CN111461559A - Spare part demand determining method and device and electronic equipment - Google Patents

Spare part demand determining method and device and electronic equipment Download PDF

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CN111461559A
CN111461559A CN202010262659.XA CN202010262659A CN111461559A CN 111461559 A CN111461559 A CN 111461559A CN 202010262659 A CN202010262659 A CN 202010262659A CN 111461559 A CN111461559 A CN 111461559A
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spare part
determining
spare
weight parameter
value
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CN111461559B (en
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荆彬
徐瑞
黄雨农
乔林
李成吉
韩磊
郭亚子
吕振强
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Army Service Academy of PLA
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    • G06Q10/0631—Resource planning, allocation, distributing or scheduling for enterprises or organisations
    • G06Q10/06315—Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
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    • Y02P—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION OR PROCESSING OF GOODS
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Abstract

The application provides a spare part demand determining method, a spare part demand determining device and electronic equipment, aiming at any spare part, the average consumption J of the spare part in unit time can be obtained by acquiring the consumption of the spare part of a normal task of a unit outside a residence in a task period and the total number of the spare part in all equipment with the spare part0. Furthermore, by acquiring the empirical data P of the consumption of the spare part per unit time‑1Then based on J0And P‑1And determining the average consumption prediction amount of the spare parts in the next time period. And finally, combining the total normal task time of the next time period of the exterior unit and the total number of the spare parts in all the equipment with the spare parts in the next time period of the exterior unit, so as to obtain the spare part demand in the plan of the next time period of the exterior unit. Therefore, the demand quantity of the spare parts in the plan of the spare part for the unit outside the station in the next time period is determined, and the combat capability of the unit outside the station is effectively ensured and the station is favorably ensuredAnd reasonably allocating spare part resources of external units.

Description

Spare part demand determining method and device and electronic equipment
Technical Field
The application relates to the field of data automation processing, in particular to a method and a device for determining spare part demand and electronic equipment.
Background
The unit of staying outside is a unit which is mainly active abroad and completes corresponding tasks abroad, such as a unit of staying outside engineering team and the like. Since the residential unit is mainly active abroad and the equipment is supported in the main countries, the reliability management of the equipment of the residential unit becomes an important part for ensuring the fighting capability (i.e. the task execution capability and completion capability of the residential unit) of the residential unit.
The demand prediction of equipment spare parts of a residential unit is an important ring for carrying out reliability management on the equipment of the residential unit. Generally, the equipment quantity and variety of the outside unit are clearly specified in the relevant plan made before the outside unit is sent out or every year, but the equipment is lost in the using process, so that the maintenance is needed. In order to effectively ensure the fighting capacity of the outside units and reasonably allocate resources, the equipment needs to be accurately predicted for spare parts used for equipment maintenance. At present, demand forecast for equipment spare parts is usually manually forecast, that is, the demand of each equipment spare part is set manually according to experience, and the spare parts with corresponding demand are distributed to an outside unit. However, the demand measured in this way is affected by subjective factors of the operator, and often has a large deviation from the actual demand and a low accuracy.
Disclosure of Invention
An object of the embodiments of the present application is to provide a method and an apparatus for determining a required quantity of a spare part, and an electronic device, so as to solve the problems of a large deviation between a measurement result and an actual required quantity and a low accuracy rate in a manual prediction manner, and to determine a required quantity of a spare part required by a unit outside a residence.
The embodiment of the application provides a method for determining the demand of spare parts, which comprises the following steps: aiming at any spare part, acquiring the spare part consumption R of a normal task in plan during the task of a parking unitZ0And the total number C of the spare parts in all the equipment with the spare parts in the out-of-residence unit0(ii) a According to the formula RZ0Said C is0And the executed task time of the out-of-residence unit determines the average consumption J of the spare part per unit time0(ii) a Obtaining empirical data P of consumption per unit time of said spare part-1(ii) a According to said J0And P-1Determining the average consumption prediction quantity P of the spare part in the next time period1(ii) a Acquiring the total normal task time T in the next time period plan of the outside unitZ1And the total number C of the spare parts in all the equipment with the spare parts in the next period of the outside unit1(ii) a According to said P1、TZ1And C1Determining the demand Q of spare parts in the next time period plan of the outside unit1。
In the implementation process, for any spare part, the spare part consumption R of the normal task in the plan is obtained by acquiring the spare part consumption R of the outside unit during the taskZ0And the total number C of said spare parts in all equipment with said spare parts in a unit outside the premises0The average consumption J of the spare part per unit time can be obtained0. Furthermore, by obtaining empirical data P of consumption per unit time of the spare part-1Then based on J0And P-1Determining the average consumption prediction quantity P of the spare part in the next time period1. And finally, combining the total time length T of the normal tasks in the next time period plan of the outside unitZ1And the total number C of the spare parts in all the equipment with the spare parts in the next period of the outside unit1The required quantity Q of the spare parts in the plan of the next time period of the outside unit can be obtained1. In this way, by combining the average consumption J per unit time of the spare part0And empirical data P of the consumption per unit time of the spare part-1The method realizes the determination of the spare part demand of the outside unit in the next period of time in the plan of the spare part, thereby being beneficial to realizing the reasonable allocation of the spare part resources of the outside unit while effectively ensuring the fighting capacity of the outside unit. Compared with the traditional manual prediction mode, the prediction is carried out by depending on the historical data of the outside unit, the influence of subjective factors of personnel is less, the result obtained by measurement and calculation is often closer to the actual requirement, meanwhile, the manual investment can be reduced, and the labor cost is saved.
Further, according to said J0And P-1Determining the average consumption prediction quantity P of the spare part in the next time period1The method comprises the following steps: according to formula P1＝K-1P-1+K0J0Determining the average consumption prediction quantity P of the spare part in the next time period1(ii) a Wherein K-1And K0Determining a weight parameter for the spare part requirement, and K-1+K01, and said K-1And K0Are all greater than or equal to 0.
In the implementation process, P is constructed1＝K-1P-1+K0J0This operation model, and set K-1+K01, thereby passing the weight parameter K-1And K0The average consumption J of the spare parts per unit time0And empirical data P of the consumption per unit time of the spare part-1Organically combined, by comprehensive evaluation J0And P-1Both indicators enable a reliable prediction of the average consumption per unit time of the spare part on a single installation in the next period.
Further, in the formula of J0And P-1Determining the average consumption prediction quantity P of the spare part in the next time period1Previously, the method further comprises: obtaining the unit time average consumption prediction quantity P of the spare parts in the current time period obtained in the last spare part demand quantity determination process0And empirical data P 'of consumption per unit time of the spare parts when the spare part demand was last determined'-1Unit time of the spare partAverage consumption of J'0And a weight parameter K'-1And K'0(ii) a According to said P0、J0、P′-1、J′0Weight parameter K 'for last determination of spare part demand'-1And K'0Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part-1And K0。
In the above implementation, P is used0、J0、P′-1、J′0Four parameters are used for determining weight parameter K 'when spare part demand quantity is determined last time'-1And K'0Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part-1And K0So that the weight parameter K for the determination of the demand amount each time-1And K0The method can be adaptively changed, thereby improving the prediction accuracy.
Further, said is according to said P0、J0、P′-1、J′0Weight parameter K 'for last determination of spare part demand'-1And K'0Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part-1And K0The method comprises the following steps: according to the formula
Figure BDA0002438290590000031
Determining a transformation value x of the weight parameter; according to the conversion value x, determining a weight parameter K 'when the requirement of the spare part is determined last time'-1And K'0Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part-1And K0。
It should be understood that since the predictive model is P1＝K-1P-1+K0J0Then, when the spare part demand is determined last time, the unit time average consumption prediction quantity P of the spare part in the current time period obtained in the last spare part demand determination process0Namely, the existence of: p0＝K′-1P′-1+K′0J′0(ii) a With weighting parametersThe value x, i.e. K, being transformed-1＝K′-1+ x, and K-1+K01, therefore, has K0＝K′0X, the average consumption per unit time of the spare part actually measured on a single piece of equipment during the preceding period is J0Thus, in theory, J is expected to be completely accurate if the prediction is completely accurate0＝P0＝K′-1P′-1+K′0J′0Since there may be deviation, the weight parameter needs to be adjusted so that K can be enabled by the adjusted weight parameter-1P′-+ KJ′0＝J0Then based on K-1P′-1+K0J′0＝J0，P0＝K′-1P′-1+K′0J′0，K-1＝K′-1+x，K0＝K′0-x can be derived
Figure BDA0002438290590000041
Thus according to the formula
Figure BDA0002438290590000042
The transformation value x of the weight parameter is determined, so that the transformation value can better meet the prediction transformation rule, and the prediction accuracy is improved.
Further, according to the formula
Figure BDA0002438290590000043
After determining the transform value x of the weight parameter, the method further comprises: judging whether the absolute value of the transformation value x is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset first threshold value c; c is a constant greater than 0; correspondingly, the weight parameter K 'of the last time when the spare part demand is determined according to the conversion value x'-1And K'0Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part-1And K0The method comprises the following steps: calculating K 'when the absolute value of x is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset first threshold value c'-1The sum of the conversion value x and the obtained quantity of the spare part requirement is determinedWeight parameter K in the equation-1Calculating the K'0The difference value of the weight parameter K and the conversion value x is obtained to obtain the weight parameter K in the process of determining the requirement of the spare part0。
In practical applications, due to the influence of factors such as international environment, data in a certain spare part demand determination period may be abnormal (for example, the average consumption J per unit time obtained by actually measuring and calculating the spare part)0Suddenly become much larger or much smaller). In the embodiment of the present application, in order to make the measurement result more suitable for most cases, it is necessary to reduce the influence of the abrupt change of the transform value x caused by these special cases. In the implementation process, a preset first threshold c may be preset, and when the absolute value of x is less than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, the first threshold c is determined according to K-1＝K′-1+x，K0＝K′0-x adjusting the weight parameter.
Furthermore, a weight parameter K 'is determined according to the conversion value x when the spare part demand is determined at the last time'-1And K'0Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part-1And K0The method also comprises the following steps: when the absolute value of x is greater than the absolute value of a preset first threshold value c, determining whether the absolute value of a conversion value x1 is less than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold value c in the last process of determining the required quantity of the spare part; if the absolute value of the transformation value x1 is less than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold c in the last process of determining the required quantity of the spare part: when the conversion value x is greater than 0, calculating the K'-1Obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the demand of the spare part according to the sum of the preset first threshold value c-1Calculating the K'0Obtaining a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part by the difference value of the preset first threshold value c0(ii) a When the conversion value x is less than 0, calculating the K'-1Obtaining a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part by the difference value of the preset first threshold value c-1Calculating the K'0Obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the demand of the spare part according to the sum of the preset first threshold value c0。
In the implementation process, when the absolute value of x is greater than the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, it may be further determined whether the absolute value of the transformation value x1 in the previous determination process of the required quantity of the spare part is also greater than the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, and when the absolute value of the transformation value x1 in the previous determination process of the required quantity of the spare part is less than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, it indicates that there is a sudden change of the data quantity caused by a special condition in the current determination process of the required quantity of the spare part, so that the adjustment of the weight parameter may be performed according to the preset first threshold c, specifically, when the obtained x is greater than 0, according to K-1＝K′-1+c，K0＝K′0C obtaining a weight parameter K in the process of determining the spare part demand-1And K0When x obtained in the preceding text is less than or equal to 0, according to K-1＝K′-1-c，K0＝K′0+ c obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the spare part demand-1And K0。
Furthermore, a weight parameter K 'is determined according to the conversion value x when the spare part demand is determined at the last time'-1And K'0Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part-1And K0The method also comprises the following steps: if the absolute value of the transformation value x1 is greater than the absolute value of the preset first threshold c in the last process of determining the required quantity of the spare part: judging whether the absolute value of the transformation value x is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset second threshold value d in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part, wherein d is a constant larger than c; if the absolute value of the transformation value x is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset second threshold value d in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part, calculating K'-1And the sum of the conversion value x is used for obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the requirement of the spare part-1Calculating the K'0The difference value of the weight parameter K and the conversion value x is obtained to obtain the weight parameter K in the process of determining the requirement of the spare part0(ii) a If the absolute value of the transformation value x is greater than the absolute value of a preset second threshold d in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part: when the transform value x is greater than 0, calculatingK'-1And the sum of the preset second threshold d is used for obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the demand of the spare part-1Calculating the K'0Obtaining a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part by the difference value of the preset second threshold value d0(ii) a When the conversion value x is less than 0, calculating the K'-1Obtaining a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part by the difference value of the preset second threshold value d-1Calculating the K'0And the sum of the preset second threshold d is used for obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the demand of the spare part0。
In the implementation process, when the absolute value of x is greater than the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, and the absolute value of the transformation value x1 in the last process of determining the required quantity of the spare part is also greater than the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, it is determined that the large transformation value is normal, so that it can be further determined whether the absolute value of the transformation value x in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part is less than or equal to the absolute value of the preset second threshold d, and when the absolute value of the transformation value x is less than or equal to the absolute value of the preset second threshold d, the absolute value of the transformation value x in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part can be determined according to-1＝K′-1+x，K0＝K′0X obtaining a weight parameter K in the process of determining the spare part demand-1And K0(ii) a If the absolute value of the conversion value x in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part is larger than the absolute value of a preset second threshold d, a control mechanism is triggered, and when the obtained x is larger than 0, according to K-1＝K′-1+d，K0＝K′0D obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the spare part demand-1And K0When x obtained in the preceding text is less than or equal to 0, according to K-1＝K′-1-d，K0＝K′0+ d obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the spare part demand-1And K0Therefore, the data are prevented from being abnormally too large, and the preset accuracy is improved.
Further, according to said P1、TZ1And C1Determining the demand Q of spare parts in the next time period plan of the outside unit1After thatThe method also comprises the following steps: acquiring the estimated planned task time T according to the stationing situation of the outside unitf1(ii) a According to said P1、Tf1And C1Determining the demand Q of the unplanned spare parts in the next period of the outside unit2(ii) a According to said Q1And Q2And determining the required quantity Q of the spare parts in the next time period of the exterior unit.
In practical applications, the out-of-home unit may need to complete some unplanned tasks due to some emergency. In the implementation process, the unplanned task time is considered, and then the unplanned spare part demand of the next time period of the outside unit is determined, so that the prediction result is more reliable.
The embodiment of the present application further provides a device for determining a required amount of a spare part, including: the device comprises an acquisition module and a processing module; the acquisition module is used for acquiring the spare part consumption R of a normal task in plan during the task period of an outside unit aiming at any spare partZ0And the total number C of the spare parts in all the equipment with the spare parts in the out-of-residence unit0(ii) a The processing module is used for processing the RZ0Said C is0And the executed task time of the out-of-residence unit determines the average consumption J of the spare part per unit time0(ii) a The acquisition module is further used for acquiring empirical data P of unit time consumption of the spare part-1(ii) a The processing module is also used for processing the data according to the J0And P-1Determining the average consumption prediction quantity P of the spare part in the next time period1(ii) a The acquisition module is further used for acquiring the total normal task time T in the next time period plan of the outside unitZ1And the total number C of the spare parts in all the equipment with the spare parts in the next period of the outside unit1(ii) a The processing module is further used for processing the data according to the P1、TZ1And C1Determining the demand Q of spare parts in the next time period plan of the outside unit1。
The implementation process realizes the determination of the demand quantity of the spare parts required by the outside unit, thereby being beneficial to realizing the reasonable allocation of the spare part resources of the outside unit while effectively ensuring the fighting capacity of the outside unit. Compared with the traditional manual prediction mode, the prediction is carried out by depending on the historical data of the outside unit, the influence of subjective factors of personnel is less, the result obtained by measurement and calculation is often closer to the actual requirement, meanwhile, the manual investment can be reduced, and the labor cost is saved.
An embodiment of the present application further provides an electronic device, including: a processor, a memory, and a communication bus; the communication bus is used for realizing connection communication between the processor and the memory; the processor is configured to execute one or more programs stored in the memory to implement any of the above-described spare part demand determination methods.
The embodiment of the present application further provides a readable storage medium, where one or more programs are stored, and the one or more programs are executable by one or more processors to implement any one of the above methods for determining a demand for spare parts.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application, the drawings that are required to be used in the embodiments of the present application will be briefly described below, it should be understood that the following drawings only illustrate some embodiments of the present application and therefore should not be considered as limiting the scope, and that those skilled in the art can also obtain other related drawings based on the drawings without inventive efforts.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flowchart of a method for determining a required quantity of a spare part according to an embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a process for determining an unplanned spare part demand for a next time period in a remote unit according to an embodiment of the present disclosure;
FIG. 3 is a schematic flow chart illustrating a spare part distribution amount according to an embodiment of the present disclosure;
fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of a device for determining a required quantity of a spare part according to an embodiment of the present application;
fig. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application.
The first embodiment is as follows:
an embodiment of the present application provides a method for determining a required quantity of a spare part, please refer to fig. 1, which includes:
s101: aiming at any spare part, acquiring the spare part consumption R of a normal task in plan during the task of a parking unitZ0And the total number C of the spare parts in all the equipment with the spare parts in the outside unit0。
It should be noted that the unit outside the residence described in the embodiment of the present application refers to a unit that is owned by a domestic organization and is sent to a place outside the country to perform a certain task or tasks, such as a project team sent to the country outside the country.
It should be noted that, before the parking unit is dispatched or at regular intervals (for example, every year), a schedule book is usually made for the parking unit, which tasks are planned to be executed by the parking unit in the next period, which equipment is carried, what quantity of each equipment is, etc. are made in the schedule book.
It should be noted that the tasks executed by the exterior unit during the task period can be divided into two types, one type is a normal task in the plan that the exterior unit needs to complete as determined in the pre-made plan book, and the other type is a task executed by the exterior unit during the task period due to the occurrence of an emergency (i.e. an unplanned task). For the normal tasks in the plan, due to the fact that the normal tasks are planned, the task time and the task quantity can be determined according to the planned book made in advance, and therefore the spare part demand quantity of the normal tasks in the plan of the next time period can be accurately predicted based on the existing data.
It should be noted that, during the task, the residential unit may report data to the domestic management center periodically or aperiodically, where the reported data includes, but is not limited to, spare part consumption. According to the method and the device, the data reported by the residential unit are processed by relying on the data reported by the residential unit, so that the reliability measurement and calculation of the demand quantity of the spare parts in the next time period of the residential unit are realized.
In a possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, the consumption of the spare part in the data of different periods without duplication may be summed according to the data reported by the premise unit, and the actual consumption R from the time when the premise unit dispatches the execution task to the latest data reporting time may be obtainedr0Meanwhile, the time t consumed by executing normal tasks in the plan in the data reported from the time when the execution task is dispatched from the outside unit to the time when the data is reported for the latest time is countedZAnd the time t consumed by executing the unplanned taskfAnd further determining and acquiring the spare part consumption R of the normal task in plan during the task of the outside unit according to the execution timeZ0I.e. with RZ0＝(tZ/(tZ+tf))×Rr0。
In another possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, the tasks executed by the exterior unit in the data of different periods without repetition may be identified according to the data reported by the exterior unit (one possible identification manner is to compare the tasks executed by the exterior unit with a plan book pre-made by the exterior unit), the data corresponding to the normal tasks in the execution plan are determined, and then the consumption of the spare parts of the normal tasks each time is extracted from the data and accumulated, so that the spare part consumption R of the normal tasks in the plan of the exterior unit during the tasks is obtainedZ0。
It should be further noted that, in the embodiment of the present application, a process for determining a required amount of a spare part is described for one kind of spare part, and under an actual application environment, the required amounts of a plurality of kinds of spare parts in a next time period often need to be predicted, so that under the actual application environment, different spare parts need to be determined according to the process described in the embodiment of the present application.
S102: according to the RZ0C of the0And the executed task time t of the outside unit determines the average consumption J of the spare part per unit time0。
It is to be understood that RZ0Spare part consumption for the unit during the mission for normal mission within the plan, and C0T is the total number of the spare parts in all the equipment with the spare parts in the out-of-home unit, and t is the time of the executed tasks of the out-of-home unit (i.e. the total time of all the tasks executed since the task was dispatched from the out-of-home unit until the latest data reporting period), so that the R is passedZ0/(C0× t) to determine the average consumption J of the spare parts per unit time0。
S103: obtaining empirical data P of unit time consumption of the spare part-1。
In the embodiment of the present application, the empirical data P of the consumption per unit time of the spare parts-1May be the historical average consumption per unit time of the spare part. For example, the actual consumption R 'of the spare parts from the task of the outsourced execution of the outside unit to the last time of the spare part demand determination may be obtained when the spare part demand determination was made at the last time'r0And the total time T of executing the task from the time when the executing task is dispatched from the outside unit to the time when the spare part demand is determined last time, further R'r0The T is used as P in the process of determining the demand of the spare part-1。
It should be noted that, when the parking unit is first dispatched to a place to perform a task, since the parking unit does not report data, the first demand of the parking unit for the spare part may be determined by referring to the demand of other parking units for the spare part, which is similar to the situation of the parking place to which the parking unit is going.
It should be noted that, after the residential unit arrives at the dispatch location and reports the data, when the demand of the spare part is determined according to the data reported by the residential unit for the first time, the average consumption per unit time of the spare part corresponding to the residential unit referred to before the residential unit goes to the dispatch location can be used as the empirical data P of the consumption per unit time of the spare part-1To ensure that the prediction can be made properly. At each subsequent timeIn the process of determining the spare part demand, the spare part demand is determined according to the data of the parking place unit referenced before the parking place unit goes to the dispatching place.
S104: according to the J0And P-1Determining the average consumption prediction quantity P of the spare part in the next time interval1。
In the embodiment of the present application, a measurement model is provided, and an arithmetic expression of the measurement model is as follows: p1＝K-1P-1+K0J0In which K is-1And K0Determining a weight parameter for the spare part requirement, and K-1+K01, and K-1And K0Are all greater than or equal to 0.
It should be understood that, in order to improve the accuracy of the measurement and calculation of the model, the accuracy of the weight parameters used in each measurement and calculation is important. In order to make the result obtained in each measurement closer to the average consumption per unit time of the spare part actually on a single device in the next period, the predicted average consumption per unit time predicted by the spare part in the last time of the requirement determination of the spare part in the embodiment of the present application may be obtained0And the average consumption J of the spare parts per unit time obtained by actual calculation of the data0The weight parameters are dynamically adjusted.
In the embodiment of the application, a transformation value x of the weight parameter can be set, and K is set-1＝K′-1+ x, and K0＝K′0-x, wherein K'-1And K'0And the weight parameter is used for determining the spare part demand last time. Then, when the spare part demand is determined last time, there are:
P0＝K′-1P′-1+K′0J′0(1)
in the above formula (1), P0P 'for the average consumption prediction per unit time of the spare part measured at the current time period from the last determination of the demand of the spare part'-1That is, empirical data, J ', of the consumption per unit time of the spare part at the time of last spare part demand determination'0Is the last oneThe average consumption per unit time of the spare part at the time of the spare part demand determination.
When the demand of the spare part is determined at this time, the average consumption of the spare part in unit time is J0At the time of full accuracy J0＝P0That is, the weight parameter does not need to be adjusted, and if there is a deviation, the weight parameter needs to be adjusted to obtain the current available weight parameter, so there are:
J0＝K-1P′-1+K0J′0＝(K′-1+x)P′-1+(K′0-x)J′0(2)
the equation (2) and the equation (1) are subtracted to carry out transformation, and the method can obtain
Figure BDA0002438290590000121
According to
Figure BDA0002438290590000122
Can also be proved, when the requirement of the spare part is determined at the last time, if the measurement and calculation are completely accurate, J is carried out0＝P0If x is 0, then correspondingly if J0And P0The larger the deviation (f), the larger the adjustment amount (i.e., the absolute value of the transform value x) is.
Based on the above analysis, it can be seen that in the present embodiment, the method can be performed according to J0And P-1Determining the average consumption prediction quantity P of spare parts in the next time interval1Previously, the unit time average consumption prediction quantity P of the spare part in the current time period obtained in the last spare part demand quantity determination process is obtained0And empirical data P 'of consumption per unit time of the spare parts when the spare part demand was determined last time'-1And the average consumption J 'per unit time of the spare parts'0And a weight parameter K'-1And K'0Further according to the formula
Figure BDA0002438290590000123
The transform value x of the weight parameter is determined.
It should be noted that, in the process of determining the equipment requirement of the residential unit, one year can be taken as a stage, and the quantity of spare parts required by the residential unit in the next year can be measured and calculated each time. In real life, normal tasks in the outside unit plan are usually accurate to the month, so the unit time in the embodiment of the application can be in the unit of the month.
It should be noted that, in practical applications, the demand of a spare part may be particularly large or small within a certain period of time under special conditions due to the influence of special factors such as international environment (which may result in the average consumption J per unit time actually measured by the spare part)0Suddenly becoming larger or smaller, resulting in a sudden change in the transform value x). In order to reduce the influence of sudden change of the conversion value x caused by the special conditions, a preset first threshold value c (c is greater than 0) can be preset, and the weight parameter K 'can be used when the requirement quantity of the spare part is determined according to x at the last time'-1And K'0Before the adjustment, it is determined whether the absolute value of the transformed value x is less than or equal to the absolute value of a preset first threshold c.
When the absolute value of x is less than or equal to the absolute value of a preset first threshold value c, according to K-1＝K′-1+x，K0＝K′0-x adjusting the weight parameter.
When the absolute value of x is greater than the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, in this case, in a possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, the transformed value x1 in the last process of determining the spare part demand may be obtained, and it is further determined whether x exceeds the threshold c for a plurality of consecutive times by determining whether the absolute value of x1 is less than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold c.
If the absolute value of x1 is less than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, it can be considered that this is only a single special case, and it can be adjusted according to the threshold c. In particular, when x is greater than 0, according to K-1＝K′-1+c，K0＝K′0C obtaining a weight parameter K in the process of determining the spare part demand-1And K0And when x is less than or equal to 0, according to K-1＝K′-1-c，K0＝K′0+ c obtaining the spare part requirementWeight parameter K in a quantity determination process-1And K0。
Correspondingly, if the absolute value of x1 is greater than the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, it can be considered that the situation is not a special situation, and the weight parameter K 'of the last time when the spare part demand is determined can be determined according to the change value exceeding the threshold c'-1And K'0And (6) adjusting.
In this case, one possibility is to rely directly on K-1＝K′-1+x，K0＝K′0X obtaining a weight parameter K in the process of determining the spare part demand-1And K0。
However, in order to prevent the situation that the prediction is obviously deviated from the actual situation due to the transformed value x obviously not conforming to the conventional changing situation, in another feasible manner of the embodiment of the present application, a second threshold value d (d is greater than c) may be preset, and then it may be determined whether the absolute value of the transformed value x in the process of determining the spare part demand is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of the preset second threshold value d.
If the absolute value of the transformation value x in the process of determining the spare part demand is less than or equal to the absolute value of the preset second threshold d, the transformation value x can be determined according to K-1＝K′-1+x，K0＝K′0X obtaining a weight parameter K in the process of determining the spare part demand-1And K0。
If the absolute value of the transformation value x is larger than the absolute value of the preset second threshold d in the process of determining the demand quantity of the spare part, when the transformation value x is larger than 0, according to K-1＝K′-1+d，K0＝K′0D obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the spare part demand-1And K0And when the transformation value x is less than 0, according to K-1＝K′-1-d，K0＝K′0+ d obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the spare part demand-1And K0Therefore, the data are prevented from being abnormally too large, and the preset accuracy is improved.
It should be understood that, in the embodiment of the present application, in the process of determining the demand of the spare part twice continuously, the absolute values of the transformed values are both greater than the absolute value of the preset first threshold c, and then the preset second threshold d may be used as a new preset first threshold in the next prediction, and the original preset first threshold c is removed, and then a new second threshold is added.
In a possible implementation manner of the embodiment of the present application, the preset second threshold may be twice the preset first threshold, that is, d may be 2 times c.
It should be understood that, for the weight parameter when the demand of the spare part is determined for the first time, the demand variation of the spare part can be set by an engineer according to the actual situation of the dispatch premises of the outside unit and referring to other outside units of which the dispatch premises is similar to the situation of the dispatch premises to which the outside unit is going. Generally, when the parking place environment to which the outside unit is going is complex and there are many emergency situations, the initial K may be set-1The larger the setting, the more reference to empirical data. On the contrary, if the parking place environment to which the outside unit is going is stable and there are few emergency situations, the initial K can be used0The larger the setting, the more reference the average consumption data when performing the planned task.
It should be noted that, in the embodiment of the present application, in addition to the adjustment of the weight parameter by the single transform value x, the weight parameter may also be adjusted by any other feasible manner, for example, an engineer may adjust the weight parameter according to P0、J0、P′-1、J′0According to the change condition, setting a weight parameter K for determining the spare part demand according to the empirical value-1And K0。
S105: obtaining the total time T of the normal task in the next time period plan of the outside unitZ1And the total number C of the spare parts in all the equipment with the spare parts in the next period of the outside unit1。
It should be understood that, in the embodiment of the present application, steps S101, S103, and S105 may be implemented simultaneously or separately, and there is no timing relationship between the three.
It should also be understood that, according to the plan book pre-made for the outside unit, the total duration of the normal tasks in the next time period plan can be determined, the type and number of the corresponding devices having the spare parts are determined, and the number of the spare parts in each type of equipment is also determined, so that the total number of the spare parts in all the equipment having the spare parts can also be determined.
S106: according to the P1、TZ1And C1Determining the demand Q of spare parts in the next time period plan of the outside unit1。
It should be understood that P1Is according to J0And P-1Determining the average consumption prediction quantity per unit time of the spare part in the next period, TZ1For the total duration of the normal tasks planned for the next time period, C1The total number of the spare parts in all equipment having the spare part for the unit outside the residence for the next period, thus passing P1×TZ1×C1The required quantity Q of the spare parts in the next time period plan of the outside unit can be obtained1。
It should be noted that the parking unit will have a demand for the spare part in the next period, except for the planned spare part demand Q determined as described above1In addition, corresponding spare parts also need to be prepared for unplanned tasks. Therefore, in the embodiment of the present application, the demand Q of the spare part outside the schedule of the next time period of the outside unit can also be obtained2And then synthesize Q1And Q2And obtaining the total demand Q of the outside unit for the spare part in the next period.
In the embodiment of the application, the demand Q of the unplanned spare parts in the next time period of the outside unit2The method can be determined by an engineer or personnel of related outside units through estimation according to the analysis of the current situation.
In addition, in the embodiment of the application, P is used1Is based on empirical data P of unit time consumption of historical spare parts-1Determined, and therefore also based on P, in the manner shown in FIG. 21To determine the unplanned spare part demand Q of the next time period of the out-of-residence unit2：
S201: obtaining the location according to the outside unitUnplanned task time T for terrain estimationf1。
In the embodiment of the application, an engineer or a related person in a remote unit estimates the task time T of the unplanned task in the next time period of the remote unit according to the current situationf1And input to the system.
S202: according to P1、Tf1And C1Determining the unplanned spare part demand Q of the next period of the outside unit2。
In particular, can be represented by P1×Tf1×C1Obtaining the unplanned spare part demand Q of the next time period of the outside unit2。
S203: according to Q1And Q2And determining the required quantity Q of the spare parts in the next period of the outside unit.
Specifically, Q1And Q2And adding to obtain the spare part demand Q of the next time period of the outside unit.
It should be noted that, in practical application, after determining the required quantity Q of the spare parts in the next time period of the outside unit, it does not mean that the quantity of the spare parts that need to be distributed to the outside unit is Q, and in fact, there may be a certain quantity of the spare parts left in the outside unit itself, so, as shown in fig. 3, the system in this embodiment of the present application may also determine the actual distribution quantity for the outside unit:
s301: and searching the reserved amount of the standby part by the outside unit in the data reported by the outside unit latest.
S302: and subtracting the reserved quantity from the required quantity Q of the spare parts in the next time period of the outside unit to finally determine the quantity of the spare parts needing to be distributed to the outside unit.
It should be understood that the actual dispatch amount is the number of spare parts actually dispatched to the outside unit in the system, and the resource management is mainly performed according to the dispatch amount.
According to the scheme provided by the embodiment of the application, for any spare part, the spare part consumption R of the normal task in plan during the task by the outside unit is obtainedZ0And the unit outside the residence has the sameTotal number of spare parts C in all installations of the spare part0The average consumption J of the spare part per unit time can be obtained0. Furthermore, by obtaining empirical data P of consumption per unit time of the spare part-1Then based on J0And P-1Determining the average consumption prediction quantity P of the spare part in the next time period1. And finally, combining the total time length T of the normal tasks in the next time period plan of the outside unitZ1And the total number C of the spare parts in all the equipment with the spare parts in the next period of the outside unit1The required quantity Q of the spare parts in the plan of the next time period of the outside unit can be obtained1. In this way, by combining the average consumption J per unit time of the spare part0And empirical data P of the consumption per unit time of the spare part-1The method realizes the determination of the spare part demand of the outside unit in the next period of time in the plan of the spare part, thereby being beneficial to realizing the reasonable allocation of the spare part resources of the outside unit while effectively ensuring the fighting capacity of the outside unit. Compared with the traditional manual prediction mode, the prediction is carried out by depending on the historical data of the outside unit, the influence of subjective factors of personnel is less, the result obtained by measurement and calculation is often closer to the actual requirement, meanwhile, the manual investment can be reduced, and the labor cost is saved.
Example two:
based on the same inventive concept, the embodiment of the application also provides a device for determining the demand of the spare parts. Referring to fig. 4, fig. 4 shows a spare part demand determination apparatus 100 corresponding to the method shown in fig. 1. It should be understood that the specific functions of the spare part requirement amount determining apparatus 100 may be referred to the above description, and the detailed description is appropriately omitted herein to avoid redundancy. The spare part requirement determining apparatus 100 includes at least one software function module that can be stored in a memory in the form of software or firmware or solidified in an operating system of the training apparatus 100. Specifically, the method comprises the following steps:
referring to fig. 4, the spare part demand amount determination apparatus 100 includes: an acquisition module 101 and a processing module 102. Wherein:
an obtaining module 101, configured to obtain a task period of a parking unit for any spare partSpare part consumption R for normal tasks within a planZ0And the total number C of the spare parts in all the equipment with the spare parts in the out-of-home unit0。
A processing module 102 for processing according to RZ0，C0And determining the average consumption J per unit time of the spare parts for the executed task time of the unit outside the residence0。
An obtaining module 101, further configured to obtain empirical data P of consumption per unit time of the spare part-1。
A processing module 102 further configured to process the data according to J0And P-1Determining the average consumption prediction quantity P of spare parts in the next time interval1。
The obtaining module 101 is further configured to obtain a total normal task duration T in the next time period plan of the outside unitZ1And the total number C of the spare parts in all the equipment with the spare parts in the next period of time of the outdoor unit1。
A processing module 102, further configured to process according to P1、TZ1And C1Determining the demand Q of spare parts in the plan of the next period of time of the outside unit1。
In a possible implementation manner of this embodiment of the application, the processing module 102 is specifically configured to, according to the formula P1＝K- 1P-1+K0J0Determining the average consumption prediction quantity P of spare parts in the next time interval1(ii) a Wherein K-1And K0Determining a weight parameter for the spare part requirement, and K-1+K01, and K-1And K0Are all greater than or equal to 0.
In the above possible implementation, the obtaining module 101 is further configured to process the processing module 102 according to J0And P-1Determining the average consumption prediction quantity P of spare parts in the next time interval1Previously, the unit time average consumption prediction quantity P of the spare parts in the current time period obtained in the last spare part demand quantity determination process is obtained0And empirical data P 'of consumption per unit time of spare parts when spare part demand was last determined'-1Average consumption of spare parts per unit timeAmount J'0And a weight parameter K'-1And K'0(ii) a The processing module 102 is further configured to process according to P0、J0、P′-1、J′0Weight parameter K 'for last determination of spare part demand'-1And K'0Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part-1And K0。
In the above possible implementation, the processing module 102 is specifically configured to depend on a formula
Figure BDA0002438290590000181
Determining a transformation value x of the weight parameter; according to the conversion value x, determining a weight parameter K 'of the last time when the spare part demand quantity is determined'-1And K'0Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part-1And K0。
In the above possible implementation, the processing module 102 is specifically configured to depend on a formula
Figure BDA0002438290590000182
After determining a transformation value x of the weight parameter, judging whether the absolute value of the transformation value x is less than or equal to the absolute value of a preset first threshold c; c is a constant greater than 0; when the absolute value of x is less than or equal to the absolute value of a preset first threshold value c, K 'is calculated'-1The sum of the conversion value x is used for obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the requirement of the spare part-1Calculating K'0The difference value of the weight parameter K and the conversion value x is obtained to obtain the weight parameter K in the process of determining the requirement of the spare part0。
In the above possible implementation, the processing module 102 is specifically configured to: when the absolute value of x is larger than the absolute value of a preset first threshold value c, determining whether the absolute value of a transformation value x1 in the last process of determining the required quantity of the spare part is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold value c;
if the absolute value of the transformation value x1 is less than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold c in the last process of determining the required quantity of the spare part:
at a transformed value x largeAt 0, calculate K'-1Obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the demand of the spare part by the sum of the preset first threshold value c-1Calculating K'0Obtaining a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part by the difference value of the preset first threshold value c0；
When the conversion value x is less than 0, calculating K'-1Obtaining a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part by the difference value of the preset first threshold value c-1Calculating K'0Obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the demand of the spare part by the sum of the preset first threshold value c0。
In the above possible implementation, the processing module 102 is specifically configured to: if the absolute value of the transformation value x1 is greater than the absolute value of the preset first threshold c in the last process of determining the required quantity of the spare part: judging whether the absolute value of the conversion value x in the process of determining the spare part demand is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset second threshold d, wherein d is a constant larger than c;
if the absolute value of the conversion value x in the process of determining the spare part demand is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset second threshold d, K 'is calculated'-1The sum of the conversion value x is used for obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the requirement of the spare part-1Calculating K'0The difference value of the weight parameter K and the conversion value x is obtained to obtain the weight parameter K in the process of determining the requirement of the spare part0；
If the absolute value of the conversion value x is larger than the absolute value of the preset second threshold value d in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part:
when the conversion value x is greater than 0, calculating K'-1The sum of the preset second threshold d is used for obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the demand of the spare part-1Calculating K'0The difference value between the current weight parameter and a preset second threshold value d is obtained to obtain a weight parameter K in the process of determining the spare part demand0；
When the conversion value x is less than 0, calculating K'-1The difference value between the current weight parameter and a preset second threshold value d is obtained to obtain a weight parameter K in the process of determining the spare part demand-1Calculating K'0The sum of the preset second threshold d is obtained to obtain the spare partWeight parameter K in demand determination0。
In the embodiment of the present application, the obtaining module 101 is further configured to obtain an unplanned task time T estimated according to a location of a stationary unitf1(ii) a The processing module 102 is further configured to process according to P1、TZ1And C1Determining the demand Q of spare parts in the plan of the next period of time of the outside unit1Then according to P1、Tf1And C1Determining the unplanned spare part demand Q of the next time period of the outside unit2(ii) a According to Q1And Q2And determining the required quantity Q of the spare parts in the next time period of the outdoor unit.
It should be understood that, for the sake of brevity, the contents described in some embodiments are not repeated in this embodiment.
Example three:
the present embodiment provides an electronic device, which is shown in fig. 5 and includes a processor 501, a memory 502 and a communication bus 503. Wherein:
the communication bus 503 is used to realize connection communication between the processor 501 and the memory 502.
The processor 501 is configured to execute one or more programs stored in the memory 502 to implement the spare part requirement determining method in the first embodiment.
It will be appreciated that the configuration shown in figure 5 is merely illustrative and that the electronic device may also comprise more or fewer components than shown in figure 5 or have a different configuration than shown in figure 5, for example may also have components such as data interfaces, display screens and the like.
The present embodiment also provides a readable storage medium, such as a floppy disk, an optical disk, a hard disk, a flash Memory, a usb (secure digital Card), an MMC (Multimedia Card), etc., in which one or more programs for implementing the above steps are stored, and the one or more programs can be executed by one or more processors to implement the method for determining a requirement of a spare part in the first embodiment. And will not be described in detail herein.
In the embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed apparatus and method may be implemented in other ways. The above-described embodiments of the apparatus are merely illustrative, and for example, the division of the units is only one logical division, and there may be other divisions when actually implemented, and for example, a plurality of units or components may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be omitted, or not executed. In addition, the shown or discussed mutual coupling or direct coupling or communication connection may be an indirect coupling or communication connection of devices or units through some communication interfaces, and may be in an electrical, mechanical or other form.
In addition, units described as separate parts may or may not be physically separate, and parts displayed as units may or may not be physical units, may be located in one place, or may be distributed on a plurality of network units. Some or all of the units can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of the embodiment.
Furthermore, the functional modules in the embodiments of the present application may be integrated together to form an independent part, or each module may exist separately, or two or more modules may be integrated to form an independent part.
In this document, relational terms such as first and second, and the like may be used solely to distinguish one entity or action from another entity or action without necessarily requiring or implying any actual such relationship or order between such entities or actions.
In this context, a plurality means two or more.
The above description is only an example of the present application and is not intended to limit the scope of the present application, and various modifications and changes may be made by those skilled in the art. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement and the like made within the spirit and principle of the present application shall be included in the protection scope of the present application.

Claims (10)

1. A spare part demand determination method, comprising:
aiming at any spare part, acquiring the spare part consumption R of a normal task in plan during the task of a parking unitZ0And the total number C of the spare parts in all the equipment with the spare parts in the out-of-residence unit0；
According to the formula RZ0Said C is0And the executed task time of the out-of-residence unit determines the average consumption J of the spare part per unit time0；
Obtaining empirical data P of consumption per unit time of said spare part-1；
According to said J0And P-1Determining the average consumption prediction quantity P of the spare part in the next time period1；
Acquiring the total normal task time T in the next time period plan of the outside unitZ1And the total number C of the spare parts in all the equipment with the spare parts in the next period of the outside unit1；
According to said P1、TZ1And C1Determining the demand Q of spare parts in the next time period plan of the outside unit1。
2. A spare part demand determination method as set forth in claim 1, wherein J is based on0And P-1Determining the average consumption prediction quantity P of the spare part in the next time period1The method comprises the following steps:
according to formula P1＝K-1P-1+K0J0Determining the average consumption prediction quantity P of the spare part in the next time period1(ii) a Wherein K-1And K0Determining a weight parameter for the spare part requirement, and K-1+K01, and said K-1And K0Are all greater than or equal to 0.
3. A spare part demand determination method as set forth in claim 2, wherein J is a function of0And P-1Determining the average consumption prediction quantity P of the spare part in the next time period1Previously, the method further comprises:
obtaining the unit time average consumption prediction quantity P of the spare parts in the current time period obtained in the last spare part demand quantity determination process0And empirical data P 'of consumption per unit time of the spare parts when the spare part demand was last determined'-1And the average consumption J 'per unit time of the spare parts'0And a weight parameter K'-1And K'0；
According to said P0、J0、P′-1、J′0Weight parameter K 'for last determination of spare part demand'-1And K'0Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part-1And K0。
4. A spare part demand determination method as set forth in claim 3, wherein said determining is based on said P0、J0、P′-1、J′0Weight parameter K 'for last determination of spare part demand'-1And K'0Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part-1And K0The method comprises the following steps:
according to the formula
Figure FDA0002438290580000021
Determining a transformation value x of the weight parameter;
according to the conversion value x, determining a weight parameter K 'when the requirement of the spare part is determined last time'-1And K'0Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part-1And K0。
5. A method of determining the demand for spare parts according to claim 4, wherein the method is based on a formula
Figure FDA0002438290580000022
After determining the transform value x of the weight parameter, the method further comprises:
judging whether the absolute value of the transformation value x is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset first threshold value c; c is a constant greater than 0;
correspondingly, the weight parameter K 'of the last time when the spare part demand is determined according to the conversion value x'-1And K'0Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part-1And K0The method comprises the following steps:
calculating K 'when the absolute value of x is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset first threshold value c'-1And the sum of the conversion value x is used for obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the requirement of the spare part-1Calculating the K'0The difference value of the weight parameter K and the conversion value x is obtained to obtain the weight parameter K in the process of determining the requirement of the spare part0。
6. The method of determining a required quantity of spare parts according to claim 5, wherein the weight parameter K 'at the time of last determination of the required quantity of spare parts is determined based on the conversion value x'-1And K'0Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part-1And K0The method also comprises the following steps:
when the absolute value of x is larger than the absolute value of a preset first threshold value c, determining whether the absolute value of a conversion value x1 in the last process of determining the required quantity of the spare part is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold value c;
if the absolute value of the transformation value x1 is less than or equal to the absolute value of the preset first threshold c in the last process of determining the required quantity of the spare part:
when the conversion value x is greater than 0, calculating the K'-1Obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the demand of the spare part according to the sum of the preset first threshold value c-1Calculating the K'0Obtaining a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part by the difference value of the preset first threshold value c0；
When the conversion value x is less than 0, calculating the K'-1Obtaining a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part by the difference value of the preset first threshold value c-1Calculating the K'0Obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the demand of the spare part according to the sum of the preset first threshold value c0。
7. The method of determining a required quantity of spare parts according to claim 6, wherein the weight parameter K 'at the time of last determination of the required quantity of spare parts is determined based on the conversion value x'-1And K'0Adjusting to obtain a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part-1And K0The method also comprises the following steps:
if the absolute value of the transformation value x1 is greater than the absolute value of the preset first threshold c in the last process of determining the required quantity of the spare part:
judging whether the absolute value of the transformation value x is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset second threshold value d in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part, wherein d is a constant larger than c;
if the absolute value of the transformation value x is smaller than or equal to the absolute value of a preset second threshold value d in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part, calculating K'-1And the sum of the conversion value x is used for obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the requirement of the spare part-1Calculating the K'0The difference value of the weight parameter K and the conversion value x is obtained to obtain the weight parameter K in the process of determining the requirement of the spare part0；
If the absolute value of the transformation value x is greater than the absolute value of a preset second threshold d in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part:
when the conversion value x is greater than 0, calculating the K'-1And the sum of the preset second threshold d is used for obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the demand of the spare part-1Calculating the K'0Obtaining a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part by the difference value of the preset second threshold value d0；
When the conversion value x is less than 0, calculating the K'-1Obtaining a weight parameter K in the process of determining the required quantity of the spare part by the difference value of the preset second threshold value d-1Calculating the K'0And the sum of the preset second threshold d is used for obtaining the weight parameter K in the process of determining the demand of the spare part0。
8. A spare part demand determination method as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7, wherein P is a function of1、TZ1And C1Determining the demand Q of spare parts in the next time period plan of the outside unit1Then, the method further comprises the following steps:
acquiring the estimated planned task time T according to the stationing situation of the outside unitf1；
According to said P1、Tf1And C1Determining the demand Q of the unplanned spare parts in the next period of the outside unit2；
According to said Q1And Q2And determining the required quantity Q of the spare parts in the next time period of the exterior unit.
9. A spare part demand amount determination device, characterized by comprising: the device comprises an acquisition module and a processing module;
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the spare part consumption R of a normal task in plan during the task period of an outside unit aiming at any spare partZ0And the total number C of the spare parts in all the equipment with the spare parts in the out-of-residence unit0；
The processing module is used for processing the RZ0Said C is0And the executed task time of the out-of-residence unit determines the average consumption J of the spare part per unit time0；
The acquisition module is further used for acquiring empirical data P of unit time consumption of the spare part-1；
The processing module is also used for processing the data according to the J0And P-1Determining the average consumption prediction quantity P of the spare part in the next time period1；
The acquisition module is further used for acquiring the total normal task time T in the next time period plan of the outside unitZ1And the total number C of the spare parts in all the equipment with the spare parts in the next period of the outside unit1；
The processing module is further used for processing the data according to the P1、TZ1And C1Determining the demand Q of spare parts in the next time period plan of the outside unit1。
10. An electronic device, comprising: a processor, a memory, and a communication bus;
the communication bus is used for realizing connection communication between the processor and the memory;
the processor is configured to execute one or more programs stored in the memory to implement the spare part requirement determination method as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 8.
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