JP2019101689A - Comprehensive influence evaluation method and comprehensive influence evaluation system - Google Patents

Abstract

To comprehensively evaluate influence by ripple effect and rebound effect through introduction of ICT service from a viewpoint of environment and economy.SOLUTION: A computer accepts input of information showing ICT service of an evaluation object and a diffusion rate of the ICT service; on the basis of information for a calculating rate of change in various demand by using the ICT service stored in a first storage unit regarding the ICT service of the evaluation object and the diffusion rate, calculates the rate of change; on the basis of information stored in a second storage unit, acquires the amount saved annually by using the ICT service of the evaluation object; on the basis of the saved amount, calculates a changed amount in demand of each section; by performing balance calculation with the rate of change and the changed amount being reflected to an industry related table of a reference year, calculates the amount of emission of GHG and the amount of production influence or the amount of economical influence; and performs a fourth calculation procedure for calculating difference from a value of the reference year regarding each of the amount of emission of GHG and the amount of production influence or the amount of influence.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 4

Description

  The present invention relates to an integrated impact evaluation method and an integrated impact evaluation system.

  An environmental impact assessment method for information and communication technology (ICT) products and services is described in ITU-T. It is internationally standardized in 1410 (non-patent document 1). Many companies that provide ICT services use this method to evaluate the contribution of ICT services to environmental impact reduction on society, and publish the evaluation results.

In this method, CO ₂ emissions before and after the introduction of ICT services are evaluated based on LCA (Life Cycle Assessment), and the difference is taken as the CO ₂ reduction effect.

ITU-T Recommendation. L. 1410, "Methodology for environmental life assessments of information and communication technologies goods, networks and services", 2014 Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "Summary of environmental impact assessment method by ICT" L. Erdmann et al., "The future impact of ICTs on environmental sustainability", Technical Report EUR 21384 EN, 2004 A. Hankel, "Understanding higher order impacts of green ICT", 2nd international conference on ICT for sustainability, pp. 385-391, 2014

  However, in the LCA evaluation method, it is considered difficult to consider the overall impact of the economy, including the inter-industry and inter-industry-family interactions. If the economic equilibrium is broken due to the spread of ICT services, supply and demand adjustments will be made by the price mechanism, and it is thought that production activities will change through input-output to new balance, but LCA is based on such price mechanisms. It is difficult to assess changes in the balance of supply and demand (ripple effects) across the economy.

In addition, new environmental impact (rebound effect) such as an increase in CO ₂ emissions occurs when new activities (shopping, transportation, etc.) are performed using ICT service users using saved time and expenses. It is pointed out that it does (nonpatent literature 3, 4).

  The present invention has been made in view of the above-described points, and it is an object of the present invention to comprehensively evaluate the effects of the ripple effect and the rebound effect by the introduction of the ICT service from the viewpoint of the environment and the economy.

  Therefore, in order to solve the above problems, the integrated impact evaluation method includes an input procedure for receiving an input of information indicating an ICT service to be evaluated and a penetration rate of the ICT service, and a first storage unit for the ICT service to be evaluated. A first calculation procedure for calculating the change rate based on the information stored in the information for calculating change rates of various demands due to use of the ICT service, and the spread rate, and a second storage Based on the information stored in the department, the acquisition procedure for acquiring the amount of money saved annually by using the ICT service to be evaluated, and the amount of change in demand of each department based on the amount of money saved. GHG emissions and production impact or economy by performing equilibrium calculation with the second calculation procedure to be calculated, the change rate, and the change amount reflected in the input-output table of the base year The computer executes the third calculation procedure for calculating the echo amount and the fourth calculation procedure for calculating the difference between the GHG emission amount and the production influence amount or the economic influence amount with the value of the base year .

  It is possible to make it possible to comprehensively evaluate the effects of ripple effects and rebound effects from the introduction of ICT services from the viewpoint of environment and economy.

It is a figure which shows the example of a network configuration in embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of a hardware constitutions of the computer which comprises the comprehensive impact assessment system 10 in embodiment of this invention. It is a figure showing an example of functional composition of integrated impact assessment system 10 in an embodiment of the invention. It is a flowchart for demonstrating an example of the process sequence which the comprehensive impact evaluation system 10 performs. It is a figure which shows an example of the information which shows the ratio of the new various activities which generate | occur | produce based on the household saving cost which use of a "flight ticket online reservation" service brings. It is a figure which shows an example of the change amount of the demand of the sector corresponding to the various activities based on the annual saving amount by the same service.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described based on the drawings. FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of a network configuration according to an embodiment of the present invention. In FIG. 2, the integrated impact evaluation system 10 is connected to one or more user terminals 20 via a network such as the Internet or a LAN (Local Area Network).

  The integrated impact assessment system 10 is one or more computers that assess the environmental and economic impact of introducing Information and Communication Technology (ICT) services. In the present embodiment, the ICT service is not a specific service provided by a specific business operator, but is distinguished according to the category or type of service such as, for example, “Online reservation of airline ticket” service. Corresponds to the

  The user terminal 20 is a terminal that receives an input of evaluation conditions to the integrated impact evaluation system 10 from a user, and outputs (displays) an evaluation result by the integrated impact evaluation system 10. For example, a PC (Personal Computer), a smartphone, a tablet terminal or the like may be used as the user terminal 20.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of a hardware configuration of a computer constituting the integrated impact evaluation system 10 according to the embodiment of this invention. The computers constituting the integrated impact evaluation system 10 have a drive device 100, an auxiliary storage device 102, a memory device 103, a CPU 104, an interface device 105 and the like mutually connected by a bus B.

  A program for realizing the processing in the integrated impact evaluation system 10 is provided by a recording medium 101 such as a CD-ROM. When the recording medium 101 storing the program is set in the drive apparatus 100, the program is installed from the recording medium 101 to the auxiliary storage apparatus 102 via the drive apparatus 100. However, the installation of the program does not necessarily have to be performed from the recording medium 101, and may be downloaded from another computer via a network. The auxiliary storage device 102 stores the installed program and also stores necessary files and data.

  The memory device 103 reads out the program from the auxiliary storage device 102 and stores it when there is an instruction to start the program. The CPU 104 executes the function related to the general impact evaluation system 10 in accordance with the program stored in the memory device 103. The interface device 105 is used as an interface for connecting to a network.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of a functional configuration of the integrated impact evaluation system 10 according to the embodiment of the present invention. In FIG. 3, the integrated impact evaluation system 10 includes an input unit 11, a change rate calculation unit 12, an annual savings amount calculation unit 13, a demand change amount calculation unit 14, a balance calculation unit 15, a difference calculation unit 16, an output unit 17 and the like. Have. These units are realized by processing that the CPU 104 executes one or more programs installed in the integrated impact evaluation system 10.

  The integrated impact assessment system 10 also uses a database such as an ICT diffusion scenario DB 21, an ICT usage frequency DB 22, a saving cost DB 23, an additional activity ratio DB 24 and an input-output table DB 25. Each database can be realized, for example, using the auxiliary storage device 102 or a storage device connectable to the integrated impact assessment system 10 via a network.

  The ICT spread scenario DB 21 stores, for each ICT service, information for calculating, based on the penetration rate of the ICT service, the change rate of various demands caused by using the ICT service. The "penetration rate" of an ICT service means the penetration rate to the whole population who performs activities related to the ICT service regardless of whether or not the ICT service is used. For example, in the case of a "flight ticket online reservation" service, it means the penetration rate of the "flight ticket online reservation" service to the population who makes a flight ticket reservation whether online or not.

  The number of times of annual use (estimated value) corresponding to the penetration rate of the ICT service is stored in the ICT use frequency DB 22 for each ICT service.

  The saving cost DB 23 stores, for each ICT service, information indicating a cost saved by one use. For example, if the cost and time necessary for transportation can be saved by using the ICT service, the amount of the cost and the time may be stored in the cost saving DB 23, or the time may be stored by a known method. The sum of the amount of money of the expense and the amount of money of the time may be stored in the saved cost DB 23 by converting into Hereinafter, the total is referred to as “saving cost”.

  The additional activity ratio DB 24 stores, for each ICT service, information indicating the ratio of various new activities that are generated based on the cost saved by using the ICT service.

  The input-output table DB 25 stores information indicating an input-output table of a certain year (hereinafter, referred to as a “base year”).

  The processing procedure executed by the integrated impact assessment system 10 will be described below. FIG. 4 is a flowchart for explaining an example of the processing procedure executed by the integrated impact assessment system 10.

  In step S101, the input unit 11 receives, from the user terminal 20, an evaluation condition input in any of the user terminals 20 (that is, receives an input of the evaluation condition). As the evaluation conditions, information (for example, service name) indicating an ICT service to be evaluated (hereinafter referred to as “target service”) and a penetration rate of target service (hereinafter referred to as “target penetration rate”) included. For example, an evaluation condition including “Online reservation of airline ticket” as information indicating the target service and “70%” as a penetration rate is received. That is, in the present embodiment, it is assumed that the user wants to know the evaluation of the impact on the environment and the economy when the target service is spread to the extent indicated by the target penetration rate.

  Subsequently, the change rate calculation unit 12 calculates various demands between the industrial sector or between the industrial sector and the household based on the information stored in the ICT diffusion scenario DB 21 for the target service and the target diffusion rate. The rate of change is calculated (S102).

For example, with regard to the “Online reservation of airline ticket” service, the ICT diffusion scenario DB 21 includes the number of passengers N = 91646 thousand, the distance L per trip to the air sales window L = 6.2 km, and the share of cars in the transportation means Rate reduction rate of 54.3%, total vehicle transportation volume V = 83 billion people, etc., and reduction rate of vehicle transportation volume by introducing "Online reservation of airline ticket" service (ie final demand (final consumption expenditure) The following calculation formula is stored as a calculation formula of the reduction rate of the demand for gasoline and light oil.
Reduction rate of automobile traffic volume = ((N × change in penetration rate for evaluation year and base year × L × R) ÷ V) × 100
Here, assuming that the penetration rate in the base year is 0, the “change in penetration rate between the evaluation year and base year” is 70%.
That is, regarding the “Online reservation of airline ticket” service, the ICT spread scenario DB 21 stores the above-mentioned parameters (N, L, R, V) and a calculation formula using the spread rate as a variable.

Therefore, if the target penetration rate = 70%, the reduction rate of automobile transport volume (the reduction rate of the demand for gasoline and diesel oil for the final demand (final consumption expenditure)) is calculated as follows.
((91646 x 10 ³ x 0.7 x 6.2 x 0.543) / 8300 x 10 ⁸ ) = 0.027%
Furthermore, N, L, R, V, etc. related to rail transportation may be stored in the ICT diffusion scenario DB 21 regarding the “Online reservation of airline ticket” service. In this case, for example, a reduction rate of rail transport (ie, a reduction rate of rail passenger transport of final demand (final consumption expenditure)) may be calculated. Here, it is assumed that the calculation result is 0.0076%.

  In the above, the reduction rate of automobile or railway transportation (the reduction in demand for gasoline and diesel oil for final demand (final consumption expenditure) and the reduction for railway passenger transportation for final demand (final consumption expenditure)) Although an example calculated as the rate of change of demand is shown, the changing demand varies depending on the ICT service. Therefore, it is desirable that an appropriate value be stored in the ICT diffusion scenario DB 21 for each ICT service as to what the changing demand is and the calculation formula of the rate of change of demand. The rate of change is an example of an index corresponding to the ripple effect.

  Subsequently, the annual savings amount calculation unit 13 stores the annual usage count corresponding to the target penetration rate stored in the ICT usage count DB 22 for the target service and the saving cost stored in the saving cost DB 23. The amount of money saved in one year (hereinafter referred to as "the amount saved annually") is calculated (S103). If the value stored in the saving cost DB 23 is an amount and a time, the annual saving amount calculation unit 13 converts the time into an amount to obtain a saving cost, and then the annual saving amount. Is calculated.

For example, when the penetration rate of the "flight ticket online reservation" service is 70%, the number of annual usages stored in the ICT use frequency DB 22 is 29.64 million, and the saving cost DB 23 for the "flight ticket online reservation" service If the saving cost stored in the is ¥ 920, the annual saving amount is calculated by calculating ¥ 2964 × 10 ⁴ × 920.

  In the present embodiment, there is shown an example in which the ICT usage count DB 22 and the saving cost DB 23 are distinguished and the annual saving amount is dynamically calculated. For example, for each ICT service, the penetration rate is The calculation result of the corresponding annual saved amount may be stored in the database in advance. In this case, in step S103, the annual saving amount calculation unit 13 may obtain the annual saving amount corresponding to the target service and the target diffusion rate from the database.

  Subsequently, the demand change calculation unit 14 stores the annual saving amount based on the information indicating the ratio of new activities generated based on the saving cost, which is stored in the additional activity ratio DB 24 for the target ICT service, By allocating (distributing) to the industrial sector (hereinafter, simply referred to as "division") corresponding to various activities, the change amount of the demand of each division is calculated (S104). The amount of change in demand is an example of an index corresponding to the rebound effect.

  For example, FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of information indicating the proportion of new various activities that occur based on the saving cost brought about by the use of the “flight ticket online reservation” service. In FIG. 5, although the ratio of various activities is indicated by the format of the band graph, for example, the information indicated by the band graph is stored in the additional activity ratio DB 24.

  Further, FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of the amount of change in demand of the sector corresponding to various activities based on the annual saving amount by the service. FIG. 6 shows the “divisions” corresponding to the various activities shown in FIG. 5 and the “change amount of demand” in the divisions. In addition, the information which shows the department corresponding to various activities is memorize | stored in additional activity ratio DB24, for example. Further, the “amount of change in demand” in FIG. 5 is calculated by multiplying the annual savings amount by the proportion of activities corresponding to the sector (see FIG. 5).

Subsequently, the equilibrium calculation unit 15 calculates the rate of change of various types of demand calculated in step S102 and the amount of change in demand of each division calculated in step S104 in the industry of the base year stored in the input / output table DB25. The equilibrium calculation based on the applied general equilibrium model is performed with the relation table reflected, and CO ₂ emissions and GDP are calculated (S 105). Here, the state where the rate of change of various types of demand and the amount of change in demand of each sector are reflected in the I / O table means between the industries included in the I / O table or between the household budget (final demand) and the industry. The input coefficient or demand amount between the two is said to be changed by the rate of change and the amount of change.

  In the input-output table, inter-industrial demand (supply and demand) is represented by an input factor, and household budget (final demand) is represented by a monetary amount (demand amount). Therefore, a change in demand (supply and demand) between industries based on the rate of change is realized by changing the input coefficient between the industries. That is, the input coefficient is changed by calculating (1 + rate of change) × input coefficient. On the other hand, the demand amount of the household (final demand) is changed by calculating (1 + change rate) × the demand amount.

For example, in the example of the “flight ticket online reservation” service, CO ₂ emissions = 1305.8 (Mt−CO ₂ ), GDP = 504.6322 (trillion yen) are calculated by equilibrium calculation.

As GDP is included in the I / O table, it is calculated immediately (directly) by equilibrium calculation. CO ₂ emissions are calculated for each sector by converting the production amount (demand amount) of each sector obtained from equilibrium calculation into CO ₂ emissions. The conversion method from production value to CO ₂ emissions, which has been decided for each sector, is incorporated, for example, as the logic of the balance calculation unit 15 (this change method is actually included in the applied general equilibrium model). ing.). Therefore, the equilibrium calculator 15 first calculates the CO ₂ emissions of each division, and calculates the sum of the CO ₂ emissions per sector.

Subsequently, the difference calculation unit 16 calculates, for each of the CO ₂ emissions and the GDP, the values calculated in step S 105 and the values of the base year stored in the input / output table DB 25 (CO ₂ emissions The difference between the total amount of CO ₂ emissions) and GDP) is calculated (S106).

For example, if CO ₂ emissions in the base year = 1305.9 (Mt-CO ₂ ), GDP = 504.3633 (trillion yen), the difference is 0.1 (Mt− for CO ₂ emissions. CO ₂ ) Decrease, GDP will decrease by 100 million yen.

  Subsequently, the output unit 17 transmits the calculation result in step S106 to the user terminal 20 that is the transmission source of the evaluation condition (S107). As a result, the user can grasp the evaluation result based on the evaluation condition.

  As described above, according to the present embodiment, it is possible to comprehensively evaluate the spillover effect due to the introduction of the ICT service and the impact due to the rebound effect from the viewpoint of the environment and the economy.

Although the CO ₂ emissions and the GDP are determined in the above-described embodiment, the emissions of other greenhouse gases (GHGs) can also be determined by the same method. In addition, the amount of production impact or economic impact other than GDP may be calculated. It is also possible to determine the amount of greenhouse gas emissions to a particular industry, the amount of production impact or the amount of economic impact. In that case, the greenhouse gas emissions, production impact or economic impact of the industry is obtained in S105, and the difference between the greenhouse gas emissions, production impact or economic impact in the base year of the industry is calculated in S106. It may be calculated. As a result, it is possible to make it possible to assess the environmental and economic impact of introducing ICT services, reflecting a wider range of impacts.

  In addition, sustainable activities can be proposed in terms of how much time and money are saved by introducing ICT services.

  In the present embodiment, the ICT diffusion scenario DB 21 is an example of a first storage unit. The ICT usage count DB 22 and the saved cost DB 23 are an example of a second storage unit. The ICT usage count DB 22 is an example of a third storage unit. The saving cost DB 23 is an example of a fourth storage unit. The change rate calculation unit 12 is an example of a first calculation unit. The annual savings amount calculation unit 13 is an example of an acquisition unit. The demand change amount calculation unit 14 is an example of a second calculation unit. The balance calculation unit 15 is an example of a third calculation unit. The difference calculating unit 16 is an example of a fourth calculating unit.

  Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described above in detail, the present invention is not limited to such specific embodiments, and various modifications may be made within the scope of the present invention as set forth in the claims. Modifications and changes are possible.

10 integrated impact assessment system 11 input unit 12 rate of change calculation unit 13 annual savings calculation unit 14 demand change calculation unit 15 balance calculation unit 16 difference calculation unit 17 output unit 21 ICT diffusion scenario DB
22 ICT use frequency DB
23 Saving cost database
24 additional activity rate DB
25 Input-Output Table DB
100 drive device 101 recording medium 102 auxiliary storage device 103 memory device 104 CPU
105 Interface device B bus

Claims (6)

An input procedure for receiving input of information indicating an ICT service to be evaluated and the penetration rate of the ICT service;
The change rate is calculated based on the information stored in the first storage unit for the ICT service to be evaluated, which is used to calculate the change rate of various demands due to the use of the ICT service, and the penetration rate The first calculation procedure to
An acquisition procedure for acquiring an amount of money saved annually by using the ICT service to be evaluated based on the information stored in the second storage unit;
A second calculation procedure of calculating a change amount of demand of each department based on the saved amount of money;
A third calculation procedure for calculating GHG emissions and production impact amount or economic impact amount by performing equilibrium calculation with the change rate and the change amount reflected in the input-output table of the base year;
A fourth calculation procedure of calculating a difference between the GHG emission amount and the production influence amount or the economic influence amount with respect to the value of the base year;
A comprehensive impact evaluation method characterized in that the computer executes. The second storage unit is a third storage unit that stores the number of annual use of the ICT service according to the penetration rate of the ICT service for each ICT service, and is saved for one use for each ICT service. And a fourth storage unit for storing the
The acquisition procedure acquires, from the third storage unit, the number of annual uses corresponding to the penetration rate received in the input procedure for the ICT service to be evaluated, and the ICT to be evaluated from the fourth storage unit Obtain an amount of money for the service, and calculate an amount of money saved annually for the ICT service to be evaluated, based on the obtained number of annual use and the obtained amount of money;
The integrated impact evaluation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The second calculation procedure refers to the information that indicates the ratio of various activities that occur based on the amount of money saved for each of the ICT services, and the information that indicates the division corresponding to the various activities. Calculate the amount of change in demand of each department based on the saved amount of money acquired in the acquisition procedure for an ICT service,
The integrated impact evaluation method according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that: An input unit that receives input of information indicating an ICT service to be evaluated and the penetration rate of the ICT service;
The change rate is calculated based on the information stored in the first storage unit for the ICT service to be evaluated, which is used to calculate the change rate of various demands due to the use of the ICT service, and the penetration rate A first calculation unit to
An acquisition unit for acquiring an amount of money saved annually by using the ICT service to be evaluated, based on the information stored in the second storage unit;
A second calculation unit that calculates the amount of change in demand for each department based on the amount of money saved;
A third calculation unit that calculates GHG emissions and production impact or economic impact by performing equilibrium calculation with the change rate and the change reflected in the input-output table of the base year;
A fourth calculation unit configured to calculate a difference between the GHG emission amount and the production influence amount or the economic influence amount with respect to the value of the base year;
A comprehensive impact evaluation system characterized by having. The second storage unit is a third storage unit that stores the number of annual use of the ICT service according to the penetration rate of the ICT service for each ICT service, and is saved for one use for each ICT service. And a fourth storage unit for storing the
The acquisition unit acquires, from the third storage unit, the number of annual uses corresponding to the penetration rate received by the input unit with respect to the ICT service to be evaluated, and the ICT of the evaluation target from the fourth storage unit. Obtain an amount of money for the service, and calculate an amount of money saved annually for the ICT service to be evaluated, based on the obtained number of annual use and the obtained amount of money;
The integrated impact assessment system according to claim 4, characterized in that: The second calculation unit refers to the information indicating the ratio of various activities generated based on the amount of money saved for each ICT service, and the information indicating the division corresponding to the various activities, and the second calculation unit Calculate the amount of change in demand of each department based on the saved amount of money acquired by the acquisition unit for an ICT service,
The integrated impact assessment system according to claim 4 or 5, characterized in that:

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