculating the K' 0 And obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process from the sum value of the preset first threshold value c 0 。
In the implementation process, when the absolute value of x is greater than the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, it may be further determined whether the absolute value of the transformed value x1 in the previous spare part demand determining process is also greater than the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, and when the absolute value of the transformed value x1 in the previous spare part demand determining process is less than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, it indicates that there is a sudden change of the data amount caused by the special situation in the current spare part demand determining process, so that the adjustment of the weight parameter may be performed according to the preset first threshold c, specifically, when x obtained above is greater than 0, according to K -1 ＝K′ -1 +c，K 0 ＝K′ 0 C obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 When x is less than or equal to 0, the method is based on K -1 ＝K′ -1 -c，K 0 ＝K′ 0 +c obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the demand of the spare part -1 And K 0 。
Further, according to the transformation value x, the weight parameter K 'in the last spare part demand determination is calculated' -1 And K' 0 Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 Further comprising: if the absolute value of the transformation value x1 is larger than the absolute value of the preset first threshold value c in the last spare part demand determining process: judging whether the absolute value of the transformation value x in the current spare part demand determining process is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset second threshold d, wherein d is a constant larger than c; if the absolute value of the transformation value x in the current spare part demand determining process is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset second threshold d, calculating the K '' -1 And obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process from the sum value of the transformation value x -1 Calculating the K' 0 And the difference value of the conversion value x to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process 0 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the If the demand of the spare parts is determined in the processThe absolute value of the transformation value x is larger than the absolute value of a preset second threshold d: calculating the K 'when the transformation value x is greater than 0' -1 And obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process from the sum value of the preset second threshold value d -1 Calculating the K' 0 And obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process from the difference value of the preset second threshold value d 0 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Calculating the K 'when the transformation value x is less than 0' -1 And obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process from the difference value of the preset second threshold value d -1 Calculating the K' 0 And obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process from the sum value of the preset second threshold value d 0 。
In the implementation process, when the absolute value of x is larger than the absolute value of the preset first threshold value c and the absolute value of the transformation value x1 in the last spare part demand determination process is also larger than the absolute value of the preset first threshold value c, namely the large transformation value is considered to be normal, the method can further determine and judge whether the absolute value of the transformation value x in the current spare part demand determination process is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of the preset second threshold value d, and when the absolute value of the transformation value x is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of the preset second threshold value d, the method can be based on K -1 ＝K′ -1 +x，K 0 ＝K′ 0 -x obtaining the weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the If the absolute value of the transformation value x in the current spare part demand determination process is larger than the absolute value of the preset second threshold d, namely triggering the control mechanism, when the previously obtained x is larger than 0, determining that the transformation value x is larger than 0 according to K -1 ＝K′ -1 +d，K 0 ＝K′ 0 D obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 When x is less than or equal to 0, the method is based on K -1 ＝K′ -1 -d，K 0 ＝K′ 0 +d obtaining the weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 Thereby avoiding the overlarge data abnormality and improving the preset accuracy.
Further, according to the P 1 、T Z1 And C 1 Determining spare part demand Q in next period plan of the outside-standing unit 1 Thereafter, the method further comprises: acquiring an estimated unscheduled task time T according to the residence situation of the residence unit f1 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the According to the P 1 、T f1 And C 1 Determining an unplanned spare part demand Q for a next period of the outside-standing unit 2 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the According to said Q 1 And Q 2 And determining the spare part demand Q of the next period of the outside-standing unit.
In practical applications, a standing-for-the-outside unit may be required to complete some unplanned tasks due to certain emergency situations. In the implementation process, the unplanned task time is considered, and then the unplanned spare part demand of the next time period of the standing-off unit is determined, so that the prediction result is more reliable.
The embodiment of the application also provides a spare part demand determining device, which comprises: the device comprises an acquisition module and a processing module; the acquisition module is used for acquiring the spare part consumption R of the normal task in the plan of the standing-for unit during the task for any spare part Z0 And the total number C of spare parts in all equipment with the spare parts in the outside-standing unit 0 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The processing module is used for processing the R Z0 The C is 0 Determining the average consumption J of the spare parts in unit time according to the executed task time of the standing-by unit 0 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The acquisition module is also used for acquiring the empirical data P of the consumption of the spare parts in unit time -1 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The processing module is also used for processing the data according to the J 0 And P -1 Determining a predicted average consumption per unit time P of the spare parts for the next period 1 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The obtaining module is further configured to obtain a total duration T of a normal task in a next period plan of the outside-standing unit Z1 And the total number C of spare parts in all equipment with the spare parts in the next period of the standing-outside unit 1 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The processing module is further configured to, according to the P 1 、T Z1 And C 1 Determining spare part demand Q in next period plan of the outside-standing unit 1 。
The realization process realizes the determination of the required quantity of spare parts required by the outside-standing units, thereby being beneficial to realizing reasonable allocation of spare part resources of the outside-standing units while effectively ensuring the combat capability of the outside-standing units. Compared with the traditional manual prediction mode, the prediction is performed by relying on the historical data of the outside-standing units, the influence of subjective factors of personnel is less, the measured and calculated result is often closer to the actual need, meanwhile, the manual investment can be reduced, and the labor cost is saved.
The embodiment of the application also provides electronic equipment, which comprises: a processor, a memory, and a communication bus; the communication bus is used for realizing connection communication between the processor and the memory; the processor is configured to execute one or more programs stored in the memory to implement any of the spare part demand determining methods described above.
There is also provided in an embodiment of the present application, a readable storage medium storing one or more programs executable by one or more processors to implement any one of the spare part demand determining methods described above.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application, the drawings that are needed in the embodiments of the present application will be briefly described below, it should be understood that the following drawings only illustrate some embodiments of the present application and should not be considered as limiting the scope, and other related drawings may be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for determining a spare part demand according to an embodiment of the present application;
Fig. 2 is a schematic flow chart of determining an unplanned spare part demand of a next period of a standing-for-outside unit according to an embodiment of the present application;
fig. 3 is a schematic flow chart of a spare part dispatch volume according to an embodiment of the present application;
fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of a spare part demand determining device according to an embodiment of the present application;
fig. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application.
Embodiment one:
the embodiment of the application provides a spare part demand determining method, please refer to fig. 1, which includes:
s101: for any spare part, acquiring spare part consumption R of a standing-by unit in a planned normal task during the task Z0 And the total number C of spare parts in all equipment with the spare parts in the outside-standing unit 0 。
It should be noted that, the foreign units in the embodiments of the present application refer to units that are assigned to foreign places by domestic organizations to perform certain tasks or tasks, such as engineering teams that are assigned to foreign places.
It should be further noted that, usually, a plan is made for the outside units before they are dispatched or periodically (for example, every year), in which, what tasks the outside units plan to perform in the next period have, what equipment is carried, what number of each equipment is, etc. are made.
It should be further noted that the tasks executed by the standing-for-a-party during the tasks may be divided into two types, one type is a normal task in the plan that needs to be completed by the standing-for-a-party determined in the pre-established plan, and the other type is a task (i.e., an unplanned task) executed by the standing-for-a-party during the tasks due to an emergency. For normal tasks in the plan, the task time and the task quantity can be determined according to a preset plan, so that the spare part demand quantity of the normal tasks in the plan of the next time period can be accurately predicted based on the existing data.
It should be further noted that, during the task, the outside-standing unit may report data to the domestic management center periodically or aperiodically, where the reported data includes, but is not limited to, spare part consumption conditions, and the like. In the embodiment of the application, the reliability measurement and calculation of the spare part demand in the next period of the outside-standing unit are realized by processing the data reported by the outside-standing unit by depending on the data reported by the outside-standing unit.
In a possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, according to the data reported by the outside-standing unit, the consumption and consumption of the spare part in the data without repetition at different periods may be summed to obtain the actual consumption R from the time when the task is executed by the outside-standing unit to the time when the data is reported last time r0 At the same time, counting the time t consumed for executing normal tasks in the plan in the data reported from the period of dispatching execution tasks to the latest reporting data by the outside units Z And time t spent executing unplanned tasks f Further, the spare part consumption R of the normal task in the plan is determined and obtained during the task of the standing-by unit according to the execution time Z0 Namely R is Z0 ＝(t Z /(t Z +t f ))×R r0 。
In another possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, the tasks executed by the standing-outside units in the non-repeated data of different periods may be identified according to the data reported by the standing-outside units (one possible identification manner is to compare the tasks executed by the standing-outside units with the scheduled book made in advance for the standing-outside units), determine the data corresponding to the normal tasks in the execution plan, and further extract the consumption of the spare part of each normal task from the data and accumulate the consumption of the spare part of each normal task, so as to obtain the spare part consumption R of the normal task in the plan during the task of the standing-outside units Z0 。
It should be further noted that, in the embodiment of the present application, the description is directed to a process for determining the demand of a spare part, and in an actual application environment, it is often required to predict the demand of multiple spare parts in the next period, so that in the actual application environment, it is required to determine, respectively, for different spare parts according to the process described in the embodiment of the present application.
S102: according to the R Z0 The C is 0 and The executed task time t of the outside standing unit determines the average consumption J of the spare part in unit time 0 。
It should be understood that R Z0 Spare part consumption of normal task in plan during task for the off-premise unit, and C 0 For the total number of spare parts in all equipment with the spare parts in the outside-standing unit, t is the time of the task being executed in the outside-standing unit (i.e. the total time of all tasks executed since the outside-standing unit dispatches the task to the latest time of reporting data), thus passing R Z0 /(C 0 X t) to determine the average consumption J of the spare part per unit time 0 。
S103: obtaining empirical data P of consumption per unit time of the spare part -1 。
In the embodiment of the present application, the unit time consumption empirical data P of spare parts -1 The historical average consumption per unit time of the spare part may be. Exemplary, i.e. the time the spare part demand was determined last, the actual consumption R 'of the spare part is obtained from the time the task was performed outside the outside unit to the time the spare part demand was determined last' r0 And the total time T of executing tasks from the time of executing tasks by the outsourcing unit to the time of last determining the spare part demand, and then R' r0 T as P in the current spare part demand determination process -1 。
It should be noted that, when the outside-standing unit dispatches to a place for the first time to perform a task, since the outside-standing unit does not report data, the first demand of the outside-standing unit for the spare part can be determined by referring to the demands of other outside-standing units for the spare part, where the situation of the premises is similar to that of the premises to which the outside-standing unit is going.
It should be noted that, when determining the demand of the spare part according to the data reported by the outside-standing unit for the first time after the outside-standing unit arrives at the residence and reports the data, the average consumption of the spare part corresponding to the outside-standing unit referred before the outside-standing unit goes to the residence can be used as the single of the spare partBit time consumption empirical data P -1 To ensure that predictions can be made normally. In the subsequent determining process of the demand of each spare part, the data of the resident units referenced before the resident units go to the residence are not needed to be determined.
S104: according to the J 0 And P -1 Determining a predicted average consumption per unit time P of the spare part for the next period 1 。
In an embodiment of the present application, a calculation model is provided, where the arithmetic formula is: p (P) 1 ＝K -1 P -1 +K 0 J 0 Wherein K is -1 And K 0 Weight parameters in the process of determining the demand of the spare parts are determined, and K is the weight parameters -1 +K 0 =1, and K -1 And K 0 All are greater than or equal to 0.
It should be understood that, in order to improve the accuracy of the measurement of the model, the accuracy of the weight parameters adopted in each measurement is particularly important. In order to make the result obtained in each measurement more closely approximate to the average consumption per unit time of the spare part actually on the single equipment in the next period, the predicted average consumption per unit time of the spare part P can be predicted by the last time the spare part demand is determined in the embodiment of the application 0 And the average consumption J of spare parts per unit time obtained by actual calculation of the data 0 To dynamically adjust the weight parameters.
In the embodiment of the application, the conversion value x of the weight parameter can be set, and K is set -1 ＝K′ -1 +x, and K 0 ＝K′ 0 -x, wherein K' -1 And K' 0 Weight parameters for the last determination of spare part demand. Then the last time the spare part demand determination was made, there are:
P 0 ＝K′ -1 P′ -1 +K′ 0 J′ 0 (1)
in the above formula (1), P 0 For the average consumption of spare parts per unit time in the current period calculated in the last spare part demand determination, and P' -1 I.e. lastEmpirical data of consumption per unit time of spare part when the spare part demand is determined next time, J' 0 The average consumption per unit time of the spare part for the last time the spare part demand was determined.
And when the spare part demand is determined this time, the obtained average consumption of the spare part per unit time is J 0 J when fully accurate 0 ＝P 0 That is, the weight parameters do not need to be adjusted, but if there is a deviation, the weight parameters need to be adjusted to obtain the weight parameters available this time, so there are:
J 0 ＝K -1 P′ -1 +K 0 J′ 0 ＝(K′ -1 +x)P′ -1 +(K′ 0 -x)J′ 0 (2)
subtracting equations (2) and (1) to transform, and obtaining
According to->
Can also be obtained, when the spare part demand is determined last time, if the measurement is completely accurate, J 0 ＝P 0 X=0, corresponding to J 0 And P 0 The larger the deviation of (i.e. the absolute value of the transformed value x) the larger the adjustment amount.
Based on the above analysis, in the embodiments of the present application, it can be determined that the following J applies 0 And P -1 Determining an average consumption per unit time prediction amount P of spare parts of a next period 1 Previously, the average consumption predicted value P of the spare part per unit time in the current period obtained in the last spare part demand determination process is obtained 0 And empirical data of consumption per unit time P 'of spare parts at the time of last determination of the demand of spare parts' -1 Average consumption per unit time J 'of the spare part' 0 And a weight parameter K' -1 And K' 0 Further according to the formula
Determining the rightThe transformed value x of the heavy parameter.
It should be noted that in the process of determining the equipment requirement of the outside-standing unit, the number of spare parts required by the outside-standing unit in the next year can be calculated each time by taking one year as a stage. In real life, normal tasks in a standing-for-home unit plan are usually accurate to months, so the unit time in the embodiment of the application can be in units of months.
It should be noted that in practical application, the demand of a spare part is particularly large or small in a certain period of time due to the influence of special factors such as international environment (this results in the average consumption J per unit time of the spare part 0 Suddenly increasing or decreasing, resulting in a sudden change of the transformed value x). In order to reduce the influence of the sudden changes of the transformation value x caused by these special cases, a preset first threshold value c (c is greater than 0) can be preset, and a weight parameter K 'is used for determining the spare part demand according to x' -1 And K' 0 Before adjustment, it is determined whether the absolute value of the transformed value x is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold c.
When the absolute value of x is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, according to K -1 ＝K′ -1 +x，K 0 ＝K′ 0 -x adjusting the weight parameter.
When the absolute value of x is greater than the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, in a feasible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, the transformed value x1 in the last spare part demand determining process may be obtained, and further, whether x exceeds the threshold c multiple times continuously is determined by determining whether the absolute value of x1 is less than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold c.
If the absolute value of x1 is less than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, it can be considered that this is only a special case encountered once, and can be adjusted according to the threshold c. Specifically, when x is greater than 0, the method can be based on K -1 ＝K′ -1 +c，K 0 ＝K′ 0 C obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 And x is less than or equal toAt 0, according to K -1 ＝K′ -1 -c，K 0 ＝K′ 0 +c obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the demand of the spare part -1 And K 0 。
Accordingly, if the absolute value of x1 is greater than the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, it is considered that this is not a special case, and the weight parameter K 'at the time of the last determination of the spare part demand may be determined with a change value exceeding the threshold c' -1 And K' 0 And (5) adjusting.
At this time, one possible way is directly based on K -1 ＝K′ -1 +x，K 0 ＝K′ 0 -x obtaining the weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 。
However, in order to prevent a situation in which prediction caused by the conversion value x that does not obviously conform to the conventional change situation deviates significantly from reality, in another possible manner of the embodiment of the present application, the second threshold d may be preset (d is greater than c), and then it is determined whether the absolute value of the conversion value x in the current spare part demand determining process is less than or equal to the absolute value of the preset second threshold d.
If the absolute value of the transformation value x in the current spare part demand determination process is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of the preset second threshold d, the method can be based on K -1 ＝K′ -1 +x，K 0 ＝K′ 0 -x obtaining the weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 。
If the absolute value of the transformation value x in the current spare part demand determination process is larger than the absolute value of the preset second threshold d, when the transformation value x is larger than 0, the method is based on K -1 ＝K′ -1 +d，K 0 ＝K′ 0 D obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 And when the transformation value x is smaller than 0, according to K -1 ＝K′ -1 -d，K 0 ＝K′ 0 +d obtaining the weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 Thereby avoiding the overlarge data abnormality and improving the preset accuracy.
It should be understood that, in this embodiment of the present application, in the process of determining the continuous spare part demand for two times, the absolute value of the transformation value is greater than the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, and then the preset second threshold d may be used as a new preset first threshold in the next prediction, and the original preset first threshold c is cleared, and then a new second threshold is added.
In one possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, the preset second threshold may be twice the preset first threshold, i.e. d may be 2 times c.
It should be understood that, for the weight parameter when determining the demand of the spare part for the first time, the engineer may set the change condition of the demand of the spare part according to the actual situation of the premises of the outside-standing unit, and with reference to other outside-standing units of which the premises is similar to the situation of the premises to which the outside-standing unit is going. In general, when the environment of the residence to which the outside-standing unit is directed is complex and the emergency is more, the initial K can be calculated -1 Larger to more reference empirical data. Conversely, if the residence environment to which the outside-standing unit is going is relatively stable and the emergency is relatively small, the initial K can be set 0 Larger settings are made with more references to average consumption data when performing the scheduled tasks.
It should be noted that, in the embodiment of the present application, besides the adjustment of the weight parameter by the single transformation value x, the weight parameter may be adjusted by any other possible manner, for example, by an engineer according to P 0 、J 0 、P′ -1 、J′ 0 Setting a weight parameter K for determining the current spare part demand according to the experience value -1 And K 0 。
S105: acquiring the total time length T of normal tasks in the plan of the next time period of the standing-off unit Z1 And the total number C of spare parts in all equipment with the spare parts in the next period of the outside standing unit 1 。
It should be understood that, in the embodiment of the present application, steps S101, S103 and S105 may be implemented simultaneously or separately, and there is no timing relationship between the three.
It should also be understood that the total length of the normal tasks in the next period of time can be determined based on the schedule established in advance for the outside-standing units, the type and number of equipment of the corresponding device with the spare part is determined, and the number of spare parts in each type of equipment is also determined, so that the total number of spare parts in all the equipment with the spare part can be determined.
S106: according to the P 1 、T Z1 And C 1 Determining spare part demand Q in next period plan of the outside-standing unit 1 。
It should be appreciated that P 1 According to J 0 And P -1 Average consumption per unit time of the spare part for the next time period determined is predicted, T Z1 For the total duration of normal tasks in the next period of time, C 1 The total number of spare parts in all equipment having the spare parts for the next period of time outside standing units, thus passing P 1 ×T Z1 ×C 1 The spare part demand Q in the next period plan of the outside-standing unit can be obtained 1 。
It should be noted that the requirement of the spare part at the next time period by the outside-standing unit is in addition to the planned spare part requirement Q determined as described above 1 In addition, corresponding spare parts are also required to be prepared for the unplanned tasks. Therefore, in the embodiment of the present application, the unplanned spare part demand Q of the next period of the outside-standing unit can also be obtained 2 And then synthesize Q 1 And Q 2 And obtaining the total demand Q of the outside-standing unit for the spare parts in the next period.
In the embodiment of the application, the spare part demand Q which is not planned for the next period of time of the outside-standing unit 2 The analysis and the pre-estimation determination can be carried out by engineers or personnel of relevant outside units according to the current situation.
Furthermore, in the embodiments of the present application, due to P 1 Is based on empirical data P of consumption per unit time of historical spare parts -1 Determined, and thus also based on P, in the manner shown in FIG. 2 1 To determine the next period of unplanned time of the outside standing unitSpare part demand Q 2 ：
S201: acquiring an estimated unplanned task time T according to the residence situation of the residence unit f1 。
In the embodiment of the application, an engineer or related resident unit personnel estimates the task time T of the task planned by the resident unit in the next period according to the current situation f1 And input to the system.
S202: according to P 1 、T f1 And C 1 Determining unplanned spare part demand Q for next period of the outside-standing unit 2 。
In particular, it can pass through P 1 ×T f1 ×C 1 Obtaining the unplanned spare part demand Q of the next period of the standing-off unit 2 。
S203: according to Q 1 And Q 2 And determining the spare part demand Q of the next period of the outside-standing unit.
Specifically, Q 1 And Q 2 And adding to obtain the spare part demand Q of the next period of the outside standing unit.
It should be further noted that, in practical applications, after determining the spare part demand Q of the next period of the outside-standing unit, it does not mean that the number of spare parts to be distributed to the outside-standing unit is Q, and in fact, it is possible that the outside-standing unit itself still holds a certain amount of the spare parts, so, as shown in fig. 3, in this embodiment of the present application, the system further determines the actual distribution amount for the outside-standing unit:
s301: and searching the retention of the spare parts by the outside-standing unit in the latest reported data of the outside-standing unit.
S302: subtracting the reserved quantity from the spare part demand quantity Q of the next period of the outside-standing unit to finally determine the quantity of the spare parts required to be distributed to the outside-standing unit.
It should be understood that the actual dispatch volume is the number of spare parts actually allocated to the outside-standing unit in the system, and the resource management is mainly performed according to the dispatch volume.
By the scheme provided by the embodiment of the application, for any spare part, the standing-off units are acquiredSpare part consumption R of normal task in plan during task Z0 And the total number C of spare parts in all equipment with the spare parts in the outside-standing unit 0 The average consumption J of the spare part in unit time can be obtained 0 . Further, by acquiring the empirical data P of the consumption per unit time of the spare part -1 Then based on J 0 And P -1 Determining a predicted average consumption per unit time P of the spare parts for the next period 1 . And finally, combining the total time length T of the normal tasks in the next time period plan of the standing-off unit Z1 And the total number C of the spare parts in all equipment with the spare parts in the next period of the standing-outside unit 1 The spare part demand Q in the plan of the next period of the standing-off unit can be obtained 1 . In such a way that by incorporating the spare part the average consumption per unit time J 0 And empirical data P of consumption per unit time of the spare part -1 The method and the device realize the determination of the planned spare part demand of the spare part of the outside-standing unit in the next period, thereby being beneficial to realizing reasonable allocation of spare part resources of the outside-standing unit while effectively ensuring the combat capability of the outside-standing unit. Compared with the traditional manual prediction mode, the prediction is performed by relying on the historical data of the outside-standing units, the influence of subjective factors of personnel is less, the measured and calculated result is often closer to the actual need, meanwhile, the manual investment can be reduced, and the labor cost is saved.
Embodiment two:
based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the application also provides a spare part demand determining device. Referring to fig. 4, fig. 4 illustrates a spare part demand determining apparatus 100 corresponding to the method illustrated in fig. 1. It should be understood that the specific functions of the spare part demand determining device 100 may be referred to the above description, and detailed descriptions thereof are appropriately omitted for the sake of avoiding repetition. The spare part demand determining device 100 includes at least one software functional module that can be stored in memory in the form of software or firmware or cured in the operating system of the training device 100. Specifically:
referring to fig. 4, the spare part demand determining apparatus 100 includes: an acquisition module 101 and a processing module 102. Wherein:
an acquisition module 101 for acquiring, for any spare part, a spare part consumption R of a normal task in a plan of a standing-for unit during the task Z0 And the total number C of spare parts in all equipment with the spare parts in the outside-standing unit 0 。
A processing module 102 for according to R Z0 ，C 0 Determining average consumption J per unit time of spare parts for the time of the executed task of the outside-standing unit 0 。
The acquisition module 101 is further configured to acquire empirical data P of consumption per unit time of spare parts -1 。
The processing module 102 is further configured to 0 And P -1 Determining an average consumption per unit time prediction amount P of spare parts of a next period 1 。
The obtaining module 101 is further configured to obtain a total duration T of a normal task in a next period plan of the standing-off unit Z1 And the total number C of spare parts in all equipment with the spare parts in the next period of the standing-outside unit 1 。
The processing module 102 is further configured to, according to P 1 、T Z1 And C 1 Determining spare part demand Q in next period plan of outside-standing unit 1 。
In one possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, the processing module 102 is specifically configured to perform according to formula P 1 ＝K - 1 P -1 +K 0 J 0 Determining an average consumption per unit time prediction amount P of spare parts of a next period 1 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein K is -1 And K 0 Weight parameters in the process of determining the demand of the spare parts are determined, and K is the weight parameters -1 +K 0 =1, and K -1 And K 0 All are greater than or equal to 0.
In the above possible embodiments, the obtaining module 101 is further configured to, in the processing module 102, perform the following steps according to J 0 And P -1 Determining an average consumption per unit time prediction amount P of spare parts of a next period 1 Previously, obtaining the average consumption pre-measurement P of the spare parts in the current period obtained in the last spare part demand determination process 0 And the last spare part is neededEmpirical data of consumption per unit time of spare parts P 'in determining the quantity' -1 Average consumption per unit time J 'of spare parts' 0 And a weight parameter K' -1 And K' 0 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The processing module 102 is further configured to, according to P 0 、J 0 、P′ -1 、J′ 0 Weight parameter K 'for last spare part demand determination' -1 And K' 0 Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 。
In the above possible embodiments, the processing module 102 is specifically configured to perform the following formula
Determining a transformation value x of the weight parameter; weight parameter K 'for last spare part demand determination according to transformation value x' -1 And K' 0 Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 。
In the above possible embodiments, the processing module 102 is specifically configured to perform the following formula
After determining a conversion value x of the weight parameter, judging whether the absolute value of the conversion value x is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset first threshold value c; c is a constant greater than 0; when the absolute value of x is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset first threshold value c, calculating K' -1 And the sum value of the conversion value x to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 Calculate K' 0 The difference value of the conversion value x to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process 0 。
In the above possible embodiments, the processing module 102 is specifically configured to: when the absolute value of x is larger than the absolute value of a preset first threshold value c, determining whether the absolute value of a transformation value x1 in the last spare part demand determining process is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold value c;
If the absolute value of the transformation value x1 is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold value c in the last spare part demand determining process:
when the transformation value x is greater than 0, K 'is calculated' -1 And the sum value of the preset first threshold value c to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determining process -1 Calculate K' 0 The difference value of the preset first threshold value c is used for obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determining process 0 ；
When the transformation value x is smaller than 0, K 'is calculated' -1 The difference value of the preset first threshold value c is used for obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determining process -1 Calculate K' 0 And the sum value of the preset first threshold value c to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determining process 0 。
In the above possible embodiments, the processing module 102 is specifically configured to: if the absolute value of the transformation value x1 is larger than the absolute value of the preset first threshold value c in the last spare part demand determining process: judging whether the absolute value of the transformation value x in the current spare part demand quantity determining process is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset second threshold d, wherein d is a constant larger than c;
if the absolute value of the transformation value x in the current spare part demand determination process is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of the preset second threshold d, calculating K '' -1 And the sum value of the conversion value x to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 Calculate K' 0 The difference value of the conversion value x to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process 0 ；
If the absolute value of the transformation value x in the current spare part demand determining process is larger than the absolute value of the preset second threshold d:
when the transformation value x is greater than 0, K 'is calculated' -1 And the sum value of the preset second threshold value d to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determining process -1 Calculate K' 0 And obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process by the difference value of the preset second threshold value d 0 ；
When the transformation value x is smaller than 0, K 'is calculated' -1 And obtaining the difference value between the preset second threshold value d and the preset second threshold value d to obtain the determination of the demand of the spare part at this timeWeight parameter K in procedure -1 Calculate K' 0 And the sum value of the preset second threshold value d to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determining process 0 。
In the embodiment of the present application, the obtaining module 101 is further configured to obtain an estimated unplanned task time T according to a residence situation of a residence unit f1 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The processing module 102 is further configured to, according to P 1 、T Z1 And C 1 Determining spare part demand Q in next period plan of outside-standing unit 1 Thereafter, according to P 1 、T f1 And C 1 Determining unplanned spare part demand Q for next period of standing-off unit 2 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the According to Q 1 And Q 2 And determining the spare part demand Q of the next period of the outside-standing unit.
It should be understood that, for simplicity of description, the descriptions in the first embodiment are omitted in this embodiment.
Embodiment III:
this embodiment provides an electronic device, see fig. 5, comprising a processor 501, a memory 502 and a communication bus 503. Wherein:
a communication bus 503 is used to enable connected communication between the processor 501 and the memory 502.
The processor 501 is configured to execute one or more programs stored in the memory 502 to implement the spare part demand determining method in the first embodiment described above.
It will be appreciated that the configuration shown in fig. 5 is merely illustrative, and that the electronic device may also include more or fewer components than shown in fig. 5, or may have a different configuration than shown in fig. 5, such as may also have data interfaces, display screens, etc.
The present embodiment also provides a readable storage medium such as a floppy disk, an optical disk, a hard disk, a flash memory, a usb disk, an SD (Secure Digital Memory Card, secure digital Card) Card, an MMC (Multimedia Card) Card, or the like, in which one or more programs implementing the above-described steps are stored, and which can be executed by one or more processors to implement the spare part demand determining method in the above-described embodiment. And will not be described in detail herein.
In the embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus and method may be implemented in other manners. The above-described apparatus embodiments are merely illustrative, for example, the division of the units is merely a logical function division, and there may be other manners of division in actual implementation, and for example, multiple units or components may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not performed. Alternatively, the coupling or direct coupling or communication connection shown or discussed with each other may be through some communication interface, device or unit indirect coupling or communication connection, which may be in electrical, mechanical or other form.
Further, the units described as separate units may or may not be physically separate, and units displayed as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed over a plurality of network units. Some or all of the units may be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment.
Furthermore, functional modules in various embodiments of the present application may be integrated together to form a single portion, or each module may exist alone, or two or more modules may be integrated to form a single portion.
In this document, relational terms such as first and second, and the like may be used solely to distinguish one entity or action from another entity or action without necessarily requiring or implying any actual such relationship or order between such entities or actions.
Herein, a plurality refers to two or more.
The foregoing is merely exemplary embodiments of the present application and is not intended to limit the scope of the present application, and various modifications and variations may be suggested to one skilled in the art. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present application should be included in the protection scope of the present application.
Claims (8)
1. A spare part demand determination method, characterized by comprising:
for any spare part, acquiring spare part consumption R of a standing-by unit in a planned normal task during the task Z0 And the total number C of spare parts in all equipment with the spare parts in the outside-standing unit 0 ；
According to said R z0 The C is 0 Determining the average consumption J of the spare parts in unit time according to the executed task time of the standing-by unit 0 ；
Obtaining empirical data P of consumption per unit time of said spare parts -1 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The P is -1 Historical average consumption per unit time for the spare part;
according to the J 0 And P -1 Determining a predicted average consumption per unit time P of the spare parts for the next period 1 ；
Acquiring a total time length T of a normal task in a next time period plan of the standing-off unit Z1 And the total number C of spare parts in all equipment with the spare parts in the next period of the standing-outside unit 1 ；
According to the P 1 、T Z1 And C 1 Determining spare part demand Q in next period plan of the outside-standing unit 1 ；
According to the J 0 And P -1 Determining a predicted average consumption per unit time P of the spare parts for the next period 1 Comprising:
according to formula P 1 ＝K -1 P -1 +K 0 J 0 Determining a predicted average consumption per unit time P of the spare parts for the next period 1 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein K is -1 And K 0 Weight parameters in the process of determining the demand of the spare parts are determined, and K is the weight parameters -1 +K 0 =1, and said K -1 And K 0 All are more than or equal to 0;
according to the J 0 And P -1 Determining the unit time level of the spare part in the next periodPredicted amount of all consumption P 1 Previously, the method further comprises:
obtaining average consumption predicted value P of spare parts in unit time in current period obtained in last spare part demand determination process 0 And empirical data p 'of the consumption per unit time of the spare part at the time of the last determination of the demand of the spare part' -1 Average consumption per unit time J 'of said spare parts' 0 And a weight parameter K' -1 And K' 0 ；
According to the formula
Determining a transformation value x of the weight parameter;
weight parameter K 'for last spare part demand determination according to the transformation value x' -1 And K' 0 Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 。
2. The spare part demand determining method according to claim 1, wherein, in accordance with the formula
After determining the transformed value x of the weight parameter, the method further comprises:
judging whether the absolute value of the transformation value x is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset first threshold value c; the c is a constant greater than 0;
correspondingly, according to the transformation value x, the weight parameter K 'when the spare part demand is determined last time' -1 And K' 0 Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 Comprising:
when the absolute value of x is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset first threshold value c, calculating the K' -1 And obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process from the sum value of the transformation value x -1 Calculating the K' 0 And the difference value of the transformation value x to obtain the requirement of the spare part Weight parameter K in the quantity determination process 0 。
3. The spare part demand determining method according to claim 2, wherein the weight parameter K 'for the last spare part demand determination is based on the conversion value x' -1 And K' 0 Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 Further comprising:
when the absolute value of x is larger than the absolute value of a preset first threshold value c, determining whether the absolute value of a transformation value x1 in the last spare part demand determining process is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold value c or not:
if the absolute value of the transformation value x1 is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold value c in the last spare part demand determining process:
calculating the K 'when the transformation value x is greater than 0' -1 And obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process from the sum value of the preset first threshold value c -1 Calculating the K' 0 And the difference value of the preset first threshold value c is used for obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determining process 0 ；
Calculating the K 'when the transformation value x is less than 0' -1 And the difference value of the preset first threshold value c is used for obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determining process -1 Calculating the K' 0 And obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process from the sum value of the preset first threshold value c 0 。
4. The spare part demand determining method according to claim 3, wherein the weight parameter K 'for the last spare part demand determination is based on the conversion value x' -1 And K' 0 Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 Further comprising:
if the absolute value of the transformation value x1 is larger than the absolute value of the preset first threshold value c in the last spare part demand determining process:
judging whether the absolute value of the transformation value x in the current spare part demand determining process is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset second threshold d, wherein d is a constant larger than c;
if the absolute value of the transformation value x in the current spare part demand determining process is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset second threshold d, calculating the K '' -1 And obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process from the sum value of the transformation value x -1 Calculating the K' 0 And the difference value of the conversion value x to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process 0 ；
If the absolute value of the transformation value x in the current spare part demand determining process is larger than the absolute value of a preset second threshold d:
Calculating the K 'when the transformation value x is greater than 0' -1 And obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process from the sum value of the preset second threshold value d -1 Calculating the K' 0 And obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process from the difference value of the preset second threshold value d 0 ；
Calculating the K 'when the transformation value x is less than 0' -1 And obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process from the difference value of the preset second threshold value d -1 Calculating the K' 0 And obtaining a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process from the sum value of the preset second threshold value d 0 。
5. The spare part demand determination method according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that, according to the P 1 、T Z1 And C 1 Determining spare part demand Q in next period plan of the outside-standing unit 1 Thereafter, the method further comprises:
acquiring an estimated unscheduled task time T according to the residence situation of the residence unit f1 ；
According to the P 1 、T f1 And C 1 Determining an unplanned spare part demand Q for a next period of the outside-standing unit 2 ；
According to said Q 1 And Q 2 And determining the spare part demand Q of the next period of the outside-standing unit.
6. A spare part demand determining device, characterized by comprising: the device comprises an acquisition module and a processing module;
The acquisition module is used for acquiring the spare part consumption R of the normal task in the plan of the standing-for unit during the task for any spare part Z0 And the total number C of spare parts in all equipment with the spare parts in the outside-standing unit 0 ；
The processing module is used for processing the R Z0 The C is 0 Determining the average consumption J of the spare parts in unit time according to the executed task time of the standing-by unit 0 ；
The acquisition module is also used for acquiring the empirical data P of the consumption of the spare parts in unit time -1 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the The P is -1 Historical average consumption per unit time for the spare part;
the processing module is also used for processing the data according to the J 0 And P -1 Determining a predicted average consumption per unit time P of the spare parts for the next period 1 ；
The obtaining module is further configured to obtain a total duration T of a normal task in a next period plan of the outside-standing unit Z1 And the total number C of spare parts in all equipment with the spare parts in the next period of the standing-outside unit 1 ；
The processing module is further configured to, according to the P 1 、T Z1 And C 1 Determining spare part demand Q in next period plan of the outside-standing unit 1 ；
The processing module is specifically configured to, according to formula P 1 ＝K -1 P -1 +K 0 J 0 Determining an average consumption per unit time prediction amount P of spare parts of a next period 1 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein K is -1 And K 0 Weight parameters in the process of determining the demand of the spare parts are determined, and K is the weight parameters -1 +K 0 =1, and K -1 And K 0 All are more than or equal to 0;
the acquisition module is also used for processing the data according to J at the processing module 0 And P -1 Determining an average consumption per unit time prediction amount P of spare parts of a next period 1 Previously, obtaining the average consumption pre-measurement P of the spare parts in the current period obtained in the last spare part demand determination process 0 And empirical data p 'of consumption per unit time of spare parts at the time of the last determination of the demand of spare parts' -1 Average consumption per unit time J 'of spare parts' 0 And a weight parameter K' -1 And K' 0 ；
The processing module is specifically configured to perform a processing according to a formula
Determining a transformation value x of the weight parameter; weight parameter K 'for last spare part demand determination according to transformation value x' -1 And K' 0 Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the current spare part demand determination process -1 And K 0 。
7. An electronic device, comprising: a processor, a memory, and a communication bus;
the communication bus is used for realizing connection communication between the processor and the memory;
the processor is configured to execute one or more programs stored in a memory to implement the spare part demand determining method according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
8. A readable storage medium storing one or more programs executable by one or more processors to implement the spare part demand determination method of any one of claims 1-5.
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