JP2018180953A - Business feasibility evaluation method and business feasibility evaluation system - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide business feasibility evaluation of a business entity including movable property appraisal in consideration of risk assessment of the equipment required to continue the business.SOLUTION: A method for evaluating the viability of a business entity performing a power generation project, including a step of transmitting from a server database an evaluation sheet, describing evaluation items and evaluation methods thereof concerning movable property appraisal, power generation risk evaluation, and disaster risk evaluation, to a terminal, a step of receiving the evaluation sheet in which an evaluation by an evaluator is written from the terminal as an evaluation result, totaling evaluation points for each evaluation sheet, and converting the evaluation points into a predetermined evaluation index, a step of calculating a future value price by subtracting the total amount of expense from the power sale amount calculated from the power generation amount and the electric energy amount fee unit price during a period from the evaluation time to a predetermined annual limit, and a step of weighting each of the evaluation indexes converted on the respective evaluation sheets and multiplying the sum value of the decimal factors by the future value price to calculate an expected value price for sale.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  The present invention relates to a method of evaluating business viability and a system for evaluating business viability, and more particularly, a server including a database, which is capable of calculating the evaluation value of movable property possessed by the business and the business business of the business concerned. The present invention relates to a business evaluation method and a business evaluation system for providing an evaluation.

  Conventionally, a system that supports the loan business of property collateral at a financial institution supports the "management" business of property collateral. For example, the computer system connected to the commodity market database is used to acquire the market value of the property for which the property is secured, and the unit price of the property is updated to periodically evaluate the property for property. Furthermore, the loan management system calculates the value of the movable property by multiplying the latest unit price by the quantity of the property for which the property is secured and multiplying the product according to the volatility of price fluctuation etc. (see, for example, patent document 1) ).

  However, the conventional loan management system only supports the “management” operation of property collateral, and takes into consideration the characteristics of products, seasonal fluctuation and market value, and changes in property over time. There was a problem that there was no means to do the evaluation considered. Therefore, there has been proposed a movable property evaluation system capable of easily calculating an evaluation value in consideration of characteristics of a product or the like for movable property (see, for example, Patent Document 2).

  It is useful not only to obtain the information necessary for performing the business of financing for personal property, but also to monitor the actual situation of the business of the company, to know the evaluation value of the property of the company. That is, by evaluating the movable assets over time, the liquidity of the movable assets and trade receivables becomes clear, and it becomes easy to grasp the continuity and growth of the business.

JP, 2004-171594, A Patent No. 4219382

  In the conventional movable property evaluation system, for example, the stock of the raw materials in the manufacturing industry and the product after manufacturing can be used as one index of evaluation of business feasibility by evaluating them as movable property. However, in order to understand the continuity and growth of the business, not only the value of these stocks, but also the safety of facilities necessary to continue the business, such as raw materials, storage conditions of products, and operation modes of manufacturing facilities. It is necessary to consider the nature, durability, etc.

  In addition, for the manufacturing industry, the distribution industry, etc., the articles to be handled can be evaluated as movable property, and therefore, they are useful for evaluating the business performance as described above. On the other hand, in the service industry that provides only labor, and in the business dealing with intangibles such as information and electricity, facilities provided for the business, for example, network facilities such as servers in the information communication industry, power generation in power businesses, power transmission facilities, etc. By treating them as movable property, it is possible to use it for evaluation of business potential.

  However, in the conventional movable property evaluation system, although it is possible to handle the articles on the general distribution channel, the evaluation of the articles which are not on the distribution channel such as business equipment has not been considered. In addition, in the conventional system, it has been evaluated as hardware of equipment and has not been evaluated from the operational aspect of the business including software. Furthermore, in projects conducted under legal regulations, in addition to examinations prior to the start of the project, compliance with inspections and maintenance during the project implementation and equipment removal after the project termination is required. Although compliance with such compliance matters is an important indicator of business evaluation, it has not been considered at all in the conventional system.

  In the conventional property evaluation system, the disposal price of the property is calculated as the evaluation result. Similarly, in the case of business evaluation, the sales price of the business equipment and the price when selling all of the business can be considered as the evaluation result, but there was no system that can calculate such sales price.

  The object of the present invention is to provide a business performance evaluation method and a business performance evaluation system for providing a business performance evaluation of the business operator including the property evaluation by considering the risk evaluation of facilities necessary for continuing the business. It is.

  The present invention is, in order to achieve such an object, an embodiment of the present invention is a method of evaluating the business of a business operator performing a power generation business with a server connected to a terminal of an evaluator, the server The evaluation sheet describing the evaluation items and evaluation methods for movable property evaluation, power generation risk evaluation and disaster risk evaluation from the database in the step of transmitting to the terminal, and the evaluation by the evaluator is entered from the terminal An evaluation sheet is received as an evaluation result, and the evaluation point is totaled for each evaluation sheet, and the step of converting into a predetermined evaluation index, and the power generation amount from the time of evaluation to a predetermined annual term Calculating a future value price by subtracting the total amount of expenses from the calculated power sale amount, and weighting each of the evaluation indicators converted in each of the evaluation sheets Only performed, the summed decimal factor, characterized by comprising the steps of calculating the sale expected value price by multiplying the future value price.

  As described above, according to the present invention, evaluation from the operational aspect of the business becomes possible based on the evaluation results of the three stages, and the future value as a business operator becomes clear by calculation of the sales expected value price. It is possible to provide the business operator's business performance evaluation including the evaluation.

It is a figure showing the composition of the business evaluation system concerning one embodiment of the present invention. It is a flow chart which shows the business evaluation method concerning one embodiment of the present invention. It is a figure which shows the structure of the server concerning this embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows the method of movable property evaluation concerning this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the evaluation item of environmental evaluation in movable property evaluation. It is a figure which shows the evaluation item of design evaluation in movable property evaluation. It is a figure which shows the evaluation item of feasibility evaluation in movable property evaluation. It is a flowchart which shows the method of the electric power generation risk evaluation concerning this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the evaluation item of the document evaluation in power generation risk evaluation. It is a figure which shows the evaluation item of O & M implementation item evaluation in the electric power generation risk evaluation. It is a figure which shows the evaluation item of the equipment inspection examination in the electric power generation risk evaluation. It is a flowchart which shows the method of the disaster risk evaluation concerning this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the evaluation item of the general information in disaster risk evaluation. It is a figure which shows the evaluation item of design document examination in disaster risk evaluation. It is a figure which shows the evaluation item of the local information in disaster risk evaluation.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. In the present embodiment, as an object to be evaluated for business performance, a business operator who has solar power generation equipment and sells electric power will be described as an example. Therefore, it is obvious to those skilled in the art that the present invention can be applied to a power generation business using renewable energy as a target for evaluating business viability.

  FIG. 1 shows the configuration of a business performance evaluation system according to an embodiment of the present invention. A server 1 executing the main function of business evaluation and a server 1 connected via the network 2 to provide information necessary for business evaluation, and various terminals using evaluation results are connected. In the terminal, the evaluation of the movable property of the enterprise, the terminal 3 of the evaluator performing evaluation of the facility for business which is real estate, and the testing and inspection of the devices constituting the facility for business by various test devices 6 From the result, the terminal 4 of the evaluator performing the evaluation of the device, the terminal 5 of the evaluator performing the evaluation on the actual site, etc. are included in the place where the business equipment is installed.

  FIG. 2 shows a method of evaluating business feasibility according to an embodiment of the present invention. The feasibility evaluation can be roughly divided into three stages, ie, the movable property evaluation S1, the power generation risk evaluation S2, and the disaster risk evaluation S3, and these are summarized and comprehensive evaluation S4 is performed.

  FIG. 3 shows the configuration of the server according to the present embodiment. The server 1 receives the central processing unit 11, a main storage unit 12 storing programs and data, an evaluation sheet, an evaluation result, a database 13 storing reference information, etc., and an input from an evaluator, and outputs an evaluation result. The input / output device 14 and the communication device 15 for connecting to the network 2 are mutually connected via a bus.

  The evaluation item master 31 stores evaluation items used at each evaluation stage and an evaluation sheet in which the evaluation method is described in the database 13, information on equipment to be evaluated, information of equipment, estimation of power generation etc. It includes a reference information master 32 storing weather data, information on laws and regulations concerning a power generation business, and an evaluation document master 33 storing an evaluation result in which an evaluation by an evaluator is written on an evaluation sheet.

  The three stages of evaluation will be outlined below.

Evaluation of movable assets
FIG. 4 shows a method for evaluating movable property according to the present embodiment. The movable property evaluation can be divided into four stages of environmental evaluation S11, design evaluation S12, business performance evaluation S13, and estimation of future value S14, and these are put together to make movable property evaluation result S15.

  FIG. 5 shows evaluation items of environmental evaluation in movable property evaluation. Environmental evaluation S12 is performed mainly by on-site survey. The evaluator accesses the server 1 from the terminal 5 at the site of the solar power generation facility to be evaluated, and from the evaluation item master 31 stored in the database 13, an evaluation sheet including the evaluation items shown in FIG. Download). The evaluator assigns an evaluation score for each evaluation item in, for example, a 5-step evaluation according to the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (environment), and uploads the evaluation result to the database 13 as an evaluation result.

  Further, the evaluator gives evaluation points according to the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (environment) for the surrounding environment while referring to the weather data etc. of the reference information master 32 stored in the database 13. Furthermore, while referring to the laws and regulations, etc. of the reference information master 32, evaluation points are provided for regulations, statutory requirements, and the like.

  FIG. 6 shows evaluation items of design evaluation in movable property evaluation. The design evaluation S13 is performed together with the document examination and the on-site examination. The evaluator accesses the server 1 from the terminal 3 or 5 and downloads an evaluation sheet (design) including the evaluation items shown in FIG. 6 from the evaluation item master 31 stored in the database 13. The evaluator assigns evaluation points for each evaluation item in, for example, a 5-step evaluation according to the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (design), and uploads the evaluation results to the database 13 as an evaluation result.

  FIG. 7 shows evaluation items of the business evaluation in the movable property evaluation. The business evaluation S14 is mainly performed by a written examination. The evaluator accesses the server 1 from the terminal 3 and downloads an evaluation sheet (business nature) including the evaluation items shown in FIG. 7 from the evaluation item master 31 stored in the database 13. The evaluator assigns an evaluation point for each evaluation item in, for example, a 5-step evaluation according to the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (business feasibility), and uploads it to the database 13 as an evaluation result.

  When the evaluation results of the evaluation sheet (environment), the evaluation sheet (design) and the evaluation sheet (business feasibility) are uploaded to the evaluation document master 33 in the database 13 in the movable property evaluation result S15, the server 1 adds up the evaluation points. Then, according to a predetermined standard, a movable property evaluation comprehensive evaluation point is calculated. As an example, weighting is performed for each evaluation item, and it is replaced with a 10-level evaluation index according to the total score of evaluation points.

The following prices are defined as the value of movable property in the movable property evaluation.
・ Construction price: The total amount of construction cost at the beginning of construction of solar power generation equipment ・ Disposal price: Price of collective disposal at the time of evaluation of solar power generation equipment → Installation area, site area, power generation amount, selling price Published and suggested amount by the company wishing to buy-Future value price: The difference between the power sale income and estimated expenses from evaluation to 20 years after installation-Expected value price on sale: Power generation risk assessment and disaster risk assessment based on future value price The
It is an added price, and a price that is appropriate when selling it at the time of evaluation.

  In the future price estimation S14, the above-mentioned future value price is calculated. First, from the information of the equipment stored in the reference information master 32 of the database 13, the meteorological data, etc., the power generation amount is estimated from the evaluation time to 20 years after installation. For example, if four years have passed from the construction at the time of evaluation, the monthly power generation is calculated and calculated from the specifications of the solar cell and the average solar radiation for each month from the annual power generation of the fifth year. Calculate. If the actual value of the amount of power generation from the construction year to the fourth year is known, a correction may be added to the annual amount of power calculated based on this. Next, the annual power generation amount from the sixth year to the twentieth year is calculated in consideration of aging deterioration of the solar cell and the like.

  By multiplying the annual power output by the unit price of electricity, it is possible to find the sale price from the time of evaluation (after the fifth year) to 20 years after installation. In addition, the electricity amount charge unit price estimates beforehand the unit price estimated for every year.

Estimated expenses estimate the total amount of expenses from the fifth year to the 20th year by estimating the legal inspection expenses, general maintenance expenses, general administrative expenses (labor expenses, office expenses), insurance fee, repair expenses every year .
Based on the above, the future value price is calculated from the following formula.

Future Value Price = Power Sales Amount-Expense Total Amount The above prices including the future value price will be explained separately in the comprehensive evaluation section.

[Generation risk assessment]
FIG. 8 shows a method of power generation risk evaluation according to the present embodiment. The power generation risk evaluation can be divided into three stages of document evaluation S21, O & M implementation item evaluation S22, and equipment inspection actual check S23, and these are summarized and a power generation risk result S24 is made.

  FIG. 9 shows the evaluation items of the document evaluation in the power generation risk evaluation. The document evaluation S21 is mainly performed by a document examination. The evaluator accesses the server 1 from the terminal 3 and downloads an evaluation sheet (document) including the evaluation items shown in FIG. 9 from the evaluation item master 31 stored in the database 13. The evaluator assigns evaluation points for each evaluation item in, for example, a 5-step evaluation according to the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (document), and uploads the evaluation results to the database 13 as a result of the evaluation.

  FIG. 10 shows evaluation items of O & M implementation item evaluation in the power generation risk evaluation. The O & M performance item evaluation S22 is performed together with a document examination and a field survey. The evaluator accesses the server 1 from the terminal 3 or the terminal 5 and downloads an evaluation sheet (O & M) including the evaluation items shown in FIG. 10 from the evaluation item master 31 stored in the database 13. In accordance with the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (O & M), the evaluator gives an evaluation point for each evaluation item in, for example, a 5-step evaluation, and uploads it to the database 13 as an evaluation result.

  FIG. 11 shows the evaluation items of the equipment inspection survey in the power generation risk evaluation. The equipment inspection survey S23 is mainly performed by on-site inspection. The evaluator accesses the server 1 from the terminal 5 at the site of the solar power generation facility to be evaluated, and from the evaluation item master 31 stored in the database 13, an evaluation sheet including the evaluation items shown in FIG. Download the inspection). The evaluator assigns evaluation points for each evaluation item in, for example, a 5-step evaluation according to the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (facility inspection), and uploads the evaluation result to the database 13 as an evaluation result. In addition, the evaluator may test and inspect a part of the solar power generation equipment to be evaluated by the test device 6 and upload the evaluation result from the terminal 4 based on the result.

  When each evaluation result of the evaluation sheet (document), the evaluation sheet (O & M) and the evaluation sheet (facility inspection) is uploaded to the evaluation document master 33 in the database 13 in the power generation risk evaluation result S24, the server 1 Total and calculate the movable property comprehensive evaluation score according to a predetermined standard. As an example, weighting is performed for each evaluation item, and it is replaced with a 10-level evaluation index according to the total score of evaluation points.

Disaster risk assessment
FIG. 12 shows a method of disaster risk assessment according to the present embodiment. The disaster risk evaluation can be divided into three stages: evaluation of general information S31, design document examination S32, and evaluation of local information S33. These are summarized and disaster risk result S34 is made.

  FIG. 13 shows evaluation items of general information in disaster risk evaluation. The evaluation S31 of the general information is mainly performed by a written examination. The evaluator accesses the server 1 from the terminal 3 and downloads an evaluation sheet (general information) including the evaluation items shown in FIG. 13 from the evaluation item master 31 stored in the database 13. From the weather data etc. of the reference information master 32 stored in the database 13, the evaluator gives an evaluation point for each evaluation item in, for example, a 5-step evaluation according to the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (general information), It uploads to the database 13 as an evaluation result.

  FIG. 14 shows evaluation items of design document examination in disaster risk evaluation. The design document examination S32 is mainly performed by a document examination. The evaluator accesses the server 1 from the terminal 3 and downloads an evaluation sheet (design document) including the evaluation items shown in FIG. 14 from the evaluation item master 31 stored in the database 13. The evaluator assigns an evaluation point for each evaluation item in, for example, a 5-step evaluation according to the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (design document), and uploads it to the database 13 as an evaluation result.

  FIG. 15 shows evaluation items of the local information in the disaster risk evaluation. The evaluation S33 of the field information is mainly performed by a field survey. The evaluator accesses the server 1 from the terminal 5 at the site of the solar power generation facility to be evaluated, and from the evaluation item master 31 stored in the database 13, the evaluation sheet including the evaluation items shown in FIG. Download the information) The evaluator assigns an evaluation point for each evaluation item in, for example, a 5-step evaluation according to the evaluation method described in the evaluation sheet (local information), and uploads it to the database 13 as an evaluation result.

  In the disaster risk evaluation result S34, the server 1 is evaluated when each evaluation result of the evaluation sheet (general information), the evaluation sheet (design document) and the evaluation sheet (local information) is uploaded to the evaluation document master 33 in the database 13. The points are totaled and the movable property comprehensive evaluation score is calculated according to a predetermined standard. As an example, weighting is performed for each evaluation item, and it is replaced with a 10-level evaluation index according to the total score of evaluation points.

[Comprehensive evaluation]
In FIG. 2, comprehensive evaluation S4 after evaluation of three steps is performed will be described. First, in the server 1, from the evaluation result stored in the evaluation document master 33 of the database 13, the sale expected value price is calculated by the following formula.

Expected sale price value = Future value price × Deviation Deviation is weighted to each of the evaluation points of the movable property evaluation result S15, the power generation risk evaluation result S24, and the disaster risk evaluation result S34, and the total is below the decimal point Of the lower limit of 0.1 to the upper limit of 0.9. Also, the calculated deviation is divided into five stages to be a comprehensive evaluation result.

  By the above, it is possible to perform the business performance evaluation of the business that sells the electric power by the solar power generation facility by the four evaluation prices and the comprehensive evaluation described above, which are the evaluation results of the three stages.

  The movable property evaluation result is the evaluation result of the photovoltaic power generation equipment as a movable property (product), and the result of evaluating the performance and reliability of the hardware and the long-term stability of the hardware based on the business plan are evaluated. It is the result. In addition, the power generation risk evaluation results evaluate the permanence and operational reliability of the business equipment including software. Furthermore, disaster risk assessment results assess the continuity of the business including environmental assessment, compliance efforts, and the way of risk management against unforeseen situations.

  As described above, according to the evaluation result of the three stages, it becomes possible to evaluate the facility for business which is an object that does not fit in the distribution channel, and also evaluate from the operation aspect of the business including the software. For example, a company evaluation can be performed by a comprehensive evaluation integrating these.

  In addition, the disposal price is a price at the time of the collective disposal at the time of evaluation, and is an amount presented by a third party who wishes to purchase. On the other hand, since the future value price is the difference between the power sale income up to 20 years after installation and the estimated cost, if the disposal price is subtracted from the future value price, it will be purchased in the future if a third party purchases it at the time of evaluation. It is a profit that can be obtained. Since the sale value value is a value obtained by adding the power generation risk assessment and the disaster risk assessment to the future value price, the future potential profit of the third party can be more accurately represented as the future value as a business operator. It becomes the amount of money you

  From this, the sale expected value price can be used as a so-called due diligence index when selling all of the business equipment and the sales price of the business equipment. In addition, because evaluation of future business potential is included, it can also be used as a reference for calculating the loan judgment, the loan amount, and the setting amount of property collateral.

  According to the present embodiment, the evaluation from the operation aspect of the business becomes possible based on the evaluation results of the three stages, and the future value as a business operator becomes clear by the calculation of the sales expected value price, the business including the property evaluation. Can provide a business evaluation of the

1 server 2 network 3 to 5 terminals 6 test equipment

The present invention is, in order to achieve such an object, an embodiment of the present invention is a method of evaluating the business of a business operator performing a power generation business with a server connected to a terminal of an evaluator, the server The first terminal of the evaluator who performs the evaluation of the equipment of the business operator from the database, and the test and inspection of the equipment that constitutes the equipment of the business business using the test device, and the evaluation of the equipment that performs the evaluation of the equipment Evaluation items and evaluation methods for movable property evaluation, power generation risk evaluation, and disaster risk evaluation on the third terminal of the evaluator who performs evaluation on the actual site at the terminal 2 and the place where the facilities of the business operator are installed a step of sending the described evaluation sheet, for the first, the evaluation sheet evaluated by the evaluator from the second and third terminal are entered received as the evaluation result, each evaluation sheet, the evaluation point Collection And calculate the future value price by subtracting the total cost of expenses from the power sale amount calculated from the step of converting into a predetermined evaluation index and the power generation amount and the electricity charge rate unit from the time of evaluation to a predetermined term And weighting each of the evaluation indexes converted in each of the evaluation sheets, and multiplying the future value price by the summed decimal factor to calculate the sale expected value price. It is characterized by

Claims (2)

A business performance evaluation method for evaluating the business performance of a business operator performing a power generation business with a server connected to the terminal of the evaluator,
Transmitting to the terminal an evaluation sheet in which evaluation items and evaluation methods for movable property evaluation, power generation risk evaluation and disaster risk evaluation are described from the database of the server;
Receiving, as an evaluation result, an evaluation sheet in which an evaluation by the evaluator is entered from the terminal, totaling the evaluation points for each evaluation sheet, and converting it into a predetermined evaluation index;
Calculating a future value price by subtracting the total amount of expenses from the power sale amount calculated from the power generation amount and the electricity amount charge unit price from the time of evaluation to a predetermined age limit;
Weighting each of the converted evaluation indexes in each of the evaluation sheets, and multiplying the future value price by the total factor after the decimal point to calculate a sale expected value price. How to evaluate business viability. It is a business evaluation system that evaluates the business of a company that operates a power generation business,
A server having a database storing an evaluation sheet in which evaluation items and evaluation methods for mobile property evaluation, power generation risk evaluation, and disaster risk evaluation are described;
And a terminal of an evaluator connected to the server, the terminal receiving the evaluation sheet from the server and transmitting the evaluation sheet having the evaluation written by the evaluator as the evaluation result to the server.
The server is
For each evaluation sheet received from the terminal, the evaluation points are totaled and converted into a predetermined evaluation index,
Calculate the future value price by subtracting the total amount of expenses from the power sale amount calculated from the power generation amount and the electricity rate fee unit price from the time of evaluation to a predetermined age limit,
A business performance evaluation system characterized by weighting each of the evaluation indexes converted in each of the evaluation sheets, and multiplying the future value price by multiplying the coefficient of the decimal point which has been totaled, to calculate the sale expected value price .

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